Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The unfortunate lol-reality would be if this logic is broken because mafia didn't know the thief is Kagemusha.

Which is why both Tony and I should be almost hard-cleared.

[TonyStarkPrime]

But if they had info you’d think they’d have paid attention at some point

[TonyStarkPrime]

The unfortunate lol-reality would be if this logic is broken because mafia didn't know the thief is Kagemusha.

Which is why both Tony and I should be almost hard-cleared.

ok that makes sense actually

[TonyStarkPrime]

As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

And to build on that: I think both Epi and LC would ask in mafia chat what the thief is. They'd figure it out.

[TonyStarkPrime]

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

[TonyStarkPrime]

As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

And to build on that: I think both Epi and LC would ask in mafia chat what the thief is. They'd figure it out.

hence

I don’t think Moto can be a wolf now. I think we shouldn’t kill anyone in the “should be a wolf kill” pool (though if Abigail was actually Kage I’ll hope for a smart bus). I’ll clear Epi/LC/hesitantly Jay for now. Three, maybe four reasonable candidates left, pool of two for the day.

[Long Con]

I am on board with this.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

[Long Con]

And that's also good night from me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yes. If you give me a choice between:

Door #1: weird gambit in a world where people could easily not even catch on

Door #2: kill two people at the same time

Well, I'm gonna open the right door.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And that's also good night from me.

Blessings upon you, town core.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Yes. If you give me a choice between:

Door #1: weird gambit in a world where people could easily not even catch on

Door #2: kill two people at the same time

Well, I'm gonna open the right door.

given that I wasn’t a wolf I didn’t see how tight you could narrow it down (and I’m gonna try to keep myself from knowing to accidentally reveal anything) but if it’s really the 1 in 4 or whatever the clear is definitely more valuable (I don’t think it is)

[TonyStarkPrime]

And it’s only a 1 in 4 for you because you have potential partner equity

[TonyStarkPrime]

Well no you don’t cause of the last minute Abigail Sophia vote on you

[TonyStarkPrime]

You do as the bad partner I guess I should stop talking about it

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m going on a late night walk wake me up when September ends

[TonyStarkPrime]

also I was looking for a picture of that dude the other day cause my friend texted me to ask if I liked dune 2 and I couldn’t find it and I’m only now registering

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The new Ghostbusters movie is bad.

[sig]

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

“Only kinda here”

Excuse me? I’m being very active this game more so than the vast amount of the player base.

This seems like you’re trying to “mech solve” your way to more non mafia kills

[sig]

But lets be real if Jay is town and wolves had the opportunity to get that flip and passed it up, either they’re silly or they had info or they just weren’t around

Which like also clears me along with all the other things that clear me

I’m really leaning more and more towards him being mafia.

[sig]

I don’t really see the reason behind the Falcon vote, but i guess we could say Wilgy death hints at that?

I’ll probably do an NKA, but I also remember Wilgy going after Jay soooo that’s an area to look.

[sig]

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

[Long Con]

How then should we clear people?

[falcon45ca]

Thoughts before the kids pull me away again.

My brain has observed a pattern with Jay that appears wolfy. I will probably require a flip to solve. Do I push for said flip and vote there or allow the opportunity for a Jay solve that's often highly beneficial for town?

Probably should yeet Falc.

No other thoughts.

Oh, Sig is probably town.

I don't really remember much else from my skin so what I advised from D1 still applies.

Just mulling over Wilgy reads for the sake of night kill analysis. It's unlikely he was killed for the right reason, so we can examine the wrong reasons (e.g., feeling threatened or something similar).

Is this why Wilgy was killed?





You are still milquetoast bud. The flavour of whomever is posting with you at the time.






And so, since you are neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth






[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

“Only kinda here”

Excuse me? I’m being very active this game more so than the vast amount of the player base.

This seems like you’re trying to “mech solve” your way to more non mafia kills

I appreciate your engagement, but that second line is just not true.

I don’t care about the third line. Ignoring the setup and valid clearance when it’s there is how an unsolvable game remains unsolvable.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@falcon45ca, what’s milquetoast is grabbing any reference to Wilgy and saying “is this why Wilgt was killed?”

Snore

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For example: it is genuinely very hard to believe that Tony killed Wilgy, because Wilgy is a bad kill. Someone with any mind on the setup doesn’t make that kill.

Ignoring that as “wifom” in Tony’s case would be silly. We take the evidence we’re given.

The same really should apply to me if we have the courage and, well, if we have a mind on the setup.

[falcon45ca]

@falcon45ca, what’s milquetoast is grabbing any reference to Wilgy and saying “is this why Wilgt was killed?”

Snore

Ah, strawman argument




It's not "any reference to Wilgy", it is one specifically where he mentions you being wolfy, and that he states he needs your flip to solve





You're literally mulling over Wilgy's reads for NKA, and that same read has you being A: scum, and B: requiring a flip to solve





You are bland sir. Flavourless on your own. I noticed you backpedaled your SR on Epi & moto once Epi pushed back. You've done that several times w/ several players IIRC

[falcon45ca]

Nearly 300 posts before D3 is even half over, and you want us to believe that if you were Maf you'd have a stranglehold on the thread.




You do

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Nearly 300 posts before D3 is even half over, and you want us to believe that if you were Maf you'd have a stranglehold on the thread.




You do

You’re still ignoring the elephant in the room.

[falcon45ca]

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

[falcon45ca]

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

What is this happy horseshit?

We killed Scotty because he said we're good? We killed Wilgy because he said we're bad?

You need a new Magic 8 Ball.

He said you're less good than anyone else said you were.

I probably do need a new Magic 8 Ball. Doing my best here.

Town reads:
Tony
Simon
Falcon
Wilgy

Townlean:
Moto
Epi

Scumlean:
JJJ
Long con

SCUMREAD:
Princess Abbi

TALK MORE:
Lorab
Sig
Abbi sophia

Referring to this, to be clear.

I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

Talk to me about why you specifically tied me with moto in your scenario rather than Long Con.

Because Wilgy said it, and I had thought about it at least once prior. You and motobot fit together like a glove if I ignore the things that make you look like civilians on your own. I have no good reason to say that about Long Con and motobot. It's also possible, just not as overt.

I could just as easily (more easily) say "JJJ and LC" killed Scotty. It'd be a less radical theory.

That's similar to what I was just discussing with LC.

We might need a radical theory. Generic theories are 0 for 2, and I have zero confidence about staying the course.

If this constitutes as evidence, no wonder OJ wasn't found guilty

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

We spent an hour discussing that evidence last night. Do you understand why DrWilgy is a poor kill choice? Don’t give me the conspiracy theory wifom crap (exactly why I don’t gambit), and look at the facts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

No, that is not the evidence. Calling those posts evidence doesn’t even make sense.

You’re literally demonstrating why I voted for you. You don’t understand the problem.

[falcon45ca]

One thing I will say and then refuse to expand on. Anyone is free to explore for themselves though.

DrWilgy is a strange kill following Abigail Sophia's flip.

Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

I don't think it's a good strategy to avoid discussing something like that, because I doubt it's likely they don't know.

Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

I mean, by that logic, we have a POE of five. I still think Epi's sons look like civilians. So...

falcon, LoRab, sig

How do we feel about that?

And then of course, he does expand





Is this the stranglehold of which Jay warned he'd do as Maf...he's literally doing it to us right in front of our eyes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

“Stranglehold”

It’s seeing evidence and adopting it. It’s “solving”.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

I appreciate sig at least referring to it as a "crazy gambit". sig demonstrates understanding of the problem. It's human nature to explore the wifom, but at least he knows it'd have to be a gambit.

[LoRab]

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

Responding to all your points in this quote and following. While my posting has missed a ton, I’ve read everything. And, I also agree with your logic on this in general.

I agree that falcon is a good choice for a vote. Especially after his response to the accusation.

[LoRab]

Meant to add:

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

[falcon45ca]

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

We spent an hour discussing that evidence last night. Do you understand why DrWilgy is a poor kill choice? Don’t give me the conspiracy theory wifom crap (exactly why I don’t gambit), and look at the facts.

Hmmmm...OK




[VOTE: moto] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Responding to all your points in this quote and following. While my posting has missed a ton, I’ve read everything. And, I also agree with your logic on this in general.

I agree that falcon is a good choice for a vote. Especially after his response to the accusation.

Who do you think fits the bill other than falcon? It'd have to be the whole mafia team.

[TonyStarkPrime]

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

it's been a bit hard to solve particularly around the kids and a bunch of people who have had somewhat limited thread impact, especially now that we're taking epi and LC as clears (I think a bit? prematurely) and moving from there. Do I think Jay should be looking into epi/lc? yeah, I do. Epi's a very good player but he's not typically as mechanically minded. His strong preference would be to play the game straight and not worry about the situation. If his partner were, say, Moto -- well, there'd be no one on the team who'd have a strong inclination towards making "correct" kills.

[TonyStarkPrime]

But I agree with Jay, I just don't think it's prudent to consider those teams.

[falcon45ca]

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

it's been a bit hard to solve particularly around the kids and a bunch of people who have had somewhat limited thread impact, especially now that we're taking epi and LC as clears (I think a bit? prematurely) and moving from there. Do I think Jay should be looking into epi/lc? yeah, I do. Epi's a very good player but he's not typically as mechanically minded. His strong preference would be to play the game straight and not worry about the situation. If his partner were, say, Moto -- well, there'd be no one on the team who'd have a strong inclination towards making "correct" kills.

Mindmeld

[TonyStarkPrime]

no, not mindmeld

[TonyStarkPrime]

i mean yeah I wrote what you were thinking but also

[TonyStarkPrime]

vote: lorab I guess

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don’t entirely discount Epignosis (or Long Con), because I agree it’s possible. I need an extra step for them (to assume they’d figure it out in BTSC). That’s why they’re not Tony clear.

I consider this kill a significant blunder, so accusing anyone of it is at least somewhat implying “you don’t know what you’re doing”. That’s a tough pill to swallow especially for those two long-time Cindies Kate. But I am open to the theory if someone thinks it’s the right theory.