Hey there! So it seems I did make it back before the deadline.
I have many posts to reply to... so, just a warning. This likely won't be a short post.
juliets wrote:MovingPictures07 wrote:juliets wrote:rip llama. I became convinced that Made was not lying and that you were trying to take him down. Then when you made you comment about Mongoose really lying it furthered my bad feeling, throwing a friend under the bus to get out of a lynch. I couldn't see a civ doing that. Even with that though I should've given more thought to you both (you and Made) being civ.
I agree with FZ. that if Made is civ there are baddies on his list of voters. I also agree that TH seemed genuine yesterday defending Made and so he is a potential for me to give a vote to. Others are as well though so I'm going to think on it a little more before I vote.
Wait, what? You're lying.
juliets wrote:I also sent Epi the question and recieved an answer, and based on that answer can determine Made is a liar. I know there is an argument that says even if he lied about that he may not be bad but I just don't see it that way. Why would a civ lie about that? To get a response? What kind of response? And remember how he said he had some kind of plan if Epi screwed him (not his words but I'm pretty sure I'm paraphrasing)? I thought that was pingy when he said it. So now lets see if he comes up with a reason Epi would not tell us the truth. So, I'm going to go ahead and vote for Made and then if he comes on and defends it to the point I believe him, or something even more concrete comes out about someone else I will change my vote.
Speaking of votes, several people have named DF as someone who could be bad. I read everything he's posted which isn't much and nothing jumped out at me. What is the crux of the argument DF is a baddie? I tried to search to see exactly what people have said about him but you can't search two letters. I also tried to search 'llama' to try and understand a little more about the case against him but it said llama was a word that was too common. Ha! Common?? But anyway, whats up with the DF suspicion?
linky i see made replied so I will read his response before I vote and if there is anything that makes me back down I just won't vote
This was your LAST post before your "Rip llama" post.
I became convinced Made was not lying by things that were said after my post including Mades defenses and TH's defending. Note in my post I said if I read Mades post and it made me pause I would not vote for him. I could not post a vote post because Dom had not posted. Also, if I remember correctly llama's post about Mongoose was also after my post (his second post about Mongoose). This is not lying this is changing one's mind. And I am not afraid of being closely looked at because I am civ, not bad or indy. Maybe Boe would like to check my statement.
Juliets, thanks for clarifying. I realize now I should have used different language -- "I THINK you're lying" v. "You're lying". Because what I've learned from Cars and other games is that I really just don't know whether you're lying, despite if I really feel like you are.
I understand your reasoning now, but I just wonder why you weren't more transparent with that when you were able to post after the contest was over.
It's odd because you felt strongly about Made lying, but you then voted Llama, so it stuck out to me.
How do you feel about Made now?
DharmaHelper wrote:I hate this. I don't like it one bit.
We don't know Made's alignment.
Clearly not everyone in that list of Llama voters is bad. So why punish every single one by not giving any of them your vote? This same question goes to others who have said the same sentiment. It's a BS way to blame someone else and seem like you're being civvie minded.
This pushes DH way up my list to be honest.
Of course not everyone on that list is a baddie. But, statistically, it is more likely that there is a baddie or more than one baddie within that set of voters, if (like myself) you think Made is bad and there was a save attempt...made....to protect him.
Even if I don't suspect every single one of those voters, I don't want to walk into a minefield and risk accidentally giving my vote (and potentially giving the wand) to a baddie.
Fair enough. We will just have to agree to disagree, since I don't feel about Made as you do. However, I do entertain that he is bad. My problem with Made being baddie is that he's essentially committed suicide and brought all kinds of attention to himself for seemingly no benefit whatsoever. What benefit would he have in being a baddie and lying about what he is saying?
zeek wrote:Llama was a civ and Made's alignment is unknown. I am far more comfortable voting for somebody who voted for Made purely because we know for certain they weren't trying to save a teammate.
MP, you said earlier you don't trust me. Who do you trust?
Civilians vote civilians all the time.
What about the MM v. DH vote? We know MM was civilian. DH's alignment is unknown. Why aren't you factoring that into your analysis at all?
I don't trust anyone, frankly. I do, however, at the moment feel most relatively OK about Turnip Head, reywaS, and S~V~S.
DharmaHelper wrote:I'm actually surprised people haven't given SVS the wand. Out of everyone, she seems to be the safest civvie bet.
Interesting that you say this, since catching up I am getting relatively good feelings from S~V~S as well. Not that I hadn't before this, but... I am always wary about trusting S~V~S right off the bat due to my inability to read her in the past.
Whom do you feel is most worthy of looking at re: baddieness, besides Made?
FZ. wrote:MovingPictures07 wrote:
FZ. wrote:Sorry, llama
Not going to say RIP because I hate when people wrongfully lynch me and then just go on like it's nothing, because it annoys the hell out of me (and yeah, I know, it's just a game). I apologize. I shouldn't have voted for you when I wasn't feeling that sure, but I didn't like the votes on Made.
To be honest, I think that if like I believe Made is a civ, then there's more chance to find baddies on his list of voters because it was easier to excuse a vote for him. I get why no one wants to give the wand to those on llama's lynch, but we all make mistakes.
I want to give the wand to TH, but I'm hesitant. I felt his actions were genuine last day, but who knows, maybe I'm wrong. I'll think about this a little more
What do you think of me? I have two votes already. TH does not. TH also is one of those votes.
Not sure yet. It's a possibility. The post below the one I quoted where you go after Juliets like that reminds me of how you went after me in that game (where I was a civ, but you truly believed it), so you seem more civvie like.
Can I ask a general question? Out of all the players here, who would you all say is the best at sniffing out baddies?
I was curious since you and I seem to always have strong opinions of each other. It's interesting because I'm not sure what I think of you yet either. You do seem a bit less intense this game thus far, but then again, I could say the same about myself.
The best at sniffing out baddies? Hmmmm. Depends. But I would say LC, timmer, Turnip Head, reywaS, and Russtifinko have some good instincts when they are civilian. There are others too, but those were the top 5 that came to my mind.
DharmaHelper wrote:Roxy wrote:DH what evidence is there that says Made was being saved? I thought the case against him had very little merit tbh it is the reason why my vote did not go to Made.
So what actual evidence is there that you see that leads you to your definite conclusion?
The closeness of the llama/Made vote totals
The subtle support Made received several times
The case against llama being (in my view) a touch trumped up
What about the lynch on D1 that involved you, MM, and Boomslang? Why did you not receive any votes yesterday? You and MM tied. Why are you not bad and Made is?
zeek wrote:Can we all just acknowledge how much emphasis Epi puts on game balance? Good, now lets think about how Boddy hasn't blackmailed Made, because Made could not tell us if that had happened... cool, now lets think about an unknown blackmailer whose blackmailing can be revealed. Seem fair? Seem balanced? Not in my opinion.
This reminds me of the argument that we used to our advantage in DW about how my role (The Doctor) could never be recruited.
The truth is we don't know what could possibly go on this game, especially since it's a Champions game.
Nonetheless, I understand you raise a good counterpoint.
How do you feel about the possibilities regarding Made that I brought up previously?
1) Made info dumped and got in trouble with Epig, but this hasn't been confirmed due to host interference.
2) Made is cursed. Of course, he would have to argue he wasn't cursed.
3) Made is a civilian, lying, because he's pulling a gambit. Even though almost no player would do this, I could see Made doing it.
Of course, I realize 4) is that Made is a baddie and lying, and I do wonder if this is the case, but I don't understand why everyone is so convinced it is true. What benefit does Made have in this scenario? He brought so much attention unnecessarily to himself. The only reason I would think he would do this is if he is on a baddie team with someone who was really hot and wanted to take attention away from them -- someone such as Boomslang or DH.
Dom wrote:juliets wrote:rip llama. I became convinced that Made was not lying and that you were trying to take him down. Then when you made you comment about Mongoose really lying it furthered my bad feeling, throwing a friend under the bus to get out of a lynch. I couldn't see a civ doing that. Even with that though I should've given more thought to you both (you and Made) being civ.
I agree with FZ. that if Made is civ there are baddies on his list of voters. I also agree that TH seemed genuine yesterday defending Made and so he is a potential for me to give a vote to. Others are as well though so I'm going to think on it a little more before I vote.
We know Llama is civ, why aren't there baddies on his list of voters?
I'm not advocating for a witch hunt of Llama voters, but I am using the same logic to reach that conclusion-- one that FZ opposes, apparently. I find that odd, Juliets.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dom wrote:MovingPictures07 wrote:Dom wrote:I'm just curious about why Mongoose picked me, but it's a very minor ping.
Oh, okay. Yeah, I am interested to hear that as well, since I'm pretty sure she never mentioned you or zeek before that post.
Personally, if I was to vote anyone other than myself for this poll... at the moment I'm leaning Turnip Head. I know he can be an incredibly brilliant baddie, but I have received nothing but good vibes from him so far this game. Despite that, I am not too sure how I feel about a lot of players, so this will force me to consider other options as well.
MP, what do you make of Llama being a civvie?
I think Made might be a baddie, especially since Llama ended up being civvie. I suspect Boom more, but man, it makes it harder for me to give Made the BOTD.
What do I make of it? It was a possibility I considered. I thought he was bad. I'm disappointed he wasn't. I don't know what else there is to make of it. Made could still easily be a civilian. He could also be bad.
I don't understand how Made's alignment had anything to do with Llama's. Other than a possible "save attempt", which we have no reason to believe happened here more than any other possible lynch with two main participants -- who is to say they aren't BOTH civilian and baddies bandwagoned onto both of them?
Can you explain that?
Can I explain what?
I think it's possible that Made was saved. Possible, yes. I wanted to know what you think of that possibility.
You obviously think very lowly of it. If you already don't trust Made, can you see how this might look? I don't see why you're being so aggressive here.
MovingPictures07 wrote:DH, juliets, and DFaraday need to be very closely examined, IMO.
I also do not like the fact that Dom has three votes. Why are people trusting him?
. . . oh?
Ok?
Are you the trust police?
I entertain that Made could have been saved. I also entertain that DH could have been saved on D1. Or that Boomslang was. Why do people feel so strongly that Made was over either of those two?
I don't feel I'm being unnecessarily aggressive. But I suppose that's my go-to mafia behavior, as you are well aware.
Where did I say I was the trust police? I'm allowed to voice my opinion. You are high on my possible suspects list. I was merely asking why people trust you because I have seen no reason to do so whatsoever.
zeek wrote:Snow Dog wrote:I think FZ makes very good points. I didn't vote Made simply because I don't see the logic of his actions if he was bad. Plus he seems to be a player that people are always suspicious of. Having said that I don't know who to vote the wand to.
Exactly why I think this makes more sense if Made is bad. He's used to getting suspected and going out early. I think he's just rolled the dice and tried something different.
I just think most people are giving him way too much benefit of the doubt.
What happens if we lynch him and he flips civilian? How would this affect how you view other players?
FZ. wrote:zeek wrote:Snow Dog wrote:I think FZ makes very good points. I didn't vote Made simply because I don't see the logic of his actions if he was bad. Plus he seems to be a player that people are always suspicious of. Having said that I don't know who to vote the wand to.
Exactly why I think this makes more sense if Made is bad. He's used to getting suspected and going out early. I think he's just rolled the dice and tried something different.
I just think most people are giving him way too much benefit of the doubt.
The thing that bothers me the most is the part where Made asked Epig if he can share it and he said yes. The default here is no. Made knows this too. Just by telling us this, it automatically makes people suspicious of him. If I'm were a baddie, this is something I just wouldn't do. Again, only reason to do so is to gain something that is not at face value. Gaining credibility as a civ is just not worth it, and the fact he got so many votes is a proof of it.
linki: Agree with it all
Thank you. I agree with this viewpoint. I don't understand the benefit.
However, FZ., what do you feel about the only scenario I can fathom: to draw attention away from a baddie teammate who was getting heat? How do you feel about DH?
bea wrote:also - alex - do you find it sketchy that so many people are putting their trust in you?
I'm not sure if I feel it is sketchy. I am definitely surprised; I did not expect it at all. I don't necessarily understand the benefit of baddies voting for me unless they're trying to gain cred or something, but even then, there are multiple baddie teams. However, I do wonder if some of the votes are trying to avoid serious questioning, such as Boomslang, Russtifinko, etc. They don't really explain why I deserve their votes. So that does raise my eyebrow.
But I am pleased, since I promise I will put it to good use if I do win.
Before leaving the thread earlier, I thought that Daisy's vouch for me would be the main reason that others would even follow suit, but oddly no one has mentioned that. She has a track record of bringing me down as a baddie in every game in recent memory that we've played together. I think the only game I've really tricked her in since the conception of this site was MOTU, but that's partially because I helped take her out early.
What do you think of them? Do you think it's sketchy?
Regarding these posts:
S~V~S wrote:FZ. wrote:zeek wrote:I'd prefer Dom to have the wand over MP. I just feel as though if this was Who MP would be all over Made right now. So I'll switch to Dom if he has a better chance at the wand.
You have a point there. MP is the king of "he slipped- he's a baddie". No matter Made's alliance, civ MP should have been all over him.
Bea, yeah, I'm passionate. I make mistakes, but I don't think I make them more than any other player (
I'll just remind you that while I was suspicious of you and trusted Kitty, you and Roxy were suspicious of me and trusted Ash). I just take them to heart more. I really hate lynching a civ, hence my strong apology before.
linki: good question. I think the only person he voiced suspicion for, was DH, and it was strong
MP used to be the king of analysis & appraisal. I think he had more time back in the day. He jumps to conclusions more than he used to, bad or good, such as suspecting people due to slips. Like I do always, lol. That big post felt like old MP to me. Analytical and thought out (even though it was not correct re Llama). But the jumping on baddie slips etc. is not the style I always associated with MP, although admittedly it IS the style he has been playing in more recently, true. We all evolve.
Linki, yeah, I am not sure what anyone means by "staunch trust of Dom". I tend to have a total blind spot re Dom, and he is still up in the air for me.
FZ. wrote:bea wrote:FZ. wrote:zeek wrote:I'd prefer Dom to have the wand over MP. I just feel as though if this was Who MP would be all over Made right now. So I'll switch to Dom if he has a better chance at the wand.
You have a point there. MP is the king of "he slipped- he's a baddie". No matter Made's alliance, civ MP should have been all over him.
Bea, yeah, I'm passionate. I make mistakes, but I don't think I make them more than any other player (
I'll just remind you that while I was suspicious of you and trusted Kitty, you and Roxy were suspicious of me and trusted Ash). I just take them to heart more. I really hate lynching a civ, hence my strong apology before.
linki: good question. I think the only person he voiced suspicion for, was DH, and it was strong
I don't think you make them any more than any other player either. But I think passion can sometimes be misconstrued as having nefarious reasons and I wanted to point out the difference.
yea - we were snowed by ash. They did a great job of divide and conquer in that game!
I know what a passionate civ you are. I've seen it so many times. I know you really do feel badly when you are a civ and you lynch another civ. I didn't want that point to go unnoticed. Especially when people who are less familiar with your play style were starting to suspect you for it.
linki - blooper! hi! How's it? What do you think about everyone else? Who are you trusting most obviously besides MP since you just voted him? - Who are you trusting least? Why? What do you think about what's been going on? Cuz things are going on now...
linkie more - zeek - do you mean that you think trust in dom is less/more than it should be vs trust in mp? or LC?
Oh, Okay. Thanks, I appreciate it
At this point, I have a vote, but I don't know who to give it to yet. MP has barely been here. I don't get the trust everyone is showing toward him. Not saying he's a baddie, but what has he done to gain that trust? Dom, I started out suspecting him but lately it's gone down. Still, not enough to make me give him the vote. Anyone else will just be pointless.
linki: I've played a few games with MP lately where he was all over someone who allegedly slipped, and wouldn't hear anything else. Once he decided it was a slip, he was on a crusade. Maybe it's different this time because he read it after it was analysed and not "live", I don't know.
S~V~S wrote:FZ. wrote:
linki: I've played a few games with MP lately where he was all over someone who allegedly slipped, and wouldn't hear anything else. Once he decided it was a slip, he was on a crusade. Maybe it's different this time because he read it after it was analysed and not "live", I don't know.
"Lately" agreed, he has been more about passion. Perhaps the enforced down time due to the posting restrictions, and the "read only" mode from moving slowed him down a bit. But while I certainly could be wrong, this really looks like the civ MP of old. Perhaps the memory of *that guy* is why I tend to suspect MP more often than not these days; he seems hastier in general than I recall.
Not sure about other people, but that is why i trust MP as much as I trust anyone in this game. Perhaps i should say that I distrust him less than the rest of the lot of you
I would say S~V~S expresses truth here, and I am impressed at her insight regarding my mafia behavior.
The main differences between my behavior this game and my behavior exercised in games over the past half a year or so are:
- My frequency of reading posts and being in the thread. This is crucial. Over the past semester, I was here in San Antonio by myself, dealing with the first semester of a very intense PhD program, and all my time was my own besides when I had classes and meetings, even if I was very busy. This game I was busy travelling and have been splitting my time between Daisy, getting her settled, etc. Essentially, before I would frequent the thread at least 5 times a day. Now? Every time I've posted has been me reading the thread, so I've been in the thread less. This is a return to a thread visitation frequency that was more typical of pre-PhD.
- I am specifically keeping in mind my failures in previous recent games, particularly Cars, where I dominated the thread and focused on ridiculous alleged slips, developing unnecessary tunnel vision. I am trying to better balance following my convictions and feelings, while also considering every possibility, something I feel I've gone away from in the last half a year as well.
zeek wrote:Night is ending in ten mins isn't it? Alarm isn't far away.
I don't have much trust in anyone at the moment. LC, Dom and S~V~S are probably the three I trust the most right now.
I just don't see what it is MP has done to qualify for such trust. He's easy to trust, I get that, but that'sexactly why I'm wary of him.
Why those three? Especially LC and Dom.
You think I'm easy to trust?
Long Con wrote:S~V~S wrote:Although personal reads etc. will have less & less bearing as we go along due to Tyler.
I don't think so, Tyler doesn't recruit in a game-altering kind of way.
This is my understanding as well. I don't think Tyler affects anything other than his own win condition by recruiting.
Linki that I'm not reading since I'm leaving the thread now, sorry folks.
Seemingly in MP, but not Dom.
diggz says hi too.
)
I think 
Keeps me safe, regardless of who I am. 
that post is so big