Re: [DAY 14] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 2:35 am
Oh! And just to be sure MM gets to see that, I rescind my permission for Day 14 to end early.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
And the heat goes on.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Day 14 continues.
Russtifinko wrote:(1) I played the worst baddie game in history, bussing teammates left and right when it stopped me from using my role power and made no sense to do so. Rico also played a pretty terrible game as a civ.
I'm not buying what you're selling Russ. You and Ricochet are in the exact same scenario right now, with the only difference being your role. Yet it's amazing the difference in outlooks you've provided in these two alternative possibilities here.Russtifinko wrote:(2): Rico played a prototypical baddie game where he bussed teammates only when he thought it was absolutely necessary, and did an damned impressive job keeping us guessing up until this point. I played a pretty solid civ game with a few notable holes (e.g. tunneling motel and missing Floyd). You guys can decide which is more likely.
Pepsi doesn't go well with omelette.Ricochet wrote:Morning. Fell asleep again. Grabbing my cup of Pepsi and making myself an omelette and will reply afterwards.
And the heat goes on.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Day 14 continues.
Everything must go well with Pepsi in the morning or else I won't go well with anything.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Pepsi doesn't go well with omelette.Ricochet wrote:Morning. Fell asleep again. Grabbing my cup of Pepsi and making myself an omelette and will reply afterwards.
And the heat goes on.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Day 14 continues.
Russtifinko wrote:I realize it looks like I harped on the Wilgy thing a lot here. I realize that a connection to Wilgy in and of itself is not the strongest part of my case. However, I fixated on it a bit because it's just mind-boggling to me that his case on me is "You voted with Wilgy to get 3 baddies" when, if you count the one-off nothing vote as "with Wilgy", 6 times! (5 if you don't count it). He got one baddie, but again, he's awful proud of it. Two of the other times he voted for Wilgy, and not once did he voice any nervousness about voting repeatedly with a guy who ostensibly remained a suspect all game long but was never pursued. To reiterate, his case is "Russ voted with Wilgy to kill baddies 3 times and has no other similarities with Wilgy", while his own votes show a relation to Wilgy a remarkable 75% of the time Wilgy was alive.
Stop fixating on a case that you either clearly don't understand or you intentionally misinterpret! I've explained already the purpose of my end of Night 12 analysis and you keep being one-note about it. I did not make the end of Night 12 vote analysis to reach such a conclusion, as the one you state. I did not reach any conclusion off of it, so how can you say it's "my case on you". I can't reach a conclusion in an analysis that is about how extremely difficult it is to reach a conclusion in this analysis. Snake eating its own tail faulty logic.Russtifinko wrote:his case on me is "You voted with Wilgy to get 3 baddies" when, if you count the one-off nothing vote as "with Wilgy", 6 times! (5 if you don't count it).
Russtifinko wrote:4:21am on Tesday, Oct 13, soft defense of Mac from Golden (and a criticism of a towered of JJJ thrown in for good measure)
Asking people to justify their votes towards a player is soft defending, once that player flips mafia. Tinfoil. Probably meant to serve your smear intentions.Russtifinko wrote:Less than an hour later, 2:01pm Tuesday, Oct 13th, soft defends Mac from Golden again:
I can't remember off the top of my head who acted surprised or was wary of MacDougall's Sorsha lynch mentality first, but yeah, what you quoted was exactly me being unnerved by Mac suddenly bringing up such an argument on the table. It's a normal reaction.Russtifinko wrote:1:19pm on Tuesday, Oct 13th, suspects Macdougall, or at least the point I brought up about Mac saying lynching townies is ok:
Again, not defending as much as keeping grasp on logic when assessing what suspicions in the thread are based on. Matt's SK theory on Mac did not hold much ground, which even you agree on. The interpretations that it was "defending" and "desire to get heat off a baddie" are just convenient post-flip misconstruing on this. Even JJJ, on Day 6, despite his strongest townread on Mac, criticised him at a point when Mac had gone off rails with a theory not making sense, making JJJ say "nope, that's a stretch and I can't work with that or accept it". Does it make him bad? No, it makes him having followed logic in assessing what is thrown in the talk bowl. Same as I did. I never accepted or hunted Mac for Matt's angle, so how can this say anything of me being bad or not?Russtifinko wrote:Day 5, he spent a lot of time defending Mac from Matt F's theory, which I think we can now all agree was baloney but was actually getting some amount of heat onto Mac.
Here's where I think you get a bit slimey. You only interpret only the timing of my vote, but disregard everything I did on that Day. I did not "hop on a lynch train". I pushed that lynch train further from where it was stationed, since the previous Days, as soon as that Day phase broke. This is entirely incompatible with you claiming I judged a right timing when to hop on a bus to squash Mac as a teammate.Russtifinko wrote:Day 6, however, he was suddenly second to hop on the lynch train.
Rico bussed Wilgy requires confirmation or an actual case from you on Wilgy being bad. Where is that knowledge or where did you extract it from?Russtifinko wrote:Maybe "do it fast and hard" is a bit dramatic there, since Rico only actually truly bussed once. I got a little caught up in the case, and I rescind it. To clarify, I think he lightly bussed Wilgy and truly bussed Mac when it was clear Mac was going to go down within the next 1-2 days for the credit.
It doesn't make any sense. The first sentence is not entirely true, because Mac being up for lynch was not a given until on D6 (to which, ahem, I contributed) and because Mac still had a counterwagon shot of surviving until the bitter end of that D6. The Drugs association in the second sentence makes no sense.Russtifinko wrote: Keep in mind, Rico also only voted a baddie who had an actual chance to be lynched on one even Day. If he's Drugs, that makes good good sense.
My call on Diiny, just like my call on Mac, is precisely the proof by which the others should trust me and to carry on with the plan in order for town to win this lylo.Russtifinko wrote: I think there's plenty to go on here, but if I had more time I'd do a more extensive analysis of his recent stuff, like how I think he's using credit from the Diiny lynch to present himself as civ and win your trust so he could have a shot at winning in exactly this lylo situation.
Same faulty argument as it ever was. If you're so desperately cling on to it, it's lazy and weak on your behalf.Russtifinko wrote: Further evidence he's trying to ride the cred wave: his case on me is about as lazy and weak as you can get for a guy who's written 25 pages of stuff in a game.
Can't help noticing JJJ is finally back in the circle of people you care about. Back 6 or 7 hours ago it was "MM's vote is the only one that matters.Russtifinko wrote: I'm gonna close here because I desperately need to sleep, but I'll say this to JJJ and MM as a final point
Sorry, but that's not true. I think you played an excellent baddie game by king bussing. Yeah, I get what you're saying, I'm not insensitive to someone using the "would I be this dumb" argument, even I used it when faced with accusations about hard defending LC or going cannibal on Mac as my own teammate.Russtifinko wrote: You both know Rico and I to some extent as mafia players. To me this comes down to one of 2 theories: (1) I played the worst baddie game in history, bussing teammates left and right when it stopped me from using my role power and made no sense to do so. Rico also played a pretty terrible game as a civ.
What's stopping me from playing the "how dumb would I be, as baddie, to have never bussed Floyd and Bullzeye when I had potential decisive votes on them" card, just like you did?Russtifinko wrote: Or (2): Rico played a prototypical baddie game where he bussed teammates only when he thought it was absolutely necessary, and did an damned impressive job keeping us guessing up until this point. I played a pretty solid civ game with a few notable holes (e.g. tunneling motel and missing Floyd). You guys can decide which is more likely.
Marsh, could you point to the moment in Russ's posts which inspired this confident statement from you? You've been at least entertaining alternative possibilities, so I'd just like to see what pushed your confidence to this level.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Yup, my vote's not moving. Russtifinko is definitely bad, and the final one.
What??????? Again, this is EXACTLY my point. EVERYONE wants the SK dead, so the fact that you helped get him says nothing whatsoever about your alignment. That you're presenting it as such is ludicrous and you know it. And your Mac "call" was one baddie in a game with 7. What do you want, a medal?Ricochet wrote:My call on Diiny, just like my call on Mac, is precisely the proof by which the others should trust me and to carry on with the plan in order for town to win this lylo.
I think it's fair to say his Day 2 vote for Wilgy is suspicious. Its throwaway placement is similar to Bullzeye's solo vote for MM on the same day in that it was removed from the primary wagons in a close tally that resulted in a mafia lynch.Russtifinko wrote:Day 2, he voted Wilgy alone. To me, that vote looks super bad for two reasons, and I'm surprised I didn't see it before. I wasn't looking all that closely at Rico, and it's looking to me now like I should have been. (1) It was obviously a nothing vote, in a very tight lynch where we ended up getting a baddie. That looks bad in and of itself, but (2) it was on Wilgy, which looks like one of the best chances for a meaningless distancing vote I've seen. If Wilgy got lynched later, he could say "Oh, look, I suspected him on D2, so it doesn't matter that I didn't vote for LC that day." It also doesn't match his apparent Day 0 trust of Wilgy. To be fair, it did come from this post:
in which he doesn't like that Wilgy voted BWT on D1. However, he never pursues this further, never develops the suspicion, and it comes off slightly NO U-y, so it's reasonable to assume he never planned on trying to get Wilgy lynched for it. His D2 vote looks weak as a result, hence my theory that it was distancing.Ricochet wrote:I try to make myself clear. I didn't outright claim from the beginning how different I'll play, what I did was explaining myself after the differences were picked up on by others, both in the Day 0 thread and here. I don't know what was I supposed to declar before the beginning of the game, although even in sign ups I gave a first taste of this.DrWilgy wrote:Before any quotes, I'd like to point out an initial suspicion. It never sits right with me when someone claims that they will be changing and/or playing with a different style after role cards have already been distributed. This applies to Rico, and BWT. I'm not going to go back and try to quote the comment because I'm pretty sure it was Day 0. Rico stated that he'd be more zany and BWT followed suit, almost immediately after Rico. I do not recall BWT's reasoning for claiming a more zany (zanier? zaniest? are those actual words? they don't sit right with me.) and would like to hear about this. Also, someone correct me if my memory of Day 0 events are failing me.
I can't comment on BWT's choice, so far he's not even too focused on this, pulling nothing more than a few quotes, from the same highly popular songs. Epigone, at best.![]()
I don't follow you on this point. Why does it look better for Rico to have been in a wagon with one confirmed mafia and another player you seem to think was mafia -- particularly a counterwagon to the lynch of that confirmed mafia?Russtifinko wrote:Day 8, he voted MM in a very tight lynch - with Floyd and Wilgy. This one is interesting, because barring any influence by Drugs (and it seems most likely Drugs had only managed to drag Devin at this point), those 4 votes look tied with Floyd for the lead but they really aren't, a point which makes his vote look somewhat less bad.
You think he elected to softly distance from one team mate while a different team mate was lynched? If town credit is the treasure, then I'd think the bus would be more productive -- or at least seem that way to a person with a mafia mindset. I suppose it's debatable.Russtifinko wrote:He voted with Wilgy again on Day 9, for sig, and then made a nothing vote for Wilgy on Day 11, when we got Bullzeye, which again looks very much like distancing. Day 12 he also voted with Wilgy, who was once again one of his top suspects, for MM, who we now know to be super important.
Yes, this is true enough. Rico's moves against Diiny on Day 13 do nothing at all to affect my read on him -- both townies and mafia have the same motives and methods at their disposal to hunt for the serial killer.Russtifinko wrote:He did vote Diiny, and early, yesterday, but he's sure crowed about how civ it makes him a lot, hasn't he? Both baddies and civs wanted someone with 2 NK's dead - it'd be too much of a wild card (and have too high a chance of winning on its own) to be allowed to survive.
You don't seem to think his case, at least the portion based on your voting connection with Wilgy, is a strong one. His voting connection with Wilgy is the primary basis of this first post you've made to build a case against him. I can understand if you wish to highlight examples of hypocrisy, but that doesn't seem to be your primary objective here. You're casting suspicion upon him at least in part due to his connectivity with Wilgy -- suggesting the hypocrisy might be two-way.Russtifinko wrote:I realize it looks like I harped on the Wilgy thing a lot here. I realize that a connection to Wilgy in and of itself is not the strongest part of my case. However, I fixated on it a bit because it's just mind-boggling to me that his case on me is "You voted with Wilgy to get 3 baddies" when, if you count the one-off nothing vote as "with Wilgy", 6 times! (5 if you don't count it). He got one baddie, but again, he's awful proud of it. Two of the other times he voted for Wilgy, and not once did he voice any nervousness about voting repeatedly with a guy who ostensibly remained a suspect all game long but was never pursued. To reiterate, his case is "Russ voted with Wilgy to kill baddies 3 times and has no other similarities with Wilgy", while his own votes show a relation to Wilgy a remarkable 75% of the time Wilgy was alive.
Drugs performed the most recent kill attempt, so that role is surely still in this game. Thus it is the final baddie in all scenarios in which there is only one baddie remaining. This is a logical deduction, not an assumption. If there are two baddies remaining, then Drugs must still be alive albeit not as the "final" baddie.Russtifinko wrote:Quick reply as I'm headed out the door to work. Rico, the idea that Wilgy isn't proven bad is a major point in your posts above, but you yourself started from this assumption in your case on me earlier today. Make the assumption or don't, but don't say you can make it to case me and I can't make it to case you. You've also made the assumption (as has MM) that Drugs is the final baddie role, so I went from that starting point as well. Doesn't make it true, but since you and MM are free to assume it, don't tell me doing so makes me bad.
I do not agree that Rico's question to Golden was a soft defense. I do not think his criticism of me (which isn't quite criticism) is relevant to this discussion -- for what good measure have you deemed it necessary for inclusion?Russtifinko wrote:Day 4, Rico had Mac and Wilgy as his top two town reads.
4:21am on Tesday, Oct 13, soft defense of Mac from Golden (and a criticism of a towered of JJJ thrown in for good measure):
I believe it's possible for Russtifinko to genuinely feel this way about Rico's treatment of Mac and Wilgy. Two problems hinder me from accepting this as a genuine case though:Russtifinko wrote:So, to reiterate, according to Rico Wilgy was good Day 0, bad Days 1-2, his second highest skittle civ read Day 4 and at least good enough to vote with 6 of the next 7 days, and then bad from that point on, when other people, led by JJJ, were starting to eye Wilgy pretty hard. Mac was not commented on until he was Rico's top skittle civ read on Day 4 (again, see the link), but over the next 24 hours Rico both said he was kinda suspicious and defended him (softly) from Golden. He kept defending him (again, softly), through Day 5 from Matt, but then voted to lynch him early on Day 6. Both of these interactions to me read absolute textbook baddie: lightly distance when possible, without creating any real pressure, defend without drawing attention to yourself when a buddy takes any heat, and when things start to look like they're headed the wrong way, bus, and do it fast and hard.
Is this still about the vote placement analysis on Night 13. Because if so, of course I started with the assumption that Wilgy could be bad. I was not able to tell which one of you or Wilgy might be bad, so I tried that analysis. I didn't manage to figure it out solely based on that analysis - hence my posted frustration.Russtifinko wrote:Quick reply as I'm headed out the door to work. Rico, the idea that Wilgy isn't proven bad is a major point in your posts above, but you yourself started from this assumption in your case on me earlier today. Make the assumption or don't, but don't say you can make it to case me and I can't make it to case you.
If you're thinking there's only one baddie left and implying Drugs isn't the last one, that quoi????Russtifinko wrote: You've also made the assumption (as has MM) that Drugs is the final baddie role, so I went from that starting point as well. Doesn't make it true, but since you and MM are free to assume it, don't tell me doing so makes me bad.
This is not just about Diiny. This is about all my confident calls and why they're so confident.Russtifinko wrote:What??????? Again, this is EXACTLY my point. EVERYONE wants the SK dead, so the fact that you helped get him says nothing whatsoever about your alignment. That you're presenting it as such is ludicrous and you know it. And your Mac "call" was one baddie in a game with 7. What do you want, a medal?Ricochet wrote:My call on Diiny, just like my call on Mac, is precisely the proof by which the others should trust me and to carry on with the plan in order for town to win this lylo.
That is true. My confidence in Diiny and Russ being the last two baddies, cemented after Wilgy's death, which stems from my deductions, is not the same thing with my belief that Diiny was SK, purely based on reads and him fitting the profile the most.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Rico, you were willing and eager to engage alternative prospects to a Diiny SK flip during Day 13 -- including asking me to case Russ as a possible SK based on the victims. While your language might have been confident, I'm not sure I can associate that confidence with anything other than your mentality and morale considering this.
If you're bad then you're playing in a dramatic endgame scenario with just three other players -- it's not a poor performance. It's quite a strong performance really. Also, when you assert that you "bussed teammates left and right" I think your language is too strong. You took part in three mafia lynches, the mafia team is seven deep. Why do you suppose these LC, Mac, and Bullzeye votes would have prevented you from using the Drugs power?Russtifinko wrote:I'm gonna close here because I desperately need to sleep, but I'll say this to JJJ and MM as a final point: You both know Rico and I to some extent as mafia players. To me this comes down to one of 2 theories:
(1) I played the worst baddie game in history, bussing teammates left and right when it stopped me from using my role power and made no sense to do so. Rico also played a pretty terrible game as a civ.
Let's examine the final voting records one more time since that seems to be your point of emphasis:Russtifinko wrote:Or (2): Rico played a prototypical baddie game where he bussed teammates only when he thought it was absolutely necessary, and did an damned impressive job keeping us guessing up until this point. I played a pretty solid civ game with a few notable holes (e.g. tunneling motel and missing Floyd). You guys can decide which is more likely.
Why should your call on Mac be of major significance eight game cycles after his lynch?Ricochet wrote:My call on Diiny, just like my call on Mac, is precisely the proof by which the others should trust me and to carry on with the plan in order for town to win this lylo.
Yes.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh, could you point to the moment in Russ's posts which inspired this confident statement from you? You've been at least entertaining alternative possibilities, so I'd just like to see what pushed your confidence to this level.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Yup, my vote's not moving. Russtifinko is definitely bad, and the final one.
Blind is still alive. I am not Blind based on the Day 12 lynch. Russtifinko most likely isn't Blind after all of the close lynches he's voted in that have gone his way. Ricochet probably isn't Blind either, but if he is, that makes Russtifinko's accusation false, and not because someone else is mafia, but because Russti is.Russtifinko wrote:Also, Blind does NOT have to be JJJ. You're only assuming that because he told you he thought he'd be around to endgame. That could also easily be because he and/or you are bad.
Linki: Provide evidence on the Wilgy thing, please, or at least list the baddies you're talking about. That's not a case, that's a baseless accusation.
Top 10 posters in this thread:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I may have the post record now, but is Rico now soundly in the top 3?
A while ago, when I was asked what's the strongest town evidence, I referenced my call and hunt on Mac. Now I've got the calls on Diiny and Russ as well. Nothing specific about Mac lingers on right now, eight cycles after he was lynched, but the common factor I've done back then and what I've been doing N12 through right now are: quick reaction, undeterred hunting, immediate results, absolute trust going in the right direction.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Why should your call on Mac be of major significance eight game cycles after his lynch?Ricochet wrote:My call on Diiny, just like my call on Mac, is precisely the proof by which the others should trust me and to carry on with the plan in order for town to win this lylo.
I think he meant top 3 all time. I remember Turnip stopping a few posts short of 1K - more specifically, winning the game 10-15? posts short of 1K, then symbolically refusing to pass the threshold, simply by posting post-game.MovingPictures07 wrote:Top 10 posters in this thread:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I may have the post record now, but is Rico now soundly in the top 3?
JaggedJimmyJay 1440
Ricochet 974
Metalmarsh89 900
Epignosis 491
Matt F 459
Diiny 445
MacDougall 432
a2thezebra 316
motel room 305
Strawhenge 284
Oh, that makes sense.Ricochet wrote:I think he meant top 3 all time. I remember Turnip stopping a few posts short of 1K - more specifically, winning the game 10-15? posts short of 1K, then symbolically refusing to pass the threshold, simply by posting post-game.MovingPictures07 wrote:Top 10 posters in this thread:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I may have the post record now, but is Rico now soundly in the top 3?
JaggedJimmyJay 1440
Ricochet 974
Metalmarsh89 900
Epignosis 491
Matt F 459
Diiny 445
MacDougall 432
a2thezebra 316
motel room 305
Strawhenge 284
That being said, I wouldn't mind the #2 spot.
Tony R 18381375704873761488582 postsMovingPictures07 wrote:Oh, that makes sense.Ricochet wrote:I think he meant top 3 all time. I remember Turnip stopping a few posts short of 1K - more specifically, winning the game 10-15? posts short of 1K, then symbolically refusing to pass the threshold, simply by posting post-game.MovingPictures07 wrote:Top 10 posters in this thread:JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I may have the post record now, but is Rico now soundly in the top 3?
JaggedJimmyJay 1440
Ricochet 974
Metalmarsh89 900
Epignosis 491
Matt F 459
Diiny 445
MacDougall 432
a2thezebra 316
motel room 305
Strawhenge 284
That being said, I wouldn't mind the #2 spot.
I am not sure what top 3 of all time are... Let me get back to you on that.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, so here is the Top 10 "posts in thread" of all time at The Syndicate... but, as Rico noted, these are including post-game posts for all non-Talking Heads games:
1. JaggedJimmyJay 1440 [Talking Heads]
2. Turnip Head 1001 [Death Note]
3. Ricochet 976 [Talking Heads]
4. Chris 952 [Doctor Who]
5. Metalmarsh89 900 [Talking Heads]
6. MovingPictures07 858 [Doctor Who]
7. DharmaHelper 822 [Death Note]
8. Metalmarsh89 719 [Death Note]
9. Sloonei 705 [Bullets Over Broadway]
10. Golden 692 [Bullets Over Broadway]
Honorable mention to:
Epignosis 673 [Death Note]![]()
You forgot these two.MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, so here is the Top 10 "posts in thread" of all time at The Syndicate... but, as Rico noted, these are including post-game posts for all non-Talking Heads games:
1. JaggedJimmyJay 1440 [Talking Heads]
2. Turnip Head 1001 [Death Note]
3. Ricochet 976 [Talking Heads]
4. Chris 952 [Doctor Who]
5. Metalmarsh89 900 [Talking Heads]
6. MovingPictures07 858 [Doctor Who]
7. DharmaHelper 822 [Death Note]
8. Metalmarsh89 719 [Death Note]
9. Sloonei 705 [Bullets Over Broadway]
10. Golden 692 [Bullets Over Broadway]
Honorable mention to:
Epignosis 673 [Death Note]
I wanna, but it also feels like semi-cheating, because it's OT and small talk instead of intense talk.Golden wrote:My performance in this game would be on that list if I were still alive. I'm not sure I'll ever hit 1000 in a game though. That's too intense for me!
Rico... catch that turnip.
You have 89 posts right now.TheFloyd73 wrote:How many posts did I get? 120 or something?
Triple J, you have too much time in your hands.
Would you believe me if I told you I had less than 100 posts at the start of Day 5?Ricochet wrote:I wanna, but it also feels like semi-cheating, because it's OT and small talk instead of intense talk.Golden wrote:My performance in this game would be on that list if I were still alive. I'm not sure I'll ever hit 1000 in a game though. That's too intense for me!
Rico... catch that turnip.![]()
Then again, considering how much TH spammed in Death Note to climb his way up there...
These are outrageous allegationsRicochet wrote:Then again, considering how much TH spammed in Death Note to climb his way up there...
Yes, you always lose ground by missing a phase or a cycle due to rocks.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Would you believe me if I told you I had less than 100 posts at the start of Day 5?Ricochet wrote:I wanna, but it also feels like semi-cheating, because it's OT and small talk instead of intense talk.Golden wrote:My performance in this game would be on that list if I were still alive. I'm not sure I'll ever hit 1000 in a game though. That's too intense for me!
Rico... catch that turnip.![]()
Then again, considering how much TH spammed in Death Note to climb his way up there...
Not to mention you would have died on D4, if only you were bulletproof...Turnip Head wrote:These are outrageous allegationsRicochet wrote:Then again, considering how much TH spammed in Death Note to climb his way up there...
Well, hopefully, that is.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Just another 1.5 hours until game ends.