The Syndicate

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:28 am just woke up damn

so hunching back to the first wagon:

Mac got voted by Epignosis, followed by Sprityo and JJJ

Here is the tinfoil to it:
Scum wants to get Sprityo mislynched based on Macs agression towards them and the weak townreads they received.
Epignosis is the wolf who votes his wolfmate Mac in order to see if Sprityo or others go alongside it. This only works because Mac received some townreads from "towncore"-side.
JJJ makes the wagon stronger which allows Epig the freedome to have another wagon going on and increase the chances of mislynches.
Because ideally for scum they can get Sprityo mislynched for a weak D0 or keep their options open to mislynch JJJ or potentially me, Drago, TSP.
This works also if Mac is town, but it works better when Mac is Epigs wolf partner, because Mac voted Sprityo and thus they kept the option open for mislynching Sprityo.

So every mislynch candidate here receives townreads from me for now, based on the wagon analysis. JJJ can also be a proactive town. Epignosis has the most suspicious wagon, that profits scum the most in the small setup. Just some deep insights, combined with the point that Epignosis has a hard time receiving town reads from others.

let me catch up, but my vote will be on Epignosis.

I am still at page 13, but I think not much will change from my POV.

[mention]nutella[/mention] what is so extremely tinfoil about this? Epignosis maneuvering numerous mislynch options strikes me as plausible enough whether it's to be believed or not.

Oh a four vote tie.

Rej wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:28 am Epignosis has a hard time receiving town reads from others.

There's a reason for that.

[mention]Rej[/mention] I don't follow the progressions of your reads on either Mac or myself at all. You'll see the compilation shortly, but I want to say this now.

Reads progressions for Rej

on Creature: Green on rainbow list | Creature is not lynch-worthy
on Dragomir: Suggests town-town or mafia-mafia for nutella/Drago re: me | Green on rainbow list | Wants to townform (suspicion) | Still green/still possible townforming
on Epignosis: Doesn't like meta push on JJJ | Avoiding the gun | Orange on rainbow | Did not receive civilian reads from his side | Suggests in what he calls tinfoil that Epi is maneuvering mislynch options | Vote
on Jack: Lots of fluff | Orange in rainbow/light orange
on JJJ: Orange on rainbow | Has his eye on me dot gif | His tinfoil thing seems to imply I'd be a civilian | Says Epi fits better for tinfoil than I do because I've made effort | Shortlist for mafia
on Long Con: No read found
on MacDougall: Mac including host as suspect was half-assed | Green on rainbow | Plays like a flexible towny/not avoiding gun | Screams town | Defends Mac against his voters | Tinfoils potential for Mac/Epi team but also Mac as town | Mac on shortlist for possible mafia
on nutella: Suggests town-town or mafia-mafia for nutella/Drago re: me | Light orange on rainbow | Liked nutella's handling of me/emotions could be an act
on sprityo: Green in rainbow | Tends to null read and doesn't want to make a fuss | Can't see mafia profit for sprityo behavior or see a civilian | Potential mislynch in the tinfoil thing
on Tony: Suggests he was suspicious for handling of nutella/JJJ spat | Orange in rainbow | Says made lame excuse | On mafia shortlist

Static reads: Creature, Dragomir*, Epignosis, Jack, JJJ, nutella*, sprityo, Tony
Moving reads: MacDougall
Non-reads: Long Con

*nutella and Dragomir are awkward here, as Rej consistently read them as both mafia and town simultaneously depending upon various theories he fielded.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm Drago/Jack feels right I think that's it someone write it down

Why Jack?

Drago spends a lot of time casually scumreading Jack as a second target and then asks him as a second target to vote with him. It gives me bad vibes. Gut feeling.

Reads progression for sprityo

on Creature: Bottom half of reads list
on Dragomir: Top half of reads list | Ponder emoji implying some kind of suspicion
on Epignosis: Bottom half of reads list | Doesn't exist which is questionable |
on Jack: Bottom half of reads list
on JJJ: Top half of reads list | Suspicious of my apparent 180 | Doesn't think I would tend to try new things as mafia
on Long Con: Top half of reads list/pending
on MacDougall: Bottom half of reads list | Suggests Mac says the same things he says in more words | Vote | His reads are anti-Mac | Can't actually tell
on nutella: Top half of reads list
on Rej: Top half of reads list | Top of town list
on Tony: Bottom half of reads list

Static reads: Creature, Epignosis, Jack, JJJ, Long Con, MacDougall*, nutella, Rej, Tony
Moving reads: Dragomir
Non-reads:

*could be argued as a non-read

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm Drago/Jack feels right I think that's it someone write it down

Why Jack?

Drago spends a lot of time casually scumreading Jack as a second target and then asks him as a second target to vote with him. It gives me bad vibes. Gut feeling.

I will eat my hat and then poop it out and then eat it again if Dragomir is a mafioso.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:42 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm Drago/Jack feels right I think that's it someone write it down

Why Jack?

Drago spends a lot of time casually scumreading Jack as a second target and then asks him as a second target to vote with him. It gives me bad vibes. Gut feeling.

I will eat my hat and then poop it out and then eat it again if Dragomir is a mafioso.

Would you though

Reads progressions for Tony

on Creature: Lean town? wifom | Reiterated town read | Town core | Same again
on Dragomir: Slight orange/moderate scum with Jack | Scum for not going after Rej | Worse than Jack/Epi | Speaks out against Drago | Scum GTH
on Epignosis: GTH scum for Robert Kraft joke | Less scum than Drago | "Sort out" GTH
on Jack: Slight orange/moderate scum with Drago | Less scum than Drago | Credits Jack for not knowing what to say about sprityo/Tony | "Sort out" GTH
on JJJ: Probably town based on Drago suspicion | "Sort out" GTH
on Long Con: Has no posts | "Sort out" GTH
on MacDougall: Probably town | So town that Tony won't even self-pres vote | Town core | Mac/nutella possible but not worth voting | JJJ/Mac team joke
on nutella: Gut town after spat with me | Scummish | Stole sprityo suspicion from Mac | Speaks out against nutella | Scum GTH
on Rej: Questions Rej on discounting possibilities | Slight town | Rej or Drago as one mafia member | Scum GTH
on sprityo: His reads list is not great or terrible | Town GTH

Static reads: Creature, Dragomir, Epignosis, JJJ, MacDougall, sprityo
Moving reads: Jack, nutella, Rej
Non-reads: Long Con

How bout them Niners

Visualizing the tallies for those analyses:



There's subjectivity in these classifications. Some may disagree. I can explain rationale later if needed.

It's not really just raw counts that concern me here, though it's a nice simplified guide. Further interpretation to follow.

Golly, I'm more static than moving in this act. I thought I was a dynamic character, but I'm friggin Tom Buchanan.

One base note: If the general premise that greater reads motion within a broader space of maneuverability is to be viewed as a sign of civilianhood, then I am encouraged that Dragomir emerges from this exercise as the one best suiting that idea. He has been all over the place by comparison to the others I reviewed, and he is also my strongest civilian read. Should he turn up mafia then oh golly, but I am encouraged right now.

One thing that drove me toward this effort was an expectation that Tony would not perform well. As it turns out, I think he's actually been more fluid than most players in this game. That may then serve as another point to his credit. He hasn't entirely sat on his initial reads as I had kind of expected based upon my general perception of his reads before the effort.

Some of these which might look bad by the numbers should be assessed for player and personality too. Epignosis's reads are highly static. I kinda figure they tend to be that way in most of his games. This isn't a reason to give him civilian credit, but it is a caution against allowing it to serve as a sole inspiration for pitchforks. Likewise with sprityo, there's no reason to expect reads fluidity when he has barely made any of them in the first place. I recommend reading both of these players on other bases.

Rej has been highly static in his reads, and even when there was some motion I struggled to follow it. He emerges as the worst look I think. Mac is also pretty rigid in his game theory -- there's not much motion in his play. I tend to expect more of that from him. Not my favorite thing.

I'm going to continue thinking things over. I have to drive home though which will take me 2+ hours. I should be back for the EOD period if there are no traffic problems. Keep the thread working while I am away please. Feedback is always welcome here too.

[VOTE: Rej] aubergine

[mention]nutella[/mention] I have no idea why he's such a strong town read for you. I hope you'll explain that.

Be back as soon as I can be back.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:29 pm [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

@nutella I have no idea why he's such a strong town read for you. I hope you'll explain that.

I did tho

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:35 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:29 pm [VOTE: Rej] aubergine

@nutella I have no idea why he's such a strong town read for you. I hope you'll explain that.

I did tho

Could you please expand? His tinfoil does not scream anything to me about his alignment. You disagree. Help me out.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:21 pm Visualizing the tallies for those analyses:



There's subjectivity in these classifications. Some may disagree. I can explain rationale later if needed.

It's not really just raw counts that concern me here, though it's a nice simplified guide. Further interpretation to follow.

Lol I should be embarrassed by this but my D1 reads were better than yours in WC1 so...

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

If you haven't posted a readlist lately, I wanna see one from you.

I'll pass. Refer to my last one.

Add Creature to the naughty pile though. That's my only change.

I think Tony's read on me and Drago.

It's obviously wrong but idk it seems like something that would come from a civ.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay
@Epignosis
@TonyStarkPrime

If you haven't posted a readlist lately, I wanna see one from you.

I think I did pretty recently when I posted my voting ranked choice list. The middle three have traded spots back and forth and Nutella has moved up two to third to last place.
As of now


Sprityo
Creature
Mac
JJJ
Epi
Jack
Nutella
Rej
Drago

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:30 pm Add Creature to the naughty pile though. That's my only change.

So your scumreads are Rej and Mac and Creature?

You're no help at all.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:33 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:30 pm Add Creature to the naughty pile though. That's my only change.

So your scumreads are Rej and Mac and Creature?

You're no help at all.

Neither was fucking Alvin Kamara, but he gets paid what now?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay
@Epignosis
@TonyStarkPrime

If you haven't posted a readlist lately, I wanna see one from you.

I think I did pretty recently when I posted my voting ranked choice list. The middle three have traded spots back and forth and Nutella has moved up two to third to last place.
As of now


Sprityo
Creature
Mac
JJJ
Epi
Jack
Nutella
Rej
Drago

Also not useful at all. Your bottom 4 at least are town.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:33 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:33 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:30 pm Add Creature to the naughty pile though. That's my only change.

So your scumreads are Rej and Mac and Creature?

You're no help at all.

Neither was fucking Alvin Kamara, but he gets paid what now?

Why don't you suspect a player that's actually mafia so I can convince you to vote for them over your other suspects?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:34 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay
@Epignosis
@TonyStarkPrime

If you haven't posted a readlist lately, I wanna see one from you.

I think I did pretty recently when I posted my voting ranked choice list. The middle three have traded spots back and forth and Nutella has moved up two to third to last place.
As of now


Sprityo
Creature
Mac
JJJ
Epi
Jack
Nutella
Rej
Drago

Also not useful at all. Your bottom 4 at least are town.

okay mister what do you think

Jack, whom must I suspect to be useful? Let me know. I will suspect that person.

You need to suspect Jay. Or idk each other.

Or Sprityo.

No can do. I'm static, remember?

Has nutella received votes, got mad and then unanimously townread for her anger yet?

Oi Jack who should I vote for?

Can we just lynch Jay for making up some analytics?

If day ended at present moment, I'm breaking onto Epi cause I've liked a few things Tony has said and then if Epi flips town, I'm using that to push my scumread on Jay cause Epi came out scumreading Jay for bad reasons and Jay pushed that as suspicious when I didn't think it really was. And if Epi flips scum, that probably clears Jay.

So if you're town, Epi, show me your the goods

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:40 pm Can we just lynch Jay for making up some analytics?

Bro join the club

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:39 pm Has nutella received votes, got mad and then unanimously townread for her anger yet?

I mean, that's basically Jay's progression on her but I strongly townread her before that.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:40 pm Can we just lynch Jay for making up some analytics?

Yarp.

Like I think there's a reason that Jack, Nutella, Mac and Epi all came into this game scumreading Jay.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:42 pm If day ended at present moment, I'm breaking onto Epi cause I've liked a few things Tony has said and then if Epi flips town, I'm using that to push my scumread on Jay cause Epi came out scumreading Jay for bad reasons and Jay pushed that as suspicious when I didn't think it really was. And if Epi flips scum, that probably clears Jay.

So if you're town, Epi, show me your the goods

Nah. I'm pissed at losing today for shit reasons. I'll be watching a movie with my family for the next 100 minutes or so. I'll be back after I've sufficiently drowned me sorrows.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:44 pm Like I think there's a reason that Jack, Nutella, Mac and Epi all came into this game scumreading Jay.

Yeah, I don't want to back off and have it turn out I was right. After the vindication of replacing into the scrimmage game and having my suspicions confirmed there, I feel I should trust my gut and not let his rhetoric sway me. Let's slay this beast.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:45 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:42 pm If day ended at present moment, I'm breaking onto Epi cause I've liked a few things Tony has said and then if Epi flips town, I'm using that to push my scumread on Jay cause Epi came out scumreading Jay for bad reasons and Jay pushed that as suspicious when I didn't think it really was. And if Epi flips scum, that probably clears Jay.

So if you're town, Epi, show me your the goods

Nah. I'm pissed at losing today for shit reasons. I'll be watching a movie with my family for the next 100 minutes or so. I'll be back after I've sufficiently drowned me sorrows.

Drink moar bourbon.

Jack if you're a death eater you need to tell me k

I'm putting my faith in you cuz I think we can do this but if you turn on me Imma be pissed

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:46 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:44 pm Like I think there's a reason that Jack, Nutella, Mac and Epi all came into this game scumreading Jay.

Yeah, I don't want to back off and have it turn out I was right. After the vindication of replacing into the scrimmage game and having my suspicions confirmed there, I feel I should trust my gut and not let his rhetoric sway me. Let's slay this beast.

You can't catch scum Jay day 1 if you're scared to lynch Jay day 1.

Linki: I'm always town, Nutella.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:48 pm Jack if you're a death eater you need to tell me k

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:48 pm I'm putting my faith in you cuz I think we can do this but if you turn on me Imma be pissed

Civilian posts this why?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:49 pm
Linki: I'm always town, Nutella.

Can't argue with that. You're town even when you're half a hydra in a scum slot.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:50 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:48 pm Jack if you're a death eater you need to tell me k

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:48 pm I'm putting my faith in you cuz I think we can do this but if you turn on me Imma be pissed

Civilian posts this why?

PTSD

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:47 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:45 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:42 pm If day ended at present moment, I'm breaking onto Epi cause I've liked a few things Tony has said and then if Epi flips town, I'm using that to push my scumread on Jay cause Epi came out scumreading Jay for bad reasons and Jay pushed that as suspicious when I didn't think it really was. And if Epi flips scum, that probably clears Jay.

So if you're town, Epi, show me your the goods

Nah. I'm pissed at losing today for shit reasons. I'll be watching a movie with my family for the next 100 minutes or so. I'll be back after I've sufficiently drowned me sorrows.

Drink moar bourbon.

I'm out!

I'm in a mood, and watching LOTR eases me. I do promise to be back and try to provide some effort.

But my bankroll has gone the way of Rohan villages and there was no white wizard to throw any touchdown passes in the fourth (or Teddy Bridgewater who could at least give it to Kamara without his fucking O-line committing a penalty).

Seriously, be back in less than two hours.