The Syndicate

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:51 pm Spelling that all out just now made me realize how important it is for everyone to cast all of their allotted votes. In the past, vote analysis was my bread and butter, but I usually needed three days to start gleaning info and piecing things together. I thought this game would move too fast for it to be useful, but it can be. The quantity of votes in the game, coupled with the quantity of chops, makes up for the speed at which the game progresses.

I’m going to try to spreadsheet all the votes out if I can. I won’t be able to share until closer to EoD, but I will share what I can when I can.

In the meantime, test your sus theories against vote records. See if you see any daylight in there!

I agree. we can not have any ties. we should do our best to use our votes and not give anything far as votes goes to mafia. I wish I had understood the tie thing more the first night.

how do I have 95 posts in this topic? should it not have reset to 0 on start of nite 2? do I really only have 5 posts left?

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:35 pm how do I have 95 posts in this topic? should it not have reset to 0 on start of nite 2? do I really only have 5 posts left?

It doesn't reset. Nanook made a post at the start of the day with everyone's postcount in topic at the time. We have to do the subtraction ourselves.

Daisy what game did we play together?

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:40 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:35 pm how do I have 95 posts in this topic? should it not have reset to 0 on start of nite 2? do I really only have 5 posts left?

It doesn't reset. Nanook made a post at the start of the day with everyone's postcount in topic at the time. We have to do the subtraction ourselves.

oh okay. jeebus, I was worried

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:41 pm Daisy what game did we play together?

that one with percy and Ace. Ace was mafia.

it took me awhile to find it. idk why it's not listed as one of my games played in my profile in mu.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... John-mafia

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:45 pm it took me awhile to find it. idk why it's not listed as one of my games played in my profile in mu.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... John-mafia

I've gotten sidetracked reading it...that was a heck of a game. It was modbot manual so the host has to enter it into the stats...and they didn't.

Anyway...that was one of my best town games ever, compounded by that game having a just unbelievable talent pool for a player list...so probably accounts for a lot of strangeness I had with things you have said about me here

[VOTE: VOTE WILGY] aubergine [VOTE: VOTE TIM] aubergine[VOTE: VOTE DAISY] aubergine

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:51 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:14 am

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:12 am In a regular game Wilgy has a decent chance of just voting right and getting spewed clear even though he doesn't post reads and stuff. This game is going to arrive at a conclusion way too soon and vote scattering is just a problem so unless he changes how he plays I don't see any way he gets firmly read before LYLO, therefor he just cannot go to LYLO. Sad but true, [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

Get ya vote off me ya goon.

I'm in losers. If I'm scum, hunt my teammate as I don't win alone.

Why are people wanting to waste tempo on me?

I have three votes. If you are woofin' I am hunting your teammate with the other two votes. The vote on you costs me genuinely nothing. That's an oddity of the setup. Instead of killing the wolfiest person and letting the nulls have another day to hopefully get sorted we are called on to mass slaughter everyone who isn't actively towny. It's...different, no question, but we have to adapt.

I disagree. The value of a vote is just expressed differently. Not like it's no longer there.

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:35 am

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:14 am

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:12 am In a regular game Wilgy has a decent chance of just voting right and getting spewed clear even though he doesn't post reads and stuff. This game is going to arrive at a conclusion way too soon and vote scattering is just a problem so unless he changes how he plays I don't see any way he gets firmly read before LYLO, therefor he just cannot go to LYLO. Sad but true, [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

Get ya vote off me ya goon.

I'm in losers. If I'm scum, hunt my teammate as I don't win alone.

Why are people wanting to waste tempo on me?

that's all u have to say? and u ask this?

how about sharing your reads? your thoughts on the Alison gonna thunderdome again like she claimed she didn't with Mac? what about who u think is suss and why? do u think all the wolves are down here?

you are playing this just like the rest of us. what are your thoughts on the flips and possible ways scum went etc?

don't be mad you are being suss and u r being voted. people have legitimate concerns about you. if your town u put yourself there thinking slanking is okay.

town can be inactive and not coast along. there is a difference. u not being helpful and memeing and stuff.. well that has its place but u gotta show your work too. your thoughts, anything. u should not expect others to solve the game for u.

if I was vig I might consider shooting u because u legit can't be mad for any votes on you. just play the game to your win condition. or is this your win condition because u r town. to shade people who found u?

Pop pop pop pop pop.

I'm not mad lol. It's just not in town's favor to put votes on me.

Do I come off as mad to you?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:04 pm [VOTE: VOTE WILGY] aubergine [VOTE: VOTE TIM] aubergine[VOTE: VOTE DAISY] aubergine

You seriously think I have better partner equity with Made than Alison has?

Whatever.

he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

Plausible

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:51 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:04 pm [VOTE: VOTE WILGY] aubergine [VOTE: VOTE TIM] aubergine[VOTE: VOTE DAISY] aubergine

You seriously think I have better partner equity with Made than Alison has?

Whatever.

TBH, I've put in approx 10 seconds of thought into that. I'm fine voting Alison, so [VOTE: VOTE ALISON] aubergine

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:13 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

No, but I do really want to flip you now.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:13 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

No, but I do really want to flip you now.

It's not as spicy as you think, pretty bland flip dude

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:15 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:13 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

No, but I do really want to flip you now.

It's not as spicy as you think, pretty bland flip dude

Good thing unsweetened cheerios are my fav

Someone tell me the pros and cons between Tim and TSP as my last vote

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:16 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:15 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:13 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

No, but I do really want to flip you now.

It's not as spicy as you think, pretty bland flip dude

Good thing unsweetened cheerios are my fav

....ok

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:17 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:16 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:15 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:13 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:04 pm

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:03 pm he is trying to tie things up so mafia controls the lynches

I like this theory.

You guys are just choked I voted for you

No, but I do really want to flip you now.

It's not as spicy as you think, pretty bland flip dude

Good thing unsweetened cheerios are my fav

....ok

Idk what you want from me brudda

I just skimmed through TSP and Tim's ISO and I think I like [VOTE: Falcon] aubergine [VOTE: TSP] aubergine [VOTE: Tim] aubergine

@DrWilgy @falcon45ca I mean could you give some thoughts into why you're voting the way you are?

falcon, it just looks like omgus to me.

wilgy, umm why?

wilgy i thought u liked tony?

voting wilgy becasue he literally forced my hand and also alison hasn't voted and that's very >rand wolf here tbh

which looks better for tim because alison is right that this is the kinda thing tim would do as a wolf if alison is town but if alison is a wolf that's not the case

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:38 pm @DrWilgy @falcon45ca I mean could you give some thoughts into why you're voting the way you are?

falcon, it just looks like omgus to me.

wilgy, umm why?

Tim because of the few Made interactions I noticed.

TSP because of butt gut. Could be dissuaded from TSP.

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:38 pm wilgy i thought u liked tony?

I didn't know Tony was in the game until the others said he was also slankin lol

Idk.

Send em off: Alison, Tony, Tim and Falcon. In that reverse order.

alison and tim are probably not both wolves and should not both be chopped in the same day if we can help it

im not a wolf and should not be chopped at all

kinda still think daisy is a wolf tbh

Spreadsheeting is done, but I'm making it editable format here rather than pictures. That way we can keep updating it.


DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

--------------------------------------------

KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

MARMOT (0)

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:38 pm @DrWilgy @falcon45ca I mean could you give some thoughts into why you're voting the way you are?

falcon, it just looks like omgus to me.

wilgy, umm why?

I honestly voted for you cuz nobody else was. I want Tim/Alison resolved, but that's probably the strongest I feel about the game

Search through that and try to add if-then scenarios to you suspicions. Who did your sus vote for? Does it mesh with Made's flip? Use it and try to create a world based on data that explains how a potential baddie team may have voted to get as much of what they want out of Day 1 and Night 1.

jesus that day 1 vote count probably solves the game

so much data

send HK and Kyle down tomorrow

kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

like truly mindshattering

I think what happens here is falcon flips wolf and alison and wilgy flip town, then we chop tim and kyle tomorrow and win the game

Some quick observations:

1) If we had two baddies in the LB last night and Made got bussed for cred, then his teammate is either Daisy or Tim. Neither Daisy nor Tim voted for Made on Day 1.

2) If we had two baddies in the LB last night, and Made wasn't bussed for cred, then his teammate is one of Alison or Tony. Neither Alison nor Tony voted for Made Day 1.

3) If Made was the only baddie in the LB Night 1, then he could have been bussed by G-Man, Marmot, and/or Moghedien. I am the only current living member of the LB who voted for Made Day 1.

4) Made was in a 4-way tie for 5th place on Day 1. If he had teammates on his train, they could have dropped their votes to Kyle or Marmot to move Made out of the LB. I could have moved my vote to Marmot only, as I had already voted for Kyle. Marmot could not have moved his vote to switch Made out, as he had already voted for himself and Kyle. Moghedien could have switched their vote to either Kyle or Marmot but did not.

5) Made could have switched a vote or even added a vote to Kyle in order to make it a five-way tie and let the mafia break the tie. This did not happen. I find this curious.

we should just flip people who voted consensus subjects day 1 tbh

all the wolves are on the mac wagon i betcha except one and that one is

falcon boom game

Stopping to eat dinner. In case I don't make it back before the deadline, my votes are:

[VOTE: Alison
Falcon
Tony] aubergine

That's what I was sent here to do initially. We'll see if I change that up.

don't do that I'm town

huh does falcon really not bother to vote if he's a wolf on day 1