The Syndicate

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:40 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:31 pm I thought the way spf defended me today was extremely towny. I know that pocketing exists, but why would she at this stage of the game when it would be so very easy to allow me to get eliminated.

because spf is the most townsiding wolf i know.

I once dayvigged a teammate 5 posts into D1

There is a game at MU where SPF was wolf and defended me and TR me for meta reasons.
I think Hally's double post is very realistic

they were awful at scum and basically said they didn't want to play the game in wolfchat so I said "ok cool I have a dayvig, say something scummy in your entrance so I can shoot you" and then I claimed I was a paranoid veteran who had a one shot dayvig and a one shot booby trap (kills everyone who visits me the night its planted) to explain why I wasn't NKed

and yes SPF has shielded villas as wolves before (in fact the vast majority of wolves have shielded villas before, it's called TMI)

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:18 pm this really feels like a “kill spf” game

this is raising my eyebrows. why am i in your immediate suspect pool?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:55 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:18 pm this really feels like a “kill spf” game

this is raising my eyebrows. why am i in your immediate suspect pool?

why shouldn’t you be? do you disagree with any of the people i’ve cleared?

if you want an actual reason, i didn’t like your push on falcon

by my estimation there’s about 5 or 6 slots that could be a wolf and there’s probably like 3 wolves left

your slot is one of them. if you’re a villager just kill the other people in my poe or tell me why i’ve miscleared someone

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:58 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:55 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:18 pm this really feels like a “kill spf” game

this is raising my eyebrows. why am i in your immediate suspect pool?

why shouldn’t you be? do you disagree with any of the people i’ve cleared?

if you want an actual reason, i didn’t like your push on falcon

the people that you've cleared are fine, but i would not bank the game on them being town. it's a good foundation for a working POE to get things back on track but i don't share the same level of confidence that you do about oddmerta/alison, even though i would lean on them being town GTH

also, i don't understand why you find my push on falcon wolfy. he was making weird factually inaccurate posts about the red check and it felt disingenuous to me - i voted him for pressure and everyone piled on

the falcon chop was truly awful and i should have done more to prevent people from voting with me, but even so, i have a feeling that you wouldnt be saying that you ~disliked~ my push on falcon if falcon also did not incidentally get chopped

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:58 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:55 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:18 pm this really feels like a “kill spf” game

this is raising my eyebrows. why am i in your immediate suspect pool?

why shouldn’t you be? do you disagree with any of the people i’ve cleared?

if you want an actual reason, i didn’t like your push on falcon

the people that you've cleared are fine, but i would not bank the game on them being town. it's a good foundation for a working POE to get things back on track but i don't share the same level of confidence that you do about oddmerta/alison, even though i would lean on them being town GTH

also, i don't understand why you find my push on falcon wolfy. he was making weird factually inaccurate posts about the red check and it felt disingenuous to me - i voted him for pressure and everyone piled on

the falcon chop was truly awful and i should have done more to prevent people from voting with me, but even so, i have a feeling that you wouldnt be saying that you ~disliked~ my push on falcon if falcon also did not incidentally get chopped

also i dont have an issue with you putting me in your POE (even though i think i've been an obvious villager all game), i have an issue with you saying that this feels like a "kill SPF game". it feels like you're falling into the mindset of: "the wolves are hard to find so therefore SPF must be a wolf" but i don't wanna misrepresent you

i mean, that’s exactly what i’m doing

have you considered not doing that?

why is that wrong though? people do that to me all the time and though it’s frustrating it often ends up being correct in games where the poe seems villagery

when everyone is villagery you look at the people who are most capable of being villagery as a wolf. shrug

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:26 pm have you considered not doing that?

no because i don’t know what the alternative is. i don’t think the people i’ve cleared are wolves. you’re in a small group of people leftover that contains many wolves. if i take you out who’s left? i can’t clear everyone

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:27 pm why is that wrong though? people do that to me all the time and though it’s frustrating it often ends up being correct in games where the poe seems villagery

when everyone is villagery you look at the people who are most capable of being villagery as a wolf. shrug

i mean, i don't disagree. if the POE is full of villagers then it stands to reason that there's a wolf that's just being villagery, but that's not how i'm looking at this game

there are too many people who i don't have to stretch particularly hard to see as a wolf - i am not struggling to find a fit within my POE, i am struggling to find someone who is explicitly wolfy beyond just: "shrug, they could be a wolf"

the reality is the only way to catch very good wolves like yourself is to poe you out of the game over time by correctly identifying villagers and killing everyone else. you’re never going to be “caught.” you’re too good. you weren’t caught in grasslands. it just got to the point where clearing you stopped the game from making sense so i didn’t do it anymore

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:29 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:27 pm why is that wrong though? people do that to me all the time and though it’s frustrating it often ends up being correct in games where the poe seems villagery

when everyone is villagery you look at the people who are most capable of being villagery as a wolf. shrug

i mean, i don't disagree. if the POE is full of villagers then it stands to reason that there's a wolf that's just being villagery, but that's not how i'm looking at this game

there are too many people who i don't have to stretch particularly hard to see as a wolf - i am not struggling to find a fit within my POE, i am struggling to find someone who is explicitly wolfy beyond just: "shrug, they could be a wolf"

who are those people?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:32 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:29 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:27 pm why is that wrong though? people do that to me all the time and though it’s frustrating it often ends up being correct in games where the poe seems villagery

when everyone is villagery you look at the people who are most capable of being villagery as a wolf. shrug

i mean, i don't disagree. if the POE is full of villagers then it stands to reason that there's a wolf that's just being villagery, but that's not how i'm looking at this game

there are too many people who i don't have to stretch particularly hard to see as a wolf - i am not struggling to find a fit within my POE, i am struggling to find someone who is explicitly wolfy beyond just: "shrug, they could be a wolf"

who are those people?

i mean, everyone

nanook looks fairly villagery for his shot - i'm willing to take him out of my POE for now even though i think it's plausible that a wolf would fire a shot at an opposing team for towncred

oddmerta could be a wolf. i agree that his push on sloonei was mildly villagery but: "this person is playing too absurdly to be a wolf" is not a good foundation to take someone out of the POE (imo), and i'm not sold on him being a villager

esooa's claim and reaction to being wagoned was kind of villagery even though ive been concerned about her throughout this game - i think we both agree that esooa can not be taken comfortably out of the POE solely because she makes sense as a 3p

strawhenge has made a couple of posts that pinged me but i find his overall output really good and i do want to trust jagged/sloonei's read on him. i would take him out of my POE for now too, probably

KZA could be a wolf. i don't have any reasons to townread him

long con could be a wolf

fingersplints could be a wolf

i'm treating you (hally) as clear for now

JPIC could be a wolf

michelle is a villager, and i would take her out of my POE

alison can be taken out of my POE for now, i guess. i don't understand why she's being treated as a mechanically confirmed villager but her claim is reasonably towny and her output has been okay. i would probably tinfoil that slot a lot if she lives for much longer

BoKnows could be a wolf, although i feel pretty strongly that he is significantly townier than any game i have ever seen him play

so, i'm not really struggling to find a POE - i am struggling to find ~specific~, concrete wolfreads. i do not get the sense that there are *too many* people being cleared, or that the POE doesn't make sense

you are effectively saying we should clear almost nobody

how is that supposed to help us win?

like, you have 8 or 9 people there you’re saying you don’t want to clear but also have no particular reason to think are wolves

so who do you wanna kill? what should we do iyo?

i’m not trying to give you a hard time but i feel like you’re trying to keep the poe as wide as possible so that we just kill whoever and cross our fingers that they’re a wolf like we did with falcon

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:48 pm you are effectively saying we should clear almost nobody

how is that supposed to help us win?

like, you have 8 or 9 people there you’re saying you don’t want to clear but also have no particular reason to think are wolves

so who do you wanna kill? what should we do iyo?

no. i am saying that there is nothing about this game that indicates that the wolves are "hard" to find or that the POE is completely, totally broken. i am not saying: "we should clear no one and do nothing", i am arguing against the assertion of: "the game doesn't make sense, so SPF is a wolf"

and to answer your question, i want to do what i've been doing every single day of this game: narrow down the game into a pool that has multiple wolves in it, and then chop within that pool. we don't need to find all the answers right now, we just need to head in the right direction

so, for me, that would look something like: i'm not interested in chopping alison today. i'm not interested in chopping esooa today. i'm not interested in chopping nanook today. i'm not interested in chopping strawhenge, hally, or michelle today. i am probably not interested in chopping BoKnows today either. that's not because i think those people should be "clear", but because i think that's a pool that mostly contains villagers

so, that leaves:

oddmerta, KZA, long con, fingersplints, JPIC

there is probably a wolf or two in that pool - maybe more if we're lucky. that seems like a good place to start

I'm the vig and I'm shooting myself

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:54 pm and to answer your question, i want to do what i've been doing every single day of this game: narrow down the game into a pool that has multiple wolves in it, and then chop within that pool. we don't need to find all the answers right now, we just need to head in the right direction

so, for me, that would look something like: i'm not interested in chopping alison today. i'm not interested in chopping esooa today. i'm not interested in chopping nanook today. i'm not interested in chopping strawhenge, hally, or michelle today. i am probably not interested in chopping BoKnows today either. that's not because i think those people should be "clear", but because i think that's a pool that mostly contains villagers

so, that leaves:

oddmerta, KZA, long con, fingersplints, JPIC

there is probably a wolf or two in that pool - maybe more if we're lucky. that seems like a good place to start

then your poe is the same as my poe except you’ve swapped yourself for odd and tentatively taken bo out

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:09 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:54 pm and to answer your question, i want to do what i've been doing every single day of this game: narrow down the game into a pool that has multiple wolves in it, and then chop within that pool. we don't need to find all the answers right now, we just need to head in the right direction

so, for me, that would look something like: i'm not interested in chopping alison today. i'm not interested in chopping esooa today. i'm not interested in chopping nanook today. i'm not interested in chopping strawhenge, hally, or michelle today. i am probably not interested in chopping BoKnows today either. that's not because i think those people should be "clear", but because i think that's a pool that mostly contains villagers

so, that leaves:

oddmerta, KZA, long con, fingersplints, JPIC

there is probably a wolf or two in that pool - maybe more if we're lucky. that seems like a good place to start

then your poe is the same as my poe except you’ve swapped yourself for odd and tentatively taken bo out

then that's good!

spf, you were saying lc was a villager and defending him yesterday. what changed?

why do you think jpic can be a wolf? you said he was playing much better than his wolf game. and i think how he claimed his result looks villagery. do you not?

and do you not think how odd claimed was villagery too?

why are you saying the wolves are easy to find? i don’t think they are at all

if the wolves aren’t hard to find you should be able to give me reasons why the people in your poe are wolfy but it doesn’t really seem like you have reasons to think they are. or am i wrong?

like the idea that the wolves are easy to find is demonstratively false because you and many others thought a flipped villager was the wolfiest person itg last day

so like, if the wolves aren’t hard to find why didn’t we find them?

unless you’re saying lc is a wolf we didn’t wagon any wolves last day but you were saying he was a villager less than 24 hours ago

ugh

i've been typing up a response for a couple of minutes but you are basically right - the position that i'm arguing from is contradictory, or at least, the thought process in my brain is hard to explain right now and i understand why it comes off weirdly

i'm trying to make the point that there are a lot of people in this game that i do not have to STRETCH to find wolfy, which means that i disagree with the notion of: "it is difficult to locate people who might be wolves"

but if i extend further beyond that, it is also true that almost everyone here looks villagery in some way. it is true that i've found villagery things from LC, JPIC, and oddmerta at different points throughout the game - i just don't feel like those reasons are ample justification to remove them from my POE

like, we're in a position where the majority of the people in this playerlist have been "cleared" or given strong town equity for some reason or another. that leaves a tiny pool full of names that are not ~super~ towny but have towntold at certain points throughout the game

that usually implies that something about the gamestate is rotten - so i can understand why that could naturally lead to the thought process of: "SPF must just be a deepwolf"

i don't think that all of the wolves in this game are contained within the POE that you have. i just don't. i think that your POE probably has a wolf or two but i would be surprised if it solved the game

my guess would be that there's a wolf or two in the POE that you have and then other wolves in the people that you've cleared

i know that's not a super inspiring pitch but that's how i feel about the game right now

also, i village read long con in the moment because in a thread that was largely stalled and filled with unmotivated people, he was one of the few people putting effort into solving and getting peoples heads back into the game. a 5 or 6 vote wagon piled on him out of nowhere and my gut instinct was that he didn't have enough people shielding him/deflecting from him for him to be a wolf, and that it would be a bad idea to kill one of the few people putting in effort

my perspective is slightly different now that i saw how eager people were to flip their votes off of long con - i fully believe that there was at least one wolf that opportunistically hopped onto the falcon wagon once they saw i switched

maybe fingersplints is a wolf

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:33 pm i don't think that all of the wolves in this game are contained within the POE that you have. i just don't. i think that your POE probably has a wolf or two but i would be surprised if it solved the game

my guess would be that there's a wolf or two in the POE that you have and then other wolves in the people that you've cleared

i know that's not a super inspiring pitch but that's how i feel about the game right now

okay, who am i misclearing? if you had to do a distrustfall for everyone i’ve taken out of my poe and convince me they could be a wolf what would it look like?

the problem with what you’re saying is that we don’t have unlimited eliminations to kill everyone who might be a wolf. if i could kill everyone but myself right now and win us the game i would but we only have a finite amount of chances. we have to clear some people by necessity because we don’t have the kills the flip them all

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:37 pm the problem with what you’re saying is that we don’t have unlimited eliminations to kill everyone who might be a wolf. if i could kill everyone but myself right now and win us the game i would but we only have a finite amount of chances. we have to clear some people by necessity because we don’t have the kills the flip them all

i don't disagree with you - we only have so many mischops, and we're going to have to bank on certain names being town even if they aren't "clear" for the sake of moving the game forward - that's just how mafia is.

i'm just being honest about the fact that i am skeptical that the POE we currently have is a game-winning one, but i do agree that it's a good place to start. there is almost definitely a wolf in that POE, and that makes it a good enough place to hunt in. my hope is that one wolf from the other team getting chopped will create a domino effect of making their other partners look a lot more obvious

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:33 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:33 pm i don't think that all of the wolves in this game are contained within the POE that you have. i just don't. i think that your POE probably has a wolf or two but i would be surprised if it solved the game

my guess would be that there's a wolf or two in the POE that you have and then other wolves in the people that you've cleared

i know that's not a super inspiring pitch but that's how i feel about the game right now

okay, who am i misclearing? if you had to do a distrustfall for everyone i’ve taken out of my poe and convince me they could be a wolf what would it look like?

if i knew who you were misclearing, then this game wouldn't be nearly as hard. i don't mean that in a snarky way - it's just not my top priority right now. i wanna hunt with you to find the wolf(ves) in the list that we both mutually have, and then work backwards from there

Distrustfall

Nanook - how hard is it, as a wolf with a vig shot, to pick a playe that is a really towny pick, and then claim? Didn't Nanook do exactly that for the win in a big game last year?
Odd - busdrivers can be mafia. popular theory is that troopers can as well
Esooa - she purportedly has a role that could have saved a number of town lives, but she didn't even try to. 3p at best.
Strawhenge - cleared for seeming towny. Gre-e-e-eaat... Nothing to see here Seriously though, is there anything besides his personality that earned the townread?? What. Has. He. Done?
Staypositivefriend - phony townclear earlier. Hally's wolf assessment, to me, earlier today, that I called 'convincing'.
KZA - what clears KZA... being a trooper? What else?
Long Con - guy owes me twenty dollars
Fingersplints - I've been vocal enough about my splints suspicion
JPIC - Having a track don't mean squat to alignment, if it's even true. Did he give his other night results? Probably, I forget
Michelle - meh
Alison - claims town PR with solid reads in the first post, and is still alive. Joseph said to take her out, maybe if she doesn't produce a pelt tomorrow we'll follow his orders
BoKnows - a slot it would be nice to clear either way, very unknown, and that's troubling

i know you’re not trying to be snarky. i didn’t take it as such. i’m just genuinely curious who you think i could be misclearing and why

but it’s not a priority

lc, re: nanook -

not exactly. in that game nook had a loyal day vig. in other words he was compelled to target a fellow wolf with it. so he shot a teammate that had already been red checked

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:54 pm lc, re: nanook -

not exactly. in that game nook had a loyal day vig. in other words he was compelled to target a fellow wolf with it. so he shot a teammate that had already been red checked

Yes, I remember now.

But clearing him for a towny dayvig in this game? Is that wise? It's not dissimilar enough, especially in multiball.

Most of the things spf has said today are very similar to my own views of the game, which increases my belief that she's town.

Wait, Nanook's in this game was a night vig, my bad. Same point though.

i’m not clearing nook for his claim because he shot a wolf. i’m clearing him for it because wolves have two kills per night and with that much wolf kill power there has to be town kill power too. the game is not balanced otherwise

nook is claiming to be that kp and we currently don’t know of any other possibly villa kp so i assume he has to be a villager until further notice

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:03 pm i’m not clearing nook for his claim because he shot a wolf. i’m clearing him for it because wolves have two kills per night and with that much wolf kill power there has to be town kill power too. the game is not balanced otherwise

nook is claiming to be that kp and we currently don’t know of any other possibly villa kp so i assume he has to be a villager until further notice

That makes sense.

do you really think both wolf teams get a kill every night AND they get an extra vig shot on top of that? so we’re supposed to deal with three villagers dying a night and town has no way to kill wolves at night? that seems ridiculous to me

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:50 pm i know you’re not trying to be snarky. i didn’t take it as such. i’m just genuinely curious who you think i could be misclearing and why

but it’s not a priority

gth, i think that you have the highest odds of misclearing someone between oddmerta/alison (especially if the majority of the people in the POE we currently have are villagers, since alison has been silently pushing that POE for a while now). your point about nanook is solid

the reason i'm not prioritizing finding the Deeper wolf is because my reads are already messy as is - i got sucked out of this game for a couple of days and getting back into it is fairly difficult