The Syndicate

Checking in. Have read nothing. Might later.

Whatevs

Dragomir
Epignosis
MacDougall
Oreki
SokothQultuq

Civilians

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 10:58 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 8:38 pm Dragomir
Epignosis
MacDougall
Oreki
SokothQultuq

Civilians

Not you. You don't get that.

Oh it's civ LC. I've never seen him so clearly before.

Rej wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2019 5:19 am I went sleep and came back and that's it? It is day one if I am correct and the people above me actually fluffed? Am I reading that correctly?

You sound guilty.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2019 1:44 pm I thought maybe Mac's thinking was that scum would be more likely to read the rules thoroughly and to want to be careful to avoid the extra vote thing. And I say this as a civilian who read the rules thoroughly but also I just voted early enough that it didn't matter lol.

Yeah

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2019 5:58 pm How did I not answer why I thought it was weird? Kyle is all over the place being like I'm not gonna read anything and then explaining what the rule is then accusing creature out of nowhere who had assumed they knew them from some other site. It's a strange interaction. What response are you looking for?
I think either one of them could be bad because they're both acting weird but I'm really not familiar with either of them or their play style. Mac has been uncharacteristically quiet this game.

I've been busy. Life goes beyond Mafia sometimes. I know shocking right.

I believe Kylemii's instincts. Creature pinged me more than anyone else in catch up.

Sorry Sabie I had a pretty strong town read on you but I couldn't get a spare minute to actually defend you. Instead I will try to avenge you.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 2:22 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 19, 2019 6:02 pm MacDougall, sabie12, Sokoth, maybe indiglo if we decide to follow Epi.

Am fine doing any of these.

A pretty big salad here. I'm surprised nobody called him out for it, at least from what I've read, since salads are an apparent scum tell in this forum.

I'll fully read the thread when I wake up.

I called Creature out by voting for the bastard.

this is the part where we lynch Creature

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 7:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 7:30 pm this is the part where we lynch Creature

Why do we do that?

For once can the answer just be "because I am pretty sure he is bad"? Like just for once?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 9:09 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 8:42 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 7:41 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 7:30 pm this is the part where we lynch Creature

Why do we do that?

For once can the answer just be "because I am pretty sure he is bad"? Like just for once?

Yes. [VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Rej wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 3:04 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 2:23 pm @Rej what don't you like about Mac's play?

there is multiple things accumulating together.
1. the way Mac entered DP1 claimed himself and the others town, he then didn't contribute much for a wagon giving me the vibe of him not caring for the lynch train, following his jump on Creature on DP2 which quite was an obvious train I fell also for it but I didn't know what do back then
2. Drago obviously tunnels on me again which I like. We can bring back drago's statement of admitting chainsaw defending Mac. Am I dumb or just tunneling myself on Mac? Atleast I try to combine the clues.

Drago and Mac are scum.

Counterpoint. No.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 4:32 pm I don't particularly trust Mac. I mostly don't trust Mac though, I don't distrust him specifically for this game. Like, not any more than usual.

To me, in a game where infodumping isn't allowed, saying "Can you just vote there because I asked" carries a bit more gravitas, because it's about the level of strength one could use to make a "I alignment-checked Creature and he's bad" statement.

I didn't.

Rej wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 3:06 pm lemme add that Mac was pretty confident with his statement and it included Dragomir aswell, it is still bothering me now that Dragomir starts again to take action, right after I explained how I change my focus to Mac. Seems like Drago tries to distract from me and my strategy is showing fruits. My scumradar is heavily on Drago and Mac this time.

Heavily wrong sadly.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:18 pm Here's why Creature is evil:

1. He softly named a bunch of people he could vote for and gave no reasons for any of them.
2. He attached my name to the end of the list, as though I had some important leadership role in guiding it, which in turn could be used against me should indiglo appear civilian. It had no civilian utility, but had plenty of use for mafia.
3. His reaction to the votes was not a concerned effort to find mafia: It was to give another list.
4. His teammates saw he was in trouble and washed their hands of him.
5. He's given up.

When huge wagons form in the early gamr they are almost always Mafia because Mafia teammates get apprehensive about rushing to create counterwagons when it's their teammate. They are far more likely to create effective counterwagons when the huge wagon is on a civ because it makes them look good when the person flips civ and their vote wasn't there. Then there is also the outlying possibility that he's just being bussed and you have a real high percentage scumflip here.

If Creature is a civilian one of or both Dragomir and Nutella are bad for trying to cash in on civ reading him imo.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:37 pm Do you really think it's impossible for me, drago, and creature to all be town? Bc that's a universe that feels pretty likely to me here

Nothing is impossible. Mafia is just all about odds. You think it's "pretty likely" suffice to say that I would be very shocked.

We will only need to cross that bridge if Creature flips civ.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:44 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:37 pm Do you really think it's impossible for me, drago, and creature to all be town? Bc that's a universe that feels pretty likely to me here

Nothing is impossible. Mafia is just all about odds. You think it's "pretty likely" suffice to say that I would be very shocked.

We will only need to cross that bridge if Creature flips civ.

What if you're the scum and you know he'll flip civ and you're just beyond delighted that drago and I have inadvertently set ourselves up as the next easy mislynches?

What if? If you think that's likely you have 12 minutes to do something about it.

That "extreme theory"?

Wtf. It's hardly an extreme theory. It is logical and observed over nearly 10 years of play.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:57 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:55 pm That "extreme theory"?

Wtf. It's hardly an extreme theory. It is logical and observed over nearly 10 years of play.

Extreme in that I don't really think it's the case, idk probably not the right word. Like tinfoil

So you disagree and chose to describe my observation as extreme?

Yes incorrect word indeed.

Can't believe how quiet an end of the day that was though. Bizarre.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:03 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:01 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:57 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 5:55 pm That "extreme theory"?

Wtf. It's hardly an extreme theory. It is logical and observed over nearly 10 years of play.

Extreme in that I don't really think it's the case, idk probably not the right word. Like tinfoil

So you disagree and chose to describe my observation as extreme?

Yes incorrect word indeed.

What? I don't follow. I think we're talking about different things.

What extreme theory are you referring to?

[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] days over.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:09 pm The only way Nutella and I are mafia is if Creature is mafia as well. Like if Creature is town, then we can't be mafia as I find it bullshit that mafia would try to stop a mislynch and start a new wagon. That makes no sense. Mafia needs to get mislynches, and they just stop one for town cred? Nonsense.

Call this wifom, I don't care.

So you think Mafia don't attempt to cash in on civwagons by refuting them? Never before seen that?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:11 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:09 pm The only way Nutella and I are mafia is if Creature is mafia as well. Like if Creature is town, then we can't be mafia as I find it bullshit that mafia would try to stop a mislynch and start a new wagon. That makes no sense. Mafia needs to get mislynches, and they just stop one for town cred? Nonsense.

Call this wifom, I don't care.

See this man right here is lock fucking town regardless of creature's flip.

I think he is. I don't think you are.

Mafia need to do more than get mislynches to win Dragomir they also need to prevent their own. Avoiding civ wagons is a good way to do just that. A civ wagon that forms incorrectly is almost always formed by civilians. It's the ones avoiding it that I look at. Invariably people immediately pick through the people that form the wagon to look for bad guys which Creature himself did already ironically.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:17 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:13 pm

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:09 pm The only way Nutella and I are mafia is if Creature is mafia as well. Like if Creature is town, then we can't be mafia as I find it bullshit that mafia would try to stop a mislynch and start a new wagon. That makes no sense. Mafia needs to get mislynches, and they just stop one for town cred? Nonsense.

Call this wifom, I don't care.

So you think Mafia don't attempt to cash in on civwagons by refuting them? Never before seen that?

Nope and yep. Never seen that in my entire mafia career.

I assure you that you are very wrong and if you assume that you will lose more games here than you win.

That's literally what you and nutella did.

I mean from my perspective. The Long Con wagon you built never had petrol.

You should consider whether nutella is buddying you Dragomir.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:22 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:18 pm Mafia need to do more than get mislynches to win Dragomir they also need to prevent their own. Avoiding civ wagons is a good way to do just that. A civ wagon that forms incorrectly is almost always formed by civilians. It's the ones avoiding it that I look at. Invariably people immediately pick through the people that form the wagon to look for bad guys which Creature himself did already ironically.

I get what you mean here. It would be bad if they're avoiding the lynch BUT, if a player is actively trying to get a new wagon formed and completely stop the progress of another lynch cause they believe it's a mislynch(and it really is) then I find it hard to believe that the person is mafia.

The Mafia player has no choice but to make their counterwagon building look sincere. Why wouldn't they try hard to create a counterwagon? The sweet spot is looking like you're trying hard but the original lynch goes off anyway.

Anyway conjecture. Let's await the Creature flip.

Not ideal.

Hey [mention]juliets[/mention]!

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 8:46 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 8:43 pm Hey @juliets!

Who's currently your strongest scum read Mac?

nutella

Okay so where I am at is I see three possibilities.

1. Given that the Creature wagon was indeed a civ wagon with very little push I am still looking for those who pushed against it for cred. These players would be showing TMI. Nutella, indiglo and birdwithteeth are the most questionable here, the latter two because they found their way off the main wagon with very little effort (when I observe BWT specifically, but would expect both, to me more likely to just agree to the main wagon if they are indeed civilians without info). Nutella more so because there is this sort of union between her and Dragomir but the tones are different. Dragomir gets a bit of a pass from me because he sounds more aggressive and is exhibiting more civvie doubt. I am gut and tone reading Dragomir town but Nutella has a more stiff feel in her posting.

2. Maybe we just have a lazier than usual Mafia team and rather than attempting to create some civ credit they chose to take the day off[/b] and just let the mislynch unfold and that I missed it entirely because I was blinded by my own read. I don't think LC and Epi are guilty of this, because Epignosis and Long Con were proponents of the wagon even before I kicked it off, they were not passively agreeing with it like some others. Juliets is someone who comes into question here, because she was on the wagon yet now in light of the flip is choosing to hitch herself to the nutella/Dragomir bloc... which I would do if I was in her position as Mafia. I find it questionable that Juliets has gone from being a proponent of the Creature lynch to now aligning herself with the primary objectors of it. It's a bit too quaint. DrWilgy is also a concern also is the one that put the third quick vote on that wagon and did so with a minimum of fuss, which I find strange for Wilgy who loves competing wagons. I also want to look at how Oreki and Matahari got their votes on to the wagon.

3. It is possible that we have a mix, something like the majority of the Mafia team choosing to be passive with one person angling for deepwolf status. Mathematically this is probably more likely, also supported by well as the fact that most Mafia teams don't bloc vote (they should but don't). In this scenario it makes sense that we would have something like a Nutella, DrWilgy, Juliets team, with Nutella taking the opportunity to pocket Dragomir and steer clear of the wagon to infiltrate any forming town bloc, with DrWilgy just relying on wifoming his way out and Juliets taking the safe option as she is want to do.

Lastly I am sorry Creature. I hope to see you in the next game, you play well.

Sokolth appears to have missed the vote altogether which is also quite suspect to me.

Dragomir
Epignosis
Long Con
Rej
SokothQultuq
Matahari
Oreki
indiglo
birdwithteeth11
DrWilgy
juliets
nutella

I am a little disappointed that I haven't got any really strong civ reads.

Part of the main reason why I wanted to lynch Creature is because I considered Creature a likely proponent of the decision to kill Kylemii. Since that's been disproven, it makes it more likely that Kylemii was killed specifically in order to make Creature look worse. That makes option 2 more credible.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 10:57 pm Dragomir
Epignosis
Long Con
Rej

Matahari
Oreki
indiglo
birdwithteeth11
DrWilgy
juliets
nutella
SokothQultuq

Updated. I am seeing Mafia Sokoth here and I will explain why in the next post.

Sokoth's ISO is all about Kylemii and Creature. Examples below in spoilers of seen of the crime stuff. That he is more or less "seen at the scene of the crime" is one thing. But he also had a strong enough scum read on Creature in order to have voted for Creature on day 1. Yet when it comes to day 2 when there is a legitimate Creature lynch wagon formed by the time Sok enters the fray, he's evidently seen enough from Creature to back off ... but eventuallys backs off to nowhere and fails to register a vote.

This is a pretty strong indicator that he didn't want any part of what he knew was a mislynch.

SokothQultuq wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 1:32 pm I'm at work through the rest of this phase today so my activity is going to be low, but this is my take right now and where I stand.

So I have my own reservations about Creature, he looked good day one just from his reactions and I lacked enough to really point the finger anywhere else so I'm backing off on Creature and watching because I'd like to see more from them so I can get a better read. While I'm still slightly suspicious, I'll hold that one in reserve.

Rej is still pinging me with his reactions, while his explanation of his "I'm New" thing was good. I still kind of feel like its a ploy so he's also on my radar.

Dragon I'm leaning more towards the good side. He's seemed somewhat consistent to me and if his method is to be believed he's staying true to his word so far.

I kind of agree with the information that's been said about LongCon's activity. I didn't see it before until it was put into context. I'm at work through the rest of this phase so I will try and get a good read on LongCon again, but I'm leaning this way as well.

Most everyone else I'm having a hard time getting a read. Partially due to lack of activity.

The above is his first day 2 post. Now I might not be a Mafia academic but I'd call this one salad. I see no reason he has chosen to pass comment on this select group of players and not others. To be frank I think the post is just pingy as hell salad or no salad. Most notable here is the first paragraph which is just all over the place. He's suspicious, but Creature looked good, he lacked enough to point the finger so he's backing off, he wanted to see more to get a better read but he's still suspicious. Fast forward to EOD and he got way more out of Creature, he found nowhere better to put his vote and a Creature wagon was formed by then. I see very little reason why a civilian Sokoth doesn't just drop a vote on Creature here and then try to work the rest out. Surely someone struggling to keep up isn't THAT engaged.

To some degree Sokoth's ISO is pinging me so much I don't really know where to focus.

SokothQultuq wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 11:34 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 10:55 pm Sokolth appears to have missed the vote altogether which is also quite suspect to me.

You must have missed the part where I said I was at work?

Damn that's a hell of a shift.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 12:37 am I think that's bad reasoning, Mac. If a train has five, six votes on it, hell, what's one more?

Eh you don't have to agree with my mindset, I welcome the debate but I you'll need to be more clear about what you're arguing against? I presume you are saying that there is too much room for mafia AND civs to hide their votes on the wagon but I thought I was pretty clear in identifying the specific ways in which they do it and what that means.

Okay so them arguing against a civ mislynch doesn't make them Mafia, but it sure as hell doesn't make them town. That's a terrible reason and if that's your only one I'll be voting you as soon as this night ends.

I know you think deeper than that juliets. I know you know better than to civ read people just because they argued against a wagon.

Just making an observation.

1. When I postulated that Dragomir was being pocketed by nut he said that he agreed but then closed the post by saying it wasn't a strong feeling. His last post of night 2 was very similar about me. I don't like it. He's afraid of outright calling either nut or I bad.

2. Epi wanted to lynch him. Dragomir avoided engaging Epi during night 2 beyond saying "good luck with that". Because he knew Epi wouldn't be here on day 3.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 7:02 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 6:35 pm 1. When I postulated that Dragomir was being pocketed by nut he said that he agreed but then closed the post by saying it wasn't a strong feeling. His last post of night 2 was very similar about me. I don't like it. He's afraid of outright calling either nut or I bad.

2. Epi wanted to lynch him. Dragomir avoided engaging Epi during night 2 beyond saying "good luck with that". Because he knew Epi wouldn't be here on day 3.

"Hey everybody, follow my lead! I did so well with that last time with Creature!"

Okay I'll stop trying then. No worries.