The Syndicate

I don't think I'm gonna stay up much longer tonight, but fortunately the day is still 48 hours so I have plenty of time to say my bit. I'll probably be more active in the last 24 hours, though.

To everyone else: you should ONLY vote within Wilgy/me today. Davos's flip should confirm to you that the Landlord is on the East side and can only be one of the two of us.

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

You played a really good game, mate.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:53 pm Yeah, this is bad. "If Davos flips town [...] one of these names is mafia."

Because mafia would want a day wasted.
My point is, we CAN get the mafia that way, but we have to take the risk.
It's fine though, I'll flip today.

Legacy is sig and Epi are town, I believe mafia are within Wilgy/Delta/leetic and Davos if it's a separate slot, less likely Delta than the others.

Thanks for a great game, and I hope you guys pull through

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:48 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:40 pm I would love to just punt Davos into the sun with absolutely no regrets but I'm still thinking everything through again because I dont have complete confidence in that move. I think they're objectively wolfy but if they're controlled by a player in the game, we're about to shoot ourselves in the foot.

I voted Davos to see how each of you would react, and seeing leetic, Wilgy and Epi follow my vote, I'm a little worried. However, it's given me important information, and it's that if Davos flips town or is attached to a player, one of these names is mafia. I think it is entirely possible that two are mafia. If Davos flips mafia and is attached to a player, one of those votes is likely the puppetmaster.

So I think we should go ahead and flip them. Worst case scenario, we are in XyLo tomorrow and we have a Davos town flip with a narrow PoE. Best case scenario, Davos flips mafia and is independent of other living players.

That is my verdict.

I don't know how much I buy this.

The wording is suspicious on top of that. "I think it's entirely possible that two are mafia."

Nothing whatsoever has changed this entire phase to move the needle in that regard.

[VOTE: WinwardAway] aubergine

Two as in, both Wilgy and leetic. I don't think it's you.

I would love to just punt Davos into the sun with absolutely no regrets but I'm still thinking everything through again because I dont have complete confidence in that move. I think they're objectively wolfy but if they're controlled by a player in the game, we're about to shoot ourselves in the foot.

I voted Davos to see how each of you would react, and seeing leetic, Wilgy and Epi follow my vote, I'm a little worried. However, it's given me important information, and it's that if Davos flips town or is attached to a player, one of these names is mafia. I think it is entirely possible that two are mafia. If Davos flips mafia and is attached to a player, one of those votes is likely the puppetmaster.

So I think we should go ahead and flip them. Worst case scenario, we are in XyLo tomorrow and we have a Davos town flip with a narrow PoE. Best case scenario, Davos flips mafia and is independent of other living players.

That is my verdict.

What I'm looking for is that discrepancy in solving logic, the players who are more one-sided in their hunting because they are really only looking for one wolf.

I believe that both of leetic and Wilgy are mainly focused on pushing each other, even though they mention other possibilities (me). But leetic was focused on me when I was posting and Wilgy was not earlier. They have pushed more than one player today.

Wilgy has echoed the same thing about me that I've said about him — straight PoE, but a game-losing yeet if town. He has, however, been pushing only leetic, despite admitting i should be the other wolf from his pov.

The difference I see here is that leetic has been focused on pushing whoever has a kill tonight, and Wilgy has been focused on pushing whoever he thinks is wolfiest with a secondary goal to solve the game state as a whole.

It's really hard for me to say whether I think focusing on one player at a time or stepping back to consider the bigger picture is townier because I have seen both moves come from town. I believe seeing the bigger picture is slightly townier because wolves often get stuck on details more easily. For wolves, it's easier to tailor the narrative in a way that town might not easily notice if they talk only about details. So off the top of my head, Wilgy is townier.

To be fair to leetic, I've seen them get stuck on the fine details before as town, and that's why I'm not jumping to vote them. But I also don't really believe Wilgy makes the nutella kill on purpose (mechanics like a redirect or bus drive could obviously change that). There's not really any evidence in the thread that I believe would point to anyone knowingly redirecting Wilgy, because leetic only voted him after moving off me, and nobody else has moved to vote there. So that's pretty much out of the question, and more likely the kill was either a bus drive or it was intentional and from another source. But that's the whole problem with NKA; it's not getting me anywhere.

Objectively bad in the sense that the wolves are forced to sniff each other out, so they will try probably as hard as town to solve the game. But they will subtract themselves out of the equation and push agenda to fill the gap.

Why is no one giving thoughts on the leetic vs Wilgy thing BTW?
I have an opinion on who comes out looking townier but it's surface-level and i would not call it W/T immediately because I think doing so is objectively bad solving

I'm almost home btw, you'll have my full attention soon (it got a little difficult to type in the rain)

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:51 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:45 pm I am picturing choking the life out of Kermit the Frog right now.

After grabbing the lingerie, hopefully not in any way related to that.

I almost spit out my beer, congrats

Be back in a bit, I don't want to miss eod actually
I'm out with friends though so my attentions a bit scattered

You guys are still arguing but you're consolidating on Davos and I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not

I'm still mulling over whether it's more likely Davos is separate from a player or attached to someone else in the game and I haven't reached a conclusion tbh
Cause I felt like scrappy was a separate player, and that's primarily why I'm concerned about Davos.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:37 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:36 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:32 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:30 pm I'm actually at the point where if I'm wrong on Leetic, just toss me next cycle.

Hell, toss me this cycle, and if the game is still going on after my flip, toss Leetic next phase.

You know there are two seperate wolves right? This post feels really fake

Aye, if I need to flip to toss you and they eventually get to the remaining wolf that's perfectly fine.

And pray tell, how will they do this exactly? Mislynching me means it's 3-1-1 discounting Davos, and if town gets nightkilled it's basically unwinnable.

I hear what you're saying, and I agree that if you're town and you flip we can't win, but it's the same thing with Wilgy, with Davos, with Delta... Anyone we choose to yeet. Also me. If we yeet town today we can still yeet a wolf tomorrow, but the morale might go down which is the main problem today. Tomorrow, regardless of today, we absolutely need to yeet a wolf.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:31 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:24 pm You know what, fuck it.
[VOTE: Davos] aubergine
If you guys decide you wanna kill me over Davos, that's totally fine tbh. I'll take the gamble even at low odds.

You need to vote in the poll for it to count. Besides, if you're town, how would you expect town to win if you are lynched today?

I don't really know if I expect town to win anymore :/ this is a mess.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:29 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:26 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:08 pm Wilgy has essentially been forced into an unsustainable PoE, while WWA at least seems to realize the gravity of their situation.

How is WWA exempt from this unsustainable PoE? Why am I the focus here, what makes us different?

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:08 pm While I do hold that the nutella kill makes more sense from WWA than Wilgy, as I said earlier it may be wiser to kill the wolf that didn't make the kill, in case the "one team kills on odd nights and the other on even nights" theory is true. Further, WWA has been very active, and while powerwolfing is a thing Wilgy seems content to mostly skate by and only lash out while he is in danger.

Or it doesn't make sense from any wolf on the east side to do so. "Wilgy seems content to mostly skate by and only lash out" alright more discrediting.

WWA is pushing you. You aren't pushing WWA. I can believe that WWA believes the threads are split 5-3. I can't believe that you believe they're split 6-2.

Well I'm voting the sock puppet now because idk anymore.

You know what, fuck it.
[VOTE: Davos] aubergine
If you guys decide you wanna kill me over Davos, that's totally fine tbh. I'll take the gamble even at low odds.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:19 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:00 pm Ignoring the sock we’re at 4-1-1

If we misvote today and have 1 night kill then we’ve still got a final phase.

Also the flip side with my Wilgy read is he could still be mafia just landlord. So there’s that

I'm still finding it unwise to ignore the sock.

I think we made a mistake leaving Davos alive this long tbh
I thought they would've flipped or their owner would've flipped by now, whoever it is, if they have an owner. I'm leaning towards external player now, which is scary

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:18 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:10 pm This is all completely ignoring the nutella kill fwiw
I don't know that it's worth reading into anymore, cause it's all wifom at this point. Whoever made the kill obviously made a good choice because there is still no consensus today.

I think for the sake of not going in circles I should probably do this but I'm also hung up over it so x_x

If you were to only vote someone from East Facility, would you GTH vote Wilgy, me, or consider Davos?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:17 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:04 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:39 pm I don't see myself voting outside of Davos or Leetic this cycle.

My biggest qualm leetic is that I've seen them be this obstinate about sticking to a PoE based on their own assumptions before as town, even if the assumptions weren't correct. I do think I spotted an inconsistency in their logic, but I'm not sure if that's enough to make me want to vote them. They're pushing aggressively but also drawing attention to themself that way, versus Delta who honestly could be coasting with a lot of attention diverted.

I think I'm growing more frustrated that the argument dribbled down to gut takes and quotes that don't reveal the full story. If this is town we lose anyways. If there was a shred of energy put into actually analyzing what I'm saying, then I think town would at least see how things aren't lining up here for the PoE to be flawless.

Yeah, and that's why I'm still hesitant to vote you. Because I also said earlier that things weren't lining up, but nobody was willing to discuss it. On the other hand, there have been multiple people willing to vote on the West side, probably the only one actively against it is leetic. And I think it's weird that everyone's ignoring Davos tbh, but that's another matter I guess.

This is all completely ignoring the nutella kill fwiw
I don't know that it's worth reading into anymore, cause it's all wifom at this point. Whoever made the kill obviously made a good choice because there is still no consensus today.

Ok hi
I have a couple minutes but I don't think I'll be back again for eod and I need to vote
Gut tells me to vote Wilgy because there's a very high chance he's a wolf
Brain says if he flips town we lose the game and we absolutely need a wolf
But I'm probably overthinking it?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:04 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:39 pm I don't see myself voting outside of Davos or Leetic this cycle.

My biggest qualm leetic is that I've seen them be this obstinate about sticking to a PoE based on their own assumptions before as town, even if the assumptions weren't correct. I do think I spotted an inconsistency in their logic, but I'm not sure if that's enough to make me want to vote them. They're pushing aggressively but also drawing attention to themself that way, versus Delta who honestly could be coasting with a lot of attention diverted.

Diverted away from him I mean

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:39 pm I don't see myself voting outside of Davos or Leetic this cycle.

My biggest qualm leetic is that I've seen them be this obstinate about sticking to a PoE based on their own assumptions before as town, even if the assumptions weren't correct. I do think I spotted an inconsistency in their logic, but I'm not sure if that's enough to make me want to vote them. They're pushing aggressively but also drawing attention to themself that way, versus Delta who honestly could be coasting with a lot of attention diverted.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:32 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:22 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:18 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:00 pm My argument is, Nut was killed so that you could continue the push of East side players.

You're response is, 'but look, nut suspected both of you' and you then post a lone suspicion on WWA and avoid all the posts of Nut advocating for west as well.

Because that totally wouldn't case the remaining wolves to lash out at my side of the thread! I'm starting to wonder if that is the reason

Doesn't even make sense as a counter point. You're arguing that wolves are in east, killed nutella, and are now because they've put a chokehold poe on themselves, they are suddenly lashing at your thread for pursuing that PoE?

Back to the, why make that kill in the first place?

also, as I can assume this commentary is directed, I'm not lashing at your thread. I've cased specifically you, as the agenda all makes sense, and considered the others INCLUDING players on east.

Likely they assumed nutella was a wolf. Mechanical interference like redirecting is also a possibility, but there's no use speculating on it when there's no claiming. I don't see why you think that nutella would be a better kill than someone from my side or even WWA from my perspective. Furthermore, I think this is all a distraction from the fact that there are almost certainly unflipped wolves from your side. Do you really think WWA is town?

Ah, now we'll ignore mech determining the way things are occurring this game.

"Nutella would be a better kill than someone from my side or even WWA from my perspective." - I've already stated this, Nutella wanted to yeet out of the east PoE, this has been one of the pillars of my argument this entire dialogue. You've posted quotes that fulfill a false narrative about it and pretended it's not the case.

No, I don't think WWA is town, BUT I also don't think they make the Nutella kill. IF WWA flips town, I do not we win this game.

I hate that I agree with this, if I replace my name with yours. But I said about as much earlier, I think you have high wolf equity because of PoE but the kill has to have come from the West, or else Davos.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:22 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:18 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:00 pm My argument is, Nut was killed so that you could continue the push of East side players.

You're response is, 'but look, nut suspected both of you' and you then post a lone suspicion on WWA and avoid all the posts of Nut advocating for west as well.

Because that totally wouldn't case the remaining wolves to lash out at my side of the thread! I'm starting to wonder if that is the reason

Doesn't even make sense as a counter point. You're arguing that wolves are in east, killed nutella, and are now because they've put a chokehold poe on themselves, they are suddenly lashing at your thread for pursuing that PoE?

Back to the, why make that kill in the first place?

also, as I can assume this commentary is directed, I'm not lashing at your thread. I've cased specifically you, as the agenda all makes sense, and considered the others INCLUDING players on east.

Likely they assumed nutella was a wolf. Mechanical interference like redirecting is also a possibility, but there's no use speculating on it when there's no claiming. I don't see why you think that nutella would be a better kill than someone from my side or even WWA from my perspective. Furthermore, I think this is all a distraction from the fact that there are almost certainly unflipped wolves from your side. Do you really think WWA is town?

Ok, this is bullshit. You explicitly called me out earlier when I said I had no reason to kill Nutella because I'd be incriminating myself, and said that's exactly why I'd kill Nutella. You already gave a reason why I couldve killed Nutella, and Delta also chimed in to say it could just be WIFOM from Wilgy or me. Which is perfectly reasonable, tbh, cause anything can be WIFOM.

So it's not true that you wouldn't see why Wilgy would think Nutella was a good kill.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:53 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:47 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:38 pm Further, nutella voted WWA and was fairly suspicious of Wilgy. It's not like neither of you have motivation to kill nutella. Furthermore, it's not like wolves ever make strategical blunders, look at the D1 pyxxy bus for instance. The nutella kill wouldn't be smart from my point of view either, as I'd want to leave options in the other side open and killing in my side would make my worldview look more true. If Davos is a wolf though, the nutella kill would make some sense as if they can lynch the other person from the other side they'd have a good chance of winning; it would essentially be a gambit to ensure the elimination of the other wolf one way or another. Since Wilgy isn't really pushing WWA (although from your point of view you should!) it was probably WWA who killed nutella. That might make Wilgy the better vote however, for reasons I've already explained.

Chalking up a singular nk to a blunder is just incorrect to do so. If it was a blunder, WWA doesn't make it and neither do I. Killing in your side does keep your worldview in tact, BUT it also doesn't actively remove a player from the pool who was in opposition to that worldview. WWA can still be a wolf as I advised earlier, but I'm not going to yeet strictly on that being the case when both Davos continues to remain unsolved and we are incorrectly building our solve on unconfirmed mechanics.

WWA killed Nutella, yeets me, then what? What is WWA's angle going forward from there?

How was nutella a threat to my worldview when she was perfectly willing to vote both you and WWA?

She was willing to yeet *everybody* she didn't townread, which tbh was quite a lot of people

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:47 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:38 pm Further, nutella voted WWA and was fairly suspicious of Wilgy. It's not like neither of you have motivation to kill nutella. Furthermore, it's not like wolves ever make strategical blunders, look at the D1 pyxxy bus for instance. The nutella kill wouldn't be smart from my point of view either, as I'd want to leave options in the other side open and killing in my side would make my worldview look more true. If Davos is a wolf though, the nutella kill would make some sense as if they can lynch the other person from the other side they'd have a good chance of winning; it would essentially be a gambit to ensure the elimination of the other wolf one way or another. Since Wilgy isn't really pushing WWA (although from your point of view you should!) it was probably WWA who killed nutella. That might make Wilgy the better vote however, for reasons I've already explained.

Chalking up a singular nk to a blunder is just incorrect to do so. If it was a blunder, WWA doesn't make it and neither do I. Killing in your side does keep your worldview in tact, BUT it also doesn't actively remove a player from the pool who was in opposition to that worldview. WWA can still be a wolf as I advised earlier, but I'm not going to yeet strictly on that being the case when both Davos continues to remain unsolved and we are incorrectly building our solve on unconfirmed mechanics.

WWA killed Nutella, yeets me, then what? What is WWA's angle going forward from there?

Death, apparently

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:43 pm You have to consider the reverse too; if wolves are only in the other side they'd want to encourage people to vote in my side as much as possible. nutella was unlikely to do this as she suspected Wilgy and WWA, so this may be another reason why she was killed.

Whats confusing to me is actually that people in West seem to be willing to vote in West
I mean, that's not totally unreasonable but it's definitely not what I expected. You wanting to vote in East at least was more in-line with how I expected today to go

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:40 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:51 pm If Davos is a viable lunch option I would definitely include them in the PoE, fwiw
Right now I believe it's Wilgy/Delta if Davos is not a separate player, but if Davos is separate then I think they can be one of the wolves

Idk why I typed this post and never actually hit send lol, sorry

Why would Delta hit Nutella instead of Sig/Epi?

Only because Nutella also thought there might be a wolf in west
No specific reason otherwise

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:38 pm Further, nutella voted WWA and was fairly suspicious of Wilgy. It's not like neither of you have motivation to kill nutella. Furthermore, it's not like wolves ever make strategical blunders, look at the D1 pyxxy bus for instance. The nutella kill wouldn't be smart from my point of view either, as I'd want to leave options in the other side open and killing in my side would make my worldview look more true. If Davos is a wolf though, the nutella kill would make some sense as if they can lynch the other person from the other side they'd have a good chance of winning; it would essentially be a gambit to ensure the elimination of the other wolf one way or another. Since Wilgy isn't really pushing WWA (although from your point of view you should!) it was probably WWA who killed nutella. That might make Wilgy the better vote however, for reasons I've already explained.

What
How would I make the kill because Wilgy isn't pushing me? Wtf is the logic there?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:26 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:03 pm And I understand that you guys will have to vote me out, as well as Wilgy, in whatever order you want. It doesn't matter. There is no way you should let the two of us live to endgame at this point.
But you are going to have a very hard time sniffing out the last wolf once both Wilgy and I have flipped, and I just hope you can pull through.

Do you actually think we have the room for this?

No, I don't really especially if there's any chance of multiple kills again on any night.
But I don't know that there are enough people willing to form a consensus otherwise.

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:14 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:02 am Wow, the ping worked xD
Any thoughts on who you'll be voting today yet?

Good timing \o/ havent had the chance to check in until now

I saw the kill so ?_? unsure, I do want to run through things a bit first, because to me the kill either 1.) indicates one/both of you/Wilgy are mafia, or 2.) indicates a wolf on our side that's comfortable enough with their position

Because if 1, feels fairly self explanatory, it's the route people have taken the last few days. In killing Nutella, it gives pause to the idea that both wolves are still sat on your side, because there's only two of you left

On the other hand, if 2, someone on our side could have killed into yours either aiming to hit the other wolf to give them better odds of winning, while knowing they're in a better spot to do so. This could in theory apply to 1, but the issue is if we run with the theory both wolves are on your side, doing this still boxes you in because it makes killing both wolves on your side 'more' achievable, so it's not as easy to do so over hoping to get a miselim & then let the other wolf die. And if it's someone in a bad spot in our thread, reducing the miselims happening on your side then turns things back to us.

So I want to see who either of these worlds apply to, and then work from there, ideally

& the wolf ISO stuff, especially if there's still a wolf sat over our side

Ok, I didn't actually think about it that way because I know I'm not a wolf lol, but I get what you're saying about the nutella kill now. I guess that was probably what leetic was saying earlier, I just didn't get it

I kinda still think we kill in East today, it will probably be me because Wilgy hasn't shown up, and that's ok. But as I said, I do want people to give it some thought after I flip before sleepwalking into eliminating Wilgy tomorrow (or vice versa, if for some reason we flip him today and then want to flip me tomorrow).

Just make sure to think about the possibility that things aren't as straightforward as we assumed earlier. I get that I have knowledge of this and you don't, because I'm in the PoE and know I'll flip town, and unfortunately the only way you can know for sure is to flip me, same goes for Wilgy. I want town to pull through.

At this point I believe sig and Epi are town, one of Delta/leetic is a wolf (and I'll go into an explanation on this in a bit), and at least one of Wilgy/Davos is a wolf if they aren't the same slot. In fact, if Davos is an external player, the nutella kill makes way more sense as well, with the same logic as why it could be a kill from the West Facility. Ensuring the next two flips are Wilgy and me ensures that Davos would make it to XyLo.

Unfortunately I'm gonna be out tonight for the last 6 or so hours leading up to EoD
I don't really think I have too much to add to what I've already said, but if I think of anything else, I'll be sure to mention it before then. I'll try to pop in if I can around, I just won't have time to backread if there's a discussion going on.

Wow, the ping worked xD
Any thoughts on who you'll be voting today yet?

@Delta whatever happened to the rest of the Western wolf ISOs?

It's waaay too quiet in here.
I just hope you guys actually think about what I said after I flip.

One of you on the west side is just sitting back contentedly because you know that you're a wolf, and you're just not going to flip.

I know I'm repeating myself like a broken record, but it's beyond stupid to do that.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:19 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:48 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:16 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:23 pm

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:04 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:01 am

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:49 am

Why aren't you going after anyone on the other side?

Because I don't care about that.

You don't care about winning?

I don't care about playing against the hosts.

Do you have confirmation that the mafia members were evenly divided?

I can accept that as a possibility, but I'm not operating as though that's gospel.

Even if not, do you think that 2-6 is a reasonable divide? There are many scenarios where town would have been forced to mislynch D2 on the other side with that setup, depending on vigs/etc.

If they divided randomly, you're making a terrible mistake in that assumption.

I refuse to make assumptions.

I'm going to vote based on what I think and not on what you assume.

If it's split randomly, there would be around a 15% probability of six or more wolves on one side… except that would have the possibility of there being one or even zero wolves on one side, which is a level of bastardry that I wouldn't expect from this game. The wolves have to be WWA and Wilgy.

Do you really think that if Wilgy and I are the last wolves, we kill Nutella and assume we survive??

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:33 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:29 pm There are two mafia left as I read the game. And they need each other dead. I am not worried about food. Nobody else should be either.

There's nothing wrong with the civilians getting one mafia on board to kill the other.

I'm not worried about food but I'm unsure of my choice to vote Wilgy

I mean I shouldn't be worried about it from my POV
but I am anyway cause I think he'd maybe check the thread and do something as a wolf? As opposed to... not doing that?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:29 pm There are two mafia left as I read the game. And they need each other dead. I am not worried about food. Nobody else should be either.

There's nothing wrong with the civilians getting one mafia on board to kill the other.

I'm not worried about food but I'm unsure of my choice to vote Wilgy

As a reminder, I currently have 3 votes on me (leetic, Davos, and my refusal to pick food).

Don't forget about the food, guys. Especially those of you in the PoE, if you are town.

Sorry, it's been a long day
It's a bit worrying to me that we're over halfway through the phase and I'm the only one in the PoE who's been doing anything at all. And most of that has been dooming and pointless speculation. Where are Wilgy and Delta?

I mean you say that last part about if Wilgy and I are both town, the wolf split would be 6/2, but you've also said previously that you believe it's impossible for the game to be set up like that, so I don't think you believe it's a possibility so much as youre reminding people it's ludicrous. And that's fine, I don't believe it's 6/2 either, but you don't seem to be willing to consider it's 5/3.

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:33 pm So let's reflect on the situation we currently find ourselves in. This is essentially equivalent to four townies and two serial killers, assuming no remaining ITPs, which is the most common six-player setup I believe so some people think it's balanced (but swingy). Of course, that isn't counting Davos. Still, it would be wise to treat this as essentially LyLo, as there is basically no way for town to win if we mislynch today that doesn't involve wolves crossfiring, and it is not in wolves' best interest to crossfire right now (though it does lead to a bit of a Prisoner's Dilemma-esque situation). The nutella kill is either a sign of desperation, or of a wolf confident that they already have the win. It may not just be a matter of getting a wolf today, we might have to get the correct wolf, but unfortunately claiming isn't allowed so there is little mechanical information to work off. We're still in a situation where if WWA/Wilgy is t/t, one side has six wolves while the other has two, and don't let people forget that.

I'm reading this post again and I don't get a couple of things.

You accuse me of killing Nutella, and say I'm flailing, but why would I secure my own death that way? I've already been prepared to flip since yesterday, it's not gonna matter when I'm gone except that town loses one more. And that matters because we need to find wolves. You haven't stopped to think at all that maybe it's not me; you just came straight in and have been pushing me, which is fine, but it's already confbias if you're not considering other scenarios, like where it's Wilgy and not me.

You also have repeatedly disregarded the scenario where Davos is an external player to throw off the player count, or Scrappy was, and there was an odd number of players to begin with that may result in an imbalance of wolf distributions. And on that note, you've also ignored that I pointed out the kill on Nutella indicates that there's a wolf in the West. I would not kill Nutella because I'm not an idiot, I have reason to doubt that Wilgy would kill her for the same reason, and I also know for a FACT now that we do not have two wolves in the East, unless Davos counts as a wolf on their own.

So instead of ignoring or shooting down what I say, why don't you give this some consideration? Unless you're pushing an agenda.

Like geez, dude, I don't throw the game