The Syndicate

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:28 pm @ColinIsCool @DharmaHelper @juliets @Lunalee @MacDougall @nutella @sprityo @timmer Any of you targeted Jay N3 and got a result? I wonder if Jay has Thestral resulting in me getting no result (instead of me getting blocked).

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:34 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:57 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:21 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:14 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:24 am damn it but what if sprityo really did bus for the credit augh

but no, once he actually started playing his tone throughout everything is super genuine

I think he did. Mac says he wouldn’t do it but look back at Retro.

Retro was a completely different game to be fair

The difference of having a lot of people wanting to lynch Luna versus a tie in which I vote early, hop off pout and onto jack. Like the amount of chance I would need to have both Nutella and timmer vote for jack over pout is high. Essentially what I’m saying is, why jump off pout who was 6-2 at the time to buss jack?

Yeah sprityo I admit that is a really good point.

And yet...

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:08 am

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:17 am

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:14 am Colin sounds to be genuinely frustrated. I remember someone saying he's usually cool under pressure.

@Lunalee can you point out which post of Timmer that make you think he might be bad? Saw you saying his claim sounds believable but your vote is still on him.

Going to watch Grindelwald tonight ~

I've considered timmer might be bad from process of elim. But looking at his posts he looks town, and I'm moving my vote off him. Perhaps to Colin. Nutella brought up some of his interactions with/about Long Con, and he really doesn't look that great.

Colin definitely looks the worst from his interaction with the confirmed scums, Jack avoiding to vote him/LC and him voting me together with Jack and didn't move it (previously he asked to keep Sloonei's wagon after your claim and when it's between Jack and me, he chose to keep his vote on me - you're guilty of this too ). But then, I green checked him. Don't think scum would Imperio'd me twice or me hitting a dodo'ed target twice in a row. If scum have a "secret" to turn me into insane cop, they wouldn't obliviate me. N2 might have another way to fool invest (if Polyjuice is in the game - it should fall under potion ability, need 1 night to make) but Colin was not that high on sus list. Higher possibility of it being correct check.

What do you think of Nutella's and Mac's night action claim on Colin?

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:21 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:14 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:24 am damn it but what if sprityo really did bus for the credit augh

but no, once he actually started playing his tone throughout everything is super genuine

I think he did. Mac says he wouldn’t do it but look back at Retro.

Retro was a completely different game to be fair

The difference of having a lot of people wanting to lynch Luna versus a tie in which I vote early, hop off pout and onto jack. Like the amount of chance I would need to have both Nutella and timmer vote for jack over pout is high. Essentially what I’m saying is, why jump off pout who was 6-2 at the time to buss jack?

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:22 am @juliets couldn't it be N3 instead? Although they or someone else have to block me too to not get a result.

Colin, DH, Luna, Jack, Sprit have played with me on Outpost. MacD - idk if he followed the game since he's lynched D1 on that one.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:47 am OK skimming poutanko's iso and I can see it. She kind of dances around jack/barely mentions him for a while. But then when she does start going after him it looks legit imo.

One thing that perplexes me -- who obliviated her? That's bugging me.


Also:

poutanko wrote: ↑Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:19 pm I won't lynch Quin. Speed's flip gave us both scum cred not town cred. Why didn't scum keep Speed alive for today's lynch? They haven't found even night vig or no reason to keep Speed alive aka better if he dies? The lynch would be directed on Quin or me.

Why did they kill Jay after keeping him alive for so long? Why now? Did he get too close to them for their liking?

Yesterday there were 4 people iirc who tried to put a doubt on my claim. DH, Timmer, Kara and Jack. Could be Town but could be scum who will get "town cred" for "siding with Speed" who of course they knew would flip town.
DH - keep pushing evil Hufflepuff agenda or keep having a beef with Owner/Sloonei. He got a cred for lynching LC tho.
Timmer - vig claim D3 is a bit too bold, more likely town.
Kara - one of PoE, after her meltdown D1/D2? rarely post or interact with people. Only her 2nd game so idk.
Jack - one of PoE, one of people Jay went after yesterday. Have a lot of posts but barely stand out. One who started wagon on Glorf D3. If he's scum, I would reconsider my read on Colin. I still incline to believe Colin is Town not only because of my result but also if I was imperio'd N1, less likely I would be imperio'd again N2 unless scum checked me N1. Dodo at work could be but how many dodos are there to cause 2 wrong reads in a row?

[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine

@poutanko can you elaborate on the highlighted portion here?

timmer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:23 am Some quick thoughts before bed because I have another double tomorrow.

Pout got a bad read on bullz. If he was tampered with that night, would he have been tampered with again the very next night? I doubt it, he didn't even claim cop until later so...

By that rationale, either pout is civ and so is colin. Or pout is bad, which go either way on colin?

As for sprit, I'd at least consider a lynch there but can people who know glorf please reiterate how rock solid his meta is... like, there is NO WAY he was bad? None? Because juliets is awful quiet, but it seems like glorfs meta is a complete gimme?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:41 pm I respect the point that there doesn't seem to be an explicable scum motivation for Luna's move to save Sloonei yesterday. I'll still look at her iso holistically to weigh her stuff. But also I think there is reason to fear timmer tricked us early and he deserves scrutiny.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:49 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:47 pm y'know like the part underneath that's not quite the eyelid but is very soft and sensitive

Owie.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:48 pm Someone build the Kara case.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:17 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:28 pm @sprityo , what is it you see about Quin that makes you think he is bad since it's not the speed v. Quin thing?

huh? it is the speed v quin thing

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:58 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:57 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:56 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:55 pm wow, good one DH. So does the Horcrux still protect Jack or was it a one use thing? I'm just super dumb this game.

tons of linki

It protects him until we find his teammate is how I read it.

So what was your thing against Timmer about?

Tone read him as a teammate pissed/confused that Jack got outted.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:55 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:54 pm Anyone think Nutella looks bad for jumping all over the joint then landing on an invincible Jack? Or nah?

Nah. nutella jumping all over the place is usually a good thing.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:46 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:42 pm Sorry guys I just got here and started from where I left off. Just no time to look at whether to vote Jack or Pout.

DOWN WITH KETCHUP, JULIETS

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:59 pm Seriously who the fuck cops DH on night 4 of this game. So many better options. Literally anyone else we had reason to suspect and would have been a better choice. Luna talkin out her ass.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:49 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:34 pm For those of you voting Sloonei, please tell me again why you think Owner did not vote TH as self-pres. Why leave it to LC when it would have been so much more understandable if Owner had done it. Just seems like a bad scum move if they are both scum.

Wifom? Idk. I’m not voting Sloonei because of LC’s save.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:43 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:39 pm Okay listen up. I have use of the divination spell and here are my results:
N1 - Owner/Sloonei TOWN
N2 - Epi TOWN
N3 - used another ability
N4 - DharmaHelper TOWN

I didn't want to claim already. But it's day 5 and I don't want to knowingly watch a townie get lynched. So @timmer @DharmaHelper @ColinIsCool @Jackofhearts2005 make a better choice and get off Sloonei.

If you need further proof, look at my first rainbow read post. I listed Epi and Owner in dark green, since I had checked them by then.

So do we have consensus on whether Divination can be used in this manner (consecutively)?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:09 pm

poutanko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:40 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:37 am

poutanko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:17 am JackofHearts2005 And what did I get from claiming Cop and then Speed flip town? Did I get town cred? You also dropped the fact I voted Bullz 2 days in a row and never move it. Either I'm crazy prepared or I simply am a Cop.

If you're so sure I'm scum, why didn't you vote me since early? Coward.

When did I say I was so sure you’re scum?

You’re all up my ass today and I don’t know what you’re on about.

You keep shading me since yesterday and try to tie me to Colin as if we're team mates. You think I don't see that? If Colin happens to be scum, it's you who needs to be scrutinized more thanks to your Glorfindel wagon (and the fact you should know his truth meta better yet you keep your vote on him).

Glor’s truth meta can go do something unmentionable.

I’m not shading you. I’m defending Colin.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:54 am If we lynch either Pout or Colin and they flip scum, it will basically confirm the other one guilty

poutanko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:46 am

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:42 am poutanko how would they have copped Jay night 1? If they had switched your target from Bullz to Jay wouldn't you have gotten a civ reading on Bullz?

I was talking about LC visiting Jay - Speed's result. Not my result on Speed. Speed targeted Jay and got LC visiting him. What did LC do to Jay?

poutanko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:36 am

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:25 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:09 am

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:41 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:36 am @Quin @Sloonei

What do you think of my assertion that Colin can only be mafia if Pout is mafia and even then, it requires Pout to play in a needlessly risky fashion?

Furthermore, if this is the case, that’s probably the mafia. Pout and Colin. Your other suspects are all town.

Does this affect your scumread on Colin at all? Is a Pout/Colin scumteam plausible to you?

Anyone else who suspects Colin but is Pout agnostic or pro Pout should answer this question.

I don't know why pout has to be mafia when I think of my own theory of why Colin is bad. But to talk about pout, I'm at least wary about the idea that scum pout would cop claim so...openly? If that's the word for it. Pout's been wrong about one check already and if Colin is bad that makes two. It's suicidal.

If Pout is town and Colin is scum, we’re looking at a world where Pout hit two inaccurate cop checks and then got obliviated. We’re talking about hitting a cloak that isn’t in the rules and then a frame that isn’t in the rules (though the rules imply one or both could exist in secrets). Or we’re talking about Pout hitting self busdrive animals into and out of scum. Or we’re talking about the mafia misdirecting a new player to the site over Jay, Epi, Speedchuck and probably Nutella and Mac. They didn’t imperio her on N2 because they crucioed her N1 because she got a result N1.

Counterarguement: Pout was obliviated, meaning the mafia probably knew her power by N2 or N3, depending on if that power acts as a block too the night it is used.

The sheer bad luck it would take for a cop to get two inaccurate results is...well it’s not crazy bad luck but it’s pretty bad.

If Pout is scum, I don’t think she lies twice about her results because then, a lynch on either player makes her look really bad because of the above argument.

So even if Pout is scum, I think it makes Colin look town and if Pout is town, it really makes Colin look town.

Take away the lynch and rez argument and the cop check and I wouldn’t suspect Colin at all anyway. It’s a lot easier (esp in light of Timmer and Speedchuck’s handling of powers) for me to think Colin’s being brash and isn’t thinking of the best way to use a rez than it is for me to see scum motivation in his play overall.

I want to agree with this reasoning about Colin. However, I asked the question if a power would go through on the night that someone was obliviated (I was thinking of pout) and the answer was yes so I think she was obliviated night 2. If she had been obligated night 3 she still would have gotten a result. So they had to do something night 1 to find out her power. If they crucioed her though she would have been role blocked and not gotten a result night 1. Is there another way they could have found out she was the cop on night 1?

I think they might cop Jay N1 if anything. That LC visited Jay bothers me. Jay is big fish, very likely to be copped early. If scum killed based on how dangerous a player's abilities are, then they might skip Jay because he's not dangerous "ability wise" until he got too close to them.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:09 am

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:41 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:36 am @Quin @Sloonei

What do you think of my assertion that Colin can only be mafia if Pout is mafia and even then, it requires Pout to play in a needlessly risky fashion?

Furthermore, if this is the case, that’s probably the mafia. Pout and Colin. Your other suspects are all town.

Does this affect your scumread on Colin at all? Is a Pout/Colin scumteam plausible to you?

Anyone else who suspects Colin but is Pout agnostic or pro Pout should answer this question.

I don't know why pout has to be mafia when I think of my own theory of why Colin is bad. But to talk about pout, I'm at least wary about the idea that scum pout would cop claim so...openly? If that's the word for it. Pout's been wrong about one check already and if Colin is bad that makes two. It's suicidal.

If Pout is town and Colin is scum, we’re looking at a world where Pout hit two inaccurate cop checks and then got obliviated. We’re talking about hitting a cloak that isn’t in the rules and then a frame that isn’t in the rules (though the rules imply one or both could exist in secrets). Or we’re talking about Pout hitting self busdrive animals into and out of scum. Or we’re talking about the mafia misdirecting a new player to the site over Jay, Epi, Speedchuck and probably Nutella and Mac. They didn’t imperio her on N2 because they crucioed her N1 because she got a result N1.

Counterarguement: Pout was obliviated, meaning the mafia probably knew her power by N2 or N3, depending on if that power acts as a block too the night it is used.

The sheer bad luck it would take for a cop to get two inaccurate results is...well it’s not crazy bad luck but it’s pretty bad.

If Pout is scum, I don’t think she lies twice about her results because then, a lynch on either player makes her look really bad because of the above argument.

So even if Pout is scum, I think it makes Colin look town and if Pout is town, it really makes Colin look town.

Take away the lynch and rez argument and the cop check and I wouldn’t suspect Colin at all anyway. It’s a lot easier (esp in light of Timmer and Speedchuck’s handling of powers) for me to think Colin’s being brash and isn’t thinking of the best way to use a rez than it is for me to see scum motivation in his play overall.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:18 am Notably though, contrary to my erroneous memory, he never brought up nor acknowledged the point that the rezzes may have been in the wrong hands, despite his constant attention to/frustration at the lack of rezzes for the first few phases. The point I was starting to make was that he conveniently ignored this point (which was brought up by DH on D3) and claimed to want a lynch+rez, perhaps knowing that the scum had one.

The problem that I realized was that (a) I don't think this game has false flips, even with Quin's theory and (b) even if Colin wouldn't have a fake flip and was going for getting rezzed as a confirmed baddie, why would he do that? At that point in the game the mafia was down two people already and Colin was not facing much suspicion as Quin has pointed out so had no reason to "throw in the towel." But, maybe that's what he wanted us to think and thought that it would make him look like a civ who was so sure he would come back innocent and someone would want to rez him, but then that's circular because he wouldn't get lynched and that buys him town cred, so this actually doesn't rely on the scum team having a rez at all..... (which I guess they probably didn't if they just redirected glorfiets' rez) god never mind any of this I can't make any sense of anything anymore and I'ma stop typing gibberish and go to bed hopefully everything will be clear in the morning

poutanko wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:34 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:25 pm

poutanko wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:16 pm Oh wait, your delayed kill probably since Quin claim to delay you.

Who are you talking to here? If timmers bullz kill was delayed why didn't it happen day 2? But maybe you are talking about something else.

It's timmer, didn't quote him because easier to post without quote. Post with quote usually got me logged out
If it's delayed then maybe that's why we got 3 kills N2. But then the hippo should be on N1 or there's something else N1?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:21 pm *I assume we have only two bad guys left. I’ve been operating under the assumption that there’s five total for a while now, but that’s not confirmed. Either way, three dead baddies = a good chance for town, if we take advantage of the situation. I don’t think mass claiming needs to be treated as an awful strategy right now.

poutanko wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:16 pm Oh wait, your delayed kill probably since Quin claim to delay you.

poutanko wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:00 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:57 pm Because I can see exactly why Jay was killed. He was supatowning. Epi was not supatowning, he was in the background though he was participating. The Jay kill was not a surprise - the Epi kill was. I never said "let's talk about something else". I think it's good to look at who Jay suspected in the last day and night, I just haven't done it yet.

Was not a surprise, yes. But why now? Why not earlier if he's a supatown? That timing alone is weird enough and should be talked

timmer wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:56 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:47 pm
So who killed Nova night 1? I guess it's not worth worrying about but I had assumed it was you all this time.

JJJ said he blocked me, though, and he was civ, so I doubt he was lying. And I never targeted Nova.

timmer wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:21 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:17 pm
I’m still unclear on the order of events with timmer’s claim. He was both blocked and (allegedly) arresto’d by Quin night 1, then killed INH(?) Night 2, and has done no killing since then?

I haven't successfully killed a single person all game. INH wasn't me, there should be an even night version of me who handled that.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:07 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:02 pm sloonei I am tempted to vote sprityo too but his total lack of anything seems almost too bold for a baddie. I mean he openly isn't trying at all. What convinced you to vote for him? Sorry if you already answered.

I’m simply not dissuaded by his lack of activity. I don’t suspect him purely for being inactive, but to me he seems to be wielding his inactive status as a defense mechanism, rather than trying to do anything productive with his time in the thread.

I’d offer more insight but I’m currently walking to class.