The Syndicate

Why won’t the top fall?

And if final 3 had happened anyway, I’d have opened with a Juliets vote.

I went into lylo thinking I had to lynch Radishes and then shoot LLD because I didn’t know how bulletproof Radishes and Juliets still were and I didn’t want to lynch LLD, miss the follow up kill and be outted.

Would have probably shot Radishes if that hadn’t ended the game.

[quote="Long Con" post_id=573868 time=1575252152 user_id=271]
Any game that comes down to one single altered choice swinging the victory to the other side is balanced in my books.
[/quote]

But seriously, I agree with this.

If all sides played reasonably well and it came down to lylo with 2 or less nontown players, that’s certified balanced imo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:58 pm I'll explain the rationale underlying our numbers ratios and most basic balance formulations. I don't care to argue about anything or to defend my viewpoints; I simply have no time for that. Manuscripts are now my priority given that 6:00 PM finally belongs to me again. Folks may disagree with our rationale, and that's fine.

~ Foremost, the numbers ratios we are accustomed to in more classically-built Mafia games (3:1 or 3.5:1 town:mafia) must be adjusted in any game wherein role claiming and infodumping are illegal. This is a considerable hindrance to the town's usual solving methodology, and that impacts the balance of any game in which it is implemented. Generally when this rule is active for an open setup, I favor a ratio more in the 3.75:1 or 4:1 range. This game was 23:6:1 --> 3.83:1 ratio (not accounting for two-way third party swing).

>>> Additionally, this specific game added numerous wrinkles which further challenge the town approach more than they challenge the mafia approach (even if both factions have to adapt, the hindrance is clearly pro-mafia). Consider days 2-4, when town had no previous game content to guide their hunt -- on top of a private voting mechanism that severely limits town cohesion and teamwork. It doesn't make solving impossible, but it certainly makes it harder.

>>> This means that on balance, town's ability to stop BOTH the 3P and the mafia from achieving inception was pretty limited (though in the first iteration they actually did that). The more reasonable goal was to stop one or the other.

>>> I also believe the game is probably more lopsided without the very unlucky poisoning of Evenstar. The timing was awful, and it blew up everything the mafia were doing. That was serious adversity.

~ Knowledge of the game at its onset strongly favored the mafia here as well. They had a clear objective which projected what was coming and enabled planning. Town had no such knowledge and had to adapt on the fly to everything we threw at them.

~ I am of the belief that overall across the Mafiascape online, most hosts simply make life too easy for mafia teams (in ornately-designed games emphasizing thematic creativity that don't lend themselves to balance like vanilla+ type setups). I design my games with that mindset, and even still the mafia have won more than they have lost (10-7 advantage on The Syndicate).

Do I believe this game was perfectly balanced? No. Overall, I would say it's probably more town-sided than it is mafia-sided. I don't think it's a mess in that regard though. I don't think it's worse than a 60-40 win chance from the word "Go" there, and I really think it's closer than that. It must be noted that the mafia are now 2-0 in this setup (and last time town was less hindered). All three factions had a real chance to win this game, and I think the performances of all three factions reflected that. The mafia team started very strong and then fell into very hard times later. The town trajectory was quite opposite. Radish had to overcome being outed as a killing third party, and he did that.

When this game was at the final six or so, I felt every faction had an approximately equal chance to win the game. And I felt that's where they deserved to be too. I am satisfied with the way the mechanics broke down. It may not seem entirely balanced to those who played it, and I understand the mindset. I am not going to argue. I think Sloonei and I got this one as right as we could though despite the immense difficulty of projecting how it would develop.

Literally unplayable. I disagree with all of your choices.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:19 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:21 pm Good game everyone

I at the least enjoyed being correct post death, it’s too bad it was swept under the rug. It’s always the games you try the hardest that you lose isn’t it?

Big shoutout to Master Radishes and Evenstar especially for making this one hell of a challenge for me personally
You were formidable as fuck as usual. So underrated.

Agreed. [mention]sprityo[/mention] I wasn't even trying to buddy you. In fact, I was understating it because I didn't want to seem like I was buddying you. When you play hard, your towngame is real fucking good.

[mention]juliets[/mention]

You played a great game and we all love you.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:55 pm My favorite part of the game was the mafia team trying find the hidden meaning in the flavor posts.

My favorite part was when we asked Jay to make us like 8 subforums on our discord, filled them up with bullshit and then had to ask him to make us another one so we would have somewhere to submit our night actions and he called it real-night-action-channel-you-goons.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:06 pm

Actual scientific proof I'm unlynchable.

Quick lets start another game where I'm mafia and Mac is town so I can tie him for scum wins.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:33 pm @Jackofhearts2005
@MacDougall

G L O B A L

R O L E

B L O C K

We missed three kills.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:33 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:32 pm Oh God, I'm totally afraid to look at the spectator chat.
You should be. Jay talked about determinism last night.

Lol Sprityo in spechat like "Jack has to be a wolf because D1 wagonomics."

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:28 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:20 pm I thought Juliets commuted automatically every other night and purposely shot her looking for no kill. She just happened to use her commute.
I can't believe I used my commutes on the right night!

Jack: *shoots Juliets*
Juliets: *commutes*
Pawn: Juliets might still be alive because Jack is trying to blend in so he's afraid to kill her.
Jack:

We killed Nutella with a second kill gained from surviving limbo fyi.

I thought Juliets commuted automatically every other night and purposely shot her looking for no kill. She just happened to use her commute.

Had a blast playing with you all [mention]iaafr[/mention] [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention] [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] [mention]Benson[/mention] [mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention] [mention]Evenstar[/mention] [mention]Hyena[/mention] [mention]112[/mention].

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:11 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:10 pm Very well played, Jack. I was growing more certain of you over the last couple of rounds but was a bit inhibited by needing to achieve certain optimal lynches and such.

Eff you guys for lynching Colin. I was trying to take him to F3 with me.
Lol I knew you were the 3P like 6 phase ago and hard defended you so you wouldn't poison me.
This is what made me start to think you were scum. (Likewise, Mac coming out immediately to follow up on Eva's spew made me consider him too.)

But it got to a point where poisoning you was not optimal, as I needed some townies to die.

If not for the no claiming rule, I probably would have come out and asked what your wincon was since I knew if it went down to you and me, I'd still win.

Lots of really good play from the other factions. Narrowest win I've ever gotten.

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:11 pm Yeah Jack you did an excellent job. I just did not think it was your scum game at all.

Mac provided some behind the scene coaching about my normal scumtells and how to not do them.

I thought you were gonna get me, too.

I had no plan if Pawn hadn't been modkilled. I was waiting for someone to ask why Quin and Pawn were still alive and nobody would do it.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:10 pm Very well played, Jack. I was growing more certain of you over the last couple of rounds but was a bit inhibited by needing to achieve certain optimal lynches and such.

Eff you guys for lynching Colin. I was trying to take him to F3 with me.

Lol I knew you were the 3P like 6 phase ago and hard defended you so you wouldn't poison me.

Actually incepting the idea of flying to france and hitting someone in the nutsack with a baguette is pretty funny too.

Lol dickbutt

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:53 pm I can't believe Jack and LLD are missing this. They must be way busy.

We went to a Charlie Brown Christmas ice sculpture exhibit (Gaylord Texan) and then were watching Home Alone.

BWOOOOOOOOOONNNGGGGG

Mac also tried to lynch me a few times.

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:27 am This is another thing I keep going back to:

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:23 am You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.

Further, you watched yesterday I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.

Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.
This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.

If LLD and LC are both mafia, where does Mac vote if he won’t bus?

I’d rather have LC than LLD on my team at that stage, esp cause LC was a power role and LLD is vanilla.

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]

You wouldn’t by any chance want to keep pretending to be town and vote LLD would you?

[VOTE: LLD] aubergine

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck

At this point, I’m also convinced LLD has not targeted Radishes with a kill intentionally based on her math showing a wolf could shoot 3P and based on her wanting to lynch me.

I’m also convinced she does know which of me and Juliets is which.

I’m further convinced nobody is poisoned. I’m not poisoned. LLD gives a fuck. Juliets is considering going no lynch.

With this in mind, lynching Radishes means LLD shoots me and wins. Lynching LLD means tomorrow it is 2 vs 1 and I’m poisoned and town wins. Lynching nobody is a tossup. Lynching me is...I’m not sure how those numbers work out in 1 vs 1 vs 1 but it doesn’t look great.

So I’m pretty well anticipating willful ignoring of my points from LLD and Radishes to excuse their votes and a coinflip ftw between me and LLD.

Plus Jay came out and said the mafia kill would be randomized after Mac was lynched if no kill was submitted.

Kills hit TL (which got a collective “Why?” from the town) and nobody for the next several days while LLD was absent and I was present. Instead of confirmed townies like Quin and Pawn.

LLD is the wolf. It’s obvious af.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:14 pm What you have done is not game throw Jack and any assertions you are by being scum here are plainly lies.

Juliets, please just vote Jack.

If I’m a wolf, how did I miss 3 kills when there’s only one or two bulletproof players?

If I’m a wolf, what was my play, continually townreading Colin, Radishes, Pawn, Quin and Juliets? Lynching my scumreads only (plus two kills for those two mislynches and an anticipated one poison) would have resulted in at best a lylo of 2 widely townread and perhaps mechanically confirmed townies vs wolfJack.

That’s a loss every damn time. And on top of that, I decided to throw away nightkills? Bullshit.

Juliets should remember me specifically telling people over and over that Colin was town and specifically telling her that Pawn and Quin were mechanically confirmed after she had forgotten. I legitimately fought against all the lynches that would put wolfJack in a position to win. And for what? Pawn getting modkilled could not have been planned for and Quin getting poisoned was a surprise to me as well.

You’re making a case that I’m an idiot who isn’t playing to win. Or rather, you’re not making it. You’re saying pretty please vote Jack because ate is all you have. Logically, there’s no world I’m a wolf.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:57 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:17 pm I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.
Would that be reasonable? To make the 3P bulletproof? I don't think I've ever seen that but maybe it's common and I just don't know it.

Idk. I like to make my serial killers immune to nightkill or investigation or both to make up for not having teammates and because it’s easier to balance things with a serial killer who can’t just be shot N1.

We are more likely to see 3(?) missed kills if two of the three nonwolf players have at least some degree of nk protection.

Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter several times is kinda unlikely.

Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter or sk several times is more likely.

Jack intentionally kills -> Hits bulletproof players (max 2 players) 3 times is of course a thing that never happens.

It’s actually annoying me a bit that two players (cause LLD is just a wolf) are honestly considering the idea that I’m a wolf who is throwing away nks and potential mislynches. Like if I was a wolf that wanted to gamethrow, I’d have already done that.

I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:13 pm I swear this is the most complicated game I think I've ever played.

I promise to find a different comod for my next job and fix that.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:54 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:49 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)

Lynching scum is mathematically correct
What are the odds if we lynch town?
If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3
I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...
If Juliets is town and Radishes is 3p you are scum

So

I can show you the work on all worlds yeah?

Sure.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:49 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)

Lynching scum is mathematically correct
What are the odds if we lynch town?
If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3

I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)

Lynching scum is mathematically correct

What are the odds if we lynch town?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:25 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:22 pm You said it doesn’t lead to a town win. I said it could. I’m right. You’re wrong.
Okie dokie, the semantics argument, then. That's a winning town strategy too.

I never said it would lead to a town win.

You’re saying I’m a baddie by knocking down an argument I never made and then saying me correcting you also makes me a baddie.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:27 pm Jack: I'm unlynchable

MR: *rolls up sleeves*

For the record, town doesn’t have majority so if I get lynched, it doesn’t count.

At this point, I’m strongly tempted to vote no lynch because fighting hard to get a coinflip to either be lynched and lose or to lynch a baddie and immediately lose to the other baddie doesn’t sound like a good time.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:20 pm Lmao I misremembered the Eva thing.

And it still doesn't end up a great look for you.

At the time you were calling Eva scummy, and I misread your posts and said I TRed you for TRing Eva.

You never corrected me, you just said you liked my read.

(Then, despite apparently SRing Eva, you went and voted 112.)

I don’t remember this part either but okay.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:14 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:10 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:05 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:03 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:58 pm Jack's snarky post ^ is not made by a townie trying to convince us of his innocence.

If Jack thinks I'm 3P (I was expecting a light blue colour, though) then he should be making his case for LLD or juliets to be the mafia. Instead he's trying to get me lynched and effectively rolling his eyes at me and playing the 'well we just don't know' card.
I’m trying to debunk your bullshit which could cause Juliets, who has had a hell of a week, to make a wrong snap decision.

You a textbook poisoning the well. Put forth a nonsense case. If I let it stand, I’m a wolf. If I debunk it, I’m a wolf.

Just because you’re ignoring mechanical ways for townies to win (cause you’re not interested in them because you’re not town) doesn’t mean the town should. There are mechanical things that I don’t know because I’m not Juliets. That fact doesn’t make me scum.
Your mechanics are bad. Lynching 3P here does not help the town win, no matter who among us it is. We have to lynch scum first, always.

The last two lines in your post there are also not said by townies.
If we lynch you and nobody is poisoned and LLD shoots the commuter or if we lynch you and LLD is poisoned, town wins.

That’s a fact.

I haven’t voted for you because that may not be the best way to get the town to win.

You’re dishonestly pushing me because I pushed you first. You don’t really care who gets lynched but if I lose credibility, it’s less likely to be you.
But your 'fact' isn't covering all scenarios, and also contains far too many 'ifs' within each option.

Also, now you're OMGUSing as a defence. Pick a defence and stick to it.

You said it doesn’t lead to a town win. I said it could. I’m right. You’re wrong. I know there are a lot of ifs. That’s why I’ve spent all phases trying to figure out the ifs and that’s why I’m not voting you.

That’s not what omgus is. I’m not considering voting you because you said you suspect me. I’m considering voting you because you got spewed 3P by the 3P cops and there are some scenarios where lynching you would win the town the game.

None of what you’re saying effects how much I want to vote for you. I’m pointing out you’re full of shit for Juliets’s benefit (and because I like to argue on the Internet).

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:06 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:04 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:00 pm Side bar: I've not forgotten how in D1 Eva and Nutella argued with charts and things and Jack towncleared Eva for it.
The fuck are you talking about?
The time you said Eva was town because of something something arguing with nutella.

I TRed you for it at the time and everyone flipped out, so it stuck in my mind.

I don’t have the slightest idea what you are talking about.

I townread Eva for Iaafr convincing me she was the mason and I scumread her for thinking Nutella was softing mason. Neither of those things happened D1.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:05 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:03 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:58 pm Jack's snarky post ^ is not made by a townie trying to convince us of his innocence.

If Jack thinks I'm 3P (I was expecting a light blue colour, though) then he should be making his case for LLD or juliets to be the mafia. Instead he's trying to get me lynched and effectively rolling his eyes at me and playing the 'well we just don't know' card.
I’m trying to debunk your bullshit which could cause Juliets, who has had a hell of a week, to make a wrong snap decision.

You a textbook poisoning the well. Put forth a nonsense case. If I let it stand, I’m a wolf. If I debunk it, I’m a wolf.

Just because you’re ignoring mechanical ways for townies to win (cause you’re not interested in them because you’re not town) doesn’t mean the town should. There are mechanical things that I don’t know because I’m not Juliets. That fact doesn’t make me scum.
Your mechanics are bad. Lynching 3P here does not help the town win, no matter who among us it is. We have to lynch scum first, always.

The last two lines in your post there are also not said by townies.

If we lynch you and nobody is poisoned and LLD shoots the commuter or if we lynch you and LLD is poisoned, town wins.

That’s a fact.

I haven’t voted for you because that may not be the best way to get the town to win.

You’re dishonestly pushing me because I pushed you first. You don’t really care who gets lynched but if I lose credibility, it’s less likely to be you.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:00 pm Side bar: I've not forgotten how in D1 Eva and Nutella argued with charts and things and Jack towncleared Eva for it.

The fuck are you talking about?

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