The Syndicate

Could it be that Juliets death was the result of a redirect?

I guess nobody can answer that, but it needs to factor into our analysis. It's possible that one of the town players just killed a scum by finding another scum and redirecting them. Or even making them self-target, if it can do that.

I'm not going to be around nearly as much today. I need someone to take over and supahtown for me.

Everyone scumreading Juliets but nobody knows why or how or even what.

I won't be here through day end.

I think things are going well. We've got a good state of the game. Day 3, I'm going to compare my day 1 rainbow list, my reads list from Day 2, and my night post about the lynch trains and see who has a consistent baddie through-line.

That's the plan, anyway. We're doing good, ahead of the game, and I think we can get a better sense of things if we nail a couple more of these slippery fluffy cases.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm (Side note the other one could be Scotty just because I could see him as Ramses saying hello to "dom" as ramses)

I kinda want to go after turnip head tomorrow. I wonder what will happen.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:27 pm Here is the poll from yesterday for speedchuck. Blue means they voted for that person but changed off of them before the final tally.

INH - sig
MM - TH
nutella - colin, fractal, Luna, TH, niju, Golden, kyle
LC - Luna, sig, speed, juliets, nutella, scotty, INH, Golden
lap - speed, nutella
speed - Vompatti
host?? - lap

Granted, this doesn't change much. I thought there were more switches.

Juliets actually has good placement on this wagon, but I remember someone showing up and saying that Juliets was LC's teammate. Who said that? Why? State your case!

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:18 pm My vote for LC was right after yours and I did not change my vote the whole time

Good to know.

It's more of a tone/gut read, making me tinfoil. Nothing you said is incorrect. LC's lynch was not chock-full of reason.

If you're town, I'm sure your play will exonerate you of my paranoia.

Discuss.

Or get me poll pics, IDC which.

Likelyhood as LC's teammate based mostly on D2 stuff:

Likely:
TH
Niju
Juliets

Maybe:
Vomp
Coliniscool
Fractal
Lapluie
Marmot

Possible:
Sig
inh
Golden
Scotty

Nah:
Speedchuck
Nutella
Kylemii
...Luna? IDK whether to put her in 'possible' or here. Someone help.

This changes entirely if the scumteam coordinated a bus, in which case, we need to look at the latter half of the wagon. IDK who all that is.

Golden never protects teammates though so that deciding vote isn't a cincher for him.

The Long Con lynch is unique in how close it was, and how... well, there were more substantial (if perhaps faulty) reasons to lynch nutella than Long Con. Long Con wasn't even here. People were lynching Long Con because of nutella hesitance more than LC baddiness, thought there were a few signs that might point to the latter.

What does this mean? Well, if Nutella is town, she was a good target for a lynch, perhaps more reasoned than LC. And the way the vote went down, motives are pretty visible in a lot of cases.

ColinIsCool
-Likes Luna's case on Nutella. Only responds to Luna's case on LC with a reference to DDL's theories about screaming. Almost like making an excuse.

Fractal
-Voted nutella. One of the biggest drivers of her wagon. Hasn't commented since the lynch. Fractal has been on fire all game, so I don't know how to feel about this. Nutella lynch had better reasons I suppose, but Fractal pushed through on gut despite my pleas. IDK.

insertnamehere
-Came into the thread, agreed with the LC case, voted there. Threw trash on the nutella case-pushers. It's textbook suspicion or bussing. Not a whole lot of thought process to work with. Could be bussing, especially as late as he came in.

juliets
-Another pursuer of the nutella wagon. Got a bad gut feel about her D2 posts. Seemed real hesitant about everything, her reads that I requesitioned were big paragraps of shrugs and walk-backs...
Just juliets? Or scum in an uncomfy situation?
She had her vote on LC at one point but IDK if it stayed there because you dillweeds won't rehost the poll for me.

Kylemii
-Voted for nutella instead of Long Con, even though Long Con had just gone from tied to being two ahead with 8 minutes left. Doesn't seem like someone who knows LC's fate. Would have been a very risky vote if so, given the very likely/almost inevitable flip. And Nutella's lynch, like I said, had more reasons behind it (If, in my opinion, more flawed). Good look for Kylemii.

lapluie
-Possibly couldn't vote. Wasn't here.

Lunalee
-Made the case, really, for Long Con. This is before he was lynch viable, and could technically be bussing since LC wasn't doing anything, but I'm not strongly feeling that. She switched to Nutella, in the end, because LC 'wasn't there.'

Marmot
-Missed the vote, despite coming in an hour before. Busy AFK though.

nijuukyugou
-Lots of waffle, settled on Nutella. Not the best look.

Golden
-Cast the deciding vote with little to go on. Not a bad look.

nutella
-I don't have to explain why she would vote LC. Still, I think she's fine, and the reason LC got lynched is because I think hee motives make sense.

Scotty
-Gone for most of day 2. Showed up, gave nutella town cred and then hopped on the LC wagon an hour before dayend. Definitely could be bussing, as the wagon was going and Scotty could use some town cred. But 'could be' and 'looks like' are two differnt things. I don't see a definite indication.

sig
-First to move to Long Con, 'summoning him.' This is early on, but I don't think Sig ever moved. He was gone though. Agreed with Luna's nutella case. Dunno how much he saw of the building LC lynch, and whether it was town who was lucky to start a train or scum leaving a vote that wouldn't do much on a buddy and then coming back to a lynch.
How much did you see of the LC lynch, Sig? Can you detail your thought processes?
Also I think I saw some Juliets vs Nutella stuff in your ISO, can you elaborate on those two?

speedchuck
-Argued against lynching nutella for over half the day, citing her motivations. Her primary defender. The second to move to Long Con (I think.)

Turnip Head
-Never even commented on LC. 'Liked' Lapluie, 'Disliked' nutella. Didn't engage with the discussion around nutella. Not a good look at all.

Vompatti
-Voted speed early and disappeared throughout the rest of the day. NAI. Nothing is alignment indicative about this guy.

----------------------------------------------------------

Uncertain how accurate all of this is because I can't see the poll results.

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:32 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:31 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:30 pm God I feel like a male milk cow in this game. Sorry for my lack of reads or investigative journalism. I’m working more than normal this month to prepare for my departure in July (which btw is going to be a problem should this game not be over by then and I’m still alive)

Bruh I will townread you for all of day three if you download and rehost the poll images for me.

Meh. Too much work

Man, you people suck.

I'm trying to do lynch analysis here and I can't even get a rehosted image.

I was lying anyway.

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:30 pm God I feel like a male milk cow in this game. Sorry for my lack of reads or investigative journalism. I’m working more than normal this month to prepare for my departure in July (which btw is going to be a problem should this game not be over by then and I’m still alive)

Bruh I will townread you for all of day three if you download and rehost the poll images for me.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:47 am I'm not sure how I feel about speed, while he did vote for LC in the end he was probing the thread to see if we could get Vomp/Scotty lynched both who could've been easy to CFD onto and lynch as civs.

You say that as if LC wouldn't have been easy to CFD and lynch as a civ.
I'm not going to lie and say that I was confident in the LC lynch, but what I was doing was making sure people didn't get stuck in a dichotomy.

linki: no. You get an Eff for Effort, if that.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:49 am @speedchuck can ya see these?

If I could, I wouldn't be asking for a rehost. That's the same site, same image as in the polls topic. And it doesn't show up here or there.

I want to do voting analysis, but cannot currently see the poll. Can someone get me a rehost on image bb or something?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:28 am Long Con and Marmot failed to vote yesterday. Per the tally Lapluie voted for the host option? So hard to say if LC did that one last night.

Could be that Lapluie voted, then realized she was UNDER THE CURSE, and that she had to switch to 'no vote.'

I don't know whether LC's team would have him target a teammate, but it's something to keep in mind.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:12 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:57 am Can't see the polls while at work. Or any other Rico image. My work PC hates that hosting site.

It's not your fault. My work computer is stupid. I can't even access my own website on here.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:20 pm

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:24 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:53 am

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:19 am sig I didn't see a reason for your INH vote, can you enlighten me? I saw it came after INH posted a song which I didn't listen to because it is 20 minutes long. Did your vote have something to do with the song he posted?

Yup I wanted to see his reaction, which was meh. Seemed lie a Ramses slip to me, but if we think Rico's doing it nvm.

This feels damn reach-y to me. People were reacting to the weird-ass music Ramses posted, so I posted some weird-ass people to see how people reacted to it. You immediately jumped to two conclusions: that I was Ramses, and that Ramses was someone the town should lynch.

I know the first one is false, and I'd like to hope that the second one is untrue as well.

So four things I dislike about this post.
1. Calling it reachy it was a one off thing on my part to get a reaction for something that could've been a 3p move. Did I vote for him? yes, but I wasn't in any way, shape, or form pushing for his lynch. Why so defensive?
2. I dislike the explanation, not alot, but a bit. If you were just posting a song for the lolz why not say it like that? Why try to make it seem like you had some deeper meaning behind it?
3. (green) Is this really a jump though? Ramses post weird music, suddenly INH posts weird music.
However, the thing I dislike the most is the next number colored red.
4. These two parts I just hate, he goes from saying he isn't Ramses and providing a defense, to saying we might not even need Ramses lynched as town and he hopes we don't? Why say this at all, I find it to be very odd statement to make.

BONUS DISLIKE!

The immediate NO U in your next post is pingy. Considered yourself NO U U'd

This leaves me with three theories ranked from most to least likely
1. INH is really mafia and afraid he'll get lynched for us thinking he's 3p. This is why he came up with the excuse and immediately OMGUS me.
2. INH is Ramses, which would explain the red portion of his post I quoted. I personally believe we should lynch Ramses if given the chance, he's unnightkillable and if we switch to LMS I imagine that would make them a giant threat. Plus we at least know part of their power is a curse, i can only assume they've got two more powers/plagues
3. They're a confused civ.


linki: Yes and his first post had a fear, unlike DDL and Dom who both flipped civ.

1. Don't think it was that reachy, agreed.
2. Did he make it sound like there was deeper meaning? Citation needed. If you're talking about the quoted post, I don't see that as being weird. Especially considering the curse going on.
3. Same as point #1. Don't artificially inflate point numbers. -1 point.
4. The host post says we might not need ramses lynched. I also hope we don't have to, because that means we're currently facing 3 baddies instead of 4. I don't think it's weird to say this.

As for theory 3, what if INH is a civ who doesn't want to be mistaken as 3P because it's anti-town to lynch a civ, because this game might go LMS at some point, and because... he's not Ramses?

Is it possible that INH messed up, didn't use his sock puppet when he was supposed to, and posted the song? Technically. I don't think it to be as likely as Rico being the puppet, but it's the second most likely option, if we're angleshooting. I'd put INH as most likely to be ramses, but only because of out-of-thread speculation and meta-thoughts about sock puppets, not because he's acting like it.

And since ramses is possibly only a threat if we go LMS or something, I don't care to hunt specifically for ramses. And I don't think your option 1 is likely, off the top of my head.

Can't see the polls while at work. Or any other Rico image. My work PC hates that hosting site.

I'm curious as to whether there was a player who did not post at all yesterday.
Or who did not vote.

It might indicate that LC targeted them.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:23 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:59 pm I’m pretty sure scum nutella in FE adopted a hard bussing policy so I wouldn’t categorically clear her, but it does look better for her. She probably won’t be my leading candidate tomorrow.

How lucky/skilled would we be to have two mafia members up the same day though?

It's happened before, I think in MK

Nutella, golden, and luna definitely come out of this nice.

I will say a lot more on this tomorrow. I'm not even caught up.

Playin frisbee rn but great job

I'm getting emotional over this lynch and I love it

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:52 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:50 pm @speedchuck "flooded the topic" who cares

there's an hour and 10 minutes left til day ends, if we want an alternate ending it needs to be all hands

I'm not going to be here much from here on.

Frisbee game tonight.

I'll check in where I can

bruh i can't do this alone i'm on so much benedryl rn

If you're mafia I'm going to lengthen that -2 record to a -3.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:51 pm Let's lynch LC and if he's bad juliets is his teammate. That's my new theory of the game k

I'm down for this.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:50 pm @speedchuck "flooded the topic" who cares

there's an hour and 10 minutes left til day ends, if we want an alternate ending it needs to be all hands

I'm not going to be here much from here on.

Frisbee game tonight.

I'll check in where I can

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:36 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:31 pm If we flee LC,
and decide not to gut the Nut,
what should we do on day 2?

Blot the Scott?

Stomp the Vomp?

cases against scooty or vomp?

I'm all ears, mate.

I've flooded the topic enough as it is.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:51 am Scotty - super-light scum
--------------------------------------------------
"I missed a lot and no one is talking about me just farting around over here." - pls talk about Scotty. He wants us to.
"Farting around" is a good description of Scotty's play this game. His accusations are muddy, his conclusions are unsubstantiated and wrong.
His playstyle doesn't seem to have anything behind it. It's like it exists for the sake of existing. That doesn't mean 'scum', but it makes me leery.
--------------------------------------------------

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:36 am Vompatti - *mmmmmmm*
--------------------------------------------------
I can't get anything out of this. Vompatti is apparently fond of the ramses torture stuff.
Has contributed nothing.
Maybe we're supposed to wait till late game and then lynch Vomp at MYLO and lose.
--------------------------------------------------

Stuff to get you started

If we flee LC,
and decide not to gut the Nut,
what should we do on day 2?

Blot the Scott?

Stomp the Vomp?

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:27 pm Was LC yesterday’s counterwagon?

The polls are up.

I can't see them on my work PC, but they are there.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:19 pm well if it's between long con and nutella i think nutella looks worse

What if it wasn't, though?

1.5 hours left. Don't restrict yourself if this is town/town, or if there's a better option.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:14 pm So speed, I wish you could provide more detail, if something comes to you no matter how small it is that could account for the gut read I hope you'll bring it up. Also, though I am not a witch, my mother swears she is a "water witch" which is a person who can find water underground using just their senses and a stick. Yes, this is a true story. I don't seem to have inherited the ability.

I'm watching you. If the gut read comes up again, I will snatch it and describe it until it pleads for mercy.

Also how often have you tried water witching? You might have it!

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:09 pm (sorry, don't remember who, even though I think it's even on this page): since when did apathy indicate civvieness?

That was me tho

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:03 pm I love Luna’s huntiness.

Sorry to hear about your father, Golden. Send our best wishes his way!

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:00 pm @speedchuck can you expand on the differences between nut's play here and her play in fire emblem

Nut here is hesitant. She isn't giving out a whole lot of reads, and the reads that she is giving out she is having trouble articulating and stuff because they are gut.

In MK, she didn't do this. Why? Because scum don't have gut reads. They look for reasons to condemn, instead of trying to figure things out. Fractal/Colin (I forget which) had a point on Nutella where Nut was looking at Lapluie, seeing if there was reason to support a vote, and ended up going against agenda.

Combines with her motives in going after me...

I'm not saying nutella is town, but there are enough marks against it to where I don't really want her gone today.

The ISOs of Nutella and LC aren't so long if you want to skim them

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:53 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:51 pm Also nutella I got distracted and found your blog and !!! Parahumans! Pact!

We need to run a mafia game or keep up with Ward in a PM/topic or something!

omg yes I love worm and pact!!!! I'm like 2 arcs behind on ward ATM but it's good so far too. Haven't read twig at all.

I tried the first chapter of Twig and meh. It didn't hook me.

Ward is not as good as Worm or Pact yet but it's getting better, especially with the Damsel of Distress arc that just happened and the Rain arc that you're probably in the middle of.

Ahhhhh Worm is tied for my favorite work of fiction and is my second largest influence in my writing. I love it.

But I'll stop derailing the game. If you want to chat about it, we can PM or make a topic. Preferably a topic, in the OT boards.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:27 am Long Con seems more excited about screaming at the music videos than posting real content, so I'm going to look at him for a second.

He shoots down sig's proposition on day 1, but come on, who didn't.
He missed the day one vote.
He ended up on DDL's list of screaming banshees, but I'm not convinced that means anything.
Put off replying to sig with what he thought about the day 1 lynch.
Continues to scream back at King Ramses
Asks speedchuck and Kylmii why they voted for him (on what I assume was the day one poll?).

Overall feel on Long Con: He seems lazy in this game, and not very helpful. I give him a read of probably scum.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:11 pm From what I see of nutella's posts, she is very set on getting speed lynched. And speed is trying very hard in this game, which makes him a threat to town. I don't like that look on nutella. She also seems needlessly concerned with the King Ramses sock puppet account. At this point I don't see a reason to be concerned with a sock puppet account that posts random weird videos. And she's voting Lapluie, who I'm also looking at. So they are probably not team mates.

Lapluie looks like low-hanging fruit to me right now. She had a bit of a slow start, and appears to be struggling to keep up. I don't have reason to think she's not town, and I don't want to lynch her today, but I'll definitely be keeping my eye on her.

In fact, after looking at lapluie's posts, if just makes nutella seem that much more scummy for jumping from speed to lapluie. It's like she realized speed wasn't going down easy, so she found a easier target.

[mention]Golden[/mention]

Nutella hasn't been after me as hard as what Luna said, but these posts are basically the consensus? Feel free to chip in, guys.

It may just be because nutella isn't feeling well but her game here is nothing at all like her MK scumgame.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:44 pm I definitely don't think of you as an easy lynch, lol. The only time I can think of that I really went after you (correct me if it happened other times though) was when we were scummates in MK. You're not someone I would target if I were scum and you town.

IKR.

And then I survived to near endgame and you died and everyone thought you were town. And then I claimed? Trying to remember.

I'll have something game-relevant here in a minute.

Options for nutella:

A. She is scum, has seen me get lynched early on for my eager mistakes in the past, and is having a go at it despite thread consensus.
B. She is town, doesn't know my alignment, and has mistaken my eagerness and energy for the confidence I have while scum.

I think B is more likely, at a base level. Yet, I don't like the way she has approached her suspicion of me, and it doesn't look good for that reason. So...
I'm back to where I started.

I had a read of Juliets's 10 most recent posts that gave me a powerful gut scumread. I tried to go back and quantify/qualify it, and completely lost the gut feeling.
This means that either:
A. Juliets is a witch.
B. The smoothie I was drinking acted up on me.

Probably not going to happen today, but if anyone is caught up and looking for something to do, I'd love thoughts on D2 Juliets.

Fractal wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:12 pm

Fractal wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:02 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:11 pm Back from lunch.

Lots of tasty giblets being posted.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:51 pm Ugh I have the worst headache in the world today and am barely functional at work so I apologize in advance if I don't get much hunting in today. I still have a bad feeling about speed, it feels like he is trying too hard. I also think Kyle is not looking good and would like to see more content from him.

I don't actually know whether this is genuine or not. My last two town games (and my last scum game) have been super undisciplined, so I could see where you are drawing that from.

And my problem with it not being 'genuine' is that, if you are scum, you chose me as someone to lead a train against. Am I really the easy mislynch scum looks for? (Granted, I was lynched first in a few of my games on this site, but still.)

I lean toward this line of suspicion being genuine. Colin was bothered by it too, and he's in my top town ranks.

Nutella's suspicion toward me is her one biggest towny redeeming factor. I want thoughts on this.

If Nutella is scum, i don't think she was trying to necessarily get you lynched by giving that read. She already gave a negative read of you yesterday, so it feels more like a continuation of that than an actual push to lynch.

From what I can see, her D1-read on you it was basically just a hunch, and today she's picked up the reasoning of Colin and sig, that you're "supertowning" as scum.

Or is there any sign of her thinking around these lines yesterday? I don't remember it in that case. I just don't see a clear progression, or that townie spark that often appear when someone is pushing a non-consensus read and feel like people aren't listening. Her reaction now is basically "I didn't even try to lynch him, stop misrepresenting me!". That's exactly my problem though. Her attitude is basically "would be cool if people scumread speedy with me, but that's not probably not gonna happen, that's ok". I'm used to people heating up and trying to convince people they're right, or at the very least to see their viewpoint on it. She's not doing that.

speedchuck

I get notified if you quote me, or if you mention me. No need to do both.

I'm trying to figure out whether nutella looks bad if I genuinely looked suspicious. Like, I don't want to lead a lynch on her if the only suspicion is that she doesn't agree on my super town-ness.

My bias has me struggling with this.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:53 pm I have no qualms lynching Long Con. Then again, I pretty much felt like that about Dom.

What about the Vomp?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:49 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:46 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:42 pm You guys are making a mistake voting for me. I might not be right about speed or about lap for that matter but at least I am not holding back on stating an unpopular opinion. Why does that look bad?

You're, like, the only suspicious player that's actually around, except for Vompatti and nobody thinks anything about Vomp for some reason.

Would you rather lynch Long Con or Vompatti, if given the options?

Long con

Why?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:42 pm You guys are making a mistake voting for me. I might not be right about speed or about lap for that matter but at least I am not holding back on stating an unpopular opinion. Why does that look bad?

You're, like, the only suspicious player that's actually around, except for Vompatti and nobody thinks anything about Vomp for some reason.

Would you rather lynch Long Con or Vompatti, if given the options?

I'm going to [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine with Sig for now.