[END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

[Silverwolf]

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

Who/what is the civ core? People can still find you town even if they don't agree with what you're saying in the game.

Apparently Sloonei, Prisoner, Indiglo, and SVS have made a civ core. I agree they are all town so that's fine with me. However, that just gives them more of an excuse to ignore me or disregard everything I say. While Sloonei isn't doing that much, the rest are and I'm extremely irritated with it.

[Prisoner 509378]

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

I include you in the civ core and hope you'll vote with the group. Lone wolfing (no pun intended) is a losing strategy with the ratio so critical.

[S~V~S]

When I am bad, when me & my team are talking about who we are going to kill, pretty much anyone who has given one of us the pass is off the table. And I have Silver the pass hard & often in the days following the Fuzzwagon. I can't hlp but wonder if that has anything to do with my still being alive.

Calling someone scum because you are still alive is WIFOM and extreme tinfoil. If you are gonna suspect me, you better have a better reason than that. Have you stopped to think about all the failed arrests this game? If we want to look at NK's, we can look at Matt's and see how hard was pushing ika.

I helped lynch Fuzz and was not on DDL so my votes are not terrible and my one on ika could very well be on scum still.

As scum, I kill off obvious town players first regardless of what they think of me. Unless a role has been outed or breadcrumbed and I find it at night.

Your votes are pretty terrible. And again, you are talking about *you* as if you are alone when you are bad, when you actually have a team. One person is not responsible for who kills who, it is a group decision. Just like you kept saying what ika would do when bad re the Fuzz lynch, when it would not be his decision to make alone.

As I said, I am conflicted on you. Day 2 makes it hard for me to see you as definitively bad, like I see TH, Quin or sig. But, for all you telling us town is gonna lose if we don't listen to you, you don't have the "towniest" record.

Indiglo-You have suspicions on me as soon as SVS says something, so go ahead and lay them out. Stop beating around the bush. Let's hear it. I don't appreciate the shade throwing while you still refuse to put me in your scumreads. How about you tell me what YOU think instead of listening to SVS or anyone else?

Actually she mentioned it earlier. I had posted something, she saw what I was putting out. Indi never ever coattails others, we are agreeing, but she brings the awesome to a case in ways I just can't do.

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

Who/what is the civ core? People can still find you town even if they don't agree with what you're saying in the game.

Have you been reading the same game I have?

And Silver, we did not shut you out; but you insisted that we listen to you, but stopped listening to us. None of us thought ika was bad based on the thread. And then it devolved into "town is gonna lose you are gonna be sorry". We have posted our lists; what is your list? Do you have anopinion on TH?

[Silverwolf]

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

I include you in the civ core and hope you'll vote with the group. Lone wolfing (no pun intended) is a losing strategy with the ratio so critical.

If I feel like the person you want to lynch is actually a cop, I will. If I disagree, I will have no choice but to be a Lone Wolf. I've done it before, and I can do it again. Mass mislynching is just as bad as everyone going their own way.

[Prisoner 509378]

I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.

[Serge]

Well you just called my first contribution since coming back as role-fishing so...

I think there are a lot of people that could've been the seemer but I think we can cross out those ?????? names which leaves us with a few. I think if the seemer will be brought up in the game heavily it's because someone will figure out one's flip is not who they say they are, and they will use that knowledge to their advantage.

If ika is the seemer, indiglo's voting assessments may be way off base and someone will know. Someone will oppose him or go along with him(WIFOM) and if ika is indeed scum it could look like indiglo is using ika's storied and fan-favorite bandwagons as a great tool to paint certain names as scum.

[Silverwolf]

Your votes are pretty terrible. And again, you are talking about *you* as if you are alone when you are bad, when you actually have a team. One person is not responsible for who kills who, it is a group decision. Just like you kept saying what ika would do when bad re the Fuzz lynch, when it would not be his decision to make alone.

How are they terrible? I was on Radical Fuzz, off DDL, and on ika who I still think is scum. They are just fine. I've given my reads and done GTH reads already. They haven't changed, and if they do, I'll say so.

You are the one arguing that you are alive because you gave me a pass. That implies that you think this decision was based on me alone so that's why I told you what I do as scum. Yes, there is a team, but for the most part, I have never had trouble getting my scumteam to go along with me, since I was a very deadly PR hunter as scum on MS.

[Silverwolf]

I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.

I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.

[Prisoner 509378]

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

I include you in the civ core and hope you'll vote with the group. Lone wolfing (no pun intended) is a losing strategy with the ratio so critical.

If I feel like the person you want to lynch is actually a cop, I will. If I disagree, I will have no choice but to be a Lone Wolf. I've done it before, and I can do it again. Mass mislynching is just as bad as everyone going their own way.

Stubbornness is the single most common reason for town collapses in my experience. If we're headed for an 11 vs. 5 or even a 10 vs. 5 ratio, we literally cannot afford to lone wolf.

[Silverwolf]

And don't think I haven't noticed how I've been shut out of the civ core here. Even though every single person that has given a read, has called me town.

That is extremely frustrating to deal with and will result in a town loss which frustrates me because I hate losing.

I include you in the civ core and hope you'll vote with the group. Lone wolfing (no pun intended) is a losing strategy with the ratio so critical.

If I feel like the person you want to lynch is actually a cop, I will. If I disagree, I will have no choice but to be a Lone Wolf. I've done it before, and I can do it again. Mass mislynching is just as bad as everyone going their own way.

Stubbornness is the single most common reason for town collapses in my experience. If we're headed for an 11 vs. 5 or even a 10 vs. 5 ratio, we literally cannot afford to lone wolf.

I know and if I think you guys have scum, I will be with you all the way. If I think you are wrong, I will go my own way but explain in great detail why I am doing so in hopes of getting you guys to vote scum.

[Scotty]

Spoiler: show

ISOing Scotty and he's looking pretty good early on.

Hello everyone, sorry for missing out on the last day. I've read up until page 15, hopefully I'll catch up tomorrow.

I'm quite surprised at the number of new players in this specific game. The thread is going so fast and references on other games flash by here and there. Let us be civil(no pun intended), it seems some sparks are flying.

Who/what is a linki? When I catch up hopefully I'll be able to form a clearer picture. If it doesn't come in that form, I'll make that investigation board instead. No matter what happens, I'll cast a vote this day phase.

Hello again Serge, "linki" refers to when a new post pops up during the time you are typing your own new post.

What would you say is your general strategy on Days 1 & 2 of a Mafia game? Has this game been busier than what you are accustomed to?

Hullo Sloonei, I have just arrived at your post. Thanks to you and that other person that explained linki.

I don't like 0s and 1s as they usually revolve around random guessing and nitpicking the tiniest bits of text that may be construed as scummy. An example would be llama saying that Luffy complaining that the game is hard for cops is scummy is an example.

For Day 2, I generally put who got lynched and nightkilled front and center, using the posts from the previous day to try and find any links as to how both these things transpire.

I'm going to resume reading now, see you when I catch up.

I like this dude. I think he is town, mostly because we have similar philosophies.
Though night kills I'm starting to rely less and less on as crutches for suspicions.

let it be known if gleam flips bad, I'm calling Serge as a teammate.

I would like to know what happened between these two posts to prompt Serge being a hypothetical teammate of agleaminranks. Obviously we were wrong about gleam, but I'd like to know what your thought process was in calling Serge a potential bad guy here. And how do you feel about him now?

I'm still here, catching up. Had a long weekend.

You guys ever fiddle with proofs in Geometry class? If a=b and b=c then a=c? That's kinda where my mind is with the potential alignments I'm calling a "trust fund". It's still rather abstract and unfinished but I have a few that I'm toying with in my mind.

Here's a few off the top of my head:
If sig is bad, then Quin is bad.
If sig is good, then golden is probably bad.
If sig is good, then Sloonei is probably bad.
If sig is good, then I am an idiot.
If Silverwolf is bad, then ika is probably bad.
If llama is bad, then DDL is probably good.
If TH is good, then sig is good.
If sig is good, then Quin is probably good.

These are obviously my opinions but just so y'all know, that's where my mind is right now.
I can't shake in the back of my mind that the Don has BTSC with his associate and they would have each other's back. I get nervous in any lynch that the entire thing has been one big ploy (since the cops probably know the identify of at least one don at this point) to get the entire town to rile up a lynch on said Don. It would make sense why the last 2 kills were failed. I think they are Don hunting, and have their target. Now it's just turning the Mafia tide to lynch their own. That's my thought.

Hypothetically- If sig is to be lynched and comes back as the Don (heaven for bid, with how he's played he is the Don lolz), I would look directly at Sloonei and Golden as the perpetrators. And even I would have to answer for a few things I suppose.

The way I see it, I currently trust Golden and Sloonei's lead because it makes sense, and they're so sure of their reads that it's kind of startling.

and anyone looking to tunnel on sig at this point (and to an extent that last lynch) if he is bad, I am inherently going to be suspicious of. I feel sig is grasping at straws here, and if I'm right, this looks worse for DDL, who has gradually started to join the sig train before it gets to the station.
If sig is bad, you know at this point he knows his goose is cooked and would be welcoming any and everyone to ride him like a mechanical bull at closing time.

This post stood out to me at the time because Scotty shared a lot of "if, then" suspicions that I didn't necessarily agree with and I believe I asked him to follow up on it then. It caught my eye this time around, though, because of the weird suggestion that sig could be the Don and that for some reason that implicate Golden and myself. I do not follow any of this, Scotty. Could you elaborate on this week old thought process?

4 pages into Scotty's post history and I'm leaning much more town than I was before. Outside of those couple points of confusion I am reading him as consistently trying to solve the game. His thought process tends to make sense to me and he's exhibited a healthy amount of paranoia, throwing suspicions and reads around all over the place. I would say he's sharing too many reads to be bad, in a way.

The point about which I was most suspicious of Scotty for was his vote history, but after looking at it again I can't fault him for much:
Day 1: chaindeath (1st of 2 voters)
Day 2: agleaminranks (only voter)
Day 3: sig (Earliest vote on the Sig wagon)
Day 4: agleaminranks (7th of 9)
Day 5: Dragon D. Luffy (4 of 13)
Day 6: Boomslang (3 of 6)


The first couple votes don't look great in that he was not really a part of the lynches. Without knowing sig's role we can't really know for sure how to read everyone's reactions to him after Day 2. Scotty and I voted the same people each day from 4-6.

I feel better about Scotty than I did before doing this ISO, and I was already leaning town on him.

I visualized Serge's lack of interaction with gleam was inherently suspicious, though as a whole he's been pretty far removed from the game to give him a comparable look. Not sold on giving him an alignment yet.

As for my if/then statements, (not the shitty Idena Menzel musical) I had a lot of speculation that fell off after the Fuzz lynch. Also, I found both you and Golden's high post counts suspicious in leading the thread. When in reality, i realized that you all were too civvy to be bad, honestly.

"Without knowing sig's role we can't really know for sure how to read everyone's reactions to him after Day 2"
Right. I've been on the struggle bus since we didn't lynch sig, and I'm beginning to think it was a bad idea not to lynch him when we did. Note to self: lynch sig.

[Prisoner 509378]

I know and if I think you guys have scum, I will be with you all the way. If I think you are wrong, I will go my own way but explain in great detail why I am doing so in hopes of getting you guys to vote scum.

I think, at least off-hand, that you've been pretty on-board with most of the names being fielded as top suspects now (particularly those with less content). I mean players like Boomslang and chaindeath.

The points of contention will likely come at sig and Quin.

Draconus remains underdiscussed so that's someone I'd be willing to talk about. I think a lot of people have left him alone because they weren't alarmed by his predecessor Mongoose, but that's a weak defense to stand on this late in the game and I'm not inspired.

If I have any tinfoil remaining, it'd be Epignosis.

[Prisoner 509378]

Silverwolf, what do you think of Turnip Head?

[Prisoner 509378]

Epignosis, I have no idea what you think of Turnip Head. Do you think anything of Turnip Head?

[Scotty]

*Fixed*
Of this group

Quin (8), Silverwolf (9), sig (10), Soneji (12), Boomslang (15), chaindeath (18), Black Rock (19), Turnip Head (20)

This is who I think is probably bad:

Quin
sig
Boomrique
chaindeath
Turnip Head.

Of these, I feel that Turnip head is the most dangerous.

So my best order would be (in order of perceived threat based on participation, persuasiveness, etc):

TH
Quin
sig
Boomrique
chaindeath

This might also be controversial, and I've been avoiding it because I don't feel like I want to attract her ire, but why is Silver considered civ again?

I've seen many players over the years who have shown this level of frustration when they feel their reads/contributions aren't being given the time of day (whether that's accurate or not). Nearly all of them have been town. I also think her current perspective of ika shows a healthy amount of town paranoia, and I don't think she'd have become quite so animated if she were attempting to pull wool over our eyes. Finding sincerity in her posts is perhaps the single easiest thing to do in this game.

Is there a reason you think she should be given more scrutiny?

Finding badness in her votes is the second easiest thing to do in this game. I had not realized just how bad until I started reading back on her more when she abandoned her suspish of ika in order to try to catch that evil guy Draconus (who was only on one of the civ wagons, DDLs), then came back to him, and started getting mad at us for not listening to her.

I am deeply conflicted on Silver. Rereading her today did not help. I am not taking frustration into account; people get frustrated whether civ or bad. Going back, the timeline was different that I thought it was. She posted about Fuzz' bad vote before TH brought up the CFD (and when it formed on Fuzz, he was pretty reluctant to go that way at first).

Based on that, I have problems seeing her as bad, just like based on that I had problems seeing ika as bad. But almost everything she has done since then sets offmy alarms, and I think I do pretty well at Mafia because I pay attention to my alarms. So maybe paranoia on my part. I still lean civ on her in a GTH scenario, but I waffle.

The fact that she & sig virtually simultaneously brought up the seemer issue concerned me.

When I am bad, when me & my team are talking about who we are going to kill, pretty much anyone who has given one of us the pass is off the table. And I have Silver the pass hard & often in the days following the Fuzzwagon. I can't hlp but wonder if that has anything to do with my still being alive.

While I tend to agree with this list, I feel more comfortable lunching boom or Quin before TH. I'm noting your desire to cut the head off the horse in TH for his knack for persuasion, but I am not wholly convinced he is as confirmed bad in my mind as Quin and boom. Baby steps, is my recommendation.

[Quin]

Prisoner aside, unless you have BTSC together then the person you trust the most could be manipulating you. If you don't scum read me, what makes you trust me less than the others? Because they lynched more people? Are you still suspicious of me? To answer both points, lynching ika would help you answer those questions.

Do you think I am manipulating indiglo?
Assuming I'm one of her safe and trusted good guys.[/quote]

No, I have a healthy town read for you right now. I just don't like to see someone express their willingness to lynch someone they don't scumread just because the people they trust do. Especially if it's me

linki: I had to chop half of that out because I can't quote more than 7 existing quotes or something. Aw.

[Prisoner 509378]

I agree with Scotty on this point. I don't think a player being "dangerous" or perceived as such should make them a more immediate lynch priority. The top suspect should be lynched regardless of who that is, because it absolutely must be a cop.

[Quin]

It was only a matter of time before someone brought up ika being the seemer. I wish I could agree, but I think you're wrong. He hinted him being the stool pigeon a while ago, so unless hes really playing us, I think he was civ.

I definitely think the possibility exists that ika is the seemer. I was shocked that he appeared as town, so I want to see that as a valid conclusion. If he is actually town, he played an unnecessarily scummy town game. if he is the seemer, he's done an extremely good job until the very end because I'm torn between the two possibilities. I'm going to sit on it for a little while.

Can someone tell me where in these two posts I said ika is the seemer? SVS is being cocky again, twisting my words and she needs to sit down.

[Quin]

Now, with that out of the way, I'll be doing an chaindeath ISO. I would like to contribute.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, I'd really like to know your take on the discussion I just had with Turnip. I ask you specifically because I think you'd be the least proned to bias on that read.

I'd need to look back at his casing of LC in full, but my immeidate reaction is that Turnip doesn't seem entirely convincing or comfortable answering your questions. His dismissal of your main point about his vote for ika yesterday is alarming. I don't think it's a difficult notion to grasp but he kind of dances around it a bit and never really gives a satisfactory response. For now it's making me feel worse about him, but I have a bit of digging to do before I can answer completely.

I've done this. Most of Turnip's replies were not inconsistent with what I see in his Day 3 behavior, but I also do not feel like the LC vote in general was a great look for him. He went from wanting "to give the anti-CFDers get their proper day in court", to giving 2 of the 3 of them strong town reads and focusing instead on Scotty and then Long Con, the latter for his own "ambivalence" toward sig and Quin. I see no ambivalence in Long Con's posts. I see him saying the following things, though:

As I've said more than once, I pretty much agree with the cases that have been made against [sig & quin]. I have seen the rebuttals, and I have seen some people that are convinced by their defenses, and I can understand why. I don't know if they're bad, but I do think that there are plenty of reasons to have them as top lynch candidates."

I already said I agree with Golden and others who believe that the Fuzz CFD is likely all Civ (at least the five or so earliest voters), and that we're more likely to find baddies on the ika train. I would be fine with a sig or Quin lynch, I just happen to find Nero suspicious and no one else had really looked at him at all.

So I'm not entirely sure I buy Turnip Head's Night 6 explanation of his Day 3 case against LC. LC's posts don't support the claims that TH is making, unless I'm missing something.

[Prisoner 509378]

I am looking closely at the current alignment ratio (if that wasn't already obvious ). I thought it would be a good idea to draw out a projection for the game to come to determine exactly how many lynches we might have to work with, because that would be hugely beneficial towards the effort of narrowing our pools to a small enough number of people that the baddies simply cannot escape no matter how many there are (assuming the town squad is not infiltrated by a masterbaddie). The above chart reflects that effort.

It's likely unclear. The numbers provided display, by my math/estimation, how many mislynches town can afford to have from this point on without losing the game. I accounted for numerous variables, to include how many people die tonight (the far left margin shows those possibilities), and how many people will die in each ensuing night.

Note: this is just a baseline, and some variables cannot be accounted for without increasing the workload tremendously. The chart math is based on the same number of people dying/being arrested every night (always 0, always 1, or always 2). This is obviously unlikely. With that in mind, it'd have to serve as a starting point upon which later adjustments can be made if necessary when night kills have dropped.

The "maximum" column is there for completism, it's extremely unlikely that will be reflected in this game. The "minimum" column is worst-case scenario. The "projected" column is the most likely on average. You can see that under most possible circumstances, the number of remaining mislynches before town loses this game is *3*. It's possible that can change.

With this in mind, I think we need to try to create a pool of EIGHT suspects that enough of us agree on that we can work through it without as much risk of stubbornness/lone-wolf combat that will destroy the game. I specifically say EIGHT suspects, because that number accounts for FIVE BADDIES, AND THREE MISLYNCHES (based on the common projection of 3 in the chart).

This might be extremely confusing, I don't know. Ask me about it if so. Also the image might be broken which would be super annoying, so lemme know if that's the case.

[Sloonei]

It was only a matter of time before someone brought up ika being the seemer. I wish I could agree, but I think you're wrong. He hinted him being the stool pigeon a while ago, so unless hes really playing us, I think he was civ.

I definitely think the possibility exists that ika is the seemer. I was shocked that he appeared as town, so I want to see that as a valid conclusion. If he is actually town, he played an unnecessarily scummy town game. if he is the seemer, he's done an extremely good job until the very end because I'm torn between the two possibilities. I'm going to sit on it for a little while.

Can someone tell me where in these two posts I said ika is the seemer? SVS is being cocky again, twisting my words and she needs to sit down.

The second one implies that you are leaving the door open to the possibility, but that's not a bad thing. What is your GTH read on this? Was ika the seemer or not?

[Quin]

It was only a matter of time before someone brought up ika being the seemer. I wish I could agree, but I think you're wrong. He hinted him being the stool pigeon a while ago, so unless hes really playing us, I think he was civ.

I definitely think the possibility exists that ika is the seemer. I was shocked that he appeared as town, so I want to see that as a valid conclusion. If he is actually town, he played an unnecessarily scummy town game. if he is the seemer, he's done an extremely good job until the very end because I'm torn between the two possibilities. I'm going to sit on it for a little while.

Can someone tell me where in these two posts I said ika is the seemer? SVS is being cocky again, twisting my words and she needs to sit down.

The second one implies that you are leaving the door open to the possibility, but that's not a bad thing. What is your GTH read on this? Was ika the seemer or not?

No, he wasn't.

[Prisoner 509378]

Now, with that out of the way, I'll be doing an chaindeath ISO. I would like to contribute.

Absolutely, bring the heat man. I don't want people to feel alienated because of COOL TOWN CLUB, because I know there are other townies out there. Come to me, my children. Allow me to nurse you back to health.

[sig]

Now, with that out of the way, I'll be doing an chaindeath ISO. I would like to contribute.

Absolutely, bring the heat man. I don't want people to feel alienated because of COOL TOWN CLUB, because I know there are other townies out there. Come to me, my children. Allow me to nurse you back to health.

kinky.

[S~V~S]

SVS is always cocky.

[indiglo]

Prisoner, the pic isn't working.

I think I follow you even without seeing the pic though, and I am happy to assist in the pool of 8 with the understanding I currently have of what you're saying. This will mean though, that some will likely be in the pool that I see as unlikely to be scum, but they aren't super town reads to me. Does that make sense? It would be ideal if we could get the pool made before EoN, when I fear someone(s) will be leaving us.

I will make a list, not sure if it will be 8, but I will be open to agreeing with others' lists and options (even if I see them as unlikely to be scum). I hope that makes sense. If not, I am happy to elaborate.

[Quin]

others observe and report.

Pretty please, if you will.

I mean, from an 'inside' perspective, it seemed to be a solid case. I look back on it now and think that 'Was avoiding scrutiny for it really a bad thing? What would he have gained by putting himself in the firing line because of his vote?' I regret lynching him for the reasons that were. If you look at the situation from an 'outside' perspective, I wonder if Turnip should have had those thoughts too.

As you can see, I'm still catching up but I most definitely will do as promised. Because I care.

[Prisoner 509378]

Prisoner, the pic isn't working.

I'll see if I can make it work.

I think I follow you even without seeing the pic though, and I am happy to assist in the pool of 8 with the understanding I currently have of what you're saying. This will mean though, that some will likely be in the pool that I see as unlikely to be scum, but they aren't super town reads to me. Does that make sense? It would be ideal if we could get the pool made before EoN, when I fear someone(s) will be leaving us.

I will make a list, not sure if it will be 8, but I will be open to agreeing with others' lists and options (even if I see them as unlikely to be scum). I hope that makes sense. If not, I am happy to elaborate.

That's exactly what I mean yes. I don't think I could name 8 people that I want to lynch, but I could find that many that I wouldn't refuse to lynch.

[Prisoner 509378]

Trying this again, EBWOP. Sorry to repost the whole thing, but I want the context all nestled into a logical place.



I am looking closely at the current alignment ratio (if that wasn't already obvious ). I thought it would be a good idea to draw out a projection for the game to come to determine exactly how many lynches we might have to work with, because that would be hugely beneficial towards the effort of narrowing our pools to a small enough number of people that the baddies simply cannot escape no matter how many there are (assuming the town squad is not infiltrated by a masterbaddie). The above chart reflects that effort.

It's likely unclear. The numbers provided display, by my math/estimation, how many mislynches town can afford to have from this point on without losing the game. I accounted for numerous variables, to include how many people die tonight (the far left margin shows those possibilities), and how many people will die in each ensuing night.

Note: this is just a baseline, and some variables cannot be accounted for without increasing the workload tremendously. The chart math is based on the same number of people dying/being arrested every night (always 0, always 1, or always 2). This is obviously unlikely. With that in mind, it'd have to serve as a starting point upon which later adjustments can be made if necessary when night kills have dropped.

The "maximum" column is there for completism, it's extremely unlikely that will be reflected in this game. The "minimum" column is worst-case scenario. The "projected" column is the most likely on average. You can see that under most possible circumstances, the number of remaining mislynches before town loses this game is *3*. It's possible that can change.

With this in mind, I think we need to try to create a pool of EIGHT suspects that enough of us agree on that we can work through it without as much risk of stubbornness/lone-wolf combat that will destroy the game. I specifically say EIGHT suspects, because that number accounts for FIVE BADDIES, AND THREE MISLYNCHES (based on the common projection of 3 in the chart).

This might be extremely confusing, I don't know. Ask me about it if so. Also the image might be broken which would be super annoying, so lemme know if that's the case.[/quote]

[S~V~S]

Boomslang
chaindeath
Draconus
Nerolunar
Quin
Serge
sig
Soneji
Turnip Head

This is my initial Do Not Trust List. In alphabetical order.

I left Silver off,although I cannot say I trust her; I also can say I see why she looks more civ than not everywhere but my gut.

It is 9 people. I don;t have much of a read on Nero,Soneji or Draco. If anything my experience with Draco tells me he has no BTSC. So he is the person I am most willing to leave off.

[Sloonei]

A couple small hitches in the projections: We could still have a prisoner or two returned to the game. We apparently aren't assuming they're civies, but they could still provide additional numbers.
Also, it's possible that a cop could get nightkilled.

[indiglo]

Offerings for the pool

TH
Quin
sig
Boomrique

From there it gets trickier for me, but I'll offer a few that I wouldn't be totally opposed to scrutinizing more~

Serge
Chain
Nero
SW


These are just my first, knee-jerk, gut reactions. I would be open to seeing others' lists, and to discussing any further names.




Linki~ Will post, then read, but I now do see the image, Prisoner!

[Prisoner 509378]

A couple small hitches in the projections: We could still have a prisoner or two returned to the game. We apparently aren't assuming they're civies, but they could still provide additional numbers.
Also, it's possible that a cop could get nightkilled.

Good call on the prisoners. I don't know what to expect on that front, but it's something that could have an influence later. A cop being night killed would be lovely, let's do that.

[Quin]

@ Sloon - that TH, Quin & Sig are likely cops.

Why?

Looking at the number of players on the roster, and taking into consideration that each day period has had multiple lynch candidates (and generally close in numbers), it is beyond coincidental to me that they voted the same so many times on winning lynches (who have mostly been civs). If they were really playing, making their own conclusions, forming their own suspicions, I don't see anyway they would always vote the same repeatedly on winning lynches.

Look at our Civ Core. Have we agreed unanimously so many times? No. Because we are thinking separately, coming up with suspicions, trying to figure things out on our own. We have discussed over and over in the thread, and still have trouble forming a consensus. (Day 6 was the first time, iirc, that our core all voted together.)

So I just see no way how several people (who have not even been involved in all that thread discussion on candidates that we have been) would separately come to the same conclusion every single day, and have almost all of them be mislynches. If you can explain that to me, please do so. But I am at the point where I feel pretty good about my short list, and I don't want to WIFOM it, etc. This makes perfect sense to me, it seems so clear, and I am ready to move forward on it.

I hope this makes sense. I fear I'm rambling, or leaving out key words because I am suddenly very fired up about this whole thing, and the fact that someone else I trust came to the same conclusion finally, and we are on the same page makes me feel super, super good and just ready to go.

I think it's unfair to suggest that sig and I are teammates when he's on every single bandwagon while I'm only there three times. On top of that, two of those times are for ika, and anybody who tries to dispute that I've not advocated ika's lynch since the game began is honestly kidding themselves. Turnip is admittedly more difficult to argue, but we weren't on the same bandwagon every time, and the times we were is one each of us were leading our respective bandwagons.

[indiglo]

A couple small hitches in the projections: We could still have a prisoner or two returned to the game. We apparently aren't assuming they're civies, but they could still provide additional numbers.
Also, it's possible that a cop could get nightkilled.

Good call on the prisoners. I don't know what to expect on that front, but it's something that could have an influence later. A cop being night killed would be lovely, let's do that.

I know, right?

I also wonder what would happen if we nabbed the Warden. That could possibly have consequences that work in our favor.

Overall, I do generally prefer to plan for Worst Case Scenarios though, it seems safest. (I'm a pragmatist, can't help it.)

[Quin]

I'm caught up, so I'll do my thing.

[Prisoner 509378]

I'm trying to come up with my 8 names. I have arrived at 7 that I feel comfortable with:

Boomslang
chaindeath
Draconus
Serge
sig
soneji
Turnip Head

#8 is between Quin and Nerolunar. I'm going to let this night phase fully develop before I choose.

Hurry and provide whatever you've got Quin. Time may be running out for someone or sometwo around here.

[Silverwolf]

Silverwolf, what do you think of Turnip Head?

I've been thinking town but it's not a strong townread so I'm gonna re-ISO and take a look.

[Prisoner 509378]

If there's another prison breakout and I'm not around, you're safe with 920077.

[Silverwolf]

I know and if I think you guys have scum, I will be with you all the way. If I think you are wrong, I will go my own way but explain in great detail why I am doing so in hopes of getting you guys to vote scum.

I think, at least off-hand, that you've been pretty on-board with most of the names being fielded as top suspects now (particularly those with less content). I mean players like Boomslang and chaindeath.

The points of contention will likely come at sig and Quin.

Draconus remains underdiscussed so that's someone I'd be willing to talk about. I think a lot of people have left him alone because they weren't alarmed by his predecessor Mongoose, but that's a weak defense to stand on this late in the game and I'm not inspired.

If I have any tinfoil remaining, it'd be Epignosis.

Agree with all of this.

[Quin]

I'm trying to come up with my 8 names. I have arrived at 7 that I feel comfortable with:

Boomslang
chaindeath
Draconus
Serge
sig
soneji
Turnip Head

#8 is between Quin and Nerolunar. I'm going to let this night phase fully develop before I choose.

Hurry and provide whatever you've got Quin. Time may be running out for someone or sometwo around here.

ill just post things as they come to me then. ok.

[Quin]

that was not a snide remark im actually going to do that

[Prisoner 509378]

Everyone who knows him best: is there any reason you think we should be concerned about llama? I've been comfortable with him because of his sporadic appearances and tunneling, but I don't want to give him a permanent hall pass based on meta.

linki: sounds good Q

[Sloonei]

A fully up to date rainbow list:

Prisoner 509378 - While I don't know what his official role in this game is or what win condition(s) he might have, I trust that his approach in this game is entirely town-oriented, and there's no reason to want to lynch him at this time. If he was brought back with the goal of helping scum then I'll be very confused about this setup.

SVS - The trust built on Day 2 has not gone away. I bumped her down to green because I've calmed down a bit and things aren't as extreme as they were. I've not seen a good reason to distrust SVS this game.
indigo - Consistently involved and contributing, apparent solid effort and well-explained votes.

Scotty - see my recent ISO
Silverwolf - I believe her effort so far and her thought process has, for the most part, been consistent, even amidst all that Ika business.
Soneji - Not as many posts as lots of others, but everything he's said has seemed consistent and genuine. I like the effort he puts forth in those few posts of his.
thellama73 - His tight schedule is documented and understandable, and I'm not alarmed by any of his content.

Nerolunar - Not quite at a level where I could call him a town read, but I don't immediately suspect him and he's made a good amount of posts. I probably owe him an ISO.
Epignosis - Still can't make up my mind on him, but he's not an immediate suspect either. I should ISO him as well. I should ISO all the yellows.
Black Rock - Not much content, but I don't think she looks very bad in anything.

Draconus - Mongoose didn't do much when she was here, and neither has Draconus since replacing her. I don't find either of them scummy, but at this point the total lack of activity is too much to not make me nervous.
sig - I GTH'd him as town but the truth is I still can't make a decision. I'd rather be paranoid than assume he's good, so I'll list him as a slight scum read now.
Serge - He's provided some content, but a lot of his posts are safe and not totally memorable. Process of elimination has him down here more than anything he's said.

Quin - He has a lot of points against him and has made a lot of posts that I find highly suspicious. But he's also said and done some things that I think look good. I've laid out my case on Quin many times over the course of a few days and I don't intend to stop casing him until one or both of us are out of this game.
Turnip Head - See these posts for recent developments, though my suspicion is not limited just to these points.
chaindeath - ISO

Boomslang - Reasons stated many times.

[Quin]

Chaindeath walks into the forum after listing from afar, half torn between his loved ones and his need to participate. He is not entirely sure who is a good candidate to vote for, however he is sure that the voting for everyone strategy is not a good way to go. Based on his gut feeling, he respectfully votes for Long Con as the one who feels off. No hate, no animosity, just business babe

chaindeath votes for LC because he 'feels off'. I think, while frustrating, it's understandable on day 1. he also justified why he did not agree with the voting for everyone strategy which is good to see.

Chaindeath has finished reading all of the posts to this point, in the stead of lunch might he add. He would like to acknowledge that he is flattered that thellama would not vote to lynch chaindeath. However, He wishes to let his suspicions be known of Matt and Silverwolf. Matt is acting oddly, and chaindeath is not put at ease with any of Matt's posts. Silverwolf seems fishy as well (odd since shes a wolf and all) he is not comfortable with the snap votes as soon as the polls opened.

Also Chaindeath would like to start a discussion about the hosts night powers. Perhaps the flower of the cosmos was able to redirect the night arrest away from the intended target, especially since in the day before she lost quite a bit from her family. He proposes that she is trying to keep her family at a size that would allow for a fighting chance. In the same mannor,he took the cup, that He thinks that the foot-covering used his power to radically harm the her family. He requests your thoughts.

this is day 2. he expresses scumreads for matt 1.0 and silverwolf again because they are odd and fishy. At this point, we should be seeing actual posts and evaluations to back things up. he says he's not comfortable with snap votes. with changable votes, that is to be expected. it infers he would rather save his vote until either there was more concrete discussion and make a logical decision, or there was a bandwagon he could jump on for the sake of it. he votes luffy without making any justification at all.

[Prisoner 509378]

Keep 'em coming Quin. You've got my attention.

[Tangrowth]

Night 6

Silverwolf walked along the sidewalk, lost in her own thoughts. Things turned upside down since ika had gone to prison. She had been so sure, but in the end he was proven to be a family member. And now no one would listen to her. Things just seemed so murky. She just felt lost. Unfortunately she was unaware of being tailed. And as she rounded a poorly lit corner, the man following her grabbed her elbow and whirled her around. "Time to go downtown," said the policeman with a twisted smile.



Silverwolf has been arrested by the Police. She was ?????.

It is now Day 7.

You have 48 hours to find a policeman. Good luck, goons!

[Prisoner 509378]

Epignosis

[Sloonei]

Voted for chaindeath and then immediately changed to Boomslang. I want to hear from both of them. I will support a lynch of either of them today, barring something unexpected.