Season 10 Champs Practice Game [END - MAFIA WIN]

[Porscha]

[VOTE: Sabiplz ] aubergine

I'm keeping my word. I fucked up.

Sure why not

Vote Sabi

We very likely have a red check coming in so why bother until thay info happens

[WindwardAway]

@WindwardAway who did you red check

Oh my god I blocked a kill lmao.

I don't think there's any use in withholding my info since all the wolves know who i blocked and they're all going to distance themselves now.

Get rekt.

[VOTE: Lily] aubergine

[WindwardAway]

Well cool. Good job either WWA or secret other PR.

Anyways, I strongly believe Nanook should receive more scrutiny today than he has been getting.

Other town PR is odd-night, so I blocked the kill.

I guess wolves didn't use their one-shot tonight, which I thought they'd do to secure a kill on me (either roleblock or jail me).

[WindwardAway]

Also why did Nook at sod ask if there was a red check and not who did wwa save?

There's no fucking way I saved someone unless wolves are playing 5D chess with me. I don't see why I wouldn't have been the kill target cause they already know I'm a PR.

[WindwardAway]

And here I was thinking wow I'll have a lot of posts to catch up on. #blessed

There's almost certainly a red check today dude

And if/when info is outed into the thread, that will likely dictate how the day goes. Until then, I believe that the right thing to do is draw attention to you.

this

imo the sooner the better so that we can start reading ISOs/doing VCA, but I also understand that outing this info might get the PR killed?

I might also ask marmot about this privately but does roleblocking prevent the factional kill? If yes, then maybe we're in 6lock and town roleblocker stopped the nk? Otherwise WWA did and we're just waiting on her to know who to push over today. And if WWA did then we still don't know which setup we're in. Although I don't think that's a big deal any more.

Er
I'm pretty sure we're in the protect setup because of the Rondo kill which must've been a doc dodge, cause there's very little chance mafia tries to kill a roleblocker before a jailkeeper. I'm 99% sure Lily is a wolf.

[WindwardAway]

I mean, if there's a town roleblocker then honestly they should be clear about it because if there's a doc cc then we catch another wolf in the process.

But im feeling extremely confident I blocked the kill because of the reasoning behind my jail target.

1. Suspicion started to grow on Lily toward the end of yesterday. There's no way she would've been a kill target over me, unless she is exactly the other town PR, and imo she hasn't been playing like a town PR at all.
2. I knew Falcon wasn't gonna kill anyone. If scum, he was under too much scrutiny and was at the bottom of my legacy readlist after tutuu. It would've been fairly pointless to jail him.
3. I had lily as mid-town-tier in my legacy readlist. Actually, I think she was the one who asked me to post it before the day ended. It's a perfect spot for a wolf to lurk when they kill me and then can use it to evade suspicion for a while by echoing my readlist. Since tutuu flipped town, I figured one of my townreads had to be wrong, and the one I felt was most likely to be flying under my radar was Lily.

[WindwardAway]

I couldve let the discussion go on for longer before outing my info, but as I said, wolves already know my jail target since they failed to kill. They also know I'm a jailkeeper, so hiding information only hides it from town.

Also, I'm moving Nook slightly up in my readlist again. I'd like for us to spend the day talking and not turboing Lily, so there's no need for a flurry of votes on her right now, but we might as well start discussing her potential partners.

[WindwardAway]

I might as well make some commentary on the day start already

There's almost certainly a red check today dude

And if/when info is outed into the thread, that will likely dictate how the day goes. Until then, I believe that the right thing to do is draw attention to you.

This is a towny post, regardless of whether he's right on Nook
Don't tinfoil Seanzie

There's almost certainly a red check today dude

Pourquoi?

No kill last night, nk is mandatory, any relatively competent scum team kills the JK claim, thus unless wwa was huge brain 5d chess fake claiming and the real jk protected her, she has a red check

Oh, well that does make some sense

This back-and-forth feels off. It looks fairly NAI from Nook's end, and questioning the logic looks kind of like falcon wasn't paying attention, so maybe it works in his favor, but I can't shake the feeling that something is wrong here and that it could be theatre. Feom Falcon's end specifically that last reply feels stilted like he just said it for the sake of saying it, as if it isn't a real interaction. And that in turn makes Nook's posts look worse. Which is rich, coming from me, since I literally just said that i had moved Nook up a bit in my readlist. But he's like at the tier where I had Lily yesterday or one below, and you see how that went. That's not a clear tier lmao.

[VOTE: Sabiplz ] aubergine

I'm keeping my word. I fucked up.

Imo this is NAI cause Sabi is just following up on their word from yesterday. Yes, they could be using it to distract from the wolf I so obviously blocked, or they could be town starting off with following through on self-voting because they said they would. I don't really care because we aren't voting out Sabi today anyway. I'm much more interested on where they suggest we go after we flip Lily.

Also why did Nook at sod ask if there was a red check and not who did wwa save?

I kind of assumed the jailor blocked the nk and didnt save the nk-ee but that's possible ig?

Just for clarification, I can't self-target, so in 99% of worlds where I am the night kill target, I have to block the wolf who's performing the kill. I can't save myself. And because of the Rondo flip I really don't think mafia is hunting for the doctor on an even night when they can just do it on an odd night and I can't do anything about it.

If four of you decided to kill someone that wasn't the claimed jk I will literally eat a whole sandwich

Like it's not impossible but I just can't see any team of four that makes that misplay lol

This was the post I actually thought was towny from Nook today lol
Just the indignation in his tone feels real

[VOTE: Sabiplz ] aubergine

I'm keeping my word. I fucked up.

Sure why not

Vote Sabi

We very likely have a red check coming in so why bother until thay info happens

I'm not exactly a fan of promoting holding your breath until the PR outs a red, but on the other hand Porscha only called out Neon for voting Sabi; she didn't call out the two on Nook. Those two at least were clearly pressing Nook while being aware there was a likely redcheck. Neon said nothing about the redcheck and just went straight for Sabi, and I'm undecided how I feel about that. Without a redcheck, I would've said it was a wolfy thing, but in this case I actually think Neon wouldn't have done it as a wolf because of the fact that it's the lamest excuse in the world to vote Sabi right now.

[WindwardAway]

Actually nvm i don't think the Nook/Falcon thing is theatre anymore

Something did seem off but then it's probably just 1 wolf

Cause if Falcon is a wolf then I'd look at people pushing Nook, and if Nook is a wolf it's probably not the people pushing him at the start of day? Cause wolves know who my redcheck was on and it would be kind of stupid to draw attention to another wolf before the redcheck is outed. Unless that's a valid strategy. Idk, I guess it can be WIFOMed...

What I'm saying is, since Lily is a wolf, there's only room for 2 more wolves, is my point. And if Falcon and Nook are w/w off that interaction, then that would literally be the whole team, which I think sounds too absurd to be that plausible.

[WindwardAway]

I don't know whether both wolves would be active at the start of the day or not, cause if they've checked in here then they definitely know their kill failed. As I said before, if they're aware then they're in antispew from Lily already.

I suggest looking back at yesterday to see where the initial Lily scumread started and who pushed back on it (like I know I went "nah I don't think Lily is scum, I'm comfortable keeping her as town", and you see how that went). There's info to be gleaned there for sure. I'd check it myself but I hosted a party yesterday and now I have to clean up the mess lmao.

[WindwardAway]

Oh also we had the daylight savings time change last night, so now EoD is at 4 am for me and there's absolutely no way I want to be awake for that, even if I managed last day phase. So I'll make sure to leave my legacy (again) before hammer/EoD, even though I have a feeling I'm not gonna die tonight because lol setup.

[WindwardAway]

Still trying to decide what I think of Seanzie, Dennis and Wilgy ganging up on Nook immediately

[WindwardAway]

Still trying to decide what I think of Seanzie, Dennis and Wilgy ganging up on Nook immediately

EBWOP

That should've said pyxxy, not Wilgy. Wilgy is on Falcon.

[WindwardAway]

I doubt mafia used their 1-shot already, btw, cause it doesn't make sense to use it on D1 when they only know one PR who can't act on odd nights.

Im guessing they holstered it and still have it, hoping to either smoke out the doctor tonight, or use it to guarantee a kill on N4. They likely never expected me to jail Lily.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If four of you decided to kill someone that wasn't the claimed jk I will literally eat a whole sandwich

Like it's not impossible but I just can't see any team of four that makes that misplay lol

Do you mean three

Yes. Yes I do lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@WindwardAway who did you red check

Oh my god I blocked a kill lmao.

I don't think there's any use in withholding my info since all the wolves know who i blocked and they're all going to distance themselves now.

Get rekt.

[VOTE: Lily] aubergine

Based

[VOTE: lily] aubergine

[WindwardAway]

@WindwardAway hey can you leave a legacy? Maybe you already have but it would be helpful

I don't think my read list changed from earlier today when I gave it in response to uhhh... Someone. Idk. Seanzie maybe? Porscha iirc had a similar one? And Sabi as well?

It will change depending on tutuu's or falcon's flip kinda sorta

I think they can both be scum but don't necessarily have to be, and I think falcon is very slightly townier than tutuu cause of a single post.

Towncore is Seanzie/Porscha confidently
I think Dennis and Neon are also town just under that
Wilgy and Lily next
Sabi
Nook who is kinda trending downward cause he did like one big towny thing reacting to my pr claim and has ceased to do anything I find AI since then
Pyxxy under that
Then falcon
Then tutuu

Who did i forget this time

OK so I have a theory.

This was my legacy readlist ^ and Lily was 3rd tier.

I think it means both remaining wolves are below her in my readlist and that's why she went for the kill. Meaning that the full scope of PoE is:

Sabi
Nook
Pyxxy
Falcon

[WindwardAway]

Er

Wilgy is on the same tier as Lily and I talked more about reasons for townreading Lily than Wilgy, so he should also be in the PoE.

Wilgy
Sabi
Nook
Pyxxy
Falcon

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Red check js outed that means it's time for

[WindwardAway]

I am gonna make a guess that the team isn't Lily/Wilgy/Falcon because if wolves know that Lily got caught, the remaining two probably aren't going to draw attention to themselves at the start of the day just in case I had chosen to sit on my info without outing it until EoD.

[WindwardAway]

So I'm thinking something like:

Lily for sure
One of Wilgy/Falcon
One of pyxxy/Nook/Sabi

Rough idea of where I'm at, and I still think it's probably not Nook, less sure on Sabi than I was yesterday but I'll give them breathing space since they aren't a priority today.

[Seanzie]

[VOTE: nanook] aubergine

Why Nanook?

Why NOT Nanook?





Or do you feel D-Roc is just sheepin' w/ scum motivation?

I don't necessarily think that, but would rather cover my bases.

[WindwardAway]

@WindwardAway hey can you leave a legacy? Maybe you already have but it would be helpful

I don't think my read list changed from earlier today when I gave it in response to uhhh... Someone. Idk. Seanzie maybe? Porscha iirc had a similar one? And Sabi as well?

It will change depending on tutuu's or falcon's flip kinda sorta

I think they can both be scum but don't necessarily have to be, and I think falcon is very slightly townier than tutuu cause of a single post.

Towncore is Seanzie/Porscha confidently
I think Dennis and Neon are also town just under that
Wilgy and Lily next
Sabi
Nook who is kinda trending downward cause he did like one big towny thing reacting to my pr claim and has ceased to do anything I find AI since then
Pyxxy under that
Then falcon
Then tutuu

Who did i forget this time

OK so I have a theory.

This was my legacy readlist ^ and Lily was 3rd tier.

I think it means both remaining wolves are below her in my readlist and that's why she went for the kill. Meaning that the full scope of PoE is:

Sabi
Nook
Pyxxy
Falcon

I think it should be fairly obvious that I was never going to aim to protect a target but roleblock a wolf — which why I feel I'm justified in thinking the remaining wolves are at or below Lily tier in my legacy readlist.

I would always be the optimal kill target last night unless wolves actually thought they could pull a crazy gambit to try to yeet me, but it ain't happening and I'm fairly sure they know that. They'd have to go into a 1v1 with me and they'd be guaranteed to die even if I flipped first. Not worth it for them because I'm already consensus town.

If one of Seanzie/Porscha was scum, I guarantee you they would've killed me last night because I was never, ever jailing them. Dennis and Neon were just under that, and tbh I did not have doubts on Dennis despite what tutuu said, but I did have some growing doubts on Neon, and I can feasibly see her being sent to kill. But she didn't, and she was higher in my readlist than Lily.

If mafia assumed that there would be very little movement in my reads after tutuu's flip, they would make the assumption that I would logically jail Falcon or pyxxy as first choice, and Nook or Sabi if I was feeling spicy. I guess this kinda depends on how bigbrain the scumteam is, and I think the playerlist in this game is actually pretty amazing, so I could still be wrong. But since I managed to bigbrain them last night, I have a feeling I'm going down the right path.

[WindwardAway]

So let me try something.

@pyxxy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@DrWilgy
@Sabiplz

Between the five of you, which other two do you think are most likely to be paired with Lily? Give reasons if you have them readily available. The three of you who are town among you are in the best possible position for solving the game right now.

[Seanzie]

[VOTE: Lilypetal] aubergine

We shouldn't hammer yet, but this will be the elim 99.9987969% of the time.

[WindwardAway]

[VOTE: Lilypetal] aubergine

We shouldn't hammer yet, but this will be the elim 99.9987969% of the time.

If she isn't the lunch today I will eat Nanook's sandwich tbh

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So let me try something.

@pyxxy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@DrWilgy
@Sabiplz

Between the five of you, which other two do you think are most likely to be paired with Lily? Give reasons if you have them readily available. The three of you who are town among you are in the best possible position for solving the game right now.

That's a tomorrow nanook problem

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: Lilypetal] aubergine

We shouldn't hammer yet, but this will be the elim 99.9987969% of the time.

If she isn't the lunch today I will eat Nanook's sandwich tbh

Sandwich theft is not a joke, Jim

[WindwardAway]

So let me try something.

@pyxxy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@DrWilgy
@Sabiplz

Between the five of you, which other two do you think are most likely to be paired with Lily? Give reasons if you have them readily available. The three of you who are town among you are in the best possible position for solving the game right now.

That's a tomorrow nanook problem

I don't want the day wasted with an early hammer.
I want as narrow a solve as we can get today, because none of you 5 are dying anytime soon unless a wolf thinks one of you is a doctor.

[Seanzie]

I ISO'd Lily yesterday and just relooked at my ISO to remind myself what I was seeing.

Based on posts I pulled from her ISO, I think Dennis and Wilgy look better in a Wolf!Lily world, where Nook looks worse.

I will probably re-ISO Lily rather than just using my old notes, but this is a good place to start.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So let me try something.

@pyxxy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@DrWilgy
@Sabiplz

Between the five of you, which other two do you think are most likely to be paired with Lily? Give reasons if you have them readily available. The three of you who are town among you are in the best possible position for solving the game right now.

That's a tomorrow nanook problem

I don't want the day wasted with an early hammer.
I want as narrow a solve as we can get today, because none of you 5 are dying anytime soon unless a wolf thinks one of you is a doctor.

I don't really believe it's optimal to try and solve before the nk, tbh. Would rather see who mafia kill without giving them any guide rails.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I ISO'd Lily yesterday and just relooked at my ISO to remind myself what I was seeing.

Based on posts I pulled from her ISO, I think Dennis and Wilgy look better in a Wolf!Lily world, where Nook looks worse.

I will probably re-ISO Lily rather than just using my old notes, but this is a good place to start.

Wow, I am SHOCKED

[Seanzie]

This could be conf-bias though, but I do think Nook needs to be someone of discussion today. Especially if someone strongly townreads Nook, I'd love to hear from you, because if I'm wrong there, I'd like help figuring that out.

[WindwardAway]

I ISO'd Lily yesterday and just relooked at my ISO to remind myself what I was seeing.

Based on posts I pulled from her ISO, I think Dennis and Wilgy look better in a Wolf!Lily world, where Nook looks worse.

I will probably re-ISO Lily rather than just using my old notes, but this is a good place to start.

What do you think of Sabi?
I think their WiM is NAI but they've now pushed Lucy and tutuu but iirc they didn't want to consider scum!Lily, which is not a good look in combination with the two elims so far.

[Seanzie]

I ISO'd Lily yesterday and just relooked at my ISO to remind myself what I was seeing.

Based on posts I pulled from her ISO, I think Dennis and Wilgy look better in a Wolf!Lily world, where Nook looks worse.

I will probably re-ISO Lily rather than just using my old notes, but this is a good place to start.

Wow, I am SHOCKED

Dude, I'm just playing the game. I am trying to bring you into the center of discussion both because I think you're likely a wolf, and because if I'm wrong, I want help figuring that out. Sorry, I know that's shocking, but I'm just trying to play in a good way, and I think what I'm doing is good play.

[WindwardAway]

This could be conf-bias though, but I do think Nook needs to be someone of discussion today. Especially if someone strongly townreads Nook, I'd love to hear from you, because if I'm wrong there, I'd like help figuring that out.

Idk how strongly i townread him but I think after Wilgy he's the one I think is least likely to be a wolf out of my PoE of 5.

[Seanzie]

I ISO'd Lily yesterday and just relooked at my ISO to remind myself what I was seeing.

Based on posts I pulled from her ISO, I think Dennis and Wilgy look better in a Wolf!Lily world, where Nook looks worse.

I will probably re-ISO Lily rather than just using my old notes, but this is a good place to start.

What do you think of Sabi?
I think their WiM is NAI but they've now pushed Lucy and tutuu but iirc they didn't want to consider scum!Lily, which is not a good look in combination with the two elims so far.

That is a good question. I've mostly left Sabi in a null pile because I've never had an accurate read on them. Let me skim their ISO and I'll try to give you a better answer than this, at least a GTH.

[WindwardAway]

Like I don't think sabis reasons for scumreading Lucy or tutuu were bad. Because tutuu had the same reasons as Sabi did for scumreading Lucy. And I had the same reasons as Sabi for scumreading tutuu. It's not the reasoning on the mislunches that's getting me, it's however they've treated Lily and that's what I want to follow up on, because wolf!Lily was likely the closest to being mostly townread of the entire wolf team, if my theory is correct.

Sabi putting focus on themselves at the start of the day is NAI as I said before, because it's just a followup from yesterday. As town, Sabi would feel obligated to self-vote to hold up their end of the promise, and as a wolf, Sabi would already know they wouldn't get yeeted today because Lily was jailed.

[WindwardAway]

I don't disagree with this take, but I do think it's fair to add that if we spend too much energy killing higher momentum players that MAY be civ, we'll end up with a dead thread and an alive falcon.

When I say that it becomes a liability to leave Falcon alive, this is why.

I'm still A-OK with the Tutuu counterwagon, but I also think Pyxxy becoming a wagon is at least slightly concerning? I haven't really read since I went to bed last night, but I still think I'd rather have wagon 3 be Lily>Pyxxy.

Why lily

I don't think we are seeing normal town lost Lily.

I've brought up points that seem to indicate this behavior as well in my ISO but don't have time to reference them now.

I just don't get solvey energy from them.

This post makes me think Wilgy is unlikely to be wolf with Lily
I remembered seeing this yesterday but wanted to double-check just to make sure I remembered correctly
Wolf!Wilgy doesn't need to shine a spotlight on Lily in anticipation of the next day, when town!tutuu is about to flip regardless. Wolves should be in a good position here unless he is trying to move the wagon off of wolf!falcon, but considering that Wilgy kept saying he wanted to keep the wagons as falcon vs. tutuu and vastly preferred flipping falcon, this can't be the case.

[WindwardAway]

If I remove Wilgy from my PoE, that leaves:

Nook
Pyxxy
Sabi
Falcon

Gonna take a break and then skim someone else's iso

[WindwardAway]

If I remove Wilgy from my PoE, that leaves:

Nook
Pyxxy
Sabi
Falcon

Gonna take a break and then skim someone else's iso

This is still hypothetical
Wilgy isn't hard cleared, but very unlikely partnered with Lily

[WindwardAway]

Ok I lied I'm still here
Falcons iso was so short that I went through it and holy fuck is it wolfy
He has an insane amount of focus on Sean and Nook specifically, and a couple dismissive posts throwing Sabi's name around.
Just look at it and tell me that's a normal scope of focus for someone who doesn't seem to be reading the game closely, and also sought to sheep Sean and Nook earlier in the game but decided to shade both of them later.

[WindwardAway]

After lily i think we should punt falcon into the sun

[WindwardAway]

Nook/pyxxy/Sabi remain

I'll read their isos when I check back in later

[WindwardAway]

Oh I had another thought
Remwver that 4-way tie yesterday when votes started moving off tutuu/falcon and onto other wagons?
I gotta check what I said, and I know @pyxxy had something to say about it iirc, but the two wagons that cropped up were pyxxy and Sabi iirc.
If I'm right and falcon is scum, and Wilgy is right that scum was trying to shift off of wolf!falcon, then it might point to Nook (have to see if I noted down where his vote was then, though). If nook's vote was on falcon or tutuu, though, then scrap this idea cause then the shift was more likely town-led.

[DrWilgy]

With preflipped Lily:
D1
9 - lucy/arogame123 => pyxxy, Seanzie, Sabiplz, falcon45ca, WindwardAway, Dennis, Lilypetal, Porscha, DrWilgy
3 - pyxxy => NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, tutuu, Neon
1 - falcon45ca => arogame123
1 - Sabiplz => RondoDimBuckle

My mid d2 grab:
5 - falcon45ca =>
Voters: pyxxy, Seanzie, tutuu, DrWilgy, Dennis
4 - tutuu =>
Voters: WindwardAway, Lilypetal, Sabiplz, Neon

D2
6 - tutuu => Lilypetal, WindwardAway, Dennis, Neon, Sabiplz, falcon45ca
4 - falcon45ca => tutuu, Seanzie, DrWilgy, pyxxy

Makes me think it becomes imperative to resolve counter wagons.

If Falcon is Lily's partner it's entirely possible that they triple stacked on Tutuu making me think it's in Sabi.

If Falcon isn't Lily's partner, then Falcon wouldn't need to be pure and Pyxxy becomes my greatest concern.

Oddly enough, Nook not voting D2 is also worthy of observation if Falcon flips red.

Probably of the teams in:
High: Sabi, Lily, Falcon
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Nook
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Sabi

I think Neon provided some data to indicate that Lily is not their partner.

I think Seanzie did as well.

I still don't see us living in a Porscha or Dennis wolf world as well.

[DrWilgy]

I'd like to find vote totals for when we were at the 4 way split if anyone has that.

[DrWilgy]

High: Sabi, Lily, Falcon
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Nook
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Sabi

Of these team combinations, I also think it just makes sense for option 1 to be the most likely because Lily was carrying the kill.

Falcon and Sabi were very likely >ev RB choices, so a team of Sabi, Falcon sending Lily makes sense to me.

Also if it's Pyxxy, why wouldn't Pyxxy or Nook carry the kill? I think both Seanzie and I had parsed enough of Lily to make the wolves think that sending Lily would be slightly problematic.

[WindwardAway]

I'd like to find vote totals for when we were at the 4 way split if anyone has that.

I thought I took a screenshot but i didn't, I just commented on it so it might be partially written out in my iso. I do know that falcon and tutuu were voting each other at that point; I paid attention because falcon asked me who I thought was a wolf leading away from those two wagons and I know he and tutuu were excluded from that theory. I know I named Pyxxy as a potential wolf because Pyxxy was voting Nook.

[WindwardAway]

High: Sabi, Lily, Falcon
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Nook
Mid: Pyxxy, Lily, Sabi

Of these team combinations, I also think it just makes sense for option 1 to be the most likely because Lily was carrying the kill.

Falcon and Sabi were very likely >ev RB choices, so a team of Sabi, Falcon sending Lily makes sense to me.

Also if it's Pyxxy, why wouldn't Pyxxy or Nook carry the kill? I think both Seanzie and I had parsed enough of Lily to make the wolves think that sending Lily would be slightly problematic.

You don't think there's a world where Falcon is paired with Nook?