[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

[Epignosis]

My PoE is still Quin/Epi/Kate (with Wilgy if I had to add a 4th).

Day 2. I was in Wiml's shit list.

We begin today:

Please don't quickhammer overnight, going to try to put some time aside to deep dive stuff today.

Fwuw Epi I also don't think you're wolfing.

But I need to think over things some more.

I ask this and receive a response:

My PoE is still Quin/Epi/Kate (with Wilgy if I had to add a 4th).

Fwuw Epi I also don't think you're wolfing.

But I need to think over things some more.

What changed?

I think you're pretty villagery and Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you rn. I also think that there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above you in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase.

The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer.

This didn't answer my question, so I asked for clarification. In the meantime:

Quin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Epi / Kate / Wilgy

I suppose that’ll do as a “full” POE pool.

Second in the queue.

What fun to spend Day 3 convincing these dung beetles that I'm not it.

You are bad with Lime Coke. What do you do?

1. Create chaos in thread
2. Have Lime Coke lynch you over clever "slip up"
3. Protect Lime Coke to get through Day 1 whole
4. Try to get JJJ lynched for fun
5. Any or all of the above
6. Squander first time being bad with Lime Coke

These posts (the former in particular) gave me good vibes @Michelle

I gave some good vibes here in these cartoonish posts? Perhaps.

What I'm struggling with is the order of things:

Please don't quickhammer overnight, going to try to put some time aside to deep dive stuff today.

First.

I think you're pretty villagery and Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you rn. I also think that there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above you in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase.

The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer.

The big deal lies in the little words.

"I think you're pretty villagery"

(doesn't answer the question)

"AND Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you [right now]."

(don't know what that thought has to do with me or why you already think that if you need to check people out more thoroughly)

"I ALSO think there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase."

(don't know what that thought has to do with me)

The and and also link those thoughts to the original one, which I didn't ask about. I didn't ask about hammering today. I didn't ask about Kate. I didn't ask about people Wiml might also be considering. My question was a simple one: "What changed?" This was regarding me and me only.

None of this tells me what I did in the span between Day 2 and now to show why I'm "villagery."

Because there isn't an answer. It's to reassure me. I am far from reassured.

"The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer."

How is that? That post is tied to me by the AND and ALSO. The desire for avoiding a quick hammer came first (see the second item I quoted above) but was tied to my own posts that came later. Returning to and spoilering the fun gifs:

Spoiler: show

Quin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Epi / Kate / Wilgy

I suppose that’ll do as a “full” POE pool.

Second in the queue.

What fun to spend Day 3 convincing these dung beetles that I'm not it.

You are bad with Lime Coke. What do you do?

1. Create chaos in thread
2. Have Lime Coke lynch you over clever "slip up"
3. Protect Lime Coke to get through Day 1 whole
4. Try to get JJJ lynched for fun
5. Any or all of the above
6. Squander first time being bad with Lime Coke

These posts (the former in particular) gave me good vibes @Michelle

But it wasn't as much that Epi trended up (since I always had him as reasonably towny and he was just in my PoE because others were townier with better evidence backing them up and he hasn't had that) and more that I'm now putting a less weight onto Kate's one post that I was semi-clearing her on so she's no longer on a similar level of towniness as Epi for me.

These posts gave good vibes? That's an extremely empty thing for Wiml to say about me when I was on the shit list previously. There's no interaction with these posts. There's also the "I always had him as reasonably towny and he was just in my PoE because others were townier with better evidence backing them up and he hasn't had that." That's a lot of words in which you said absolutely nothing about me. Not a thing. Because you don't know what to say about me.

And I got railroaded into Kate again somehow. Isn't that something?

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: wiml] aubergine

[Michelle]

Sure, let's do it

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

From the wording of this post it's like someone else suggested it, but no one asked for hammer at that moment.

I was obviously in the middle of a discussion.
But that discussion could change the thread momentum (explanation for hammer from Wiml earlier today), WIM and etc, so Wiml put Quin at L-1.

Because I was the one who's voice was cut in the middle of an interaction I am frustrated. But that's not the important part, not the fact I couldn’t post makes me wolf read Wiml, it's the meaning of Brad giving up to play with an inactive partner he was pushing so conviced.
I know Brad, I know he grew up as player a lot and I doubt he would let his inactive mate with such a burden. He stayed silent because his mate was town read and he didn't want to ruin his/her town credit.
He hates wolfing? Idk. I never asked him that. But I don't like that kind of meta 'facts' because wolves are often using these to obtain town credit.
Before my wolf game I linked, Brad had a game where he won as the last wolf standing.
It doesn't matter if he likes it or not.
He can do it.

What is important is the next posts from Wiml.
Who is allegedly advising town to keep playing despite a possible town flip from Quin.

It seems for me that Wiml knew that Quin will flip villager, otherwise why the advice if he was convinced the game ends?


Thoughs?

[Michelle]

What games we played @☆Princess Abigail☆?
The Champs game, sure, and how many other games?

A few I'm pretty sure but I don't remember specifics

It's the same for me. That's why I can't say I know how you play.
Would that mean the reverse is true and you don't know how I play?

[Michelle]

I promise I will read Epi's posts in the morning.
Idk why I am awake at 4 am...

[Michelle]

To avoid hammer I keep my vote in spirit but remove it from the poll during my night time

[Epignosis]

Associations of Lime Coke and Wiml

From Lime Coke

Spoiler: show

@Lime Coke do you have an initial impression of Wiml?

Neutral currently since I'm sort of afraid of reading him after failing twice spectating his Champs games.

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

Sir if there is one thing that I am, it is scared.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE, YOUNG MAN!?

I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

Yes I like to use the "I'm scared" thing as a joke in moments and in the tone of me trying to act tough or like I'm about to do something huge.

The shift tends to get people since they don't expect it.

Is there a reason you had an issue with falcon voting Michelle but not me doing the same?

I sa in atm it

Falcon also voted JJJ before Michelle.

You did not.

Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.

[VOTE: Wiml] aubergine

A lot of this is pretty bland tip-toe behavior, which could be interpreted as "Wiml is someone I have to pretend to be paranoid about because of his champs performances" or "Wiml is my teammate, and I must be cautious not to expose him". I am honestly content to ignore all of it.

The last two posts are funny. Hey everyone, look at this WIFOM!

I'll pass.

From Wiml

@Michelle open the spoiler below at you're own risk while on mobile. It's going to be enormous.

Spoiler: show

I know a reasonable number of players here (although the only person I have significant playing everyone with is Lime Coke) and I've seen everyone else minus Quin play at least once since I specced a couple recent games before deciding if to sign up or not.

I know a reasonable number of players here (although the only person I have significant playing everyone with is Lime Coke) and I've seen everyone else minus Quin play at least once since I specced a couple recent games before deciding if to sign up or not.

Anyone you think you're particularly well-suited to read correctly?

I used to have a good read on Lime Coke back when we were both MU regulars. I had his slot as my top wolfread while speccing the game Abigail hosted recently but that's the only time I've seen him play in real time in about a year so I'll probably need to take some time to refresh on him.

Abigail I've seen play in real time a bunch (mostly as town) and I feel like I've got a good shot at reading her as well.

There are a few other players I think will be very readable with meta once I've gone over them more thoroughly but I just don't have any real time experience with watching them play.

@Lime Coke do you have an initial impression of Wiml?

Neutral currently since I'm sort of afraid of reading him after failing twice spectating his Champs games.

There's no need for people to force a read on me rn so it's fine.

Now that it's daytime for me and people have posted I've actually got the chance to play for real.

@Lime Coke why the Falcon vote?

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

Sir if there is one thing that I am, it is scared.

I never make that post as a wolf lol.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

Spoiler: show

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

Sir if there is one thing that I am, it is scared.

I am never scared when I am town and when I am wolf I try to hide it. Why are you scared?

No reason it was just a joke.

Really? It didn't seem like one to me.

I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

I interpreted it the same way so I'm not sure what you're meaning?

I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

I interpreted it the same way so I'm not sure what you're meaning?

If I am correct in that interpretation, Lime Coke can validly call it a "joke", but it still demands clarity about what in that post inspired unease about you.

Brad's wolfy because he identified a completely valid post to scumread me based on (even if I'd argue I'd never made that post as mafia, that's total WIFOM) but is very hesitant to push on it. This was just a mild ping at the time but I wanted to move off of Michelle and he seemed like a reasonable vote for that reason.

And then his "it's just a joke" post I reacted to made the above significantly more apparent by totally backing down on it imo (which is where our interpretations seem to differ) and was the point where I started actively considering him to be wolfy.

Wolf-Brad knows I have a reasonably good read on him and have a high chance of burying him later on unless he pockets me. I also used to OMGUS a bit in the past. So wolf-Brad almost never wants to genuinely try to push on me.

So I find his pointing out a genuinely reasonable reason to scumread me and backing off as "just a joke" to be wolfy from him specifically.

Well that's unfortunate.

If you're town then I have faith we'll get there eventually on you dw.

JJJ probably town this game the dude feels way different from his mafia game solve wise.

Michelle I'm actually leaning town on a tad bit.

Annnnd can toss a townlean on Kate and Abigail.

Please expand on all of these that you haven't already expanded on.

I do have some gripes with Lime Coke.

Spoiler: show

JJJ probably town this game the dude feels way different from his mafia game solve wise.

Michelle I'm actually leaning town on a tad bit.

Annnnd can toss a townlean on Kate and Abigail.

The last time I saw this post (the gist being "JJJ seems really town now, not like last game when he was mafia") it came from mafia WildZoo in one of the SDN games I linked for Wiml.

Spoiler: show

Whom I THINK can be a wolf is...

....

....

THIS GUY!!!

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

falcon was my top town read as of this moment, and to drop this vote without engaging me (or anyone else town reading falcon) in some capacity is a bit off.

Spoiler: show

JJJ probably town this game the dude feels way different from his mafia game solve wise.

Michelle I'm actually leaning town on a tad bit.

Annnnd can toss a townlean on Kate and Abigail.

Talk to me about Abigail pls

Mostly vibes while reading her posts.

Kinda farty

Spoiler: show

Talk to me about Abigail pls

Mostly vibes while reading her posts.

She has good vibes as wolf too.

You're not wrong.

I'll see how the rest of the day plays out for her I'll tone the read down a bit.

Not sure LC cares about his Abigail read. This "tone it down" move came right after I said the same thing, but with barely any qualification or exploration of the topic.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

I broadly agree with this post as well.

Well that's unfortunate.

What do you think of the reasons I gave for town reading falcon?

Farty.

I laughed.

Why do you read me as town if my town read on your suspect is farty?

I actually used that because you used it to describe my post and I though it was funny.

I just looked at it.

I think my thing was seeing him vote you and Michelle, mainly Michelle, and thinking it was bad.

Your townread on him I can maybe see from your POV with how he was reading you specifically.
Though I think the "Voting him until he creates a towncore" kind of just feels like a fake thing to use just to set a bar however high he wants and not give credit.

I'm back and forth on the read itself I'll have to see him a second go around.

Is there a reason you had an issue with falcon voting Michelle but not me doing the same?

I saw somebody say in a prior game that falcon making these sort of aggressive pushes like on Michelle was his town meta (and although that's not something I'm putting a tonne of stock in atm it does line up with what I've seen from Falcon's play in prior games recently).

I interpreted Lime Coke's "scared" as a lighthearted (so, "jokey") way of expressing a genuine sentiment -- unease about Wiml.

Yes I like to use the "I'm scared" thing as a joke in moments and in the tone of me trying to act tough or like I'm about to do something huge.

The shift tends to get people since they don't expect it.

This seems reasonable enough.

What was the intention in quoting that specific post of mine, then?

@Lime Coke

This might be the only time we play together for a while since I'm not yet sure if I'm going to keep playing FM or go back to retirement.

So if you're town you gotta impress me today and show me how much you've improved firsthand since we last played together, right?

Lime Coke, talk to me more about your perceived meta differences between JJJ this game and when you last saw him wolf?

Jay, Neon, & Michelle all prolly town

I think that's there at max 1 wolf in this list of names.

What does your read list look like? Do you have a color arrangement a la Jay?

Not worth doing a rainbow since I'm on mobile and the difference between tiers of my reads is pretty minimal rn.

I'm townleaning you, Michelle and to a lesser extent JJJ pending some ISOs.

Abigail I have as more likely town than not as well.

Most of these players (minus JJJ) I'm somewhat happy to write off as town and just keep an eye on for now. I don't think that there's more than 1 wolf in the top 4 posters due to the threadstate and disassociatives between all of them so I'm pretty happy just sitting back and letting them cook even without a super strong set of clears. You I've had as low priority due to being an easier read once you've posted more.

Lime Coke I lean wolf on.

Everyone else is a shrug from me.

I like the general vibe of Lime Coke's posts and think he sounds fine. I hesitate to pull the town trigger, because the falcon vote is like a direct shot into my green pile. That doesn't make him mafia or even wrong, but it's something I have to reconcile.

What did you like about Lime's posts at this point in time?

@Wiml uh I guess I can detail Epi in that I form reads from vibes and tone. Epi's tone seems different than last game and it bugged me thinking he could be bad but last two times I thought he was bad he was in fact town. The basis of my read.

@DrWilgy I am so sorry to hear this feel better soon <3 hope you have had a vaccine <3

Thanks for answering!

Is there anybody in this lobby that you'd consider yourself to have a good read on?

no it's way too early to be sure (at least for me) how about you?

There's nobody in this playerlist that I'd be shocked if they flipped against my reads rn but there's a few players who I'd be impressed with if they pulled off this strong of an entrance as mafia (falcon and Michelle come to mind).

Over time I'm hoping to be able to read Lime Coke and Abigail well in particular and will probably try to focus on trying to find villagers in the less active / busier players.

I think in particular this game, falcon feels a lot more personally invsted in the game than there.

I think he actually cares about his read on Lime Coke and isn't just sitting back eating popcorn. I feel like he cares about the game broadly as a whole and is actually trying to push the gamestate forward with his posting and the questions he's asking.

My PoE is also Lime Coke / Kate / Quin / Wilgy with Epi on the verge of the but being townier than the rest.

Lime Coke dipping after getting pushed, not caring to solve and only coming back for a lolcat-style post gives me a good idea about his alignment atp.

It feels like we have w/w wagons

Very plausible, although I would at this rate have a strong preference for flipping Lime Coke.

I do have some gripes with Lime Coke.

Spoiler: show

JJJ probably town this game the dude feels way different from his mafia game solve wise.

Michelle I'm actually leaning town on a tad bit.

Annnnd can toss a townlean on Kate and Abigail.

The last time I saw this post (the gist being "JJJ seems really town now, not like last game when he was mafia") it came from mafia WildZoo in one of the SDN games I linked for Wiml.

Spoiler: show

Whom I THINK can be a wolf is...

....

....

THIS GUY!!!

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

falcon was my top town read as of this moment, and to drop this vote without engaging me (or anyone else town reading falcon) in some capacity is a bit off.

Spoiler: show

Talk to me about Abigail pls

Mostly vibes while reading her posts.

Kinda farty

Spoiler: show

She has good vibes as wolf too.

You're not wrong.

I'll see how the rest of the day plays out for her I'll tone the read down a bit.

Not sure LC cares about his Abigail read. This "tone it down" move came right after I said the same thing, but with barely any qualification or exploration of the topic.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

I broadly agree with this post as well.

"Broadly?" Why this qualifier? What does it mean? What do you specifically disagree with in this post?

"Broadly" because JJJ came to similar conclusions as I did but I didn't have the ability to comment on every single point he brought up. I was saying that I agreed with what I could comment on and agreed with the overall conclusion of the post.

To go point-by-point:

1. Can't comment on JJJ's personal experiences but I think the lazy treatment of JJJ's slot demonstrates a lack of paranoia about JJJ's alignment that I absolutely would expect from Brad (something which he displayed elsewhere in his treatment of me for example).

2. Fully in agreement. Lime Coke also went after obvtown!falcon early on after subbing into Cyberpunk and did a similar thing to described here.

3+4. Weak explanation demonstrating a lack of thought behind his reads and further demonstrating a lack of concern about accuracy. Also got the impression that he didn't care about his reads and had to back down because he couldn't justify his (poorly-conceived) reasoning.

I don't think that a potential wolf-Lime Coke just gives up under pressure if one of his initial strong pushers (JJJ) is actually a wolf bussing him.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE, YOUNG MAN!?

Pointing this out as another point where I think town-Lime Coke would have tried to engage with me instead of superficially react but stay way clear of defending himself / trying to read me / trying to actually engage me.

(Lime Coke's post here with the big text is a joke response for people who weren't aware).

I think everyone that hasn't already should share their new impressions of Quin.

I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.

Going through ISOs because it's getting kind of rough to find teams that aren't Lime Coke + Kate/Abigail and even then I'm not all that sold on Abigail.

Currently leaning towards a world where if Lime Coke is a wolf his partner doesn't have a lot of thread control.

Not really confident that we're living in a world where two players with the potential for being very active, capable wolves are sat not doing a whole lot to influence things while both are getting run up and wagoned.

Like, I'll have to review it but I don't think wolf-Abi would really see town-Michelle as a viable counterwagon to w/w wagons and I don't recall her doing a lot outside of that to actually change the direction the game is heading in, if you get me?

Nor does that seem to particularly align with Lime's behaviour.

Ftr I'm open to hearing people's reasons why Lime Coke is town.

I'm struggling to see it atm but I don't like to tunnel onto people too strongly and I'm very open to changing my worldview with new content / evidence.

Ideally points why Lime is town in a vacuum instead of trying to address the case on Lime and say why you think it's wrong. The latter won't really help atm.

Ftr I am not fully sold on a Wilgy/Lime unalignment (based on the logic of the early falcon sheep vote) in large part due to Lime's big loss of WIM.

It doesn't matter at the moment but I'm bringing it up in case Lime flips wolf and I subsequently die so Wilgy doesn't get blindly cleared without at least a review of that logic.

This is honestly very interesting and I think it's due to a lack of history, but I assure you Wiml, I'm the last person to be cleared.

Like almost ever and under any circumstance. I don't think you need to worry so much about that.

Yeah, that was primarily indirect response to JJJ since he said he'd not have you in his extended PoE due to disassociatives if Brad flipped wolf unless I'm misremembering.

If a town loses a mountainous game with a D1 wolf flip, it's more often than not due to misclearing (or at least mis-removing-from-PoE) somebody because of spew (or at least on MU it tends to be, idk meta here well) so I'd feel pretty guilty if I saw a possible case of that happening in real time, ignored it and then it turned out you were Lime's partner.

This is honestly very interesting and I think it's due to a lack of history, but I assure you Wiml, I'm the last person to be cleared.

Like almost ever and under any circumstance. I don't think you need to worry so much about that.

Yeah, that was primarily indirect response to JJJ since he said he'd not have you in his extended PoE due to disassociatives if Brad flipped wolf unless I'm misremembering.

If a town loses a mountainous game with a D1 wolf flip, it's more often than not due to misclearing (or at least mis-removing-from-PoE) somebody because of spew (or at least on MU it tends to be, idk meta here well) so I'd feel pretty guilty if I saw a possible case of that happening in real time, ignored it and then it turned out you were Lime's partner.

If you wish to see Brad and I teamed up, I'd browse cyberpunk.

However, them flipping wolf here I think makes assoc reads almost -ev due to the lack of content. I remember once an argument was made that if a wolf goes over d1 it's bad dudu for the town as it becomes a game of find the sk.

I've read most of Cyberpunk in real time since I was at one point a possible sub for that game but ty.

I don't think otoh that there's a lot of direct interactions here that would be all that meaningful if Lime flipped wolf but I think there are enough players who seem unaligned with Lime (Falcon, JJJ, to a lesser extent probably Abigail and possibly others I'm forgetting) that looking at potential teams is at the very least still useful.

Why are yall voting for 7up?

Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

There's a bunch of cases on him but Lime got moderately pushed for being wolfy and then seems to have lost all motivation and stopped posting in a way that seems kind of outing for him.

He's only posted once since early in the cycle and that was to post a non-game-related meme before dipping.

Lots more context but you'll see it when you catch up.

@Lime Coke if you come back I'm very happy to try working with you.

Just please don't wait until right at EoD to show up if you're town.

I'm very much not expecting Lime to be a villager at this point but I want to make absolutely sure to give him every opportunity to prove me wrong if he's town.

If Lime flips wolf then I'm expecting a comfortable game for us.

My biggest concerns are just some absolute hellworld where Lime gave up and started lolcatting as a villager for some reason??? But I'm really struggling to see him not even weakly try to solve or do something game related on his re-entry if he actually was a villager.

While not a full wolf streak, I know that Lime's had a couple of other wolf games in the last few weeks so he might just be feeling burned out from those as well.

I’ve seen Lime Coke receive suspicion as town on a number of occasions, and this was never the result in the past. He has usually continued playing, either giving faith that folks would come around or developing his own reads.

Thanks. I'm glad this lines up with your experiences with him as well.

Sorry yesterday was busy as hell for me and today relatively the same.

Granted I knew about today, yesterday's wasn't expected.

Anyways....

I'm way far behind so my reads have been messed up.

I see that Wiml at least is giving me a chance so I'll lean town there.

Idk who else I'm completely lost.

Hi Brad, do you have an idea of how much you'll be able to read before EoD?

[VOTE: Wiml] aubergine

What caused the 180?

I... sincerely hope that Lime Coke isn't town.

Will wait for his catch up.

Lime Coke's probably not coming back, is he?

(Appreciate the responses, taking my time going through them).

Wilgy, will you please move back onto a non-vanity wagon before EoD? Just to avoid shenanigans since Lime will probably self pres at some point.

Oh that thing I was going to say closer to EoD.

Was just going to make note of the fact that Lime Coke left some pretty bad spew in Cyberpunk that let me correctly narrow down the last wolf as a spectator to exactly Wilgy without reading the game in great detail.

Spew reads from a D1 flipped wolf are something to be very, very cautious of as misclears there are often the cause of lost games but I think for Lime in particular spending a bit of time looking at how he approached people early on and how others approached him might benefit us. Just take clearing people on spew alone with a pinch of salt (especially later on).

Just stuff I wanted to out this in case we flip Lime and he's wolfing + I die.

A lot of my legacy is just under the assumption that we flip Lime Coke and he flips wolf which is the most likely scenario where I die.

Kate is the most likely wolf, followed by Epi/Quin followed a large gap then Wilgy and Abigail.

Falcon's almost always town. Michelle/JJJ very likely to be town but scrutinise if alive for too long. Roxy probably also just a villager but without quite the same level of confidence.

If we don't flip Lime then my legacy is that he's a wolf.

I definitely didn't need to include all of those, but at a certain point somewhere I decided to be obnoxious. So have the whole thing.

The simple answer is "why even bother, Wiml buried Lime Coke, they're not teammates, the end" -- but we're a thorough town in Cool Bugs Mafia. We turn the stones. Clearly Wiml played a pivotal role in eliminating Lime Coke. This big analysis post isn't necessary for us to know that. So let's consider the minutiae, because if Wiml is mafia, that's the only way he'll be located. Are there better reasons in this mass of information than "Wiml buried Lime Coke" to trust Wiml? I think there are a few. Let's see:

Green - I mentioned in my review of Michelle that Lime Coke had kind of recoiled from her pressure with that "It was a joke" moment. So you'll see a progression here in which Wiml takes that moment and turns it into interrogation. In that sense, he isn't missing a beat in a moment when, his "mafia teammate" (hypothetically) is already in an awkward spot. Most teammates leave that alone instead of jumping on it immediately and making it worse. So I think that's a good thing for Wiml.

Orange - You'll note that on a few occasions, Wiml makes it known that he is willing to hear the town side of the story from or about Lime Coke. This kind of thing can easily be lip service, so that it's there is less important than how it's executed. Did Wiml actually give Lime Coke a chance? I think he did. He asked LC numerous questions about various different dynamics in the game thread, which offered him a variety of avenues to find his way back into the good graces. I think that's a good thing for Wiml, because it evidences that he was genuinely trying to make that possible in the absence of total certainty. He was confident, but he didn't know that Lime Coke was mafia. In that sense, I don't see TMI in Wiml's treatment of Lime Coke.

If the above was faked in a deliberate bus, then Wiml deserves a lot of credit for crafting that dialogue so well. He is a very good player in the mafia alignment, and that sometimes leads to paranoia or base assumptions that "if it's possible, it's true". One must make a judgment: I don't think Wiml is Lime Coke's teammate.

~~~

Conclusion

I don't think anyone has Wiml in their crosshairs right now, and I am fine with that. The above contains the nuanced details if anyone wants to go deeper than just "played a key role in eliminating a mafioso".

Bumping this for analysis.

[Epignosis]

I'm comfortable using JJJ's post above for reference.

[Epignosis]

JJJ said, "I'll pass."

I'll say, "I'll play."

Wiml is Lime Coke's teammate.

[Epignosis]

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

Sir if there is one thing that I am, it is scared.

Oh this post is fun.

[Epignosis]

JJJ has it rather backwards. It's Michelle who is civilian. Wiml is mafia.

[Epignosis]

Someone from spoiler chat let me know how I'm doin.

[Epignosis]

Shit, to be clear, that's:

"Someone from spoiler chat, please let me know how I'm doing. Amen."

[Epignosis]

I think Michelle is good.
I think Wiml is bad.
I could go either way on PA
Same with Wilgy.
I don't think Roxy is bad at this time.
Unvote is always solid.

[Epignosis]

I'm booooooooooooooored

[Epignosis]

I bet Syn has a bunch of bugs loose in the house and that's how this mafia game came to be. Clean up yo shit Syn. Clean it up. Can't have no nastiness.

[Epignosis]

[Syn]

I bet Syn has a bunch of bugs loose in the house and that's how this mafia game came to be. Clean up yo shit Syn. Clean it up. Can't have no nastiness.

I'm gonna tell your sons they can buy 1500 live ladybugs on Amazon for $10

[Epignosis]

I bet Syn has a bunch of bugs loose in the house and that's how this mafia game came to be. Clean up yo shit Syn. Clean it up. Can't have no nastiness.

I'm gonna tell your sons they can buy 1500 live ladybugs on Amazon for $10

We get those bitches for free.

[Wiml]

Lol ok.

[Wiml]

Please don't make me spend a lot of time addressing these things.

Feels like a bit of a throw tbqh (and if Epi is town I'm genuinely concerned about the state of the game).

[Wiml]

"Choke" would probably be the better word, mb.

Could be just waited an extra day phase and I'd have been dead lol.

[Wiml]

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

Sir if there is one thing that I am, it is scared.

Oh this post is fun.

The guy was highkey scared of engaging with me at all.

I pretty heavily cased him on that exact thing D1.

[Wiml]

Sure, let's do it

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

From the wording of this post it's like someone else suggested it, but no one asked for hammer at that moment.

I was obviously in the middle of a discussion.
But that discussion could change the thread momentum (explanation for hammer from Wiml earlier today), WIM and etc, so Wiml put Quin at L-1.

Because I was the one who's voice was cut in the middle of an interaction I am frustrated. But that's not the important part, not the fact I couldn’t post makes me wolf read Wiml, it's the meaning of Brad giving up to play with an inactive partner he was pushing so conviced.
I know Brad, I know he grew up as player a lot and I doubt he would let his inactive mate with such a burden. He stayed silent because his mate was town read and he didn't want to ruin his/her town credit.
He hates wolfing? Idk. I never asked him that. But I don't like that kind of meta 'facts' because wolves are often using these to obtain town credit.
Before my wolf game I linked, Brad had a game where he won as the last wolf standing.
It doesn't matter if he likes it or not.
He can do it.

What is important is the next posts from Wiml.
Who is allegedly advising town to keep playing despite a possible town flip from Quin.

It seems for me that Wiml knew that Quin will flip villager, otherwise why the advice if he was convinced the game ends?


Thoughs?

I made it very clear that I thought that the game continuing on was plausible. I wasnt considering Quin to be actively outed like I did with Lime Coke, I was just struggling to find a wolf outside of them.

A lot of your case is preflipping me wolf and then explaining why it's plausible that those actions could come from a wolf instead of explaining why you think I'm wolfy.

The things about a D2 hammer are, tbf, factually wrong and that seems like the only thing behind your case that makes you actively wolf read me. My response to that is "read Day 2".

Probably not responding to the case on me further.

[Wiml]

Brad just struggles to wolf at low WIM and has to put a lot of effort into wolfing convincingly, I think it's pretty evident that a Brad/x game where x wasn't somebody Brad was confident would go deep would justify his low WIM..

[Wiml]

Epi putting me dangerously close to hammer range despite me vocally asking for no hammer and Epi vocally calling hammers bad is noted.

[Wiml]

Spoiler: show

My PoE is still Quin/Epi/Kate (with Wilgy if I had to add a 4th).

Day 2. I was in Wiml's shit list.

We begin today:

Please don't quickhammer overnight, going to try to put some time aside to deep dive stuff today.

Fwuw Epi I also don't think you're wolfing.

But I need to think over things some more.

I ask this and receive a response:

My PoE is still Quin/Epi/Kate (with Wilgy if I had to add a 4th).

Fwuw Epi I also don't think you're wolfing.

But I need to think over things some more.

What changed?

I think you're pretty villagery and Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you rn. I also think that there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above you in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase.

The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer.

This didn't answer my question, so I asked for clarification. In the meantime:

Quin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Epi / Kate / Wilgy

I suppose that’ll do as a “full” POE pool.

Second in the queue.

What fun to spend Day 3 convincing these dung beetles that I'm not it.

You are bad with Lime Coke. What do you do?

1. Create chaos in thread
2. Have Lime Coke lynch you over clever "slip up"
3. Protect Lime Coke to get through Day 1 whole
4. Try to get JJJ lynched for fun
5. Any or all of the above
6. Squander first time being bad with Lime Coke

These posts (the former in particular) gave me good vibes @Michelle

I gave some good vibes here in these cartoonish posts? Perhaps.

What I'm struggling with is the order of things:

Please don't quickhammer overnight, going to try to put some time aside to deep dive stuff today.

First.

I think you're pretty villagery and Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you rn. I also think that there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above you in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase.

The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer.

The big deal lies in the little words.

"I think you're pretty villagery"

(doesn't answer the question)

"AND Kate is individually a lot more likely to be a wolf than you [right now]."

(don't know what that thought has to do with me or why you already think that if you need to check people out more thoroughly)

"I ALSO think there's a reasonable chance that the wolf could be above in my PoE and so want to check people out more thoroughly this day phase."

(don't know what that thought has to do with me)

The and and also link those thoughts to the original one, which I didn't ask about. I didn't ask about hammering today. I didn't ask about Kate. I didn't ask about people Wiml might also be considering. My question was a simple one: "What changed?" This was regarding me and me only.

None of this tells me what I did in the span between Day 2 and now to show why I'm "villagery."

Because there isn't an answer. It's to reassure me. I am far from reassured.

"The latter point is why I very adamantly don't want a hammer."

How is that? That post is tied to me by the AND and ALSO. The desire for avoiding a quick hammer came first (see the second item I quoted above) but was tied to my own posts that came later. Returning to and spoilering the fun gifs:

Spoiler: show

Quin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Epi / Kate / Wilgy

I suppose that’ll do as a “full” POE pool.

Second in the queue.

What fun to spend Day 3 convincing these dung beetles that I'm not it.

You are bad with Lime Coke. What do you do?

1. Create chaos in thread
2. Have Lime Coke lynch you over clever "slip up"
3. Protect Lime Coke to get through Day 1 whole
4. Try to get JJJ lynched for fun
5. Any or all of the above
6. Squander first time being bad with Lime Coke

These posts (the former in particular) gave me good vibes @Michelle

But it wasn't as much that Epi trended up (since I always had him as reasonably towny and he was just in my PoE because others were townier with better evidence backing them up and he hasn't had that) and more that I'm now putting a less weight onto Kate's one post that I was semi-clearing her on so she's no longer on a similar level of towniness as Epi for me.

These posts gave good vibes? That's an extremely empty thing for Wiml to say about me when I was on the shit list previously. There's no interaction with these posts. There's also the "I always had him as reasonably towny and he was just in my PoE because others were townier with better evidence backing them up and he hasn't had that." That's a lot of words in which you said absolutely nothing about me. Not a thing. Because you don't know what to say about me.

And I got railroaded into Kate again somehow. Isn't that something?

@Epignosis for the sake of actually engaging with this.

I'll go point by point:

1. "(doesn't answer the question)"

I answered, I said that I always thought that you were likely town in a vacuum.

I later clarified that I thought Kate was more likely a wolf than you (significantly increasing the odds that you were town) and that I felt less confident in my reads above you being correct (significantly increasing the odds that you were town. Having 4x90% confidence reads is a lot more margin for error than 4x95% for example).

My read on you in a vacuum basically did not change. I had you as towny by posting but much less clear than anyone else. You only moved in my reads due to people around you shifting.

2. "These posts gave good vibes? That's an extremely empty thing for Wiml to say about me when I was on the shit list previously. "

Michelle EXPLICITLY asked me for posts of yours that I thought were towny. I made it clear that I did not find you significantly more towny during D3 and was simply obliging her requests by picking out a couple posts that felt weakly towny. Hence the phrasing "good vibes" to try to show that they were very weak things and not overall representative of my Epi read.

3. "That's a lot of words in which you said absolutely nothing about me"

I've been pretty unapologetic about saying that I don't have a confident read on you, yes.

[Wiml]

But shrug

Can't answer why a read changed if it didn't change.

[Wiml]

I so wish that JJJ was alive.

[Wiml]

If somebody has a wolf game on Roxy or a confident read on her that they haven't already shared (Kate?) then I'd appreciate it.

I'm so close to confidently locking her in as town but it's hard to do it in good faith without being able to verify the arguments that I'm using.

[Wiml]

And still here with the open invitation for anybody who thinks Abigail might be a wolf to explain to me what they think her gameplan was on D1.

[Michelle]

Brad just struggles to wolf at low WIM and has to put a lot of effort into wolfing convincingly, I think it's pretty evident that a Brad/x game where x wasn't somebody Brad was confident would go deep would justify his low WIM..

This is the reason you were convinced Quin was bad and justifies further pushes on LHFs and I said Brad is not like that and you avoided that part

The explanation that you didnt consider Quin outed but put him at L-1 at the middle of the DP is like you didnt care to further analyse game posts to check it again.
24 hours, Jay coming back to talk to me and everyone else, Quin coning back and possibly towning up, all these were made impossible because you voted a player you were not sold is a wolf.

And I should believe you are good, because?

[Michelle]

@Kate
@Roxy
@DrWilgy

Please share your thoughts about the game, we need activity here

[Wiml]

Brad just struggles to wolf at low WIM and has to put a lot of effort into wolfing convincingly, I think it's pretty evident that a Brad/x game where x wasn't somebody Brad was confident would go deep would justify his low WIM..

This is the reason you were convinced Quin was bad and justifies further pushes on LHFs and I said Brad is not like that and you avoided that part

The explanation that you didnt consider Quin outed but put him at L-1 at the middle of the DP is like you didnt care to further analyse game posts to check it again.
24 hours, Jay coming back to talk to me and everyone else, Quin coning back and possibly towning up, all these were made impossible because you voted a player you were not sold is a wolf.

And I should believe you are good, because?

Yes, I realised I forgot to address your argument about Brad in the post above. I still agree with what I said there but it's not something I'm pushing strongly on in a vacuum.

I made it clear that I thought that Quin was likely to be a wolf. I wasn't certain but I was confident enough that I didn't have much motivation for solving outside of voting Quin and the hammer was beneficial there due to the threadstate for already established reasons.

We agreed to hammer for basically all of D2. Iirc I wasn't even the biggest hammer advocate. Please read D2 again if you're going to keep pushing this

I don't care about self towncasing myself to you since we both know that it's a waste of energy I could be using to solve but I approached Brad in a -ev way if I were wolfing and Brad spewed me pretty heavily town.

[Wiml]

Michelle on a personal accountability level I don't take any responsibility for the hammer being bad for you.

I'm sorry but you needed to communicate explicitly since you left things open to interpretation and I misinterpreted.

Like, I'm sorry it happened and I get that you're annoyed but I'm not to blame for that and I think we gave more than sufficient warning and the way you said things made me think that you weren't confident in ending the game this day phase but were happy to hammer and see for threadstate reasons.

[Wiml]

Realised Roxy was a wolf in Felt Mafia so reading through that.

So far it looks very likely that Roxy is town here.

[Wiml]

I keep saying I'm not going to engage and keep getting dragged in lmao.

[Wiml]

Alright, I'd still like to see other wolf-Roxy games if people have them (as she never really had to say much about her team in Felt) but what I've seen lines up with what Wilgy said shpuld clear Roxy and lines up with the reasons why I think Roxy is town this game so I buy it.

[Wiml]

I think Michelle is good.
I think Wiml is bad.
I could go either way on PA
Same with Wilgy.
I don't think Roxy is bad at this time.
Unvote is always solid.

Is this really the extent of your reads list three days into the game?

You have two nulls (three including Kate?), one weak town lean, one wolf read that you just formed now and is due to semantics and one town read that you also just seem to have formed now because of her push on me.

Why is Roxy town for you?
Why is Michelle town for you?

Where are your reads from previous day phases? What have you been doing solve-wise over those day phases?

[Wiml]

Epi you were just pushing on me for having a read that you perceived to be a null read while also having a reads list like that?

[Wiml]

If the last wolf isn't exactly Kate then this threadstate is becoming an issue.

[Wiml]

Epi what changed from you calling everyone town and having no suspects yesterday to opening the PoE to everyone minus Michelle and Roxy today?

This lines up exactly with what your gameplan for victory needs to be if you're a wolf.

[Wiml]

@Michelle if you think I'm underestimating you as a powerwolf, could you link a couple of the strongest wolf games of yours to prove it?

[Wiml]

But let's be real, it's not Michelle.

Find a villager in Abigail/Wilgy and my PoE wins the game.

[Wiml]

@Kate Sorry for pinging you a bunch but if you're town and have the availability to play it would be greatly, greatly appreciated.

[Wiml]

@DrWilgy @☆Princess Abigail☆ I know you are putting the effort in already but please continue to do so today as much as possible.

[Wiml]

@Michelle sell me on Epi being town?

[Wiml]

Whom I THINK can be a wolf is...

....

....

THIS GUY!!!

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'd love to hear more about that.

Doesn't seem to care about his vote.

His question towards Epi voting Quinn didn't feel like something he was trying to use to solve Epi and didn't look like he cared about the response.

I completely fail to see how this spews Epi town like at all Michelle.

It's a very mild chainsaw defence if anything, wolves do this all the time.

[Wiml]

also I miss splints this game and also SVS.

I've got reasons to TR a few players, and as of now I'm looking at Epi, Lime & Kate.

Falcon's final PoE.

He was voting Epi for a lot of D1.

[Wiml]

This series of posts isn't intended to be a wolf case on Epi, I'm just floating things in the thread as I'm thinking them and it's sort of just caused a chain reaction of thoughts for me.