Severance [Evening Four]

[leetic]

scum team gets into the thick of EOD and seems to have lost control of the thread

all three are being voted up

why do TSP and I not both just consolidate on Dizzy, WIFOM aside, and score town points for it

especially after I just played a game I should have lost for _not burying the slanker teammate_

that's my point

you played that game with me, you understand my perspective better than anyone else can here

Anyway, if you aren't a wolf, do you agree there is at least one wolf in Dizzy/Abby?

I had to write out names to see if this is just a math test

pyxxy - town

bereft - town
gira - town
leetic - town
Rondo - town
ranmilia - scum

that leaves

dizzy
abigail
ted

I think my answer is yes

You/Dizzy/Abby all being town would mean both remaining wolves were on TSP, which would be odd as there'd be seemingly little incentive to bus in that situation

Or that ted is lying I guess, but I'm willing to buy him for now damned roleblockers

[Gira]

I mean, even I have said i would rather vote out pyxxy than dizzy and rondo
Meaning I am not really defending him, even if I don't really think his wagon is a hit
And I acknowledge that's part of the reason why he's a very easy wolf agenda push if he's town. It would mean he has TWO inactive partners, or if they're active, they just aren't bothering to save him.

It doesn’t have to be that though — flash wagons that emerge 2 hours before EOD tend to dissipate just as fast, and his wolf partners could just be willing to wait it out (not that I think he’s a wolf)

mmmm

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

[pyxxy]

@Ranmilia what's your breakdown or VCA of the last ~6 hours from D2's EOD?

How did wolf TSP get chopped but wolf pyxxy didn't?

If that's the results wolves wanted, why didn't I just throw a random ass vote on TSP and parade around the ring with my quotes sussing TSP on D1?

I mean

yes, exactly

why didn't you vote TSP after sussing him d1? Instead you parked on dizzy.

And yeah dizzy is probably also a wolf but you're yelling about doming me for... going back and forth and also wanting dizzy and tsp out??

This is the same sort of opposites land stuff TSP was pushing.

TSP was pushing what exactly?

TSP's abi/ran/gira stuff throughout the game.

You're in the same breath calling me a mastermind wolf hard bussing dizzy/tsp and calling yourself town because you can't possibly be a mastermind wolf bussing dizzy/tsp because you didn't go tsp when chips were down.

Like what even is your thought process here?

um

I very much am pointing out that you didn't hard bus TSP

you shaded him but when it mattered, you hedged and wanted Dizzy to die instead

1. I am responsible for TSP even being a wagon in the first place.
2. Yes and? I still want that slot dead.
3. which people may not be considering if they weren't there for the EOD: I went back to dizzy offering a fortnite gift card because the eod was so weirdly static to see who would jump. That was an info play. Nobody jumped. I can't prove this to you, and I can't say I never considered going through and killing dizzy if my towns were willing, but on the main I said I was voting with Wind and I meant that.

1. nah

2. this is responding to your mastermind comment

3. "I said I was voting with Wind and I meant that."

The micro around ted's claim passed the smell test for me tho, so I rlly rlly rlly do not see myself reevaluating there

I have reasons why his claim didn't pass the smell test for me

If you think you're about to be night killed and its going to be lost with you why are you not sharing it?

Cause ngl I was hoping Ted would possibly eat the nightkill so I wouldn't have to solve him
I targeted him last night and I find it suspicious that he said he won't answer any questions about whatever his role is

NO
STOP
WHY
sdgkhsdkghsdklg

If any of the people who are doubting me are town, here's a biscuit for you, I knew all these PRs and never kill mac over them.

Fine. Wind I will likely vote with you. I want dizzy, bereft, tsp out the most as you know. I can see pyxxy as well. Who do you want.

This pings the hell out of me. In a good way. A great way, even.

@leetic sorry bud that list is out of date already

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

[leetic]

Even then, I think there must be at least one in pyxxy/Dizzy unless the team is exactly Abby/ted, otherwise there's no incentive for a hypothetical wolf Ranmilia or Bereft to bus. And even then, at a glance Abby/ted does not seem to have wolf equity.

[pyxxy]

scum team gets into the thick of EOD and seems to have lost control of the thread

all three are being voted up

why do TSP and I not both just consolidate on Dizzy, WIFOM aside, and score town points for it

especially after I just played a game I should have lost for _not burying the slanker teammate_

that's my point

you played that game with me, you understand my perspective better than anyone else can here

Anyway, if you aren't a wolf, do you agree there is at least one wolf in Dizzy/Abby?

I had to write out names to see if this is just a math test

pyxxy - town

bereft - town
gira - town
leetic - town
Rondo - town
ranmilia - scum

that leaves

dizzy
abigail
ted

I think my answer is yes

You/Dizzy/Abby all being town would mean both remaining wolves were on TSP, which would be odd as there'd be seemingly little incentive to bus in that situation

this is that good leetic goodness

[pyxxy]

I mean, even I have said i would rather vote out pyxxy than dizzy and rondo
Meaning I am not really defending him, even if I don't really think his wagon is a hit
And I acknowledge that's part of the reason why he's a very easy wolf agenda push if he's town. It would mean he has TWO inactive partners, or if they're active, they just aren't bothering to save him.

It doesn’t have to be that though — flash wagons that emerge 2 hours before EOD tend to dissipate just as fast, and his wolf partners could just be willing to wait it out (not that I think he’s a wolf)

mmmm

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

wait what

no stop come back, I thrive under pressure

[pyxxy]

Spoiler: show

here's a fun mech thought

it's bad for scum to kill leetic tonight, because severance

but it's bad if they don't

teehee

[Ranmilia]

No vote / Unvote
3
50%

Voters: pyxxy, Gira, 1 vote from guest

excuse me what

[Bereft]

Schweppes is a guest.

[leetic]

Wait, pyxxy lists Ranmilia and me as voters but it says pyxxy only has one vote? The hell's with the poll?

[leetic]

A quick vote switch between no vote and pyxxy seems to confirm that Ranmilia's vote counts for nothing for some reason

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The poll is being wonky. Sorry gang. I will fiddle with it, but if this anomaly doesn't go away, I will consider only the names on each wagon and not the numbers. If "guest" shows up voting an actual player, it will not count barring the discovery of an explanation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Posting this now in case the votes delete when I fiddle.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

I had to delete the poll to get rid of the issue. Please recast your votes as soon as you see this. This also means we lose the automated poll deadline. I will discuss how to handle that when the end of day is near.

[Ranmilia]

Vote recast. Where were we.

[pyxxy]

still here \o/

[pyxxy]

made dinner

[pyxxy]

Even then, I think there must be at least one in pyxxy/Dizzy unless the team is exactly Abby/ted, otherwise there's no incentive for a hypothetical wolf Ranmilia or Bereft to bus. And even then, at a glance Abby/ted does not seem to have wolf equity.

if I'm town am I incentivized to have me and dizzy go one-two (ignore order for this question)?

[Ranmilia]

So what I mean by the opposites land stuff is

if your worldview is me/dizzyslot, somehow,

why is your first inclination coming into today "thunderdome ran, the towniest player must be the mastermind powerwolf!" and not "kill dizzyslot and then thunderdome ran if she's still alive"

I see this as the same thing TSP was doing, trying to break up the towncore and sow dissension in the hopes something sticks. Not sure why your mind goes there if town.

[pyxxy]

So what I mean by the opposites land stuff is

if your worldview is me/dizzyslot, somehow,

why is your first inclination coming into today "thunderdome ran, the towniest player must be the mastermind powerwolf!" and not "kill dizzyslot and then thunderdome ran if she's still alive"

I see this as the same thing TSP was doing, trying to break up the towncore and sow dissension in the hopes something sticks. Not sure why your mind goes there if town.

because I was less certain about dizzy than you

feel like I quoted pretty solidly what I found sus and why about your treatment of TSP e.g. hedging but ultimately going onto Dizzy

I also remembered my interaction with TSP asking about you and felt like it very much got waved away like mutual defending

however when you brought up following Wind's vote, idk, the way you did it broke through the clouds for me. so you're town to me now

have we played together before?

[Ranmilia]

So what I mean by the opposites land stuff is

if your worldview is me/dizzyslot, somehow,

why is your first inclination coming into today "thunderdome ran, the towniest player must be the mastermind powerwolf!" and not "kill dizzyslot and then thunderdome ran if she's still alive"

I see this as the same thing TSP was doing, trying to break up the towncore and sow dissension in the hopes something sticks. Not sure why your mind goes there if town.

because I was less certain about dizzy than you

feel like I quoted pretty solidly what I found sus and why about your treatment of TSP e.g. hedging but ultimately going onto Dizzy

I also remembered my interaction with TSP asking about you and felt like it very much got waved away like mutual defending

however when you brought up following Wind's vote, idk, the way you did it broke through the clouds for me. so you're town to me now

have we played together before?

Hm.

I don't believe we have. Unless you were in the giant NPCs game last year but that still barely counts.

[pyxxy]

yeah I discounted secret playerlist when I was going through my games with TSP on phase zero

[Porscha]

Damn you Windward

Although granted, a wolf blocker may also be a possibility. I have no idea why town would have blocked me

is this you fullclaiming now

Just why did you feel the need to out my soft?

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

this post is just for that ^

[Ranmilia]

Ok I'm gonna pop the bubble on this.

I have JackofHearts in my head from the other thread. Figuratively. We have a neighborchat and he has limited posting powers, same as Abi/Porscha and what TSP claimed, except that he's limited to 5 posts per day of 20 words (this is a difference from previous claims of 10 posts/day, however it was given to me as part of the mech info not just a thing he is saying, so it is true.) He claims to have been nightkilled in the other thread after fake claiming cop.

Like others report, I am prohibited from excessive sharing to circumvent his posting limits, but I can paraphrase the general gist of things.

Illario apparently was mafia in the other thread and was taken down by a coalition of nutella('s posthumous reads, she was town and universally townread and died n1 as theorized), jack, scotty and cape90. The wagons were close, Tutuu voted to save illario and looks like his most likely partner. Tutuu seems to have been Robyn's pairmate and there was suspicion on their side robyn was scum (go figure). Highly optimistic that the other thread is on the way to an easy solve.

We have combined information and deduced a few other likely crossthread pairings, although I am not sure if sharing these is protown. @ me if anyone has a good reason to want to know.

I believe Jack is town, everything he's said checks out and makes sense, but also he's not talking to me very much since our initial convo. He floated the idea of keeping him secret to avoid me getting nightkilled to silence us, but given the gamestate over here I think that is not worth the additional confusion and paranoia.

[leetic]

Interesting we now basically have confirmation that ilario/TSP was w/w. Not sure this discounts w/t pairings but it's good to keep in mind.

[Ranmilia]

Oh and Porscha was town.

[leetic]

Confirmed pairings:
nutella/Mac
ilario/TSP
Porscha/Abby
Jack/Ranmilla
tutuu/robyn

[leetic]

Oh and Porscha was town.

Is there a fourteenth player in the other thread?

[pyxxy]

I could see a world of dropping your theorized pairings as a legacy but I think there's probably a lot of value in holding onto them

also. nice work other thread squad 🥹

[Ranmilia]

Oh and Porscha was town.

Is there a fourteenth player in the other thread?

Ooh good question, didn't come up.

[leetic]

Confirmed pairings:
nutella/Mac
ilario/TSP
Porscha/Abby
Jack/Ranmilla
tutuu/robyn

And now colored in with flips. Used lighter colors for the other thread since we can't directly verify the flips.

[Porscha]

numerically significant tsp/ila w/w

mirrors?

or chance?

[leetic]

Windward should be able to dispel any notions that robyn was a wolf. Granted, we've been stingy with regards to sending players to the other side so there's noone to corroborate what Windward is saying

[leetic]

numerically significant tsp/ila w/w

mirrors?

or chance?

If tutuu/robyn is w/t like Jack suggests, we'll have our answer. For now, the two people who I most want to flip (Dyslexicon and pyxxy) are unaffected by this

[leetic]

I will say, it's impressive that I managed to correctly wolfread ilario without them even posting anything

[Porscha]

I personally have little faith tutuu will flip wolf for the reasons provided ; idk

why want flip dizzy/made?

[pyxxy]

numerically significant tsp/ila w/w

mirrors?

or chance?

assuming 10/3 setup(ish), I think it's just 3/14 for chance, or am I mad at stats

[leetic]

I personally have little faith tutuu will flip wolf for the reasons provided ; idk

why want flip dizzy/made?

EoD looks really bad for them, just a lack of town effort in general, Dizzy's lame push is still really bad

[Ranmilia]

numerically significant tsp/ila w/w

mirrors?

or chance?

I doubt there'd be all same alignment pairs, that would go against the core flavor of the show.

Illario's exact role did not come up but I'd think he would've said if it was bus driver. The other thread definitely seems to have different roles in play than ours, though. Jack was the only player to claim anything, and he was not really a cop but he WAS a something that we certainly do not seem to have here.

[pyxxy]

cross-thread mech is back on the menu

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Guess this disproves my theory that the night kill effects both games. Iirc it doesn't say that WWA was removed from the game so they are probably a stump in the other thread. Which I wonder if that just means we got unlucky and Mac and Nut just happened to be tied together and killed on the same night

[pyxxy]

Mac a damia Nut

[Ranmilia]

I personally have little faith tutuu will flip wolf for the reasons provided ; idk

why want flip dizzy/made?

Read the dizzy and TSP ISOs, they look very paired. I'm waiting for Made to post but... well given illario scum confirmation the inactive wolfteam theory seems very very likely to me. Who do you think are wolves? And also where's Abigail, if you know anything? (this is not a very important question i guess, conserve words/posts accordingly, glad to have you here helping)

[Ranmilia]

Oh there's Abigail hi

[RondoDimBuckle]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

[leetic]

numerically significant tsp/ila w/w

mirrors?

or chance?

assuming 10/3 setup(ish), I think it's just 3/14 for chance, or am I mad at stats

If the chance of one wolf being paired with another wolf is assumed to be 3/13, the chance of at least one wolf being paired with another wolf is 1 - (10/13)^3 ≈ 54% chance. Of course, for simplicity this equation assumes independent events, so the actual probability is a bit different, but I think it goes to show that even if pairings are completely random a w/w pairing will arise a good percentage of the time.

[Ranmilia]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

[RondoDimBuckle]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

wat

[pyxxy]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

[leetic]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

I also claimed 2x Tracker that visited Bereft N1 (who visited nobody) and was roleblocked N2