Wolfwalkers Deireadh (ENDGAME)

[MartinGG99]

Ok this is important, because if you’re town, then this makes things easier, and there’s probably not a difference check between you. I’m just currently in my own Willy wonka factory and it’s called ‘Confirmation Bias’ and need to figure out if yall really are just wolf/wolf

Kinda surprised that if you're suspecting me then you're just taking my word for that, but you do you. If you reallllly want my comment on something let me know, but otherwise I'm not really going to engage you on the topic of me. I figure we prob have a few key differences in approaching the game which are probably some level of not-easily-reconciled (ex: "crazy"), in which case interaction between us might not help the situation all that much. Worst case could be like you doubling-down on me, and I might stupidly (I'm saying stupidly so I don't actually do that) reconsider you for just doubling down on me. Which would be really bad for town unity in LYLO.

[MartinGG99]

anyways gtg

will be back laterzzzz

(well before eod though)

[Scotty]

Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general

how did come after you day 2?

I made a wagon attribute of falcon’s wagon and he was one of the 4 that I felt had an opportunistic motivation. He basically No-U’d me and said my post was a blatant attempt at smearing him. Or something like that. And then he just simmered there for the rest of the day, offering other reads but never moving from me.

@MartinGG99 is baker the type of person that gets extremely defensive when pressured *as town*? How about *as wolf*?

[Scotty]

but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

That’s EXACTLY why I’ve been townreading him all game.

But it’s also EXACTLY why I’ve done a 180 because obviously something isn’t working. And town is being led astray. Why is that?

[Scotty]

Ok this is important, because if you’re town, then this makes things easier, and there’s probably not a difference check between you. I’m just currently in my own Willy wonka factory and it’s called ‘Confirmation Bias’ and need to figure out if yall really are just wolf/wolf

Kinda surprised that if you're suspecting me then you're just taking my word for that, but you do you. If you reallllly want my comment on something let me know, but otherwise I'm not really going to engage you on the topic of me. I figure we prob have a few key differences in approaching the game which are probably some level of not-easily-reconciled (ex: "crazy"), in which case interaction between us might not help the situation all that much. Worst case could be like you doubling-down on me, and I might stupidly (I'm saying stupidly so I don't actually do that) reconsider you for just doubling down on me. Which would be really bad for town unity in LYLO.

I think as a wolf, you’d still comment on your meta with baker. It’s an ingratiating tactic that I’ve used a lot as wolf- be as honest in your approach as possible, with details that stand out, but not revealing the actual motivation.

You threatening me here to not double down feels oftly like an ‘or else’ type of threat. Like, I don’t care if you scum read me, I’m trying to figure out if I can townread *you.*

Do you disagree that mafia have done absolutely nothing to advance any agenda? Because from your POE of Porscha/robyn/delta/baker, only baker is someone I would qualify as pushing the envelope, and that’s generous

[DrWilgy]

D1 Mid
Abigail: FaLCon, Scotty
LC: Martin, Garebare, Stick
FaLCon: Wilgy
Baker: MR, Baker

D1 EoD
Abigail: FaLCon, Scotty
LC: Garebare
FaLCon: Martin, Wilgy, Stick, Baker
Wilgy: LC
Baker: MR
Missing: Robyn, DM, Abigail

D2 Mid
Scotty: Baker
Abigail: LC
MR: Stick
DM: Martin
Stick: MR
Baker: DM, Wilgy, Scotty

D2 EoD
Scotty: Baker
DM: LC, Scotty, Stick, DM
Stick: MR, Martin
Baker: Wilgy
Missing: Robyn, Porshca

D3 Mid
Abigail/Porscha: MR
Stick: Baker
Garebare2468/Delta: Martin, LC, Wilgy, Scotty

D3 EoD
LC: Wilgy, Robyn, Scotty, Martin, Delta, Stick
Stick: MR, LC, Baker
Missing: Porscha

[MartinGG99]

Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general

how did come after you day 2?

I made a wagon attribute of falcon’s wagon and he was one of the 4 that I felt had an opportunistic motivation. He basically No-U’d me and said my post was a blatant attempt at smearing him. Or something like that. And then he just simmered there for the rest of the day, offering other reads but never moving from me.

@MartinGG99 is baker the type of person that gets extremely defensive when pressured *as town*? How about *as wolf*?

I think it varies on how much time he has on the game. I haven't seen many games where he's been able to be super-active over the past year, but as for the lower-ends of activity it lines up for town meta.

There is one wolf game in the past year (I don't know of any others of which I played with him or hosted) where he was preety defensive and assertive, but that may have been due to a closing/tightening mech situation.

Speaking of past games, I did do a bit of skimming to what he's said of me and he did make this statement once about me back in September (<- link to quote below), wherein that game he put me kinda firm at townread on d1:

Also, on a personal note: I believe I can read Martin very effectively due to certain reasons and history. My last meta read on him was accurate. Reading his champs game D1, I told MM how I could soulread Martin as mafia, and MM was underlining Axis to me. It turns out we were both correct xd

[MartinGG99]

I think as a wolf, you’d still comment on your meta with baker. It’s an ingratiating tactic that I’ve used a lot as wolf- be as honest in your approach as possible, with details that stand out, but not revealing the actual motivation.

That is true, but I think alongside that there would be like, y'know, more theater or something between Baker and I so as to not accidentally draw any associatives prior to either of our hypothetical deaths. Like say both of us are wolves for the sake of argument, and that we're planning to use meta arguments. If one of us dies and the other has to use those arguments, those will likely end up sounding (or getting treated very similarly to) self-meta arguments.

If baker died D2 and flipped wolf, I would look preety bad from it I think. Yet we didn't really theater.

You threatening me here to not double down feels oftly like an ‘or else’ type of threat. Like, I don’t care if you scum read me, I’m trying to figure out if I can townread *you.*

I completely agree that threating you was what I was doing there, as that would be a brilliant move by me. In other words, no, that wasn't my intent. Basically my past interactions with you generally don't have you end up shifting your opinions, or at least, if they do it's not clear if they ever do. At most you'd just give me a stare and then move on as if I no longer existed. I don't even really recall you townreading me, really.

Looking up now you actually have in one or two posts, but the reasoning was almost never given so I don't even know if what I've done in response to your interactions with me was responsible for that.

To be fair though I am in a bit of a grouchy mood IRL today. So maybe I just have a Problem (TM) and just didn't realize it -- I didn't think you would take it as a threat and maybe I'm being a bit uncharitable to you about interacting.

Do you disagree that mafia have done absolutely nothing to advance any agenda? Because from your POE of Porscha/robyn/delta/baker, only baker is someone I would qualify as pushing the envelope, and that’s generous

I don't disagree, preety much. They're advancing agendas today because they need to. Again, its three of four so I could be wrong on Delta or whatever. I don't quite know which one I'm wrong on, but I suspect to some level I am right on Baker town.

I've been looking at you + wilgy + MR + etc on occasion preety often over the course of D2, D3, and now D4 and I keep comming back with townreads for the most part. I don't see why I should throw those in the trash in the presence of possible low-activity/influence scum team.

Also, like, the job I recently hosted on The Syndicate lost primarily to towns not finding each other lol. Wilgy here was bussing Darling Monroe in that game alllll day and yet neither of them died. Not to say that is exactly what's been happening here, but its partially why I'm more insistent on my town reads as of late.

[DrWilgy]

Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

[robyn]

mmmmmm, after some reflection is a chance i’m wrong on baker, cause when i do write a lot about something i can easily confirmation bias myself. with too much certainty, it’s happened a few times on mu and the result was hard wolfsiding

[MartinGG99]

D1 Mid
Abigail: Falcon, Scotty
LC: Martin, Garebare, Stick
Falcon: Wilgy
Baker: MR, Baker

D1 EoD
Abigail: FaLCon, Scotty
LC: Garebare
Falcon: Martin, Wilgy, Stick, Baker
Wilgy: LC
Baker: MR
Missing: Robyn, DM, Abigail

D2 Mid
Scotty: Baker
Abigail: LC
MR: Stick
DM: Martin
Stick: MR
Baker: DM, Wilgy, Scotty

D2 EoD
Scotty: Baker
DM: LC, Scotty, Stick, DM
Stick: MR, Martin
Baker: Wilgy
Missing: Robyn, Porshca

D3 Mid
Abigail/Porscha: MR
Stick: Baker
Garebare2468/Delta: Martin, LC, Wilgy, Scotty

D3 EoD
LC: Wilgy, Robyn, Scotty, Martin, Delta, Stick
Stick: MR, LC, Baker
Missing: Porscha

Mid D3 we would've had all non-town wagons

with my theory

[MartinGG99]

Baker in pink because he's the "what if" of it all.

[MartinGG99]

I'd hate to do this to stick but I kinda feel as though me making a case as to who's their protect target could be rather helpful in this situation.

[MartinGG99]

I'd hate to do this to stick but I kinda feel as though me making a case as to who's their protect target could be rather helpful in this situation.

Also, like, decent chance the mafia already have a preety good idea who it is considering they know who's mafia and therefore automatically very unlikely to be a protect target.

[DrWilgy]

In effort to utilize VCA to see what teams don't exist:
Scotty/Porscha not aligned
Scotty/Baker not aligned
Martin/Stick not aligned
Scotty/Stick not aligned
Baker/Stick not aligned
Delta/Martin/Scotty not the team

[DrWilgy]

In effort to utilize VCA to see what teams don't exist:
Scotty/Porscha not aligned
Scotty/Baker not aligned
Martin/Stick not aligned
Scotty/Stick not aligned
Baker/Stick not aligned
Delta/Martin/Scotty not the team

Further this means the potential teams are:
Scotty/Robyn/Delta
Scotty/Robyn/Martin
Porscha/Robyn/Stick
Porscha/Robyn/Delta
Porscha/Robyn/Baker
Porscha/Robyn/Martin
Porscha/Stick/Detla
Porscha/Delta/Baker
Porscha/Delta/Martin
Robyn/Stick/Delta
Robyn/Delta/Baker
Robyn/Delta/Martin
Robyn/Baker/Martin
Delta/Baker/Martin


bleh, I don't think I'll be able to validate this further. I keep getting pulled away and my time is probably better spent doing other things. At least I'll have this as a ref later.

[DrWilgy]

@DrWilgy [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

If you’re town please help. Who’s your top suspect?

My track record is really good in lylo but I can’t solve everything (though I can try )

Been busy.

PoE still contains Porscha, Stick, Delta, Robyn.

Still game losing.

Baker's out of PoE via dichotomy with Robyn. Robyn vouching is of 3 options 1. a correct civ 2. a wolf with tmi 3. A wolf shielding buddy.

Any of these situations Robyn's in control of the dichotomy and to be yeeted first.

I do intend on deeper diving this evening when the kids are asleep.

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

In Robyn’s defense, they aren’t always right.

And the dooming sentiment that we lose if Robyn is wrong is…not helpful? I feel like Robyn is behaving in a way similar to how LC behaved, and I was very wrong about him. A lot of the game has felt getting rid of the middle of the road players, and if we really are in a 3 person mafia, we’re being led around by *someone* or *sometwo*. Robyn hasn’t done much leading- if anything, they’ve just been coasting.

Can mafia coast? Probably, but look at our yeets: falcon, DM, LC. DM could be in contention for a big contributor that was misyeeted, but in the big scope, someone is pulling the strings here.

I feel like our chances increase of getting out of today if we focus on *who* has been yanking our underwear and giving us wedgies as opposed to a slot like Robyn/porscha/delta. Even if I have certain reservations about all of those names

There's no sentiment here. Simply an explanation that Porscha asked for regarding Baker and my feelings towards proceeding on the slot. As we are in lylo, if the play is to vote Baker, and Robyn is town, and doesn't vote Baker, then we lose as wolves have parity/tie enablement. That's just how it is.

I don't think that there's evidence to support that we are in fact being led around. Even just looking at the VCA, it's near impossible to parse what are likely pure wagons and what aren't due to inactivity.

If there is an active wolf, sure they are skewing wagons and the direction of the game, but if we have an active wolf, that means we have even more inactive town that are just sitting there i.e. the that's active doesn't need to lead squat.

[DrWilgy]

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

Aye, It's more losing to have a shit poe that's too wide than to have someone in there that you can likely be wrong on. That's just a gameplay viewpoint though.

Re tomorrow, we'll have more data. There'll be a kill and there'll be a red flip if we are still in the game, with more data we can likely have a better conclusion on Baker.

If I wanted to push a dif between Baker and Robyn I would. That'd be simple. I'd not need to hide it between the dichotomy that Robyn set up themselves.

You seem to be pointing all the ways I 'COULD' be wolf rather than just finding why I am in fact the wolf. If you think I'm setting up a dif between town for the win, say so and point it out as such. If you think I've been distancing with a wolf Baker teammate, say so and point out why. There's too many ifs and buts and not enough conclusion or decisiveness in your words my friend.

Be confident in yourself, you don't have a weakness in reading me, I think you are correct on my slot more often than not.

Working on other worlds and pairings now. Trying to take a step back and view other angles.

Simple things such as finding who has the highest likelyhood to be paired with anyone i.e. You/Delta are at least a greater chance for a hit than not.

Figuring out if Robyn's push on my slot is wolf inspired or not.

Baker and Stick are both in slots to 'solve later' as it's impossible to find the pairings that break the 3p claim without red flips and assocs and dynamics around Baker indicate more evidence would come from other's before I should vote there.

On that note, even if there's another 3rd party, there's nothing to make them counter claim Stick I presume unless they have a condition against wolfsiding. A sticky situation methinks that we can only solve with a red flip to point us towards stick.

Martin's vote record keeps appearing in my mind as 'should scrutinize this more' but idk, I think i just lose to W Martin. I think I just lose to W Scotty as well at this point. I think I'd lose to both of those slots, and think 'unfortunate I randed town this game' and leave it at that.

[DrWilgy]

but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

[DrWilgy]

Gonna read through the EoD shyt I missed last cylcle and hope I have stamina to do some more dynamic pairing work.

[MartinGG99]

but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

Eh, just a frame of talking I got used to since talking and thinking about 3ps and wincons.

I also have a habit of judging people not through comparison to myself. More often I'm judging through theoretical plays and etc of which are not really related to myself except where my cognitive and preferential biases lie (and may or may not be aware of). Hence I'm more likely to frame it that way.

[DrWilgy]

I think Robyn has shown enough to earn a pass. Martin has faded but also not a choice for today. Wilgy has gotten attention today but again not a today thing.

Stick I'm still not sold on but willing to wait a bit more.

Delta/Porscha/LC is my pool.

Aye, I don't know if Robyn is wolf unless MR had 2 of Robyn's teammates correct. MR didn't have anyone really on lock too, so that's why 2 more likely than one.

Delta/Porscha/Martin seem to gain equity from the MR nk.

[DrWilgy]

Like, wolves didn't NEED to nk MR as a 'we'll never yeet this slot' there's plenty of yeetable slots with MR alive. Really makes me think 1-2 in those three above.

[DrWilgy]

Some slot reviews. Pairing work.

Delta

@Delta you despise creating difference check dichotomies - whyre you just agreeing with me on that when i havent even explained it yet

I'm not 100% on it but I think Wilgy's had some ??? moments but LC's walkback on the scumread on him was so jarring that there's a wolf between them but not 100% on who.

If one flipped town I'd reeval the other anyway but I think between them their play has felt weird enough that I dont think they're pure but also dont think they're w/w, more on LC's side than Wilgy's

??? moments indeed.

out your person, @Stick

@Delta what are your reads as of right now?

[VOTE: wigly] aubergine

I think Porscha could be a wolf & if so, Wilgy could be as well for how he reacted to me EOD?. I do believe his SOD though & said I'd reread him if LC flipped v which happened so eh

I think Stick has to be 3p looking at numbers and the situation we're in

Outside of that I am v curious about Martin's EOD and Scotty in general since I didn't see much of him yesterday, same w Baker

ignore porscha today or i’ll chop you myself. 3 days 3 ml’s means some of the top posters are scum. especially if there are 3 fucking wolves

solve inside the active players

fmpov wigly is basically lockscum

Can get you on that, run me through your thought process though? I'll read through it in the morning \o/

This feels like not an interaction between W/W. Kinda like a 'nice suspicion you got there Robyn, I'd love o roll with it,' said the wolf.

Not much there. Delta feels stunted. I'm used to Delta being able to provide full and thorough readlists and that's lacking. Delta's wishy washy behavior on me doesn't inspire confidence. Delta's stance toward's Porscha is kinda weird. There's alot of 'WELL HERE'S PORSCHA, but let's talk about LC and Wilgy, what do you say Robyn?'

I'd say not W/W with Robyn, but that's of the few exclusion's I can make from this ISO skim.

[Porscha]

Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

for the record I only missed one vote, which was day 3, and it would have been sheeping MR onto stick for nothing fruitful. I'm trying not to be biased here because I know you're working with what you have to try and solve with the vca, but claiming that I am the only afk when delta's slot was also afk seems like you aren't bringing it up on purpose. if the vca sucks to use, then just... don't rely on it? saying "yeh baker/martin is diff check, anyway lets vote the lhf" is so wildly misplaced... what's your actual read on me?

[DrWilgy]

Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

for the record I only missed one vote, which was day 3, and it would have been sheeping MR onto stick for nothing fruitful. I'm trying not to be biased here because I know you're working with what you have to try and solve with the vca, but claiming that I am the only afk when delta's slot was also afk seems like you aren't bringing it up on purpose. if the vca sucks to use, then just... don't rely on it? saying "yeh baker/martin is diff check, anyway lets vote the lhf" is so wildly misplaced... what's your actual read on me?

Aye, would it feel better if I advised 'your slot missed 3 votes?' Delta's slot has a vote, Garebare voted d1, Delta voted d3. This was also strictly an objective look at VCA alone. I'm not relying asolely upon it as I feel that is what you are implying. It is valuable information and would be silly to not utilize everything we have regardless of how sparce.

You're slot is relatively wolfy as I'm reviewing now. Abi had some early 'obv town reads' that seem relatively simple TMI and not much past it. The only not W/W pairing from what I can tell on your slot from Abi is from Scotty voting the slot early currently. There's also some interactions with Baker and Martin, but those feel more inconclusive towards removing w/w pairings. Delta's interaction's with you are concerning and somewhat awkward as I've pointed out. MR before death advised that your slot needs more scrutiny, along Delta/Martin. Abi also seemed to point 'I can't get a grasp on Robyn and LC' earlier one we know is town and one we know was read to be town by dead town (MR). Lastly as I review Abi's slot, I do think it's easier to read:

I feel like I've done more than enough today for "I think we all think Abigail is scummy" to become "Abigail is readable actually" and yanno the only explanation I've got for scumminess is activity and that I was a CW

Which is asanine the wagons were T v T

as wolfy frustration as opposed to townie frustration. If this was towny frustration, I'd think Abi would've proceeded to iron out the towncore and move from players wanting to 'yeet the slot because cw' and that didn't happen.

Omgus-ish now as it involves your interactions with me directly, I've put so much content into the thread, it really feels like you are using a relatively simple means to decide to vote for me or not. If my interaction's with Baker fypov aren't conclusive on my alignment, where is reading into the other interaction's I have with other players?

[Porscha]

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

Aye, It's more losing to have a shit poe that's too wide than to have someone in there that you can likely be wrong on. That's just a gameplay viewpoint though.

Re tomorrow, we'll have more data. There'll be a kill and there'll be a red flip if we are still in the game, with more data we can likely have a better conclusion on Baker.

If I wanted to push a dif between Baker and Robyn I would. That'd be simple. I'd not need to hide it between the dichotomy that Robyn set up themselves.

You seem to be pointing all the ways I 'COULD' be wolf rather than just finding why I am in fact the wolf. If you think I'm setting up a dif between town for the win, say so and point it out as such. If you think I've been distancing with a wolf Baker teammate, say so and point out why. There's too many ifs and buts and not enough conclusion or decisiveness in your words my friend.

Be confident in yourself, you don't have a weakness in reading me, I think you are correct on my slot more often than not.

Working on other worlds and pairings now. Trying to take a step back and view other angles.

Simple things such as finding who has the highest likelyhood to be paired with anyone i.e. You/Delta are at least a greater chance for a hit than not.

Figuring out if Robyn's push on my slot is wolf inspired or not.

Baker and Stick are both in slots to 'solve later' as it's impossible to find the pairings that break the 3p claim without red flips and assocs and dynamics around Baker indicate more evidence would come from other's before I should vote there.

On that note, even if there's another 3rd party, there's nothing to make them counter claim Stick I presume unless they have a condition against wolfsiding. A sticky situation methinks that we can only solve with a red flip to point us towards stick.

Martin's vote record keeps appearing in my mind as 'should scrutinize this more' but idk, I think i just lose to W Martin. I think I just lose to W Scotty as well at this point. I think I'd lose to both of those slots, and think 'unfortunate I randed town this game' and leave it at that.

are me and delta like that just b/c of activity or vca?

and I mean... what I laid out is possible, it's sort of like what I said before - It's something i'm eyeballing and I'd really only be sold on you w/w with baker if baker flipped red today. I can't say for certain that is what you're doing and while I appreciate your remark on my being able to read you, my insecurities tell me otherwise

[Porscha]

Immediate thoughts as I scroll through VCA:

We've not resolved a single EoD1 wagon, which kinda stinks. With town appearing in other wagons though, it's almost impossible for Falc to be pure if we are thinking we are actually in the 3v1v4 world that we are in. If we are in 2 v 2 v 4 or 2 v 1 v 5 it becomes POSSIBLE, but with the warning of lylo the first unfortunate world makes more sense.

IF Stick actually is 3p, there's a dif between Martin/Baker. Wish we had that information before the EoD chaos last cycle.

D2 Scotty/Baker dif appears again on the mid wagon. Scotty was also on the townflip DM. The other wagons aren't resolved enough to call any of these pure or not.

Martin appears on DM in isolation and moves to stick. Kinda rough D2 for Martin if stick actually is 3p.

Ah, Garebare was also missing D2, forgot to note that.

This silly trifecta of Robyn, Porscha, Delta missing so many votes is painful. The only vote data I have on Delta is they voted town twice. Porscha's slot has missed all 3 votes.

Really feels like a scenario where there's just not enough data to solve with this. Half inclined to just vote Porscha and hope it's a wolf because I don't want to lose to afk wolf.

Martin and Scotty look weird after reviewing this, but ALMOST seems as if it's just because they've been here and other's havent so they have the opportunity to look weird.

./sigh

Think this is like the 2nd game in a row where I feel like utilization of VCA is proving to be somewhat less than useful.

for the record I only missed one vote, which was day 3, and it would have been sheeping MR onto stick for nothing fruitful. I'm trying not to be biased here because I know you're working with what you have to try and solve with the vca, but claiming that I am the only afk when delta's slot was also afk seems like you aren't bringing it up on purpose. if the vca sucks to use, then just... don't rely on it? saying "yeh baker/martin is diff check, anyway lets vote the lhf" is so wildly misplaced... what's your actual read on me?

Aye, would it feel better if I advised 'your slot missed 3 votes?' Delta's slot has a vote, Garebare voted d1, Delta voted d3. This was also strictly an objective look at VCA alone. I'm not relying asolely upon it as I feel that is what you are implying. It is valuable information and would be silly to not utilize everything we have regardless of how sparce.

You're slot is relatively wolfy as I'm reviewing now. Abi had some early 'obv town reads' that seem relatively simple TMI and not much past it. The only not W/W pairing from what I can tell on your slot from Abi is from Scotty voting the slot early currently. There's also some interactions with Baker and Martin, but those feel more inconclusive towards removing w/w pairings. Delta's interaction's with you are concerning and somewhat awkward as I've pointed out. MR before death advised that your slot needs more scrutiny, along Delta/Martin. Abi also seemed to point 'I can't get a grasp on Robyn and LC' earlier one we know is town and one we know was read to be town by dead town (MR). Lastly as I review Abi's slot, I do think it's easier to read:

I feel like I've done more than enough today for "I think we all think Abigail is scummy" to become "Abigail is readable actually" and yanno the only explanation I've got for scumminess is activity and that I was a CW

Which is asanine the wagons were T v T

as wolfy frustration as opposed to townie frustration. If this was towny frustration, I'd think Abi would've proceeded to iron out the towncore and move from players wanting to 'yeet the slot because cw' and that didn't happen.

Omgus-ish now as it involves your interactions with me directly, I've put so much content into the thread, it really feels like you are using a relatively simple means to decide to vote for me or not. If my interaction's with Baker fypov aren't conclusive on my alignment, where is reading into the other interaction's I have with other players?

yes it would make me feel better lol. and I'm not saying to throw it out entirely *if you feel like you can get something useful from it* but half the post was complaining about how useless using vca felt. so then why use it? I get now that you feel like it has *something* to offer, so do your thing.

I really can't attest to what abbi did or did not do. what delta interactions have you mentioned? don't think I saw them.

and I don't know how you can feel that I'm like, interacting with you in a bad faith type of way. I haven't seen you talk with anyone today passed like, me and martin and scotty maybe? that's mostly who has been around when I have. I really don't have it in me to back read or anything like that so i'm using what I have live here today to solve, and I have done nothing but raise concerns I have with points you have made and given you the benefit of the doubt each and every time to make sure i'm not confbiasing my focus on you because you've been one of the few people here in thread with me to engage with (ergo i'm looking at you more) and my general discomfort in trusting myself to read you. I already said you're most likely not where i'm looking today as it is, so what you're accusing me of is incorrect/ an overreaction

[Porscha]

but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

you mean 'our wincon?'

ew wilgy stop doing this lol martin's post already gave me the ick as it was

[Stick]

Bakerrrrr come back

[Stick]

also I said stick to PoE smh put them tinfoils away

[Porscha]

also I said stick to PoE smh put them tinfoils away

Ok which 4 poe are we working with

[Porscha]

Im getting lost in the sauce

[robyn]

apologies for being inactive, something came up in my irl

[baker]

Bakerrrrr come back

hey whats cookin

[baker]

I am sorry the lack of activity. I am traveling so it is hard to contribute and i feel quite shamed to be here.

[Stick]

hai, if you vote me out today i will win with the mafia and the game will end so you need to get a mafia today

[baker]

Here are some quick reads:

I think Wilgy would be my next scumread. Wilgy has been scumreading me for 3 days and hasn't really made any developments. They had voted awfully outside of "baker" I am actually surprised nobody ever questioned baker/wilgy theatre here, I am thinking we can find a lot of information from a Wilgy flip. There is also a good chance of hitting a wolf anyway

I don't know who else really STICKs out. I see we have new people in town, so imma let you guys vote the scum, I will sheep.

[baker]

[unvote][/unvote]

[baker]

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

[baker]

I was paranoid of robyn for a good while d1/d2 but I have found some posts where they are more likely to come from town

Porscha seems to be tryharding which is probably town

Don't like Scotty shading me earlier, similar vibes to d1 I also think scotty could be teamed with Wilgy

Delta is hell to read. Martin did trend down for me since yesterday

[baker]

I am usually right on 2 of my scumreads on lylo and end up townreading the third one. Its not a perfect world but this is what I have^

[baker]

what i deep down believe is the world with porscha/robyn/stick I know this might sound wild, very slim chances to happen, but I always expect the worst so dont look at me for going at stick today

[Scotty]

Here are some quick reads:

I think Wilgy would be my next scumread. Wilgy has been scumreading me for 3 days and hasn't really made any developments. They had voted awfully outside of "baker" I am actually surprised nobody ever questioned baker/wilgy theatre here, I am thinking we can find a lot of information from a Wilgy flip. There is also a good chance of hitting a wolf anyway

I don't know who else really STICKs out. I see we have new people in town, so imma let you guys vote the scum, I will sheep.

Bold strategy, cotton

The way you both have handled each other, while fakeable, reads as organic and not stilted (especially from wilgy).

This whole post is low key hilarious because it feels like it’s from the perspective that we’re not currently in lylo

[Scotty]

I was paranoid of robyn for a good while d1/d2 but I have found some posts where they are more likely to come from town

Porscha seems to be tryharding which is probably town

Don't like Scotty shading me earlier, similar vibes to d1 I also think scotty could be teamed with Wilgy

Delta is hell to read. Martin did trend down for me since yesterday

My dear pastry chef,

Do you automatically suspect anyone that suspects you?

Love,

Hunting dog

[Scotty]

Ok here’s the deal:

I’m not sure how much I’ll be around towards eod between work and shit and feel like we’re not even close to the same page.

Stick low key wants mafia to win here, so their vote can’t be counted on.

@robyn i don’t know what kind of stuff you’ve got going on, but I don’t know where you stand. The last post I saw said you could be recanting your town read on baker- anything specific? Who are the top 2 scum reads you would be willing to vote at this point in the game?

————————
I’m so conflicted because a part of me wants to lead the charge on baker, but I have no confidence. I feel in my heart there is a difference check between Wilgy/baker, and I just can’t shake that someone is playing slickly, but my hesitation comes from:

-wilgy’s gone from doom and gloom early phase to involved vote associations. And I feel that internally because he solves as much from flips as I do (and we only have 4 flips) to really trying to figure it out. I appreciate his solve and if he’s wolf then he’s giving a great adjustment here
-baker is an unknown from my standpoint and his approaches to suspicion reads extremely guilty, but based on Martin’s meta read, which I believe has to have a modicum of honesty to it regardless of Martin’s alignment, I have to at least take into account the playstyle could just be how he plays. I feel like we jumped on DM for far less.

So here I am, trying to choose between them. But if no one else but Wilgy is seeing what I’m seeing, then I have no earthly idea.

[Scotty]

[VOTE: Delta] aubergine I feel like regardless of how I feel on the big talkers, maybe the safest vote today is you.

Why?

Idk, puritan country, let’s ride

[Scotty]

Might I add- there have only been 3 votes all phase. From a mafia standpoint, they probably are fine surveying the field here, and can just pile on whoever they want.

Wilgy has had the highest vote total for the longest at 2- me and Robyn.

Baker has been sitting on stick, and has sort of tried to justify that he thinks stick is just one of the mafia? I guess?

I’ve been flitting around like a fucking jack russell

Delta has disappeared after being active early, and I think that’s a bad sign.

[Porscha]

Here are some quick reads:

I think Wilgy would be my next scumread. Wilgy has been scumreading me for 3 days and hasn't really made any developments. They had voted awfully outside of "baker" I am actually surprised nobody ever questioned baker/wilgy theatre here, I am thinking we can find a lot of information from a Wilgy flip. There is also a good chance of hitting a wolf anyway

I don't know who else really STICKs out. I see we have new people in town, so imma let you guys vote the scum, I will sheep.

wilgy kinda just omgus'd me after I said there is a possible world where you are w/w with him and accused me of looking for reasons to vote him when I said I wouldn't vote him today before you flipped and scotty slapped my hand for not reading your guys previous interactions cuz he thinks its like. not theater at all. did you read those posts and did they play into the wilgy suspicion you are bringing up now?

I also don't think it's beneficial to keep stick in the poe, personally. targeting a claimed 3p in lylo is undoubtedly a risky piss poor play to make even if you are tinfoiling she is a wolf lol

[Porscha]

pretty funny of baker to come in here and be play an uno reverse card on wilgy cuz now I don't really believe in the w/w world of them either lol. just think there is no way they are w/w and baker comes in to specifically bring it up and throw shade at wilgy. but we'll see if it only ends up being shade