Death Note Mafia [END]

[Epignosis]

I am really a winner today.

In other words:

There is an 88% chance Russ was right about FZ.

[Turnip Head]

Okay, so there's a 50% chance that Russ got FZ's role right. In this case, FZ is Kira.

There is a 50% chance that Russ got FZ's role wrong. If this happened, there is a 24% chance that the incorrect result he got was Kira.

But it's still 50-50 as to whether his check was accurate... right?

[Matahari]

Doing some reading of people I haven't spent much time on today. A few things are popping out about Mata:

FZ- I read the posts about Llama, and you came right to the point. He hasn't been killed yet, which made me laugh. I don't really trust Llama and I could see a vote for him. I also trust ppl who are susp of MM, and I could vote there as well. Made and TH are ppl I have voted because I couldn't understand their behavior. I was wrong about them, but still, it was my reason, and I can do that again. But there is still time, I'd rather my vote counted for something, so I'll wait a bit longer.

The claim of "not understanding" seems evasive, as it avoids taking responsibility for stating why the target's actions have been suspicious.

I have flip-flopped a bit on FZ for various reasons, and was ready to go ahead and vote for her today, until Epi posted this. I disagree with most of his comments here. They smack of old-school baddie.

If you've independently judged someone as bad, I don't think that should change because someone you also think is bad makes an attack on that person. Especially in a game like this, where baddies don't have default BTSC.

There's also a very ambivalent attitude to gut feelings. For example, this was posted regarding last lynch:

And- I'm not ready to vote Llama or Epig yet, because I want to have something to more to present than 'feels'.

But this was posted as the rationale for joining the Snowman lynch:

I will vote Snowman, because I still think that Zombarellas case is coming from an inexperienced place. Maybe I'm basing my decision on what I have done in the past, but when I went hard against someone with just a gut feeling during my first year of playing, I was right.

Selective reading or selective quoting? If you read all my posts, you wouldn't have needed to pull any of these. Sounds like you were cherry-picking to suit your own recipe

[Epignosis]

Okay, so there's a 50% chance that Russ got FZ's role right. In this case, FZ is Kira.

There is a 50% chance that Russ got FZ's role wrong. If this happened, there is a 24% chance that the incorrect result he got was Kira.

But it's still 50-50 as to whether his check was accurate... right?

Correct.

[juliets]

guys, let me just review my rl while in this game. It's all in the thread but not all in one place. I started out out of town. Then, I got very ill for two weeks, then I had a death in the family. Through it all I have tried to keep up and post regularly but there are bound to be some times when I posted irregularly or not at great length. Still, I managed to stay ahead of other posters but not nearly in line with those who post hundreds of posts. I will never be that player, I just don't post like that. I had 161 posts in GOC where I was a civ and won and that game ended somewhere around night 13. Here I have 144 and its day 8. I'm posting at my normal rate.

You're Yotsuba. No shame in it.

What do you think of those numbers?

Epi your numbers sound good to me and I'll add it to the info I'm considering about FZ. I'll have to read it again in the morning to make sure i understand what you did.

[thellama73]

Guys I have a question.


Can we please lynch FZ next?

[Turnip Head]

Guys I have a question.


Can we please lynch FZ next?

If I voted for FZ to be lynched next, it would only be because I want to ultimately get to the bottom of this, and because I think this is preventing us from discussing other worthwhile topics, and because Epi's numbers seem convincing, not because I genuinely suspect her. That's a horrible way to rationalize it, but it's true. My only comfort is the fact that if you and Epi are wrong about FZ and she's a detective, she can still win with us from beyond the grave if we can manage to catch some Kiras. But that is very little comfort because I enjoy playing with FZ. I'll have to give it a lot of thought, and of course I'd love to hear from FZ again. I'd also like to hear what FZ thinks about Matahari.

[Epignosis]

Guys I have a question.


Can we please lynch FZ next?

If I voted for FZ to be lynched next, it would only be because I want to ultimately get to the bottom of this, and because I think this is preventing us from discussing other worthwhile topics, and because Epi's numbers seem convincing, not because I genuinely suspect her. That's a horrible way to rationalize it, but it's true. My only comfort is the fact that if you and Epi are wrong about FZ and she's a detective, she can still win with us from beyond the grave if we can manage to catch some Kiras. But that is very little comfort because I enjoy playing with FZ. I'll have to give it a lot of thought, and of course I'd love to hear from FZ again. I'd also like to hear what FZ thinks about Matahari.

I assume you like playing with me, but you'll vote me out ten times over if you can.

[Turnip Head]

If I think you're bad, then most definitely

[Epignosis]

If I think you're bad, then most definitely

Good, Shinigami.

I'll let you sleep on this. I don't trust you for shit, but this time- this one time, I may need your help.

[FZ.]

RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

[FZ.]

I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

[FZ.]

baddies' tactics are to push players really hard*

[Turnip Head]

RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

...

...

...damnit FZ, that's your defense?!

...Like half the Kiras will survive a lynch

[Turnip Head]

[FZ.]

RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

...

...

...damnit FZ, that's your defense?!

...Like half the Kiras will survive a lynch

Look, I didn't want to do this up until this point, because I didn't want to narrow it down for the baddies, but I'm left with no choice because if what we're going to base our decisions is Russ' vote, then I'm going to give you the logic I have. I could have let you all lynch me many times, and it would have been a waste of time. Like I said, I was trying to be vague.

So, if we agree that if Russ got me role checked and got a baddie role, his vote would depend on whether that role could be lynched or not. If he got an unlynchable role, he'd say he thinks I'm bad, but he doesn't think I should be voted. The only way he'd vote me is if actually got Mikami or whatever baddie role that can be lynched. If he actually got one of those roles, it makes the likelihood of him being wrong a mere 5%, which should really encourage you to vote for me. But if I am not lynched, I want you all to throw that probability crap out the window and realize that either Russ didn't check me and decided to follow Epi's long long case on me, or he got the wrong results, and you go back to judging me based on my game.

And with that, if the baddies kill me at night, it's on the conscience of those not even trying to listen to me

[Boomslang]

Selective reading or selective quoting? If you read all my posts, you wouldn't have needed to pull any of these. Sounds like you were cherry-picking to suit your own recipe

Mata, that's a lame defense. This game is about finding hints and patterns in large quantities of otherwise useless information. The way one contributes to the game, or at least the way I contribute to the game, is by pulling out those suspicious moments and indicating why I feel they are suspicious. Yes, it's selective. Because without selection, there'd be no judgment, and without judgment, we'd all be randomly voting every lynch.

[thellama73]

RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

...

...

...damnit FZ, that's your defense?!

...Like half the Kiras will survive a lynch

Look, I didn't want to do this up until this point, because I didn't want to narrow it down for the baddies, but I'm left with no choice because if what we're going to base our decisions is Russ' vote, then I'm going to give you the logic I have. I could have let you all lynch me many times, and it would have been a waste of time. Like I said, I was trying to be vague.

So, if we agree that if Russ got me role checked and got a baddie role, his vote would depend on whether that role could be lynched or not. If he got an unlynchable role, he'd say he thinks I'm bad, but he doesn't think I should be voted. The only way he'd vote me is if actually got Mikami or whatever baddie role that can be lynched. If he actually got one of those roles, it makes the likelihood of him being wrong a mere 5%, which should really encourage you to vote for me. But if I am not lynched, I want you all to throw that probability crap out the window and realize that either Russ didn't check me and decided to follow Epi's long long case on me, or he got the wrong results, and you go back to judging me based on my game.

And with that, if the baddies kill me at night, it's on the conscience of those not even trying to listen to me

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role. No way. This smacks of desperation.

[FZ.]

RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

...

...

...damnit FZ, that's your defense?!

...Like half the Kiras will survive a lynch

Look, I didn't want to do this up until this point, because I didn't want to narrow it down for the baddies, but I'm left with no choice because if what we're going to base our decisions is Russ' vote, then I'm going to give you the logic I have. I could have let you all lynch me many times, and it would have been a waste of time. Like I said, I was trying to be vague.

So, if we agree that if Russ got me role checked and got a baddie role, his vote would depend on whether that role could be lynched or not. If he got an unlynchable role, he'd say he thinks I'm bad, but he doesn't think I should be voted. The only way he'd vote me is if actually got Mikami or whatever baddie role that can be lynched. If he actually got one of those roles, it makes the likelihood of him being wrong a mere 5%, which should really encourage you to vote for me. But if I am not lynched, I want you all to throw that probability crap out the window and realize that either Russ didn't check me and decided to follow Epi's long long case on me, or he got the wrong results, and you go back to judging me based on my game.

And with that, if the baddies kill me at night, it's on the conscience of those not even trying to listen to me

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role. No way. This smacks of desperation.

Go ahead and lynch me. I've outed myself with this, so I no longer care. I was trying to avoid this as long as I could, and that's why I didn't want to get lynched- because I didn't want anyone to find out about it and narrow roles down. I was also trying to avoid wasting a lynch, unlike some people here. Since it's now out in the open, be my guest. I'm sick of trying to defend myself without being heard

[zeek]

This game is baffling to me.

[Ricochet]

I'll have to chime in bit by bit, to every topic, because this afternoon I have to do test preparations and I'll be home late this evening and won't be spending as much time online as usual afterwards either.

Not sure I like Bass's response to boo.
Bass stated his top two suspects and players he'd vote for today are TH and MM.
He says he knows (?) their roles are "non-Kiras that can survive", but still doesn't see why they shouldn't be voted again.

If he claims TH and MM are unlynchable non-Kiras, then we have the following options:
- TH and/or MM are Shinigami. They cannot be lynched at all, only outed upon a second vote.
- TH and/or MM are Near/Mello. They cannot be lynched until L dies.

Judging by this, any result from lynching TH and MM again will result in another no lynch (with or without an outing) aka the least effective lynch result possible for the detectives.

So my questions are:
Why did Bass exclude the variants that TH and MM might be unlynchable Kiras (Light or Misa if they give up DN ownership under lynch pressure, or Higuchi), and
If Bass thinks TH and MM are unlynchable non-Kiras, why does he think a non-lynch result is the best option to go with

Bass also stated Llama as his third suspect and player to vote for (not more important than TH/MM, though), but I think his reasoning is too meta. "Llama pose a question I myself pose in a previous game where the answer was Llama, so what if / maybe / perhaps / etc. Llama pose himself a smokescreen question with the answer being again himself".

---

Boo, what do you make of bea getting killed? Don't think I've seen a reaction to it from you. You were pretty adamant in your belief that she is Light. I know you are currently searching for a potential Mikami / Symphatizer, but how does this kill change your beliefs in who Light might be.

---

I really have to ponder the most on Epig's numbers and FZ's rebuttal, but picking up some of her ideas from the latter:
"So, if we agree that if Russ got me role checked and got a baddie role, his vote would depend on whether that role could be lynched or not." I suppose this could be true.
"If he got an unlynchable role, he'd say he thinks I'm bad, but he doesn't think I should be voted." I suppose this could be true.
"The only way he'd vote me is if actually got Mikami or whatever baddie role that can be lynched." Here's where I'm not so sure. If we agree Light/Misa would relinquish their DN under lynch pressure and become temporarily unlynchable, are you suggesting we shouldn't even attempt to lynch them because it would be pointless? Why? And what other "baddie role that can be lynched" is there, besides Mikami?

My ideas are the following:
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that can't be lynched at all right now (Higuchi, Ryuk, Rem) or Sidoh, he may have indeed tried to suggest we pursue another lynch.
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that can be lynched (Mikami), he would have 100% suggested we pursue lynching you.
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that might fail to be lynched right now (Light, Misa), he might have still suggested we pursue lynching you.

Unfortunately there are secrets to Mogi's role that have yet not been deciphered, as to make perhaps more sense of his tactics.

---

linki: Llama, if you think there's no way she's an unlynchable player, do you think she's Mikami? If not, would you still vote to lynch her?

linki: FZ, you've outed yourself as an unlynchable or as a certain role?

Each topic free to snip.

[Turnip Head]

Rico, in regards to what Bass said about me and MM, this is what he actually said:

The reason for the top two is because of them surviving the lynches. I know their are roles that aren't kiras that can survive but why should we just give them a free pass because of that.

So, a little different than what you said he said. But an important difference.

[Epignosis]

Before I respond further, I am going to reread all of FZ.'s posts in light of this...revelation.

But "probability crap." That's good.

[Ricochet]

Rico, in regards to what Bass said about me and MM, this is what he actually said:

The reason for the top two is because of them surviving the lynches. I know their are roles that aren't kiras that can survive but why should we just give them a free pass because of that.

So, a little different than what you said he said. But an important difference.

Is it? I thought I did reference that he believes you are unlynchanble non-Kiras and based my questioning starting from that.

[Turnip Head]

Rico, in regards to what Bass said about me and MM, this is what he actually said:

The reason for the top two is because of them surviving the lynches. I know their are roles that aren't kiras that can survive but why should we just give them a free pass because of that.

So, a little different than what you said he said. But an important difference.

Is it? I thought I did reference that he believes you are unlynchanble non-Kiras and based my questioning starting from that.

But I don't think that's what he's saying...

[Turnip Head]

Maybe helps if you correct his grammatical error of "their" to "there" though, now that I think about it.

[Ricochet]

Hmm... true.

Sorry about all that in that case.

Man, my readings here don't look encouraging for the Reading part of my test on Saturday.

[FZ.]

Rico, I've said enough. Take from it whatever you want.

TH, I want to know what you think of my explanation

Before I respond further, I am going to reread all of FZ.'s posts in light of this...revelation.

But "probability crap." That's good.

You're right, it's not crap, and I guess if I were in your shoes I'd give it some credit, which is why I decided to come forward with what I have. It's crap to me since I know I'm good, but yeah...

[thellama73]

linki: Llama, if you think there's no way she's an unlynchable player, do you think she's Mikami? If not, would you still vote to lynch her?

I don't have a certain role in mind for her, but I don't think she would be defending so hard if she were Mello or Near or a Shinigami. I think she is scared, and I think she is bad.

[Turnip Head]

TH, I want to know what you think of my explanation

I want to know what I think of it too

I intend to do the same thing as Epi, but won't have time to read through your posts until later today when I get off work. You really threw me for a loop with this one.

[Ricochet]

linki: Llama, if you think there's no way she's an unlynchable player, do you think she's Mikami? If not, would you still vote to lynch her?

I don't have a certain role in mind for her, but I don't think she would be defending so hard if she were Mello or Near or a Shinigami. I think she is scared, and I think she is bad.

But that's not exactly what you said

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role. No way. This smacks of desperation.

Yet from your post above, you're limiting "unlynchable roles" to just Near/Mello and Shinigamis. Do you think a lynch for Misa or Light will go through, right now? Do you believe Higuchi currently has the DN and therefore can be lynched?

[Turnip Head]

In the meantime FZ, I'd like to know who you're considering for this lynch.

[FZ.]

In the meantime FZ, I'd like to know who you're considering for this lynch.

Don't know. If L says llama has only 10% chance of being Kira, is that on a specific Kira (light) or does it mean he only has 10% chance of being bad? Because the way he's going now seems like he's the one scared, not me. I am more than willing to get lynched, but I think it's a waste of time.

I need to think about the others brought to the table, but I have to run. I'll be back

[thellama73]

linki: Llama, if you think there's no way she's an unlynchable player, do you think she's Mikami? If not, would you still vote to lynch her?

I don't have a certain role in mind for her, but I don't think she would be defending so hard if she were Mello or Near or a Shinigami. I think she is scared, and I think she is bad.

But that's not exactly what you said

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role. No way. This smacks of desperation.

Yet from your post above, you're limiting "unlynchable roles" to just Near/Mello and Shinigamis. Do you think a lynch for Misa or Light will go through, right now? Do you believe Higuchi currently has the DN and therefore can be lynched?

That's not exactly what I said at all. She was hinting at an unlynchable role. I do not think she has an unlynchable role, like Near or Mello or a Shinigami. I don't know whether a lynch of Light or Misa would go through, but I think a player with such a role would be more afraid of being lynched and found out than a civ or Shinigami.

[Turnip Head]

I started rereading FZ on the train, and guys... I just really don't think she's bad. I'm only at her posts from Day 2 so far, but every single post strikes me as the genuine civ FZ mindset. In fact, if she has a hard to kill detective role, her play makes even more sense to me, because usually she's dead by now for being so talkative and thoughtful.

I'm sorry Epi, I'm just not seeing it.

[Ricochet]

Can anyone else makes sense of what Llama said? These are the revelant parts from his initial and subsequent statements.

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role

I don't think she would be defending so hard if she were Mello or Near or a Shinigami.

She was hinting at an unlynchable role. I do not think she has an unlynchable role, like Near or Mello or a Shinigami.

The initial statement made me believe he's excluding FZ. from being any unlynchable role whatsoever. Prompting me to ask him if he thinks she's a bad role that can be lynched (most obvious example being Mikami).

In the second statement, however, he's excluding FZ. just from possibly being one of two detectives or one of the Shinigamis.

In the third statement he apparently states only two detectives and the entire class of Shinigami qualify as unlynchable roles for him. Both the second and third statements prompting me to inquire what about Higuchi and what his theory of the possible current outcome of lynching Light and/or Misa might be.

I don't know whether a lynch of Light or Misa would go through, but I think a player with such a role would be more afraid of being lynched and found out than a civ or Shinigami.

This part I understand better and could agree with.

[Turnip Head]

I have no idea about Llama, Rico. He seems to have his heart set on FZ being bad, and I don't think anything that happens short of FZ's role being revealed as civ will change his opinion about that.

[thellama73]

Can anyone else makes sense of what Llama said? These are the revelant parts from his initial and subsequent statements.

There's no way you would be defending yourself this hard if you had an unlynchable role

I don't think she would be defending so hard if she were Mello or Near or a Shinigami.

She was hinting at an unlynchable role. I do not think she has an unlynchable role, like Near or Mello or a Shinigami.

The initial statement made me believe he's excluding FZ. from being any unlynchable role whatsoever. Prompting me to ask him if he thinks she's a bad role that can be lynched (most obvious example being Mikami).

In the second statement, however, he's excluding FZ. just from possibly being one of two detectives or one of the Shinigamis.

In the third statement he apparently states only two detectives and the entire class of Shinigami qualify as unlynchable roles for him. Both the second and third statements prompting me to inquire what about Higuchi and what his theory of the possible current outcome of lynching Light and/or Misa might be.

I don't know whether a lynch of Light or Misa would go through, but I think a player with such a role would be more afraid of being lynched and found out than a civ or Shinigami.

This part I understand better and could agree with.

Light and Misa are not unlynchable roles. They are conditionally lynchable. Stop deliberately misunderstanding me.

[Matahari]

Boom, it still seems like you cherry-picked to support your own agenda, but I will go ahead and respond to each point in case you were serious.

Doing some reading of people I haven't spent much time on today. A few things are popping out about Mata:

FZ- I read the posts about Llama, and you came right to the point. He hasn't been killed yet, which made me laugh. I don't really trust Llama and I could see a vote for him. I also trust ppl who are susp of MM, and I could vote there as well. Made and TH are ppl I have voted because I couldn't understand their behavior. I was wrong about them, but still, it was my reason, and I can do that again. But there is still time, I'd rather my vote counted for something, so I'll wait a bit longer.

The claim of "not understanding" seems evasive, as it avoids taking responsibility for stating why the target's actions have been suspicious.

'not understanding their behavior' was a sum-up of why I voted certain players. When I vote, I give the reason at the time or sometime during the day of the vote. Each player that I voted for 'off' behavior was mentioned before each vote. If someone gives flip answers, or doesn't show up for discussion for several days, I find it off. I also don't understand it. But it's a great way to throw ppl off as in "I obviously don't care if you vote me, so overlook me please" But again, I explained my reason each time, and the post you pulled was just a sum-up of the different votes I made. I saw no reason to relist each one and re-explain why again.

I have flip-flopped a bit on FZ for various reasons, and was ready to go ahead and vote for her today, until Epi posted this. I disagree with most of his comments here. They smack of old-school baddie.

If you've independently judged someone as bad, I don't think that should change because someone you also think is bad makes an attack on that person. Especially in a game like this, where baddies don't have default BTSC.

When I have reason to think there is a slight possibility that someone is a very important civ, I will not discuss that in thread. There is no call for putting a target on someone. While FZ had appeared to be a little shady to me at times during the game, there was also an issue that made me see a slim chance that she could be a very self-protective civ. When Epi made his first big case on her, I thought it was straight up his honest opinion, and I began to trust him just a bit more, and to believe that he was probably right. Then he did the (what I perceived) overkill post on her, which I saw as not sounding honest. If you need me to explain why I saw it as dishonest, I will in a separate post, just say the word. LSS- FZ's posts today are weird, I don't get what she's getting at, and unless other peoples posts help me understand it better, I'll be voting her. If its a trick of some kind, and ppl decide it would be bad to vote her, please say in the thread, because I'm not getting it. I have flip-flopped several times about FZ, due to something not discussable, but I believe I'm past the obstacle.

There's also a very ambivalent attitude to gut feelings. For example, this was posted regarding last lynch:

And- I'm not ready to vote Llama or Epig yet, because I want to have something to more to present than 'feels'.

But this was posted as the rationale for joining the Snowman lynch:

I will vote Snowman, because I still think that Zombarellas case is coming from an inexperienced place. Maybe I'm basing my decision on what I have done in the past, but when I went hard against someone with just a gut feeling during my first year of playing, I was right.

We haven't played together much. I'm primarily a gut based player, and when I play back to back games with the same group of ppl, I actually have pretty good luck at pegging good vs bad. That got a bit boring though, so I started taking breaks between games (usually about 3 months), because when I'd play again, it would be like being new. My last break was almost 8 months- I really feel like a fish out of water. I have feels about players, but I'm not rushing to judgement because I am fairly unsure of myself and whether I would be right. As for the Snowman lynch, the bold part above is important. During my first year, I didn't know how to handle info. I'd just blurt out an accusation and ask ppl to trust me because I knew I was right. Eventually I got the hang of the info role, but in this game, I thought I might be seeing that in Zombarella. Hope this explains better, but if not, we'll try again.

[Black Rock]

I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.

I feel the same way but FZ is very convincing. Her latest posts seem to mean something. I didn't really get it but I think the gist was she is civvie.

[juliets]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who didn't get it.

[Boomslang]

I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

In addition to Epi's numerical analysis, which is pretty strong in my opinion, this quote really calls FZ into question. I interpret this as saying that vigorous investigation should be regarded as baddie behavior, and thus discouraged. But if people don't push with cases and gather defenses from suspects, what do we have to go on for lynches? The civ cause would be hindered, and the baddie cause would be strengthened.

[FZ.]

I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

In addition to Epi's numerical analysis, which is pretty strong in my opinion, this quote really calls FZ into question. I interpret this as saying that vigorous investigation should be regarded as baddie behavior, and thus discouraged. But if people don't push with cases and gather defenses from suspects, what do we have to go on for lynches? The civ cause would be hindered, and the baddie cause would be strengthened.

Like I said, the numerical thing is strong, especially if you assume as you should that Russ wouldn't have voted for a wasted lynch. A role check that ended up in a vote means that he got one of very few roles. The probability of him getting that and being wrong is about 5%. So in my opinion, either he didn't check me, or his outcome did fall in those lousy 5%. You can vote for me and waste that lynch just to prove to you that he if he did get a lynchable baddie role for me, it was wrong. I would understand it, but I'm telling you'll be wasting that vote. Don't take my word for it, I'm fine with it. Just keep in mind that we haven't lynched in a while and the baddies are killing us.

Even if I don't trust llama, the only reason for me to come out with what I'm saying is either he's right and I'm bad and am using whatever I can to prevent this lynch. Or, I'm actually telling the truth and I didn't talk about wasting this lynch because I really didn't want it out in the open for later in the game. You choose to take the former, you'll be proven wrong, but it's your call

[Turnip Head]

I didn't interpret FZs post the same way you did Boom but I can see how you arrived at that conclusion. That's the one post from FZ that's a little questionable IMO. However, if she has a role such as one she's hinting at, her concerns in that post could be warranted. What I can't figure out is if she actually accusing Epi and Llama of something or if she's just throwing it out there for us to ponder ourselves, because she named no names... If her intention was the latter, it doesn't feel genuine. But I haven't made my mind up there yet. Further clarification from FZ might be needed on that specific point.

But BR and juliets... what exactly do you guys not get? I'm confused by your confusion... What FZ said seemed very clear to me.

[DharmaHelper]

Voted for Black Rock.

Shocking. You are very stubborn man. I thought I gave you enough to slap you in the face. Obviously you're more of the type that needs it spelled out for you. Too bad it's against the rules.

Bea, is there a good reason besides you want to prove yourself?

nope. no good reason at all to vote me unless you think I am lying. I'm totes doing this to prove a point.

I'm trying to lay this to rest once and for all. And I'm willing to die to do it.

If you don't believe that what I've said or how I've played in this game is true and working to trying to help the detectives win then please vote me.

I gave you a new reason to vote me too - I voted myself. I know I'm a detective so clearly I'm working to not further the dective's win but to prove to boo he's flat out wrong about me. And if he's flat out wrong about me, he should see my role and think about why I have been skectched out by his going after the people he has.

I am in the midst of a catch up to reboot my thought process, but I felt I needed to comment at least on this post, specifically the underlined portion. I realize my thoughts on this may be a little dated given that bea has been NK'ed and such, but something on my chest that I really feel I need to speak on before moving forward.

If I'm being honest, I have not had as enjoyable an experience this game as I would have liked. There have been a number of things that have happened to me this game that I just feel really shitty about. But, I recognize that if I want to win I'm going to have to put those things aside and do my very sincere best in order to help the civvie cause. And stuff like this is what irks me.

I guess what I'm saying is that I disagree with this approach (and to be clear, not just bea). The detectives only have so many advantages, and one of them is numbers. Giving up just to prove a point is rather selfish, and counterproductive.

Although it did lead to some very interesting reactions from people (MM, for one) that I am in the process of looking over.

In summary, I know I'd feel a lot better if I didn't have to read six or seven "fuck it fuck you fuck me lynch me" posts every page during my read throughs :P

[DharmaHelper]

Also while I'm here, Epi can I get some clarification from you:

According to your numbers, you think Russ got a bad read on FZ, hence why he voted for her, and you came to the conclusion that there was only a 24% chance this read was a bad read *AND* a wrong read? (Meaning the odds were better that it was a bad read and a correct read?)

[Epignosis]

By "bad read" do you mean "Mafia read?"

[DharmaHelper]

By "bad read" do you mean "Mafia read?"

Yes, sorry. Bad, baddie, mafia. :P

[Marmot]

Voted for Black Rock.

Shocking. You are very stubborn man. I thought I gave you enough to slap you in the face. Obviously you're more of the type that needs it spelled out for you. Too bad it's against the rules.

Bea, is there a good reason besides you want to prove yourself?

nope. no good reason at all to vote me unless you think I am lying. I'm totes doing this to prove a point.

I'm trying to lay this to rest once and for all. And I'm willing to die to do it.

If you don't believe that what I've said or how I've played in this game is true and working to trying to help the detectives win then please vote me.

I gave you a new reason to vote me too - I voted myself. I know I'm a detective so clearly I'm working to not further the dective's win but to prove to boo he's flat out wrong about me. And if he's flat out wrong about me, he should see my role and think about why I have been skectched out by his going after the people he has.

I am in the midst of a catch up to reboot my thought process, but I felt I needed to comment at least on this post, specifically the underlined portion. I realize my thoughts on this may be a little dated given that bea has been NK'ed and such, but something on my chest that I really feel I need to speak on before moving forward.

If I'm being honest, I have not had as enjoyable an experience this game as I would have liked. There have been a number of things that have happened to me this game that I just feel really shitty about. But, I recognize that if I want to win I'm going to have to put those things aside and do my very sincere best in order to help the civvie cause. And stuff like this is what irks me.

I guess what I'm saying is that I disagree with this approach (and to be clear, not just bea). The detectives only have so many advantages, and one of them is numbers. Giving up just to prove a point is rather selfish, and counterproductive.

Although it did lead to some very interesting reactions from people (MM, for one) that I am in the process of looking over.

In summary, I know I'd feel a lot better if I didn't have to read six or seven "fuck it fuck you fuck me lynch me" posts every page during my read throughs :P

What reaction might you be talking about?

[DharmaHelper]

Self-voting is a risky behavior and not recommended when playing mafia, because the goal is to lynch baddies. Since you have insight on your own role, you must know you are a baddie, so I will totes mcgoats go along with your vote bea.

This ridiculous justification for example. The mafia equivalent of doctor assisted suicide.