Death Note Mafia [END]

[Spacedaisy]

Here is my dilemma. I don't trust Epi. I don't think he is kira (or at least not an active one), but I don't think he is working for the detectives. I think he has his own agenda. However, I also think he really and truly believes he is right about FZ. He might not be, but he believes he is. And while his math seems sound, it's based on some assumptions. And until now, I have dismissed it because you feel really genuine. But the thing is FZ, when you claimed an unlynchable role, it looks like a preemptive strike. Like you are trying to hold onto a death note as long as you can. As if you can give it up and be unlynchable for a few days I would bet, but you don't want to have to.

Mata, what troubles me with you is two fold. You have listed some people in the past as your trusted players. it feels an awful lot like buddying up. Additionally you lately mentioned something that can't be discussed and I was looking at the roles to see what I thought of this statement. I don't know how I feel about it. And you fit the profile of what I believe a Misa or Mikami player might do. Blendy, not too many posts, but not too few.

I could see placing my vote on either of these two today. I will have to decide before I go to work tomorrow afternoon. I'll read some tomorrow morning and see where I land, there are a couple others I want to read up on because I'm not sure how I feel, but they are secondary. We will see how much time I have tomorrow.

[FZ.]

Here is my dilemma. I don't trust Epi. I don't think he is kira (or at least not an active one), but I don't think he is working for the detectives. I think he has his own agenda. However, I also think he really and truly believes he is right about FZ. He might not be, but he believes he is. And while his math seems sound, it's based on some assumptions. And until now, I have dismissed it because you feel really genuine. But the thing is FZ, when you claimed an unlynchable role, it looks like a preemptive strike. Like you are trying to hold onto a death note as long as you can. As if you can give it up and be unlynchable for a few days I would bet, but you don't want to have to.

Mata, what troubles me with you is two fold. You have listed some people in the past as your trusted players. it feels an awful lot like buddying up. Additionally you lately mentioned something that can't be discussed and I was looking at the roles to see what I thought of this statement. I don't know how I feel about it. And you fit the profile of what I believe a Misa or Mikami player might do. Blendy, not too many posts, but not too few.

I could see placing my vote on either of these two today. I will have to decide before I go to work tomorrow afternoon. I'll read some tomorrow morning and see where I land, there are a couple others I want to read up on because I'm not sure how I feel, but they are secondary. We will see how much time I have tomorrow.

I get how it might look, but I have explained why I've held on to it until now. I'm fine with people lynching me if it helps in any way. I don't have a DN, nor have I ever had or at a potential to get it in the future. I think it's a wasted vote, but really, what else can I do?

[Ricochet]

TH, I believe that the problem with you trying to narrow suspects for being "naive about MM" and witholding things about the outcome of his lynch is that narrowing it is currently not easy. I think the pool in fact pretty much covers everybody. There was no dissuasion attempt from the MM lynch whatsoever - Epig and boo were the only ones to give a hindsight-ish opinion after the matter was consumed (and I pointed out in a previous post that Epig's thoughts were a bit fragmentary and also burried three-four Days ago to be so easily picked up on).

The pool even contains you, because I'm not sure why you proposed MM's lynch if you say the "behaviour similarities" between the two of you are so obvious. Were they obvious to you? If yes, why did you persuade players to waste a lynch on him? Nine players went with it based on your rather "traditional" reasoning on MM (him not making himself accountable for the suspects he brought up, not contributing etc.). I dismissed your case as not being quite enough for a "traditional" reasoning which to make me decide on MM rather than others, particularly FZ. I was clear on that in the first quote you point out. I was also clear I didn't have time left to re-read MM properly and that is simply because re-reading the case on FZ consumed too much of my time - there was llama's case, Epig's case, FZs. rebuttal, Epig's further case (the Russ angle), FZs rebuttals and so on. I rather focused on it entirely during that Day.

BTW, you imply "I think you are acting like an obvious Shinigami", but that is simply not true. I'd like to stress that I never once expressed that kind of certainty about you being specifically a Shinigami, the way Epig did. Even in that second quote you pulled, I say "in case...[you are] a brazen, untouchable Shinigami". That quote is from Day 4, before your lynch failed. I didn't express certainty about you being a Shinigami after the lynch, either. Right now, both you and MM are still part of a projection pool I have of, frankly, several roles, not exclusively Shinigami.

[A propos, Two Days earlier than D4, I was actually questioning (in reply to BWT's theory, I think) if you'd be a Shinigami, because I believed Shinigamis would try to get lynched/double-lynched later in the game (mainly because two of them are Team Light Shinigami, so the delay would work in the Symphatizers' favor) rather than intending to out themselves earlier.] That D4 quote is also part of a bigger post in which you left out that I agreed (with Llama) that both you and MM wanting to work more on puzzles rather then get back into lynching debates could a connecting factor. I just didn't build on that after the puzzle matter went cold. Oversight on my behalf.

The last quote you point out is from Day 5 and it does indeed put me in rather a bad light, since it comes after you and MM were the most similar in voting pattern throughout Days 3-4, but I would argue that I meant your early Day 5 vote more than your general early voting habits. You had just survived a lynch and had rushed to vote first, again! MM meanwhile broke the pattern (he voted sixth, which he now reveals was intentional to escape the "Snowman-mechanic" pattern). So your D5 vote aggravated right away how I felt about you specifically, in light of your lynch survival and your gameplay.

So keep me in mind, if you want, because I can't deny that I've done poorly to re-read MM and possibly find an obvious connection, ahead of his lynch, that he would be unlynchable, but I did not do any of that deliberately.

[Epignosis]

Atoms - Steve Walsh - Killed Night 1 by Richard Branson
Epignosis - Richard Branson - Killed Night 2 by Damo Suzuki

I killed Steve Walsh? Say it ain't so!

[Ricochet]

I'd also like to mention that DH's problems with Bass' reply to boo are pretty much the same I had, even if I tangled myself a bit in the wording / meaning of his post. I still can't tell much his genuine RL issues affected his performance here, but I already know from experience (Film) that even a low-poster Bass could potentially come with good (even right) reads. By comparison, the suspect list her gave here is really lackluster.

[juliets]

And now for my thoughts (I still need to finish catching up, but I'll do it later):

TH, you asked about my thoughts on Mata. The thing that made me consider maybe you're right, is the fact that up until this day, she said she was suspicious of me, but ended up voting elsewhere, and this day, when you'd expect her to actually ponder what I've said, is when she's more suspicious of me. It made me think that maybe when she though I was bad, she didn't want to lynch me, and when she's realizing I might be good, she's willing to vote for me because she doesn't need me.


Bass is definitely giving the most expected and easy suspicions, except for maybe llama, but I have no idea if his personal life has affected his game. At this point, he's giving nothing. He fits the sit back and let them all fight to the tee, so I can see myself voting there too. I would like him to comment truthfully about how much he's been invested in the game.

Rico seems very logical to me, but I'll have to reread him. I haven't been getting any bad vibes from him, but logical people can easily fool me.

Zeek seems okay to me. I don't think I agree with whoever called him out. I think it was Boo.

Juliets- I've never seen her as a baddie, but she always seems nice and considering all angles. I can see why she would rely on Epi's analysis, but I would like to hear more from her in terms of her own thoughts regarding other people.

FZ. i just got through a long post and lost it. I'm so irritated I'm not going to rewrite it now. I'll have some coffee and then maybe attempt it again.

[Epignosis]

juliets, how did you lose your post?

[juliets]

juliets, how did you lose your post?

my left hand hit something on the left hand side of the computer. the screen went back to the home page. i looked at the firefox pages and the page i was posting was gone. why do you ask?

[Epignosis]

juliets, how did you lose your post?

my left hand hit something on the left hand side of the computer. the screen went back to the home page. i looked at the firefox pages and the page i was posting was gone. why do you ask?

From my experience, the forum saves what you type even if you go back in your browser or close the window. If you can use your history to open the page in which you were typing, the content of your post should still be there.

[juliets]

juliets, how did you lose your post?

my left hand hit something on the left hand side of the computer. the screen went back to the home page. i looked at the firefox pages and the page i was posting was gone. why do you ask?

From my experience, the forum saves what you type even if you go back in your browser or close the window. If you can use your history to open the page in which you were typing, the content of your post should still be there.

OK I'll try that.

[juliets]

Well, firefox crashed and i can't find the page in history. It's ok, I'll just start over after i finish my coffee. I usually can find it if the page flips but for whatever reason not this time.

[thellama73]

Well, firefox crashed and i can't find the page in history. It's ok, I'll just start over after i finish my coffee. I usually can find it if the page flips but for whatever reason not this time.

Your... juliets coffee?

[juliets]

Well, firefox crashed and i can't find the page in history. It's ok, I'll just start over after i finish my coffee. I usually can find it if the page flips but for whatever reason not this time.

Your... juliets coffee?

yes exactly. If I were giving out prizes I'd give you one.

[Matahari]

Who are you going to vote and why?

If I had to vote right now, it would be for Matahari. I just discussed FZ's actions during the MM lynch, and Mata did basically the same thing as FZ, yet even more suspiciously in my opinion. I felt she was trying too hard to justify her vote for him. Boomslang brought some of these points up; Mata called it cherry picking and dismissed it outright. I've got my eye on her big time.

Apparently you have 3 eyes on me

I always give a reason for voting unless I have no reason at all. So I did the same thing that FZ did, but more suspiciously? Please explain this.

I responded to Boomslang after challenging him. My first post to him, the dismissive one, was to make him explain further, which he didn't do. But I took what he did say to me as possibly being honest, so I did respond to his first post. It amazes me how often I have seen people say something about me not posting, when I just posted the page before. I must be invisible.

[Matahari]

When I have reason to think there is a slight possibility that someone is a very important civ, I will not discuss that in thread. There is no call for putting a target on someone.

I used to have TH slightly on the bad side of the fence, but not now. He is moved more into the good side. DH went from gray area, by-passed the bad side completely straight to good side of fence. Daisy, BR on the good side

Alrighty then, Mata.

I don't mind saying if I trust someone or think they are good or bad. But I don't like specifically quoting posts that might point to a role for someone I trust. If I think someone is not trustworthy, I will say what I can to show why I think that. Speaking of which, since you think I'm bad, what role do you think I am and why?

[juliets]

And now for my thoughts (I still need to finish catching up, but I'll do it later):

TH, you asked about my thoughts on Mata. The thing that made me consider maybe you're right, is the fact that up until this day, she said she was suspicious of me, but ended up voting elsewhere, and this day, when you'd expect her to actually ponder what I've said, is when she's more suspicious of me. It made me think that maybe when she though I was bad, she didn't want to lynch me, and when she's realizing I might be good, she's willing to vote for me because she doesn't need me.


Bass is definitely giving the most expected and easy suspicions, except for maybe llama, but I have no idea if his personal life has affected his game. At this point, he's giving nothing. He fits the sit back and let them all fight to the tee, so I can see myself voting there too. I would like him to comment truthfully about how much he's been invested in the game.

Rico seems very logical to me, but I'll have to reread him. I haven't been getting any bad vibes from him, but logical people can easily fool me.

Zeek seems okay to me. I don't think I agree with whoever called him out. I think it was Boo.

Juliets- I've never seen her as a baddie, but she always seems nice and considering all angles. I can see why she would rely on Epi's analysis, but I would like to hear more from her in terms of her own thoughts regarding other people.

FZ. i just got through a long post and lost it. I'm so irritated I'm not going to rewrite it now. I'll have some coffee and then maybe attempt it again.

Ok, let's try this again. Oddly enough FZ. I agree with several of your assessments of people.

Your first post is something I hadn't thought about in my assessment of Mata so I will fold those thoughts in and take another look. I believe there are also some things TH brought up that I need to take into consideration.

With Bass, I just went through the same thing in Roger Rabbit in that Bass has a rl situation that could be affecting the way he posts, i.e. the way he was giving nothing even when he did post. In that particular case he finally said something that made most people feel they needed to overlook the real life circumstances and vote for him. He was indeed bad. I think about that situation as I look at Bass in this game. I agree with you that he is a potential vote for me though I want to re-read him again.

Your thoughts about llama I don't agree with though. I see his normal game, some foolishness and some tunnelvision but since it is normal for him it doesn't cause me to see him as a baddie. I skimmed over his posts and didn't see anything that stood out but if you think something does stick out just tell me what it is and i will reconsider. (If you already did that don't worry I will find it in your posts. I just don't remember it from the posts I read yesterday. My memory is bad in this game where there are people saying a lot of things most of the time.)

I also agree that Rico reads logical to me and as i said before I am attracted to such logic. I haven't reread him and he's not currently on my priority list for a reread unless someone comes up with something that I hadn't noticed. And also zeek doesn't trouble me at this point.

Spacedaisy also seems on the level to me and I agree with her that I can't quite work myself up to fully trust Epi to be a detective. That said though, the fact that he seems to have his own agenda leads me to believe he is either yotsuba or sidoh. She also points out, and again i agree, that he really seems genuine in his belief that you are bad. That belief convinced me last night - well mostly it was the %'s from his analysis - but I don't know that it would be enough tonight. TH made me feel bad that maybe I didn't take in enough of my own reads, but on the other side of that coin, reads are emotional by nature and I rarely vote totally on reads (I have done it every once in a while).

boo - earlier in the game I found myself agreeing a lot with what boo was saying but it seems like he has dropped off of posting so there is not that much there for me to assess anymore. It also feels like DH has dropped off a little bit (is this just my imagination that these two have dropped off?) so it's hard for me to feel anything but neutral (not leaning good or bad) for these two.

I'm going to leave off here for now, I don't want to lose another post.

[Matahari]

Slightly on the bad side, or on the fence are Llama and Epig.

And- I'm not ready to vote Llama or Epig yet, because I want to have something to more to present than 'feels'.

Boomslang, Zeke, MM, and Ricochet are ppl I'm not familiar with. With the exception of MM, who seems kind of whacky, the others trouble me because they are not saying enough to get a grip on. Although, when they do post, I don't see it as dishonest.

I also trust ppl who are susp of MM, and I could vote there as well. Made and TH are ppl I have voted because I couldn't understand their behavior. I was wrong about them, but still, it was my reason, and I can do that again.

So Mata would rather vote for a player who she felt hasn't been dishonest, for reasons that were wrong reasons in the past (her words!), rather than vote based on "feels" for either of the two players that she actually lists as being on the bad side of her suspicion-fence.

Alrighty then, Mata.

I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying here. Could you reword that? If I vote for players that I think are being deceptive or up to some kind of tomfoolery, I don't see where that is so bad, I'm definitely not the only one who did the same thing. And I didn't try to convince other ppl to follow my lead on it either, as it is just my feelings and nothing concrete.

Let me ask you this? If I said that I don't trust Llama and Epig, because they tried to take control of the thread early in a game, and they frequently sound slick and tricky, would you be persuaded to vote for them? Yeah, thats what I thought.

If I didn't understand you, please ask me again, but differently so I get it, thanks

[Matahari]

I want to call extra special attention to that last quote, because look at it one more time:

I also trust ppl who are susp of MM, and I could vote there as well. Made and TH are ppl I have voted because I couldn't understand their behavior. I was wrong about them, but still, it was my reason, and I can do that again.

Look at how hard Mata is trying to justify her vote for MM based on how she's voted previously.

Dude, you have now run out of eyes. Thats not a justification, that is the reason for some of my votes in this game, because I have no one better to vote at the time, so ppl acting weird will be better than someone else.
No let me ask you something. I couldn't bring myself to push the button on FZ, because I had a slight feeling that she might be a civ. So I went with a vote on someone else. More than once, I might add. It took me until just recently to finally think that I was being silly, and if Epig was going to keep on pushing a case, that maybe I should rethink Epig. As in, maybe he is 100% sure of what he is saying and can't say it any other way. Now that I have decided that I might be wrong, I see that other players are beginning to think the same way about FZ as I was thinking thru the game. :circles:

So, what is your opinion of FZ?

[Matahari]

I'm definitely considering the BTSC angle. They've had it since at least Night 5, and possibly earlier than that. Also notice how Mata recently had a sudden clarity about a bunch of people she thinks are civs, and was totally okay talking openly about those reads, unprovoked by anyone to do so.... despite her later claims of not wanting to discuss who she thinks is civ because it would put targets on their backs. Who would want to rattle off a list of civs like that? Probably a baddie who had recently gained BTSC with (almost) her entire team. Probably a baddie trying to gain the trust of the people she named as civs.

As for the drunken bea angle, the easy answer is that it was Marshy's idea.

Sudden clarity? Thats funny. I have read a few posts about me not posting much, and I do a list at some point in every game. Nothing new or unusual here. Discussing good vs bad, or civ vs mafia is what we do. Even if no one wants to read it, I don't need an invitation to post my thoughts on players as I get them. My list is kind of weak, but it might get stronger as the game goes on. I don't know about the BTSC angle, you said you know which night they had it- well I don't. I am not a part of this 'they'.

[Matahari]

It's an old picture that predates Harry Potter by far.

Is it old enough for an old-timey mafia veteran like Matahari to have seen?

Overkill. In case I forgot to ask in earlier posts, I'm going to risk repeating, who do you you think I am? oh and what is your opinion of FZ?

[Boomslang]

I'd also like to mention that DH's problems with Bass' reply to boo are pretty much the same I had, even if I tangled myself a bit in the wording / meaning of his post. I still can't tell much his genuine RL issues affected his performance here, but I already know from experience (Film) that even a low-poster Bass could potentially come with good (even right) reads. By comparison, the suspect list her gave here is really lackluster.

Going to third this analysis. While it might be accurate to say that your top suspects are unlynchable, it's really not helpful to the civ cause. Whether this comes from a deliberate desire to slow the investigation (ala baddie) or is induced by RL issues, I suppose, is a judgment call. I think Mata and FZ are probably better targets for focus at this moment.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm at work, so I can't make this long.

llama, I don't get how my actions sound less genuine than my words. I avoided the hinting until I found a very good reason to do so. If the baddies actually know one another at some point in the game, then they will know that others who can't be lynched have civvie roles, and will hence know my role. Once you lynch me, it will be in the open, so it doesn't matter if I say it or not, and this is the point in time when I thought that the reasons used to get me lynched would actually be compelling enough to get me lynched.
If I'd been a baddie that can't be lynched, I wouldn't have cared if I were lynched, because the civvies would be too confused to figure out when I can or can't be lynched. But with the civvie roles that can't be lynched, it might be a lot easier to figure out when they could be lynched, so I was trying to not go there. Maybe I shouldn't have done it anyway, and just waited to see if I was the one getting the most votes, but I'm so sick of defending myself, that I thought that if I said it, it would actually make a difference.

Just out of curiosity, how many of you can honestly say that had they been a civvie accused for 8 days, they wouldn't have lost it by now? (Just a small reminder: Epi snapped quite early (assuming he's good, Bea snapped relatively fast). I think I should get a medal for keeping it up for so long.

We just had a conversation about role outting/hinting/claiming.

[Ricochet]

I'm definitely considering the BTSC angle. They've had it since at least Night 5, and possibly earlier than that. Also notice how Mata recently had a sudden clarity about a bunch of people she thinks are civs, and was totally okay talking openly about those reads, unprovoked by anyone to do so.... despite her later claims of not wanting to discuss who she thinks is civ because it would put targets on their backs. Who would want to rattle off a list of civs like that? Probably a baddie who had recently gained BTSC with (almost) her entire team. Probably a baddie trying to gain the trust of the people she named as civs.

As for the drunken bea angle, the easy answer is that it was Marshy's idea.

Sudden clarity? Thats funny. I have read a few posts about me not posting much, and I do a list at some point in every game. Nothing new or unusual here. Discussing good vs bad, or civ vs mafia is what we do. Even if no one wants to read it, I don't need an invitation to post my thoughts on players as I get them. My list is kind of weak, but it might get stronger as the game goes on. I don't know about the BTSC angle, you said you know which night they had it- well I don't. I am not a part of this 'they'.

Misa Amane (Second Kira) ...
She gains BTSC with Light after one of their Death Notes has been relinquished or taken by Sidoh, or after the end of Night 5, whichever comes first.

[Matahari]

Here is my dilemma. I don't trust Epi. I don't think he is kira (or at least not an active one), but I don't think he is working for the detectives. I think he has his own agenda. However, I also think he really and truly believes he is right about FZ. He might not be, but he believes he is. And while his math seems sound, it's based on some assumptions. And until now, I have dismissed it because you feel really genuine. But the thing is FZ, when you claimed an unlynchable role, it looks like a preemptive strike. Like you are trying to hold onto a death note as long as you can. As if you can give it up and be unlynchable for a few days I would bet, but you don't want to have to.

Mata, what troubles me with you is two fold. You have listed some people in the past as your trusted players. it feels an awful lot like buddying up. Additionally you lately mentioned something that can't be discussed and I was looking at the roles to see what I thought of this statement. I don't know how I feel about it. And you fit the profile of what I believe a Misa or Mikami player might do. Blendy, not too many posts, but not too few.

I could see placing my vote on either of these two today. I will have to decide before I go to work tomorrow afternoon. I'll read some tomorrow morning and see where I land, there are a couple others I want to read up on because I'm not sure how I feel, but they are secondary. We will see how much time I have tomorrow.

Daisy, I don't buddy up. Maybe it appears that way to some ppl, or maybe its something that some ppl choose to use against someone. I just say what I think, and sometimes I don't say what I think, for various reasons.

Can't be discussed means a lot of things, but it can't be discussed is the main one.

I probably fit several different profiles, but I think that's weak as evidence.

[Matahari]

I'm definitely considering the BTSC angle. They've had it since at least Night 5, and possibly earlier than that. Also notice how Mata recently had a sudden clarity about a bunch of people she thinks are civs, and was totally okay talking openly about those reads, unprovoked by anyone to do so.... despite her later claims of not wanting to discuss who she thinks is civ because it would put targets on their backs. Who would want to rattle off a list of civs like that? Probably a baddie who had recently gained BTSC with (almost) her entire team. Probably a baddie trying to gain the trust of the people she named as civs.

As for the drunken bea angle, the easy answer is that it was Marshy's idea.

Sudden clarity? Thats funny. I have read a few posts about me not posting much, and I do a list at some point in every game. Nothing new or unusual here. Discussing good vs bad, or civ vs mafia is what we do. Even if no one wants to read it, I don't need an invitation to post my thoughts on players as I get them. My list is kind of weak, but it might get stronger as the game goes on. I don't know about the BTSC angle, you said you know which night they had it- well I don't. I am not a part of this 'they'.

Misa Amane (Second Kira) ...
She gains BTSC with Light after one of their Death Notes has been relinquished or taken by Sidoh, or after the end of Night 5, whichever comes first.

Thanks Ricochet for your input, although you are wrong. Please tell me why you think this. I still want to hear what TH thinks.

As for me, I am going to vote FZ today.

[Ricochet]

I'm definitely considering the BTSC angle. They've had it since at least Night 5, and possibly earlier than that. Also notice how Mata recently had a sudden clarity about a bunch of people she thinks are civs, and was totally okay talking openly about those reads, unprovoked by anyone to do so.... despite her later claims of not wanting to discuss who she thinks is civ because it would put targets on their backs. Who would want to rattle off a list of civs like that? Probably a baddie who had recently gained BTSC with (almost) her entire team. Probably a baddie trying to gain the trust of the people she named as civs.

As for the drunken bea angle, the easy answer is that it was Marshy's idea.

Sudden clarity? Thats funny. I have read a few posts about me not posting much, and I do a list at some point in every game. Nothing new or unusual here. Discussing good vs bad, or civ vs mafia is what we do. Even if no one wants to read it, I don't need an invitation to post my thoughts on players as I get them. My list is kind of weak, but it might get stronger as the game goes on. I don't know about the BTSC angle, you said you know which night they had it- well I don't. I am not a part of this 'they'.

Misa Amane (Second Kira) ...
She gains BTSC with Light after one of their Death Notes has been relinquished or taken by Sidoh, or after the end of Night 5, whichever comes first.

Thanks Ricochet for your input, although you are wrong. Please tell me why you think this. I still want to hear what TH thinks.

As for me, I am going to vote FZ today.

I don't know what I am wrong with. I did not intend to imply anything with that, just to clarify that "the BTSC angle" is part of the revealed secrets, since you seemed not to be aware of that.

[Marmot]

I'm definitely considering the BTSC angle. They've had it since at least Night 5, and possibly earlier than that. Also notice how Mata recently had a sudden clarity about a bunch of people she thinks are civs, and was totally okay talking openly about those reads, unprovoked by anyone to do so.... despite her later claims of not wanting to discuss who she thinks is civ because it would put targets on their backs. Who would want to rattle off a list of civs like that? Probably a baddie who had recently gained BTSC with (almost) her entire team. Probably a baddie trying to gain the trust of the people she named as civs.

As for the drunken bea angle, the easy answer is that it was Marshy's idea.

Sudden clarity? Thats funny. I have read a few posts about me not posting much, and I do a list at some point in every game. Nothing new or unusual here. Discussing good vs bad, or civ vs mafia is what we do. Even if no one wants to read it, I don't need an invitation to post my thoughts on players as I get them. My list is kind of weak, but it might get stronger as the game goes on. I don't know about the BTSC angle, you said you know which night they had it- well I don't. I am not a part of this 'they'.

Misa Amane (Second Kira) ...
She gains BTSC with Light after one of their Death Notes has been relinquished or taken by Sidoh, or after the end of Night 5, whichever comes first.

Nice catch there Rico. You've been paying attention.

[Spacedaisy]

I slept on it and I have really come down to three things.

1. I don't trust Epi. He is not a detective, I feel certain of that. And while he is certain in his belief, I don't trust his agenda.

2. His math is based on assumptions. Assumptions that we do not have the answers to and therefore his case is guesswork at best.

3. FZ sounds far more genuine to me than Mata.

I am going to vote mata.

[Epignosis]

I have decided that voting for FZ. remains the most sensible path. I will summarize why in a concise manner here.

Regarding Mogi

1. Russtifinko, likely Mogi, was silent for over 48 hours. His only post was to come in and vote for FZ., doing so early.
2. If I'm right about Mogi's check, then there is only a 12% chance Russ got a false Kira report.
3. Russ was killed the very next Day.
4. Some people (even though pretending to be detectives) are diminishing or outright dismissing Russ' contribution.

++++

Regarding FZ.'s Posts

5. FZ. was not hunting early on like she usually does when civilian. I mentioned her on Day 1 and she said my reasoning was "shitty." Others, including Russ on Day 6, have agreed with me about her.
6. She made reference to her "baddie game" but claimed she didn't have one. I read through a game in which she was bad and noted some similarities.
7. She has repeatedly discounted or dismissed evidence.
8. She claimed that it's easier to build cases against civilians than it is Mafia.
9. Before she announced that she was unlynchable, she said in regard to me, "In his eyes, either we waste a lynch, or lynch a detective (me)."
10. She thinks that Mafia are trying to frustrate detectives into outing themselves.
11. It doesn't make sense for an unlychable (but killable) detective to out herself to avoid being lynched. That is a strategy with absolutely no upside.

++++

Regarding FZ.'s Votes
12. Voted bwt over Snowman, even campaigning in defense of Snowman.
13. Voted MM the same Day she said, "I have no idea. He's a riddle to me. Can you think of things that differ his civvie game from his baddie game?" That same day, FZ. tried to get people to pile on llama ("I need to go in a while. Anyone thinking of voting llama?") but there were no takers. She criticized llama ("But I realized he's not really contributing, he voted for me today for a very lame reason, in my opinion, and he's very narrow minded in his suspicions.") but her vote for MM was, if we're being fair, for a really lame reason ("I trust the people who voted for him"). She backed off the llama suspicion too (because he had guests). The people who voted MM (i.e., the one's she trusted) were Turnip Head, spacedaisy, and juliets. In the same post that she said she trusted these three, she said she thinks that TH is Sidoh. juliets voted for FZ. on Day 6, but FZ. somehow trusts her.

++++

Regarding Other Elements

14. Kira wrote this in the post: "BEA: I've got a message for you from Master Kira himself! YOU'RE NEXT, FZ!" This is a feeble attempt to make FZ. look like a detective.
15. I believe lynching FZ. is win-win. If she's not lying about being an unlynchable detective, then she will survive the lynch. If she is Kira, however, then the detectives will have forced the Death Note out of her hands. It's a cost-benefit analysis: Best case scenario, Kira loses a death note and L will know. Worst case scenario, nothing happens.

[FZ.]

Epi, just vote for me, I don't care any more. Serious question though: Could you just expain how if I am a Kira the death not is forced out of my hands or whatever it is you said?

[FZ.]

Oh, and as for the Bea note, this is the most pathetic attempt at a WIFOM I have ever seen, but you're obviously falling for it

[FZ.]

One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

[thellama73]

One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

FZ, do you think I should vote for you today or someone else. If someone else, who?

[Turnip Head]

Speaking of which, since you think I'm bad, what role do you think I am and why?

I'll respond to your other rebuttals when I can mata, unfortunately I'm at work right now so I don't have much time. As for this, I have no idea what your specific role is. I've made it clear that I think you're in the big bad BTSC group with MM though (please let me know if you think that wasn't clear), and that's as far as my analysis of your role can take me. You asked this question twice, why is it important to you?

You also asked me what I think of FZ. I think she's a detective.

[Epignosis]

I slept on it and I have really come down to three things.

1. I don't trust Epi. He is not a detective, I feel certain of that. And while he is certain in his belief, I don't trust his agenda.

Well, okay, but I feel like I'm doing more than my share of the detective work.

2. His math is based on assumptions. Assumptions that we do not have the answers to and therefore his case is guesswork at best.

It's a shame that you called my case "guesswork at best" when the math is only one part of it.

3. FZ sounds far more genuine to me than Mata.

It is Day 8, right? You said this Day 1:

I would consider a vote for either FZ or Trice right now. FZ seems kind of all over the place, which does not seem in character. And trice has been caught snipping post and misrepresenting them. That is hardly civ behavior.

I'm voting Trice.

That's a Day 1 suspicion that you dropped and never visited again until Day 6, when you said:

Frankly I am surprised by this stuff coming out the woodwork about FZ. And I don't know that I buy it. She feels genuine to me. So since i need to vote before going to work because voting from work is a pita, I'm putting my vote on Made.

Votes Made.

But I'm glad I went through all of your posts, because I found this nugget:

Looking back Epi, you suspected FZ because of her absence as well, saying she is probably bad with SD. But FZ has since contributed quite a bit (though she did miss the lynch), and you never updated your suspicion to something current. If you did, then I can't find it.

I don't share your assessment of FZ. I think she has since posted a lot, but the content is not what I associate with good FZ. Good FZ. has a certain tenacity and assurance. She is a focused civilian, one that has proven dangerous to Mafia. I am not seeing that here.

We're definitely not on the same page. Whether or not it's constructive, FZ has contributed of late. Whether you think she's bad or good, you put her in a tough spot by suspecting her for 'being absent'. Same with Russ. Their continued absence will increase the suspicion of them. Also, if they do get around to talking, they'll be under the magnifying glass for being a previous target. It's a lose-lose situation for them.

Now, I do agree with your current observations of FZ. I also earlier missed this post on her, so your vote is more clear to me.

What do you know? An early, waffling defense of FZ from MM!

One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

Never!

[thellama73]

Yeah, a lot of people suspected FZ early and then backed off of her. That is one of the reasons I suspect her now. Hang on, I'll dig it up.

[FZ.]

One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

FZ, do you think I should vote for you today or someone else. If someone else, who?

Do you really care what I think? If you are a civvie and don't want to waste a vote, don't vote for me. If you're not, do.
And I don't know. You're thoughts on Mata are based on the fact that she hasn't voted for me. Since I'm not bad, that is a stupid reason. Like I said, the fact that she now wants to vote for me should be the reason to think she's bad, because to me, it could be a sign that she realized I'm telling the truth and does not have a need to keep me unlynched.


linki: Epi, I just want to know what will happen when you're proven wrong. All your suspicions are based on you thinking I'm bad. in the smallest chance that you're wrong (let's play that game, ok?), who would your suspects be then?

[thellama73]

Found it!

Here's something else I want to say about FZ. Something that's been bothering me. The following quotes are from Day 2.

I came into today feeling pretty much the same about FZ as I did before. When she is a civ, regardless of the thread output, she is fearless, poking people and speaking her mind. Calling people out for all kinds of things. This game, not so much. When she finally does suspect someone strongly enought to commit to it (kinda) it is someone she suspects for basically the same reasons she herself is suspoect.

It is rare that you and I agree, especially on a suspect with matching reasons.

She feels a bit over defensive at being looked at too. I've never heard her say that there was too much discussion going on before this game. Here or on her own site. She's usually the one trying to get people to talk more.

About FZ, I don't like that she called me out, it was weird. But I really want her to be a civ because she is an awesome civ! I've only played one game with her though. I will have to take what SVS and bea say about her into consideration because they know her playstyle much better than I do.

I am still wary of FZ, she raised points about Bea's posts that were good examples of her own style of posting. But at this point, I'm so weary of the manipulating nit-pickers that I'm probably going to vote one of them. They seem badder by the minute.

FZ. vs Bea - Bea is like this a lot, but she's also very good at doing what she does and being bad. FZ has struck me so far as moderately more suspect than the people she is bringing up.

Right now, I'm at a vote for FZ or TH. I have yet to read much of anything from snowman. What's the general case on Snowman?

I've never seen such a desparate FZ. It's odd.

You had eight players, not counting me, mentioning at least some suspicion on FZ. In fact, at the time I thought it all seemed too easy. I got nervous and backed off her, because I thought too many people were ready to hop onto the bandwagon for her to be bad. Yet when the votes came in not a single person voted for FZ. Of course, that was also the day she helped lead the charge against BWT who, I need not remind you, was a Yotsuba (not too many feathers on either side ruffled by that lynch. Convenient.)

I am now wondering if some people were playing along with the suspicion by paying lip service to it, but never really had any intention of voting for her. It seems weird to me, and is another reason why I plan to vote for her today.

[thellama73]

One last thing. When I come out civ, at the end of the game (not now, obviously), just admit that you were wrong, and don't make it look like you were really clever and trying to get me lynched because you weren't a detective, okay? Because I don't believe you're that good of a baddie

FZ, do you think I should vote for you today or someone else. If someone else, who?

Do you really care what I think? If you are a civvie and don't want to waste a vote, don't vote for me. If you're not, do.
And I don't know. You're thoughts on Mata are based on the fact that she hasn't voted for me. Since I'm not bad, that is a stupid reason. Like I said, the fact that she now wants to vote for me should be the reason to think she's bad, because to me, it could be a sign that she realized I'm telling the truth and does not have a need to keep me unlynched.

Of course I care what you think. But you didn't really answer my question. Are you saying I should vote for Mata?

[FZ.]

For crying out loud, I was suspected early on and backed off because it wasn't convenient to pick on me. When someone who seems legit by the players goes after me, the crowd follows. We already know some of them were probably civvies

Vote for whoever you want. Last time I encouraged people to vote for the person I thought was more bad, it turned out I saved a baddie

[FZ.]

I am contemplating a vote for Mata. My problem is, like I said, if your main reason to vote for her is because she and I are working together, and you think she's been trying to avoid lynching me, then that is absolutely wrong. She could be a baddie that was trying to defend me because she thought I was bad, that's another story.

I'm at a point where I am willing to vote for myself. If I vote for myself and I get the most votes, you say I wanted to protect her because maybe she could have been lynched. I have no idea what she is, I know I'm a civ. Do I risk it and vote for her? Maybe. And there's also Bass, but I don't know.

And where is BR, and why isn't she talking more?

[thellama73]

For crying out loud, I was suspected early on and backed off because it wasn't convenient to pick on me. When someone who seems legit by the players goes after me, the crowd follows. We already know some of them were probably civvies

Vote for whoever you want. Last time I encouraged people to vote for the person I thought was more bad, it turned out I saved a baddie

I am trying to give you an out and you are not taking it. Who should I vote for if not you?

[FZ.]

For crying out loud, I was suspected early on and backed off because it wasn't convenient to pick on me. When someone who seems legit by the players goes after me, the crowd follows. We already know some of them were probably civvies

Vote for whoever you want. Last time I encouraged people to vote for the person I thought was more bad, it turned out I saved a baddie

I am trying to give you an out and you are not taking it. Who should I vote for if not you?

I don't need an out, have you not been listening to me?
I gave you my thoughts on people, and where my vote may possibly go. I'm not even sold on you being good and I'm definitely not taking any responsibility for your vote. Vote for whoever you damn please

[FZ.]

I would have been having so much more fun had I actually been a baddie

[thellama73]

For crying out loud, I was suspected early on and backed off because it wasn't convenient to pick on me. When someone who seems legit by the players goes after me, the crowd follows. We already know some of them were probably civvies

Vote for whoever you want. Last time I encouraged people to vote for the person I thought was more bad, it turned out I saved a baddie

I am trying to give you an out and you are not taking it. Who should I vote for if not you?

I don't need an out, have you not been listening to me?
I gave you my thoughts on people, and where my vote may possibly go. I'm not even sold on you being good and I'm definitely not taking any responsibility for your vote. Vote for whoever you damn please

Why won't you say who you think I should vote for?

[Epignosis]

linki: Epi, I just want to know what will happen when you're proven wrong. All your suspicions are based on you thinking I'm bad. in the smallest chance that you're wrong (let's play that game, ok?), who would your suspects be then?

I've always wondered what would happen if I was ever proven wrong!

If you're telling the truth (12% chance), then we won't find out for some time, and I cannot say for sure who my suspects would be at that point. There would be a lot for more to think about and reevaluate.

I would have been having so much more fun had I actually been a baddie

How so?

[FZ.]

I just saw that Mata had already voted for me. Very interesting in light of all her other votes where she was pondering and contemplating all the aspects of everything. Have you noticed that she hasn't even asked me one question since I claimed my lynch would be a waste? Wouldn't she at all try to understand where I'm coming from.

This seals the deal for me and proves that she's not interested in helping the civvie cause. I'm voting for her.

linki: Are you satisfied llama?

linki: I would have had more fun because I'd be sitting here pleased with myself for managing to confuse you all so much

[thellama73]

linki: Are you satisfied llama?

You told me who you are voting for, you didn't tell me who I should vote for, so no.

[FZ.]

linki: Are you satisfied llama?

You told me who you are voting for, you didn't tell me who I should vote for, so no.

Haha, what? Are you looking for someone to place the blame on if she comes out good?

[Boomslang]

linki: Are you satisfied llama?

You told me who you are voting for, you didn't tell me who I should vote for, so no.

Man, this whole last push of FZ is giving me weird vibes. I feel like I'm sensing some true desperation; could be a great acting job, but since we have another good target in Mata, I'm going to take that route today. *votes Mata*