[END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

[Young Lady]

That challenge should've ended the whole game tbh.

[Gunther]

I see that everyone else is stunned silent by our accomplishment with that 10-minute challenge. No, we are not immortal, just committed.

[Young Lady]

Aka crazy

[Gunther]

Aka crazy

Like a "mofo."

[Sloonei]

[Sloonei]

I can't right now, but someone needs to check his posts for ika-relevant content to test this theory -- especially the content coming after ika's lynch.

I am in the middle of doing this, btw.

[Gunther]

I'll help the prisoners understand why they don't need to worry about Sloonei and Turnip Head in ways that those two cannot.

We know for sure that both dons are still alive. They cannot be arrested, and no lynches have resulted in a don flip.

Sloonei mechanically must be a don. agleaminranks the traitor was triggered to switch sides after Day 1. This means his don voted for him on Day 1. The following people voted for agleam on Day 1:

S~V~S - can't be don, was arrested
Golden - can't be don, was arrested
DDL - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Sockface
Epignosis - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Warden
Sloonei - alive and the don

Turnip Head is 98% likely to be the other don. An attempt to lynch him already failed, and a clear consigliere candidate is visible in thellama73.

I cannot be a cop because only one had been arrested when I was paroled (RadicalFuzz), and he was already modkilled.

This is why our focus is completely on chaindeath, Elohcin/Serge, and Soneji.

So to be clear, you think that Sloonei is the don because, even though his vote did not stay on Gleam by the end of Day 1, the fact that he voted for him at all triggered the defection? The Traitor role descritpion does seem to suggest this possibility.

[Gunther]

I have a little time before I am absorbed into mass transit, so I'll do some work. Why might each of the suspects have killed Nero? I'll theorize:

chaindeath

Throughout the game he has been stating a cop read on Nero (and Nero very often stated a cop read on chaindeath). On Night 11 however, chaindeath changed his mind:

Chaindeath is fine with Sloonei being warden. Soneji and Elo are likely the cops that are remaining. And to preemptively stop the OMG he changed his mind on Nero. It happens. In light of Epi's flip as a cop and some of the conversation leading up to and in the time between days chaindeath has an idea. Epi kept pushing for the two of us to be lynched and if Nero was his teammate that probably wouldn't be a smart thing to do. What would happen if the town rallied to chaindeath's side and we ended up lynching him and loosing the game from it. He'll be keeping an eye on Nero but for the moment he seems like he could be town.

Prior to this moment, Nero only had two significant enemies left in this thread -- chaindeath himself and me. Soneji and Sloonei have been more positive in their reads on Nero lately. So with chaindeath changing his mind like this, Nero's chance of being lynched immediately dropped by quite a bit. I can't lynch him by myself after all (and it's a good thing he was removed or I might have tried. ). This might be an example of chaindeath projecting his own kill inadvertently by justifying it with a newly developed town read. With that read in the thread, suddenly a highly questionable arrest choice makes at least a little more sense.

Moreover, I think the Nero kill was strategically dubious -- he was a legitimate candidate to be a cop and he didn't have to be arrested. I fully expected to be arrested myself, because I'm never getting lynched on Day 12 and my vote can contribute to the lynch of an actual cop. chaindeath is the newest player remaining in this field, and this might have simply been a newbie mistake. I mean no offense chaindeath, we've all had moments like that.

Elohcin

Epignosis frequently asserted that Eloh just isn't reading this thread at all. He might have been with the cops, but I still believe him on that point. I don't think she is paying attention to this game beyond the necessity to meet voting requirements. That might be enough to explain a dubious arrest choice like Nerolunar.

Soneji

If he's a cop, he has to arrest someone -- and among the standard townies he has no options except for people that could be lynched (anyone not including Sloonei or Turnip Head). The only question to be asked for Soneji would be: "Why wouldn't he arrest Prisoner 509378 instead of Nerolunar???" If there's any reason to be stated, it'd be the cop win condition -- all members of the crime families must be eliminated. If Soneji has reason to doubt that I count among them, then removing me is not necessary to meeting that win condition regardless of my strategic position in the game currently.

Part of me wonders if Epi specifically convinced his wife to fill in for his team mate (Serge) when the need arose for a replacement.

These are all excellent observations, 509. I am going to go back now to read through from Day 10 onward. If I have time, I will ISO the three suspects.

[Sloonei]

I was actually doing a full read through of soneji's posts with an eye on mentions of ika and the seemer. Here's what I found:

ika was one of soneji's first suspects, stated on Day 2:

Spoiler: show

Totally forgot that this forum does night posting, only really had time to skim the thread. ika looks like a fine enough lynch target from my quick read through, with him buddying people, fluffing and refusing to give reasons for his suspicions. There are times when you hold back thoughts on a player but not when you're accusing them.

ika

He then backs off of ika somewhat for a couple of days after we lynched Fuzz. Everyone did this. He jumps back on ika after ika suggests that Sloonei is the Don and he's the reason a nightkill failed. A few people were at ika's throat calling this a scum slip, but Soneji's case was a bit more nuanced than that, which I like. He first mentions it in this large post, and explains it in more detail later on in this post (Day 6, pre-ika lynch):

Spoiler: show

Somethings been rather bothering me about the Ika slip and I think I figured out what it was. It really doesn't read like a slip. When I've encountered slips, they're based in role speculation that goes beyond a townies ability to guess specific workings of a role/ability or they manifest based on frustration/anger/demoralization from mafia actions failing or them getting cornered in-thread. In a recent game on NF, we caught someone on a knowledge slip based on his talk of a mafia multi-kill gone wrong(only killed one player when it had the potential to kill three), with his frustration coming out in the form of suggesting specific mechanics of the ability that had no firm basis just from the way it happened in the write-up.

I've never seen someone slip by straight up saying that the target of a failed mafia kill(arrest) was a specific player, not without them being able to claim tracker/watcher.(rarely even then). If it wasn't a slip though it was intentional, probably in the hopes that someone else could off Sloonei. If Ika flips scum, it would basically confirm Sloonei town. There is a mountain of evidence on Ika, we just need to finally push this lynch through.

Ika

So it's definitely established that Soneji suspected ika for much of the game, and his reasons not only check out, but are different from the popular reasons that people were holding against ika. I like this (and I like a lot of Soneji's ISO when I read through it again. He's been on a number of people's cases for reasons that go against the grain, and it's starting to look like he was right about a lot of it. That would be an unusually high volume of unnecessary bussing if he's bad). But what I'm really looking for here is evidence that Soneji has known ika was the undercover cop since the moment he flipped. And there is some. I'll highlight a couple of posts that caught my eye, both from Night 9, before we knew the seemer had to be dead/arrested:

Spoiler: show

Lets look at the numbers here. There are four cops to eight civs, if we assume that the seemer has been lynched. The cops will arrest at least one player tonight, potentially two. Lets assume the former, that puts us at four cops, seven civs. A mislynch next day phase will put as at best 4 vs 5 after the subsequent night phase. So at most, we can afford one mislynch if the cops don't get lucky with their 20% chance of lynching a second player.

The Scotty lynch was based on meta reasoning mainly, from how he acted in another game I wasn't in. I have had Epi try to shoot down my suspicion on Mongoose for meta reasons, SVS was saying Epi wouldn't tunnel sig if he was mafia due to meta reasons, etc...it seems this site has an over reliance on meta. Even the suspicion on me has never fully taken off as people are hesitant due to not knowing my meta. We need to stop thinking about meta and just judge the actions by themselves.

Spoiler: show

Ika was probably the seemer. There was that whole thing where he said an arrest failed on Sloonei. The guy was just extremely scummy besides. He did flip Stool Pigeon though, which if the Don was the role whose identity he knew, he may just have guessed that the failed arrest was on his Don(Sloonei in this case). Weird to out it like that but Ika didn't follow normal standard of play.

Either way, Sloonei can be removed from the pile.

The second one in particular resonates strongly with me. It is the kind of twisty, convoluted, yet sensible logic that I would associate with a player who knows something to be true, but can't outright state it in the thread because it would get him modkilled. It seems to me like Soneji is implying that if ika was the stool pigeon, he would have been more conscious of the possibility that a night arrested failed because of that role, but ika suggested it was a Don that made the kill fail, implying his mind was only on that role. Or I'm misinterpreting Soneji's post, but either way I think these couple of posts provide some feasible bread crumbs.

One point against the theory, though, is this post here from Day 8 (post-ika lynch)

If 5:

Chaindeath
Elochin
Dom
Epi
Nero

If 4: Remove Nero/whichever of Dom/Elo replaced Serge. Will need to do more research.

Soneji entertains the idea that there are 5 cops remaining (meaning the seemer has not been lynched), but that could just be because everyone was doing it, and he didn't want to give himself away or role hint.

But then one more point that I just remembered but forgot to highlight earlier in this post. On Day 7 I asked him a couple of things, including what he thought about the speculation that DDL was the seemer. At the time we had the greatest consensus on this choice. Ika's name had come up as a possible seemer, but no more than everyone else's had. When I asked soneji what he thought of the possibility that DDL was the seemer, he completely ignored the question:

Spoiler: show

Why is TH in your second tier of suspects and not your first?

For the same reason I'm voting Boomslang over TH really. I haven't seen anything I can view as townlike behavior from Draconus, Boomslang and Chaindeath while I have a bit of reason to doubt my read on TH, which has its main basis in his reaction to the lynch options on day 2. He did in the end vote for Fuzz and if scum, had the time to set up the potential to vote for someone else if the need arise. Then there is the possibility of Ika as the seemer, which muddies the water a bit more.

What about the thought of DDL as the seemer?
The one thing about TH that makes him a more appealing lynch today is that the case on him is the most substantial one that there is in this game. We all seem confident enough with Boomslang, but a large part of thay is his inactivity. Turnip Head has provided lots of content to analyze, and the results have come back mostly scummy. That's the way I see it, at least. Others do not need to agree.

I will need to review TH's full post history more to say whether I'd agree that he has an overall large amount of scummy content, after I get some sleep. What I have seen from TH isn't as standout scummy as Enrique's posts though and my suspicion there isn't based on his replacements inactivity. While I have sympathy for those replacing very likely mafia like Enrique, the evidence against the former owner of their role is too much to let fly.

He responded to the rest of my post in full, which makes me feel like his lack of a response to the particular question about DDL was deliberate. He had no thoughts on DDL being the seemer because he knew it wasn't the case.
When reading through Soneji's posts I can get at least a faint sense that he knew ika was the seemer, but that he didn't want to/couldn't just come out and say this, so he tried to take a tight-lipped approach to drop hints here and there when he couldn't outright say the things he wanted to say.

Plus his post history in general continues to look excellent. He was on Mongoose and Epi for ages. The episode where Prisoner 509378 provided a "fake" case against Epi at Epi's request, and then Soneji jumped on board with that case, as was highlighted earlier, reads as a genuine scum hunting effort on Soneji's part. If Epi had coordinated that behind the scenes, it's unlikely one of his teammates would have jumped on it like that. Plus he was one of the only people to bring up Mongoose/Draconus prior to process of elimination leading the rest of us to Dom. He also made a big case against Serge (Elohcin) earlier in the game that no one ever followed up on (I remember liking this post when I first read it, but then I could never find it again afterwards and forgot who made it).

Every time I look at Soneji's posts he becomes more of a town read, and since we know that 2 out of the 3 of him, Elohcin, and chaindeath have to be the final 2 cops, I feel pretty good about our chances.

[Gunther]

So maybe we should lynch chaindeath and just hope Elohcin isn't paying attention and misses the night phase? Or go for Elohcin since we think she is the Chief, thereby eliminating the prospect of a double arrest?

[Turnip Head]

I'll help the prisoners understand why they don't need to worry about Sloonei and Turnip Head in ways that those two cannot.

We know for sure that both dons are still alive. They cannot be arrested, and no lynches have resulted in a don flip.

Sloonei mechanically must be a don. agleaminranks the traitor was triggered to switch sides after Day 1. This means his don voted for him on Day 1. The following people voted for agleam on Day 1:

S~V~S - can't be don, was arrested
Golden - can't be don, was arrested
DDL - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Sockface
Epignosis - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Warden
Sloonei - alive and the don

Turnip Head is 98% likely to be the other don. An attempt to lynch him already failed, and a clear consigliere candidate is visible in thellama73.

I cannot be a cop because only one had been arrested when I was paroled (RadicalFuzz), and he was already modkilled.

This is why our focus is completely on chaindeath, Elohcin/Serge, and Soneji.

So to be clear, you think that Sloonei is the don because, even though his vote did not stay on Gleam by the end of Day 1, the fact that he voted for him at all triggered the defection? The Traitor role descritpion does seem to suggest this possibility.

I believe we were specifically told that it would work like this.

[Sloonei]

So maybe we should lynch chaindeath and just hope Elohcin isn't paying attention and misses the night phase? Or go for Elohcin since we think she is the Chief, thereby eliminating the prospect of a double arrest?

I would prefer to try to eliminate the chief first. I am inclined to believe that is Elohcin. If it is her, she is at least paying enough attention to submit a nightly kill.
However I'd say I'm more confident about chaindeath being a cop, simply because he's provided more content this game.

[Gunther]

Really, eliminating the double arrest is a "no-brainer." That might also make sense why the the hosts didn't just let Serge's role wallow in unused oblivion. The police need that role active to keep the double-arrest alive. Did there seem to be tension or desperation at all at the time the hosts were looking for a replacement? It could help explain Elohcin's recruitment by Epi- "Please, honey, just fill in for the role. We need the help. You won't even have to post much. You keep the double-arrest chance alive and we'll take care of you."

[Sloonei]

Here is Soneji's case against Serge (Elohcin), by the way. There has not been much content provided by either Serge or Elohcin since this time, so it can be read as a rather complete case, though it was made long before process of elimination had brought us to where we are now. This is probably as thorough as it's gonna get as far as actual content analysis goes for Serge or Elohcin:

Spoiler: show

Pages 41-89. Its relieving that there were just some pages I could skip as it was just Ika and SW back and forth...

Hello everyone, sorry for missing out on the last day. I've read up until page 15, hopefully I'll catch up tomorrow.

I'm quite surprised at the number of new players in this specific game. The thread is going so fast and references on other games flash by here and there. Let us be civil(no pun intended), it seems some sparks are flying.

Who/what is a linki? When I catch up hopefully I'll be able to form a clearer picture. If it doesn't come in that form, I'll make that investigation board instead. No matter what happens, I'll cast a vote this day phase.

Hello everyone, sorry for missing out on the last day. I've read up until page 15, hopefully I'll catch up tomorrow.

I'm quite surprised at the number of new players in this specific game. The thread is going so fast and references on other games flash by here and there. Let us be civil(no pun intended), it seems some sparks are flying.

Who/what is a linki? When I catch up hopefully I'll be able to form a clearer picture. If it doesn't come in that form, I'll make that investigation board instead. No matter what happens, I'll cast a vote this day phase.

Hello again Serge, "linki" refers to when a new post pops up during the time you are typing your own new post.

What would you say is your general strategy on Days 1 & 2 of a Mafia game? Has this game been busier than what you are accustomed to?

Hullo Sloonei, I have just arrived at your post. Thanks to you and that other person that explained linki.

I don't like 0s and 1s as they usually revolve around random guessing and nitpicking the tiniest bits of text that may be construed as scummy. An example would be llama saying that Luffy complaining that the game is hard for cops is scummy is an example.

For Day 2, I generally put who got lynched and nightkilled front and center, using the posts from the previous day to try and find any links as to how both these things transpire.

I'm going to resume reading now, see you when I catch up.

These promises of activity, especially regarding whatever he meant by an investigation board and looking at arrests/lynches as his main basis for scumhunting, never came to fruition. He also had a slight fixation with being sure to vote. After the post above his next posts about three and a half hours later are these:

Can someone tell me if the clock on the front page is the same time everyone is seeing?

@thellama73, is your vote for Luffy serious? If so, why?

Thanks! MP actually just told me that. It's really nifty and useful.

Then he ends day 2 voting Ika without any detailed reasoning:

I like thellama73's in-depth post about why he thinks Luffy is a cop. I don't necessarily agree with it but that amount of perception doesn't reek of scum to me. If he held on to just the "this game is hard to win for cops" thing, I may have voted for him.

I think ika is acting like a very naughty deer caught between the headlights. I honestly don't remember the case against gleam anymore, and the one against Epignosis half-built on his meta, which I don't take stock on.

Um, someone tell me how to vote.

ika

Does that work?

The rest of his posts are just him defending himself a bit and mostly putting all attention on some of the motives around the day 2 CFD.

Chaindeath has finished reading all of the posts to this point, in the stead of lunch might he add. He would like to acknowledge that he is flattered that thellama would not vote to lynch chaindeath. However, He wishes to let his suspicions be known of Matt and Silverwolf. Matt is acting oddly, and chaindeath is not put at ease with any of Matt's posts. Silverwolf seems fishy as well (odd since shes a wolf and all) he is not comfortable with the snap votes as soon as the polls opened.

Also Chaindeath would like to start a discussion about the hosts night powers. Perhaps the flower of the cosmos was able to redirect the night arrest away from the intended target, especially since in the day before she lost quite a bit from her family. He proposes that she is trying to keep her family at a size that would allow for a fighting chance. In the same mannor,he took the cup, that He thinks that the foot-covering used his power to radically harm the her family. He requests your thoughts.

So he says hes read up, appealing to sympathy maybe by mentioning he missed lunch to do so, yet he gives very vague reasoning for the two posters he finds suspect then suggests talking about host night powers, which outside of thinking the arrest was redirected to Tranq by Spacedaisy holds no relevance.

Voted RadicalFuzz. No reason.

Both the gleam and ika wagons are highly suspicious/dubious.

I agree with this but I also seem to have missed the Epignosis one being a thing at all.

I'm starting to feel better about an Epi vote than ika. Ika's frustration about all the votes he's getting seems genuine.

Did anyone say... three way tie?

Let's not. Ties are the devil, never mind three way.

I am starting to feel more inclined to vote for Epi, and if I reach a point where I'm confident enough to do that, I will do it.

Is that gonna happen on its own? Are you looking for encouragement?

also why is everyone voting fuzz now wtf i wasnt serious

Enrique votes Fuzz for "no reason", an easy thing to do since Fuzz gave an open invitation for undecided votes to be placed on him. He then engages in talk of ties until the Fuzz CFD picks up and flips out over it, talking about how he doesn't like the looks of it in several more posts after it. In the end he votes for Ika, whose wagon he had said earlier was highly suspicious. Its important to note that at this time he had already requested to be replaced and had talked as if he didn't have the time to be engaged with the game, yet when the Fuzz CFD started up he was in the thick of things trying to stop it.

EVERYONE!!

Can we please start specifying the difference between NK and arrested? If they are different game states (which I think is the case), shit is going to get really confusing down the road if we keep using them interchangeably. Let's not make the game more difficult than needed :P

Well apparently arrests are lynches and they are also the cop version of NK's. Family kills are "hits" but we haven't seen one yet. This answers the question of why the win conditions were properly phrased, but it doesn't answer why we're spending our days trying to get people arrested. Arrests sound like the cop's domain and as I said earlier:



We should be out in the streets gettin shit done instead of helping the cops arrest people. Ain't nobody got time for that.

Sup with all them Gleam votes?

I don't like that Epignosis has 3 votes. I don't like it one bit

Sloonei is supatowning, which means he's either one of our most valuable assets or an undercover cop Only time will tell I suppose. He defended his Nerolunar read really well, but I don't like that he's criticizing Epignosis for not agreeing with his read, as if Nero's civvieness is obvious.

I don't really know who I want to vote for. I'm not a fan of any of the major wagons but don't have strong baddie reads on anyone.

Turnip the reason you should vote for me is so you stop twiddling your thumbs about who to vote for.

Okay Fuzz... I'm doing it....

Turnip head spent the majority of day 2 dissuading people from all of the main lynch choices without providing any real better options. Joined the Fuzz lynch late, which looked to be a case of being cornered into it by his previous comments regarding not wanting to lynch Ika based on his playstyle making that not a really viable option(especially as Fuzz's flip-flop on Ika is the reason his wagon gained steam in the first place) and Fuzz having presented that easy way out at a time when a Fuzz lynch was unlikely.

[Sloonei]

Really, eliminating the double arrest is a "no-brainer." That might also make sense why the the hosts didn't just let Serge's role wallow in unused oblivion. The police need that role active to keep the double-arrest alive. Did there seem to be tension or desperation at all at the time the hosts were looking for a replacement? It could help explain Elohcin's recruitment by Epi- "Please, honey, just fill in for the role. We need the help. You won't even have to post much. You keep the double-arrest chance alive and we'll take care of you."

The hosts have been scrambling for replacements all game long (the existence of all you prisoners probably made it a little more difficult), but things seemed to have settled by the time Elohcin replaced Serge. That one kinda came out of nowhere too. Serge wasn't the most active player in the game, but it's not like he was a non-entity either. I could see it being the case that he was simply struggling to keep up with providing two kills each night. Elohcin certainly would have been easier for Epi to communicate with on that front.

[Phoebe Buffay]

I am in the midst of reading Day 10 forward to now. I'm glad someone suggested it, it helps with the history of whats been happening. I also Iso'd Elohcin - it was so short it took no time at all. It appears she is not really interested in the game which would match with what 813 speculates Epi could have told her about playing (don't have to do much, just keep our double arrest alive). I realize it doesn't match what Epi said about her liking to have bts but maybe she's just is too busy to be into the game. I am leaning toward her currently in my re-read but I have several more 100 post pages to go. I could change my mind after I get through these additional pages.

[Sloonei]

Also of note in the case against Elohcin is this series of events starting around the time she subbed in. Epi proposed a plan to "determine if she's bad or not" by having someone provide a fake read on him and see how she responds to it.

Spoiler: show

I have a test to determine if Eloh is bad or not. Who's in?

This post is what I'm talking about.

Spoiler: show

Eloh, I think, isn't going to click through all these tags. As I said, she's just here.

Therefore:

Spoiler: show

You should build a huge case on me. Vote for me. If Eloh defends me, she's good, If she hedges on me or backs off, she's bad.

Spoiler: show

We'll see tomorrow, but Eloh is definitely not reading the thread. She's been watching TV, talking to her mother, and she booked our vacation that I won from basketball bidding.

I agree with this.

It's obvious now that this plan of Epi's was insincere, so it's reasonable to assume he was trying to frame Eloh in a particular light. As we have been at a crucial stage in the game where a single mislynch means town destruction, if Epi wanted to push for Eloh to be lynched, he could have. And if he didn't feel like resorting to a cheap tactic like that (I doubt he would want to win that way) he could have at least shrugged his shoulders at her and let the townies decide. But instead he chose to set up this entire elaborate plot to read her, and then elected to protect her and tell us all that she's town:

5 votes on Boomslang is not enough for my liking, no sir

One vote on sig is not enough for my liking.

Do you think Eloh not reading the thread reflects on her in any certain way?

Whaddya think of that thing Soneji just did?

Eloh not reading the thread means she doesn't have a team- no one she's going to disappoint. She said herself she was just going to add to the vote number, and I have no reason to doubt that.

Based on this and all the other evidence at the moment, I feel like this was a deliberate attempt by Epi to protect his teammate Elohcin from being lynched.

[Prisoner 509378]

I think we've got 'em, y'all.

[Snapshot]

Okay. He hasn't stated it himself (as per the rules), but Soneji's confidence that ika was the seemer would suggest he is the Stool Pidgeon that ika flipped as, or he wants it to appear that way. I can't right now, but someone needs to check his posts for ika-relevant content to test this theory -- especially the content coming after ika's lynch.

He's not the stool pigeon. He's the other cop. He needs to be lynched after Elochin. Ika was the seemer.

[Sloonei]

Epi's first interaction with Soneji is a dismissal of his case against Mongoose (Dom, confirmed cop):

Somehow I managed to skip a large post by Soneji.

He makes a good point on Mongoose, though in the last quote, I have to say the fact she is asking about how mafia is played here is because she is back after a long hiatus, during which a lot of people from different communities came here and change the usual playstyle.

I understood the context of how she was trying to come across(as naive of possible new habits), its just that the context in which the question was asked(as a prerequisite to a stated desire to vote lynch Ika) is rather scummy. If the question about voting people to get their attention came prior to a vote on Ika/stated desire to vote Ika, I likely wouldn't find the behavior suspicious. Lack of confidence in your own reads is also more indicative of scum, who don't want to be seen as going after the wrong people or having weak reasoning. If Ika's behavior was in any way normal in the community as it is now, people wouldn't have been suspecting him for it as much as they did D1, which should have clued Mongoose in. Even so, she felt the need to be sure that her reasoning was sound in the eyes of others.

Have you ever met Mongoose before?

Then he appears not to say much for a while, thought it's possible I'm missing something. Ctrl + F is not an exact science. When he does say something, it's much later in the game and he's making vague threats against Soneji about schooling him once sig flips bad. Epi obviously knew sig wouldn't flip bad, but whatever.

Spoiler: show

5 votes on Boomslang is not enough for my liking, no sir

One vote on sig is not enough for my liking.

Do you think Eloh not reading the thread reflects on her in any certain way?

Whaddya think of that thing Soneji just did?

Eloh not reading the thread means she doesn't have a team- no one she's going to disappoint. She said herself she was just going to add to the vote number, and I have no reason to doubt that.

Soneji's post initially suggested to me that he's not paying close attention.

I don't see anything really indicative of malicious intent with sig's actions. The Prisoner's argument against Epi is much more indicative of someone whose trying to manipulate things to a specific end.

I thought this post was saying that you, the prisoner, are trying to manipulate things to a specific end. That's why I laughed, given our spoiler talk.

But I see with the follow-up I misunderstood him, and that his comment on sig is linked to the unfortunate syntax that follows it.

Hey Soneji, could you please be a bit more specific about my case against Epignosis -- what about it did you find agreeable? I just need to assess your mindset.

That Epi makes himself out as a big shot yet avoids any matters where he can show his superior knowledge as well as his tendency to avoid direct accusations. That post he made in regards to Enrique about liking it when he can just vote without noticing it threw up some red flags during one of my full read throughs, as has his shifty behavior on tight lynches.

All I've got to say is that if sig is bad, I'm going to show my superior knowledge on Soneji's ass.

Then his 5 person scum team includes soneji along with chaindeath and 3 now-confirmed townies:

Quin, you're not a lynch I would favor in the next day phase. If you name me a gun-to-head cop team (every remaining baddie alive), that will be of interest to me. The same goes for anyone really, though certain people's lists might mean less.

I won't name my own list until I have some participation.

I'll participate.

chaindeath
Nerolunar
Quinn
sig
Soneji

Didn't expect that, did you prisoner?

This is a much lengthier post in which he responds to Soneji's case against him. I think soneji's case itself looks sincere, but my tunnel vision is directing me toward labeling everything soneji does as town at this point. Epi's responses here also seem strained enough for this to be real case. He tries to casually dismiss a number of Soneji's points without really engaging anything, suggesting to me that the case is legitimate and Epi didn't have any real way to diffuse it, so he just tried to brush Soneji himself off as an accuser.

New idea.

Soneji wants me lynched.

Soneji hasn't voted me.

Soneji

Why wasn't your vote on me?

OMGUS on Day 9.

There's quite a bit more between Epi and Soneji from recent days if anyone wants to dig through it, but my mind is practically made up now. Soneji and Epi are not teammates. Elohcin and chaindeath are the two remaining cops. I'd still love to hear from anyone who disagrees with me on this. I am confident about these reads, but the game is not over yet.

[Gunther]

So shall I halt my re-read if it's all settled? I'd be lying if I said I had plenty of time for it.

Linki: Do 126's assertions give anyone pause? He seems awfully sure of himself.

[Sloonei]

I think we've got 'em, y'all.

concur

[Sloonei]

So shall I halt my re-read if it's all settled? I'd be lying if I said I had plenty of time for it.

Linki: Do 126's assertions give anyone pause? He seems awfully sure of himself.

I do not know 126's true identity and at the moment I'm not putting much stock in that post. What can you tell us about 126's behavior in prison?

[Snapshot]

Soneji's plan is to throw Elochin under the bus, call out Ika as the seemer because he knows that is the case, and try to mislynch chaindeath for the win. Will you guys listen to me this time and lynch correctly?

[Sloonei]

Okay. He hasn't stated it himself (as per the rules), but Soneji's confidence that ika was the seemer would suggest he is the Stool Pidgeon that ika flipped as, or he wants it to appear that way. I can't right now, but someone needs to check his posts for ika-relevant content to test this theory -- especially the content coming after ika's lynch.

He's not the stool pigeon. He's the other cop. He needs to be lynched after Elochin. Ika was the seemer.

Soneji's plan is to throw Elochin under the bus, call out Ika as the seemer because he knows that is the case, and try to mislynch chaindeath for the win. Will you guys listen to me this time and lynch correctly?

???

also a reminder that there are two of each role. ika flipped as the Daisy stool pigeon.

[Sloonei]

Why should we trust you, 126993?

[Prisoner 509378]

As a prisoner I cannot say who 126 is, but there are only two options. If it's the town option, then we need to hear him/her out.

[Gunther]

So shall I halt my re-read if it's all settled? I'd be lying if I said I had plenty of time for it.

Linki: Do 126's assertions give anyone pause? He seems awfully sure of himself.

I do not know 126's true identity and at the moment I'm not putting much stock in that post. What can you tell us about 126's behavior in prison?

Again, I am waiting on the host's to let me know how much of my notes I can reveal (arrival times for instance). My notes show at least minimal participation in a couple of challenges, though I cannot speak to their participation in the Day 9 or Day 11 challenge, as they were not grouped with me.

One thing I can say is that it may be worth going back to Day 5 to see which prisoners were in the initial prison break and which were not. I think 509 (and perhaps the rest of you) might have a little more confidence in those of us who were around for the first one. I am not sure if I can say any more on that without getting myself "modkilled."

[Prisoner 509378]

Silverwolf once said she knew ika was the seemer for "reasons". I thought this might indicate that she was the stool pigeon. She didn't initially jump on him being the seemer which would confuse me if she has his fake role -- but Soneji didn't either.

[Sloonei]

My first thought based on the tone and vocabulary of 126's posts is that they are Silverwolf.

[Gunther]

My first thought based on the tone and vocabulary of 126's posts is that they are Silverwolf.

Would that change your opinion on Soneji at all?

[Prisoner 509378]

My first thought based on the tone and vocabulary of 126's posts is that they are Silverwolf.

I can't comment. We should be wary of Epi or even ika playing the actor, but not to the point of paranoia.

If you're right that 126 is Silverwolf (I offer no opinion on that), then 126 must be taken seriously. If she was the stool pigeon, then Soneji is definitely a cop and all prior town reading is irrelevant.

[Sloonei]

My first thought based on the tone and vocabulary of 126's posts is that they are Silverwolf.

Would that change your opinion on Soneji at all?

A little bit. It would raise a few questions, at least.

[Prisoner 509378]

At the very least it greatly simplifies the matter of reading Soneji. There's no reason to care how town he "looks", because there can be no doubt he wanted to be viewed as the stool pigeon. If that's true, he's good. If Silverwolf was the stool pigeon, then there is no possible town explanation for Soneji's deception and he's a cop.

[Ned Flanders]

I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.

[Prisoner 509378]

I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.

Why?

[Ned Flanders]

I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.

Why?

Are there any reasons to think she was the stool pigeon beyond her claiming to know ika was the seemer?

[Sloonei]

So shall I halt my re-read if it's all settled? I'd be lying if I said I had plenty of time for it.

Linki: Do 126's assertions give anyone pause? He seems awfully sure of himself.

I do not know 126's true identity and at the moment I'm not putting much stock in that post. What can you tell us about 126's behavior in prison?

Again, I am waiting on the host's to let me know how much of my notes I can reveal (arrival times for instance). My notes show at least minimal participation in a couple of challenges, though I cannot speak to their participation in the Day 9 or Day 11 challenge, as they were not grouped with me.

One thing I can say is that it may be worth going back to Day 5 to see which prisoners were in the initial prison break and which were not. I think 509 (and perhaps the rest of you) might have a little more confidence in those of us who were around for the first one. I am not sure if I can say any more on that without getting myself "modkilled."

This post at least implies we can rule Epi out as being Prisoner 126.

[Celeste]

Very well. You know the first three challenges, but I'll give the full recap:

Day 2: Everyone had to post at least five times but everyone had to post once before anyone could post a second time and so on. Victory

Day 3: Decoding the secret text with only 4 or 5 letters to guide us. Victory

Day 4: We had to match at least 10 of 15 quotes to the players who said them in the "game thread." Victory

Day 5: Either this or this depending on your musical preference.

Now for the ones you missed out on:

Day 6: Each time someone posted it reset a 30-minute timer. If 30 minutes went by without someone posting, we would fail. Victory

Day 7: Same concept as Day 6, except it was a 10-minute timer. The hosts expected us to concede but we refused to yield and managed to generate almost 2,000 posts in 48 hours, a feat which will not soon be forgotten by those of us who lost sleep over this one. Victory

Day 8: Every player had to post at least five times in a different language. No one could use the same language and English was prohibited. Thanks to two non-participating prisoners who have since been shanked, we lost this very winnable challenge. Failure

Day 9: The prison population was divided into two groups. Group 1 was asked one question at a time. Group 2 started with $500 and had to wager between $0 and $100 on how we thought Group 1 would answer. Purely guesswork and we came up short. Failure

Day 10: The shank poll had to be a unanimous decision and all prisoners had to vote in order to succeed. Prisoner 331347 was gracious enough to vote for himself another prisoner failed to show up and vote. We lost the challenge but 331347 was still shanked. Failure

Day 11: We were all split up into pairs and got to chit-chat for a day. During the night, one player in the pair was asked questions and the other had to guess their answers. The prison population had to average 20 out of 25 questions correct to win. I was pleasantly surprised to see us win that one, bringing us here today. Victory

Well done partner.

I wish I could have been more helpful for the high-posting challenges on Days 6 & 7, but I had extremely limited access.

[Celeste]

I understand you 413. At this point everything is process of elimination. If Eloh is not a cop, then Soneji and chaindeath must be. I'd recommend exploring their ISOs to see how you feel about that.

Well if chaindeath is not a cop, then Elohcin or Soneji must be, right?

If chaindeath is not a cop, then Elohcin and Soneji must be. It works in any order. If you think one possibility is more likely than the others, then by all means share your rationale.

I agree, that's why I was offering an alternate scenario for you.

[Prisoner 509378]

I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.

Why?

Are there any reasons to think she was the stool pigeon beyond her claiming to know ika was the seemer?

That alone is a decent reason. She was also totally insistent about it.

Are there any reasons not to that don't also apply to Soneji?

[Sloonei]

Who would we all prefer to lynch between Elohcin and chaindeath? Even if soneji is a cop, one of those other two has to also be a cop.

[Celeste]

I'm voting for Elohcin because y'all seem pretty positive.

I don't know much about Soneji, but I wouldn't mind lynching him.

I don't want to lynch Prisoner 509, because that seems fruitless.

I'd buy chaindeath a drink for making it to Day 12 alive in his first game back in 3 years.

I would make friends with Sloonei and Turnip Head because they are fun folks.

[Ned Flanders]

I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.

Why?

Are there any reasons to think she was the stool pigeon beyond her claiming to know ika was the seemer?

That alone is a decent reason. She was also totally insistent about it.

Are there any reasons not to that don't also apply to Soneji?

With most players that would be a decent reason, but given their relationship I don't think it is, especially because she was so insistent about it. Silverwolf and ika have proven themselves to be extremely insistent defenders of each other in multiple games, and while you could (and they often have) make the argument that their experience with each other helps back up their defense, I think their love clouds their ability to be objective with reading each other. Not a slight to them whatsoever, I'm just saying that I would take their reads of each other (and this includes role speculation) with a grain of salt at best.

I don't know about Soneji.

[Ned Flanders]

I'm voting for Elohcin because y'all seem pretty positive.

Same here.

[Saito]

Yay we broke out.

[Sloonei]

I'm voting for Elohcin because y'all seem pretty positive.

Same here.

We're not. There is still plenty to discuss.

[Young Lady]

Who should I vote?

[Ned Flanders]

I'm voting for Elohcin because y'all seem pretty positive.

Same here.

We're not. There is still plenty to discuss.

Don't sweat it, if the tide changes and I like where it changes then I'll change my vote.

[Gunther]

Who would we all prefer to lynch between Elohcin and chaindeath? Even if soneji is a cop, one of those other two has to also be a cop.

If we're sure that Elohcin is police, I say we lynch her. Here's why:

At this point, the double-arrest is effectively off the table. If, as is speculated by some, that Turnip Head and Sloonei are the dons, then there would only be three players remaining after the lynch that can be arrested: chaindeath, Prisoner 509378, and Soneji. One of them is the cop, so pulling a double-arrest will single them out. Now, if they HAVE to put in the double-arrest request, then there's a chance you folks will catch a lucky break and have the final cop handed to you on a "silver platter." If the Chief does not HAVE to place a double-request, then they won't for that very reason.

If it's chaindeath of Soneji, then that means that Prisoner 509378 is the only candidate for their arrest tonight. Are there any protection powers or team kill powers believed to still be in existence to protect 509? If so, you'll all (excepting Elohcin) still be around tomorrow to continue on with this discussion.