Downton Abbey Mafia (ENDGAME)

#1801

What do you think of Elsie>?

#1802

Epignosis wrote:
Dom wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I have already gone through Scotty's posts. I would consider voting there based on my analysis, although the Wilgy business gives me pause.

Thankfully no one silenced me, so I am able to examine everybody else I am considering voting. Once again, I'll take Lady Edith's advice and begin there.
Lady Edith is gravely mistaken about me, and I hope to show it to you.
And Edith implied that I'm not very good or experienced, so it would appear we both have a grievance with her ladyship.

Well, that's certainly an opinion I don't share. The fact that you are good and experienced makes me distrust you.

#1803

At thirty-five posts, Sorsha will be the easiest place to begin.

Sorsha's first interaction is with ika, and is about ika's methods of catching mafia and policy lynches. That's five of her first six posts, or 14% of her total activity.

Her second interaction is with Silverwolf, expressing disagreement with her MM vote. That's the next three posts.

After briefly questioning thellama73 on what constitutes filler, Sorsha balks at the exchange between birdwithteeth11 and DFaraday, mother and son, respectively.

She answered Scotty's question about birdwithteeth11 in AWR or Recruitment, whichever it was.

Ultimately, Sorsha missed the Day 1 vote.

Sorsha's Day 2 activity consists of questions, a vote on Bubbles, and a response to a criticism from Long Con about low-hanging fruit.

Sorsha laments voting Bubbles, and says she didn't know bea was replacing in. I believe this: Sorsha didn't post at all after her Bubbles vote, and wasn't around when bea got replaced.

Sorsha laments being busy* and tired, says she trusts thellama73 and Scotty, and would consider voting spacedaisy (who was good). She doesn't get why Lorab is getting votes. She ultimately votes Long Con because of "gut," completely out of the Lorab / spacedaisy lynch (that sadly went to DFaraday).

*(Thank God I proofread- I had originally typed out "busty."

)

Sorsha claims to have misread the doctor's role, which is believable, given that the doctor is a stopper, not a switcher.

Sorsha confesses to being busy in Spirited Away (where she was bad, working to put the final nail in the coffin for the civilians). She says she'd vote Bubbles over again and that she would devote more time to this after Spirited Away (a promise I don't think she's kept).

Day 4 she voted herself and vanished.

Day 5 she voted Nerolunar, commented that she could also vote ika, and vanished.

++++

I don't see anything here beyond laziness that makes me want to lynch Sorsha. She had 72 posts in Spirited Away, and that lasted eight phases. We're in the sixth, and she's at half that number. Perhaps I'm being naive, but if Sorsha were bad here, I don't think she'd be this lazy.

Moving on.

#1804

Dom wrote:What do you think of Elsie>?

Well, he was my very first suspect in Downton.

Wait, no that was you.

Relax. I'll get to him (and you).

#1805

RIP sig

Epignosis wrote:
Silenced persons:

ika
Scotty

People okay with lynching me as of right now even though I was not on the poll Day 5 (and/or were taken off the poll themselves):

ika
Scotty
thellama73
Matt
Epignosis
Black Rock
The first group cannot be Mrs. Patmore. The second group cannot be Mrs. Hughes.

ika and Scotty fall into both categories, meaning it is more probable that they are bad than everybody else. With thirteen living and three bad, at first glance, everyone has a 23% chance of being bad. However, ika and Scotty have a 27% chance of being bad.

Assuming a successful kill on someone other than Scotty or ika, that puts the percentages at 25% and 30%, respectively.

If you are a civilian, that puts the percentages at 27% and 33%, respectively.

If you believe sig is good, as I do, that puts the percentages at 30% and 38%, respectively.

Resorting solely to statistics is a terrible way to frame the next lynches. You're disregarding all content and intuition and leaving it to your spreadsheet, which is only part of the equation.

In roulette, by placing a singular bet on red, there's a 47% chance you will hit red. Every time.
But this isn't roulette. It's poker. You account for your odds, sure, but in the end based purely on the hubris of thinking a person has a specific set of cards will lose you hands more often than not.

I'm about to do a show so I don't have the time to properly respond to your exhaustive smear campaign against me, but it makes sense to me. This is probably your longest "case" against anyone so far this game, and it comes on the heels of the person that is trying to show the magician for what he really is: a framer.

Before I forget: ika could very well be good. I saw somewhere in there that you said ika and I could be on the same team. Ok.

Let's lynch you then. I was fully ready to lynch him yesterday, but the more I think about it, any kind of case I will make against you is going to be squashed. Why? You're probably a better arguer than I. Can't be helped. You setting up another case against me is the last straw, however. I know I am good, and so far your cases have been fruitless. You have a sort of arrogance, if I may be so bold, in that you are headed in a correct direction. This could be a civ trait, but I view it more and more as a man with a mission to steer the thread. And I think that is dangerous the longer we go on.

Also I think the case you just made about Sorsha makes her look bad, not good, like you concluded.

#1806

vote Epi

#1807

Scotty wrote:vote Epi

#1808

Scotty wrote:i still want to vote ika before you, especially since you think he is civ.

#1809

Scotty wrote:RIP sig

Epignosis wrote:
Silenced persons:

ika
Scotty

People okay with lynching me as of right now even though I was not on the poll Day 5 (and/or were taken off the poll themselves):

ika
Scotty
thellama73
Matt
Epignosis
Black Rock
The first group cannot be Mrs. Patmore. The second group cannot be Mrs. Hughes.

ika and Scotty fall into both categories, meaning it is more probable that they are bad than everybody else. With thirteen living and three bad, at first glance, everyone has a 23% chance of being bad. However, ika and Scotty have a 27% chance of being bad.

Assuming a successful kill on someone other than Scotty or ika, that puts the percentages at 25% and 30%, respectively.

If you are a civilian, that puts the percentages at 27% and 33%, respectively.

If you believe sig is good, as I do, that puts the percentages at 30% and 38%, respectively.
Resorting solely to statistics is a terrible way to frame the next lynches. You're disregarding all content and intuition and leaving it to your spreadsheet, which is only part of the equation.

In roulette, by placing a singular bet on red, there's a 47% chance you will hit red. Every time.
But this isn't roulette. It's poker. You account for your odds, sure, but in the end based purely on the hubris of thinking a person has a specific set of cards will lose you hands more often than not.

I'm about to do a show so I don't have the time to properly respond to your exhaustive smear campaign against me, but it makes sense to me. This is probably your longest "case" against anyone so far this game, and it comes on the heels of the person that is trying to show the magician for what he really is: a framer.

Before I forget: ika could very well be good. I saw somewhere in there that you said ika and I could be on the same team. Ok.

Let's lynch you then. I was fully ready to lynch him yesterday, but the more I think about it, any kind of case I will make against you is going to be squashed. Why? You're probably a better arguer than I. Can't be helped. You setting up another case against me is the last straw, however. I know I am good, and so far your cases have been fruitless. You have a sort of arrogance, if I may be so bold, in that you are headed in a correct direction. This could be a civ trait, but I view it more and more as a man with a mission to steer the thread. And I think that is dangerous the longer we go on.

Also I think the case you just made about Sorsha makes her look bad, not good, like you concluded.

Well let's lynch me then, and see where that gets you.

#1810

And I'm steering the thread because nobody else will. I view steering the thread as a civilian trait, not a bad one. So get out of here with that.

#1811

Of twelve voters, I believe I can expect Matt's, so I will have four total. There's still eight votes beyond those, so I am not going to sweat this.

#1812

I'm going to carry on with my investigation. I'm alive, not silenced, and eager to get mafia this go around. I have to cook first though.

#1813

Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?

#1814

Epignosis wrote:And I'm steering the thread because nobody else will. I view steering the thread as a civilian trait, not a bad one. So get out of here with that.

Just becasue you think X does not mean we should think X

when someone leads mutiple leads that are wgon (aka you epi) people have rights to think it could eb scum

i mena you said yourself "let lynch you (epi)" so why dont you self vote?

#1815

Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?

why does that matter?

#1816

ika wrote:
Epignosis wrote:And I'm steering the thread because nobody else will. I view steering the thread as a civilian trait, not a bad one. So get out of here with that.
Just becasue you think X does not mean we should think X

when someone leads mutiple leads that are wgon (aka you epi) people have rights to think it could eb scum

i mena you said yourself "let lynch you (epi)" so why dont you self vote?

Because I'm not someone keen on losing.

#1817

ika wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?
why does that matter?

Why indeed?

#1818

If you're keen on the math angle,

Epignosis
3
thellama73 (2), ika (3), Scotty (5)
60%

None of these clowns are Lady Edith.

#1819

Epignosis wrote:Of twelve voters, I believe I can expect Matt's, so I will have four total. There's still eight votes beyond those, so I am not going to sweat this.

Why do you believe that? I thought you said you were paying attention.

Placement vote on Illy

MM - I think you knew exactly what I meant when I said Illy didn't vote for civs on Days 1 and 2, so I wonder what your game is. You're better then that as a civvie, or no?

#1820

Who's off the poll today? Anyone?

Also, next phase, someone should take me off the poll cuz I'm totes good k thanks.

#1821

Matt wrote:Who's off the poll today? Anyone?

Also, next phase, someone should take me off the poll cuz I'm totes good k thanks.

What do you think of those who have been taken off the poll?

#1822

For reference: Epi, ika, Black Rock, Epi, nobody.

#1823

Despite Lady Edith's wishes, Matt is up next.

I'm going to make this simple. I've gone through Matt's posts and they are everything I expect of Matt being Matt. I also have a role in mind for him.

I don't plan on voting him today. Maybe another Day, but not this one.

Moving on.

#1824

I'm going to also have to reevaluate thellama73.

His vote on me today isn't what I was expecting, so he's going to get the treatment too.

#1825

Epignosis wrote:I'm going to also have to reevaluate thellama73.

His vote on me today isn't what I was expecting, so he's going to get the treatment too.

Yeah, host question asked and answered.

Logan is getting the fullness of my wrathful investigation.

#1826

Epignosis wrote:If you're keen on the math angle,

Epignosis
3
thellama73 (2), ika (3), Scotty (5)
60%

None of these clowns are Lady Edith.

doesnt change the odds of someone being scum.

and i mean if you want to be tecnical, lady edith could be bm to vote you anyways

#1827

ika wrote:
Epignosis wrote:If you're keen on the math angle,

Epignosis
3
thellama73 (2), ika (3), Scotty (5)
60%

None of these clowns are Lady Edith.
doesnt change the odds of someone being scum.

and i mean if you want to be tecnical, lady edith could be bm to vote you anyways

Can you please try to make sense?

#1828

Epignosis wrote:For reference: Epi, ika, Black Rock, Epi, nobody.

Thanks for reminding me of this- this is actually why I initially doubled back on my suspicion of you after day 1. I promise I'm not going to tunnel on you this entire phase, Epi. Edith does have a point to look at the ones that haven't been talking much.

I also believe Black Rock is good, on an unrelated note

#1829

Epignosis wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm going to also have to reevaluate thellama73.

His vote on me today isn't what I was expecting, so he's going to get the treatment too.
Yeah, host question asked and answered.

Logan is getting the fullness of my wrathful investigation.

What? Who is Logan? What question? And if you can't repeat the question in the thread, then why even bring it up?

#1830

99 posts.

thellama73 rolls out with a funny accusation of ika and a semi-serious defense of me (agreeing with spacedaisy). After that, llama goes back and forth with ika.

He accuses DF of filler (DF was good). In the same breath, he would vote for Wilgy. He argues with Polo about No lynches.

thellama73 wrote:I guess we can rule out Ika as being mafia, then, can't we?

No, we can't. thellama73 has no opinion about this since.

thellama73 wrote:
sig wrote:I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.
This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.

Did Logan expect MCS to reveal ika killing Silverwolf? I don't think so.

thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
sig wrote:I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.
This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.
Isn't that the idea that you supported in the first place?
Yes, I've always said I don't think Ika capable of killing Silver N1. So I don't see how the kill frames him, as Sig suggests.

Uh-huh.

thellama73 wrote:I had hoped that the votes on Matt were merely attempts to get his attention, and not serious attempts to kill him, but as the day nears an end, I'm not so sure.

Come on guys, do you really think a baddie Matt with teammates would just ignore the thread and let himself be lynched? I feel certain he will flip civ is this bandwagon doesn't change direction.

As for me, I'm joining the DFaraday group, since I find him more suspicious than Matt by a long shot.

Defends Matt and votes DF.

thellama73 wrote:
Scotty wrote: Llama: I don't like llama coming out brazenly and latching onto a Nero lynch, not expanding on it, and then changing to Bubbles at the end. Could he really have something on Nero and want to stave it off until a time he can really peg him, and ultimately just jumped on a suspicion of someone else? Llama is a null leaaaaaaning civ read for me.
Oh yeah, I can explain this now. I noticed Nero had been quiet for a while and I wanted to provoke him into coming out. I wanted to see how he would react to an unexplained vote. Sometimes you can get good reads on people by seeing how they react to an unexpected attack. His response didn't really ping me though, so I let it go.

Scotty and llama are voting me.

thellama73 wrote:
ika wrote:so im removed from lycnh todday and doc pulled off a save.

nice

scotty i seocnd that why lorab why not dom or daisy or something like that i need to read your lsit again
Why would anyone remove you from the lynch poll? No one is even thinking about lynching you, are they?

Why would they?

thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Black Rock wrote:Where do you stand with MM Epig? I didn't really understand what your conclusion was.
If people wanted to lynch MM at this stage, they're not going to get any mileage out of his posts- there's a relatively high number of posts, but they've all been, as it were, poking from the perimeter.

That's what I'm saying.
I always have a low-level wanting to lynch MM, but I would much rather lynch Daisy. Long Con should join me in this, since he has ben talking the most sense of anyone lately.

Daisy's dead.

thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Why do you want to lynch Spacedaisy? I find her presence in this game reassuring.
A couple of reasons.
1) she's led us away from a DFaraday lynch, towards two civilian lynches. This in itself is not very compelling. I've done the same thing myself in many a game. But there's also...
2) Her "lynch DFaraday and then come after me if he's bad" gambit, feels like a setup. I think she knows he will flip good, which is why she made the offer.
3) Her repeated use of some variation of the phrase "suspect me all you want" feels false to me, especially given that she has reacted more strongly to my suspicion of her than I would have expected. It feels like she is trying to act like she doesn't care about being suspected, but she actually cares a lot, and that seems like a baddie move to me.

Nah.

thellama73 is a suspect again for me.

#1831

ika wrote:
Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).

SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
its green silver is messgin around.

so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?

What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.

#1832

Epignosis wrote:Scotty, do you think your own posts make you look good or bad?

I don't think about the consequences of posting things sometimes, so that's for town to decide. I'm good, so I can only speak of how I perceive myself.

Is that helpful?

#1833

Long Con wrote:JBIFAUHLZMWHDYDRWTT

Well, the insanifier is alive and well.

#1834

Matt wrote:
ika wrote:
Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).

SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
its green silver is messgin around.

so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?
What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.

in signups people seemed to welcome her back i was asking her about that

#1835

ika wrote:
Matt wrote:
ika wrote:
Illyria wrote:
Okay, I am going to need to have SVS back that up because I do love me some off topic chat (Sorry Siliver, I dont know you, and in game I dont trust anyone).

SVS? Off topic green is still the same??
its green silver is messgin around.

so it seems that you are a known player here too. care to fill us in on that?
What does this mean ika? Your question to Illy.
in signups people seemed to welcome her back i was asking her about that

Why didn't you ask her about it in signups when you originally saw peeps welcoming her back?

#1836

I'm going to withdraw my question. It looks like the game started very shortly after everyone was welcoming Illy back.

Hrm.

#1837

Matt wrote:I'm going to withdraw my question. It looks like the game started very shortly after everyone was welcoming Illy back.

Hrm.

even if the game has started like a week later, it wouldnt of made a difference. something like that i always ask in game.

#1838

On Day 1, before the BWT flip, Illy was discussing her options...

Illyria wrote:I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.

How do you know if you were reading him right before he flipped? Aaaand also neither this sentence or the post I lifted it from even tells us how you were reading him. Weird.

#1839

Damn, I should really ISO her completely before I make comments. Apparently Llama asks the same question I do...

Illyria wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?

Or did you know his alignment after all?
No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.

Also, what name did you call me?

Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.

I'm gonna continue to look through her posts, any other questions I have I'll put all in one post.

What does everyone think of Black Rock?

#1840

Matt wrote:Damn, I should really ISO her completely before I make comments. Apparently Llama asks the same question I do...

Illyria wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?

Or did you know his alignment after all?
No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.

Also, what name did you call me?
Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.

I'm gonna continue to look through her posts, any other questions I have I'll put all in one post.

What does everyone think of Black Rock?

Black Rock and Illyria are civilians. Move on.

#1841

Illyria wrote:
Dom wrote:
Illyria wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?

Or did you know his alignment after all?
No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.

Also, what name did you call me?
How did you know if you read him right though?
Because I could not decide where he fell, and I know BWT (or did) he was the only player that I knew upon whom I was waffling. I have the new to me people in a ??? category right now until I get a better feel for them as we go.

Hahahaha. So again, Dom also asked the same question Llama did and I eventually would a few weeks later.

Weird because here Illy says BWT was the only player that she knew "upon whom she was waffling", and yet...in that same post where she makes the BWT comment, here's what she says about DFaraday, Dom and Long Con (I think she knows LC and Dom, and I'm assuming she knows DFaraday from the Lost boards?)...

Illyria wrote:I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.

D Faraday I am not sure.

Dom, you have been making my eyebrow crick for the last day-- to be fair I can not tell if there are still the vestiges of the puppy in there or if it is something else.

LC... I.. am not sure... but I worry. I have yet to dileneate if that is from Mafias Past or this one.

Seems pretty waffly on all of them...?

It just seems like...lies. And I dunno why she would lie about only being waffly on one player she actually knew, when in fact she was waffly on four of them, maybe nervous? Looking for an explanation to the question that Llama and Dom both posed to her..."how do you know you were reading BWT wrong?"

Hrm.

LINKI

Epig, I think you da bomb, and you're a way better player then I, however you have been leading lynches against civs left and right so why should anyone trust you on that?

#1842

Epignosis wrote:
Dom wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I have already gone through Scotty's posts. I would consider voting there based on my analysis, although the Wilgy business gives me pause.

Thankfully no one silenced me, so I am able to examine everybody else I am considering voting. Once again, I'll take Lady Edith's advice and begin there.
Lady Edith is gravely mistaken about me, and I hope to show it to you.
And Edith implied that I'm not very good or experienced, so it would appear we both have a grievance with her ladyship.

Maybe she just considers you a civilian.

#1843

Matt wrote:Damn, I should really ISO her completely before I make comments. Apparently Llama asks the same question I do...

Illyria wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Illyria wrote: I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.
This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?

Or did you know his alignment after all?
No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.

Also, what name did you call me?
Still, I'm gettin' the heebies from Illy really bad.

I'm gonna continue to look through her posts, any other questions I have I'll put all in one post.

What does everyone think of Black Rock?

Black Rock is a civilian.
This is why I think Matt is good.
Even though I doubt I have mentioned him before, I just came up with this opinion.

#1844

Matt wrote:Epig, I think you da bomb, and you're a way better player then I, however you have been leading lynches against civs left and right so why should anyone trust you on that?

I'm the only one leading, man.

#1845

BR I think you're the best so thanks for making me feel guilty right before I make a post attempting to link you and Illy as being in evil cahoots.

#1846

Black Rock's writing looks like Lady Edith's, so I'm going to surpass going over her.

#1847

Observe Illy's reactions to a few players she hasn't seen for a bit...

To Lorab

Illyria wrote:Also, HAHAHAHAHA I totally forgot that you did that!!! How are you??

To Dom

Illyria wrote:DOOOOMMMMMMMM!! OMG, how are you cutie?

To Long Con

Illyria wrote:THAT WAS MY BEST DEATH OF ALL TIME. I am sad I missed them as well, I have always loved playing in your games. It is so good to see your name pop up. Geez y'all are making my black and scarred heart feel all funny.

Now, in these instances, Illy is totes psyched to see these peeps and cannot contain her excitement. Now, let us see her reaction to Black Rock...

Illyria wrote:
Black Rock wrote:I'm late to the party again. I will go read. I'm a Debbie Downer today so I probably won't be on the forum much tonight.

Okay. Okay we got a hug smiley. That's okay.

In that same post, she also replies to a few other Black Rock comments...

Illyria wrote:
Black Rock wrote:Seeing Illy play has brought my mood up. I like the return of old Mafia friends. I thought I'd never see her again.
Awww shug. I had to bail for a few to get some learnin done.

Okay. Okay then.

And when talking about Dom and whether he plays the same...

Illyria wrote:
Black Rock wrote:I can help with my opinion. For the most part yes. He's much more sneakier. Sometimes I think he falls back into habits but no one believes me when he does.
Huh. Okay good to know, thanks BR.

Huh. Good to know.

Were Illy and BR enemies back in the day or does anyone else think they already did their catch up in a little thing I like to call btsc?

#1848

Epignosis wrote:
Matt wrote:Epig, I think you da bomb, and you're a way better player then I, however you have been leading lynches against civs left and right so why should anyone trust you on that?
I'm the only one leading, man.

i think sevral others were trying but you keep basicly going "No"

#1849

Matt, I don't think I'd buy what you're seeling but Black Rock and Illy are not enemies, no.

#1850

Dom wrote:Matt, I don't think I'd buy what you're seeling but Black Rock and Illy are not enemies, no.

Yeah, I was kidding about them being enemies obvi.

You don't think you'd buy it, tho? How long until you decide if you'll actually buy it or not?

Who among you is of the terrible sort?