Classic Super Mario Bros. [Endgame]

#851

Bullzeye wrote:
agleaminranks wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
Roxy wrote:
i didnt know what to choose either so inread the roles and noticed sev eral baddies votes will count as 4 if we are in a water area/land. so hence my wondering about water voters.
Do we know what's even going on with the baddie roles? There seem to be far too many, and most have a price by them.
I'm looking at the roles right now, and these are my thoughts:

It seems as though the baddie team consists of Bowser and three baddie minions, who have the ability to buy their role with the coins they have. Since this is only the first day and no one really would have any money at this point, the three baddies chose the Goomba role, hence why Rob would post that the baddies today are Bowser and three Goombas. I'll bet when we see the game move on, we will see those roles change.

I'm also guessing that if the host uses this format for each day post, we'll be able to find out soon enough if a baddie is killed in a lynch or night kill turn.
Ah that makes sense. Thanks for clearing that up! Good point as well that we'll know if baddies are killed at night by the number of pictures shown. If Epi continues to show them that is, maybe for whatever reason later on he'll decide to keep them secret or something.

This is the first thing I noticed. Makes me wonder if Bullz was hoping that the baddie pictures would at some point not be shown. His voting record is gleam, nev, llama, missed vote. Now all three of these people are dead, but only gleam was actually lynched. The missed vote gets me more, wouldnt you be less worried about missing a vote if you knew Birdo was going to lynch llama?

Bullz also pointed out that Bowser has only one NK. I had just assumed this was one a night, but it appears to be just one for the game. So, why was it used so quickly on Nev? The fact that Bullz pointed this out so quickly makes me wonder too. Another question that comes up is Bullz coin vote. He voted for Russ with the civ claim again and then randomized for Elohcin. Nobody else randomized their coin votes did they?? This actually leads me to think a Russ or Elohcin vote is not a bad idea either.

After reading through Bullz, I definitely find him more likely mafia than Roxy at this point. I am most inclined towards a Bullz vote today, but still have some reading to do.

#852

That's pretty good stuff there, Hedgie.

I'd like to give Bullz plenty of time to respond before I make a decision. I'll try to hold out until noon-thirty, but I have to be somewhere @ 1, so can't keep it too close to the wire.

#853

I am voting Elo. I think I might have a feel for teammates, but first to get past this. I did not play MOTU, but followed closely being the Mod, and her post tone here is so different from that that along with her total lack of actual reasons for her suspicions is sending back down Elos way.

#854

MovingPictures07 wrote:
- More than a few were chiming in that Russ 'seemed civvie' without giving much reason at all, and he received the most votes of anyone during the night minigame to receive coins, even though we have no idea of knowing his alignment. The way that poll went down still bothers me for that reason. That's another strike against Elo as well, that some seemed so willing to give her coins -- especially since it's not even like with llama where his role seemed able to be deduced, even if there was possibly another option, occam's razor suggests an explanation for him. I don't see any such one for players giving trust to Elo or Russ. If it's because they seem 'helpful', they both always seem that way, IMO.

- There's no denying that Russ was perhaps trying to claim the Giant King role, and I do not believe that to be true based on how votes have gone down.

- His reasons for his votes seems off and is far from satisfactory to me, especially his bandwagon onto LT and ever since his initial voting for me on Day 1 and then backing off. Again, this is another item that applies to Elo. I still don't get how anyone could tell LT's alignment based on what she was saying and it baffles me that others found her arguments persuasive.

Dear God. Test is over and I'm not frozen anymore, so here goes. Hi again, everyone!

I'll start by addressing the "case" against me.

First off, thank you, MP, for summarizing so succinctly. I have no reply to your first bullet point. I don't know why people would think I was civ more than others, and I'm also not really sure why them thinking that makes me bad. I do try to be helpful, as you mentioned, but beyond that I'm as lost as you.

Once again, I was IN NO WAY, EVER trying to claim the Giant King role. I was simply trying to engage in in-game banter, something I thought I had been doing too little of. Again, I cannot be blamed for other people's perceptions. I never ever meant it to seem like I was the Giant King, but I don't think it's fair to blame me that people assumed that. I even stated a while back when Nev first brought this up that I am not him.

Can we please stop using jargony terms for my vote? Rox calling it a drive-by really pisses me off, to be honest. Bandwagon at least makes sense, even if it's wrong. I did arrive online 8 minutes before the poll closed, and used 5 of those minutes weighing cases. I decided that it was best to vote before posting because I have heard of people being caught in linkitis and missing polls. I think Rox has complained of this, ironically. I think it's craven and useless to throw a vote on a player who has no chance of being lynched if 2 candidates are leading the poll and it's last minute like that. I felt (and still feel) better about Elo than LT, so I voted for LT. I then IMMEDIATELY wrote a post explaining my vote for everyone to see. The only reason this farce of a case exists is because Roxy managed to type "Hey, Russti voted." before I finished writing my case. Roxy actually seems mad at me about the case on LT, which is based on her World Map vote from the day before that lynch. Personally, I can't think of any reason for Roxy to be going after me like this unless she was mad because I put her teammate in the lead for the vote. (You'll notice if you read the poll that she was very quick to tie it back up.)

Another post coming with my current suspicions.

#855

Dude you are channeling Johnnie Cochran tonight. Love it.

#856

Ok, my current suspect list. Obviously, as mentioned, I think that LT and Roxy are likely bad. LT because of her strange, un-civ-friendly World Map vote, which I admitted at the time of my vote was a bit weak by itself (but better than the case on Elo). Roxy's strong defense of LT and subsequent attack on me makes me think it's more likely that LT is bad, and that those two are likely teammates.

I think the third piece of the puzzle is S~V~S. I was getting weird feelings from her as early as Day 2, when she repeatedly seemed to misunderstand Nev's stated reason for voting Gleam on Day 1 despite multiple explanations by him. This struck me as strange because LT has seemed highly intelligent to me in every game we've played, and Nev's point was very clear to me and a few others at the time. (Mongoose, maybe? I don't remember exactly.) For reference, http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=192&p=27531#p27531 is an excerpt from their back-and-forth, where S~V~S mentions how good she is at reading people. I hope that link works right.

She also voted only for Snow and Gleam in the Coin Poll on Day 2. Despite having a good gut and being great at reading people, she can't even pick 2 people who are somewhat likely to be civ and vote them? Sounds fishy to me. Not to mention, as others have previously pointed out, that it was beneficial to vote for 4 in that poll because the odds of choosing civs are higher than those of choosing baddies even if you randomize.

Then, the next day, she's suddenly reading people again. http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=192&p=27531#p27531 (Please work!) she defends LT from a case brought up by Elo and 'Goose. She has an extremely civ read on LT, it seems, despite being unwilling to vote any coins to her in Day 2. Strong enough, in fact, that she's willing to vote LT's voters in her first post after this is brought up. She once again seems to misunderstand someone's logic, asking why going to a land with a dead King is bad and refusing to understand 'Goose's typo post (once again, a case where what the other person meant seemed obvious to me).

Here's a pair of interesting quotes:

S~V~S wrote:Mongoose, Elos case against LT feels contrived to me, it feels opportunistic. The fact that she is not acknowledging those of us who know LT better (and know LTs situation that may make her distracted) is worrisome to me. I also don't see LT playing the "poor me, my life sucks" card to get out of a baddie corner, tbh, it just isn't something I think she would do in her current situation.

I guess Elo could be right about LT, but not for the reasons she is saying, and I would be surprised if she was right. Those reasons are all kinds of not valid IMO.

In this one, she thinks Elo's case against LT (which is that Desert vote and her tone, which Elo says is different from previous games in which they had civ BTSC) is "contrived", "opportunistic", and "not valid", and that Elo should listen to people who know LT better.

S~V~S wrote:I am voting Elo. I think I might have a feel for teammates, but first to get past this. I did not play MOTU, but followed closely being the Mod, and her post tone here is so different from that that along with her total lack of actual reasons for her suspicions is sending back down Elos way.

Here she again seems totally disregards any of Elo's points, and says that Elo is probably bad because her tone is different than in previous games-the SAME reason Elo wants to vote LT! This really blows my mind.

So in conclusion, I think that S~V~S is very likely bad. Her logic seems very situational, something she criticized Nev for. My thoery is that she and Roxy both jumped to a teammate (LT's) defense on Day 3 and currently seem very likely to succeed in getting Elo lynched over it. I'm most sure about S~V~S and LT of those 3.

#857

Linki: Thanks, I think?? O.J. was almost definitely evil though, so maybe that was a backhanded compliment.

I also think Roxy bears watching in part for her willingness to accept Vomps thinking she's civ. In a game where Snowie has been lynched because he was "acting too civ" and Elo seems about to be lynched for the same thing, I would think players would be more hesitant about that. People are also blaming me for having gotten coins in the Day 2 poll (which, again, is not my fault), and it seems a bit hypocritical to do that and then, 3 days later, trade back rubs and say "Oh, aren't we all so happy to be in a big civ party together." If anyone cares to read back on her posts, she has suspected every single player who suspected her this game, and now thinks Vomps is civ because he thinks she is.

I'd personally like to vote one of those 3 tomorrow. I'm most sure of my S~V~S case, and I hope we can drum up the votes to make doing so worthwhile.

#858

Only here for a second, but I am very curious now to see Bullz's response to Hedge because I think there are a few good observations there. I could see justifying a vote in his direction.

Russ, I'll respond to you later when I can actually have time to address most of that which I haven't read yet.

#859

Hedgeowl wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
agleaminranks wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
Roxy wrote:
i didnt know what to choose either so inread the roles and noticed sev eral baddies votes will count as 4 if we are in a water area/land. so hence my wondering about water voters.
Do we know what's even going on with the baddie roles? There seem to be far too many, and most have a price by them.
I'm looking at the roles right now, and these are my thoughts:

It seems as though the baddie team consists of Bowser and three baddie minions, who have the ability to buy their role with the coins they have. Since this is only the first day and no one really would have any money at this point, the three baddies chose the Goomba role, hence why Rob would post that the baddies today are Bowser and three Goombas. I'll bet when we see the game move on, we will see those roles change.

I'm also guessing that if the host uses this format for each day post, we'll be able to find out soon enough if a baddie is killed in a lynch or night kill turn.
Ah that makes sense. Thanks for clearing that up! Good point as well that we'll know if baddies are killed at night by the number of pictures shown. If Epi continues to show them that is, maybe for whatever reason later on he'll decide to keep them secret or something.
This is the first thing I noticed. Makes me wonder if Bullz was hoping that the baddie pictures would at some point not be shown.

Where do you get to that from "if Epi continues to show them"? What I was thinking at the time, and I don't even know why because it doesn't seem to be possible, is that baddies might die at night and Epi might choose not to let on by not revealing their roles.

Hedgeowl wrote: His voting record is gleam, nev, llama, missed vote. Now all three of these people are dead, but only gleam was actually lynched. The missed vote gets me more, wouldnt you be less worried about missing a vote if you knew Birdo was going to lynch llama?

I was hardly the only person to vote Gleam or Nev and good points were made about both of them. Llama I voted for before I realised who he probably was and if he were still alive I wouldn't be voting for him again. I missed the vote because I hadn't realised the poll ended early and I was out with friends anyway so would've had to vote on my phone or something. I actually hate missing votes and almost never do it (I've done it maybe 6 or 7 times over so many games that I've lost count) so even if I did know there was going to be a lynch switch I'd have still voted anyway.

Hedgeowl wrote:Bullz also pointed out that Bowser has only one NK. I had just assumed this was one a night, but it appears to be just one for the game. So, why was it used so quickly on Nev? The fact that Bullz pointed this out so quickly makes me wonder too.

I've read the roles, and the way Bowser's was worded stuck out to me because it's unusual for a baddie team to only have one kill ever. I pointed it out when I saw the post asking about it, I can't help that I saw it soon after it was posted.

Hedgeowl wrote:Another question that comes up is Bullz coin vote. He voted for Russ with the civ claim again and then randomized for Elohcin. Nobody else randomized their coin votes did they?? This actually leads me to think a Russ or Elohcin vote is not a bad idea either.

I didn't know who I wanted my other two votes to go to but a lot of people seemed to be trusting Russ so I gave him one. Elo was among a group of people which was very likely to include the Giant King but I wasn't sure which of them it was most likely to be. You act as if I randomised between the entire game when really it was like 4 or 5 players. I suppose I could always have just not mentioned randomising and said I thought Elo was a specific role, making her a target for baddies when they figured out which I thought she was.

#860

I think there are a lot of good points being made, but I think an Elo lynch is going to give us quite a bit of info. Not to mention I still think it's very likely she could be bad. My feelings haven't changed any in that area.

Votes Elohcin

#861

I have a bad feeling about this.

#862

Vompatti wrote:I have a bad feeling about this.

There seems to be too many people advocating for an Elo lynch. It makes me more suspicious than anything. If as many for for her as it looks might some of them have to be baddies. Granted 3 of the votes dont count today either. I hope Elo gets a chance to defend herself, but I will have to vote in the next hour.

#863

Bullz, from your response above, do you now suspect Elo as well? I dont think her LT case was particularly strong, but I was also surprised at the strong backlash.

#864

I was originally going to vote for Elo as well, but now I'm leaning towards one of the Elo voters, I just don't know which one. Still haven't made up my mind on Russ and Bullz either.

#865

Hedgeowl wrote:Bullz, from your response above, do you now suspect Elo as well? I dont think her LT case was particularly strong, but I was also surprised at the strong backlash.

I know this inquiry wasn't directed at me, but that made me more suspicious of them (the backlash) than the actual case.

#866

Yeah, I agree. I am sitting here pondering. Rather than be swayed by a forming bandwagon I think I am going to stick to my original thought. I could be wrong for sure, but this lynch will be interesting seeing how the factions form.

*votes Bullz*

#867

Hedgeowl wrote:Bullz, from your response above, do you now suspect Elo as well? I dont think her LT case was particularly strong, but I was also surprised at the strong backlash.

I don't really know. I have a sort of theory brewing that would make her a civvie (Elo) if true but it's based on assumptions about Llama and I haven't totally investigated it yet. I agree with you that her case wasn't brilliant and SVS in particular had quite a strong reaction to it. Russ also made a good point that SVS' vote for Elo was basically the same thing as what she was accusing Elo of doing. I could maybe see an SVS vote today.

#868

It sounds a bit nefarious, but I guess I'm opting for Dark in the World Map. I think the Dark King is still alive, so it will at least give us a boost there.

*votes Dark World*

#869

Since time is beginning to run out I'm going to vote now, for SVS because as others have pointed out, her reason for voting Elo is basically what she said made Elo suspicious in the first place.

*Votes SVS*

#870

I'm going with *SVS* for the reason Russ and Bullz mentioned above.

I also (somewhat reluctantly) give up on going to the water world and vote *dark*.

#871

Vompatti wrote:I have a bad feeling about this.

Me too, Vomps. I hope we can get one of the 3 remaining voters to vote S~V~S. I fear we've been hoodwinked.

voting S~V~S

#872

Crap, I almost missed the vote - left it too late. I was persuaded by Russti et al. to rethink my previous kowtowing and examine others.

Got yoga now so I'll see you guys in a few hours.

#873

Who is your foe?

Poll ended at Fri Jul 19, 2013 1:00 pm

birdwithteeth11
0
No votes

Bullzeye
1
Hedgeowl (7)
9%

Elohcin
4
LittleTiger (1), MovingPictures07 (4), S~V~S (5), birdwithteeth11 (6)
36%

Hedgeowl
0
No votes

LittleTiger
0
No votes

Mongoose
0
No votes

MovingPictures07
0
No votes

Roxy
0
No votes

Russtifinko
0
No votes

S~V~S
4
Bullzeye (8), Vompatti (9), Russtifinko (10), Mongoose (11)
36%

Vompatti
0
No votes

King Hippo (The Host, the Dead, the Non)
2
Epignosis (2), Snow Dog (3)

#874

Elohcin has been lynched. She was Toad.

#875

Night 5: Pipe Land

A message from Ludwig Von Koopa:

“These blueprints are a royal pain. One of these pipes leads to money. Anyone who can help me figure this out can have ten gold.”

1. The pipe that contains the Piranha Plant is not white.
2. The second pipe, which is green, is not the one that is blocked.
3. The red pipe, which does not contain a Piranha Plant, is the third one.
4. The pipe that is blocked is not the first one.

Send in the correct solution by the deadline for ten coins. Note that there are three elements to the puzzle: Sequence (first pipe, second pipe, third pipe), color (green, red, white) and contents (Piranha plant, coins, blockage).

It is now Night 5. You have 24 hours to send in your PMs.

#876

#877

RIP, Elo. We really need to get a baddie soon.

#878

By the way, voting Dark World.

#879

Ugh, terrible result! Sorry Elo

#880

RIP Elohcin. This is definitely a sad result I was hoping to avoid.

#881

I've also voted for Dark World, it just makes the most sense right now. Does everyone else think we should go Desert next so that Water World is put off for as long as possible?

#882

Bullzeye wrote:I've also voted for Dark World, it just makes the most sense right now. Does everyone else think we should go Desert next so that Water World is put off for as long as possible?

I think it's prudent to discuss this sooner than later, so thanks for bringing it up, Bullz. I will have a think upon it. We have no assurance that Gleam will ever be able to rejoin the game, but I think it likely that the Water King is still out there. At this point, waiting until last for Water gives the baddies one more night to amass coins, so my inclination is to (finally) listen to Vomps and maybe do Water first. At the very least, the Water King will gain his/her power if not NK'd before then.

#883

I wish we had gone to the water world early, but now it's probably best to save it for last.

#884

Vompatti wrote:I wish we had gone to the water world early, but now it's probably best to save it for last.

Any particular reason why or just a gut instinct?

#885

Mongoose wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:I've also voted for Dark World, it just makes the most sense right now. Does everyone else think we should go Desert next so that Water World is put off for as long as possible?
I think it's prudent to discuss this sooner than later, so thanks for bringing it up, Bullz. I will have a think upon it. We have no assurance that Gleam will ever be able to rejoin the game, but I think it likely that the Water King is still out there. At this point, waiting until last for Water gives the baddies one more night to amass coins, so my inclination is to (finally) listen to Vomps and maybe do Water first. At the very least, the Water King will gain his/her power if not NK'd before then.

You could be right actually. Given that there are only two dead players whose roles we don't know, and one of them a lot of people have worked out anyway, there's a good chance the Water King is still alive. I guess it does make more sense to give a benefit to a living civvie than a dead one. I think at this point no matter when we go WW the baddies will probably have a free pass but hopefully we can take at least one out before we go.

#886

Elo didn't vote, and if she had, she may have been able to save herself (but this is not a certainty, because we don't know how many mushrooms were in play, etc.) -- I wonder if she was frozen by the Ice King. I apologize if this is duplicative to something someone else already said.

This tells me that the baddies have been good at lumping our suspicions onto other Civs - looks like the Ice King actually believed Elo was bad.

linki - Bullz -- In light of Bullz's response, what do you think of that plan, Vomps?

#887

On second thought the longer we leave it the more time the baddies have to blow all their coins on other stuff leaving them unable to afford a water role. Everyone think like a baddie for a minute: Would you want to save all your coins for a bunch of extra votes that might out you when you could be buying kill powers?

#888

Mongoose wrote:
Vompatti wrote:I wish we had gone to the water world early, but now it's probably best to save it for last.
Any particular reason why or just a gut instinct?

We'd get one more chance to lynch one of the baddies who gain a benefit and can possibly control the lynch in the water world if we don't lynch them before that.

#889

I don't know. It's possible that going to the water world would help the water king more or at least as much as it would help the baddies, but on the other hand it's also possibly that the water king is already dead.

#890

You've raised some interesting points, guys. I have no idea who Nev was, so that's a good point, Vomps.

Did you see the power for Pipe King has been posted? S/he can redirect any night power. If she knows who the baddies are -- this could be powerful. Could cause a baddie to kill one of their own possibly.

#891

Voted Dark as well. All valid arguments cuase clearly we are going to have to go to water soon. I a, not sure currently what the best strategy is. I assume we start cycling back through lands when they run out?

#892

Oooh good call. I wonder if we get another power boost the second time around. I assumed it was a timed game like in Llama's Shining game.But you know what happens when you assume.

#893

Howdy, folks! Sorry I haven't been around lately, but the internetz here only started working properly a few hours ago. I may not be able to participate as much as I would like to, as I am on vacation, and will only be online for a bit before going to bed. Butt if I am still alive, I promise to do my best to keep up k.

#894

Ugh. Terrible result. RIP Elo!

I think I'm going to have to re-examine everyone and start over entirely with all my suspicions.

#895

Well, I thought I was onto something with Elo's inconsistencies. RIP Elo. Sorry I was wrong about you again.

I think what we need to do is look who keeps bandwagoning onto votes because I'm certain a baddie is hiding, constantly shifting among the suspicion. Who best fits this description? BWT and S~V~S first come to mind... which is strange given S~V~S's earlier game behavior... she now seems incredibly different. I realize she's hosting now, but maybe I was wrong about her. I don't know anymore. I still am tempted to think it's her civvie game based on her early behavior, but Russ's case is convincing. However, if Russ is bad, then it's possible the baddies are trying to set up another civvie lynch tomorrow.

I'm torn on the issue. Unfortunately, I don't have enough time as I'd like to analyze this game.

Russtifinko wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
- More than a few were chiming in that Russ 'seemed civvie' without giving much reason at all, and he received the most votes of anyone during the night minigame to receive coins, even though we have no idea of knowing his alignment. The way that poll went down still bothers me for that reason. That's another strike against Elo as well, that some seemed so willing to give her coins -- especially since it's not even like with llama where his role seemed able to be deduced, even if there was possibly another option, occam's razor suggests an explanation for him. I don't see any such one for players giving trust to Elo or Russ. If it's because they seem 'helpful', they both always seem that way, IMO.

- There's no denying that Russ was perhaps trying to claim the Giant King role, and I do not believe that to be true based on how votes have gone down.

- His reasons for his votes seems off and is far from satisfactory to me, especially his bandwagon onto LT and ever since his initial voting for me on Day 1 and then backing off. Again, this is another item that applies to Elo. I still don't get how anyone could tell LT's alignment based on what she was saying and it baffles me that others found her arguments persuasive.
Dear God. Test is over and I'm not frozen anymore, so here goes. Hi again, everyone!

I'll start by addressing the "case" against me.

First off, thank you, MP, for summarizing so succinctly. I have no reply to your first bullet point. I don't know why people would think I was civ more than others, and I'm also not really sure why them thinking that makes me bad. I do try to be helpful, as you mentioned, but beyond that I'm as lost as you.

Once again, I was IN NO WAY, EVER trying to claim the Giant King role. I was simply trying to engage in in-game banter, something I thought I had been doing too little of. Again, I cannot be blamed for other people's perceptions. I never ever meant it to seem like I was the Giant King, but I don't think it's fair to blame me that people assumed that. I even stated a while back when Nev first brought this up that I am not him.

Can we please stop using jargony terms for my vote? Rox calling it a drive-by really pisses me off, to be honest. Bandwagon at least makes sense, even if it's wrong. I did arrive online 8 minutes before the poll closed, and used 5 of those minutes weighing cases. I decided that it was best to vote before posting because I have heard of people being caught in linkitis and missing polls. I think Rox has complained of this, ironically. I think it's craven and useless to throw a vote on a player who has no chance of being lynched if 2 candidates are leading the poll and it's last minute like that. I felt (and still feel) better about Elo than LT, so I voted for LT. I then IMMEDIATELY wrote a post explaining my vote for everyone to see. The only reason this farce of a case exists is because Roxy managed to type "Hey, Russti voted." before I finished writing my case. Roxy actually seems mad at me about the case on LT, which is based on her World Map vote from the day before that lynch. Personally, I can't think of any reason for Roxy to be going after me like this unless she was mad because I put her teammate in the lead for the vote. (You'll notice if you read the poll that she was very quick to tie it back up.)

Another post coming with my current suspicions.

Thanks for your response. I'm not sure how I feel though. You're logical here and I'd love to believe you, but I'm not sure you're a civvie this game.

I still don't understand how anyone thought the suspicions against LT were anything other than vague. However, given Elo's flip, it's possible we have an S~V~S/LT baddie pair (and two others as well, I would imagine), and that Elo just so happened to be correct in her assessment.

Russtifinko wrote:Ok, my current suspect list. Obviously, as mentioned, I think that LT and Roxy are likely bad. LT because of her strange, un-civ-friendly World Map vote, which I admitted at the time of my vote was a bit weak by itself (but better than the case on Elo). Roxy's strong defense of LT and subsequent attack on me makes me think it's more likely that LT is bad, and that those two are likely teammates.

I think the third piece of the puzzle is S~V~S. I was getting weird feelings from her as early as Day 2, when she repeatedly seemed to misunderstand Nev's stated reason for voting Gleam on Day 1 despite multiple explanations by him. This struck me as strange because LT has seemed highly intelligent to me in every game we've played, and Nev's point was very clear to me and a few others at the time. (Mongoose, maybe? I don't remember exactly.) For reference, http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=192&p=27531#p27531 is an excerpt from their back-and-forth, where S~V~S mentions how good she is at reading people. I hope that link works right.

She also voted only for Snow and Gleam in the Coin Poll on Day 2. Despite having a good gut and being great at reading people, she can't even pick 2 people who are somewhat likely to be civ and vote them? Sounds fishy to me. Not to mention, as others have previously pointed out, that it was beneficial to vote for 4 in that poll because the odds of choosing civs are higher than those of choosing baddies even if you randomize.

Then, the next day, she's suddenly reading people again. http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=192&p=27531#p27531 (Please work!) she defends LT from a case brought up by Elo and 'Goose. She has an extremely civ read on LT, it seems, despite being unwilling to vote any coins to her in Day 2. Strong enough, in fact, that she's willing to vote LT's voters in her first post after this is brought up. She once again seems to misunderstand someone's logic, asking why going to a land with a dead King is bad and refusing to understand 'Goose's typo post (once again, a case where what the other person meant seemed obvious to me).

Here's a pair of interesting quotes:

S~V~S wrote:Mongoose, Elos case against LT feels contrived to me, it feels opportunistic. The fact that she is not acknowledging those of us who know LT better (and know LTs situation that may make her distracted) is worrisome to me. I also don't see LT playing the "poor me, my life sucks" card to get out of a baddie corner, tbh, it just isn't something I think she would do in her current situation.

I guess Elo could be right about LT, but not for the reasons she is saying, and I would be surprised if she was right. Those reasons are all kinds of not valid IMO.
In this one, she thinks Elo's case against LT (which is that Desert vote and her tone, which Elo says is different from previous games in which they had civ BTSC) is "contrived", "opportunistic", and "not valid", and that Elo should listen to people who know LT better.

S~V~S wrote:I am voting Elo. I think I might have a feel for teammates, but first to get past this. I did not play MOTU, but followed closely being the Mod, and her post tone here is so different from that that along with her total lack of actual reasons for her suspicions is sending back down Elos way.
Here she again seems totally disregards any of Elo's points, and says that Elo is probably bad because her tone is different than in previous games-the SAME reason Elo wants to vote LT! This really blows my mind.

So in conclusion, I think that S~V~S is very likely bad. Her logic seems very situational, something she criticized Nev for. My thoery is that she and Roxy both jumped to a teammate (LT's) defense on Day 3 and currently seem very likely to succeed in getting Elo lynched over it. I'm most sure about S~V~S and LT of those 3.

I would like to see what S~V~S has to say to this.

Russtifinko wrote:Linki: Thanks, I think?? O.J. was almost definitely evil though, so maybe that was a backhanded compliment.

I also think Roxy bears watching in part for her willingness to accept Vomps thinking she's civ. In a game where Snowie has been lynched because he was "acting too civ" and Elo seems about to be lynched for the same thing, I would think players would be more hesitant about that. People are also blaming me for having gotten coins in the Day 2 poll (which, again, is not my fault), and it seems a bit hypocritical to do that and then, 3 days later, trade back rubs and say "Oh, aren't we all so happy to be in a big civ party together." If anyone cares to read back on her posts, she has suspected every single player who suspected her this game, and now thinks Vomps is civ because he thinks she is.

I'd personally like to vote one of those 3 tomorrow. I'm most sure of my S~V~S case, and I hope we can drum up the votes to make doing so worthwhile.

This is a very astute observation. Even though I still think you could be a baddie, I think this seems even more convincing than your thoughts on S~V~S.

#896

I voted Dark World by the way.

#897

No, her tone was far from the only reason for my vote for her. FAR from it. She kept beating the same dead horse. i am sorry i was wrong apparently, but do not think, in hindsight, that my reasoning was suspect or wrong. And I beloieve you know that MP, and the fact that you are lending credence to this ag=rgument is disturbing to me.

This death has made me rethink my position on some other people though, people I thought I trusted before.

#898

Mongoose wrote:Crap, I almost missed the vote - left it too late. I was persuaded by Russti et al. to rethink my previous kowtowing and examine others.

Got yoga now so I'll see you guys in a few hours.

Kowtowing?

You had good reason to think I was civ.

Like I said, I this game makes me sad, it is so obviously being run by baddies, but the mechanics are too complex for the 15 mins a day i allotted myself for a speed game. So this is my bad, no one elses, obv.

#899

I think this has taught us all that we need to examine everyone again. Trust no one. People you think are civ probably aren't and vice versa. As much as possible, I am going to try to start everyone with a clean slate and get fresh perceptions from there.

I think we need to trust our gut with who we suspect too. Cause just because SVS voted for Elo and Elo was civ doesn't auto make her bad. My gut instinct at the beginning was that you were civ, so I will be revisiting that.

I don't expect y'all to let me off the hook either.

Tomorrow I am going to re-read this entire thread (time permitting) with my perceptions of everyone set at zero. I don't want to get blinders on about people, but I also hate it when I am swayed to case I am not entirely buying into and then am wrong.

I have some lovely pinot right now so I am either making tons of sense or way less sense than I think (like normal).

And to all a good night.

#900

I feel turely bad for Elo for two (2) reasons.