Psych Mafia [END]

[Scotty]

I've been a civ with BTSC a few times, I usually leave little unnoticeable hints, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lorab was killed for having BTSC. If she trusted the player and told them who she was they'd kill her at the first chance they got.

Scotty brings up a good point on Ying/Yang and riddles. If Shawn is bad at puzzles or inactvie then it doesn't matter, but if the riddles are really that hard perhaps that can help clue us in to who Ying/Yang are?

Who do you think is Shawn, sig?

I don't feel bad tracking him down right now openly. I don't know what his role entails with protections as the game goes on, but I'd like to eliminate our Shawn from the suspect pool at our earliest convenience before we start meandering closer to LYLO

Linki: I thought maybe he was a green check from Soko, but the more I think about it, bwt has not been a contributor to throwing Tabasco in the soup this game.

It's timmer, BWT and INH on my head.

Epi STILL hasn't weighed in on what he thinks of INH this phase except to say that he would vote for him.

I also must say, Epi, you really started to get the ball rolling right after MM was lynched. As if to say "we're doing great gang, let's work together to finish this," yet otherwise possibly determining, "shit, we need to fan flames and get people talking every which way. Shaggy and Scooby, you go down that dark hallway with ghostly clanking, and I'll go with Daphne over here to this finely lit motel room"

Epi, why did you vote Sokoth over INH yesterday?

[Scotty]

Sorry everyone. Busiest week I've had at work since I took the job. Not much energy left over for mental/computer work like mafia.

Also, Mr. Klingon, in your big post where you list all of the players and your thoughts on them, every player is in alphabetical order except for INH. Is that because his name is in a different place in your own list of players because he's your teammate?

Because it's really strange to me that everyone else would be in alpha order except that one.

That's an excellent catch, right there. And the fact that he is an "undecided" is classic baddie teammate.... throw a bit of shade, but not enough that you'd be voting there.

I suppose it's possible, but I would think the one thing a baddie would want to do in a post like that is avoid making their teammate stick out in any way, and checking alphabetical order like that is super easy. It's possible Sokoth was trying to do that and failed, but to me it seems more likely something a civ would do because they're more carefree. I disagree with LoRab's point, here. More importantly, though, this feels opportunistic from timmer, to me, and it got me looking into him.....

I'm going to vote Sokoth now. Epig's and LoRab's thoughts have me convinced, and I believe INH is bad, as well. He was reading very sensible to me, but his voting with MM against Sig, and Sokoth's putting him last on her list... nope.

Also, in terms of LoRab's game play, this feels like her civvie game. When she's called out as bad she tends, imo, to post less and get more defensive. Here she's much more activelty defending herself and calling people out which fits civ lorab.

I don't like this, either. timmer thought INH was super reasonable and trustworthy, but one medium-sized case from Epi and he's completely sold that INH is bad? He also criticizes INH's vote with MM against sig, which is fair, except that timmer has probably been the most anti-sig person in the game.

I get it - timmer's Zodac experience gies him a different lens through which to view sig's play, so I can see him being more skeptical of sig than most. timmer switched his read on a player from "top X civs" to "top 2 baddies", and having your reasons be
1) Epi said so.
2) He voted for a person (sig) whom I have suspected for days and whom I said was possibly bad as recently as D4, and a confirmed baddie made the same vote.
quote="timmer"]I've put a vote on Wilgy.

Looking back through, I feel like both Wilgy and Sig could be bad, while I'm less sold on the MM case. I trust INH in this game, and haven't trusted Sig all game, however I also see the Wilgy logic, and Eloh is exactly right about the pingy tone of lorab's post, and so it makes more sense for me to vote him and put him ahead than to vote Sig and create a three-way tie that could be open to shenanigans and cause a dead MM instead.

3) A player whose alignment we don't know yet listed INH out of order on their earlier rainbow read. All of these reasons are astonishingly weak and more or less incoherent, and timmer should be getting scrutiny over this.

Note also that timmer had a chance to tie the lynch vote yesterday and refused to do so. Instead he voted Wilgy on the rationale "I also see the Wilgy logic", and specifically cited not wanting to risk MM dying as a reason for his vote!! This is only the second time all game that timmer mentioned Wilgy, the first being on D2:

I say we end our hosts search for a replacement via lynch. Aren't I the nicest?

Wilgy, looking back it seems like your Dom suspicion began with this: "Dom is bad.

He's poking at Lorabbit's twirlibirdimarks after I already inqured about them. While not being directly opportunistic, he's looking for reasons to vote."

Where are you at, now? Obviously still focused on him, but is there more to your thoughts now that a day has passed? How do you feel the lynch went?

timmer essentially defends Dom here. This made sense when Dom was inactive, but I am arguing it makes way more sense knowing that Dom was in fact bad.

All that is far from a defense of INH. I actually would have preferred lynching INH over Sokoth today, and maybe I should have said so sooner. However, I realize that my judgement on INH may be skewed this game since he's been after me since I replaced in this role, so I held off.

This feels like hindsight now with the Day's end so close, but the Sokoth case worries me. There's similarly little resistance to when I went after Scotty, and a number of people (timmer and BWT come to mind, but possibly others) are saying "Sokoth today, INH next!" like it's a foregone conclusion Sokoth will flip bad. Anytime people do that, it makes me think that they probably won't.

This post took quite a turn from where I thought it would go. I've convinced myself to vote timmer, and to keep doing so until he or I is killed.[/quote]

I really like this case.
Timmer has been in my periphery for a bit, and while he led the brigade on me on day 2, which got us nowhere, I didn't necessarily fault him for that.
But his attitude of the past few days after MM flipped bad has me doubling back. I thought timmer thrived after catching a bad guy. Instead, he indeed soft defends Dom/MM and stays rather inactive in regards to building any cases from it.

Since Dom was killed by YingYang twins, he has done nothing in terms of establishing cases. There's this post:

Spoiler: show

Who would kill Lorab when someone was talking about lynching her next?

I think lynching LoRab would be a huge mistake. Epi, I get what you're saying about that looking like a potential bus, but I really don't think that's what's going on here. Besides, MM wasn't lynched, so he couldn't really be bussed. (By the way, thanks for that one, by the way, YinYang). I think looking at other MM connections is a much better way to go, here.

LOL @ MM.

Somebody who had a chat with her.

OK. Read up.

Thoughts on the names that have come up, because at this moments, I don't have any suspects of my own and I've been wrong about suspicions up until now, so I'm self doubting, and I didn't have time to read back through earlier posts. Also, it's less than 2 hours, and more names would only make it easier for mafia to manipulate the lynch, assuming (like Epi) many missing voters).

MM I could definitely see as bad. Especially after the vote for Sig, with no stated reason for doing so.

Russ I would be very surprised to find out was bad.

Wilgy, I'm unsure. I'm not very good at reading him. My gut tells me he is civ, but my gut could be totally wrong.

Sig, I really don't think is bad. I'm willing to revisit that at some point, but I don't see enough evidence that he's bad at this point to change my thinking.

So, I'm voting MM, because I think that's where I'm seeing the strongest reasoning at this point.

I think there's enough evidence in sig's favor. I won't vote for him. Wilgy and MM are gone. Russ got the yellow comment. I want to explore that.

The above alongside Russ's ardent "defense" of Lorab is prima facie evidence that Russ and Lorab had BTSC at one point, and that despite the initial anonymity, Russ learned the identity of his company.

Think on that. Lorab had an anonymous chat with Russ, and she clearly trusted him (given the yellow).

Have you ever been bad and received BTSC with a civilian? That can be one of the most nerve-wracking experiences in Mafia...although I'd like to think I've gotten it down to a science.

Or you might just be like Eloh, who unwittingly outed her damn self in Death Note. Good times. *Wipes away a giddy tear*.

Russ' defense is unique.

sig never defended Lorab, and by Day 5 said she warranted a closer look. Dr.Wilgy never defended Lorab. MM was evil and may well have been caught in BTSC. That leaves Russ, who came out defending Lorab.

There are five civilians left.

Shawn Spencer
Carlton Lassiter
Henry Spencer
Abigail Lytar
Woody the Coroner

I don't believe Russ is Shawn or Carlton. I have other people in mind for those two roles. That leaves Henry, Abigail, and Woody. None of those are able to check secrets or roles. And if you are one of those roles, that narrows things down even further.

Russ got BTSC with Frank, figured out that was Lorab, and killed her.

Wait wait wait wait. This analysis was all going so well until the very last line. The whole theory was super well put together, except that I don't see how the conclusion follows. So:

1) LoRab and I had BTSC.
2) LoRab and I trusted and defended each other.
3) LoRab was civ.
4) I am.....bad??

You're giving me way too much credit and not giving LoRab enough if you think I could pull the wool over her eyes like that in BTSC. I'm flattered, but you're flat-out wrong.

I'll be voting timmer again. I'd love to hear some discussion on him, as I put together what I thought was a pretty well-thought-out and airtight (although admittedly poorly timed) case, but the only real response I got was from him, so I feel like I'm talking at a brick wall. His behavior D4 and D5 was just BANANAS, right? And on a pretty pivotal day for the baddies, too!

Has Epi been elected President and Ruler of Casemaking here, or do other people get to have ideas worth talking about too?

Airtight? I do not think that word means what you think it means. You still haven't even looked at it without your blunders on.

But I'm going to concentrate tomorrow on the relevant cases, not on defending a vote that I made in good faith.

where he says he is going to concentrate on relevant cases, and not just defend himself.

Well, OK. He agreed with Epi's "case" on Sokoth and INH. Doesn't really put up any other thoughts. When Russ confronts him, it's just been a "nah, I'm not bad bro" kind of attitude. I feel like he's concentrating on the sun, and if he concentrates too hard, he might be blind in a phase.

Yo timmer, I'm voting you with Russ. Let's see if you can build your own cases, and let's see if anyone comes out of the woodwork to defend you.

[Epignosis]

This website is giving me a pain in my ass right now.

I'm really not sold on the Scotty case, so I'd like to discuss other things. For instance:

What does everyone think of those hack Yin Yangs that killed original me?

Well...they suck...and could be just about anyone (though one theory is sig is one of them due to the D1 results). Did you have anything more specific you wanted to discuss about them or did you just want to draw attention away from Scotty? Cuz if you had any insight into who you & yang could be, I'm sure we'd ALL like to hear it...otherwise, speculation on their identities would be pretty fruitless.

I agree with whoever speculated that they have been fairly active players, and that's why they targeted someone who couldn't be traced back to them. I think it's quite plausible that Sig is one of them, but if so, we can't do anything about him for the time being.

What is the purpose of the yellow question? What reason does it have for existing?

Regarding DF's agreement regarding the speculation, I looked back to see who raised the idea that Yin and Yang are "fairly active players," and I could not find who said it between DF1's death and DF2 saying this. DFaraday, can you show me the person with whom you were agreeing?

What follows the underlined originally came from Scotty1, who implied it wasn't a very helpful observation because it didn't narrow the field at all.

MM, because I wasn't satisfied with Dom's posts early on, and MM is doing nothing to make me feel better about that role.

Why do you suspect him again? I never noticed anything suspicious from Dom.

Scotty1 immediately responded to DF2, but DF2 didn't acknowledge or respond to anything Scotty had to say.

I feel like it is probably a post count or something like that. I don't see our hosts setting Herculean tasks for the Mafia to be able to use their kill. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever seen a game where the Mafia had to meet specific criteria every time they want to kill.

This is commentary on the Crooked Cop mechanics before MM got taken out. MM's "task" wasn't Herculean- it was beyond the realm of his control. This post doesn't affect my opinion one way or another, but I decided to include it because it seems relevant.

Looking over our Klingon's posts, this is all he posted during Day 3:

Hey, I want to apologize for my absence. I may be unable to post for a day or two. I've got some things going on here. I do apologize family comes first.

I don't like merging real life and Mafia, but I can't help but wonder whether Sokoth's absence on Day 3 was related to the fact that the Mafia didn't kill that night. He was around for the first two Days about the same amount, and I didn't notice anything notably different in style or substance in his posts.

By this point, rabbit8 had the same number of posts as SokothQultuq, though the latter's were meatier. DFaraday, does this line of thinking hold weight against rabbit8/Scotty2?

Sig could also be Shawn, so I'm really not liking that INH and MM are so blithe about voting him. The most likely options to a Sig lynch I see are A) He's Yang and nothing happens again, or B) He's Shawn and we just lost a major civvie.

I'm voting MM. I don't like how he voted Sig without a stated reason, especially considering that the most likely options are a wasted lynch or a big civ loss.

This is a point in DF's favor. He could have voted INH, but instead he chose to put a second vote on MM.

I find Epi's analysis of Sokoth to be compelling, and I agree that it reads like Sokoth was specifically concerned with defending Dom. I still believe that Sokoth's absence throughout Day/Night 3 could have meant that he was unable to fulfill whatever requirements he needed to kill (or if he could fulfill it, just wasn't around, so I'm leaning his way right now.

BDH, pretty sure Quin is a guy. He just has a confusing avi.

Voting Sokoth as well.

This is DF2's last contribution. It's consistent with what he said earlier, but that isn't meaningful to me one way or another. I'm mostly interested in whether or not he thinks rabbit8/Scotty2 is bad based on the same reasoning he gave for voting SokothQultuq- with reasons, of course.

Overall, this is a mixed-bag. There are minor points against DF2, one major point against him (defending Dom/MM and not engaging in any further discussion about it), and then there is that one vote in his favor.

[Epignosis]

These pages are either taking ages to load or not loading at all.

I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

Explain like I'm 5 about that point. Why is it impossible with 5 civilians still alive?

And I'm not saying replacements shouldn't be scrutinized, but the fact that they are replacements is not an alignment indicator.

Why are you misconstruing what I'm saying, Epi?

Am I misconstruing what you're saying? Do you think I'm doing that intentionally? If I am, what motivation as mafia would I have to do that?

There are five civilians still alive. I'm one of them. I believe sig is good. I believe BigDamnHero is good. Math was never my best subject in school, but I'm pretty sure five less three is two, and that two is less than three. That means at least one of the three replacements is bad, and it leaves open the possibility that more than one of them is.

[DFaraday]

Epi, I do think that Rabbit/Scotty could certainly be Mafia, and that Rabbit's lack of participation could be why they missed the kill. Sokoth just stood out more because he had been posting on Day 2, when there was a kill, whereas Rabbit had seemed consistently absent throughout.

[Epignosis]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

I don't have one. I'll look over his posts when the site stops being a troll. Plus Scotty is getting all worked up because I apparently haven't answered something about INH and he's getting really antsy about it. So take a number. I'll get to it.

[DFaraday]

Looking back, I actually can't find where I got that Yin Yang idea from. I'll keep looking in a bit.

[Elohcin]

I've been a civ with BTSC a few times, I usually leave little unnoticeable hints, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lorab was killed for having BTSC. If she trusted the player and told them who she was they'd kill her at the first chance they got.

Scotty brings up a good point on Ying/Yang and riddles. If Shawn is bad at puzzles or inactvie then it doesn't matter, but if the riddles are really that hard perhaps that can help clue us in to who Ying/Yang are?

These are both good points. First, my question to everyone would be, did any of you get temporary BTSC with another player claiming to be a civ? If others claim they had BTSC with someone claiming to be civ, then its more likely that is what happened with Lorab. If not, I don't think it would be the case. I mean, what kind of role allows you a one-time temporary BTSC conversation?

For the second point, for some reason, I was thinking that the host(s) were the ones making the riddles. Did you read somewhere where it specifically said that Ying/Yang make up the riddles?

Now....anyone willing to gift me their item and I will gift you mine?

[insertnamehere]

I believe the baddies are hiding in the Yes Men. The players who just go with the flow and jump on the bandwagons. Timmer's definitely caught my eye for his complete and utter 180 heel turn from this:

I feel like both Wilgy and Sig could be bad, while I'm less sold on the MM case. I trust INH in this game, and haven't trusted Sig all game...

to this

I believe INH is bad, as well. He was reading very sensible to me, but his voting with MM against Sig, and Sokoth's putting him last on her list... nope.

But my vote's going to go to the player I most feel exemplifies the "Yes Man" archetype, BWT. After saying nothing about me for the entire game, he posts a "Yeah, this" to Epi's Sokoth/INH dual indictments, and now wants to lynch me tomorrow. He voted Scotty twice before boarding the Wilgy train, and browsing through his post history, I can barely find any points of value that don't connect to one of those two. This vote is equally a statement of suspicion, and a suggestion for him to step up his game.

So...you agree with me?


I agree that BWT is kind of following the Flavor of the Day case the past few days. I am notorious for misreading him, so I'll let others decide on how it looks. In my experience he's done that before as civ and a bad, fwiw.

I know, I'm as shocked as you. But at this point, you're the person in the thread making the most sense to me. I still haven't seen any response from BWT to my vote against him, and I'm inclined to repeat that vote until he shows up again. At the same time, your case against Timmer makes a lot of sense.

I may just flip a coin.

[insertnamehere]

I hate to add another thing to Epi's queue of requests, but I'd like to ask him why he thinks sig is civlian, and presumably Shawn.

[BigDamnHero]

Now....anyone willing to gift me their item and I will gift you mine?

I'll take you up on this offer...

[Elohcin]

Now....anyone willing to gift me their item and I will gift you mine?

I'll take you up on this offer...

Okay. Thanks!

@HOST - do we have to wait until night to PM you and gift each other our items?

[Epignosis]

I hate to add another thing to Epi's queue of requests, but I'd like to ask him why he thinks sig is civlian, and presumably Shawn.

You're jumping in line, but that's okay. This one is easy.

The prevailing idea is that, because sig survived a lynched, he is either Shawn or Yang. The Crooked Cops want Yin and Yang out of the way because Y&Y are a direct threat to their enterprise (see MM). There have been not one, but two failed kill attempts. I believe sig was at least one of those. He wasn't killed.

Are there other possibilities? There always are. But I have to do the best with the information available, and that's the conclusion I have drawn.

[Epignosis]

The site is behaving itself now. I am cooking though, and then eating. When I return, I'm going to read through INH and birdwithteeth and report. After that, I am going to complete my analysis of the replacements. One of you bad.

[Russtifinko]

Also, keep in mind that LoRab was right to suspect MM and right to not suspect Wilgy. She's probably right about sig too, tbh. So what makes me so special that I'd somehow be bad AND the only read her gut was wrong on?

I'm especially surprised by this given that when I defended LoRab the other day, you seemed to back off.

Can you explain how you found out you had BTSC with Lorab as opposed to anybody else?

I'm neither confirming nor denying that I did have BTSC with LoRab in the first place. I don't really think I'd be allowed. I'm just saying that the logical progression of your thoughts up to that point made sense.

Airtight? I do not think that word means what you think it means. You still haven't even looked at it without your blunders on.

Airtight means exactly what I think it means. Don't patronize me, Scummer.

Linki: Epi, sure, I'll buy that at least one replacement is bad, no problem. But how does that give us a better chance of getting a baddie today? If 1 of 3 is bad, that's a 33% hit rate. That would leave 3 baddies among 6 non-replacements, a 50% hit rate!

So unless you can convince me there's incontrovertible proof 2 replacements are bad, then I think you're oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of useful stuff by limiting yourself to looking only at replacements.

[Russtifinko]

Damn! I thought I had this in my last post. It would've made my linki response to Epi easier to follow, I think. Anyway, assorted miscellaneous responses to posts that caught my eye:

I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

So I think 2 different points are being made here. Epi is arguing a straw man when he, correctly, points out that replacements could be bad. Scotty, however, is also right by saying they're no more likely to be bad than any other player. Unless of course you think being a certain alignment has an effect on the rate of dropping out of games. I don't, but if anybody does think that, I'd be interested to hear why they think so.

Epi, I do think that Rabbit/Scotty could certainly be Mafia, and that Rabbit's lack of participation could be why they missed the kill. Sokoth just stood out more because he had been posting on Day 2, when there was a kill, whereas Rabbit had seemed consistently absent throughout.

DF, you said here that rabbit's lack of participation could be why they missed the kill. Does the fact that MM's kill condition wasn't something within his control change your opinion on this??

Obviously to kill, a PM still has to go in, but that lowers the bar considerably over our previous speculation that the baddies themselves had to be actively meeting goals through their play.

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

That's because you do ....BWT has been super duper responsive/involved lately.

First, my question to everyone would be, did any of you get temporary BTSC with another player claiming to be a civ? If others claim they had BTSC with someone claiming to be civ, then its more likely that is what happened with Lorab. If not, I don't think it would be the case. I mean, what kind of role allows you a one-time temporary BTSC conversation?

Elo, the hosts revealed LoRab's role secrets on Page 1. It seems a one-time temporary BTSC conversation with a player of her choice was exactly LoRab's power.

[birdwithteeth11]

Sorry everyone. Life has just been nuts the last few days. Catching up now.

[birdwithteeth11]

What line of work are you in BWT?

I work for Kroger as an assistant store manager at a local store in the area. Lower-level management in retail = Crazy, variable work hours from week to week sometimes.

[birdwithteeth11]

But my vote's going to go to the player I most feel exemplifies the "Yes Man" archetype, BWT. After saying nothing about me for the entire game, he posts a "Yeah, this" to Epi's Sokoth/INH dual indictments, and now wants to lynch me tomorrow. He voted Scotty twice before boarding the Wilgy train, and browsing through his post history, I can barely find any points of value that don't connect to one of those two. This vote is equally a statement of suspicion, and a suggestion for him to step up his game.

Due to lack of time in that moment, I was willing to defer to Epig's judgement since I trusted him. Plus, I felt both you and Sokoth were bad (turns out I was totally wrong there).

How have I been a "Yes Man"? I've been pretty active for most of this game and am contributing my own thoughts pretty often. Do you have any evidence that says otherwise about my behavior for this game?

[birdwithteeth11]

Considering that mm voted for Sig, I'd think that my choosing not to vote for him yesterday would be seen in a good light, not a bad one.

It does in hindsight, but I'm not sure about that moment in time. To me, it looks more like you did a 180 rather than changed your mind due to new evidence. Unless I missed something where you had suspected MM previously.

[Epignosis]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

First, a few general notes. birdwithteeth11 dies (whether by lynch or Night kill) a lot early on. Whatever his alignment, I am happy he's made it to Day 6 for a damn change.

Additionally, I found him to be hopping with activity the first two phases, and after that, he petered off. I don't see that as meaningful. Maybe someone else does, but I don't.

After five posts or so of greetings and jokes and goofy reactions, his first on-topic commentary is a slight defense of Eloh but a disagreement with her all the same. I like this. It shows a willingness to express an opinion while acknowledging a potentially less than idea scenario.

I also like this:

Eloh says she doesn't have information, and your reaction implies that only mafia have information on the poll. Why?

I said it was strange and an attempt to look townie yes. I think it would be odd for a member of the town to make that type of post about having information since to me it implies guilt/an attempt to hide that you have information, there'd be no reason for a town Eloh to try and do that in my opinion. It was a very minor thing, but worth pointing out.

Or it's what she would say if she didn't have any information on the poll and felt like commenting on it.

I mean, your wife can defend herself without you jumping in, right?

Early on, a guy who has a history of getting himself lynched or killed early, has no qualms about laying one on me.

It's Day 1, and birdwithteeth is moved to respond to Elohcin's response this way, followed by this. That interaction shows a concern for working things out and a willingness to change his mind. I note that birdwithteeth didn't go after sig for his probing, but instead tried to offer his own interpretation.

Here, birdwithteeth11 expresses suspicion of Dom, but doesn't seem sold. That could go either way with me, but I'm inclined to view it as a natural progression of thoughts, which birdwithteeth11 was eager to provide early on.

bwt then named Dom, Quin, and Wilgy as his suspects. No strong reasoning, but that was his three.

Dom, don't be my uncle Sean's liver!
He drinks a lot, and he might need to get a transplant soon. This is serious business. The liver is only there as a placeholder until he gets a new one, just like your posts. I don't like em.

I partially agree with your assessment of Dom. I feel like he had some questions for Lorab, but a lot of the Fallout talk feels 50/50 to me (half interested in the topic, and half fluff/filler.


Aight, now to look at my role card.

Don't be a follower, BWT. Explain yourself. I have specifically commented on the issues that were disucssed in addition to Fallout talk.

I....explained myself in that post? That's pretty much the extent of my thoughts on you right now.

Pretty much anyone who I'm mildly suspicious of is someone who hasn't been super active yet and/or is posting a lot of filler. It's a Day 1 suspicion and we still have 16 hours before the poll ends. Still plenty of time for my feelings to change.

By this point, I do not see birdwithteeth11 as a Crooked Cop.

birdwithteeth has a dozen shotgun posts. I'll bet he's bad but forgetting what it's like dying early.

After getting lynched on Day 1 what feels like 20,000 times in a row, it's hard to forget that.

So far everything has been roses. This is a bit of a knock:

So shouldn't we lynch Scotty, then? I still don't get why you list a group of players, some of whom may have been pulling a baddie save, but you don't concentrate on the guy who was allegedly saved. Why only lis Scotty as an "and Scotty" at the end. I've always questioned the logic of going after players for saving a baddie when you haven't proven the person who wad saved was indeed bad.

On my phone will post as I can

No, timmer. We should not do that thing you mentioned.

I would like to vote Dom, Epi or the Klingon today.

Voting for Sokoth now. Could change, who knows if I'll have time to get back on to make a case or change it. If Epi or Dom get votes, I'll see if I can jump on that too.

Oh? Wilgy already voted Dom.

Voting Dom

Wait, what? Why?

I'm now several kinds of confused as to why you would change your vote so quickly. Why do you trust Wilgy that much?

...but not a big deal to me. A lot of people suspected Scotty.

That's page one of his posts. I don't see a big reason to lynch birdwithteeth11 today. I can do page 2 in a bit.

[birdwithteeth11]

Well for one thing, my new top suspicions are LoRab and Epi.

Epi is one person who I've been going back and forth on- for one, I agreed with his views on INH. For two, he's actually been the most vocal civ in the last phase, and when everyone started piling on Sokoth, it was pretty clear from an outside perspective that Sokoth was definitely a mislynch. Trust me, I was screaming. INH's voting pattern is pretty shit. But then again, so is Epi's. Why include Sokoth in talks with INH? I think INH looked much more damning, and if LoRab were to be bad, your choice to put the hammer down on Sokoth looks like someone that chose to vote there when a baddie teammate LoRab nervously exclaimed in the chat "Sokoth is onto me, let's take him down". This one is reaching possibly, but that's a scenario I want to look at the next day.

Do you suspect me or am I a civilian?

Whoopsadoodle.

INH's voting pattern is pretty shit. But then again, so is Epi's.

Tell me who does have good voting record. I'll wait.

Better yet, I'll go grab the only meaningful data regarding the voting records of living people for you:

Metalmarsh89
3
Quin (7), DFaraday (8), LoRab (10) 23%

That's it. What do you make of it?

What do you think of the case I laid out Epi? Instead of laughing over a potential "slip", Mr. 'My Keyboard must have a mind of its own this game'.

That should read as the most vocally civ. You sound civ, you really do. That was my reservation.

I'm not laughing, and there was nothing potential about that. You called me one of your "new top suspicions" and then called me "the most vocal civ."

For the sake of argument, let's accept your rephrasing. You say you meant I "read as the most vocally civ." That implies there exists such a thing as "the most vocally bad." Who, in your opinion, fits that description? If you contend that no one does or that there is no such thing, then what you claim you meant to say is inherently meaningless.

I'm confused here. Why do the phrases "most vocally civ" and "most vocally bad" mean anything? I just don't see how the amount of posts someone has is such a great determination of one's civness or badness.

[Epignosis]

Oh ffs. That was my entire point. It doesn't mean anything.

[Epignosis]

Also, keep in mind that LoRab was right to suspect MM and right to not suspect Wilgy. She's probably right about sig too, tbh. So what makes me so special that I'd somehow be bad AND the only read her gut was wrong on?

I'm especially surprised by this given that when I defended LoRab the other day, you seemed to back off.

Can you explain how you found out you had BTSC with Lorab as opposed to anybody else?

I'm neither confirming nor denying that I did have BTSC with LoRab in the first place. I don't really think I'd be allowed. I'm just saying that the logical progression of your thoughts up to that point made sense.

Airtight? I do not think that word means what you think it means. You still haven't even looked at it without your blunders on.

Airtight means exactly what I think it means. Don't patronize me, Scummer.

Linki: Epi, sure, I'll buy that at least one replacement is bad, no problem. But how does that give us a better chance of getting a baddie today? If 1 of 3 is bad, that's a 33% hit rate. That would leave 3 baddies among 6 non-replacements, a 50% hit rate!

So unless you can convince me there's incontrovertible proof 2 replacements are bad, then I think you're oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of useful stuff by limiting yourself to looking only at replacements.

If.

[Epignosis]

I want you all to look at Russ' post up there toward me. "So unless you can convince me there's incontrovertible proof 2 replacements are bad, then I think you're oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of useful stuff by limiting yourself to looking only at replacements."

Am I looking only at replacements? Am I ignoring a lot of "useful stuff?" What useful stuff is Russ talking about? He doesn't say. What useful stuff, Russ?

[Spacedaisy]

Now....anyone willing to gift me their item and I will gift you mine?

I'll take you up on this offer...

Okay. Thanks!

@HOST - do we have to wait until night to PM you and gift each other our items?

I guess not, but the swap won't take place until the end of Night 6 like normal. Also, please put Night 6 somewhere in the title of the PM so it doesn't get overlooked.

[Elohcin]

What line of work are you in BWT?

I work for Kroger as an assistant store manager at a local store in the area. Lower-level management in retail = Crazy, variable work hours from week to week sometimes.

The last job I had (outside my home) that had various work hours was when I worked at Chick-Fil-A as a teenager. I loved the job, I hated my schedule changing all the time. I always wondered why they did that in restaurants, grocery stores, and what not. Why not just give everyone the same predictable schedule every week? Wouldn't that relieve the manager/schedule maker of some stress? Being a manager, do you have an answer for this?

@ Russ - I see. Sorry, I always forget to go look at roles revealed on page 1. I bet it would help me out, huh

Linki: Thanks SD

[birdwithteeth11]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

What feelers have you sent out? If you have questions, I will answer them.

[birdwithteeth11]

I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

What makes you feel that that's the case? I agree that it's possible that one or some of them are not civilians, but how is it numerically impossible? Because I don't see how that's true.

[Epignosis]

I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

What makes you feel that that's the case? I agree that it's possible that one or some of them are not civilians, but how is it numerically impossible? Because I don't see how that's true.

Keep reading, pal.

[birdwithteeth11]

I've been a civ with BTSC a few times, I usually leave little unnoticeable hints, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lorab was killed for having BTSC. If she trusted the player and told them who she was they'd kill her at the first chance they got.

Scotty brings up a good point on Ying/Yang and riddles. If Shawn is bad at puzzles or inactvie then it doesn't matter, but if the riddles are really that hard perhaps that can help clue us in to who Ying/Yang are?

These are both good points. First, my question to everyone would be, did any of you get temporary BTSC with another player claiming to be a civ? If others claim they had BTSC with someone claiming to be civ, then its more likely that is what happened with Lorab. If not, I don't think it would be the case. I mean, what kind of role allows you a one-time temporary BTSC conversation?

For the second point, for some reason, I was thinking that the host(s) were the ones making the riddles. Did you read somewhere where it specifically said that Ying/Yang make up the riddles?

Now....anyone willing to gift me their item and I will gift you mine?

I have not had BTSC with anyone this game yet. Although I wouldn't mind it if someone wanted to chat with me.

[birdwithteeth11]

Oh ffs. That was my entire point. It doesn't mean anything.

Yeah, I'm more caught up and realized that was a straw-man argument. So I see your point on it.

I just also see Scotty 2.0's point on it as well. I think that argument can be used both ways. I think in a bubble, it is useful to look at the replacements for sure. I just think you're limiting yourself if you focus solely on the idea of just voting for one of those three players when there's a good chance that we have at least one baddie in the other group of 6.

[birdwithteeth11]

I want you all to look at Russ' post up there toward me. "So unless you can convince me there's incontrovertible proof 2 replacements are bad, then I think you're oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of useful stuff by limiting yourself to looking only at replacements."

Am I looking only at replacements? Am I ignoring a lot of "useful stuff?" What useful stuff is Russ talking about? He doesn't say. What useful stuff, Russ?

Well to be fair, you're doing what I would want to do at this stage of the game if I currently had the time: Go through and read up on everyone who is still alive. So I appreciate the contributions there.

Currently I think I'm just trying to wrap my head around what is going on. I do know I would like to hear more from both Russ and (moreso) Timmer. Because I did get a slight ping from the one post I quoted from Timmer.

I also want to hear more from DFaraday. We're starting to get into the later stages of the game and I don't have a strong read on him one way or the other. Which makes me feel uncomfortable.

[birdwithteeth11]

I think focusing on replacements being alignment indicative is a mistake. So far, it's Russ, DF and me that have come back. We were all announced as civ at death. We replaced into roles from players that went MIa. That's all. I know I can't help what rabbit has done before me.

That's true...in the early phases. It is no longer the early phases. It is now numerically impossible for all three replaced persons to be civilian. Impossible. So there is good reason to scrutinize the replacements at this stage.

I've given very little attention to DFaraday. I will now remedy that.

What makes you feel that that's the case? I agree that it's possible that one or some of them are not civilians, but how is it numerically impossible? Because I don't see how that's true.

Keep reading, pal.

Okay, I get the train of thought now.

I guess with over 24 hours still left in this phase, I don't have strong feelings yet. Plus I wasn't here at all for the last 2 IRL days. So I'm trying to get my feet wet again.

Thank god tomorrow is only a half day at work. I should be able to contribute a bit more tomorrow.

[Epignosis]

Oh ffs. That was my entire point. It doesn't mean anything.

Yeah, I'm more caught up and realized that was a straw-man argument. So I see your point on it.

I just also see Scotty 2.0's point on it as well. I think that argument can be used both ways. I think in a bubble, it is useful to look at the replacements for sure. I just think you're limiting yourself if you focus solely on the idea of just voting for one of those three players when there's a good chance that we have at least one baddie in the other group of 6.

I don't disagree- however, determining mafia among a crew of replacements is so much easier. First, you get two (or more!) players to read through. I think I'm the only one who has gone through the posts of the replaced people. They have different opinions and mindsets, and when you sub into a mafia spot, you have to reconcile that past some way. Scotty, for example, didn't even try, and I think rabbit made it easy for him to do that. Russ' situation is far more complex. His role is fourth hand. Second, all of the replacements have been with us before, and they were all good. So you get to compare a civilian mindset with a potentially mafia one, and the replacement has to deal with any potential discrepancies.

[birdwithteeth11]

Oh ffs. That was my entire point. It doesn't mean anything.

Yeah, I'm more caught up and realized that was a straw-man argument. So I see your point on it.

I just also see Scotty 2.0's point on it as well. I think that argument can be used both ways. I think in a bubble, it is useful to look at the replacements for sure. I just think you're limiting yourself if you focus solely on the idea of just voting for one of those three players when there's a good chance that we have at least one baddie in the other group of 6.

I don't disagree- however, determining mafia among a crew of replacements is so much easier. First, you get two (or more!) players to read through. I think I'm the only one who has gone through the posts of the replaced people. They have different opinions and mindsets, and when you sub into a mafia spot, you have to reconcile that past some way. Scotty, for example, didn't even try, and I think rabbit made it easy for him to do that. Russ' situation is far more complex. His role is fourth hand. Second, all of the replacements have been with us before, and they were all good. So you get to compare a civilian mindset with a potentially mafia one, and the replacement has to deal with any potential discrepancies.

Fair enough.

Tomorrow when I'm a bit more awake, I will read through each of the replacements and comment on what I see.

[Epignosis]

For example, rabbit8 is the kind of player Scotty would be eager to eliminate, as per his usual M.O.

But he's now replaced into rabbit8's role. There has to be a cognitive dissonance there. So let's see what Scotty said about rabbit in his past life. This was Day 3:

After looking back through Night 1, the following people posted:
Matt, Epi, sig, Russ, Wilgy, Dom, bwt, DF, me, and BDH.

Those that didn't:
nijuu, Elo, LoRab, Quin, rabbit, Sokoth, SVS (or whoever was filling in for her), and timmer.

I think that 2 or all 3 baddies could conceivably be in the latter list, if we're to believe that mafia failed to submit a kill night 1. (And they would not have done it on purpose on N1...I don't care who you are, you're not gonna skimp out on a free kill N1 if you are bad).
However, I also know from previous experience that sometimes baddies don't send in a kill until later in the phase when everyone agrees upon it. So that doesn't completely disqualify the former list from being bad. Obviously, we can rule out DF 1.0 and Russ 1.0.
Wilgy, sig, bwt, me and BDH posted in the second half of the phase before End of Night, so I think that's at least a good look for us. Which would lump Matt, Epi and Dom into the second list (All 3 of which are on my suspect list).


Makes sense to me. I would like to start widdling down from that list.

Anyone else see the logic here, or is it just me?

I'm playing this game and will be able to pick up and actually read the thread Friday, in case anyone is asking me anything.... ?????

Yeah, I'll ask you something:
where r u. You said you'd catch up, and I see you posted in another game, so I know you're still there somewhere.

Adding you to my suspect pool, because honestly I forgot you were even playing this game.

rabbits and marmots and Matts, oh my!!! (and epi)

Two posts where good Scotty suspected rabbit8. Scotty is now rabbit8.

Let's put Scotty aside for a moment:

Given what is known about the roles, do you believe rabbit8 was a good role or a bad role- why or why not?

[Epignosis]

I voted Scotty, but I could easily vote Russ.

[BigDamnHero]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

What feelers have you sent out? If you have questions, I will answer them.

That last part was more metaphorical, than literal...cuz I really haven't asked you anything directly. I just read through your posts and can't infer/decipher/pick-up-on anything. You just read as a complete blank to me and I've never realy had that happen before. I usually get SOME glimpse (whether correctly or incorrectly) about something. And I should make it clear, this is more about ME reading you than anything directed at you/your actions. But since we are having this discourse, what are your thoughts about our inability to seek out baddies in this game? Are we being manipulated?...Do we just suck at it?...Are the civs just more active making it harder to find the mafia crews?

[Epignosis]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

What feelers have you sent out? If you have questions, I will answer them.

That last part was more metaphorical, than literal...cuz I really haven't asked you anything directly. I just read through your posts and can't infer/decipher/pick-up-on anything. You just read as a complete blank to me and I've never realy had that happen before. I usually get SOME glimpse (whether correctly or incorrectly) about something. And I should make it clear, this is more about ME reading you than anything directed at you/your actions. But since we are having this discourse, what are your thoughts about our inability to seek out baddies in this game? Are we being manipulated?...Do we just suck at it?...Are the civs just more active making it harder to find the mafia crews?

Given the numbers, we're fucked, but that doesn't mean we can't go down swinging.

[timmer]

Considering that mm voted for Sig, I'd think that my choosing not to vote for him yesterday would be seen in a good light, not a bad one.

It does in hindsight, but I'm not sure about that moment in time. To me, it looks more like you did a 180 rather than changed your mind due to new evidence. Unless I missed something where you had suspected MM previously.

Not at all, I jumped on the case. Look, you know how much time I have to play mafia these days. I cannot and will never any time soon, be a lead player. I can't follow every post, that's just not my game, and it hasn't been for some time.

So people should realize that this is who I am now; a player who picks up other people's cases and evaluates them. So if I seem to have swerved a few times, that's why.

[Scotty]

And Epi continues to disregard my questions. Then votes me, because.........

Uh, I'm actually unsure. Because my previous self suspected rabbit and since I no longer think rabbit is suspicious because I am rabbit, that's suspicious?

Epi, your logic trains are spaghetti this game.

You say it's mathematically impossible for all replacements to be civ. To back yourself up, you say that sig is Shawn and BDH is civ.

Oh wait, that's not confirmed. Neither of those are confirmed. As a matter of fact, I think sig is Yang, but that doesn't matter because he's not a mathematic part of the equation. He is a variable, not the rule. And BDH? Where is he confirmed civ? How do you know he is civ? I mean, you must KNOW he is civ based on some info, or else that wouldn't be mathematically confirmed.

Why did you stop suspecting INH? Or do you? You continue to ignore my prodding to talk about one of the people you said you would vote for. Why is that?

What do you think of timmer, who has had 2 votes for some time? I can't remember the last time you have mentioned him, let alone comment on a case.

Oh, out of all the living people you've looked at, you pick me.





Is it because I'm voting for your teammate and this is your way of defending him?

[Scotty]

Considering that mm voted for Sig, I'd think that my choosing not to vote for him yesterday would be seen in a good light, not a bad one.

It does in hindsight, but I'm not sure about that moment in time. To me, it looks more like you did a 180 rather than changed your mind due to new evidence. Unless I missed something where you had suspected MM previously.

Not at all, I jumped on the case. Look, you know how much time I have to play mafia these days. I cannot and will never any time soon, be a lead player. I can't follow every post, that's just not my game, and it hasn't been for some time.

So people should realize that this is who I am now; a player who picks up other people's cases and evaluates them. So if I seem to have swerved a few times, that's why.

So should we not hold you accountable for your actions then? You might not have the time you wish you had to play and build cases, and excuse yourself with the type of persona that drives in the backseat, but tell that to the timmer of Day 2 who started the vote train for my previous self. You helped mislynch me, and sure showed that "lead player" to me.

You might very well not have as much time to play, which is perfectly acceptable in and of itself. But that's not what you're arguing. You're arguing that you are inherently not someone who leads.

Which is bullsuit

[timmer]

Scotty why are you disregarding the other suspicions other while ignoring the simple fact that civs change their minds all of the time and often end up voting the wrong way. It's like you ate determined to push this Trumpian notion that you and only you know the truth and everyone else is wrong.

Look at it from both sides.

Or is it that your teammate is one of the others being looked at today, and this is your attempt at saving them? Honestly, why won't you consider the flip to your case? It smells of something.

[timmer]

Wow. If I were holding to some kind of persona, and bad, I'd have not stuck my head out on day 2.But I do, rarely, get a day off. So now you ate attempting to use the fact that I had a day off and used it to get more caught up than usual and actually think for myself against me.

Scotty, you need to take off thy blinders.

[Scotty]

Epi, what is your take on BWT? I can't seem to get a read on him. It's like I send feelers out and get NO RESPONSE back...

What feelers have you sent out? If you have questions, I will answer them.

That last part was more metaphorical, than literal...cuz I really haven't asked you anything directly. I just read through your posts and can't infer/decipher/pick-up-on anything. You just read as a complete blank to me and I've never realy had that happen before. I usually get SOME glimpse (whether correctly or incorrectly) about something. And I should make it clear, this is more about ME reading you than anything directed at you/your actions. But since we are having this discourse, what are your thoughts about our inability to seek out baddies in this game? Are we being manipulated?...Do we just suck at it?...Are the civs just more active making it harder to find the mafia crews?

Given the numbers, we're fucked, but that doesn't mean we can't go down swinging.

No we're not.

Hey Epi, awesome that all BDH had to do was 'hey, what does everyone think of BWT" and you do a full analysis on page 1 of his posts. Cool beans. I actually agree with your sleuthing and that bwt does look better for it.

Now do that for timmer and INH pretty please. I'm putting my feelers out and all that. I'll buy you a metaphoric beer. But domestic draft only, I'm not the captain of the Enterprise for gods sake

[Scotty]

Scotty why are you disregarding the other suspicions other while ignoring the simple fact that civs change their minds all of the time and often end up voting the wrong way. It's like you ate determined to push this Trumpian notion that you and only you know the truth and everyone else is wrong.

Look at it from both sides.

Or is it that your teammate is one of the others being looked at today, and this is your attempt at saving them? Honestly, why won't you consider the flip to your case? It smells of something.

You're the only one with votes (except for me). Who exactly would I be defending?

I'm all ears, mate. I specifically asked you to give me a case on someone, and I'll start looking elsewhere. Meanwhile, you're still defending yourself by telling me I'm tunneling.

Ok I'm tunneling, what else is new

[timmer]

Once you have blinders on, anything, ANYTHING, can seem like a baddie at work. Hell we've even got Epig called out for being a vocal civ, lol. Take a second. Look at this from a safe remove. You have either convinced yourself that I am bad and are now unwilling to consider the alternative out of some kind of pride? Or you are bad and trying to save someone. If you are civ, you should be stepping back and THINKING.

[timmer]

Scotty do you know what one of the most fun things I like to do as a baddie is? Make someone defend himself, over and over again, and then say "you aren't even making cases, you're just defending yourself".

You want me to make a case but simultaneously ate forcing me to defend a vote I made in good faith. And you are smart enough to know that defending isn't just for people with current votes in a poll

[Scotty]

Wow. If I were holding to some kind of persona, and bad, I'd have not stuck my head out on day 2.But I do, rarely, get a day off. So now you ate attempting to use the fact that I had a day off and used it to get more caught up than usual and actually think for myself against me.

Scotty, you need to take off thy blinders.

I'm not using your day off against you.

You led the case on me day 2. You were the first person to place a vote on me, followed by Epi. After several long posts building a case.

I'm not talking about having time, I'm talking about your philosophy in that last post talking about "who you are" as a Mafia player and showing you the exception.

Once you have blinders on, anything, ANYTHING, can seem like a baddie at work. Hell we've even got Epig called out for being a vocal civ, lol. Take a second. Look at this from a safe remove. You have either convinced yourself that I am bad and are now unwilling to consider the alternative out of some kind of pride? Or you are bad and trying to save someone. If you are civ, you should be stepping back and THINKING.

Yes, I am aware it is possible I am completely wrong. I'll take a step back.

Let's say we're friends in this game.

Who do you think is suspicious? And why?

I don't mean to bully you, timmer. And of course I would feel very bad if you are a tired civ. In the game context, I see compounding reasons that you are bad. But I will consider the alternative. I will.