RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epignosis, who is Jay's partner?

Scotty.

Great, how about the other one?

Are there three mafia?

It's more likely than two or four.

[Epignosis]

My Home Alone game had two mafia and they won- even when the game was broken in favor of the civilians.

That's how bad civilians are on this site.

[Marmot]

My Home Alone game had two mafia and they won- even when the game was broken in favor of the civilians.

That's how bad civilians are on this site.

We're not that bad. Have you seen how many players in this game played in the Mafia Championships? We've got an All-Star lineup right here!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My Home Alone game had two mafia and they won- even when the game was broken in favor of the civilians.

That's how bad civilians are on this site.

I believe it. I don't think this game has two mafia.

15 players >>> 12 vs 3 / 11 vs 3 vs 1 -- those sound fine.

13 vs 2 / 12 vs 2 vs 1 -- those sound terrible.

11 vs. 4 / 10 vs. 4 vs. 1 -- those sound terrible.

G-Man's side mission in sign-ups has 4 mafia out of 19 players.

[Marmot]

Tom Sawyer = reywaS moT

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tom Sawyer = reywaS moT

Oh.

[Marmot]

Epignosis, vote for Jay.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MM, what do you think of Wilgy's behavior since he replaced S~V~S?

[Marmot]

MM, what do you think of Wilgy's behavior since he replaced S~V~S?

He hasn't exhibited any of his towntells, but he hadn't as DrWilgy 1.0 either.

I think he's a civilian though. What do you think of this list he posted last night?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MM, what do you think of Wilgy's behavior since he replaced S~V~S?

He hasn't exhibited any of his towntells, but he hadn't as DrWilgy 1.0 either.

I think he's a civilian though. What do you think of this list he posted last night?

I think he put random names into a post. I don't think there was a good reason to associate Golden and INH as team mates while they were arguing with each other over page after page about strategic concepts. I have no idea what his gripe was with Ricochet. After he played so lazily at Wilgy 1.0, he'd have no choice but to maintain that image as Wilgy 2.0 when he draws a mafia role. He is still doing fuck all, but he's pretending to have "reads" in the midst of that fuck all.

I could also see him killing either Golden or Ricochet to help facilitate his current vote today. "Welp, my 'suspect' died, I guess I'm stuck voting for JJJ" -- while most of the remaining players are already frothing at the mouth waiting to click the JJJ button. It just reeks of fakeness and opportunism.

Combine that with the fact that I think there are valid reasons to town read everyone in this game except Wilgy 2.0 and reywaS, and it makes my suspect pool pretty obvious. Them.

What makes you think he's a civilian?

[Marmot]

MM, what do you think of Wilgy's behavior since he replaced S~V~S?

He hasn't exhibited any of his towntells, but he hadn't as DrWilgy 1.0 either.

I think he's a civilian though. What do you think of this list he posted last night?

I think he put random names into a post. I don't think there was a good reason to associate Golden and INH as team mates while they were arguing with each other over page after page about strategic concepts. I have no idea what his gripe was with Ricochet. After he played so lazily at Wilgy 1.0, he'd have no choice but to maintain that image as Wilgy 2.0 when he draws a mafia role. He is still doing fuck all, but he's pretending to have "reads" in the midst of that fuck all.

I could also see him killing either Golden or Ricochet to help facilitate his current vote today. "Welp, my 'suspect' died, I guess I'm stuck voting for JJJ" -- while most of the remaining players are already frothing at the mouth waiting to click the JJJ button. It just reeks of fakeness and opportunism.

Combine that with the fact that I think there are valid reasons to town read everyone in this game except Wilgy 2.0 and reywaS, and it makes my suspect pool pretty obvious. Them.

What makes you think he's a civilian?

I forgot that DrWilgy can't be a vig, I take back my townread.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I forgot that DrWilgy can't be a vig, I take back my townread.

Considering this, am I then correct to assume you're willing to view him as a mafia candidate?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei, if you're unable to entirely catch up, you could probably still communicate in real-time while you're around.

[Epignosis]

If reywaS hasn't been around, then he can't be the serial killer, but that also means that, if he's bad, he hasn't been around to kill in the capacity of mafia either. Someone else would have to be doing the killing.

DrWilgy has been ruled out as the serial killer too.

An ideal lynch will land on someone who could be either killer. 3J, you fit that criteria, but I'd rather talk than tunnel.

Looking over your list, there's some mild overlap. MM and INH are both possible mafia and the most likely to be serial killers, according to you. If you were to vote one of the two, which one would it be, and why?

[DrWilgy]

JJJ you confuse me. Why do you think I don't care? I've cared this entire game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If reywaS hasn't been around, then he can't be the serial killer, but that also means that, if he's bad, he hasn't been around to kill in the capacity of mafia either. Someone else would have to be doing the killing.

DrWilgy has been ruled out as the serial killer too.

I can't confirm whether reywaS has been present. It only takes one log-in. Wilgy 2.0 can't be the serial killer, but he can deliver the Night 2 mafia kill. MP wasn't replaced until Day 2, meaning he could have delivered the Night 1 kill. Regardless of reywaS, there's been a necessary presence between both of them to account for both nights.

An ideal lynch will land on someone who could be either killer.

I don't agree. We still don't know with certainty a SK exists, and I don't think the evidence pointing toward any SK candidate is strong enough to make a deliberate pursuit of that lynch a confident matter. I want to lynch a mafia candidate and only a mafia candidate. I don't give a crap if people feel this is inconsistent or convenient either, because I am clearly well within everyone's perspective of mafia candidacy.

Looking over your list, there's some mild overlap. MM and INH are both possible mafia and the most likely to be serial killers, according to you. If you were to vote one of the two, which one would it be, and why?

Between those two, I think I'd prefer to vote INH. The case for him being a town read is weaker than MM's in my opinion (since it's primarily based on meta), and I think the Golden kill implicates him more than anyone else.

I'd rather vote for Wilgy/reywaS than INH. If nobody listens and we end up voting INH, I'd participate begrudgingly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ you confuse me. Why do you think I don't care? I've cared this entire game.

I believe that you care now.

[DrWilgy]

JJJ you confuse me. Why do you think I don't care? I've cared this entire game.

I believe that you care now.

Jay, I've always cared. No need for the sass. Sass won't bring harambe back.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ you confuse me. Why do you think I don't care? I've cared this entire game.

I believe that you care now.

Jay, I've always cared. No need for the sass. Sass won't bring harambe back.

I didn't vote for you "because you don't care".

[DrWilgy]

JJJ you confuse me. Why do you think I don't care? I've cared this entire game.

I believe that you care now.

Jay, I've always cared. No need for the sass. Sass won't bring harambe back.

I didn't vote for you "because you don't care".

I know. I never said anything about the vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Then what are you talking about?

[Quin]

Quin, do you really believe that Wilgy placing one vote away from the larger wagons is good reason to remove him from candidacy to be mafia? That strikes me as an incredibly dubious thing.

I didn't remove him anything. You're removing people from it based on a single reason to town read them, which I think is bogus considering I can think of more reasons to scum read many players than town read them. Playing by your logic, however, I think my reason for 'removing him' is a good one. I'm more inclined to scum read anyone who tries to discredit alternative votes than scum read him for sticking to his own suspicion.

The only player I have removed from candidacy for just one reason is leetic, because multiple reasons are impossible with leetic. I believe you agreed with my rationale for him. For everyone else I have provided multiple reasons.

If Wilgy showed any actual investment in his "alternative vote" I might understand your perspective. He slanked out of the spotlight with that vote, and today he's jumped right onto the easiest wagon available without a word. That doesn't bother you?

I guess his vote for you isn't ideal, I'd have liked a case from him to back it up. But as it stands, I don't think it's a bus, and you're sitting lower on my rainbow list than he is.

I'm not bothered by his Day 2. From my perspective, the only reason his vote appears to be so uninvested is because of how meaty the Quin 1.0/3J trains were in comparison. In a less active game than this, it'd be put down as Wilgy being Wilgy, and that's how I'm going to perceive it.

People who suspect me to whatever degree: I have a request/demand for you.

Tell me who my supposed living team mate is.

marmot. I think you have a weak reason to add him to your list of town reads and his voting pattern so far is suspicious.

Sorry about my inactivity, I have been reading, but uni work demotivated me a lot from this today. I'll be sporadically active tomorrow.

Alright, tell me this Quin:

If you think Marmot shouldn't get credit for his Day 1 vote because the Scotty lynch was "inevitable", okay. For the sake of argument I'll go with that.

Why then did I try to "save" the same guy? He's gone anyway the next day, so why am I willfully making myself look like a doofus?

It's hardly a save considering every time I put marmot's name forward INH gets put forward as his personal meatshield. It doesn't look like marmot's going to ever be lynched at this rate.

Will you lynch the marmot with me today?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I guess his vote for you isn't ideal, I'd have liked a case from him to back it up. But as it stands, I don't think it's a bus, and you're sitting lower on my rainbow list than he is.

I'm not bothered by his Day 2. From my perspective, the only reason his vote appears to be so uninvested is because of how meaty the Quin 1.0/3J trains were in comparison. In a less active game than this, it'd be put down as Wilgy being Wilgy, and that's how I'm going to perceive it.

"Wilgy being Wilgy" is a cross-alignment phenomenon. That's not "credit". It's hesitation on your part. And I think it's a critical mistake you're making.

It's hardly a save considering every time I put marmot's name forward INH gets put forward as his personal meatshield. It doesn't look like marmot's going to ever be lynched at this rate.

I don't understand your meaning here. I'm not talking about INH. I'll restate my question:

You suggest Marmot bussed Scotty.

I clearly wanted Marmot to vote for INH at the end of Day 1.

He didn't do as I asked, and he cast suspicion on me for asking it.

So, in the universe you're suggesting where Marmot and I are team mates -- Marmot hammered the same baddie I was trying to save. My team mate and I are directly at odds. Moreover, if you think the Scotty lynch was inevitable, then why do you think I tried to prevent it? The exact opposite of what Marmot did. I don't think this makes sense and I am trying to illustrate that for you.

Will you lynch the marmot with me today?

Probably not. I'm not even sure I'd vote for him out of self-preservation. If you can lay out a comprehensive case against him I'd be willing to look it over. To this point I don't really understand why you read him the way you do.

[DrWilgy]

Question... Who has stated they are civ reading the talking players? I believe it was Marmot and Quin... There may have been more.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Question... Who has stated they are civ reading the talking players? I believe it was Marmot and Quin... There may have been more.

I did. Why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tidbit for y'all to WIFOM about that I think ought to be telling to you:

My vote on DrWilgy isn't some typical maneuver against a low-poster easy target that I am trying to capitalize on. I consciously removed him from my own SK list based on logic that nobody else had previously provided. I didn't have to do that; I didn't have to provide a reason that'd dissuade others from my own preferred lynch.

Similarly, I appreciate that MM brought up a similar point in defense of reywaS as a SK candidate despite me having just called him a top-end SK candidate himself. If MM is the SK, he doesn't have any reason to eliminate other potential lynches from the suspect pool like that. This makes me less inclined to suspect MM as the SK.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If it isn't clear, I still want to lynch either Wilgy or reywaS because I think they are notably more likely to be mafia-aligned than anyone else. I don't think Wilgy is the SK, and if MM is right that reywaS hasn't been here at all recently then he isn't either.

I still want them dead. Any case against a SK candidate is going to be reliant upon tenuous evidence (night kill analysis), and the likelihood of getting that right is mathematically lower (1 out of 9). This is why I don't care about SK candidates right now when I discuss my lynch preferences.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The only alternative I'm going to consider, unless someone shows me some convincing shit, to Wilgy and reywaS is INH. At least I think there's some dual mafia-SK candidacy in him, and Epignosis raised a good point yesterday regarding Scotty's self-preservation behavior at the end of Day 1.

[Quin]

I guess his vote for you isn't ideal, I'd have liked a case from him to back it up. But as it stands, I don't think it's a bus, and you're sitting lower on my rainbow list than he is.

I'm not bothered by his Day 2. From my perspective, the only reason his vote appears to be so uninvested is because of how meaty the Quin 1.0/3J trains were in comparison. In a less active game than this, it'd be put down as Wilgy being Wilgy, and that's how I'm going to perceive it.

"Wilgy being Wilgy" is a cross-alignment phenomenon. That's not "credit". It's hesitation on your part. And I think it's a critical mistake you're making.

It's not. It's typical Wilgy behaviour, mixed with an action that reads civ to me. Even if it was hesitation, 'hesitant' to scum read someone trumps 'confident' to scum read someone.

It's hardly a save considering every time I put marmot's name forward INH gets put forward as his personal meatshield. It doesn't look like marmot's going to ever be lynched at this rate.

I don't understand your meaning here. I'm not talking about INH. I'll restate my question:

You suggest Marmot bussed Scotty.

I clearly wanted Marmot to vote for INH at the end of Day 1.

He didn't do as I asked, and he cast suspicion on me for asking it.

So, in the universe you're suggesting where Marmot and I are team mates -- Marmot hammered the same baddie I was trying to save. My team mate and I are directly at odds. Moreover, if you think the Scotty lynch was inevitable, then why do you think I tried to prevent it? The exact opposite of what Marmot did. I don't think this makes sense and I am trying to illustrate that for you.

Any suspicion the marmot has thrown upon you seems to have fizzled out quickly. Why didn't you do the exact same thing your teammate did? Because that would be stupid.

Will you lynch the marmot with me today?

Probably not. I'm not even sure I'd vote for him out of self-preservation. If you can lay out a comprehensive case against him I'd be willing to look it over. To this point I don't really understand why you read him the way you do.

I've made my case against him quite clear. I can ISO him properly tonight, but my gripe is mainly within his voting pattern. It's flimsy, contradictory, and weakly justified. Day 1, he voted Scotty allthewhile he was nodding along to his sussing of Quin 1.0. Day 2, he sat his vote on you as a 'pressure vote' for most of the phase, (I do not understand how a pressure vote could have possibly done anything for anyone at the time) and decided all of a sudden that you'd changed his mind. As far as I'm concerned that was a premeditated baddie move.

[Quin]

I forgot to colour my posts, but you'll figure it out, JumpingJollyJack.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've made my case against him quite clear. I can ISO him properly tonight, but my gripe is mainly within his voting pattern. It's flimsy, contradictory, and weakly justified. Day 1, he voted Scotty allthewhile he was nodding along to his sussing of Quin 1.0. Day 2, he sat his vote on you as a 'pressure vote' for most of the phase, (I do not understand how a pressure vote could have possibly done anything for anyone at the time) and decided all of a sudden that you'd changed his mind. As far as I'm concerned that was a premeditated baddie move.

Fair beefs. MM, talk about this stuff.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because that would be stupid.

Apparently it wouldn't be. *remembers for next time*

I have a feeling this game will go down as a great lesson in WIFOM. The prevailing wisdom around here seems to be: never ever ever listen to anything that is WIFOM ever, it's always meaningless and unreadable and I refuse to listen to it.

[Quin]

Because that would be stupid.

Apparently it wouldn't be. *remembers for next time*

I have a feeling this game will go down as a great lesson in WIFOM. The prevailing wisdom around here seems to be: never ever ever listen to anything that is WIFOM ever, it's always meaningless and unreadable and I refuse to listen to it.

Maybe I'll learn what WIFOM means

[Marmot]

I've made my case against him quite clear. I can ISO him properly tonight, but my gripe is mainly within his voting pattern. It's flimsy, contradictory, and weakly justified. Day 1, he voted Scotty allthewhile he was nodding along to his sussing of Quin 1.0. Day 2, he sat his vote on you as a 'pressure vote' for most of the phase, (I do not understand how a pressure vote could have possibly done anything for anyone at the time) and decided all of a sudden that you'd changed his mind. As far as I'm concerned that was a premeditated baddie move.

That's inaccurate. I actually said I think Scotty is mafia that Quin 1.0 was not his partner on Day 1. I later said I like Scotty's comment to Quin, at which point my read started to shift.

Also I voted Beck to start Day 2. I later voted Jay, but moved my vote to you less than an hour later. The pressure vote did put Jay in the lynch lead at the time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's inaccurate. I actually said I think Scotty is mafia that Quin 1.0 was not his partner on Day 1. I later said I like Scotty's comment to Quin, at which point my read started to shift.

Could you bring out the posts that illustrate this progression?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The best case I can think of to label MM a mafia member is to call him a team mate of INH. In that scenario, the two largest wagons at the end of Day 1 would have been scum/scum, thus rendering MM's hammer vote less valuable. Indeed he'd have been sparing one team mate for another who flipped town at first. I do think this theory still requires some reaching, but evidence exists.

I'd very much like to know how MM and INH read each other right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

INH where u go bae

[DrWilgy]

JJJ I would be more inclined to believe you if you had stated "Let's lynch Wilgy for being afk"

[Marmot]

That's inaccurate. I actually said I think Scotty is mafia that Quin 1.0 was not his partner on Day 1. I later said I like Scotty's comment to Quin, at which point my read started to shift.

Could you bring out the posts that illustrate this progression?

Why yes! This one and this one.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ I would be more inclined to believe you if you had stated "Let's lynch Wilgy for being afk"

You haven't been AFK.

Why did you vote for me?

[Epignosis]

I just voted INH.

[Marmot]

The best case I can think of to label MM a mafia member is to call him a team mate of INH. In that scenario, the two largest wagons at the end of Day 1 would have been scum/scum, thus rendering MM's hammer vote less valuable. Indeed he'd have been sparing one team mate for another who flipped town at first. I do think this theory still requires some reaching, but evidence exists.

I'd very much like to know how MM and INH read each other right now.

We've already talked about this, sort of.

But to be transparent about it, I am neutral on inh being mafia. But here, have a rainbow list.


Sloonei
Epignosis
Quin 2.0
insertnamehere
leetic
DrWilgy 2.0
JaggedJimmyJay
reywaS

[Marmot]

I just voted INH.

I'd like to know why.

[Epignosis]

I just voted INH.

I'd like to know why.

I was reading through INH. It's a small thing, but:

And I'm very rarely 100% sure of anyone's alignment. Although, if I am, it's probably Epignosis. And I've been right about him for the last two games.

Yeah, you really got me with that, "He's either Shawn or a confused civilian but totally not Yin oh no wait he's Yin."

You should be a politician.

I thought you were Yin ever since my team failed to NK you, I just didn't announce so in the thread.

INH made like he was some expert on me. When I called him on it, he raised the fact that he was bad in that game...which was the entire point of my response.

Since then, he's called me good. That doesn't sit right with me looking back.

[S~V~S]

Sorry I missed this. I really wanted to play, but no wi fi = no fun. Good luck to my replacement (if they still live, lol)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's inaccurate. I actually said I think Scotty is mafia that Quin 1.0 was not his partner on Day 1. I later said I like Scotty's comment to Quin, at which point my read started to shift.

Could you bring out the posts that illustrate this progression?

Why yes! This one and this one.

This does look like an authentic series of thoughts. I don't know that you'd be inclined to flop around on the Quin read like that as a baddie, since the latter example carries an implied positive for Scotty -- the same guy you were about to murder. It looks more like you were considering isolated points as they came to you and making judgments, which is a town look.



Whaddya think, Quin?

[Quin]

If I'm looking at post histories, it'll have to wait a few hours. I'll probably want to be more in depth than I can be while phone posting.

I need to sort out my feelings towards the INH wagon. I do keep coming back to his 'lynch jay, if good, lynch quin' contingency which doesn't sit well with me at all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My proposed Day 3 lynch is 3J.

The only people I townread right now are Epi and Sloonei. Everybody else I have conflicting feelings towards.

What changed?

[Epignosis]

I'm bored and drinking. Where's the talk?

[Golden]

I would talk but I'm guessing you aren't interested in off topic chit chat.