Mass Effect Mafia (END)

[Jackofhearts2005]

@SVS
http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthrea ... ost8832465
http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthrea ... ost8833863
http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthrea ... ost8829875
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 67#p356067

And of course the post you quoted, one of the rainbows was colored (probably on mobile) and the other was not (probably on PC).

The "rainbow lie" arguement is without merit. I'm more than capable of providing a "rainbow list" without color and the core of the argument is that I didn't actually make a rainbow list in the quick reply because that would have meant doing it without color.

Dom's logic goes:
Bad assumption->Therefore Jack is lying->Therefore Jack is bad. He's been stuck there ever since.

Your logic goes:
Bad assumption->Therefore Jack is lying->Jack is lying to act like he's contributing when he's not->Therefore Jack is bad.

Considering I have almost twice as many posts as you have and have produced far more content than you in terms of reads, arguments and meta, is that really your argument against me? That I'm pretending to play this game?



You want me to focus on Silver. Fine. Let's focus on Silver. What do you think of Silver? Do you think that he is pretending to be mad to cover that he is not contributing? Do you think that his tone is far more similar to his bad Hybridity performance I linked to instead of his townie performance in Phenom? He died early in both. An ISO of those games won't take long.

What do you think of the fact that basically all the Syndicate players town read Silver by Day 2 in Phenom but nobody seems to be town reading him here? Is that alignment indicative?

[Jackofhearts2005]

EBWOP:
Switch the PC and mobile bits

[Long Con]

Third request: Restate your concerns or questions without weasel words and I will address them.

Dom, I can't remember your questions either. This shit between you and Jack feels completely muddled.

Please Please Please just start over a little with a SIMPLE post that is structured precisely like this:

Jack, I have some questions for you.

1. <insert question 1 here>
2. <insert question 2 here>
...and so on.

Then, Jack, you make a post that just answers the questions, by the numbers, without equivocating, deflecting, or trying to render moot. Answer them as completely as possible.

Fucking finish this, guys.

[Long Con]

And Dom, I get that you have probably restated your questions a few times. Just please do so again, one last time, for clarity's sake.

[CaptainNifty]

Regarding wild speculation of Nifty as mafia, don't you think he would have killed me instead of Bob? I'm known for tunneling on town Nifty (though I think I've gotten better about this) so I'm dangerous for scum Nifty to have around.

I would have honestly killed bob night 1. A syndicate member tonight, probably MP. Then killed you night 3. I would have had an rb lock you down or a misdirector/busdriver keep you in check. Honestly, these days, I might just let you hang yourself. I'm trying desperately not to tunnel you. I think the worst is when you and I both reach midgame and can't seem to see eye to eye and we're both town. I think that's actually where most of our confrontations have happened (though we often do the same thing when your scum).

That being said, I think I've been scum and you've been town only once or twice. I've rarely gotten scum roles, so on the one hand it's hard to pick out my scum behavior, on the other I feel ridiculously awkward being scum.

I have some concerns myself, but it's early in the game so I'm delaying judgement, there are better options I think. The problem is that all the other people that I think are good options are also being pushed by people who I think are good candidates for a lynch.

I feel this way as well. It's why I was nervous voting for epi. gfish was the biggest proponent, and while I agreed with his reasoning I also think he's likely scum. It's the same with silver. I'd be willing to vote for him, but I don't like that Jack is the one pushing for that vote, and as you say most of this is just based off his posting, which could be modified from how he usually post just due to the nature of this game.

Two mafias though. That eliminates alot of that, " but s/he's defending/accusing person x" confusion.

This was my operating assumption when I was voting epi. gfish and epi were both scum, but gfish had better "evidence".

I don't like a lot of things about Silver. Would you be willing to switch to Silver Lantern.

Sure. You got some reason besides his bombasity to vote for him?

*Pretty sure this is all kinds of out of order.

[gfishfunk]

Long Con:

1. Do you think Epi is telling the truth about his claim?

2. Your vote is on Epi now, do you think Epi is a good lynch for the day?

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

I am asking now because Epi essentially stated that you and Dyslexicon were likely scum affiliated that disbelieved his claim.

He seems to think (and he can correct me on this) that I genuinely roleblocked him because I backed off after getting a claim.

@Dr.Wilgy - this is the sort of thing that I look for when eliciting a claim. Not this exactly, of course, but this sort of thing. Someone claims, it comes to light that the person was lying or not, and how people react to the claim. This is no worse or better than rainbow lists, top scum picks, or asking every single person if they want to lynch gfish or raven this phase. Scratch that, its better than the last one.

[Long Con]

Obviously many of the HCR folks are assuming I am scum, and I have no problems with it cause if it keeps other townies alive, I am for it. You know the best argument for me being town? I am still alive. You'd think that with 2 mafias whichever mafia I was not on would have hit me last night. But since I am town, both sides assumed the other mafia would kill me, and neither did. That's why I am town.

I really don't see why any of us should assume one of the two Mafia teams would have tried to kill you on Night 1.

[gfishfunk]

We'll several things happened while I was offline.

@Epi - interesting move. So you want us to Lynch Long Con? I might be down for it. Got to think on it. Long Con was one I read as slight green.

@Silver - I'm not overly concerned currently that you are skating or are too passive. I would love to hear some reads. How about you get off the defensive and talk about someone who isn't silver?

@other people - am I forgetting a question addressed to me? I just read through several pages.

Actually, on that note: vote silver lantern. Post something that doesn't have to do with your townness or scuminess in the game. And if you just post about how awful I am, I'll simply golf clap for you as classic deflection.

[Long Con]

Long Con:

1. Do you think Epi is telling the truth about his claim?

I'm 50-50 on that. The other option being that he actually is Sovereign or the Illusive Man and he thinks he got targeted, and this is his attempt to 'dissipate' any negative repercussions.

2. Your vote is on Epi now, do you think Epi is a good lynch for the day?

Absolutely. I would vote for The Geth if 'The Geth' were literally on the poll. If Epi is The Geth, then he's going to side with the Reapers. I have no doubt about that, because I believe that's the smartest move. That's what I would do.

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

No, I think that a mosaic of information that consists of all those things is what's best. No single type of info is better than several types.

I am asking now because Epi essentially stated that you and Dyslexicon were likely scum affiliated that disbelieved his claim.

He seems to think (and he can correct me on this) that I genuinely roleblocked him because I backed off after getting a claim.

I feel like the roleblock thing is not all that relevant anymore. I believe you did it, and I think Epi believes it as well. His accusations of me or Dizzy require assumptions that hes making, that, at least with regard to me, aren't true.

[gfishfunk]

Silver Lantern 3 - Jackofhearts2005 (18), nutella (20), gfishfunk (21) 14%

Oooooph. Its that moment when you get on a train and see who you are are sharing seats with.

[Long Con]

Silver Lantern 3 - Jackofhearts2005 (18), nutella (20), gfishfunk (21) 14%

Oooooph. Its that moment when you get on a train and see who you are are sharing seats with.

Mafia makes for strange bedfellows.

[CaptainNifty]

I haven't paid enough attention to the roles, so I went back and re-read them. Here are a couple of things I noticed.

1) Only Alliance has access to roleblocks as far as a i can tell.
2) Both Cerberus and Reapers seem to have access to as much investigative powers as the town.
3) Cerberus can poison through Kai Leng which would also explain one kill last night because we have one more kill coming.

I realize this isn't scum hunting so I apologize, but if I missed these things other townies might have as well.

[Immortal_Raven]

Slightly annoyed that just about nobody is town reading Silver but nobody but me will vote for him.

Does anyone have any reason to think Silver is town? Any reason at all?

I'm having a hard time deciding between you, Silver, and Wilgy. I wouldn't put it past you and Silver in particular to be on opposing scum teams. Hence why I haven't voted for anyone of you yet. gfish just raised a good point about Silver and I'm wanting to see the response.

As for Wilgy, I answered gfish's questions. Just because you didn't like the answers doesn't mean I didn't answer the questions.

The only thing going for Wilgy right now in my book is he seems to be in attack mode as far as I'm concerned. It's very narrow but if he's got a suspicion, he's sticking to it and really bearing down. It's misguided and simply because I took exception to what he said early in the phase about gfish's play. I have two big hang-ups with him. First, saying that I'm not playing to win. A simple twist of my words to create suspicion. If he's doing all these calculated posts and buying town cred, his misinterpretation of what I said when I never expect to win was intentional, not incidental. Second, he claims I did not at all answer gfish's questions. Again, just because he didn't like what I gave, he feels that it's suspicious when I did actually answer the questions. He's twisting my words far too much and far too aggressively for my tastes.

[Long Con]

I haven't paid enough attention to the roles, so I went back and re-read them. Here are a couple of things I noticed.

1) Only Alliance has access to roleblocks as far as a i can tell.
2) Both Cerberus and Reapers seem to have access to as much investigative powers as the town.
3) Cerberus can poison through Kai Leng which would also explain one kill last night because we have one more kill coming.

I realize this isn't scum hunting so I apologize, but if I missed these things other townies might have as well.

1) There is a Cerberus role:

Oleg Petrovsky
You are an experienced and formidable military strategist focused on the preservation of humanity. Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player’s role will not function.

That sounds like a roleblock to me.

2) What does this mean to you - why is it notable, from your perspective?

3) Good point that I hadn't factored in. Guess we'll know soon enough! I don't know if it's the type of one-shot that needs to get used early though.

[DrWilgy]

Good morning fam.

I'm going to catch up, but work is actually busy today, so I'm not sure if I can be as active today.

[gfishfunk]

2. Your vote is on Epi now, do you think Epi is a good lynch for the day?

Absolutely. I would vote for The Geth if 'The Geth' were literally on the poll. If Epi is The Geth, then he's going to side with the Reapers. I have no doubt about that, because I believe that's the smartest move. That's what I would do.

I'm not adverse to lynching Epi at this point. I think it obvious that Epi could be mafia claiming a neutral role (and the real Geth would not care so much because the real Geth - if in the game - probably does not want to be outed). I tend to believe his claim, though. However, on the little that I know about Epi, my hunch is that choosing to side with the Reapers is far, far too enticing to ignore, mostly for the challenge.

I'm very curious if s/he is right about you, however. The two are not mutually exclusive. You could be a rival mafia and Epi a mafia don, and town struck scum gold. Or Epi could be a townie (lying about being Geth in a huuuuuge play that doesn't help one bit) and you be a townie too.

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

No, I think that a mosaic of information that consists of all those things is what's best. No single type of info is better than several types.[/quote]

I think that is a great answer but skips the question: which is better? I guess that falls under otherwise. I'm not even going for a read on you from this, just asking to get how the syndicate operates.

[CaptainNifty]

I haven't paid enough attention to the roles, so I went back and re-read them. Here are a couple of things I noticed.

1) Only Alliance has access to roleblocks as far as a i can tell.
2) Both Cerberus and Reapers seem to have access to as much investigative powers as the town.
3) Cerberus can poison through Kai Leng which would also explain one kill last night because we have one more kill coming.

I realize this isn't scum hunting so I apologize, but if I missed these things other townies might have as well.

1) There is a Cerberus role:

Oleg Petrovsky
You are an experienced and formidable military strategist focused on the preservation of humanity. Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player’s role will not function.

That sounds like a roleblock to me.

2) What does this mean to you - why is it notable, from your perspective?

3) Good point that I hadn't factored in. Guess we'll know soon enough! I don't know if it's the type of one-shot that needs to get used early though.

1) I just crl+F "roleblock". I'll have to revise my search.
2) I think this is notable because it gives scum cover. Scum is empowered to scum hunt. This needs to be noted that just because a cop catches someone doesn't mean that cop is civ.

[Fredwood]

So in the interest of streamlining this, we have 9 hours left.

Right now as I see it, barring any last minute shenanigans but keeping in mind vote manipulating shenanigans.

There's currently 5 options that seem to be the directions we're going, listed in order of probability at this moment.

1. Lynch Jack
2. Lynch Silver
3. Lynch Epi
4. Lynch TSP
5. Lynch LC

1. Dom, Spirit, and SVS. What specifically do you need to be happy with Jack...at this point is there anything that he can say that won't make you want to lynch him today or any other day? I doubt, even if you caught him, he's likely to admit to being Scum. I'm not sold on Jack's civness either, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt for his busy at work explanation, but if he's going to be a continuing distraction for a large portion of the players...

2. I really don't want to lynch Silver for a trapping argument. If we lynch Silver I would at least like him to be able to defend himself. I've said it a number of times that I feel he's off, but we're now at the point that even if he comes on and is genuinely aggressive then we can wifom as him trying to compensate. I just think it would be fair if we gave him something to try and actually defend himself.

3. Epi - he's the safest lynch. At worst we get a neutral that has expressed willingness to side with scum, on the slight slight slight chance that he's scum, then yay, we eliminated mafia. I personally don't think he matters that much in the long scheme of things, so would rather not waste a lynch on him

4. TSP - he's fooled me before when I was sure he was scum and he turned out to be town. I don't love his responses, but he is responding to questions and not being overtly defensive and addressing specific lines of questions so he has that in his favor. He still has a couple of votes on him.

5. LC - follow epi's lead and just see what happens. Someone want to explain a scenario where scum LC provides a fake claim for someone he think might be opposing scum, then push on the fake claim after the heat is lifted from the fake claim is accepted? Anything is possible, I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and enkendlers know I've bashed my head on my keyboard for some of LC's scum plays, I still can't see it. I think if LC is scum, the more likely scenario is that Epi was not involved in his night targeting, or he was on the team that killed Bob, I seriously doubt Epi's chain of events as presented. Indpendent of LC's interaction with Epi, LC is still in a tenuous position on my suspect list.


Alternatively we could just go with WIlgy's gut on fish, his last response to Silver really bothered me. Accused him of deflecting, when he didn't provide him with anything to deflect.

Being that I'm vanilla, I'm willing to vote for any of the options. My careful voting policy works well at the Realms because of the meta, but from my experience here and the inherent pointlessness of my role atm, I'll vote for someone tonight. I just want a narrower band of options.

[Fredwood]

Saren also has access to a perma block in a sense

[Long Con]

I'm very curious if s/he is right about you, however. The two are not mutually exclusive. You could be a rival mafia and Epi a mafia don, and town struck scum gold.

Epi is a dude. And I could be any alignment, it's true. I wouldn't attempt to kill Epi on Night 1 at this point, not even to be able to make the claim: "I wouldn't kill Epi night 1". If you want to suspect me for anything, don't let it be for Epignosis' Theory of Assumptions.

My suspicion of Epi has been genuine, and the reasons are those I have clearly stated in the thread. Straight up, that's it. Good, bad, or Indy, the lack of a night kill has not factored into my suspicion of Epi at all, that's all in his head.

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

No, I think that a mosaic of information that consists of all those things is what's best. No single type of info is better than several types.

I think that is a great answer but skips the question: which is better? I guess that falls under otherwise. I'm not even going for a read on you from this, just asking to get how the syndicate operates.[/quote]
By "this information", I think you are referring to Epi outing himself? It's hard to quantify "better". Whatever leads to the lynch of a baddie is better. I think roleclaiming is pretty good, and gut reads are extremely hit-and-miss. Alignment lists can be candy-frosted window dressing a lot of the time. They are less "information" and more of a snapshot of an opinion that was formed from other types of information.

[Long Con]

Right now as I see it, barring any last minute shenanigans but keeping in mind vote manipulating shenanigans.

Pure laziness (and I haven't even read your whole post) - what vote-manipulations do you expect? (Lazy as in I could slog through all the roles looking for that but I don't wanna).

[gfishfunk]

3. Epi - he's the safest lynch. At worst we get a neutral that has expressed willingness to side with scum, on the slight slight slight chance that he's scum, then yay, we eliminated mafia. I personally don't think he matters that much in the long scheme of things, so would rather not waste a lynch on him

I'm not opposed to doing it now rather than having it be a distraction later. Its not as if we have anything solid.

5. LC - follow epi's lead and just see what happens. Someone want to explain a scenario where scum LC provides a fake claim for someone he think might be opposing scum, then push on the fake claim after the heat is lifted from the fake claim is accepted? Anything is possible, I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and enkendlers know I've bashed my head on my keyboard for some of LC's scum plays, I still can't see it. I think if LC is scum, the more likely scenario is that Epi was not involved in his night targeting, or he was on the team that killed Bob, I seriously doubt Epi's chain of events as presented. Indpendent of LC's interaction with Epi, LC is still in a tenuous position on my suspect list.

At first this appealed to me, but I have trouble taking my leads from admitted neturals (independents?).

Alternatively we could just go with WIlgy's gut on fish, his last response to Silver really bothered me. Accused him of deflecting, when he didn't provide him with anything to deflect.

I didn't accuse him of deflecting. I asked him to say something that has nothing to do with reads about himself, and that IF he just went after me I would GOLFCLAP for deflecting. I want to see how Silver scum hunts in this environment. My vote is incentive - its not a final choice at this moment. Unless something odd happens, I anticipate moving my vote.

[Epignosis]

Part of me wants to follow Epi's request in case LC is in fact bad (and it would be nice if Epi actually does choose to side with town), but I'm too hesitant to rescind my town read of LC based on that. If Epi only thinks LC is bad because he caught the hole in the claim, that's bullshit, anyone as observant as LC could figure it out. Unless I missed something. I can be pretty dense with the complicated stuff. Maybe Epi can point me to why he thinks LC is bad?

What was the hole in the claim?

[Epignosis]

several uncolored rainbows

Never thought I'd see that trio of words.

Album title material right there.

[Fredwood]

I don't know, but there are 4 or 5 roles that manipulate votes. We know Shep and Illusive Man are for sure in the game. Reapers have 3 roles that can manipulate votes, so the odds are good that at least one of them are in the game. Then there's the Thorian, I'm also pretty sure there's another Alliance role or two that deal with voting as well.

I'm not necessarily expecting vote shenanigans Day 2, but we do need to be aware of them because of the sheer amount of manipulation involved. If we go to EoD with a wide range of options all with a similar number of votes, it's much easier for scum to directly influence the lynch outcome.

Is it better for everyone to provide a list of people in order of who they're willing to vote for, and we lynch the person with the highest aggregate total or debate the top two on that list? I've personally never been in a game with this much potential for voter fraud, so if anyone else has a better idea of how to counter it, I'm all ears.

[Fredwood]

That was in response to LC's question about vote manipulation.

[Fredwood]

Maybe I'm chicken littleing, and with the amount of different faction manipulation it balances it out, but in my experience as a Mod, the most deceptively powerful role in the game is a Mafia vote manipulator, and a poorly balanced town manipulator can break the game.

I'm just worried that we have even talked about it to this point and it's been a building paranoia for me, so I think I need some outside perspective as well.

[gfishfunk]

Here is my line of thinking with Epi. Sorry if its a little math-ish.

Our goal is to keep the net value of the town high.
We have 9 alliance members left. Assume each alliance member is worth 10 points.
We have 6 scum left. Assume that each scum member is worth 0 points.
We have 2 independents left. Assume each independent is worth 0 points other than Epi.
Assume Epi is who he claims to be. He is worth 5 points.

The average random lynch decreases the town's net value by an average of 5.625 (this value does not include Epi, as that would not be random).

Epi is (at best) worth 5 points: as he has two options in front of him, turn alliance or turn reaper. The actual value is lower, however, considering that Epi will likely not gain the attention of evil night actions but still might gain the attention of alliance night actions. I would argue the town value at something like 3 or 4 due to that, but I digress. 5 is just fine of a value for now.

You can absolutely disagree with my reasoning its very simplified. Absent other information or strong feelings about a specific person, I would prefer to lynch Epi.

[Fredwood]

Why would a townie target Epi? If he's Geth he has a self targeting ability, maybe he gets lucky and lands on Sovereign during N3...so he knows who not to vote for at that point. Not discounting the inherent probability of him being able to determine, A: Who reaper mafia is, and B: Who Sovereign is. Why would the town care if he gets lucky, he's not voting with us anyway.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Silver Lantern 3 - Jackofhearts2005 (18), nutella (20), gfishfunk (21) 14%

Oooooph. Its that moment when you get on a train and see who you are are sharing seats with.

Right?

Like now I just need SVS and Silver Lantern to vote for Silver.

[gfishfunk]

Why would a townie target Epi? If he's Geth he has a self targeting ability, maybe he gets lucky and lands on Sovereign during N3...so he knows who not to vote for at that point. Not discounting the inherent probability of him being able to determine, A: Who reaper mafia is, and B: Who Sovereign is. Why would the town care if he gets lucky, he's not voting with us anyway.

The town might target Epi out of disbelief. Or scum might as well. Its one of the reasons I kept the value at 5 rather than at a lower number.

Also keep in mind that the value does not include personal ability, power sets, or anything else and assumes that we have no idea what we are doing when we lynch someone (hence random).

My thinking is that Epi is the safest lynch, possibly also making him the best lynch for that reason. I for one think Epi is being honest.

[CaptainNifty]

Here is my line of thinking with Epi. Sorry if its a little math-ish.

Our goal is to keep the net value of the town high.
We have 9 alliance members left. Assume each alliance member is worth 10 points.
We have 6 scum left. Assume that each scum member is worth 0 points.
We have 2 independents left. Assume each independent is worth 0 points other than Epi.
Assume Epi is who he claims to be. He is worth 5 points.

The average random lynch decreases the town's net value by an average of 5.625 (this value does not include Epi, as that would not be random).

Epi is (at best) worth 5 points: as he has two options in front of him, turn alliance or turn reaper. The actual value is lower, however, considering that Epi will likely not gain the attention of evil night actions but still might gain the attention of alliance night actions. I would argue the town value at something like 3 or 4 due to that, but I digress. 5 is just fine of a value for now.

You can absolutely disagree with my reasoning its very simplified. Absent other information or strong feelings about a specific person, I would prefer to lynch Epi.

While I get your point about town value the fact that you think neutrals and scum hold the same value for the town is crazy. Scum should be worth negative as they actively lower the net value of the town.

And while I think your argument is good that a scum-friendly neutral is a better lynch than a civilian, I'm not that the "sure thing" of a neutral is better than getting scum.

I think I'd like to hear from those voting for Jack if they would accept any response from him to clear him. I would also like the silver detractors to provide something more concrete.

@Fred you aren't being paranoid. This is a real concern.

[gfishfunk]

While I get your point about town value the fact that you think neutrals and scum hold the same value for the town is crazy. Scum should be worth negative as they actively lower the net value of the town.

And while I think your argument is good that a scum-friendly neutral is a better lynch than a civilian, I'm not that the "sure thing" of a neutral is better than getting scum.

By my earlier reasoning, lynching scum is better than lynching Epi. Epi has value to the town as a neutral that can win with the town (depending on a later choice). Scum has z value of 0. Lynching scum is preferable.

That was not what I was discussing, though. A random lynch is worse than Epi at this point.

I think I'd like to hear from those voting for Jack if they would accept any response from him to clear him. I would also like the silver detractors to provide something more concrete.

As a Silver voter, I'm mostly wanting to see him comment on someone other than himself to get how he is reading folks.

[gfishfunk]

I'll ask this one last thing, and then let other people post (I guess).

IF Epi is a safe lynch, who is a better lynch and why?

1. Who do you think is the best lynch this phase?

2. Why is this person better than lynching Epi specifically?

3. Based on what you know or think you know, would Epi side with Alliance or Reapers? For this question, I don't care if you think Epi is lying. You can add that or whatever. I just want to know what you think Epi would do when/if he has to make a choice.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@Nifty

I have nothing more concrete on Silver. My read of him is purely based on him not trying to scumhunt (see Phenom and Superior Foes for contrast and Hybridity for comparison) and him going through the motions, attacking people for deflection rather than actually being mad or annoyed.

If you feel like he doesn't have anything he can really say to this, consider he has had several hours to put forth reads. Instead, he hops on the easiest train, mine. This is not town Silver behavior.

What would it take to get you to vote for Silver?

If it comes down to me and Epi or me and GFish, where are you voting?

[Dom]

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 36#p356836

posting htis so i can find my place in catching up l8r

[Jackofhearts2005]

@Dom

If you magically knew I was town, who would you vote for today and why?

I know you don't know this. Humor me.

[Long Con]

@Nifty

I have nothing more concrete on Silver. My read of him is purely based on him not trying to scumhunt (see Phenom and Superior Foes for contrast and Hybridity for comparison) and him going through the motions, attacking people for deflection rather than actually being mad or annoyed.

If you feel like he doesn't have anything he can really say to this, consider he has had several hours to put forth reads. Instead, he hops on the easiest train, mine. This is not town Silver behavior.

What would it take to get you to vote for Silver?

If it comes down to me and Epi or me and GFish, where are you voting?

I would vote Epi and I would vote GFish... and that's not because I particularly think you're Civ, so we're clear.

This read of Silver is meta-heavy, and my knowledge of Silver is meta-light. I played with him in Phenon, and while I do remember now about him usually being "defensive" (civ Silver in Phenon), I don't have first-hand experience with much else about him (dead early in Phenon, I believe).

So I guess what it would take to get me to vote Silver right now would be me researching some HCR Silver games, and finding that I agree with your assessments of "town Silver behaviour". That, or just trusting you and voting along with my trust. Or something being said or coming to light in this game that incriminates him.

I'm not researching HCR games. And while I could trust you if it came down to it, I'm an Epi man, and I don't see my vote changing at this point.

[Dyslexicon]

@Fred, Who should I vote?

Also, Epi is claiming 3p that later can side with scum. Is there any good reason not to lynch him? o.o

@Epi, How will we know you have sided with town, is there any way of knowing? And how can we be sure you are who you say you are?

[Fredwood]

The random lynch only works if our lynch is town.

The "math" as you put it doesn't take into effect the net benefit and the probability of lynching scum at this point, and the benefit overall we get for lynching scum.

With 17 players left, we know that 8 are non-town. That's what 45 percent or something? With 6 scum they're about 33 percent of the remaining player base. Let's just take the 4 players on my list, what's the probability that one of them are scum, then what's the probability of 2 of them being scum etc

Right now, not including epi,,, there's a 37.5 percent that anyone we choose at random is a mafia member, and about a 44 percent chance that one of them is a mafia member or a non-town neutral.

Further increasing the paramaters, what is the likely hood and probability that of the 4 people, other than Epi, that one of them is mafia, or that one of them is mafia or non-town? Then what is the probability of then what are the odds that we successfully lynch the correct person.

See where introducing Math gets cloudy. My guess, It's been too long since I calculated probabilities so I can't give specific numbers, is that there is a significant chance that one of the four people are scum, thus increasing our chances from the small sample size that we do end up with scum, since we have a 1 in 3 chance of randomly rolling scum with all players.

My point being, introducing math and discounting the risk/reward of lynching from a pool of suspicious targets to go for the "safe" target seems the wrong way to be going about it.

[Dyslexicon]

Also, want to point out that reading the roles, there's a very good chance of there being some vote shenanigans ongoing. So having the votes extremely spread out by EoD may have variable results, which may be fun, but not the best if control is something we want. Not sure if this has been pointed out before.

[Fredwood]

@Fred, Who should I vote?

Also, Epi is claiming 3p that later can side with scum. Is there any good reason not to lynch him? o.o

@Epi, How will we know you have sided with town, is there any way of knowing? And how can we be sure you are who you say you are?

No, there is no reason other then it's too safe and it's kind of a wasted lynch, especially since he cannot do anything for another few days. Right now, since it's difficult for you to follow along your best bet is to vote for Epi, I'm not pushing for an Epi lynch just that the other options are meta and read dependent.

Your other option is Jack, Dom and SVS pretty much seem determined to get a Jack lynch at this point. I think the likelyhood of SVS and Dom being on the same team are slim, they're buddying and mirroring too much. My feeling, just by how the day is going that a non Epi lynch means a Jack lynch.

[gfishfunk]

Fred, care to answer these questions:

I'll ask this one last thing, and then let other people post (I guess).

IF Epi is a safe lynch, who is a better lynch and why?

1. Who do you think is the best lynch this phase?

2. Why is this person better than lynching Epi specifically?

3. Based on what you know or think you know, would Epi side with Alliance or Reapers? For this question, I don't care if you think Epi is lying. You can add that or whatever. I just want to know what you think Epi would do when/if he has to make a choice.

[CaptainNifty]

@Nifty

I have nothing more concrete on Silver. My read of him is purely based on him not trying to scumhunt (see Phenom and Superior Foes for contrast and Hybridity for comparison) and him going through the motions, attacking people for deflection rather than actually being mad or annoyed.

If you feel like he doesn't have anything he can really say to this, consider he has had several hours to put forth reads. Instead, he hops on the easiest train, mine. This is not town Silver behavior.

What would it take to get you to vote for Silver?

If it comes down to me and Epi or me and GFish, where are you voting?

I want to hear from Silver. His next post will determine if I vote for him or not.

I probably won't vote for you today at all. If your town your too valuable, and you've pinged enough people scum that if you are we can survive you another night. Out of the three of you I think Epi is the best lynch because he's safe, but right now I'm leaning silver.

I'm leaving my vote on TSP, because while I like that he's engaging, his reads are all bad.

[Fredwood]

Also, want to point out that reading the roles, there's a very good chance of there being some vote shenanigans ongoing. So having the votes extremely spread out by EoD may have variable results, which may be fun, but not the best if control is something we want. Not sure if this has been pointed out before.

lol yeah, I've been trying to streamline it, and have mentioned it, but there hasn't been a ton of discussion on the point.

[gfishfunk]

Also, want to point out that reading the roles, there's a very good chance of there being some vote shenanigans ongoing. So having the votes extremely spread out by EoD may have variable results, which may be fun, but not the best if control is something we want. Not sure if this has been pointed out before.

lol yeah, I've been trying to streamline it, and have mentioned it, but there hasn't been a ton of discussion on the point.

Early theory: this is why we are seeing a lot of low vote totals, single votes on random people, and non-voting. Folks with weird vote powers are trying to hide their power.

[Long Con]

Here is a SIMPLIFIED ROLE LIST, with the irrelevant "character building" stuff removed. I want something easier to look at. I took out all the "Romance Option" stuff as well.

ALLIANCE (11 roles)
Win the game by eliminating the Reapers, Cerberus, and any hostile independents.

Commander Shepard*
You will play this game with a karmic rating. After a lynch, if your final vote was for a member of the town faction, you will gain one renegade point. If your final vote was for a member of a mafia faction, you will gain one paragon point. If your final vote was for an independent player, you will gain no points. If you reach 4 renegade points, you will earn a one-time kill to be used any night phase thereafter. If you reach 3 paragon points, you will earn a one-time use bulletproof vest to protect you from a night kill.

Twice during the game during any night phases, you may inspire loyalty. Select a player; that player’s vote will be worth double during the following day phase.

During the third night phase, you may select a role to romance. If successful, you will be able to communicate behind the scenes with your romantic partner. If unsuccessful, you may select a different role on the fourth night (and each night thereafter until success).

Garrus Vakarian
You have a one-shot nightkill. This nightkill can’t be misdirected by another player in any way (this includes mind control or busdriving of your target), though it can be blocked or doctored. Additionally, twice during any separate night phases you can target someone at night and determine who they targeted (tracker). You can select either the tracking or the nightkill as your night action.

Tali’Zorah nar Rayya
You have two shots at reverse tracking/watching (name a target, you will find out everyone who targeted them) during any separate night phases. In addition to that, you will misdirect a target twice during any separate night phases. You can select either the reverse tracking or misdirection as your night action.

Mordin Solus
You have a variety of abilities you can use during the game.

Incinerate - One shot roleblock with a chance to kill your target.
Neural Shock - One shot roleblock nexus (anyone targeting you fails in their action)
Salarian Scientist - Two shot alignment cop

Urdnot Wrex
Each night you can interpose yourself between your chosen mark and any kill attempts. You might not survive the hit attempt. However, if you die defending a town member in this way, you will leave the game with an alternate win condition. Your death will also not be janitored, in that case, though keep in mind someone can still nightkill YOU directly!

Miranda Lawson
You have a two shot roleblock. Additionally, you have a one-shot busdrive (so anyone targeting player A, would target player B, and vice versa). However, if you are investigated by an alignment checker, you will appear to be aligned with Cerberus.

Grunt
You have a variety of one-shot abilities that you can use at night (no two may be used simultaneously):

Concussive Shot - You roleblock a target
Incendiary Ammo - You drag a target into the writeup
Fortification - You are immune to nightkills this evening
Berserker - Your vote counts double on the next day phase.

Thane Krios
You have a variety of one-shot abilities that you may or may not use at night:

Biotic Throw: You roleblock a target, and daze them so their vote does not count in the next day phase.
Warp: You target a player for a nightkill.
Stealth: You can select a target (including yourself) to be hidden for the night, where they can’t be targeted by other players.

Ashley Williams
Once per game you can hit a target at night, automatically adding three votes to them for the next day phase. These three votes will not show up until the final count for the day is done.

If Ashley is in the game, Kaiden will not be in the game.

Kaiden Alenko
Once per game, you can busdrive two people (so that everyone that targets player A targets player B, and vice versa). Alternatively, at night you can pass a single note to any player. You can say anything you want in the note, but you can’t pass a note the same night that you busdrive.

If Kaiden is in the game, Ashley will not be in the game.

Liara T’Soni
Once during any night phase you can jailkeep a target, so that they cannot take any actions, nor can they be targeted by anyone else. Additionally, twice per game you can alignment cop a target and determine what faction they are with, if any.

David Anderson
Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. If that player has a limited-shot ability, he or she will gain an extra shot to be used at the time of his or her choosing.

Jeff “Joker” Moreau
Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player A and a Player B. Actions performed by Player A will be targeted to Player B, and actions performed by Player B will be targeted to Player A.

Dr. Karin Chakwas
Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player will be protected from any fatal night actions.

Legion
Twice per game you can provide cover fire to guide your target, so they cannot be misdirected or blocked during the night phase. Additionally, there is a small chance (15%) that a night kill will not affect you.

Jack
Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. That player will be given a one-time bulletproof vest (a strong biotic shielding) which will protect them from the first attempt on their life at any time after that point. The recipient will not be made aware of this.

James Vega
You have access to a number of one-shot abilities which may be used during any separate night phases:

Carnage - Selected player will begin the following day phase with one extra vote
Frag grenade - Selected player and all players targeting or being targeted by that player the same night will each have a 50% chance of being role blocked.
Tuck and roll - You will be immune to all non-lethal night actions this night.

Jacob Taylor
You have a variety of one-shot powers that you can use:
Incendiary Ammo - You drag your target into the writeup
Biotic Pull - You roleblock your target.
Barrier - You can protect either yourself or another player from nightkills that evening.

You will show up as Cerberus on alignment checks.

Steve Cortez
Once during any night phase, you may select a player. That player will be granted a weapons upgrade, allowing them permanent immunity to all disruptive actions such as role blocks and misdirections.

Samara
You have a variety of one-shot powers that you can use:
Biotic Pull - You roleblock your target
Biotic Throw - You roleblock a target, and daze them so their vote does not count in the next day phase.
Reave - You target a player, with two effects. You weaken the target so that any other player that targets them has a chance to nightkill them (the more players targeting, the greater the chances), and you bolster yourself so you resist kill attempts that evening.

EDI
Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player will be protected from non-lethal hostile or disruptive actions, such as but not limited to role blocks and misdirection.

Kelly Chambers
As Shepard’s assistant, each night you may either add or subtract one vote from a player in the game. This vote will not show up in the poll, but will be factored into the final tally to determine ties and lynches. You may not target yourself.

Samantha Traynor
Three times during any separate night phases, you may select a Player A and a Player B. Player A will be given the privilege of sending a single private message to Player B during the following day phase, with hosts copied on the message. No response will be permitted.

REAPERS (3 roles)
They share behind the scenes communication. Win the game by eliminating the Alliance, Cerberus, and any hostile independents.
They kill on Nights 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12 (and so on with even-numbered nights)

Sovereign*
During each night phase, you may select a player to indoctrinate. Indoctrination occurs in three stages, each requiring a deliberate targeting of a player (multiple targets to reach higher stages):

Stage One -- Selected player’s night action is randomized to another target if applicable.

Stage Two -- Selected player’s night action is redirected to the target of your choice.

Stage Three -- Selected player’s non-supportive night actions no longer function against your team. Investigative actions will yield false results and offensive actions will fail. Supportive night actions, such as protections, will still function.

You are immune to the first attempt upon your life during any night phase. You are not immune to lynching.

Harbinger
Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may inhabit the consciousness of another player. That player will be forced to vote as you command during the following day phase.

Saren Arterius
You may not use more than one action during any single night phase.

2-shot -- You may select a player. That player’s role will not function.
2-shot -- You may select a player. That player will be protected from lethal actions.
1-shot -- You may select a player. You will be told who that player targeted if anyone.
1-shot -- You may select a player. You will be told one of that player’s remaining powers

Matriarch Benezia
During each night phase you may select a player. That player will be held in stasis, unable to speak during the following day phase.

The Collectors
During any day phase(s), you may remove two votes from yourself. You may remove one at a time during separate days, or both at the same time.

The Catalyst
Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. A four-sided die will be rolled.

1 - You will be told that player’s role.
2 - That player’s vote will be doubled during the next day phase.
3 - That player will be temporarily insanified.
4 - Nothing will happen.

CERBERUS (3 roles)
They share behind the scenes communication. Win the game by eliminating the Alliance, the Reapers, and any hostile independents.
They kill on Nights 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13 (and so on with odd-numbered nights)

The Illusive Man*
Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. You will forge that player’s role so that whenever he or she dies by whatever means, their role will be revealed to be whichever role you choose instead of their true role. It will be possible for this to result in two different people dying and being revealed as the same role.

During each night phase, you may select a player. You will be told whether that player is a human, a non-human organic species, or a synthetic race. Your vote is worth 1.5 when placed upon non-humans and synthetics you have identified.

You are immune to the first attempt on your life during any night phase. You are not immune to lynching.

Dr. Eva Coré
If you deliver the faction night kill, you are immune to being caught by tracking or watching/reverse-tracking.

Kai Leng
You may not use more than one action during any single night phase.

2-shot -- That player’s vote will be worth zero during the following day phase.
2-shot -- You may select a player. You will be told that player’s alignment.
1-shot -- You may select a player to poison. That player will die at the end of the following night phase. This cannot be prevented by any means. This power replaces the faction night kill that evening.
1-shot -- You may select a player. That player will be immune to all other actions that night.
1-shot -- You may elect to commute for the night phase, rendering yourself immune to all actions that night.

Henry Lawson
If you are still alive after the third night phase, The Illusive Man will gain the same indoctrination capabilities described in the ‘Sovereign’ role.

Twice during the game you during any separate night phases, you may select a player. If that player is Miranda Lawson, her vote will be worth zero during the following day phase. If not, that player will be unable to post during the following day phase.

Donnel Udina
If you are investigated by an alignment checker, you will appear to be aligned with the Alliance. Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player will be able to use their role twice the following night. For those with limited-shot roles, on the appropriate night two usages of their role will count as one. This does not apply to any faction night kill and may not be used for The Illusive Man's forging ability.

Oleg Petrovsky
Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. That player’s role will not function.

INDEPENDENTS (2 roles)

The Thorian
During each night phase, you may select a player. That player will have a 75% chance of being required to vote as you dictate during the following day phase. This does not affect all possible votes placed during the day by that player; it only affects the final vote. The player will not be told who is in control over his/her vote.

You will survive the first attempt on your life during any night phase.

To win the game you must survive as the last player standing. If you are in a situation with just one Alliance member alive alongside you, you will be declared the winner. If you are in a situation with just one mafia member alive alongside you, the winner will depend upon other circumstances.

Aria T’Loak
During each night phase of the game, you may enact one of the following listed below. You may not use any ability twice until all abilities have been used once; you may not use any ability three times until all abilities have been used twice, and so on.

Blue Suns: You may select a player. You will be told who that player targeted if anyone.
Eclipse: You may select a player. That player’s role will not function. This may not prevent a faction night kill.
Blood Pack: You may select a player. That player will be have a 60% chance of being killed.

You will survive the first attempt on your life during any night phase.

To win the game you must survive as the last player standing. If you are in a situation with just one Alliance member alive alongside you, you will be declared the winner. If you are in a situation with just one mafia member alive alongside you, the winner will depend upon other circumstances.

The Geth
Your collective is drawn to the dominion of the synthetic Reapers, though for the first time there is some ideological disagreement in your ranks. You must decide by the end of the third night phase to align with either the Reapers or the Alliance. You will not be counted among their numbers though for the purposes of deciding the game. If you align with the Reapers, you will not join them in BTSC or be made aware of their identities. They will be made aware of yours.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may elect to deflect any actions targeted upon you. There will be a 50% chance of the action dissipating, a 25% chance of it being redirected to a randomly selected player, and a 25% chance of it successfully affecting you.

Three times during the game during any separate night phases following the third, you may select a player. If that player is Legion and you have sided with the Alliance, you will be granted BTSC for the following day phase. If that player is Sovereign and you have sided with the Reapers, you will be granted BTSC for the following day phase.

Leviathan

During each night phase, you may select a player. You will be told that player’s alignment. You will not be permitted to reveal your findings publicly.

To win the game, you must outlive the entire Reaper faction as well as Commander Shepard and The Illusive Man.

[Jackofhearts2005]

change vote to Epi

While I'm ~90% convinced Silver is bad, I'm 100% convinced Epi isn't a civ. I think LC is town and I believe him (and agree in my own less experienced with Epi way) that Epi will likely choose to align with the mafia if he's telling the truth.

Plus, you can probably lynch Epi and vig Silver. Vigging Epi and lynching Silver is more likely to backfire.

I don't think Epi's gambit is town helpful, though I tend to believe he really made it. LC's defense is convincing. Nifty is likely town. Dizzy is null at this point. GFish is likely scum but I do believe he knows Epi was blocked and his block straw clutching gambit is very GFishian, meaning the block, not a kill is his reason for voting Epi. Considering the number of blockers, doctors, vests, etc and that there's only a 50% chance of Epi dissipating the kill if he really is the Geth, I don't think the "one mafia tried to kill Epi" theory is sound. Even if we knew the kill failed while being aimed at Epi, the odds lean on him being scum because there are two 100% bulletproof mafia players and one 50% bulletproof Geth. Additionally, why would the scum shoot Epi then turn around and try to lynch him? If you think you can kill Epi, why shoot him?

Make no mistake, I still think Silver is bad.

[Jackofhearts2005]

EBWOP

If you think you can get Epi lynched, why shoot him?

[Fredwood]

Fred, care to answer these questions:

I'll ask this one last thing, and then let other people post (I guess).

IF Epi is a safe lynch, who is a better lynch and why?

1. Who do you think is the best lynch this phase?

2. Why is this person better than lynching Epi specifically?

3. Based on what you know or think you know, would Epi side with Alliance or Reapers? For this question, I don't care if you think Epi is lying. You can add that or whatever. I just want to know what you think Epi would do when/if he has to make a choice.

If we're going of probability, I feel Silver, Jack, TSP or LC are all better lynches, just based of risk reward.

Specifically, I feel Jack is the best lynch for the town, even if he is town. The heat he is garnering won't dissapate. Silver's and TSP's heat have the chance of dissipating, and LC's is being pushed by epi so really isn't garnering heat atm. Like I said, I'm good with all 5 of these lynches, but if I look at it from a net positive in a worst case scenario situation, sorry Jack.

3. I don't think it matters who Epi sides with. Either we lynch him now or we just ignore him as he's essentially a stump at this point.

To me the only valid reason for an Epi lynch hasn't been brought up yet, if people actually think they'll be influenced by his mind games, then we should lynch him.