Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[sprityo]

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] did you already do that "GMAN vote analysis" thing for Day 1 and Day 4 yet? i wanted to look at that in comparison to the vote alignment chart

[sprityo]

Jay must be rolling in his grave now. Pretty sure he made a big post explaining why lap was not bad and another for Quin.

It's a good thing an all town train lynched him to prevent him driving us off a cliff

[sprityo]

Spoiler: show

I will skip Day 2 and Day 3 because of no votes on confirmed baddies. I may return to those later on. G-Man would have done it anyway, but I'm more lazy.

DAY 4

God bless eggplants.

Spoiler: show

DDL - Wilgy
Bob - Wilgy
Nutella - Wilgy
Sprityo - Quin
lapluie - Epi
Sig - Wilgy
ID - Nutella
Speed - Quin
lapluie - Quin
Speed - Wilgy
Epi - DDL
Kites - Wilgy
Sprityo - Quin
Sig - Wilgy
ID - Wilgy
Marmot - Wilgy
RDW - Quin
Nutella - Quin
RDW - Wilgy
Epi - ID
Gwilkers - Wilgy
Kylemii - Quin
DDL - Quin
Bob - Quin
Quin - Nutella
DDL - Wilgy
Quin - Wilgy
RDW - Quin
Speed - Quin
Epi - Quin
DDL - Quin
RDW - Wilgy
Speed - Wilgy
DDl - Wilgy

DDL
Bob
Nutella
Sprityo
lapluie
Sig
ID
Speed
lapluie
Speed
Epi
Kites
Sprityo
Sig
ID
Marmot
RDW
Nutella
RDW
Epi
Gwilkers
Kylemii
DDL
Bob
Quin
DDL
Quin
RDW
Speed
Epi
DDL
RDW
Speed
DDL

Key:

Quin - Red
Dr. Wilgy - Light Blue
Nutela - Green
Others - White

Different type of day phase here. Less options, but more flip-flopping.

The name of the game, for most of Day 4, was Dr. Wilgy. It was almost a consensus. Town collectively decided that enough was enough and that, if the first doctor was good, then second time was the charm, in part supported by Yours Truly. I pushed for Wilgy hard, and people followed me. Obviously, some of the ones who did were bad (good luck finding who though).

There was a shy attempt of lynching Quin for a while, mostly represented by Sprityo going hard on him for game mechanical reasons (I'm sorry for doubting you, man). Some help from lapluie.

The majot change comes when RDW shows up out of nowhere and votes for Quin. Nutella votes for Quin too. RDW immediately backs down and votes for Wilgy. He would back and forth between Wilgy and Quin for the rest of the day, ultimately landing on Wilgy.

Kylemii and me help push it, and then Bob. This is the second time I see Bob land the middle vote on the Quin wagon. Is this calculated? Then the Great Flip-Flopping of Day 4 happens and I start changing like crazy, along with Speed, Epi and RDW.

Again, RDW and Epi look like ass here, specially the former. Sprityo looks amazing. Nutella looks good, maybe Kyle too. It should be noted that at this point, bussing should be expected. So take any civ read produced from this analysis with multiple grains of salt. lapluie would be an easy busser, for example.

Some people voted early for Wilgy and did not come back to vote. Specifically: Sig, ID, Marmot, Gwilker and Kites. None of the five were posting around the EoD either. I'd like to believe some mafia voted for Wilgy and went AWOL, but it's hard to figure out who.

DDL presents

G-Man's Technicolor Vote Analysis

DAY 1

First, let's list all the votes that were cast in Day 1. Credits to my Enter key for enduring the abuse that was necessary to search for the word "vote" hundreds of times, since aubergines didn't exist yet.

Spoiler: show

DDL - Kylemii
Jay - Mac
Marmot - Epignosis
Marmot - Wilgy
Nutella - Mac
Mac - Bob
Jay - Sprityo
Mac - Bob
DDL - Mac
Jay - lapluie
Dunya - Epi
LC - TSP
Bob - rabbit8
Nutella - TSP
DDL - Sprityo
Dunya - Quin
TSP - Kylemii
Kites - Epi
LC - Marmot
Marmot - Epi
RDW - Marmot
Jay - Dr. White
Marmot - Epi
Epi - Colin
mac - Quin
RDW - Nutella
Gwilkers - Nutella
Bob - Colin
mac - Nutella
ID - DDL
Sig - Rabbit8
Dunya - Nutella
Bob - Rabbit8
Colin - Nutella
Kenway - TSP
ID - Epi
Bob - lapluie
DDL - Kenway
Bob - Rabbit8
RDW - Epi
DDL - Rabbit8
DDL - Kenway
Wilgy - Dunya
Nutella - Quin
DDL - Quin
Jay - Quin
Bob - Quin
RDW - Nutella
Marmot - Quin
Kylemii - Quin
LC - Quin
Jay - Nutella

Now let's give a treatment to this data. I will list every single one of those votes in order, but instead of naming vote the voter and the votee, I will just name the former, and use a color to represent the later.

DDL
Jay
Marmot
Marmot
Nutella
Mac
Jay
Mac
DDL
Jay
Dunya
LC
Bob
Nutella
DDL
Dunya
TSP
Kites
LC
Marmot
RDW
Jay
Marmot
Epi
mac
RDW
Gwilkers
Bob
mac
ID
Sig
Dunya
Bob
Colin
Kenway
ID
Bob
DDL
Bob
RDW
DDL
DDL
Wilgy
Nutella
DDL
Jay
Bob
RDW
Marmot
Kylemii
LC
Jay

Key:

Quin - Red
Nutella - Green
Epignosis - Purple
Rabbit8 - Orange
TSP - Dark Blue
MacDougall - Light Blue
Others - White

Now, the point here is to see the bandwagons forming and growing. From this list, we see that for most of Day 1, the thread did not know what to do. We can see there was an initial attempt to bandwagon Mac, which people eventually gave up on. There were some tentative votes on Quin that got abandoned. Then we have the slow growth of the Epi vote, as people got annoyed by the "Exercise". That wagon was accompained, but never surpassed, by the Rabbit8 one.

Later on, the Nutella wagon begins, and it grows fast. Suddenly it beats every wagon and it's leading with 5 votes, from RDW, Gwilkers, Mac, dunya and Colin, 2 of which we know were civs.

The day seems like it will be a battle between Nutella and Epi, with rabbit8 running behind.

Suddenly, something happens. Nutella decides to act on her previously stated suspicions about Quin.

The bandwagon is formed, and it grows with a storm. I jump, then Jay, then Bob. Then Marmot, then Kyle and then LC. This was a legit CFD (damn you Jay), and it only didn't suceed because Epi stopped the lynch.

There are two points of interest that call most of my attention, though you people are free to dissect other things:

First, Nutella looks great. Granted, she was saving herself, but a CFD on a teammate that had no votes atm (previous votes on Quin were changed) doesn't strike me as a good plan.

Second, RDW is sticking out like a sore thumb. No, look at that. He votes for Nutella. Heck, he starts the Nutella wagon. Then after the wagon has grown, he abandons it and votes for Epi. He seems fine with lynching Epi until the Quin wagons grows. Then in the last minute, he changes his vote to Nutella again, and almost gets her lynched in place of Quin.

My understanding? RDW is bad, Nutella is a civ. The baddies were going with a Nutella lynch on day 1. When their teammate was threatened, RDW went with the save.

Epi doesn't look great here either. Not only he was the hand that ultimately saved Quin, but a seriously case for RDW bussing Epi can be made here. RDW, after creating the weapon that would destroy Nutella, washes his hands and votes for a teammate. Perfect day.

I urge all of you to look at RDW's posts. He looks the worst from Day 1 interactions with Quin. Also see if you can find any other things to conclude from this exercise other than this.

actually you only did the days i was asking for already i really need to stop being so lazy

[sprityo]

Day 1

[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy

No vote: Dr. White, lapluie, Quin, rabbit8, sprityo

-------------------------------------------
Day 2

CBob - Kites, Tony, Marmot, Iron, Mac
Lap - Quin, Nutella, LC, Jimmy, CBob
Dr White - Colin, Speed, RDW
LC - DDL, Kyle
Marmot - Sig
Speed - Wilgy
Iron - GWilly
Sig - Sprityo
Nutella - Dr White
Jimmy - Epi
--------------------------------------

Day 3

[6] JaggedJimmyJay - Dragon D. Luffy, McDougall, Epignosis, sprityo, Marmot, DrWilgy
[6] Iron_Dwarf - colonialbob, speedchuck, nutella, gwilikers6, JaggedJimmyJay, Kylemii
[1] sig - Kenway
[1] DrWilgy - Long Con
[3] nutella - Iron_Dwarf, Quin, lapluie
[1] rundontwalk - Kites
[1] gwilikers6 - rundontwalk

No vote: sig (but a good effort)

------------------------

Day 4

[9] DrWilgy - sig, Kites, Iron_Dwarf, Marmot, gwilikers6, Dragon D. Luffy, Quin, rundontwalk, Speedchuck
[6] Quin - lapluie, sprityo, nutella, Kylemii, colonialbob, Epignosis

--------------------------------------

[8] Quin - Marmot, Nutella, Dragon D. Luffy, Sig, speedchuck, gwilikers6, Kylemii, Kites
[4] Iron_Dwarf - rundontwalk, sprityo, quin, Epignosis
[1] Nutella - lapluie
[1] Marmot - Iron_Dwarf
[1] Kenway - colonialbob

No vote: Kenway


---------------------------

[6] lapluie - sprityo, nutella, rundontwalk, gwilkkers6, Epignosis, Kylemii
[4] rundontwalk - colonialbob, Kites, sig, Dragon D. Luffy
[2] nutella - Iron_Dwarf, Speedchuck

Not voting: Kenway, lapluie

---------------------------

We need sloon to replace kenway btw. or someone to repace him


blue is dead
red is mafia
green is people i feel fairly confident are town

i wanna see what happens when i knock RDW, Cbob, Kyle, and nutella off the lists of possibilities, represented in yellow are 'not likely mafia'

[sprityo]

in theory this could totally make sense, the mafia is keeping off the large wagons unless they need to

the only odd days being Day 2 and Day 5

[sprityo]

I could also take RDW off of the yellow and it still looks plausible

[lapluie]

[Kenway]

Oh wow. She was scum all along.

[Kylemii]

I wanna see what happens when i knock RDW, Cbob, Kyle, and nutella off the lists of possibilities, represented in yellow are 'not likely mafia'

what are the reasons behind the yellow names on this list? most specifically cobbo

[Kylemii]

cbo

[Kylemii]

b.

[gwilikers6]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

I’d rather not answer, tbh. It has its pros and cons. I wish I stayed as monk, but it may be worth you doing if your starting role is weaker than monk.

[gwilikers6]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

[colonialbob]

Expecting all the folks dropping in and voting lapluie last minute to explain why at some point (no matter what the flip)

Colonialbob, did you know how lap was going to flip?

No, because I'm town. But if she flipped mafia some of those late votes could easily be bussing once it was clear she was in the lead. And obviously if she flipped town I'd want explanations too.

People in the thread had made cases, switched back and forth, etc. Then in the last couple minutes votes get dropped on her by people that haven't mentioned her all phase. I wanted the thought process behind those votes.

[colonialbob]

The above leads to a couple possible w/w scenarios:

lapluie/Kylemii
RDW/lapluie/Kylemii
RDW/lapluie/gwil

The first one is the one I'd like to investigate right now, since a) given that it involves 2 players instead of three it's more likely and b) Kylemii had claimed a lot of failures, meaning a lot of 'missing' night actions, as did Quin and lapluie. Seems that there's nobody good at making fake actions in mafia chat. In this scenario, Kyle was waiting to see if he was needed to vote RDW, but when gwil swapped to lapluie he needed her to come vote RDW before the deadline. She didn't, so he jumped on the train to distance.

This case is only moderately convincing to me. I want to ISO Kyle and see if anything pops.

(By the way, the night action thing would give me a strong civ read towards all the HCRealms players as we all are used to making up fake night actions as mafia, but TSP is a long gone townie and Jack is hosting. Which also means there's nobody to confirm my meta of same. Ah well.)

[sprityo]

I wanna see what happens when i knock RDW, Cbob, Kyle, and nutella off the lists of possibilities, represented in yellow are 'not likely mafia'

what are the reasons behind the yellow names on this list? most specifically cobbo

An exercise to see what it would look like if everyone voting on big wagons day 1, 3, and 6 are town

[Dragon D. Luffy]

There goes my night action plan.

So who do we think is the remaining mafia members?

Remaining technicollor lists incoming.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

lapluie refusing to share her things likely means the mafia are not organizing well.

Yeah I agree here. Fake claiming is really basic. I bet their BTSC chat is dead.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Kites, in this post were you referring to your long lost brother thing?

yeah. I wanted to know if the gender in role descriptions and backgrounds are connected so I could rule out everyone who’s female

btw guys for the first time in this game Im having this thought that maybe epi isn’t scum. I mean he wouldn’t have brought up lap like that if he was bad, well he abandoned te case for a while and was jumping all over the place but i think he was just really tryna find a baddie. doing it for civ cred? i belive.. not

The idea that mafia is disorganized does make me feel good about Epi. I've been bad with him and I know he strategizes the fuck out of a game. He wouldn't let lapluie go around without fake results no sir.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Everyone I want to target tonight has a horse or wings or a lance. What do I do?

[Epignosis]

myrmeridon crime boy quin was dead at the time of speed targeting lapluie, of the things we know about myrmrmodon ddl or mercenary cbob could be responsible for a wrong result, though it seems like if speed had his target changed then he'd still know who his end target result was from, based on what he's said about his result PMs.

the other possibilities are that the mafia has some sort of info-fuck ability like a seemer or w/e. Maybe rising star pointer looks like a civ when checked or something? Or maybe a different one of their background roles can fuck with info-gets.

Or maybe...I don't know...speedchuck lied?

[DrWilgy]

The sad day when Wilgy isn't a ship option.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Day 2

Spoiler: show

dunya - Quin
Marmot - Bob
Mac - Quin
Jay - ID
Nutella - Quin
RDW - Jay
Bob - ID
Quin - Nutella
Sig - Kenway
Sig - Marmot
Mac - Sig
Mac - Epi
Bob - Kenway
ID - RDW
Kites - Bob
DDL - ID
Colin - ID
TSP - Bob
Bob - TSP
RDW - ID
RDW - DDL
Mac - DDL
Speed - ID
DDL - LC
Jay - Dr. White
mac - Dr. White
Colin - Dr. White
Nutella - Dr. White
Gwilkers6 - ID
Sprityo - Sig
Epi - RDW
Quin - Lapluie
ID - Bob
Speed - Dr. White
Jay - RDW
Epi - Jay
RDW - Epi
Epi - RDW
Nutella - RDW
Dr. White - Nutella
Bob - White
Jay - Lapluie
Epi - Jay
Nutella - Lapluie
RDW - Dr. White
LC - Lapluie
Kylemii - LC
Mac - Bob
Jay - LC
Jay - Lapluie
Bob - Lapluie

Key:

dunya
Marmot
Mac
Jay
Nutella
RDW
Bob
Quin
Sig
Sig
Mac
Mac
Bob
ID
Kites
DDL
Colin
TSP
Bob
RDW
RDW
Mac
Speed
DDL
Jay
mac
Colin
Nutella
Gwilkers6
Sprityo
Epi
Quin
ID
Speed
Jay
Epi
RDW
Epi
Nutella
Dr. White
Bob
Jay
Epi
Nutella
RDW
LC
Kylemii
Mac
Jay
Jay
Bob

Purple - lapluie
Bob - Light Blue
Red - Quin
Dr. White - Orange
Green - Iron_Dwarf
Yellow - RDW
Others - White

Oh my, an early Quin wagon! Should have looked at that sooner. It fizzles out quite fast, but it does make Nutella and Speed look a little better.

ID's green can be seen everywhere in this list, yet somehow ID ends the day with only 1 vote. I don't see anything that can be concluded from this, but it's worth pointing it out.

Around the end of Day 2, the thread collective gets bored of ID and Quin and whatever other attempts they were pursuing and decide to get rid of our short-tempered doctor friend. The Dr. White wagon grows fast. Started by 3 civs and a hazelnut, and later Speed and Bob. Then we get a lot of what looks like Jay angrily arguing with White and more tentative votes.

The Bob wagon is unique in the sense that it's really spread out, it's done by players who were not town leaders (except for Mac near the end), and it's not very susceptible to waffling. The people who voted for Bob sticked to it. Voters #1 and #3 and #5 are civ. If Kites is a civ too, this is a dangerous wagon for scum to be bussing on if Bob is bad, but also easy to blend in. If Bob is a civ then it is just easy. Hard to speculate here.

lapluie's wagon is, of course, the main attraction. It's started fairly early by Quin, when the world was divided between Bob and Dr. white and ID, as an evident distancing move. It stays low key for a while. Then a legit CFD by our friend the teddy bear happens. Then Nutella follows.

Just as it seems lapluie is about to become a serious wagon, this happens:

Sorry lads a lurker is not going to die today, I want an active player to die so we get more info

Leaning towards Dr white

[VOTE: DrWhite] aubergine

"My hero!" - cries lapluie the Thief, as her gallant Cavalier shows up and rescues her from the wrath of the civilians. Prior Dr. White case be danmed, of course. He was around and not paying attention to the Dr. White case before, but a wagon on a baddie is all it needs for RDW to step in.

"But DDL!" - someone would say - "A lot of people voted for wagons that didn't help the lapluie one!"

Sure, but there is another problem. lapluie had 5 votes at the end of Day 2. Dr. White, the victim of misguided civ fury, had 3. Dr. White was lynched in a way that is still unknown by us all. And his three votes were from: two confirmed civs, and RDW. One possible explanation for the White lynch right in front of you.

Look guys, I'm really trying to avoid tunneling on RDW, but his vote tracking is so bad it's a statistical anomaly. I think it's more likely at this point the man doesn't simply care about bussing than that he was at the wrong place at the wrong time every single day phase. And I haven't even done Day 3 and 6 yet.

On another news, that late vote by Bob looks good, assuming the mechanics that saved lapluie were a vote power boost/steal. if it was a straight up lynch redirect, not so much.

[sprityo]

myrmeridon crime boy quin was dead at the time of speed targeting lapluie, of the things we know about myrmrmodon ddl or mercenary cbob could be responsible for a wrong result, though it seems like if speed had his target changed then he'd still know who his end target result was from, based on what he's said about his result PMs.

the other possibilities are that the mafia has some sort of info-fuck ability like a seemer or w/e. Maybe rising star pointer looks like a civ when checked or something? Or maybe a different one of their background roles can fuck with info-gets.

Or maybe...I don't know...speedchuck lied?

Or.... I’m pretty sure host nation alignments don’t reflect alignment 100% of the time

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Actually scratch that. One confirmed civ. The other one is Speed.

It's just that I've been reading Speed as a civ for a long time.

But the point still stands.

[speedchuck]

myrmeridon crime boy quin was dead at the time of speed targeting lapluie, of the things we know about myrmrmodon ddl or mercenary cbob could be responsible for a wrong result, though it seems like if speed had his target changed then he'd still know who his end target result was from, based on what he's said about his result PMs.

the other possibilities are that the mafia has some sort of info-fuck ability like a seemer or w/e. Maybe rising star pointer looks like a civ when checked or something? Or maybe a different one of their background roles can fuck with info-gets.

Or maybe...I don't know...speedchuck lied?

I have as much info as you guys do. I've sent a PM, just to see if I could learn anything, and Jack isn't giving me an answer. Which, to be fair, I expected, but I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.

To me, this confirms something I have suspected: Mafia has to have a buttload of tricks behind their town role things. They would have to if they want to keep up with a game that has multiple power roles for every player, along with alignment checks, percentage-based vigkills, and townie BTSC.

I'll keep giving you guys my results, but I don't trust them explicitly.

[rundontwalk]

Nah as much as I hate RDW right now lapluie looks worse.

Fuck with cops not giving results. This is grounds for policy lynch in most places.

[VOTE: lapluie] aubergine

I don't like this at all. I think out of Lap vs RDW, rdw is mafia.

Given your scumdar isn't working, how do you feel about me now?

I think SIG is scum because of the post I talk about here. Why does he think only one of me or lap are scum. We could both be scum, no?

[rundontwalk]

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] MacDougall unvoted to White for the exact same reason I did at the same time

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy MacDougall unvoted to White for the exact same reason I did at the same time

No, it wasn't at the same time. There was a 6 hour difference. He came at the start of the wagon, you came at the end.

It wasn't for the same reason because you didn't even give a reason.

And Mac is a confirmed civ.

And he jumped out of it later.

And he did not vote for White right at the moment a wagon on a confirmed baddie started.

[rundontwalk]

I don't have a photographic memory my bad

[dunya]

rezz plz

[rundontwalk]

I did give a reason I didn't want to Lynch a lurker. I thought at the time JJJ might be scum and was wary of him

[rundontwalk]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

[dunya]

is the lion chasing the gazelle or is the gazelle chasing the lion....that is the question

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't have a photographic memory my bad

Me neither, that's why I'm using the ISO buttons.

[dunya]

stop posting DDL! you're going to overtake my post count then I'll have to post a shit ton of OT and drive ya'll made

[dunya]

made = mad. lmao. made. Hi [mention]Made[/mention]! I'm gonna be driving people to you.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

stop posting DDL! you're going to overtake my post count then I'll have to post a shit ton of OT and drive ya'll made

I accept your challenge.

[gwilikers6]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.

He would DEFINITELY do that as scum, for the record. Although I do feel pretty good about him now.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.

He would DEFINITELY do that as scum, for the record. Although I do feel pretty good about him now.

Does he usually bus people as scum? Early argument with him seemed to imply he wasn't aware of the concept of votes making people look bad.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Day 3

Spoiler: show

Mac - Jay
RDW - ID
Kenway - Sig
Bob - ID
LC - Sig
Sprityo - Sig
DDL - Jay
ID - RDW
Jay - Wilgy
Speed - ID
LC - unvote
Mac - Jay
Sprityo - RDW
Epi - Jay
Mac - Jay
Sprityo - Jay
ID - Nutella
LC - Wilgy
Nutella - ID
Kites - RDW
Quin - Nutella
Marmot - Bob
RDW - Jay
Gwilkers6 - ID
lapluie - Nutella
Jay - ID
RDW - Gwilkers6
Jay - unvote
Marmot - Jay
Jay - ID
Dr. Wilgy - Jay
Kylemii - ID
Sig - LC

Mac
RDW
Kenway
Bob
LC
Sprityo
DDL
ID
Jay
Speed
Mac
Sprityo
Epi
Mac
Sprityo
ID
LC
Nutella
Kites
Quin
Marmot
RDW
Gwilkers6
lapluie
Jay
RDW
Marmot
Jay
Dr. Wilgy
Kylemii
Sig

Key:

Orange - Jay
Light Blue - ID
Green - Nutella
Purple - Sig
Yellow - RDW
Others - White

Not a very informative day. Not a single vote on Quin or lapluie. This might become more informative later if one of ID/RDW/Nutella/Sig flip bad, otherwise, meh.

Quin and lapluie try to lynch Nutella, which means she has hands down the best vote tracking in the game, or she is being bussed like hell. 3-headed oroboros indeed, Kyle.

I am pinged by Sig's useless as shit vote near the end though, and though my memory is not 100% trustworthy, I don't recall thinking well of Sig in any of these exercises. I'll look at him more closely after I'm done here.

[Kites]

The Bob wagon is unique in the sense that it's really spread out, it's done by players who were not town leaders (except for Mac near the end), and it's not very susceptible to waffling. The people who voted for Bob sticked to it. Voters #1 and #3 and #5 are civ. If Kites is a civ too, this is a dangerous wagon for scum to be bussing on if Bob is bad, but also easy to blend in. If Bob is a civ then it is just easy. Hard to speculate here.

i came up with the bob case, marmot agreed and voted before I did
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 09#p410109

Sure, but there is another problem. lapluie had 5 votes at the end of Day 2. Dr. White, the victim of misguided civ fury, had 3. Dr. White was lynched in a way that is still unknown by us all. And his three votes were from: two confirmed civs, and RDW. One possible explanation for the White lynch right in front of you.

yeah this is why I voted rdw on day 3 and been suspecting him ever since

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Hey RDW. Just so you know, I'm not mad at you, and I seriously don't want to make enemies with you. I just think you are bad based on some vote analysis. I hope we can be friends after this game.

[Kylemii]

I wanna see what happens when i knock RDW, Cbob, Kyle, and nutella off the lists of possibilities, represented in yellow are 'not likely mafia'

what are the reasons behind the yellow names on this list? most specifically cobbo

An exercise to see what it would look like if everyone voting on big wagons day 1, 3, and 6 are town

okay, but like... what was the specific symptom displayed in this excercise that made you say "cbob is probs good"

[Kites]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

you don’t have to but it’s fool proof way to confirm you’re a civ. unless you both are scum lol

being secretive about night actions looks bad now tho cos of lap and quin

[gwilikers6]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.

He would DEFINITELY do that as scum, for the record. Although I do feel pretty good about him now.

Does he usually bus people as scum? Early argument with him seemed to imply he wasn't aware of the concept of votes making people look bad.

He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

[gwilikers6]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

you don’t have to but it’s fool proof way to confirm you’re a civ. unless you both are scum lol

being secretive about night actions looks bad now tho cos of lap and quin

If that’s what spirit ends up promoting to, I’m down. I just figure my monk role was confirmed enough times that there’s really no need for me to confirm another one, especially when it’s not an info-getting role. I just see no reason to let scum know what I am right now.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Day 6

Spoiler: show

DDL - RDW
RDW - RDW
Sprityo - RDW
Bob - RDW
Kites - RDW
ID - RDW
Epi - lapluie
Speed - ID
ID - Epi
DDL - lapluie
Sprityo - lapluie
Nutella - lapluie
ID - Nutella
Sig - RDW
RDW - lapluie
Epi - Nutella
Epi - ID
RDW - ID
DDL - RDW
DDL - lapluie
RDW - lapluie
DDl - RDW
Gwilkers6 - RDW
Gwilkers6 - lapluie
Epi - lapluie
Kylemii - lapluie
lapluie - RDW

DDL
RDW
Sprityo
Bob
Kites
ID
Epi
Speed
ID
DDL
Sprityo
Nutella
ID
Sig
RDW
Epi
Epi
RDW
DDL
DDL
RDW
DDL
Gwilkers6
Gwilkers6
Epi
Kylemii
lapluie

Key:

Red - lapluie
Green - RDW
Yellow - Nutella
Light Blue - ID
White - Others

Another scum flip means a very interesting day phase.

This day is really lacking on stray wagons. It was lapluie or RDW, with the occasional Nutella and ID pushed by Epi.

The RDW wagon starts with a whopping 6 votes, partly due to my long theory on why he is bad that wa sposted in the previous night. Then Epi brings the alternative. Good Epi. He tries to bring other alternatives to his first one, though. Bad Epi. But he comes through at the end. Good Epi.

The downside of the giant RDW voting is that everything he does can be classified as self-defense, so reading him is hard. He jumped on lap which is good, but he jumped away which is bad, then he jumped in again. If he is a civ this is understandable waffling, if he is bad it's easy bussing.

The upside is that if RDW dies, this day becomes a gold mine of information. Though I'm not about to lynch him just because of that (and the same can be said about the likes of ID and Bob).

Sprityo and Nutella keep looking good as early adopters of the lap lynch. Gwilkers and Kyle look good for pushing when it counted. Bussing always applies, though.

Hard to define what to do with RDW voters. I bet there is scum on his wagon regardless of whether he is civ or bad. I mean, 5 votes (excluding his self-vote). But contrary to his theories, not all 5 are scum. Most of them probably aren't.

And there is that stray Sig vote on RDW in the middle of the lap push. Yeah I'm ISOing this guy.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I rectified my mistake by helping kill lap last round which you didn't do because you were obsessed with me

We'll see about that, I still have to look at Day 6's votes. For all I know you were saving yourself.

He would DEFINITELY do that as scum, for the record. Although I do feel pretty good about him now.

Does he usually bus people as scum? Early argument with him seemed to imply he wasn't aware of the concept of votes making people look bad.

He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

At this point my stance on him is that his vote tracking is hopelessly bad and his alignment depends on whether I believe he has a meta that makes it expected for him to vote that way, or if I stay loyal to evidence.

I'm still waffling on the former but I don't intend to wage a one man war against him. If I can't convince you people, I'll vote elsewhere. I already acted too emotional yesterday for my own liking.