Pikachu Tribe - Day 9

[S~V~S]

[mention]Dom[/mention], I do not think
DH would have acted like
that if he were bad

Most especially
Getting so annoyed at me
For not letting go

That is a bad look
If DH knew LC bad,
He wouldn't do it

During that lynch I
Was pushing DH and chuck
To get a good read

Chuck ignored it all
Except his prime directive;
Save LC, lynch Dom

DH reacted with
Frustration, it felt
very real to me

He got annoyed when
I implied he and Chuck were
Working together

I think he did not
Want to believe that LC
Would make that mistake

Yes I could be wrong
But there are people I watch
Very Carefully

DH is one of them
I do feel good about him;
But Chuck, not so much.

linki DDL
Good Point, I will now *VOTE CHUCK*
My Aubergine Boy


Per host I must still
Haiku, but I have a life
Beyond syllables

[colonialbob]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

[colonialbob]

Btw I bow to your haiku skillz [mention]S~V~S[/mention] I found it tough to put two into a post and here you are dropping double digits

[S~V~S]

[mention]Dom[/mention] why DH and
Not Speedchuck? He tried harder
In saving LC

I'm just curious
About that dichotomy
(Haiku Big Word Prize)

[S~V~S]

Btw I bow to your haiku skillz @S~V~S I found it tough to put two into a post and here you are dropping double digits

I loved poetry
Especially the Haiku
But not so much now

[speedchuck]

speedchuck - - You're eager to lynch me for literally any reason. Is it because you know I'll turn up bad despite being civilian?

I was eager to lynch you before LC ever got a second role.

Soooo no?

Though admittedly, my desire to string you up conflicts with LC's flip (if there is only one scumteam) and doesn't make use of it. So I'll probably end up somewhere else in the next while

[sprityo]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

I mean. Yea. It’s similar to first day in a way

[speedchuck]

I ISO'd Quin, and I don't like his Long Con content. Lots of distancing, lots of scumreading LC without it gaining traction, lots of credit-taking and reminding people that he scumread LC before the slip.

Not to mention that Quin's activity has fallen off the past couple of days, both in post count and in content.

I'm not going to quote everything, but read the most recent page of his ISO.

[DharmaHelper]

I got the feeling that DDL opposed the LC wagon for the sake of opposing it. I might have to re-read, but I dislike it based on that impression.

In my defense I was 95% sure it was impossible to stop the wagon at that point.

And I still want to lynch DH.

Why fam I lynched Long Con

Lynching a baddie who slipped is not an accomplishment.

"Lynching baddies in a game about lynching baddies isn't an accomplishment"

Hot take.

[DharmaHelper]

I mean, it's not like the town doesn't deserve the congratulations, but individual players don't deserve credit for jumping on it way after the case on him had gotten traction.

I was like the third person to vote for him yesterday boss.

[DharmaHelper]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

You know bob's alignment?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

You know bob's alignment?

I think I do? Correct me if i'm wrong, but I've seen people treating him like a lock for a civ all game.

[DharmaHelper]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

You know bob's alignment?

I think I do? Correct me if i'm wrong, but I've seen people treating him like a lock for a civ all game.

You said "We know he's civ"

We...don't.

[nutella]

sorry I'm busy mcbusy and shouldn't be in this many games DDL and Dom are bad k

[sprityo]

sorry I'm busy mcbusy and shouldn't be in this many games DDL and Dom are bad k

k

[speedchuck]

The infamous D2 TIE!!!!

Here we go:

Here are a couple of before and after polls, placing LC's vote as being worth 2 (-2)
The minus 2 assumes that Quin is town. If Quin is scum, LC's vote was worth 2. If Quin is town, his vote was worth 0. Thus, 2 (with an optional -2 addition).

What actually happened:

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 5 or 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

What LC saw if he isn't scum with DDL:

DDL - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 7 or 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

I'm assuming DDL did not put -2 points on me, as scum or town.

. . .

Been staring at these polls for ten minutes. Some observations:

1. If Quin was scum with LC, and his vote was worth 2, LC changed the tide of the lynch. LC did so in a dangerous way, one that revealed that vote manipulations were taking place. He was also the most suspect vote in this case. That's a blow to LC/Quin.

2. If DDL was scum with LC, and Quin was town, then LC would have known what was most likely happening. He also would have seen that the guy with 4 votes (me) getting lynched over the guy with 6 votes (DDL) would have been very incriminating. So he might have vote hopped to avoid suspicion. His vote was probably worth zero anyway, and he might as well make the result look more legitimate. Also, the more he votes for townies, the more -1s he has to his vote. This would help explain how DDL avoided lynching the following day as well. LC is trying to make his vote into a train nullifier.

3. If neither are scum with LC, then LC's vote is most likely worth zero in his eyes. He may have switched his vote at the end to find out, just in case there are other scumteams. That's the only reason I can think of.


It's a difficult puzzle, but I'd say of these three, result 2 is most likely, followed by result 3. Much as I was just suspecting Quin, I don't think LC would have tried to change the tide of the lynch for no reason. LC/Quin is disproven in my book.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, the Nutella lynch on the following day:
DDL (-2 votes) - Epi, cbob, speedchuck, nutella, DH, LC = 4
nutella - Dom, DDL, SVS = 3

If Quin and I are both town, LC's vote was worth -1, two less than normal. If Quin is scum, it's worth 1. Soooo Quin is basically townfirmed. I don't know why we argued with this earlier. Quin and speechuck1 are both townfirms.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Talk to me about all of this please.

Also [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

linkis: Yeah DDL is totes bad guys

[S~V~S]

What history do
you have with LC, Chucky?
Put nothing past him.

"Would" or "would not" do
not apply to him at all
no one is townfirm

[DharmaHelper]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

[speedchuck]

"Would" or "would not" do
not apply to him at all
no one is townfirm

It is mathematically impossible for Quin to be scum, unless there's another vote manipulator in the game.

Read my POOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSST

[speedchuck]

No, but seriously SVS. I'm not putting anything past LC. I posed each possible world that we are in, except for Quin/LC/DDL scumteam. I looked at LC's actions. All are possible. Some are more likely than others.

But Quin's townfirm comes from numbers. I'm not making assumptions this time, other than the assumption that another vote manip isn't active on D3.

[S~V~S]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

I agree, and I
Also agree with this post
quoted right below.

Or Indie or maybe Civ. Wouldn't really make sense I guess for a baddie to block their own kill.

This is why I said
This this morning about
my DDL read,

His number came up.....
Accurate euphemism?
wait till he checks in

I don't know why my role number showed up and I can't comment on whether this speculation on what my role is is correct or not.

I know you cannot
Two I won't vote for next poll
DDL; Sprityo

Sorry I did not
Give you credit and quoted
DDL not you

linki at Speedchuck
Sorry, no townfirms can be
found in this set up

Only opinion
Can be possible in a
Closed Set up like this

[S~V~S]

"Would" or "would not" do
not apply to him at all
no one is townfirm

It is mathematically impossible for Quin to be scum, unless there's another vote manipulator in the game.

Read my POOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSST

Unless will negate
surety every time
too many unknowns

[S~V~S]

POE Quin is
Likely the Fridge IMO
But I could be wrong

[speedchuck]

linki at Speedchuck
Sorry, no townfirms can be
found in this set up

Only opinion
Can be possible in a
Closed Set up like this

[speedchuck]

Also, if I were the fridge (it's confirmed that I am not) I wouldn't have sent in a night action last night.

[colonialbob]

"Would" or "would not" do
not apply to him at all
no one is townfirm

It is mathematically impossible for Quin to be scum, unless there's another vote manipulator in the game.

Read my POOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSST

Unless will negate
surety every time
too many unknowns

Ok, but that doesn't mean we just ignore the evidence we do have, right? Especially since we'll have a better idea of vote manipulation as more roles get revealed. Sure it's not a certainty but I think it provides a starting point.

(Kinda off-topic metadiscussion but I tend to view mafia through a Bayesian lens - because we can't know things for certainty, we just update our probabilities based on the information we do have and recognize those can and will change with further information. I have no idea if this train of thought is productive for you, if not feel free to ignore it)

[DharmaHelper]

I took Dom's online seminar about scumslip finding and DDL said he knows Cbob is a civ.

[speedchuck]

Regarding Quin being town:

Anything could have happened to result in the nutella lynch. Any kind of vote manipulations that could subtract 4 from the leading train. DDL was part of it, we know that. He took away two votes of the required four.
Long Con was on the DDL train. If his vote was worth -1 instead of 1, everything makes sense.
Sure, his vote could have been worth 1, with Quin being scum. And maybe another voter just happened to pop in and lower that vote by two somehow, though I would find it obscene. Those two things could have happened.

But I've been handed a concrete, role-based explanation for an outlandish lynch result on a silver platter. In any other game, we'd be screaming "HOW THE HECK DID THAT HAPPEN?" In this game, we have an explanation for the unlikely event. I'll look no further unless given reason.

It's like if you suddenly received a million dollars in your account. Then a rich dude contacts you and says that he did it, and shows you his bank receipt as proof. But you can't be SURE it was him, because the bank might have blocked the transfer and someone else might have done it. So you don't thank him.
That's what ignoring Quin's semi-townfirm status would be like.

[S~V~S]

"Would" or "would not" do
not apply to him at all
no one is townfirm

It is mathematically impossible for Quin to be scum, unless there's another vote manipulator in the game.

Read my POOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSST

Unless will negate
surety every time
too many unknowns

Ok, but that doesn't mean we just ignore the evidence we do have, right? Especially since we'll have a better idea of vote manipulation as more roles get revealed. Sure it's not a certainty but I think it provides a starting point.

(Kinda off-topic metadiscussion but I tend to view mafia through a Bayesian lens - because we can't know things for certainty, we just update our probabilities based on the information we do have and recognize those can and will change with further information. I have no idea if this train of thought is productive for you, if not feel free to ignore it)

No we don't ignore
But LC's lynch, Chuck looks bad
ver very bad

I can't confirm a
person on supposition
If i suspect them

Chuck aggressively
Tried to save the known baddie
who was a seemer

[Epignosis]

LC wasn't a seemer. He could make someone else look like a different alignment.

Furthermore, I have a hard time believing anyone aligned with Long Con would really try to save him after that mess.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Why are people voting for Bob when we know he is a civ?

Even if there are reasons to think he will be lynched today regardlessly, why are we helping?

Isn't it better to make a statement and vote for the one you think is bad?

You know bob's alignment?

I think I do? Correct me if i'm wrong, but I've seen people treating him like a lock for a civ all game.

You said "We know he's civ"

We...don't.

I'm parroting someone who said this on like day 1 and I don't remember who it was.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Yes I know this makes me look bad but I don't care.

This game has a ridiculous amount of information that people usually know in a game of mafia but we don't here. And that we are not allowed to reveal. So it's easy for people to make assumptions which may or may not look like slips.

So no, I don't know that Cbob is a civ, but I was assuming that he was.

[S~V~S]

LC wasn't a seemer. He could make someone else look like a different alignment.

Furthermore, I have a hard time believing anyone aligned with Long Con would really try to save him after that mess.

Hard to be precise
When posting in Haiku form
You ken my meaning

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I mean, it's not like the town doesn't deserve the congratulations, but individual players don't deserve credit for jumping on it way after the case on him had gotten traction.

I was like the third person to vote for him yesterday boss.

That's a good spot for bussing someone, specially someone who already got lynched once for a reason that hasn't suddenly stopped being untrue.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The infamous D2 TIE!!!!

Here we go:

Here are a couple of before and after polls, placing LC's vote as being worth 2 (-2)
The minus 2 assumes that Quin is town. If Quin is scum, LC's vote was worth 2. If Quin is town, his vote was worth 0. Thus, 2 (with an optional -2 addition).

What actually happened:

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 5 or 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

What LC saw if he isn't scum with DDL:

DDL - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 7 or 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

I'm assuming DDL did not put -2 points on me, as scum or town.

. . .

Been staring at these polls for ten minutes. Some observations:

1. If Quin was scum with LC, and his vote was worth 2, LC changed the tide of the lynch. LC did so in a dangerous way, one that revealed that vote manipulations were taking place. He was also the most suspect vote in this case. That's a blow to LC/Quin.

2. If DDL was scum with LC, and Quin was town, then LC would have known what was most likely happening. He also would have seen that the guy with 4 votes (me) getting lynched over the guy with 6 votes (DDL) would have been very incriminating. So he might have vote hopped to avoid suspicion. His vote was probably worth zero anyway, and he might as well make the result look more legitimate. Also, the more he votes for townies, the more -1s he has to his vote. This would help explain how DDL avoided lynching the following day as well. LC is trying to make his vote into a train nullifier.

3. If neither are scum with LC, then LC's vote is most likely worth zero in his eyes. He may have switched his vote at the end to find out, just in case there are other scumteams. That's the only reason I can think of.


It's a difficult puzzle, but I'd say of these three, result 2 is most likely, followed by result 3. Much as I was just suspecting Quin, I don't think LC would have tried to change the tide of the lynch for no reason. LC/Quin is disproven in my book.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, the Nutella lynch on the following day:
DDL (-2 votes) - Epi, cbob, speedchuck, nutella, DH, LC = 4
nutella - Dom, DDL, SVS = 3

If Quin and I are both town, LC's vote was worth -1, two less than normal. If Quin is scum, it's worth 1. Soooo Quin is basically townfirmed. I don't know why we argued with this earlier. Quin and speechuck1 are both townfirms.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Talk to me about all of this please.

Also [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

linkis: Yeah DDL is totes bad guys

I don't know why you are redoing all of this when I all but cracked the d2 lynch a few days ago. Did you not read it or you think my math is wrong because I'm an evil manipulative baddie?

And you think I'm bad because LC was saving me? What if like... LC just voted for a random civ to look natural himself and call it a day?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

They did, and concluded it was wild speculation.

Get over it.

[DharmaHelper]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

They did, and concluded it was wild speculation.

Get over it.

Why is it you suspect me again?

[colonialbob]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

What do you want us to talk about? I'm not sure of the relevance honestly, maybe I'm missing something.

I took Dom's online seminar about scumslip finding and DDL said he knows Cbob is a civ.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's unfortunate LC but I don't see a way out for you bud. Even if you could convince me, I doubt you'd be able to convince literally anyone else. I agree with you that Dom looks bad. I'd have to revisit DDL but I've never felt great about him as a civ. SVS I am making a conscious effort not to read. I'm dead even on everyone else.

I hate this post.

If you think LC is telling the truth vote for him, do not accept his death because you think everyone else will.

Any time I see a player pull the "Oh golly Gee Mr. Police Mans, I just hate to vote to lynch this person, surely I do. But I gotta, you see? I gotta. I hate to do it boss, but I gotta. Sure hope it works out. Not sure it will, but I hope it does." routine it bugs me. Like, if you don't want to vote for the guy, don't. If you think he's civ or whatever, toss a different name in the hat. You don't *have* to vote for anyone.

DH right now.

And don't tell me there's a "non-zero chance Dom slipped".

There is a non-zero chance everyone is bad. Do better.

How the fuck do you not see this as a slip??

I wouldn't be too surprised if the civs had a vote manipulator as well.

I guess Dom just forgot about DDL? Or does Dom just, as a Civ, so convinced DDL is bad that he meant it that way?

Like, fuck, I get that you think I'm bad but that doesn't mean you just have to shit on my suspicions. This one is pretty significant.

Speculation is not a slip.

Watch this:

"I wouldn't be too surprised if there are two mafia teams in this game."

Explain to me how that was a slip.

What you just did was confirm that YOU knew DDL's first role was a civilian role.

See how that works?

You are BAD.

Not quite the same thing but at this point I have no desire or energy anymore to argue with anyone.

DIsagrees with Epi's logic but will let it pass.

Bad.

[DharmaHelper]

I woke up at 1:30AM and fever-dream posted a theory that DDL was Mr. Freeze and no one wants to talk about it.

What do you want us to talk about? I'm not sure of the relevance honestly, maybe I'm missing something.

I took Dom's online seminar about scumslip finding and DDL said he knows Cbob is a civ.

It was a half joke. wondering if anyone else has any theories about it, or what the numbers mean or whatevers.

[DharmaHelper]

Spoiler: show

It's unfortunate LC but I don't see a way out for you bud. Even if you could convince me, I doubt you'd be able to convince literally anyone else. I agree with you that Dom looks bad. I'd have to revisit DDL but I've never felt great about him as a civ. SVS I am making a conscious effort not to read. I'm dead even on everyone else.

I hate this post.

If you think LC is telling the truth vote for him, do not accept his death because you think everyone else will.

Any time I see a player pull the "Oh golly Gee Mr. Police Mans, I just hate to vote to lynch this person, surely I do. But I gotta, you see? I gotta. I hate to do it boss, but I gotta. Sure hope it works out. Not sure it will, but I hope it does." routine it bugs me. Like, if you don't want to vote for the guy, don't. If you think he's civ or whatever, toss a different name in the hat. You don't *have* to vote for anyone.

DH right now.

And don't tell me there's a "non-zero chance Dom slipped".

There is a non-zero chance everyone is bad. Do better.

How the fuck do you not see this as a slip??

I wouldn't be too surprised if the civs had a vote manipulator as well.

I guess Dom just forgot about DDL? Or does Dom just, as a Civ, so convinced DDL is bad that he meant it that way?

Like, fuck, I get that you think I'm bad but that doesn't mean you just have to shit on my suspicions. This one is pretty significant.

Speculation is not a slip.

Watch this:

"I wouldn't be too surprised if there are two mafia teams in this game."

Explain to me how that was a slip.

What you just did was confirm that YOU knew DDL's first role was a civilian role.

See how that works?

You are BAD.

Not quite the same thing but at this point I have no desire or energy anymore to argue with anyone.

DIsagrees with Epi's logic but will let it pass.

Bad.

Cool but like, why does that make me bad? Can you explain without quoting these posts, and without just saying "You are bad."

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If you want me to provide a thesis that shows why those things prove you are bad, you will be disappointed.

I just think you were trying to stop LC from being lynched while not being too obvious about it. And I felt like the way you were dealing wth the lynch felt artificial.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also I think it's weird how you are now thinking I'm Mr. Freeze or whatever considering you were pretty sure of my role early on.

[DharmaHelper]

If you want me to provide a thesis that shows why those things prove you are bad, you will be disappointed.

I just think you were trying to stop LC from being lynched while not being too obvious about it. And I felt like the way you were dealing wth the lynch felt artificial.

[DharmaHelper]

Also I think it's weird how you are now thinking I'm Mr. Freeze or whatever considering you were pretty sure of my role early on.

[speedchuck]

I don't know why you are redoing all of this when I all but cracked the d2 lynch a few days ago. Did you not read it or you think my math is wrong because I'm an evil manipulative baddie?

And you think I'm bad because LC was saving me? What if like... LC just voted for a random civ to look natural himself and call it a day?

I do recall you doing it, but forgot what you concluded. So I worked it again with fresh eyes. You're welcome to link your version to me.

I think that it's possible LC was saving you. I also think it's possible that LC switched for other reasons. I think the former is more probably.
You'll notice that my post considers all possibilities, if you read anything other than the conclusion.

I have been having trouble with people not reading my entire posts.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't know why you are redoing all of this when I all but cracked the d2 lynch a few days ago. Did you not read it or you think my math is wrong because I'm an evil manipulative baddie?

And you think I'm bad because LC was saving me? What if like... LC just voted for a random civ to look natural himself and call it a day?

I do recall you doing it, but forgot what you concluded. So I worked it again with fresh eyes. You're welcome to link your version to me.

I think that it's possible LC was saving you. I also think it's possible that LC switched for other reasons. I think the former is more probably.
You'll notice that my post considers all possibilities, if you read anything other than the conclusion.

I have been having trouble with people not reading my entire posts.

Fine, sorry for being rude. It just bothered that someone ignored it then did it again and added "conclusion: DDL is bad" at the end. It was an automatic reaction.

Also i'm ignoring most posts that feature wild speculation on how other people could be baddies trying to save me, because I can do nothing but disagree with them and point how they are wild speculation.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's the same as LC's series of posts proving I was bad with Dom. I was like "Ok".

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't know why you are redoing all of this when I all but cracked the d2 lynch a few days ago. Did you not read it or you think my math is wrong because I'm an evil manipulative baddie?

And you think I'm bad because LC was saving me? What if like... LC just voted for a random civ to look natural himself and call it a day?

I do recall you doing it, but forgot what you concluded. So I worked it again with fresh eyes. You're welcome to link your version to me.

I think that it's possible LC was saving you. I also think it's possible that LC switched for other reasons. I think the former is more probably.
You'll notice that my post considers all possibilities, if you read anything other than the conclusion.

I have been having trouble with people not reading my entire posts.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 11#p419011

[speedchuck]

Fine, sorry for being rude.

You weren't that rude, bro. I've been like, waaaaay ruder to people suspecting me.

I probably even threw more passive aggressive rudeness at you right now than you sent my way.

We good fam.