Hogwarts Mafia - END

[timmer]

I'm heading to bed. Ultimately we need to find a baddie to lynch by tomorrow.

[MacDougall]

How crazy! You're crazy DH.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm heading to bed. Ultimately we need to find a baddie to lynch by tomorrow.

This is correct. We do need to lynch baddies. Yes very nice.

[DharmaHelper]

How crazy! You're crazy DH.

[MacDougall]

Crazy!

[nutella]

Any number of blocks, redirects, delays, etc could account for the kill fuckery.

I mean... those can't increase the number of kills...

[DharmaHelper]

Any number of blocks, redirects, delays, etc could account for the kill fuckery.

I mean... those can't increase the number of kills...

Hm? How do you take my comment with respect to the number of kills? The 3 kills N2 would look to me to be the max, if Timmer's Skrewt got Skrewed N1?

[nutella]

yeah the 3 deaths n2 was really a lot. I guess it can't really be that there are 4 civs with skrewts (2 odd 2 even) because that would be crazy unbalanced, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's an SK either -- maybe a mafia member or two has a skrewt so there's actually an extra mafia kill (and if I read the rules correctly the skrewt turns into a super-kill when held by mafia, but those can still be redirected)

[nutella]

Any number of blocks, redirects, delays, etc could account for the kill fuckery.

I mean... those can't increase the number of kills...

Hm? How do you take my comment with respect to the number of kills? The 3 kills N2 would look to me to be the max, if Timmer's Skrewt got Skrewed N1?

well, per night since creatures alternate nights, yeah I guess the per-night max as 3 makes sense. still seems like a lot

[DharmaHelper]

Why have the "if the player who has the skrewt is bad it turns into a super skrewt" qualifier in the set up if he wasn''t going to give the mafia at least one Skrewt.

[DharmaHelper]

Oh wait it just says it boosts existing kills, not gives them an additional kill.

2 Civ Vigs seems like the most likely scenario to me. Not wholly off-balance, I'd think?

[poutanko]

@poutanko, I can see in your post history general trajectories and with them may come implied reads, but there isn't total clarity.

Who do you most trust?

Who do you least trust?

Multiple names per question would be super.

I'll go with what I feel/impression I got. I haven't ISOed anyone again.
Most:
Colin still
nutella - actually looks like female Colin but then D2 happened. I haven't reread her posts but the general feel about her is still the same as my initial impression I got from her.
MacD - looks like lazy Colin, Colin is more hyper? this one is lazier.
kara - frustrated newbie town, I will feel easier about her if she starts posting again.
Luna - should be Town looking at her interaction with INH and their tone, not as easy as my initial feel of her.

Least:
Bullz/Speed 2.0 - I don't trust him still. I was thinking timmer/bullz/LC could be team mates (with timmer vouching Bullz after novase flip -unexpected judging from the reaction- and LC looking like he's trying to lessen the pressure on Bullz by brushing it off as something normal). Timmer's claim sounds genuine, I still feel uneasy with the other 2.
LongCon - on and off town/scum feel. His reaction on Bullz vote was not what I expected. People sussing Bullz for his weird vote on Novase is what I think would be the normal reaction, not his.
DH/you gave me uneasy feeling. Both of you are vet players/oldfags. DH just fooled me completely on Outpost. Nothing look sus if I think about it but something doesn't feel right.
Glorf - your creepy fan
timmer was here but his claim and the way he said it feels genuine.

[poutanko]

Add Owner on most with Luna as INH is scum.

[Sloonei]

Add Owner on most with Luna as INH is scum.

u wot?

[Sloonei]

Oh I read that backwards.

I’m Owner now, btw.

[MacDougall]

Slowner?

[Glorfindel]

Anybody about?

[Glorfindel]

Apparently not...?

Well, seeing no one is around, I might as well put some of my more well-formed thoughts out there:

I still have a strong degree of confidence of Jay being Town and likewise Master-Sloonei and have seen nothing from either of them that gives me cause to doubt them.

Mac is interesting. I have no issue with his content - it sounds to me like it would come from a Town perspective and that’s fine. The issue I’m having with him though is his cavalier posting - I’m used to something far more ‘direct’ and aggressive from him with reference to his approach to the game. I don’t know what he’d hope to achieve by behaving in this way if he were Mafia and I’ll admit (almost more than anyone else) he seems to be able to come up with some genuinely thought provoking material (like his theorising about the true alignment of the NKs). Again, I don’t know that a Mafia would do that.

LC, too, is strange to me. Day 1 I had the impression that he was Town but for reasons I can’t quite put my finger on right now, I feel his stocks are slipping a little.

I’m honestly, sincerely trying really hard to let go of my previous doubts about Quin but as hard as I might, I can’t completely escape them. There is like an abruptness (and snipiness?) about his posts this game the likes of which I don’t think I’ve witnessed before.

Jack: There’s nothing there that seems to be convincing me that this guy is Town. Again, it’s just like a spidey-sense thing and I can’t exactly elaborate further at this point in time.

Nutella: Another one! Felt good about her Day 1 and now, well, not quite so convinced - especially after that silly ‘You’re on Notice’ post. Like, I mean, what WAS that? Clearly it wasn’t intended as a means of engaging with the players that she nominated. We’re still to see any real analysis arise from that post. It just gave me this ‘belligerent’ vibe that again, I don’t know that i see any degree of genuineness there.

Finally, there’s Epi. I’ve not seen that much from him and what I have seen, hasn’t impressed me much. For someone so experienced and competent here at The Syndicate, I find he’s been more ‘superficial’ in his posts than I recall has been the case in previous games. As I mentioned earlier, I think he’s very strong as Mafia and could be flying under the radar a bit.

[MacDougall]

Got a tidy list of scum reads there.

[Lunalee]

Spoiler: show

Lisa and Isaiah

Things INH said to/about Lunalee:

LIKE!

INH used Luna's vague gripe against me as a springboard to promote his own previously-stated suspicion of me. K.

Spoiler: show

I just read through INH and I don't see any reason to call him a civ. There wasn't a lot there and he seems to be missing after saying he would try to be here more on day 2. Low performing INH in my experience = bad INH. I could see a vote there unless I'm missing some good reason not to.

alrighty now catching up, but literally popped into the most recent page to post about how I'm townreading Kara the most and wishing that JJJ was in one of his moody self-loathing moods instead of his SUUUUUUUUUPATOWN (PAY ATTENTION TO THE WORDS I SPEAK) moods. Not sure if/how that impacts his alignment, but he's certainly TALKING VERY LOUD, and making GRAND SWEEPING DECLARATIVE STATEMENTS ABOUT THE PROPER WAY TO PLAY MAFIA. It's like he tried posting differently on D1, got a negative response, then reverted back to his standard shtick.

Then, I see this stupid post by Juliets. Juliets, you're a lovely person, and a wonderful fixture in this community, but this is like the second game that you've pushed this weird forced "low-posting INH = bad INH" thing. It's dumb. I'm at a point in my life where my mafia time is limited. I have just finished another game, and started the sign up process for a game that I'm hosting. Yesterday was a holiday. This thread is, in standard Full Job fashion, too damn long. There's no way that I could be whatever the fuck you'd call a "high performing INH" right now. My level of activity is dependent on the length/density of the thread, the amount of games I'm concurrently playing/hosting, and the things happening in my life. Not what alignment I am. So, please kindly stop pushing this idea. It irks me.

Still have like 6 pages to get through. Will continually update with more commentary.

PS: Day 1's are, have been, and always will be random garbage-y crapshoots barring major fuckery.

Okay, inh is town

Nutella is too quick to buy INH's response. I get that he's busy and has limited time for mafia. But when he does have time to post, his content still pings me as not fully genuine. Maybe I'm just a skeptic, but giving commentary on what's happening in the game, giving out fluffy/non reads, defending your own meta, and using the "busy" excuse, however true it may be, just makes me more inclined to suspect that you are scum.
So far INH's reads are Kara is town, JJJ looks a "tad suspicious," and Owner should be lynched.
I currently think Kara looks suspicious, and see no reason to town read him. Sort of agree with the JJJ thing, and disagree that Owner should be lynched.

well gee wilikers, I'm sorry that my opinions aren't enough for you Luna. Not sure where the hell you got the "fluffy non-reads" from. Scumreading JJJ, Owner, and Juliets currently. Townreading Kara, because her responses to folks attacking her sound hella genuine to me. Apologies that my ""busy" excuse" just makes you more inclined to scumread me. You're certainly entitled to your own opinion.

If you want to unduly dismiss everything I've said in this game and view it in the most negative possible light for no other substantive reason other than "I'm a skeptic," then, well, you can certainly choose to do that.

There's something awkward about this exchange which I am finding difficult to describe. INH was snarky in his response to Luna's beefs as he often is, but it feels a bit different in this case. In his sarcasm he is accepting of Luna's suspicion ("You're certainly entitled to your own opinion" / "you can certainly choose to do that"). Note the first sentence that I have highlighted: this is a characteristic response by INH to an accuser, but does it fit the accusation? Luna suggested INH's pings are not fully genuine, but not that they're "lacking" or "unsubstantial" or the like. The latter terms apply more to INH's response re: "aren't enough for you". The disconnect makes this read more manufactured than INH's similar snark as he handled Long Con and myself, for example.

This is a crucial exchange to assess if you are going to label Lunalee a mafia teammate of INH. It covers three posts for each of them, and mutual suspicion is being exchanged throughout. I think the language they use here is compatible for mafia teammates, but it doesn't scream at me. Indeed, moments of doubt are preventing me from harshing too much on Luna's vibe:

INH's "based on my dastardly practice of providing commentary on the thread" -- appeal to emotion junk which belittle's Luna's suspicion

Luna's "But lol, you don't feel great about nutella for her quick flop on you, but "I started it" by expressing my suspicions?"



I hope others will chime in on this exchange. The read can probably be reduced to this point, and it's a tough call.

Spoiler: show

I looked over Luna's posts in U-Pick and Mega Man (mafia in both). It's difficult to identify any tonal differences with this game. In terms of content, I do observe that in her mafia performances she was inclined toward individualized player analysis, in the forms of large quote compilations, ISOs, or thorough reads lists, in a way that isn't quite as visible here. Her hunting activity is more reactive and less self-constructed.

Luna is definitely reactionary right now. It reminds me of my earlier mafia career where I would freak out once I realized that I was being eyed. But she seems to be flailing with no idea of an overarching goal. Vote bullz. Don't vote bullz. But vote bullz. But maybe Kara. But no bullz... it's dizzying.

This. Her 3 targets that she's focused on, Bullz, Kara, and me, have all been easy suspicions to come by, and mostly feel like her hopping onto easy suspects already mentioned by others. She criticized me for having too few/weak reads, and only providing "commentary" to the thread, while she herself has been guilty of all of that.

I always read willful hypocrisy as a scumtell. Other folks I'd be down to lynching: Glorf, Owner, and maaaaaybe JJJ. Need to read up on all of three of them before I decisively side against them.

[VOTE: lunalee] aubergine

INH continued to dump on Luna for taking the easy way out and hypocrisy (the latter accusation being an absolutely false representation of their content comparatively). Lunalee was pretty lynchable on Day 2, so this vote is important. It's difficult to assess relative to the Soneji wagon which sprung up late. Bullzeye might be a more accurate counterwagon at this moment.

Things Lunalee said to/about INH:

Luna LIKEs my case on INH

Lunalee was one of the first to acknowledge my suspicion of INH, and it actually took a while for anyone else to give a shit (the only other response I saw in a quick skim was DH making fun of it). I think that's decent for her. The thing was basically forgotten within ten minutes of my having posted it, and she brought it back.

Spoiler: show

Changing my vote to kara, because timmer's on board with it. And because no one shares my INH suspicions.

This one's not ideal. At least one person definitely shared the INH suspicion (the one who made the case she agreed with). There was enough time left in the day at this point to promote the lynch of any player on the roster.

Spoiler: show

Who buys INH as a civilian?

I'm not really sure how to read INH, but he sure didn't appreciate my suspicions of him yesterday. Feel free to go back and look.

Once my life is no longer endangered, I will happily join the INH lynch

I don't know what point Luna is making in the first post there. She has stated her suspicions, but this one seems to be a reversion to neutrality (at least in the specific language employed if not necessarily in spirit). The second one bugs me a bit, as at that point there were about 80 minutes remaining in the day. Self-preservation isn't so crucial with that much time remaining and numerous players present playing the game. Push the lynch you want as long as you can. This might be more of a strategic gripe than one which is indicative of alignment.

~~~

Conclusion

This is a very mixed bag. I think INH's posts are barely good for her, and Luna's own posts are barely bad for her. If they're teammates then their distancing effort was thorough. It strikes me as relatively plausible.
Luna at least needs to answer for her handling of INH late in Day 2, per the last two points in this analysis.

Okay:
INH's posts look very scummy now that he's confirmed bad, but late on day 2, I was still back-and-forth on my read of him. I did heavily suspect him previously (you quoted all that), but it ended with me just sort of walking away, because I wasn't sure what else to say to INH, or if he was really bad or not. It was a lack of confidence on my part, and I really should have just looked past that and went for the lynch. As far as not voting for INH late in the day, I had to leave the thread 30 min before EOD, so I went for the "safe" lynch of Soneji to make sure I didn't die.

[Jackofhearts2005]

INH- Eh...stop worrying about what other people have to say about you and do something worthwhile with your life, unlike David Lynch.

This is just good advice for me in general.

This interaction is the most eyebrow raising because it almost seems like in thread coaching.

No interactions with:

Colin
DH
Glor
Poutanko
Quin

Poutanko and Glor makes sense. The other three not so much.

If INH is really Mafia, I'd clear nutella, lunalee, Jay and Jack.

Is this a pure “INH content aimed at these players” read?

[ColinIsCool]

Nobody cares about Colin right now. Why is he throwing in the towel?

Am I throwing in the towel?

[Lunalee]

Spoiler: show

the difference between this game and the last game as far as number of opinions from me goes is that in the previous game the few opinions I had were confident and also correct with little basis required up until maybe like day six.

I defended players I knew were civs and voted for my own teammates because I could, and because it was easy, and it made me seem trustworthy to basically everyone except long con. In this game I have few opinions because I've only read like 1/3 of the pages

Did Kylemii just scum-slip?

whaddya mean

He gives a comparison:
Last game (scum): confident opinions, defended players who were civ, voted for his teammates, acted trustworthy
This game (unknown): I have few opinions because I haven't been around.
Not: I have few opinions because I'm town.

So... Ugh... Luna, is that a serious case? Like, you legit think his word choice here is a scumslip? Or is this a desperate attempt at a case to take pressure off of you...

Honestly, no. My use of the term "scum slip" was a little heavy. I just wanted to point out that Kylemii's excuse for not "being on top of things" was because he's "busy."

JUST when I thought I could clear Luna :/

Translation: Thank GOODNESS I can still peg Luna as scum and get her lynched.

[ColinIsCool]

Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!

Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?

[ColinIsCool]

@ColinIsCool, as this day phase began you provided a few examples of mafia-INH from past games to describe his treatment of his teammates. I'd like to see how you apply that information to the present game.

Unfortunately I didn’t find anything that excited me. It’s tough to say whether he was bussing or not too because the UPick game didn’t see him have to. Ultimately a null exercise.

Would Mafia Colin have gone to the effort, unprovoked, to start building a distancing/bussing case on INH and then back off it so tepidly?

If INH looked like getting lynched I suspect Colin would have pointed at these posts for cred. It's a bad look imo. It seems like a hedge designed to make him look good in the event of an INH lynch without getting himself into the position of having to actually push [mention]ColinIsCool[/mention]
I made these posts after INH died. Learn to read bitch

[ColinIsCool]

I have to learn to use tags too I guess.

[Jackofhearts2005]

When Jay and Mac coming up with entirely different “did not interact with INH” lists.

[ColinIsCool]

ColinIsCool, as this day phase began you provided a few examples of mafia-INH from past games to describe his treatment of his teammates. I'd like to see how you apply that information to the present game.

Unfortunately I didn’t find anything that excited me. It’s tough to say whether he was bussing or not too because the UPick game didn’t see him have to. Ultimately a null exercise.

Would Mafia Colin have gone to the effort, unprovoked, to start building a distancing/bussing case on INH and then back off it so tepidly?

If INH looked like getting lynched I suspect Colin would have pointed at these posts for cred. It's a bad look imo. It seems like a hedge designed to make him look good in the event of an INH lynch without getting himself into the position of having to actually push it.

I was about to say something here, but I'll let Colin do answer to it first. @ColinIsCool go

You too, Jay.

[ColinIsCool]

Mac is fake as fuck. He doth protest too much and his ideas aren’t grounded in reality.

[ColinIsCool]

(okay, that was a fun exercise, and in doing it I guess there wasn't quite as much suspicious content as it felt like there was. I think my point about LC is the one most worth considering.)

Ok, you do it. Discuss reasons why Colin might do that.

Well he could be town wanting to get confirmed, but as Quin pointed out, why? He's barely even been suspected at all until now -- and what's more, he had just pointed out his fear that rezzes were either gone or in the wrong hands. If he's town he can't count on a rez, by his own admission. He can only rely on a rez if he's bad and knows his team has one. Whether he has some way to appear civ upon flip, or whether his team will rez him as a confirmed baddie, I can't say, but there doesn't really seem to be a town explanation.

I think nutella is town from this fwiw. Total shades of Easter talking herself into every possible combination of goodness and badness in everything.

[ColinIsCool]

Can people please address my question from yesterday re: Niffler.

[ColinIsCool]

Guys, I always write the way I write in this game. I don't like to push ideas if I'm unsure of them, so I always make clear that I'm unsure. It's how ive always posted in mafia. So if you are going to lynch me for it, honestly I'm prob done for good. This is the very reason ive gone such long stretches without playing, this happens every fucking time.

If you are a member of the mafia team and you just typed this into our beautiful game thread, then you deserve to be modkilled. It's not ideal from a civilian either, as you've shamed people who are merely trying their best and threatened "I'm prob done for good". That's not cool. I understand though that on the civilian side, it can be more difficult to shed that emotion in a heated moment.

I am inclined to view this as civilian frustration expressed in an unfortunate manner. I will vote elsewhere.

I apologize. People are doing their best. But this happens every time I tryto play, and it insanely frustrating to write honest thoughts and have my natural wording style get me lynched. I can't defend against it. But yeah its no one's fault.

I feel for timmer here. I just come into threads and don’t think about what I’m saying because I’m not hiding anything and then a buncha cosmic brain theories come out about me being Keyser Soze. Every game. This post will probably get it too. Timmer town.

[Long Con]

Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!

Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?

On the contrary, it was my first notion. Then I realized it assumes you're Civ, and I took a look at the flip side.

Your reaction to this post is markedly different than nutella's to the same post where she describes me as: "simultaneously making Mr. Cool look villainous and deterring his lynch by implying that it's what the mafia want".

[Long Con]

You don't really have to be a baddie-who-can-appear-as-Civ-upon-lynch to pull this as a baddie. You just have to know that there's no way everyone's going to go along with this plan.

I mean, you know that, right? Do you really expect us to hijack a lynch just so you can die and get rezzed?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You too, Jay.

You said what I was going to say.

[poutanko]

[VOTE: speedchuck 2.0] aubergine
Do better than your predecessor.

[speedchuck]

And ultimately I now have to ask... speedchuck 2.0, since you are bullz do you have anything that needs to be added to this info mess I have caused?

Looks like you cleared it all up already. I'm still catching up this morning. Bullz didn't redirect or kill anyone.

[speedchuck]

Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!

Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?

Yeah, because the rezzes have been so available and stuff so far. Let's totally waste a lynch on you and hope that third night's the charm.

[speedchuck]

- This is not a bastard game, so I will not lie to you. However, it is possible for abilities that obtain information to be fooled.

Screw all of last night's foolishness you dillweeds.

INH was scum. Nova was scum. DDL does not lie to us publicly, as said above. These were reveals, not cop checks or ability related info.

10 points to Hufflepuff.

[speedchuck]

Funny how looking at the rules for five seconds can be enlightening.

[speedchuck]

[mention]nutella[/mention] Have you had a scum game more recent than Fire Emblem?
[mention]Glorfindel[/mention] I'd like to see a scum game of yours. Don't really care who points me to it.

Currently leaning more town on Nutella than before, based on the past few pages of content.

[Quin]

Nobody cares about Colin right now. Why is he throwing in the towel?

Am I throwing in the towel?

Yes. Goodnight.

[Quin]

also vote colin

[Lunalee]

Looks like I have close to 6 hours to catch up, analyze INH's interactions, and read other people's analyses of INH's interactions, find who's bad, and lynch them. That's my plan for today. I'll be around.

[DharmaHelper]

Spoiler: show

Did Kylemii just scum-slip?

whaddya mean

He gives a comparison:
Last game (scum): confident opinions, defended players who were civ, voted for his teammates, acted trustworthy
This game (unknown): I have few opinions because I haven't been around.
Not: I have few opinions because I'm town.

So... Ugh... Luna, is that a serious case? Like, you legit think his word choice here is a scumslip? Or is this a desperate attempt at a case to take pressure off of you...

Honestly, no. My use of the term "scum slip" was a little heavy. I just wanted to point out that Kylemii's excuse for not "being on top of things" was because he's "busy."

JUST when I thought I could clear Luna :/

Translation: Thank GOODNESS I can still peg Luna as scum and get her lynched.

Don't tempt me with a good time.

[speedchuck]

Glorfindel has said that he "believes Jay to be a civilian"
He has also said he is "NOT trying to buddy him"

If we take these statements at face value and assumed them to be true, Jay and Glorf are not W/W. And also if Glorf is scum, I don't know what he's trying to do this game.

That's why I want to see a Glorf scum game.

[speedchuck]

Am I nuts or is "Maybe the guys who are flipping bad are actually good" Not a civilian-minded conspiracy theory? What is even the point here? How has this become the hot topic of the day?

Since when do we have two dead Mafia on day 3 with zero having been lynched? It's like a metaphor for society in general right now.

Would a scum mac be so bold as to voice his displeasure over the vig kills in the thread?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm going to be unavailable during the early portion of this afternoon. I might have a brief window to visit in a few hours. I endorse a sprityo lynch.

[speedchuck]

I'm going to be unavailable during the early portion of this afternoon. I might have a brief window to visit in a few hours. I endorse a sprityo lynch.

I endorse a Sprityo VIG.

[ColinIsCool]

Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!

Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?

Yeah, because the rezzes have been so available and stuff so far. Let's totally waste a lynch on you and hope that third night's the charm.

What can I say, I’m a selfish guy.