Shockheaded Peter Mafia [ENDGAME]

[colonialbob]

changmymind.jpg

So who is the wolf?

You or sabie. I have to go back and look at how the end of D1 went down but either you hard bussed speedchuck or Luna and sabie were crafty in thread. I do have trouble seeing leetic as mafia - you make good points on him, and he put forth a lot of effort doing ISOs and stuff for a guy who lost his teammates day 1 and day 2. And iirc it started n1 so it's not like it was a big shift after speed.

Have you looked at it again?

Not yet

[Jackofhearts2005]

Does Luna always gth read a teammate bad part 2: Megaman

Teamed with Marmot, DH, Kyle, Nova and LC.

Spoiler: show

Not actually teamed with LC.

First posts about Nova

Wait, why the nova lynch?

OH. Wow, Nova's ISO is pretty empty. It doesn't look to great. I'd rather lynch him than Eloh, who's actually been trying to contribute.

First post about Marmot

@Marmot I ask you to give me a single read on a person. Or more if it pleases you.

And to answer this question, everyone is mafia until I have proven otherwise.

I don't like Marmot.

Posts 7 null to mostly scum reads. One of the scum reads is on a teammate.

Analysis post part 1:
Bullzeye gives his reason for voting Quin. He dislikes Quin's questions, and even after Quin provides a valid response, Bullzeye responds with basically "I'm going to say your response looks fake because I'm so set on voting for you." Not the best look.
DFaraday was definitely around on Sunday, but still hasn't bothered to engage with the thread until today. Could be legit busy, or mafia taking a back-seat role to avoid suspicion.
Dom has done very little other than vote for Eloh. Not a good look.
Dr. Wilgy checked in on day 0, but then forgot the game started until today. Nothing really to go on unless it's a brilliant mafia strategy of "just step away and pretend the game doesn't exist"
Soneji checked in on day 0 and hasn't been back. So I've got nothing.
Alien was actually quite active on day 1, but hasn't been back since. On day 1, Alien left his vote on Mac, even though he previously read "Jack is town, sloon is mafia, mac is slightly suspicious but not as much as sloon, same with eloh" I don't like his back-tracking here.
Marmot called me out for calling him an inactive. He actually has been fairly active, but he still hasn't said all that much.. Maybe it's just his playstyle, but I wouldn't be surprised if Marmot turned out to be scum.

Not done, but posting this for now. I'll finish up later this evening.

Kyle asks her a question and she answers. No interaction with DH. Townreads zero partners.

This supports the idea that Luna would put at least one buddy as scum in gth.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Does Luna always gth scumread a buddy part 3: Retrocawz

Teamed with Colin and Choutas

Answers one question Colin asked. No other interactions with or reads on her team.

Inconclusive. Hard to say where Luna would have put her teammates if she had been forced to provide reads for them.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Does Luna always gth scumread a buddy part 4: GOChampions 2018

Teamed with Jay, Quin, DH

Here's a GTH list since Sloonei asked so nicely. I do not put much stock into making these, and would rather have the next phase to make better decisions on who is bad.

ColinIsCool - town
colonialbob - town
DharmaHelper - scum
Elohcin - scum
Enrique - town
JaggedJimmyJay - scum
juliets - town
Long Con - town
M Plus 7 - scum
MacDougall - town
nijuukyugou - scum
novaselinenever - town
nutella - town
Quin - scum
S~V~S - town
sig - scum
Simon - town
Sloonei - town
speedchuck - town
sprityo - town
Turnip Head - town

Gth reads all of her teammates scum.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What I’m noticing is that Luna often scumreads one or more teammates and tends to avoid talking to and about her teammates. Never townreads them except Speed here.

Some interaction and a scumread on Bob here. Only interaction with Leetic is answering a question he asked her but she gth townread him. Townreads Sabie and this read informs her read on Nova as well.

I think this further points to Luna/Sabie not w/w. Slight mark against Bob since Luna gth reading her Who team town would be quite a departure from her meta and Nova/Audrey/Rey (her other gth scumreads) are/were all town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

All my analysis says it’s probably Bob over Leetic but I hate Leetic voting Sabie and all dead townies are like “Leetic scum, Bob town.”

[mention]colonialbob[/mention] [mention]leetic[/mention]

I have scooby snacks for any wolf that gives up.

[Jackofhearts2005]

We’re kinda at Lylo cause what if we miss and scum doesn’t kill Audrey and she just doesn’t vote?

[Jackofhearts2005]

[VOTE: Colonialbob] aubergine

Cause I believe in myself.

[colonialbob]

Luna did GTH Audrey bad...

Why do you have leetic voting sabie?

[colonialbob]

EBWOP hate

[colonialbob]

I've gone around in circles. We're mechanically clearing Audrey because she's 8 even though a) she fits the Luna scumread theory and b) fits the Sloonei kill fairly well.

Jack, quick recap why I should believe you're town?

[leetic]

I've gone around in circles. We're mechanically clearing Audrey because she's 8 even though a) she fits the Luna scumread theory and b) fits the Sloonei kill fairly well.

Except it was rey, not scum that shot Sloonei, and the other two kills were too optimal to be RNG. Audrey is cleared.

[colonialbob]

I've gone around in circles. We're mechanically clearing Audrey because she's 8 even though a) she fits the Luna scumread theory and b) fits the Sloonei kill fairly well.

Except it was rey, not scum that shot Sloonei, and the other two kills were too optimal to be RNG. Audrey is cleared.

Oh duh.

[colonialbob]

Honestly?

My gut keeps telling me jack is bad. I've been trying to do some digging but I just... don't have the time or the effort right now, unfortunately. So I'm going to go with my gut.

[VOTE: jackofhearts2005] aubergine

[leetic]

As Jack is not in my POE, and Bob is, and I really don't want this to fall to RNG...

[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

[leetic]

[mention]sabie12[/mention] [mention]AudreyTheTattleTail[/mention] Seriously, where are you? C'mon!

[sabie12]

I'm alive. I'm leaning towards voting Bob at the moment.

[sabie12]

Going with Bob because of his leading the suspicion on rey away from speed and his not really caring at this point. Jack has made a good case against him. Unless a more compelling argument is made in a different direction Bob makes the most sense. Audrey has disappeared apparently.

[colonialbob]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] sorry for letting you down

[mention]leetic[/mention] I'll vote sabie if you prefer (still suspect jack but I'm town and it might actually be LyLo so)

[leetic]

@JaggedJimmyJay sorry for letting you down

@leetic I'll vote sabie if you prefer (still suspect jack but I'm town and it might actually be LyLo so)

Fine.

[colonialbob]

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]leetic[/mention]

Move your vote. It’s never Sabie here. The Bob case is solid.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Luna doesn’t just chitchat with her scummates on thread. Literally ever.

[leetic]

Luna doesn’t just chitchat with her scummates on thread. Literally ever.

I guess I'll trust you this once. I still feel that one can easily act differently as scum in one game than in the other game to throw people off, but I guess that you're more familiar with these people than I am. Still not sold on sabie being town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I've gone around in circles. We're mechanically clearing Audrey because she's 8 even though a) she fits the Luna scumread theory and b) fits the Sloonei kill fairly well.

Jack, quick recap why I should believe you're town?

Attempting to put Audrey back in play is yuck. The best you can up with after days being “I know Jack lynched Speed over my objections and voted Luna but like...gut” is yuck.

Honestly. 1

[Jackofhearts2005]

Luna doesn’t just chitchat with her scummates on thread. Literally ever.

I guess I'll trust you this once. I still feel that one can easily act differently as scum in one game than in the other game to throw people off, but I guess that you're more familiar with these people than I am. Still not sold on sabie being town.

Lol I’m normally kinda crap at reading Luna. But I isoed five or so of her wolf games today so I feel like I got a bit of a bead on her tendencies. I wouldn’t lock this meta in for next game but I don’t think she knew she was doing this to intentionally go against her meta.

[colonialbob]

Well done, Jack. Bussing speed was the smart play and you pulled it off well.

[colonialbob]

(also real talk my play here has been crap after like d2, so I can't even really argue the lynch very well. My own fault.)

[Jackofhearts2005]

Well done, Jack. Bussing speed was the smart play and you pulled it off well.

Is that it?

[leetic]

(also real talk my play here has been crap after like d2, so I can't even really argue the lynch very well. My own fault.)

Because throwing in the towel worked so well for Luna and chuck.

[AudreyTheTattletail]

sorry i cant stay i will just vote for colonialbob too

[colonialbob]

(also real talk my play here has been crap after like d2, so I can't even really argue the lynch very well. My own fault.)

Because throwing in the towel worked so well for Luna and chuck.

I'm not trying to convince anybody. I could make the case against Jack but frankly, I just got home after spending almost 11 hours at work and I'd rather eat dinner and relax.

[Epignosis]

Who fidgeted Phil?

Poll ended at Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:25 pmPlease note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

AudreyTheTattleTail
0
No votes


Voters: None

colonialbob
4
31%


Voters: AudreyTheTattletail, sabie12, Jackofhearts2005, leetic

Jackofhearts2005
0
No votes


Voters: None

leetic
0
No votes


Voters: None

sabie12
1
8%


Voters: colonialbob

Fidget Spinners (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
8
62%


Voters: MacDougall, JaggedJimmyJay, novaselinenever, reywaS, Epignosis, nutella, speedchuck, dunya


Total votes: 13

[Epignosis]

Bully Boys

colonialbob has been lynched. He was a Bully Boy.

You are:



The Bully of the Black Boys

Don't tease people for being different
Don't hurt people for being new
But by all means lynch those who are killers
You are vanilla and win if you do

It is now Night 5. You have 24 hours to submit your PMs.

[nutella]

the colonialist was the racist how fitting (jk bob)

[colonialbob]

the colonialist was the racist how fitting (jk bob)

daaaaaaaaaaaang

[leetic]

We were doing so good. How did we get to this point?

I'm gonna have to make a decision between Jack and sabie.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[Jackofhearts2005]

I 99% trust Audrey, 95% trust Sabie and about 80% trust Leetic.

Just put me out of my misery.

[novaselinenever]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lol Nova. Why is your name in lavender?


At this point, I’m most inclined to vote Leet.

POEs (must be 3 1)

Jack - Rey, Bob, Audrey, Leet
Bob - Rey, Jack, Leet
Audrey - Leet....
Nova - Jack, Leet, Sabie, Bob
Leet - Rey, Audrey, Bob/Sabie, Jack
Sabie - Rey, Leet
Rey

Updated

Leet is suspected by 5 (3 living)
Jack is suspected by 2 (1 living)
Audrey is suspected by nobody
Sabie is suspected by 2 (1 living)

I’m bothered by Leet moving from Bob to Sabie yesterday and I’m bothered by him adding me back to the POE. But should I really be?

Scum Leet sees Bob suspecting Jack and he’s mislynchable so he probably doesn’t vote Leet in lylo and he’s very likely to be lynched over Leet, especially if Jack is alive. So if townBob and scumLeet vote Sabie and townJack and townSabie vote Bob, there’s a good shot at lynching Sabie, shoot Audrey, Jack vs Bob ends in a Leetic win. Or Bob is lynched and he can say he tried to save the townie. Therefore it’s really Sabie or Jack. Not as ideal but workable.

Town Leet has a poe of Bob and Sabie. This maybe lynches Bob anyway so from that perspective, it’s a win if it’s Bob and if not, it’s Sabie. But Jack trusts Sabie and Audrey suspects Leet. So regardless of if Jack of Audrey fall, decent chance of mislynch. If Sabie is lynched, that’s a win if it’s Sabie. If it’s Bob, Bob shoots Jack, votes Leetic and if Audrey shows up, Leetic probably gets lynched for the loss. Or maybe Bob shoots Audrey and wifom argues it must be Leet/Jack but it’s probably still a Bob lynch ftw.

So scumLeet likes a Sabie lynch over a Bob one cause Bob/Jack/Leetic is a potential win for wolf Leetic. TownLeet can win with either if he votes the wolf. A Bob mislynch or a Sabie mislynch is probably a loss for townLeetic. So townLeetic’s prerogative is to lynch the wolf yesterday. He does vote his stated top scumread but I don’t see much evaluation of Sabie vs Bob.

Adding Jack in is basically his only option as a wolf. He’s losing the battle to convince me he’s town over Sabie. He needs to either convince Sabie it’s Jack or push back directly on any Jack suspicions. For town Leetic, it comes from believing Bob, who he thought was a wolf giving up at eod and who didn’t put forth a case. I don’t see that townie motivation for that. Why does town Leetic, who just lynched his second suspect, start suspecting someone who isn’t in his poe? Why doesn’t he double down on Sabie?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Pretend I can count.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Bob’s Leetic posts are not helpful at all. Mostly gut and one or two posts he found “weird.” Bob seems to really believe it’s me in the end, which is fine but doesn’t help me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Nova’s Leetic suspicions.

Spoiler: show

Leetic is too high

Tell me about your suspicion of him.

They stem from our butting heads about "defensiveness" and "information". I find his use of them very cheap, not unlike Luna and "opportunistic". I've been reading his posts and enjoying his efforts, however they haven't fully clicked with me. I haven't had that moment where I read a player's posts, understand their thoughts in and I go "that's a civilian right there". I get a certain calculating vibe from them.

I think his EoD posts reflects poorly with Luna's flip. Reads to me like he was guiding Luna through the thread and telling her "give me a reason to not vote you". His angle of Luna voting Jack to tie the vote is pretty weak, it's as if he didn't want to completely ignore the discussion around her and took an easy way in, and easy way out as not to be in the discussion of "who bussed Luna/which vote looks worse?".

I'll think over the second paragraph there. It warrants consideration. I'd also like to know what other non-leetic players think of this and of leetic in general.

Regarding the "information" bit, does Audrey's alignment have bearing for you on that front? He was resisting her lynch after all, and I think she looks good now. Does that mean something to you?

It does. If Audrey were to be bad, my point doesn't stand. The fatalistic tone of his post, and the its context (a mostly joke/half-serious proposal from bob out of the blue) isn't really akin to teammate defense.

In the above post, Nova is talking about these posts.

Luna goes from pure defense and maybe some shade from the sidelines to diving into the thread, declaring peace over, causing a tie on me, and saying you’re bad too.

What did she think was going to happen?

Idk, the threat of getting lynched is pretty motivating. Worst case, I still get lynched.

Can you give me a reason for why you decided to tie the votes?

it was purely an "F this I'm getting lynched" reaction, and I'd rather one of the other two wagons than myself. Sorry if my freak-out bothered anyone. I'm okay with getting lynched.

Hmm, I do like this reaction and find it pretty towny, still a bit too late to change anything. I'll switch my vote to Jack, as I've found him suspicious for a while and he has yet to answer some of my suspicions.

I can kinda see it. Not “Why did you” but “can you give me the reason why” does feel pretty softball and “help me townread you.” Like the warming up to the idea of townLuna has happened before she gave him a reason to.

Of course, it’s a bull reason. She wants me lynched over Speedchuck, who had more votes than me at the time iirc. Unless it was Rey, in which case, she’s somewhere between save herself and spew.

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?

“F this I’m getting lynched and I’d rather one of the other wagons” does not describe her tieing vote post. Why vote for a player with less votes and make a 3 way tie instead of the player with more votes so there isn’t a tie if she wants to lynch either of the other wagons? She also seems more playful than mad at this point.

So yeah, I have problems with Leetic accepting this and using it as an excuse to move his vote, especially since the move looks telegraphed by a preemptive tone change.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Part 2

There’s a big part of me that wants to vote speedchuck for the sake of a terrible pun I’ve been sitting on all game, but I like the balance of the vote distribution right now and I don’t know if I’ll be around for the end of day.

Yeah, I don't like the looks of this post. It reads like "I'll stay in the reg wagon in case it takes off but create a plausible reason for me to switch to the speed wagon in case I need to make myself look good"

Or I just had a joke to make.

That's not the point. The point is, you joined the speed wagon at a very convenient time.

I disagree.

I mean, it was right before the phase end, and right when it was almost guaranteed speedchuck was going to be lynched, thus a low-risk time to bus.

That's actually the highest-risk time, especially in the context of this game. A mafia of 3 that lost a member on D1 and with another one starting the day with heavy heat, will usually distance itself the furthest possible. A necessary sacrifice to have a well hidden wolf inside the town core as their last hope. Or, defend heavily, trying to nip the suspicions in the bud by throwing and throwing some poo in another direction. Speedchuck's D2 play doesn't really scream option B.

I’ll have to go back and see how Leetic and Speed treat each other D1 and if there’s a bus indicating shift.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Nova’s Sabie suspicions

Hi everyone! I'm here. This should be a good group

We got one.

Oh yes, nova. Oh sweet glorious YES. Tell me more about the feelings sabie's post invoked in you. Tell them all over my face.

You're putting me on the spot here.

It stroke me as weirdly succinct on first read, and I compared it to some of her entry posts in previous games. I have no data on baddie Sabie, however her Civilian self usually starts the game with some chatter. She feels comfortable, and appears easy going.

She comes offcold here, or timid I'd say. Right to the point. I don't care much as well for the general compliment, and the addition of an emoji. Probably an attempt at appearing more friendly.

Nova keeps Sabie in his poe for a long time but doesn’t really go past the above. The read seems to be entirely based on the tone of Sabie’s entrance. I disagree with it as well. I thought Sabie seemed uncomfortable in Workd Assunder and scumread her a bit for it. I don’t see this not matching her not actual meta as a problem.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Reywas has nothing helpful to say about either Leetic or Sabie.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sabie pops into Bob’s poe a couple times and he votes her in the end but he only ever gives reasons to townread her. The closest he comes is saying maybe she was crafty in thread.

[mention]colonialbob[/mention]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Prior to this game, Luna (after checking 4 scum games, not bothering with Everyone’s Insane and not checking MOExp and TP:FWWM where I’m unsure of her alignment and I’ve forgotten what those stand for so I didn’t find the threads) had never ever ever townread any member of her team. She almost always (3/4 games) scumread at least one buddy and tended to avoid talking to or about her the teammates she wasn’t scum reading. Her only interactions with two of her buddies in previous games have been to answer questions they asked her.

In this game, she townread Speedchuck. He’s her husband. She often defends him regardless of alignment. I don’t think this is coincidence.

Luna’s only interactions with Leetic are answering questions he asked her. (May have just been the one swan question, actually.) however she gth townreads him.

Her scumreads are: Rey, Nova, Bob and Audrey.



But it can’t can’t be Audrey, right? Nutella kill would be the only random kill but it’s a smart scum kill.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And honestly, idk if Audrey is paying enough attention to know to kill Nova.