[END] The Syndicate's 2013 Game of Champions

#4051

Oh, I still don't get what's up with bea, but I no longer think she was on rumples team.
I'll trust SVS on that assessment.

Linki SVS:

Ah. Well I have no idea if she is astute or just well-informed, but I feel the same way she does.

#4052

S~V~S wrote:
Nevinera wrote:
Mongoose wrote:Yup! I am abstaining from voting for the same people.

If I had to pick someone on that list (and obviously I do in the next 24 hours), I'd say Boomslang? It's Day 11 and I feel he's been chronically UTR. Is he usually a low poster? I get his methodology mixed up with Bullzeye, honestly, which is silly since they are from two different countries.

linki - Nev - I am not following you - a civ-friendly indie? A very astute civ ninja?
I'm not sure what you're asking about.
I was kinda "?" about that as well, I think she means was referring to this post:

Nevinera wrote:
Mongoose wrote:Anyone that I was even mildly suspicious of is now dead. I don't even know where to begin.
I think there might be a good reason for that.
Holy damn.
if not, i am lost, lol~

Yeah! I was wondering what you think the good reason for that is, that's all.

#4053

I'm afraid I didn't bring enough for the whole class.
But I think we are doing really well -
All I meant was that I had a similar list to yours it sounds like.
I was a bit surprised to see all of my top picks for badness die in one day.

#4054

Well, Bea did something that makes me find it exceedingly unlikely had she had bad teammates. Lizzy perhaps might get my point.

So i look forward to seeing what the rest of everyone has to say

especially the people on the "blendy, dunno" list.

I am off to finish my reread of Good Omens, which is probably going to be my next full game. Neil Gaiman FTW

#4055

SVS, why do you trust Nevinera? I was reading back through your posts snd saw that, but I'm wondering if it is something you can discuss?

#4056

Nevinera wrote:I'm afraid I didn't bring enough for the whole class.
But I think we are doing really well -
All I meant was that I had a similar list to yours it sounds like.
I was a bit surprised to see all of my top picks for badness die in one day.

Ahhh perfect, thanks for the elucidation.
SVS, that sounds marvelous.

#4057

timmer wrote:SVS, why do you trust Nevinera? I was reading back through your posts snd saw that, but I'm wondering if it is something you can discuss?

I cannot discuss it. I can say that it has nothing to do with anything that happened in the night, it is totally based on the thread. It might be productive for you to read the page or two (I am set at 40 ppp) before this post:

S~V~S wrote:EBWOP~ Since we got bea back, i think this last cyle was a good thing, it was incredibly illuminating all around. A lot of things clicked into place for me, as well as for some others, i think.

I had not really trusted Nevin before that cycle myself, but the numbers but it into perspective for me.

Now really, good night

#4058

S~V~S wrote:I have very good reason to trust Bea~ I am not going to vote for her. I am also not voting for Nevin, or Lizzy or BWT. That leaves:

Boomslang, DFaraday, Elohcin, Flyin' High, Hedgeowl, Mongoose, Spacedaisy, Timmer.

Those who are better at explaining why Person X is Role Y than I am (not my Mafia forte) tell me who on that list is likely to be good.

no read at all, no read at all, no read at all, uncharacteristically quiet, mild vague pinginess, same, I have a reason to think she isa certain role but could be misreading the situation, civvie.

#4059

Timmer - is the certain role you think bea is -- is it baddie or cindie or indie?

#4060

Well like i said, i will not vote for Bea, I am not sure which role she is, but something she did, I don't see a baddie doing it. Cryptic? Yes. But it is what it is.

#4061

Hmm, okay I see what you are assuming and why you won't vote Nevi. My won't vote list is thus the same as yours, at this point.

No Mongoose that comment was about Spacedaisy, Bea wasnt on svs' list of question marks.

#4062

I ain't votin' honeybea either.

linki - Oh silly me, I don't know how I even did that.I'm too upset about/for Shaun White I guess.

#4063

Hmm, svs, which nights did you say you were redirected?

#4064

Oh, you said it was the night I had the contest, so night 7.

#4065

S~V~S wrote:I have very good reason to trust Bea~ I am not going to vote for her. I am also not voting for Nevin, or Lizzy or BWT. That leaves:

Boomslang, DFaraday, Elohcin, Flyin' High, Hedgeowl, Mongoose, Spacedaisy, Timmer.

Those who are better at explaining why Person X is Role Y than I am (not my Mafia forte) tell me who on that list is likely to be good.

Lizzy is obviously out, and Bea has been a bone of contention for practically the entire game, but why are you discounting Nevin and BWT out of hand? Other than that Nevin agreed with you re: Bea and BWT has made some very impassioned pleas about turning up civ if he gets lynched. You've painted a wide array of targets, so it's interesting to see who you didn't indicate

#4066

^ Is that sarcastic? The orange is throwing me off.

#4067

Mongoose wrote:^ Is that sarcastic? The orange is throwing me off.

I can neither confirm nor deny these rumors, but you might guess that I wouldn't try to put a serious point in sarcastic orange unless I was being coerced by a certain eldritch entity

As far as I can tell, we haven't gotten definitive answers on either Nevin or BWT. Correct me if I've missed something; the multiple thread thing really threw me off.

#4068

Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.

#4069

timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.

Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?

#4070

timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.

Haha, yes, thanks Timmer. That's another reason I wondered if he was being saracastic/joking.

#4071

Boomslang wrote:
timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.
Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?

Just read back the last few pages of the game, I get a sense that Nevin is an ally, that's all.

#4072

@sock, if homestar runner chose two people to play the contest, and one of them was a role that redirects night actions, would both targets redirect, in other words would homestars entire plan be redirected, or would only that persons half be altered?

#4073

Out of the remaining players, I feel the least trusting of Elo, Hedge, and Daisy. I am also wary of FH not being talkative as usual, but she might be busy classifying bugs that resemble this:

Also, I have no read at all on Boomslang.

#4074

timmer wrote: @sock, if homestar runner chose two people to play the contest, and one of them was a role that redirects night actions, would both targets redirect, in other words would homestars entire plan be redirected, or would only that persons half be altered?

This is a very good question and we can add another civ to the list if they're still alive.

I like tonight's news. So are we really dealing with a baddie super group that now includes Cohen? If that's the case, we can rule Juliets out. and

As for Bea, I'm not exactly sure what SVS is hinting at

, but on this occasion I'll trust BDH, and not because of the spouse thing, but because of his role. So this, corroborated with SVS's observations would give us a civ Bea.

Also, I suggest forming a bloc to analyse and then vote for whomever looks... not very good. I guess we should be looking at about 4 (unless I have the numbers wrong again) out of the following:

Boomslang
DF
Elo
Hedgie
Goosey
SD

#4075

Mongoose wrote:
Lizzy wrote:I accidentally a word. But you get the idea. Thanks! ^__^
Oh hey, I forgot to say that I dreamed me and you were in a wasabi-eating contest last night.

Brilliant! Who won?

#4076

Lizzy wrote:
Mongoose wrote:
Lizzy wrote:I accidentally a word. But you get the idea. Thanks! ^__^
Oh hey, I forgot to say that I dreamed me and you were in a wasabi-eating contest last night.
Brilliant! Who won?

I think neither of us did. If you know what I mean.

#4077

Lizzy wrote: Boomslang
DF
Elo
Hedgie
Goosey
SD

I think that's a pretty decent list actually. I notice FH isn't on it though? Do you have good feels about her or just forgot about her?

Of those 6, I have better feels about DF and Goosey than I do the others. I have like NO read on the rest of them and that gives me the hebbie jebbies.

I tried to look at Elo's posts today and I couldn't find much anything of substance to even really comment on or try to get a feel for where she stands this game.

Given that we think Epi was likely the PP, does that change how we look at his early vouch for her on the shield vote? The only games that stick out for me as far as Elo goes, was Grimm and Homstar Runner and she was bad in both of them. I am afraid it's tainting my ability to try to gain something from a lot of not content heavy posts.

#4078

Lizzy wrote: Also, I suggest forming a bloc to analyse and then vote for whomever looks... not very good. I guess we should be looking at about 4 (unless I have the numbers wrong again) out of the following:

Boomslang
DF
Elo
Hedgie
Goosey
SD

I doubt there are that many left, honestly.

And I have no reason to believe bea has that role SVS,
But keep in mind that Cohen would behave pretty much like a civ.
If bea was Cohen, there'd be a lot of folks still need to die for her win.

#4079

Although I guess she couldn't have killed herself in one turn, so never mind.

#4080

MP: if sander voted for himself, would he count as a 'doubter'? Would he still be able to win.

#4081

Boomslang wrote:
timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.
Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?

I apologize for this!! I've been trying to keep the front page updated instantaneously but the past few days I've fallen behind. I'll get to it today, I promise.

timmer wrote: @sock, if homestar runner chose two people to play the contest, and one of them was a role that redirects night actions, would both targets redirect, in other words would homestars entire plan be redirected, or would only that persons half be altered?

Just the person who redirects. The other who does not would still be affected.

Nevinera wrote:MP: if sander voted for himself, would he count as a 'doubter'? Would he still be able to win.

He would not be able to win in that scenario, since then he would have doubted himself.

Therefore, if Cohen votes himself, he throws the game away.

#4082

I find that net resting and useful to know :-)

#4083

Ebwop: "interesting"

#4084

Boomslang wrote:
timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.
Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?

No. You have to hit me over the head with a brick for me to notice role subtleties~ and I saw it. Read back.

And re my targets, the first time, night one, both of my original targets have since died, and neither came up as a civ. The second they are both alive, one I trust implicitly. The other is on my "?" list, but MP seems to be saying that only one would redirect, so that point is moot.

@Lizzy~I could go with your list. And something good happened for me a while ago, something caused by Bea at that time. It happened again last night

I will be back in tons of time for the poll (9:54 PM my time) and will keep up with the thread during the day (just won't post much at work on phone).

#4085

Bea voted for herself on day 5,
nobody else living has done so.

I find it relevant because people can now clear themselves of being cohen by self-voting -
we don't have to lynch people to test that theory.

Not that we necessarily have to kill cohen. Here's a list of who living has ever been voted for by who else:

Bea has been voted by: Bea, BWT, Boom, FH, Nev, SD, Timmer
BWT has been voted by: Bea, DF, Elo, Hedge, Lizzy, Timmer
Elo has been voted by: Nev
Hedge has been voted by: SD
Lizzy has been voted by Bea, BWT, Boom, Elo, Hedge

Nobody alive has ever voted for: SVS, Boom, DF, FH, Mongoose, Nev, SD, Timmer

(Correct me if any of those statements are wrong - reading the polls thread is difficult).
Fortunately, I don't believe Bea, BWT, or Lizzy are Cohen, and they received by far the most votes.

This doesn't much help us figure out who is cohen, but it should start helping once we've eliminated the baddies, if we still haven't won.
For the time being, I'd recommend *not* voting for someone until the thread has come to some consensus -
we have decent odds still that we might not have to kill cohen.

that also means we should have the relevant discussions asap, instead of waiting until vote-time.

I'm afraid I have nothing to work with on finding the baddie though,
and I really hate voting on feelings.

linki svs: Ah, I think I see. That does help.

#4086

ebwop: *baddies* I mean.

#4087

Bea - I trust FH because someone I trust trusts her.

SVS - I know.

Nev - Woohoo! We could have a discussion about Cohen, but getting Creeper is a priority right now. If he randomly explodes, he takes at least one person with him. I wonder if Fetus is already dead or if not, at least lynchable.

#4088

Agree with Lizzy re Creeper. With the teams merging it seems like a good strategy to wipe out playerstowards the end.

As for the list SVS asked about Timmer is the only one I trust. The others I have no great read on, but really want to look back at Mongoose if I get the time.

#4089

• Creeper - [Minecraft] – A creepy green creature. Each night he creeps up on a player and blocks his ability for the night. (Secrets) If Big Daddy (Bouncer) dies, Creeper stops blocking every night, instead blocking every odd night, and tries to kill a player every even night. However, it has only a 60% success rate of killing its target. Additionally, once in the game at any time, Creeper may explode, killing himself, as well as having a 25% chance of killing four other players. He may not select which players, however, as they will be each of the two players alphabetically above and below him among those currently alive on the player list.

I believe this description means that creeper may at any time *choose* to explode, and I don't think he would at this point, since it would kill him.

#4090

Nevinera wrote:
• Creeper - [Minecraft] – A creepy green creature. Each night he creeps up on a player and blocks his ability for the night. (Secrets) If Big Daddy (Bouncer) dies, Creeper stops blocking every night, instead blocking every odd night, and tries to kill a player every even night. However, it has only a 60% success rate of killing its target. Additionally, once in the game at any time, Creeper may explode, killing himself, as well as having a 25% chance of killing four other players. He may not select which players, however, as they will be each of the two players alphabetically above and below him among those currently alive on the player list.
I believe this description means that creeper may at any time *choose* to explode, and I don't think he would at this point, since it would kill him.

Yes,agreed i think it reads a choice. Seeing that his chance is only 25% makes me less concerned. If they were 4 kills with higher success, it would a great way to take more control of lynches towards the end. The alphabet thing is interesting. Would hope teamies aren't all B for Baddie for example.

#4091

Lizzy wrote:Bea - I trust FH because someone I trust trusts her.
SVS - I know.
Nev - Woohoo! We could have a discussion about Cohen, but getting Creeper is a priority right now. If he randomly explodes, he takes at least one person with him. I wonder if Fetus is already dead or if not, at least lynchable.

Ah, just saw you said randomly, so I understand Nev's point now. It's not random I think too.

#4092

Sorry that people think I've been uncharacteristically quiet. I think I've been about normal for myself (this notion that I'm a talkative player makes me laugh because I am rarely a top poster in games).

I'll do a list too!

bea - trust, I think she's a civvie

BWT - trust, civvie

Boomslang - have zero read on which at this point in the game is unsettling

DFaraday - chuckled when he posted that I've been quiet, I don't have any read on DF at the moment

Elohcin - I honestly keep forgetting she's playing she's been that under the radar, and since I think Epignosis was bad, I don't know if I can trust his civvie read of Elohcin as being true or not

Hedgeowl - I've been feeling good about her, but it's totally a gut thing

Lizzy - trust, civvie

Mongoose - had some minor pings, but it seems like some people I trust, trust her, so I'm willing to do the same

Nevinera - trust, I have outlined the reasons for that trust before and nothing has happened to change my mind

Spacedaisy - I have felt pings about SD

S~V~S - trust, civvie

Timmer - trust, I think he's a civvie

I am going to read back on Boomslang, DF, Elohcin, Hedgeowl, Mongoose, and Spacedaisy and see if I can formulate stronger opinions one way or another.

#4093

Oh, I wanted to mention, I live in the Southern US and am about to get slammed with this winter storm. Apparently there's a pretty good chance we'll lose power. *lame* I assume I'll still be able to get online through my phone if that does happen, but if I vanish from the site for a day or so, that is the reason why. But I hope we don't lost power because I don't want to be cold!

#4094

Hedgeowl wrote:
Lizzy wrote:Bea - I trust FH because someone I trust trusts her.
SVS - I know.
Nev - Woohoo! We could have a discussion about Cohen, but getting Creeper is a priority right now. If he randomly explodes, he takes at least one person with him. I wonder if Fetus is already dead or if not, at least lynchable.
Ah, just saw you said randomly, so I understand Nev's point now. It's not random I think too.

I meant 'randomly' for us - more like unexpectedly. I need to work on my phrasing.

But anyway, the idea still stands. He should be our main target because we know for sure he's still alive... and Moriarty because he gets to kill next (if alive).

#4095

Certainly, baddies should come first!
I just don't have anything helpful to offer on that hunt at the moment,
so I threw what I could dig up that might be relevant for cohen up.

#4096

Uhm... no reveal last night. So could Moriarty be dead?

#4097

I think we can start with something. It probably won't work, but I don't have any better ideas.

Hedgie, since you're here, did you receive any offer from Mr Butler?

#4098

S~V~S wrote:
Boomslang wrote:
timmer wrote:Boomslang, the Nevin thing is a bit subtle, but the host has essentially proven bwt is Meat Boy. Saying bwt isn't cleared just means you aren't paying attention.
Gah, I knew that. Excuse me for getting lost in two threads and exchanging players and the host not updating the player list with the revealed info, like he did for when Lizzy got brought back as Mycroft. Ok, so I was wrong there. The Nevin thing is "subtle." Care to enlighten me?
No. You have to hit me over the head with a brick for me to notice role subtleties~ and I saw it. Read back.

And re my targets, the first time, night one, both of my original targets have since died, and neither came up as a civ. The second they are both alive, one I trust implicitly. The other is on my "?" list, but MP seems to be saying that only one would redirect, so that point is moot.

@Lizzy~I could go with your list. And something good happened for me a while ago, something caused by Bea at that time. It happened again last night

I will be back in tons of time for the poll (9:54 PM my time) and will keep up with the thread during the day (just won't post much at work on phone).

I'm sorry, but I still don't see anything obvious. I see Nev doing decent analysis, getting insanified, and then "yes-manning" the discussion. I also think it's very interesting how Timmer fell into line with you today after you threw the merest hint of a suspicion at him a couple days ago. Agreeing with a confirmed civ

is a smart and blendy move.

#4099

We actually have a bit of a dilemma with respect to Cohen - it's in his interest to have everyone know who he is at this point,
unless he's been voted for by at least one other player. Which would mean Elo or Hedge.
But since that would get him a free pass, it's *also* the interests of some baddie to have everyone *think* they are cohen.
Which means that carefully outing himself without breaking any rules would necessarily be a good move,
since that also ups the odds we'll think he's a baddie :-(

Another data contribution ------

Living People who have survived an NK so far (ever):

Nev N1
Bea survived two kills on N4
BWT survived two kills in N6 (without dying and rezzing)
Timmer N7
SVS N7

The timmer kill was simultaneous with DH, one of whom must have been John, and the odds are against DH on that one.
So while I can't say I completely trust Timmer, he's got fantastic odds of being civ.
I believe I understand why the rest of those kills were avoided - do any of the timings confuse SVS or Bea?

Here are the deadies who have (ever) survived an NK:

DH survived an incineration N7
Devin survives a manipulators kill N9

I don't have an explanation for either of those figured out -
does anyone else have a strong suspicion of how either of these kills were avoided?
No need to supply what the suspicion is, of course.

linki boom:

No worries. I've tried to be fairly careful about the rules, so if anyone knows who I am,
it'd be from studying my behavior over time, and not because I'm dropping direct hints left and right.
What is "yes-manning", by the way?

#4100

Nevinera wrote: Which means that carefully outing himself without breaking any rules would *not* necessarily be a good move,

(ebwoq)

Who deserves to win?