[END] Hope Keeps On Going - Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc Mafia

[TonyStarkPrime]

Ha HA!

I still got the ability to use seemingly harmless powers to great effect.

I haven’t been this happy with a mafia play since I used a notepads to convince someone he had joined my nonexistent cult.

In my defense that stuff only worked because sprityo was confusing as fuck and made me think I was still talking to TSP, not to a new person. So that reply of mine was a continuation of my convo with TSP.

Very reasonable

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ha HA!

I still got the ability to use seemingly harmless powers to great effect.

I haven’t been this happy with a mafia play since I used a notepads to convince someone he had joined my nonexistent cult.

In my defense that stuff only worked because sprityo was confusing as fuck and made me think I was still talking to TSP, not to a new person. So that reply of mine was a continuation of my convo with TSP.

Shhhhhh. You’re ruining it.

[Rej]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

[Long Con]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

[sprityo]

Please be sure to submit your night actions everyone!!!

[Rej]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

[Okosan]

Cooooo! (That mass roleblock better be submitting their action. And the role block better be Monokuma)

[Okosan]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Cooooooooo! (Well in the world that she's the first/only recruit it doesn't make her any more town no. Because it's not like scum would be directing the lynch off of her. In the world in which there's two mafia it's iffier, and Okosan thinks that's the world we're in? Because otherwise there shouldn't have been a kill yesterday right?)

[Okosan]

COOO! (Sorry Okosan guesses he means it's not like scum would be directing the lynch to her or anything. It would all be town)

[Okosan]

COO! COO! (It does probably change the tells we're looking for though)

[Okosan]

Cooooo! (That mass roleblock better be submitting their action. And the role block better be Monokuma)

COOO! (Oh Okosan just thought of a great way we probably should've tried confirming the mass role block with the tie breaker who gets to see the last person who submits their night action. Because if the roleblock goes off then the role is very unlikely scum. And The tie breaker is probably not able to be converted due to him being the Ultimate Moral Compass)

[Long Con]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Certainly not good enough odds to confirm the Good Lady Sloonei's towniness. "Confirmed" is a stronger word than that. If a player is possibly still bad, even very unlikely, it's not confirmed.

[Rej]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Certainly not good enough odds to confirm the Good Lady Sloonei's towniness. "Confirmed" is a stronger word than that. If a player is possibly still bad, even very unlikely, it's not confirmed.

true, my wording was off there, so I still lean to town then

[Rej]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Cooooooooo! (Well in the world that she's the first/only recruit it doesn't make her any more town no. Because it's not like scum would be directing the lynch off of her. In the world in which there's two mafia it's iffier, and Okosan thinks that's the world we're in? Because otherwise there shouldn't have been a kill yesterday right?)

If Monokuma thinks ahead then we can count for 3 maf already one is about to be recruited
But lynching one of the own allies can be a good thing if they can win with Monokuma... hmm

[sprityo]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

He*

[Jackofhearts2005]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Assuming an equal chance of all players being counterwagon (with only 2 non townies) and all players being recruited, the odds of Sloonei being the recruit are the same as anyone else’s.

[Sloonei]

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Cooooooooo! (Well in the world that she's the first/only recruit it doesn't make her any more town no. Because it's not like scum would be directing the lynch off of her. In the world in which there's two mafia it's iffier, and Okosan thinks that's the world we're in? Because otherwise there shouldn't have been a kill yesterday right?)

If Monokuma thinks ahead then we can count for 3 maf already one is about to be recruited
But lynching one of the own allies can be a good thing if they can win with Monokuma... hmm

Well if the Roleblock goes off successfully we can assume that there will still be two.
Also if i am correct i was thinking this over night it is possible for Monokuma to "Miss" a recruit if he targets a dead character.
that is assuming of course that he doesn't know dead peoples characters.

[Trustworthy Liberal]

Does it make Sloonei confirmed towny?

How?

because she was DDL's counterwagon, how big are the odds first recruit and Monokuma got both tied?

Assuming an equal chance of all players being counterwagon (with only 2 non townies) and all players being recruited, the odds of Sloonei being the recruit are the same as anyone else’s.

Also this should be kept in mind for the rest of the game since everyone has the additional win condition of LIVE.
Also mafia and Monokuma don't know each other so assuming they would save each other is completely false.

[Long Con]

Yeah but

Monokuma can have PM communication with anyone. Including his recruits. In what world does Monokuma still not know his recruits' identities? And further, discuss kill targets?

[Rej]

I am so bad recently, I am sorry to Sloonei, he doesn't deserve this treatment from me

[Jackofhearts2005]

Yeah but

Monokuma can have PM communication with anyone. Including his recruits. In what world does Monokuma still not know his recruits' identities? And further, discuss kill targets?

I think Monokuma can recruit roles and message players.

He’d only be able to talk to his recruits if they up and message him, claiming to have been recruited. While I agree the soupkill is probably purely an anticlaim mechanic and Monokuma doesn’t want to kill the blackened, it’s still a risky thing for a recruit to do since Monokuma’s wincon is unknown.

Of course, DDL could ask his recruits to contact him via soapbox and now the main thread if that’s what he wanted. I guess we’ll see.

[tedxtr]

It goes directly with non-converted peeps' wincon to find the last scum. Be town. Hunt.

Stop the mechanical talk. Nothing is clear.

Consider tomorrow Day 1 of a normal mafia game. We have a scum to catch, and he has to blend in.

If you set the bar high by hunting, you'll force him to post relevant shit, and thus, chances of catching him are higher.

Lynching the bear is 30% of winning the game imo, if not less. We don't know if he stops converting.

Junko should just keep on roleblocking Monokuma. It's not worth switching off to look for scum. It's more important to prioritize non-conversions over finding a single scum at night.

[tedxtr]

The current situation fosters a town hunting environment.

We have derp clears, people might have mechanical clears, pressure the scum by fighting the town reads. He has to stay outside the PoE. Us clearing people will pressure him.

Don't scum hunt tomorrow, town hunt instead. see who hunted.

[tedxtr]

Cooo? (Furthurmore Ted if Okosan was scum why wouldn't he just find a reason to jump on DDL? Yes it's so much better to go against the grain of what, in this scenario, is almost entirely town)

Okosan, what prompted this read on DDL? Why was he obvious town at the time you posted this?

[tedxtr]

Coo? (Oh wait fair enough the last point Okodan made doesnt count. He thought way more people wanted DDL than 3)

Still, why do 3 people on a wagon reveal that someone's town? With 7 hours left til EoD? In a 1 bear, potentially one mafia setup?

Please answer this when you have time Okosan.

[sig]

Also quick pitch what if there isn't any mafia players at all and the only non town person is Bearo

Lol read the setup, Sig.

I mean can it not lie?

[sig]

And if we think there are two mafia arms leta ignore Bearo and try to find them.

[tedxtr]

Cooooooo? (Lol as Okosan said he retracted the not voting for DDL part. Okosan thought he had la bunch of votes)

you are still voting for me

Sloonei, why'd you go out of your way to ask Okosan to move his vote off you here? You haven't done so with anyone else. Were you town reading him at the time you've posted this?

[Sloonei]

Cooooooo? (Lol as Okosan said he retracted the not voting for DDL part. Okosan thought he had la bunch of votes)

you are still voting for me

Sloonei, why'd you go out of your way to ask Okosan to move his vote off you here? You haven't done so with anyone else. Were you town reading him at the time you've posted this?

I am town reading okosan, but that’s not why I confronted him directly here. This is the first game that okosan and I have ever played together. My impression of his vote for me was that it came from a suspicion that would not exist if he was more familiar with me as a player. I was trying to suggest he move his vote because of that.

Also at the time the only other person voting for me was Tony. I also responded to his vote, but it did not come with any game-relevant suspicion.

[sig]

Also mafia could've easily votes for ddl assuming they even knew he was Bearo.

It's a non issue at this point I'd say

[tedxtr]

Note : This will be my town casing of people and my personal PoE. Also, some of you might notice a pattern where I read people based on their posting on day 2. I have intended that, as I see Day 0 and Day 1 a waste to read people. All this analysis was made under the presumption that there was no real mafia on day 0 and day 1 and so, it would be a waste to sort there.


Long Con :

Spoiler: show

Apart from all the derp clears, his #476 is something that I really like. It's an angle of pushing that I find townie, because it stems from paranoia, which is a sign of not knowing sloonei's alignment, therefore, not TMI towards Sloonei being town. I think it would be odd for a mafia to just choose this pushing angle, I think they'd focus on other stuff. Also, in context, this way of pushing was really going with the thread, as it was stale and there wasn't too much to go based off of, so it doesn't really read to me as if he's really trying to stand out and look townie. He's more concerned over Sloonei being a potential conversion and a threat to town than he is about himself and how he's going to look after that.

===================

Trustworthy Liberal :

Spoiler: show

Ok, I know this read is going to not have great stocks or anything, but just based on how TL thinks and is posting in this game, I want to lean town. Last time I played with him as scum, his tone was all weird, and he essentially busy posted his way until EoD, at which point I decided to switch on him and lynch him, because I had a solid town core and he wasn't really spicy or anything. Mental note for me, I'm fine clearing TL here, but if I ever would need to re-assess something, this would probably be one of those places. Shouldn't be an issue, if I see something scummy about him, I'll probably change my mind on him regardless. He just seems town here. I don't think I need to stress this, I am of the opinion that other people town read him as well.

===================

Rej :

Spoiler: show

I feel like if Rej is a mafia, he slipped the fact that there was already a converted fellow to begin with (post #512 - "his fellas")

I like how Rej is switching between trying to genuine scum hunt and mechanical talk, it reads like he's taking his time solving the puzzle and trying to fit the pieces at his own pace, if that makes sense. I feel like Rej would probably be self-pressured into over-sharing his thoughts, but he's rather chill here.

====================

TSP :

Spoiler: show

Town lean, mainly because of the PM thing.

===========

Jackofhearts :

Spoiler: show

Same. He would also never have pushed the bear there.

=========================

Turnip Head :

Spoiler: show

I like his progression on Okosan. It started off with Turnip Head randomly acknowledging the fact that Okosan went really quiet all of a sudden, which was weird given his posting on the previous days. He kind of brushed it off and then when he saw my case, he also pushed the idea of a possible Okosan scum world. This gives me a feeling that, he felt that his gut feeling was finally backed by a case justifying that gut feeling, and therefore validating it. I feel like scum!TH would've waited a lot more and not post right after I go at Okosan there. This might be a bit biased read, it's combined with how relaxed TH has been and I'll take Jack's roleplaying read off TH as legit, even though I don't really wanna put much stock in, but I could see it being a thing.

=======================


p-edit (i believe you call it linki here?) - I see, that's reasonable. It adds up with your thought that he's town, I'd take it you would suspect if new people advocated against your lynch here. However, his vote was placed purely based on how he would think Monokuma would handle EoD, it didn't have to do anything with your play style there. Curious. What made you feel like he voted you based on him not knowing you?

[Okosan]

Cooo? (Furthurmore Ted if Okosan was scum why wouldn't he just find a reason to jump on DDL? Yes it's so much better to go against the grain of what, in this scenario, is almost entirely town)

Okosan, what prompted this read on DDL? Why was he obvious town at the time you posted this?

Coooooo! (Okosan wasn't saying DDL was town there. He was saying in the scenario that Okosan was scum why wouldn't Okosan just find a reason to jump on DDL considering in that scenario almost everyone else in the game is town. Which makes more sense when you read a later(?) post saying that Okosan thought way more people were on DDL for some reason)

COOO! (Basically he's saying that there's no real reason for Okosan to make waves in a scenario in which more people were voting for DDL if Okosan was scum. If that makes sense)

[Okosan]

COO! (Obviously with only a few votes the whole argument makes a lot less sense)

[tedxtr]

I see.

Here’s what’s up. I am still stuck on that mentality thing and don’t get why you’d have a sudden change of opinion that’s seemingly unwarranted, but I’ll admit I’m not really that confident in it either.

I have a 1 scum read in between you and Sloonei, granted more because you’re both likely to flip scum at a more than rand chance, which means I have you as nulls that didn’t really do anything townie, so that’s why I feel fine with lynching you.

Now, that’s lazy thinking. So what i’d really appreciate is if you’d try and sort Sloonei for me by asking questions and vice versa, you could start from how you are feeling about Sloonei holistically and then maybe start the questioning process from his reasoning for town reading you and whether you think it’s town thought process or not.

[Okosan]

Coooooo! (Okosan's also unsure why you think it's really that drastic of a progression of thoughts. Let's walk through what Okosan would've tried to do as Monokuma day 1. And obviously maybe you won't agree with it or whatever, but here was his thoughts at least.)

COO! (The most important thing to do as Monokuma is to blend in assuming Junko can stop him from making recruits or of there's some negative to him being outed. The best way to do that, in Okosan's mind, is to try to be on a big wagon if at all possible. There's a couple of ways in which you can do that easily that Okosan mentioned Day 1, and was trying to look for on Day 1. That being 1) people trying to start wagons unnecessarily to hopefully get something traction, and 2) being too eager to jump in on anything that looks like it might have some promise to it. Now obviously a large wagon never really came into existence. If that's the case Okosan would heavily consider jumping to plan B)

Cooooo? (Plan B here is to essentially find a way to waste your vote. The reason you would want this is because if you're included in two wagons that are fairly close to each other there's a high likelihood, as we saw here, that you can get outed for it. Meanwhile if you stay out of the wagons town is going to most likely waste at least a day if not more trying to figure out why the vote went one way or the other when it really doesn't matter. The best way to do this is to either vote for a third, lesser wagon, or to vote for someone random in general. This is what Okosan thought he say Sloonei trying to do. Sloonei was on the Epi wagon until towards the end of the day when they were both extremely close. Then, like Okosan would want to do as Monokuma, Sloonei switched off on to someone completely random)

Coooooooooo! (Hence why Okosan started looking hard at Sloonei Day 2. Had we lynched Sloonei and he flipped town Okosan would've double checked to see if anyone else did it less obviously, and if they hadn't would have gone back to his original way of thinking)

[tedxtr]

Ok, we flipped the bear. I want you to sort Sloonei for me and decide whether or not he’s scum. Meaning converted mafia. Meaning, having TMI.

How do you feel about his reasoning for town reading you being revolved around you misconstruing his events for a scum agenda because you didn’t know his usual play style?
Did you feel like your posts expressed that?

[Sloonei]

Ok, we flipped the bear. I want you to sort Sloonei for me and decide whether or not he’s scum. Meaning converted mafia. Meaning, having TMI.

How do you feel about his reasoning for town reading you being revolved around you misconstruing his events for a scum agenda because you didn’t know his usual play style?[/u]
Did you feel like your posts expressed that?

This is not what I said.

[Sloonei]

Pretend I formatted that right

[tedxtr]

What did you mean?

[Okosan]

COO! COO! (Yeah Okosan was reading back because he didn't remember that being the reasoning Sloonei was town reading Okosan. Plus Ted you seem to want to gloss over Okosan's explanation of his thoughts for some reason, but you literally said you were hung up on Okosan's reasoning so Okosan explained it)

[Okosan]

Cooooo! Cooo! (Honestly Okosan will probably wait until Day to really sit down and re-evaluate everyone. Make some new notes and everything because honestly Okosan thinks his first go around didn't get as much info as he might've wanted)

[Sloonei]

What did you mean?

Okosan was a town read without the read on me. I felt like he was flapping his wings in the right direction yesterday, particularly in regards to the case you were pushing against him: all the points you raised against Okosan yesterday were points that I considered to be in his favor.

I also did not suggest that Okosan misconstrued anything about me. I agreed with his theory about how the mean bear would have approached Day 1. But his case against me via that theory would have required me to make a careless mistake that I’d never in a million years make. To be clear, I’m saying that I’m brilliant and that shit’s beneath me.

[Okosan]

What did you mean?

Okosan was a town read without the read on me. I felt like he was flapping his wings in the right direction yesterday, particularly in regards to the case you were pushing against him: all the points you raised against Okosan yesterday were points that I considered to be in his favor.

I also did not suggest that Okosan misconstrued anything about me. I agreed with his theory about how the mean bear would have approached Day 1. But his case against me via that theory would have required me to make a careless mistake that I’d never in a million years make. To be clear, I’m saying that I’m brilliant and that shit’s beneath me.

COOO! (Could you please not Town read Okosan until the day starts thanks. He'd rather looks suspicious so mafia don't kill him if the mass roleblock is dead )

[Sloonei]

Okosan is confirmed scum. Get that pigeon, lynch that pigeon.

[tedxtr]

COO! COO! (Yeah Okosan was reading back because he didn't remember that being the reasoning Sloonei was town reading Okosan. Plus Ted you seem to want to gloss over Okosan's explanation of his thoughts for some reason, but you literally said you were hung up on Okosan's reasoning so Okosan explained it)

No, I’m glossing over your explanation for the wagonomics thing that I’ve honestly put the lock on.

I have requested your thoughts specifically on sloonei and not the wagons. So yes, I glossed over your explanation of the wagons, because that was not what I wanted / requested from you.

[Okosan]

I see.

Here’s what’s up. I am still stuck on that mentality thing and don’t get why you’d have a sudden change of opinion that’s seemingly unwarranted, but I’ll admit I’m not really that confident in it either.

I have a 1 scum read in between you and Sloonei, granted more because you’re both likely to flip scum at a more than rand chance, which means I have you as nulls that didn’t really do anything townie, so that’s why I feel fine with lynching you.

Now, that’s lazy thinking. So what i’d really appreciate is if you’d try and sort Sloonei for me by asking questions and vice versa, you could start from how you are feeling about Sloonei holistically and then maybe start the questioning process from his reasoning for town reading you and whether you think it’s town thought process or not.

[tedxtr]

I literally just want you two to figure each other out by asking questions.

As far as I see it, Sloonei has no reason to town read you and neither do you to town read Sloonei.

It was proven that you were wrong on how Monokuma would handle it, and that was Sloonei’s reason for reading you town. Which proved to be a flop. So he has no reason for reading you town.

You were pushing him yesterday and we flipped monokuma. Your theory on how he could be monokuma is invalid. Don’t you wanna still figure him out?

[tedxtr]

Yeah, where’s that asking for your thoughts on it? I just said i was stuck on it. My point was “that thing was scummy, but here, I’ll give you a chance at proving yourself by doing this instead so I don’t have a bias when reading you”

[Sloonei]

I literally just want you two to figure each other out by asking questions.

As far as I see it, Sloonei has no reason to town read you and neither do you to town read Sloonei.

It was proven that you were wrong on how Monokuma would handle it, and that was Sloonei’s reason for reading you town. Which proved to be a flop. So he has no reason for reading you town.

You were pushing him yesterday and we flipped monokuma. Your theory on how he could be monokuma is invalid. Don’t you wanna still figure him out?

Okosan being wrong does nothing to deter my town read. I understood his point of view and thought it reflected a genuine thought process. I don’t care whether or not he was right.