Space Invaders [END]

[TonyStarkPrime]

am I very wrong I think night 1 aliens have 1 kp

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm right.

[TonyStarkPrime]

There, an error in your math. Found it. Give me a cookie. But that's on the assumption that this is day 0->day1 laser -> night 1 which I guess needs mod confirmation

[protocultures]

So if day 0 is a no action intro day, and we move directly into Day 1 laser and night 1, then I move Tony slightly more into town due to aliens only have 1 night KP.

Not sure what to make of math >rand wolf. If I was wolf, I could math to push an anti town agenda. Dont know what, but pretty sure i could find some angle. Let me know if you find an anti town angle in my math.

reading the math for the town core read.. lets see what you find.

re IOA, I post a lot of stuff for myself to remember/summarise without having to re-read everything in future. I can just look at my own posts to summarise what happened before my post.

is the info summarised scummier than "game game game"?

Assuming we start on 1 alient night KP, I am a fan of mixing saves. Some public, some private.

Say 4 public nominated saves. This means we dont waste bunker saves on them by stacking in private.

This reduces the alien KP pool, and increases the liklihood of successful save by our random bunkers. While this will not CONFIRM info, this will over a period of days give us an idea of who was in POE for alien kills, who was potentially saved and how many times (which gives us info on who is claiming saves), and who was in the alien night kill POE how many times, and how many times they survived with no bunker saves on them.

[protocultures]

[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

I gave 2 alternative plans for the first night assuming either 1 or 2 night KP for aliens.

I wondered whether you guys do a Day 0 and a Night 0 for example.

I dont see you found an error, and no town credit will be given until you explain it in a way I understand.

You still slightly in my town circle now anyway since you assumed 1 night KP the first night with your plan.

QUESTION: Do we get flips on town laser deaths? If yes, we can keep using math to reduce wasting bunker saves on Nutella.

If not, I am by far too lazy/dumb to work out math for future days but think its possible assuming random town laser killings.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

is the info summarised scummier than "game game game"?

Yes.

[protocultures]

[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention]

fine.

game game game

does that make me LESS scummy?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

fine.

game game game

does that make me LESS scummy?

Sorry no, it’s derivative now

[MacDougall]

Spoiler: show

Is there a spec chat?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Mac isn’t in this game??

What a fucking rip off I want my money back

[Dragon D. Luffy]

ISO links are up in the first post.

[dunya]

Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

It's a she. She made a post and it does not give me any indication of game solving. Plus, it seems overextended in trying to look nice and unscummy. Your entrance post was just as uninformative, but it was unbiased. I null read u for that, but count -1 ok carot till I see more.

Do you expect players to come right off the bat with game solving in their entry post?

No, but Carot was online until i went to bed. I expect some reactions and developments, especially as I prodded her. I didnt get that, so she can keep LC and Rej company in my list for now

Hmm, alright. Dunya is good y'all. Lock that read.

this reads as very insincere to me. why did my response move you? in fact, i'm willing to move drago into my scum pile because of it and move carot higher.

first of all, the language of his first post "Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?"

~ from what I recall: implies he wants us to think he isn't paying too much attention, yet he knows Carot has made literally one post.
~ he(or she)?: Carot has her preferred pronouns in her profile. indeed, we have discussed her several times so i feel like someone who knows Carot has one post, would have been able to know Carot is a she if he wanted to.

the second one is a little distancy, if i wanted to tinfoil. indeed, the entire question could be scum inquiry on behalf of his teammate. but i don't wanna tinfoil, i wanna say dragomir is bad and tried to pocket me after seeing i have a strong presence itt. that makes his inquiry a little left field for me. let's switch Carot and Drago's positions in my scumpile.

let's give dizzy a town read, because GAME GAME! and because i'm generous.

here's where i'm at:

town, from towniest to least towny:
nutella - Laser Gun Operator
tutuu
Epignosis
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
TonyStarkPrime
protocultures
Alison
Dyslexicon

undecided:
bimbo
Soneji
Carotenoid

alien:
Dragomir
Rej
Long Con

[dunya]

protocultures, i love his strong entry into the game. his thoughts seem organic and say them as they come. i dig that method. i am a fan. keep up the developments in your reads and we can be friends.

we also seem to agree about LC which i like.

also i apologize if anything we say is based off meta to the newbies. if that's the case, i'll try to add context to my post.

[dunya]

also anyone who didn't vote star wars is lying tbh.

[Epignosis]

Vote Epignosis

(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)

Making a list of who protects who only gives more information to the mafia about who is unprotected. And mafia wins the game immediately if they kill nutella, so it is completely useless to know who failed to protect her the day after we lose the game. The strategy you are proposing would make it trivially easy for the mafia to win just by attacking the operator on the night where a mafia member is scheduled to protect her. And a public list of who protects who would make it easier for the mafia to know who they can safely kill since there isn't enough heals to protect everyone at once.

It is correct for town to keep when and who they are using their protect on secret so mafia doesn't know who is being protected, if the operator is shielded, and how many protects the town has left.

I lose when nutella dies. Protecting her is my only objective. The aliens know that as well as I. It's no big secret. I am only making it plain that I am a bunker and I am protecting her so that the other bunkers are free to protect other bunkers and provide us with more chances to "give em hell" as a starship trooper might say.

If you don't believe that I am a bunker, fine.

The mindset that you are attacking me with here is not that though. It isn't, "Epi is an alien and wants us to think he's protecting nutella when in reality he just wants to trick us so he can shoot her." The mindset you are attacking me with here is "This is a dumb plan."

[Epignosis]

also anyone who didn't vote star wars is lying tbh.

I want to make it abundantly clear that I mean the first three Star Wars films and the first Star Wars films only.

[Epignosis]

Then if youre town you put yourself in a position to embarass yourself post game if your plans end up being worse than randomness, so good luck

You have revealed my secret ability.

[dunya]

Vote Epignosis

(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)

Making a list of who protects who only gives more information to the mafia about who is unprotected. And mafia wins the game immediately if they kill nutella, so it is completely useless to know who failed to protect her the day after we lose the game. The strategy you are proposing would make it trivially easy for the mafia to win just by attacking the operator on the night where a mafia member is scheduled to protect her. And a public list of who protects who would make it easier for the mafia to know who they can safely kill since there isn't enough heals to protect everyone at once.

It is correct for town to keep when and who they are using their protect on secret so mafia doesn't know who is being protected, if the operator is shielded, and how many protects the town has left.

I lose when nutella dies. Protecting her is my only objective. The aliens know that as well as I. It's no big secret. I am only making it plain that I am a bunker and I am protecting her so that the other bunkers are free to protect other bunkers and provide us with more chances to "give em hell" as a starship trooper might say.

If you don't believe that I am a bunker, fine.

The mindset that you are attacking me with here is not that though. It isn't, "Epi is an alien and wants us to think he's protecting nutella when in reality he just wants to trick us so he can shoot her." The mindset you are attacking me with here is "This is a dumb plan."

Alison was referring to my plan, not your suggestion that nutella needs to be protected. but forget it, my plan doesn't work because i forgot that nutella can't protect anyone at night lol. and also because as tutuu pointed out, the aliens could just instead shoot someone protected and make us waste our protects and outlive us.

i prefer tony's second plan but it needs a little tweaking.

[Epignosis]

Well I need space fuel before I continue.

[Dragomir]

Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

It's a she. She made a post and it does not give me any indication of game solving. Plus, it seems overextended in trying to look nice and unscummy. Your entrance post was just as uninformative, but it was unbiased. I null read u for that, but count -1 ok carot till I see more.

Do you expect players to come right off the bat with game solving in their entry post?

No, but Carot was online until i went to bed. I expect some reactions and developments, especially as I prodded her. I didnt get that, so she can keep LC and Rej company in my list for now

Hmm, alright. Dunya is good y'all. Lock that read.

this reads as very insincere to me. why did my response move you? in fact, i'm willing to move drago into my scum pile because of it and move carot higher.

first of all, the language of his first post "Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?"

~ from what I recall: implies he wants us to think he isn't paying too much attention, yet he knows Carot has made literally one post.
~ he(or she)?: Carot has her preferred pronouns in her profile. indeed, we have discussed her several times so i feel like someone who knows Carot has one post, would have been able to know Carot is a she if he wanted to.

the second one is a little distancy, if i wanted to tinfoil. indeed, the entire question could be scum inquiry on behalf of his teammate. but i don't wanna tinfoil, i wanna say dragomir is bad and tried to pocket me after seeing i have a strong presence itt. that makes his inquiry a little left field for me. let's switch Carot and Drago's positions in my scumpile.

let's give dizzy a town read, because GAME GAME! and because i'm generous.

here's where i'm at:

town, from towniest to least towny:
nutella - Laser Gun Operator
tutuu
Epignosis
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
TonyStarkPrime
protocultures
Alison
Dyslexicon

undecided:
bimbo
Soneji
Carotenoid

alien:
Dragomir
Rej
Long Con

Your response didn't move me, I've been town reading you for the majority of this phase so far, but I wanted to check one last time to see if I should lock it or not.

Your suspicion is making zero sense. I wasn't trying to appear as if I haven't been paying attention. Why would I even do that? I flat out haven't been paying much attention until recently. But noticing Carot has only one post is not something that requires much focus. She had the first post in the game iirc(or was it you and she made the next post?) and she has then made no other post. By noticing a post of hers early and none for the rest of the thread, it's pretty easy to conclude that she has one post.

Dunya, I'm not looking at ppl's profiles out here for no reason. Furthermore, I had stated that I had merely glanced at the majority of the posts in the thread so if you guys had called Carot a she, then I missed it.

This suspicion is pretty trivial. Quite frankly, I don't think the reasons you provided are valid.

[dunya]

Well I need space fuel before I continue.

oh no. red alert, this is not a drill, [mention]Dyslexicon[/mention] we have a coffee tell on our hands ;p

[Epignosis]

Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."

On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....

and if Epi's an alien...

nutella kills me and loses a bunker.

[dunya]

Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."

On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....

and if Epi's an alien...

nutella kills me and loses a bunker.

thats not exactly how it works. nutella would be dead.

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] does the person being protected know how many people protected them? o.O

[dunya]

we should run the mexican standoff game on here. also a game i played on NF which was a ton of wacky fun omg.

[Epignosis]

I have to poop, but I don't want to tell anybody that because I vaguely recall that being a tell too.

[Epignosis]

I think the best plan is four people protect nutella N1, a different five N2, etc. etc.

Obviously numbers adjust as we kill scum.

we can expend 1 to 4 bunker protections and potentially lose if we picked all 4 maf but fair enough i dont think it will happen

if we go with the RNG strat of 20%, there is a 90% chance that nutella has at least 1 protection and on average it will expend only 2 protections total (since 10 bunkers)

the biggest benefit of going RNG is that it's quiet / we deny mafia info

Alison is right that the less info we give maf the better. I feel like "town" and "mafia" are kind of reversed in this game; we, as town, need to hide as much info as we can, and maf will have a lot of solving to do

But I do personally think if we decide to make no public plans, on average, we will waste more protections than if we all agree to go with a random number. That's just how I feel.

What if I'm a bunker, said in the thread I'm going to protect nutella, but don't?

[dunya]

I have to poop, but I don't want to tell anybody that because I vaguely recall that being a tell too.

dont worry, the actual guy didn't have to poop. you're ok if it's a real poop. send evidence.

but yea, i'm sure drago is bad. i'll bet my cat on it.

[dunya]

Your response didn't move me, I've been town reading you for the majority of this phase so far, but I wanted to check one last time to see if I should lock it or not.

majority implies there were instances where dragomir didn't townread me. where are these instances? can anyone gleam those from looking at his iso?

why do you need to "lock" me as town? when has locking someone as town on day 0 ever been a goal of like, anyone? how did that "last check" confirm i am lock town for you at all? if i do say so myself, that's a flimsy ass reasoning i gave. i basically want to see more of carot. i want to be able to read her ideas. i can say there's not been any game solving or hunting by at least 3 or 4 other players. but you were satisfied with my response too easily because TMI.

there's no motive in your post that is believable to me, that shows actual progression on your handling or read of me. you approached me as town and you locked me as town. bad.

Your suspicion is making zero sense. I wasn't trying to appear as if I haven't been paying attention. Why would I even do that? I flat out haven't been paying much attention until recently. But noticing Carot has only one post is not something that requires much focus. She had the first post in the game iirc(or was it you and she made the next post?) and she has then made no other post. By noticing a post of hers early and none for the rest of the thread, it's pretty easy to conclude that she has one post.

so you have read the whole game, which means you can offer us a lot more than your iso suggests by way of suspects. and yet, i don't see any game solving, any hunting, any effort to actually set people apart. it's almost like...you already know who's bad and not. your iso is all fluff. as someone with 17 posts already and counting, i take issue with that.

Dunya, I'm not looking at ppl's profiles out here for no reason. Furthermore, I had stated that I had merely glanced at the majority of the posts in the thread so if you guys had called Carot a she, then I missed it.

that's fair, this is basically only going to become a point for me if carot continues being in my poe, at which point, i may connect you as teammates from the careful wording there. i'm anal like that.

This suspicion is pretty trivial. Quite frankly, I don't think the reasons you provided are valid.

oh, there is more. but i am at work not and that post of yours hit the nail in the coffin so to speak.

[dunya]

on that note, if drago is an alien, i feel even better about nanook and alison.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

we should run the mexican standoff game on here. also a game i played on NF which was a ton of wacky fun omg.

I love this idea.

[dunya]

we should run the mexican standoff game on here. also a game i played on NF which was a ton of wacky fun omg.

I love this idea.

submit it to the queue pls. only u can run it cos i wanna play it

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@Dragon D. Luffy does the person being protected know how many people protected them? o.O

No.

[protocultures]

Ok, so it seems everyone has been assuming that we go from Day 0, straight into Day 1 with no laser pew pew at the end of day 0 and then into Night 1 with 1 Alien night KP.

Knowing this, who has bought into my Nutella select 3 people at random to all force save them in the night plan? This gives a 1.1% chance of getting 3 aliens assuming Nutella picks at random. If there is an error in my math, please feel free to let me know.

Ideally Nutella will read this and agree with the plan that 1.1% loss on Night 1 is acceptable to avoid wasting additional bunker saves.

In addition to this, we collectively announce 4 public bunker saves on top of the saves on Nutella. This includes the saver and the savee. This is for reasons to reduce wasting bunker stacks in private and get cleaner info. Also, laser all liars policy re daytime agrees bunker saves vs "I did something different at night". The added benefit of this is we get to force aliens to "save" when they dont have this power. It will out them as alien if the person they were supposed tro save dies in the night when aliens have 1KP. As such, this again reduces the POE kill pool for aliens, which is amazeballs for town.

We actually dont want to save every night necessarily because it will dilute our clean info pool. We dont want to know that someone within 7 saves is town, we would rather know that someone within 2 saves is town. Assuming I live long enough, I would ideally like a matrix that is updated every game day to see what has occured re who was in POE, who was saved, who has used x saves out of 4, and who is still alive.

Lets see who is drinking my super awesome non cult kool aid.

If you DISAGREE with my plan for any reason, can people explain why the plan is bad, and propose a better plan?

This post is again guilty of IOA and is not reads based and entirely mechanics. If you find it scummy, please find the scummy logic in my proposal and why it is anti town. If you worked through it and find it pro town, would I do this as an alien or would I push some less efficient proposal to waste bunker saves?

Ideally I would like some actual peer review of the proposal rather than "that person wrote a wall of text so they get a town pass for the day".

[Dragon D. Luffy]

we should run the mexican standoff game on here. also a game i played on NF which was a ton of wacky fun omg.

I love this idea.

submit it to the queue pls. only u can run it cos i wanna play it

If you don't mind signing up to YET ANOTHER game, Mexican Standoff 4 is with sign-ups open.

And I think it only start in like end of July or something. Host says he'll do it after Favorites.

[Dragomir]

Your response didn't move me, I've been town reading you for the majority of this phase so far, but I wanted to check one last time to see if I should lock it or not.

majority implies there were instances where dragomir didn't townread me. where are these instances? can anyone gleam those from looking at his iso?

why do you need to "lock" me as town? when has locking someone as town on day 0 ever been a goal of like, anyone? how did that "last check" confirm i am lock town for you at all? if i do say so myself, that's a flimsy ass reasoning i gave. i basically want to see more of carot. i want to be able to read her ideas. i can say there's not been any game solving or hunting by at least 3 or 4 other players. but you were satisfied with my response too easily because TMI.

there's no motive in your post that is believable to me, that shows actual progression on your handling or read of me. you approached me as town and you locked me as town. bad.

Your suspicion is making zero sense. I wasn't trying to appear as if I haven't been paying attention. Why would I even do that? I flat out haven't been paying much attention until recently. But noticing Carot has only one post is not something that requires much focus. She had the first post in the game iirc(or was it you and she made the next post?) and she has then made no other post. By noticing a post of hers early and none for the rest of the thread, it's pretty easy to conclude that she has one post.

so you have read the whole game, which means you can offer us a lot more than your iso suggests by way of suspects. and yet, i don't see any game solving, any hunting, any effort to actually set people apart. it's almost like...you already know who's bad and not. your iso is all fluff. as someone with 17 posts already and counting, i take issue with that.

Dunya, I'm not looking at ppl's profiles out here for no reason. Furthermore, I had stated that I had merely glanced at the majority of the posts in the thread so if you guys had called Carot a she, then I missed it.

that's fair, this is basically only going to become a point for me if carot continues being in my poe, at which point, i may connect you as teammates from the careful wording there. i'm anal like that.

This suspicion is pretty trivial. Quite frankly, I don't think the reasons you provided are valid.

oh, there is more. but i am at work not and that post of yours hit the nail in the coffin so to speak.

I'm going to respond to the first part of this later. Watching a show right now and the response will be big so I wanna do it later.

But I haven't read the whole game. As I said, I merely glanced at the majority of the posts. The only read I have is a town read on you. I do not need to read every single post in order to tell that Carot has made one post.

[Carotenoid]

hyijifhinrjdfihbrenjdfhedsi aaaaaaaah multiquote button didn't work bierjnnfierhehuj
*take a deep breathe* it's gonna be okay
anyway

TonyStarkPrime's plan seems to be the best so far, but it's kinda risky to the not-poe-people past n1, if that makes sense. So I propose that we kinda flip it around:

- On odd nights, two top townreads (or like one top townread + 2 midlytownread that can't all be wolves together) protect nutella. And then we could do something like bottom of POE protect the people protecting nutella and all the others only self-protect if they feel the need to.

- On even nights, bottom of POE protect nutella. The rest of the players only self-protect if they feel the need to.

That way, the protection shots are used more horizontally and avoids that town ends up with no shots at the end. Also I feel like unless we specifically coordinate something specific in the thread, bunker shots should only be used on their own slot.

[Long Con]

Fortunately most peoples' opinions on who's bunker or alien mean dick squat. Aw, you suspect me? That's cute.

[Rej]

Tho thinking about it now, if one or more of the 4 scummiest players are town, mafia won't try to kill Nutella since it'd be futile. So I can see a benefit there for town reads.

How I see it happening is that mafia might go after the assigned "protectors" or someone outside of the reach, if an assigned protector gets killed then we have to fill that slot, ergo it is possible that we stick in a loop and yes we have to hope our PoE is right.

Drago doesnt like Spacemovies = bad

Dunya, Alison and Tutu are town GTH, nice energy.
Not excluding the possibility that a wolf is coordinating the mechtalk with others.

Tho nothing else pinged me for now. I am at work, will be properly active later on.

Hmmm

I'm making a note for later of stuffing Alison with 1 post between me and tutu and calling out nice energy. Something pingy about this entrance.

Well her entrance was "agressive" not passive, it pinged me and from a GTH perspective there wasn't anything negative I felt there.

[Rej]

but I'll scan it for that sweet sweet town core read

My impression from TSP is not !powerwolf, but rather !powertown
why? he values PoE alot, especially his PoE and the way he sets it up he wants to have it a long term meaning in this game

Seeing it from that perspective, we should give it a try, but also assign a protect for TSP maybe. If he Powertowns then he is valuable later on. <<< and we should only do it if we believe in TSP strategy

So wait...does it make TSP our geneal and strategic leader against the aliens?

[Rej]

also anyone who didn't vote star wars is lying tbh.

who you tryna challenge?

[Rej]

we should run the mexican standoff game on here. also a game i played on NF which was a ton of wacky fun omg.

was it the game where I got nightkilled N1?
novas begged me to play it, he said it was good, I love it, I didnt play it - kappa

[Rej]

protoculture is town GTH, I think he is Einsteining so hard, he is about to invent a machine for town that will solve the game

[Rej]

Aliens (4)

- Have BTSC.
- Win the game is they either eliminate the Laser Gun Operator, or all Bunkers.
- On odds nights, the aliens make one kill together. The kill will work if no Bunkers are protecting the target.
- On even nights, if there are 2 or more aliens alive, the faction can perform up to 2 kills. If both kills aim for the same target, they will only survive if being protected by at least 2 Bunkers. If they aim for different targets, a single Bunker may stop each kill.

ok last post from me before I start a new Minecraft server
[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] dunno if I skimmed over it, but shouldn't we assign the 4(?) bunkers only for the even nights? since the first night is an odd night we don't have to worry that much with just one protect on nutella
this is allowing people to freely pick or even assign a protect on whoever we think deserves (strategic leader, town leader, main bunker)
maybe assigning is a wrong term to use, but there imho has to be a slight coordination

okay I am out to start a new Minecraft server

[Dyslexicon]

Game game game, game game game?

[Carotenoid]

2 persons pinged me as bad for the moment :

* Epignosis is like only focused on protecting nutella in a stubborn/non-cooperative way, which is not helping town. They're also only reacting to posts that directly involves them throughout the thread, so they did read the rest, just didn't react. (Also poop reads.)
* Long Con's posts are 3/4 defense and 1/4 dubious mechanic talk, not good.

tutuu seems the most town to me and I'm still sorting the others

[tutuu]

is it possible to iso ppl on mobile i vaguely remember an iso button on my laptop but could be wrong

also im at the countryside now and no internet and i need to take a 10 min walk up the hill behind our house to catch 4g every time i feel like playing mafia lol

also tonystark might be maf we'll see

[tutuu]

its weird to me that literally everyone be scumreading long con and the epi person r u guys metaing or wat. cuz im not seeing how r they so obv scummy but could be wrong idk

[Carotenoid]

There's iso links in the first post: viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1904#p616174

[Long Con]

its weird to me that literally everyone be scumreading long con and the epi person r u guys metaing or wat. cuz im not seeing how r they so obv scummy but could be wrong idk

They like to make me laugh.

[protocultures]

I had the same issue on mobile. If you flip it to landscape mode, the buttons on the left hand side show up so you should be able to iso without going to page 1.

The lack of engagement with my grand plan to repulse the alien threat makes me sad.

Either people didnt read it, read it but didnt understand it and dont want to ask questions, or they are aliens who are scared of the grand plan.

town coming together with an agreed game plan is important in this setup. Having everyone go maverick/solo/secret night actions all the time is massively anti town imo. There isnt even any real benefit to individual scum hunting.

You either project town to Nutella or you dont. Beyond this, you try and figure out the best way to help town win.

The number of purely defensive posts is surprising to me, particularly from people with huge post counts (who i expect should know better).

If these people are going to come out with some awesome strat later on, I will sit down and shut up, but until then, should I not expect constructive posts on day 0? Is this like meme day 0 on forums?

To summarise again:

Assuming Day 0 (no shoot) --> Day 1 (laser shoot) --> Night 1 (alient 1KP)

We just need Nutella to rng 3 people from the 14 to bunker save Nutella, no exceptions. These people confirm receipt of the instruction from Nutella and nobody else stacks/wastes bunker saves on Nutella.

For the math, this is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% because the only permutation where we lose laser Night 1, is if we rng 3 aliens. That is 3 bunker saves used out of a total of 40.
[If laser shoots a town on Day 1, the math changes slightly to 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11, so we get 24/1,716, so 1.4% chance we insta lose first night. I am still okay with that. Odds get lower than 1.1% if laser shoots alien day 1. Either way, its so low, we shouldnt care about it.]

For the second part, I suggest we nominate 4 additional people to be bunker saved and identify who will save them. Nutella to nominate if town consensus cannot be found. What does this all achieve?

Without a grand plan, aliens POE into 10 bunkers plus Laser.

With this plan, aliens can ONLY POE into 6 potential players which is now also known to town.

4 of the players are "safe" due to being actually saved or proxy saved because an alien was allocated to bunker someone on a 1KP night. At this stage, we have used 7 bunker saves so far.

This leaves our pool of random bunker shots who I think should save at an average rate something between 1/2 and 1 per night per random bunker with higher weighting to bunker saving on early days to reduce chances of dying with high bunker saves remaining.

What does this result in?

We get much cleaner info on saves, which helps Nutella make more informed day shots.

Assuming about half the unallocated savers bunker into the POE, this means we get a decent shot at finding a save, AND when saved, we should be able to narrow it down to 1 to 3 people. Because there were 6 people in the POE for aliens, nobody died, and only 3 people got bunkered for example. Think how massively more helpful this is than everyone doinf their own thing and landing save where POE was 10 people. The chances of landing a save in the first place is smaller, the chance of stacking bunkers (a waste on a 1KP night), and even if you DO land a save, you now have a larger POE of potential town who got saved.