Amdibals at the Zoo! [END]

[tutuu]

neither!

[DrWilgy]

i'm now 2 for 2 dunking scum d1 on this website. might have to hang it up after this game to preserve the streak

Hello Amy, have we played together before?

Why did you dunk 112 and was there anyone you felt opposing your dunking of 112?

[tutuu]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

baaa!

[DrWilgy]

Colin, Amy and proto look the best off the flip because they both made an active choice to vote 112 over me when they really didn't have to. Like proto explicitly said they had reasons to scumread me and still chose to vote 112 in order to save me, when if they were scum they could have reiterated those exact same reasons and voted me to save their scumbuddy. Colin did the same thing, they were like "yeah Alison is sorta scummy for XYZ reasons, I have her at 60-40 to be scum..." then voted 112 anyway. Not exeing there today.

tutuu still has scum equity because they did spend the entire day phase trying to shove the counterwagon to 112 but probably is less scummy from the flip because she did it in such a way that if 112 ever flipped she'd look awful, whereas I think scum usually try to go for more "plausible deniability" reasons to vote the counterwagon to preserve cred. Still could be openwolfing but I have her as like a light scumlean and not my top POE here. Also tutuu was somewhat insistent that if we weren't going to exe me we should exe 112 and not TH, which is a good look.

Mac is right that 112 being scum makes Urist look really bad - probably the scummiest of the people on my wagon. The "112 is cleared off there being no momentum to her wagon" stuff looks awful in hindsight and the way they moved off me when it looked like my wagon was losing steam and then suddenly jumped back on at the last second when it looked like I was a viable counterwagon again was really bad.

I'll sheep nutella's townread on TH/Wilgy for now and set that slot aside for the moment. Right now I'm just looking to exe someone on my wagon because I know I'm town so it's fairly clear to me that I was the counterwagon meant to try and save 112.

What do you think about the other 112 voters? Mac and TSP?

[Alison]

I think this EOD1 was particularly good in terms of soft clearing players for me. [Amy, Colin, proto, Mac?] is like my tentative towncore and I'm willing to trust them and go from there.

Bottom POE is something like [Urist, nanook, 10k], top POE is [Carotte, tutuu] or something. I'll leave Wilgy to the side for a bit since I don't genuinely believe they belong in towncore but I also trust nutella's read on them so they're sandwiched somewhere between top POE and towncore. I could be swayed on 10k belonging in top POE since a big part of my issue with them is that they have done literal nothing but I checked upick and they also did literal nothing there as town so maybe it's NAI.

[Amy]

the first question we have to ask ourselves is pretty reminiscent of a post-KZA d2, actually: given how hard 112 just rolled over, was she bussed; if so, how hard?

whether or not i provide answers to these questions depends on how badly i want to be nightkilled. a level 1 reading of the nutella kill indicates wolves are comfortable narrowing down the pool voting for 112, but there's still 6 people left. could easily be 1 or 2 wolves in there.

i'm gonna [VOTE: Urist] aubergine for now, partially for vague "sheeping mac" reasons and partially for less vague "i dislike how they attempted to portray the threadstate as pointing towards v!112 yesterday" reasons

linki: hell yeah tutuu this is the way

i'm now 2 for 2 dunking scum d1 on this website. might have to hang it up after this game to preserve the streak

Hello Amy, have we played together before?

Why did you dunk 112 and was there anyone you felt opposing your dunking of 112?

we haven't, no

i settled on a 112 vote to open d1 because she felt pretty joyless d0 and just seemed like she didn't want to be here. as the day progressed i felt that the threadstate indicated her being a wolf more than it indicated her being town - if she were town, she would have been a super easy misdunk to push, and yet it took forever for her wagon to gain any real traction

[tutuu]

Maybe tony and 112 are partners and he pocketed me by making me chuckle

An alarmingly realistic possibility

this tbh

we should consider tsp too, girls!

[Alison]

What do you think about the other 112 voters? Mac and TSP?

I'm sorta null on TSP. I'll put him in my top POE if you put a gun to my head. I've seen some stuff from him I didn't like but I think it's attributable to playstyle differences and I've seen similar things from him when he was town too.

Mac is in my tentative towncore. This is well within his scumrange, I think, but prima facie "shoving a mafioso really early on and doing it from start to end of day and then launching a blistering attack on my top scumread" is good behavior. Probably the weakest of my towncore but still belongs there.

[Amy]

the level 1 reading of wagons is that the alison push was largely to provide a viable alternative to 112

the alternative interpretation is that 112 was bussed and alison was pushed by villagers

these two are not mutually exclusive (see: kza v scirrus in philosophers); however, it's probably worth looking at who the primary sources of momentum on each wagon were

[tutuu]

i thought 112 was being bussed too cuz she said she was depressed so ngl i was ready to still push nutella today and the embarassment wouldnt stop

so like

if she was bussed hard maybe nutella doesnt die? cuz nutella kinda just called 112 wolf all game without much reason and stuff? idk. i expected amy to die n1. these are all just incoherent thoughts

but like yeah, maybe nut dying means 112 wasnt bussed that hard? maybe 1 wolf max?

[Amy]

i think of all the players who like hard pushed 112, i'd agree that mac has the highest bussing equity just because i think it's absolutely in his range to do so

i'd probably consider tsp/112 soft unaligned off tsp's vote unless it was a coordinated full-team bus, tbh. i don't think tsp is investing enough effort in this game for "bus and go deep" to look like an attractive option to him

colin and proto i think made villagery choices to vote 112 over alison; alison voted in self-pres and i don't THINK the wagons were w/w

and then nutella is dead and i am me

so that's the 112 wagon

[DrWilgy]

Thank you both for the insight.

Based on your descriptions alone I would say Mac can belong in towncore. I do not feel that he'd press a bus early on a teammate if there's no reason/need. The momentum he'd have to gain would have to be massively worth it for him to consider it.

linki: Who would the late voters on 112 be that would make a bus? Looking at the poll, a single vote swap would've made an easy tie.

[Amy]

i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf

[Alison]

the level 1 reading of wagons is that the alison push was largely to provide a viable alternative to 112

the alternative interpretation is that 112 was bussed and alison was pushed by villagers

these two are not mutually exclusive (see: kza v scirrus in philosophers); however, it's probably worth looking at who the primary sources of momentum on each wagon were

The wagons were close enough that a busser could have found a reason to hop over at some point, which makes me think that the bus was not as all-in as KZA's was (although I severely doubt that the wagon on me was all wolf - if you asked me to hazard I guess I'd say 2 wolves on my wagon and 1 wolf on 112's, or something).

I just think that from the POV of the wolves, one wagon is on their buddy and another is on a reasonably active town player, and this is a good reason to bias towards pushing me. I doubt all of them piled on the same wagon (it's possible but low chance), but I also think they biased towards pushing me rather than pushing 112. The KZA thing had special circumstances too, since the wolves were pursuing a fake clear strategy based on their two dayvig shots from the start, which incentivizes them to bus in-thread harder than in this game.

[DrWilgy]

Assuming was present for the vote, I find it very unlikely that he wouldn't chaos factor to try to save a teammate, but that's just meta.

[Alison]

Maybe I'm biased because I'm on the receiving end on it but I really do think that the push on me was godawful rationale wise and "badly reasoned push as a counterwagon to known scum" is a good place to hunt for scum

linki: Wilgy can you give me a quick rundown on where you are in the game atm

[Amy]

the level 1 reading of wagons is that the alison push was largely to provide a viable alternative to 112

the alternative interpretation is that 112 was bussed and alison was pushed by villagers

these two are not mutually exclusive (see: kza v scirrus in philosophers); however, it's probably worth looking at who the primary sources of momentum on each wagon were

The wagons were close enough that a busser could have found a reason to hop over at some point, which makes me think that the bus was not as all-in as KZA's was (although I severely doubt that the wagon on me was all wolf - if you asked me to hazard I guess I'd say 2 wolves on my wagon and 1 wolf on 112's, or something).

I just think that from the POV of the wolves, one wagon is on their buddy and another is on a reasonably active town player, and this is a good reason to bias towards pushing me. I doubt all of them piled on the same wagon (it's possible but low chance), but I also think they biased towards pushing me rather than pushing 112. The KZA thing had special circumstances too, since the wolves were pursuing a fake clear strategy based on their two dayvig shots from the start, which incentivizes them to bus in-thread harder than in this game.

inclined to agree

based on that i feel pretty good about pushing urist for the time being, pending a reread

[DrWilgy]

Also, I'd like for some answers, here. If both 112 and Alison are on a team, how does that affect the towncore? Is this even possible?

Liki: I read nutella was murdered, looked at the poll and jumped in right where I said I did by responding to tutuu. I'll probably go back later and skim, but for now I want in your heads.

[tutuu]

(i just nod and i sheep u two and i dont get in your way)

[Alison]

i thought 112 was being bussed too cuz she said she was depressed so ngl i was ready to still push nutella today and the embarassment wouldnt stop

so like

if she was bussed hard maybe nutella doesnt die? cuz nutella kinda just called 112 wolf all game without much reason and stuff? idk. i expected amy to die n1. these are all just incoherent thoughts

but like yeah, maybe nut dying means 112 wasnt bussed that hard? maybe 1 wolf max?

I mean, 112 was acting low WIM all game, but also if you think it was related to the wagon on her, you'd expect it to be based off being hard called out by like multiple town players in a row and spending the rest of the day phase thinking "wow I'm shit at wolf", whereas if it's a bus you would be slightly less depressed because at least you're buying your teammates towncred and you also don't feel like you've been totally outplayed beacuse your death was planned to some degree

overall I think the depression thing is NAI but if it wasn't it should be pointing towards 112 not being bussed

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

[tutuu]

i thought 112 was being bussed too cuz she said she was depressed so ngl i was ready to still push nutella today and the embarassment wouldnt stop

so like

if she was bussed hard maybe nutella doesnt die? cuz nutella kinda just called 112 wolf all game without much reason and stuff? idk. i expected amy to die n1. these are all just incoherent thoughts

but like yeah, maybe nut dying means 112 wasnt bussed that hard? maybe 1 wolf max?

I mean, 112 was acting low WIM all game, but also if you think it was related to the wagon on her, you'd expect it to be based off being hard called out by like multiple town players in a row and spending the rest of the day phase thinking "wow I'm shit at wolf", whereas if it's a bus you would be slightly less depressed because at least you're buying your teammates towncred and you also don't feel like you've been totally outplayed beacuse your death was planned to some degree

overall I think the depression thing is NAI but if it wasn't it should be pointing towards 112 not being bussed

i didnt word it very well. i meant that since 112 said she was depressed, in hindsight, i suspected that she probably wanted to get bussed. at least its probably what i would have done the moment i entered wolf chat. that was my justification for voting nutella today lol

[Alison]

Amy I'm on the same page as you regarding how this is still in Mac's wolf range, but I don't think it would be a conscionable play to exe him today over much scummier spots. If he's deepwolfing we'll catch him in endgame or something. Anyone can bus anyone but we have to make a decision about who to vote based on the balance of probabilities.

Also [VOTE: Urist] aubergine

[Amy]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

elaborate?

[tutuu]

im rly rly rly rly rly sorry for yesterday alison this is why i talked about not making scumreads cuz these stuff happen every time. im sorry im sorry im sorry im sorry im sorry please love me

[Alison]

Assuming was present for the vote, I find it very unlikely that he wouldn't chaos factor to try to save a teammate, but that's just meta.

I assume this refers to Mac?

If so I sort of agree that trying to create chaos during EOD to save a teammate is up Mac's alley based on what I've seen of his scum play. I don't think he's compelled to do it to such an extent that we should be townclearing him off it not happening though.

[Alison]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

elaborate?

maybe he doesn't feel great because he has to vote a buddy after seeing his other buddy exed D1?

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

Boi, you good or bad this go around? Talk to me about Urist and Alison.

Assuming was present for the vote, I find it very unlikely that he wouldn't chaos factor to try to save a teammate, but that's just meta.

I assume this refers to Mac?

If so I sort of agree that trying to create chaos during EOD to save a teammate is up Mac's alley based on what I've seen of his scum play. I don't think he's compelled to do it to such an extent that we should be townclearing him off it not happening though.

Fair

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

elaborate?

Eh, ime Urist is usually a bit less obvious as scum

But I’m also notably poor at reading him historically, plus Joseph and game state suggest hes >rand mafia, so he’s probably the right vote

[Amy]

==towncore==
alison
proto
colin
mac*

==lean town==
tsp
insomnia

==upper poe==
tutuu
wilgy
carotte

==apparently this person is still in this game==
10k

==lower poe==
nanook
urist

[ColinIsCool]

I am LOCK TOWN!!!!!

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

Boi, you good or bad this go around? Talk to me about Urist and Alison.

Assuming was present for the vote, I find it very unlikely that he wouldn't chaos factor to try to save a teammate, but that's just meta.

I assume this refers to Mac?

If so I sort of agree that trying to create chaos during EOD to save a teammate is up Mac's alley based on what I've seen of his scum play. I don't think he's compelled to do it to such an extent that we should be townclearing him off it not happening though.

Fair

What about them? Alison is probably town ig. Urist is mayve mafia, idk

[MacDougall]

i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf

I'm sorry what?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tutu is just never mafia imo

Like maybe she has an insanely good scum game that is super close to her town game but

Everything I know about her says she’s town this game, I would bet on it

[ColinIsCool]

I see where the Urist suspish comes from; his activity re: 112 and attempts to move the thread away from that chop are not a good look. I will be looking for other potential teammates too

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

I don’t feel great about it tho

Boi, you good or bad this go around? Talk to me about Urist and Alison.

Assuming was present for the vote, I find it very unlikely that he wouldn't chaos factor to try to save a teammate, but that's just meta.

I assume this refers to Mac?

If so I sort of agree that trying to create chaos during EOD to save a teammate is up Mac's alley based on what I've seen of his scum play. I don't think he's compelled to do it to such an extent that we should be townclearing him off it not happening though.

Fair

What about them? Alison is probably town ig. Urist is mayve mafia, idk

This lad is bad.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I miss being a stump tbh

[Amy]

mm maybe carotte and nanook should swap on my list

i feel like i cleared carotte for bad reasons, maybe

gut says she should be lower

[tutuu]

Tutu is just never mafia imo

Like maybe she has an insanely good scum game that is super close to her town game but

Everything I know about her says she’s town this game, I would bet on it

omg tysm nanook-kun ilysm

(i would be completely shameless as mafia and i would lie about crying and anything btw, but ur right that im town this game hihihihi)

[MacDougall]

I am stunned nutella is dead. It's a really bad fear kill. I was absolutely going to push to yeet her today. Makes me think the scum are literally just in Alison voters tbh.

[Alison]

==towncore==
alison
proto
colin
mac*

==lean town==
tsp
insomnia

==upper poe==
tutuu
wilgy
carotte

==apparently this person is still in this game==
10k

==lower poe==
nanook
urist

I don't know who insomnia is but this is basically exactly where I'm at right now

Also I have to go play MTG with a friend so bye for now

[Alison]

I am stunned nutella is dead. It's a really bad fear kill. I was absolutely going to push to yeet her today. Makes me think the scum are literally just in Alison voters tbh.

You scumread nutella over Urist? I thought you were super convinced Urist and 112 were partners together, and that would trump out over your read that nutella was TMI-ing me

[Amy]

i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf

I'm sorry what?

let me first clarify that you're one of my top town and this is like. lylo tinfoil

but i got myself to thinking "IF mac is a wolf here, who would he have killed last night"

and i suspect the answer is "whoever is most likely to catch him"

which would, i believe, be nutella

linki: alison, insomnia is tedxtr

[DrWilgy]

==towncore==
alison
proto
colin
mac*

==lean town==
tsp
insomnia

==upper poe==
tutuu
wilgy
carotte

==apparently this person is still in this game==
10k

==lower poe==
nanook
urist

I don't know who insomnia is but this is basically exactly where I'm at right now

Also I have to go play MTG with a friend so bye for now

I wanna plaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.

I miss card games.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tutu is just never mafia imo

Like maybe she has an insanely good scum game that is super close to her town game but

Everything I know about her says she’s town this game, I would bet on it

omg tysm nanook-kun ilysm

(i would be completely shameless as mafia and i would lie about crying and anything btw, but ur right that im town this game hihihihi)

Yeh I’m sure you would

But I don’t think your enthusiasm is fakeable, maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think I am

[tutuu]

ur never wrong ur goat and amazing

[Alison]

mm maybe carotte and nanook should swap on my list

i feel like i cleared carotte for bad reasons, maybe

gut says she should be lower

Her push on me, the way she jumped on certain things, felt kinda similar to the push she made on me in SI where she was town there, as well as the push she made on Giraffe in semis. She was town in both games. And on a base level her play is not super scummy. I still have her in my upper POE (and not the top of it either) but I don't have her in my bottom one.

[Alison]

i also suspect that w!mac kills exactly nutella last night

certainly other wolves can make that kill, but i think mac ALWAYS makes that kill if he's a wolf

I'm sorry what?

let me first clarify that you're one of my top town and this is like. lylo tinfoil

but i got myself to thinking "IF mac is a wolf here, who would he have killed last night"

and i suspect the answer is "whoever is most likely to catch him"

which would, i believe, be nutella

linki: alison, insomnia is tedxtr

huh I vaguely remember playing with them before?

[DrWilgy]

@1612 / @tedxtr - Post history
@Alison - Post history
@Amy - Post history
@Carotenoid - Post history
@ColinIsCool - Post history
@MacDougall - Post history
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Post history
@protocultures - Post history
@TenThousandCalories - Post history
@TonyStarkPrime - Post history
@Turnip Head - Post history / @DrWilgy - Post history
@tutuu - Post history
@Urist - Post history

This is the game.

Someone tell me why I'm right or wrong.

[Alison]

ur never wrong ur goat and amazing

how do you have like 0 suspicion nanook is pocketing you