Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia postgame

[Jackofhearts2005]

Coaching isn't a thing that actually happens very often in my experience, especially without brand new players. Accusations of coaching always feel either like lies or just obv wrong.

[nutella]

[mention]Marcher Jovian[/mention] please provide some semblance of an opinion on dj neutron star

you came in shortly before eod and quickly pushed cass, as soon as neutron was in danger you moved to jiwon

you have only mentioned neutron's name in wagon analysis contexts and have never stated a read other than maybe an implication predicated on you suspecting cass and assuming they're not w/w

why did saving them appear to be your main concern at eod?

[Carotenoid]

oh also like DDL made the coaching read at a very weird timing. iirc it was like before dov even posted?

idk to me voting without posting is super scummy intuitively, I can't really believe anyone would actually think that someone was instructed to vote without posting

[Marcher Jovian]

@Marcher Jovian please provide some semblance of an opinion on dj neutron star

you came in shortly before eod and quickly pushed cass, as soon as neutron was in danger you moved to jiwon

you have only mentioned neutron's name in wagon analysis contexts and have never stated a read other than maybe an implication predicated on you suspecting cass and assuming they're not w/w

why did saving them appear to be your main concern at eod?

gth town

[Dragon D. Luffy]

DJ/dov/Jovian/carot scumteam?

It's too good to be true but let's call it now just in case.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

oh also like DDL made the coaching read at a very weird timing. iirc it was like before dov even posted?

idk to me voting without posting is super scummy intuitively, I can't really believe anyone would actually think that someone was instructed to vote without posting

Yes it's super scummy. They came 10 minutes before EoD to put a vote on the leading wagon right after I started a CFD on someone else and only talked when nutella tagged them.

That's why I called it out.

It's not weird to call something scummy when it is scummy.

[Carotenoid]

oh also like DDL made the coaching read at a very weird timing. iirc it was like before dov even posted?

idk to me voting without posting is super scummy intuitively, I can't really believe anyone would actually think that someone was instructed to vote without posting

Yes it's super scummy. They came 10 minutes before EoD to put a vote on the leading wagon right after I started a CFD on someone else and only talked when nutella tagged them.

That's why I called it out.

It's not weird to call something scummy when it is scummy.

But you didn't call it scummy because it was scummy, you called it scummy because it seemed coached

[Dragon D. Luffy]

"oh gee, I think DDL is suspicious for calling someone scummy when they act super scummy"

Sorry mafia, you're gonna have to night kill me. This kind of thing won't be enough.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

oh also like DDL made the coaching read at a very weird timing. iirc it was like before dov even posted?

idk to me voting without posting is super scummy intuitively, I can't really believe anyone would actually think that someone was instructed to vote without posting

Yes it's super scummy. They came 10 minutes before EoD to put a vote on the leading wagon right after I started a CFD on someone else and only talked when nutella tagged them.

That's why I called it out.

It's not weird to call something scummy when it is scummy.

But you didn't call it scummy because it was scummy, you called it scummy because it seemed coached

Holy semantics, Batman!

I said it looked coached. If I say I think someone received a hint from their scummates and not specifically mention I think this person is mafia, the later should be taken as an obvious implication of it.

[Marcher Jovian]

@Marcher Jovian please provide some semblance of an opinion on dj neutron star

you came in shortly before eod and quickly pushed cass, as soon as neutron was in danger you moved to jiwon

you have only mentioned neutron's name in wagon analysis contexts and have never stated a read other than maybe an implication predicated on you suspecting cass and assuming they're not w/w

why did saving them appear to be your main concern at eod?

gth town

I isoed the main wagons. I came out of it with cass gth wolf, dj gth town, and jiwon gth jiwon. I voted with my reads. It's not some hard "I have a ride-or-die on dj" like you've made it out to be. Maybe some day someone will make a good case there and I'll consider it. But something tells me that there isn't going to be a good case, considering just how many people have bandied him about as an option and he's just falling in the rankings in a very "town getting pushed by mafia for a mischop" way.

[Carotenoid]

lol i think I'm just back to scumreading DDL
His team is mostly people that haven't participated a lot on D1 + me *shrug*

I liked nutella's recent posting, her being super confident but not really able to explain it

I have to go for now, see you on D2!

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Carotte how did you feel Jovian and dov coming in during EoD?

[Jackofhearts2005]

DDL can be a wolf later. Stick to the plan, chums.

[Carotenoid]

MJ replaced during EoD so *shrug*
I thought they seemed really really confident, maybe a bit too much. That's why I liked your line of posting at that time

Well dov is okay. I don't think he's lying about being busy so I consider it NAI. The "I sheeped Carotte" justification seems credible so I don't really mind giving him another day or two to get his footing.

[Alison]

Here's where I am in terms of reads at the moment. The list of people in each category is not ordered. Consider this my legacy reads if I should die during the night phase.

Hard Town - These are the people who've done something to make me actively trust them.
Alison
PSINightmareEmpower
Carotenoid
Dragon D. Luffy

Townlean
cayvie
DrWilgy
Fatmo
Long Con
nutella

Mixed Bag
chardonnay

Scumlean
Jackofhearts2005
Marcher Jovian

Scum
cassowary
DJ Neutron Star
dov

I don’t think cass / DJ neutron star are ever w/w with the way that flash wagons went down.
The neutron wagon was an even split with 2 from jiwon and 2 from cass, unless mafia were playing hyperreckless bussing games I don’t think that happens if w/w.
I’m thinking it’s more likely mafia jumped onto the cass counterwagon for cred when it looked like jiwon was certain to go over, and took the flash wagon as a chance to get off when things started looking risky. Think that points to cayvie as the teammate?

This suggests that you think cass/Neutron are V/V. Why?

[Alison]

Ugh. Neither of the alternate viable wagons look good to me, but I know U-G isn't popular enough to go through right now. I have to switch, but I don't know to whom.

Jiwon isn't doing anything for me. I'm all right with it, but not personally sold on it. Clearing out the inactives is important though, so maybe I should?

I can't vote Cass in good conscience. I haven't done enough research on them to confidently place a vote. It's just a sheep read I'd do as mafia so I can't vote them until I've done my research, and I don't have time to do research before EoD.

...

...

...Jiwon it is.

[VOTE: JiwonMeganPark] aubergine

Ahh ok.

[VOTE: JIWAN] aubergine

Welp this is exciting

[VOTE: jiwon] aubergine

Hey i found cass's teammates

Oh, you think Cass is scum. Why does mafia jump onto the counterwagon on their own teammate when they can just sheep the one on Jiwon?

[nutella]

[Long Con]

Wow that's ugly.

Skimmed the catchup. I like Jack and DDL as town, Alison is sketch-city still but whatchagonnado. This latest nutella-Jovian thing has my interest.

Here's where I am in terms of reads at the moment. The list of people in each category is not ordered. Consider this my legacy reads if I should die during the night phase.

Hard Town - These are the people who've done something to make me actively trust them.
Alison
PSINightmareEmpower
Carotenoid
Dragon D. Luffy

Townlean
cayvie
DrWilgy
Fatmo
Long Con
nutella

Mixed Bag
chardonnay

Scumlean
Jackofhearts2005
Marcher Jovian

Scum
cassowary
DJ Neutron Star
dov

I think move LC one category down, from townlean to scumlean. He hasn't done enough and nutella is right that a vanity wagon so close to EOD looks awful.

Me not having done enough is NAI, and you vastly overstate the level of awfulness in my vote yesterday, because, though it was a throwaway vote, it was 100% acceptable in the situation.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Alright I like that reads post from UG and see his tone as more town now lol

Yeah I like that big UG post too.

[cassowary]

I stand by my LC vote at the time, and I still find his... aggressive response to suspicions of him a little strange, but also I don't know him and maybe this is just how he is always? The people who know him don't seem concerned, at least.

underlined reads like a wolf unhappy that they can't just get away with an easy policy-esque vote

Really? I think I've explained why I voted for LC pretty thoroughly. How does this come across as policy-esque to you?

Maybe policy isn't the right word but it felt like you were talking less about why LC is a wolf and more about why LC is weird and suspicious — like you said you say you're standing by your read and then you immediately start undermining your own arguments and saying oh everything I was wolfreading was just personality stuff. Your argument also doesn't really mesh with the reason you gave for your vote? Like you justified it based off of agreeing to much and mechanics talk and generally being too passive it seems like you're arguing the opposite right now. There's a weird mindset thing, shouldn't people saying lc tends to be an agressive player make you more suspicious of a slow start, not less?


cass's original vote for reference:

Spoiler: show

Having played with PSInightmare before im surprised that your takeaway is a scum lean. I'm thinking shes town tbh

I mean I said 'maybe slight' scum lean. I do find it interesting that other people jumped on it so quickly, though.

I do think reading too much into psi's tone is ill-advised though. That wasn't my intent with my callout of her. I can confirm as well that she always writes like this. But also, I feel like she was good at using her posting style to her advantage when she was mafia before, so I feel wary of TRing her based on this as you seem to be?

Still, I'm not sure she's my prime suspect atm. Going to go back and read over the thread more carefully.

Wait, you have meta experience with PSI? Why did you wait to mention this now, and not when you made that post saying you suspected her?

I followed your first post about her, but I don't have meta experience with PSI. The other guy who does have it defended her after I made that case. But now that people are calling the case in question, you decide to remind us that you know her meta and change your read to a more null one?

Uh, sort of? Carotte asked me specifically for reads on the people I already did have meta experience with, but most of them hadn't really made any posts, and I wanted to have something rather than just saying 'they're all null!' This was kinda my strongest feeling at the time based on the, like, 3 posts the people I already knew had made. But to be honest I'm not super attached to this read so... ehh.

The read wasn't based on tone/writing style, bc I do know she always writes like this. I understand people who don't know her reading her tone as suspicious, but my read was based more on the fact that she seemed to not be trying to have her reads stand out. I feel like chardonnay may have confused my post and your post on PSI and thought that I was calling out PSI's tone, which I was not, even if I was pointing at the same post. But at the same time I disagree with chardonnay here that the tone is a meta reason to townread her either, because she's good at maintaining that tone regardless of alignment ime.

@chardonnay you didn't really specify why you're feeling psi as town beyond 'she often comes across as appeasing' -- could you go into more detail? For me, meta experience would seem to imply she should be floating somewhere around the middle, I'm not sure where you're getting town from.

---

Re the other stuff going on:

Count me in as not a fan of Jiwon's posting this game either. "inactivity is NAI" doesn't apply when the person is posting but just choosing not to engage.

I don't really see the suspicion of cayvie, or at least I don't see myself voting for Cayvie today when there are better options on the table.

I can also get behind the LC wagon. I don't feel like he's contributed a whole lot of original stuff beyond mechanical speculation and agreeing with other people's reads.

I'll do [VOTE: long con] aubergine for now.

also why does it say aubergine whenever people vote lol

this was like a billion years ago lol but I want to respond to it.

I don't think I'm undermining my own arguments here. It's sort of, tone vs content? Like, I wouldn't say my initial vote was based on him seeming "passive" -- even as he wasn't really engaging with a lot of what was going on, his tone was still very blunt, and his actual writing doesn't come across as passive at all. That combination of tone and content seems dangerous to me because posting with an aggressive tone can make people not want to call you out even if you haven't had a lot to say at all. That's a very advantageous position for a mafia to be in. People saying LC always tends to be aggressive makes me less confident that he's specifically cultivating this to give him an advantage as mafia, at least, but I still want to keep an eye on him over content level.

Compare, say, PSINE, who does always tend to post in a very "hedge-y" way, which might come across as kind of passive, but she's obviously paying attention to what's going on in the game and forming opinions on it. (also she always writes like that so the tone is pretty nai)

I'll do some catching up on the rest of the thread now.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

His team is mostly people that haven't participated a lot on D1 + me *shrug*

It's the guy I tried to yeet yesterday, the two people who prevented that, and the person currently trying to deflect it back to me who also participated in yesterday's yeet.

[cayvie]

Wow that's ugly.

Skimmed the catchup. I like Jack and DDL as town, [color=#FFB0FF]Alison is sketch-city still[/color] but whatchagonnado. This latest nutella-Jovian thing has my interest.

do you think Alison is particularly likely to be mafia?

[Long Con]

Wow that's ugly.

Skimmed the catchup. I like Jack and DDL as town, [color=#FFB0FF]Alison is sketch-city still[/color] but whatchagonnado. This latest nutella-Jovian thing has my interest.

do you think Alison is particularly likely to be mafia?

Still withholding judgment on that for another phase.

[Alison]

Me not having done enough is NAI, and you vastly overstate the level of awfulness in my vote yesterday, because, though it was a throwaway vote, it was 100% acceptable in the situation.

It doesn't matter if it's NAI, it's a reason you're in the POE.

Justify your vote to me.

[Long Con]

Me not having done enough is NAI, and you vastly overstate the level of awfulness in my vote yesterday, because, though it was a throwaway vote, it was 100% acceptable in the situation.

It doesn't matter if it's NAI, it's a reason you're in the POE.

Justify your vote to me.

I did that when I cast it.

[Alison]

Me not having done enough is NAI, and you vastly overstate the level of awfulness in my vote yesterday, because, though it was a throwaway vote, it was 100% acceptable in the situation.

It doesn't matter if it's NAI, it's a reason you're in the POE.

Justify your vote to me.

I did that when I cast it.

"I don't have a preference between Jiwon and Cass" is not a reason to naked vote someone who had 0% chance of being exed last day phase and then leave the vote on before vanishing. Are you afraid to get caught with your vote on a townie?

Just caught up to the nutella/Jovian stuff. I think there's a high chance those two slots are V/W, and I would start by exeing Jovian first.

Sorry for the brief/sporadic posts, I'm actually supposed to be doing game night right now and am sneaking off to post in the game.

[Long Con]

Me not having done enough is NAI, and you vastly overstate the level of awfulness in my vote yesterday, because, though it was a throwaway vote, it was 100% acceptable in the situation.

It doesn't matter if it's NAI, it's a reason you're in the POE.

Justify your vote to me.

I did that when I cast it.

"I don't have a preference between Jiwon and Cass" is not a reason to naked vote someone who had 0% chance of being exed last day phase and then leave the vote on before vanishing.

Yeah it is.

Are you afraid to get caught with your vote on a townie?

Let me know if you have any real questions for me.

[Alison]

Alright, kill LC after resolving the Jovian/nutella difference check. He doesn't act like this when he has suspicion wrongly cast on him as town. He tries to show he's town, and gives up if he doesn't succeed. He doesn't lash out at people and openwolf like this.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Thread locked for night action resolution

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

In the night...

[mention]nutella[/mention] falls into a volcano. She was town and flips:

Katara (Water Tribe)

Healing Hands: You can choose to either Protect a player at night (a doc save) or Heal a player during the day (a poison heal). You cannot use them in consecutive phases (i.e., if you use a Protect on N1, you cannot use the Heal D2, etc.). In addition, your heal will work on any element player. You are town, and you win when all the mafia are dead.

How will the team carry on through this tragic loss?

In addition, [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] has been burnt in the night, and will die at EOD if not healed.

D2 will end September 6, 4pm EDT, or when a player receives 10 votes.

[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]
[mention]cassowary[/mention]
[mention]cayvie[/mention]
[mention]chardonnay[/mention]
[mention]DJ Neutron Star[/mention]
[mention]dov[/mention]
[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]
[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]
[mention]Fatmo[/mention]
[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]
[mention]KitsuShel[/mention]
[mention]Long Con[/mention]
[mention]PSINightmareEmpower[/mention]
[mention]Ultimate-Gamer[/mention]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

(D2 post caps are in the OP!)

[cassowary]

Aw man, not the doc. :'(

For posterity, here's the reads post I was working on before the thread got locked:

(I know there's a lot in here that's based on people's opinions of me, but like... everyone's talking about me, so)

Nutella -- unless nutella's playing some kind of long game and trying hard to pocket me instead of just going for the easy misyeet for some reason, I think nutella's soul townread on me looks very good.
DDL -- I like DDL's, style, I guess? He's putting pressure on people and seems to be thinking through what's happening in the game. Also I think I just agree with a lot of his reads? And his sudden push near eod away from me onto Neutron looks v good fmpov
PSI -- I'm mostly putting PSI high bc I like her energy and I agree with a lot of her reads
Cayvie -- similar to DDL, I just like her posts, and her reasoning feels legit
Alison -- still trust her on the NU claim
DrWilgy -- hasn't had a lot to say, honestly, and I'm not a huge fan of this type of gamestate-speculation(?) reasoning as someone's main contribution
Fatmo/Dov -- keeping these two somewhere around the middle bc I don't really remember much of what they've done tbh
U-G -- as U-G has posted more he's kinda floated back up in my reads, my initial SR was mostly tone-based anyway so ehh reconsidering
Neutron -- I feel like Neutron has come across this way before when he's playing as town, like, we flipped neutron d1 for very similar reasons in this deeply stupid mafiascum game. I'm kinda sus on Neutron but not my biggest suspicion right now, kind of a meta read.
Jack -- looking through jack's ISO he has actually posted a fair amount but has said very little. Not a huge fan of "someone sell me on a wagon" -- looks like he's looking for an excuse to jump on someone
Carotenoid -- maybe this is just because she keeps pushing me . But I just don't really feel like I trust her at this point in time. She kind of voted me w/ little explanation and then all her reads list afterwards had on me was like the psi thing and 'reshuffling ideas' (??) and i'm the top suspicion for like half the roster? hmm
Chardonnay -- I feel like chardonnay and carotenoid have been kinda playing the same game here tbh. I mean this is basically the same vague stuff carotte was throwing at me. and i don't know what to do with this. also, if you think I'm scum why are you worried about carot setting up a mutually exclusive relationship between me and you. . . hmm
LC -- he still kinda seems like he's not super engaged. and what was up w/ that vote eod1. bad look [p-edit @ alison: yeah, openwolfing, that's the thing he's doing. the gif is a tell, a tell i say
Jovian -- don't really like the way they've been kind of hard tunnelling me and extrapolating a lot of extra stuff from there. like, what's your plan if I flip town, buddy?

[Marcher Jovian]

That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.

[Jackofhearts2005]

In the night...

@nutella falls into a volcano. She was town and flips:

Katara (Water Tribe)

Healing Hands: You can choose to either Protect a player at night (a doc save) or Heal a player during the day (a poison heal). You cannot use them in consecutive phases (i.e., if you use a Protect on N1, you cannot use the Heal D2, etc.). You are town, and you win when all the mafia are dead.

How will the team carry on through this tragic loss?

In addition, @Jackofhearts2005 has been burnt in the night, and will die at EOD if not healed.

Reactions:

Nutella’s town lol what do I know.

I’m burnt. Rude but I’ll just get healed.

Let’s check Nutella’s role. Oh.

[Jackofhearts2005]

That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.

X to doubt.

There’s massive wifom there.

[Long Con]

Alright, kill LC after resolving the Jovian/nutella difference check. He doesn't act like this when he has suspicion wrongly cast on him as town. He tries to show he's town, and gives up if he doesn't succeed. He doesn't lash out at people and openwolf like this.

[nutella]

glgl

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m gonna pretend I suspected Nutella cause she was purposely acting suspicious to protect her PR. That’s what happened.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Let’s start the day with a fun [VOTE: Cass] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

I don’t have to justify shit today cause I’m dead walking. If you thought I was unyeetable before he ho.

[Marcher Jovian]

That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.

X to doubt.

There’s massive wifom there.

Nah like I would /never/ make that kill, cuz I have first-hand experience in pretty much that exact situation.
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... =27&t=1906
Pyre mafia was a game I played not long ago on this site. In that game, like this one, I came under pretty heavy fire early on, getting hard tunneled by 2 players and facing general sus starting d1 and n1. We didn't kill any of the people sussing me. We killed tutuu, who was broadly townread and probably never gonna get mischopped. Then, over the next day, we started to maneuver. Lissa got into bussing position and pocketed town leader Zack, and managed to ride that pocket and dodge virtually any suspicion til we outed at endgame. I posted a bunch on d2, and ended up collecting a townshield from Sloonei. Turns out it's a real hamper to your ability to solve when you were caught defending a flipped wolf. On d3 I finally died, but i caused so much chaos at eod that I got the townie TSP caught up in it and looking bad, and he flipped right after me despite having another partner that had been run up to be a major wagon every single day previously. Sure I died, but after my death I left behind a mindfield that made it impossible for town to solve. It worked beautifully.

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again. Guaranteed Town/Wolf wagons are an absolute godsend in this scenario because it lets you know exactly what's gonna happen the next day. As a wolf team, this is the time when your advantage of tmi is strongest. You basically get a stranglehold on the game, you know exactly what you need to do to maximize cred, and as the wolf taking the fall you just catch onto any townies starting to be wrong and just make sure that they are punished hard for not having tmi and that the next days well be suffering and solveless as town starts killing itself.
[VOTE: cass] aubergine

[Alison]

Hm, actually I remember LC reacting like this to JJJ suspicion of him in Jack Attack. He might not be scum.

Jovian, I appreciate the effort, but "I did the opposite thing and it worked during Pyre" does not clear you for killing the person who scumread you the most strongly lol

[Dragon D. Luffy]

That kill clears me

Hahahahahahahahaha.

No.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Let's continue where I was.

Still waiting for [mention]DJ Neutron Star[/mention] to explain wth is with his Cass case.

[VOTE: Neutron] aubergine

[cassowary]

That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.

X to doubt.

There’s massive wifom there.

Nah like I would /never/ make that kill, cuz I have first-hand experience in pretty much that exact situation.

...

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again. Guaranteed Town/Wolf wagons are an absolute godsend in this scenario because it lets you know exactly what's gonna happen the next day. As a wolf team, this is the time when your advantage of tmi is strongest. You basically get a stranglehold on the game, you know exactly what you need to do to maximize cred, and as the wolf taking the fall you just catch onto any townies starting to be wrong and just make sure that they are punished hard for not having tmi and that the next days well be suffering and solveless as town starts killing itself.
[VOTE: cass] aubergine

By definition this is still wifom though! You could also do the opposite thing and then try to use this exact logic to clear yourself. Why should I believe you would never make this kill, when you immediately jump on it to try to clear yourself after this kill gets made??

On the other hand, would a wolf immediately jump out and go 'oh see I'm cleared!'? Seems a bit on the nose. And so on around in circles. WIFOM.

[cassowary]

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

[cayvie]

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

[DrWilgy]

Lol, good shade Cass.

As if that's my main contribution.

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: Cass] aubergine

[cassowary]

Perhaps a miswording, didn't mean to imply that post was your only contribution or whatever

But it kind of seems like you've posted reads but not really justified them beyond like speculation about general factors? like this is the other post where you discussed reads on people but you're kind of just agreeing with carot and listing suspicions without much reasoning there imo

and the other post i linked which is ">=1 of these 4 is a wolf based on gamestate" which... ok sure but that's true 80% of the time of four random people (assuming 2:1 town:mafia ratio)

Idk, I'm willing to chalk it up to difference in play style but I'm curious if you have opinions about the actual events that have gone down, beyond 'one of the wagons was probably mafia'?