Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.
"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game
Sure Allison...you've got the 3P clearly in your sights.
Except I know I'm not it, and your continuous "well towny people aren't the 3P" is giving me no confidence at all because I think the rogue would very much want to appear towny.
Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:36 pm
yeah, the attitude that wilgy had makes me trust him more. not enough to not exe him unless something happens, but enough to not make me want to exe him first. he was like "okay, np, let's thunderdome and I'll flip town and out tim", and tim was like super insistent on trying to stay alive and trying to push a specific worldview
Yeah, well, "trust me even though in this case I'm wrong...just lay down and die and leave the game in my capable hands" is not something I'm really good about. You're the one who wants me dead so bad, and I have no interest in thunderdoming you. You're wrong, and you're reasoning is absent, but you're still on the very very short list of people I think are not only not wolves but not 3P either.
the truth is that my reasoning is present and has been acknowledged by everyone else in the thread so clearly it exists and you repeatedly asserting it doesn't does not make your claim true. I also don't care whether or not you think I'm wrong - I'm taking the action that leads to the best probability of town winning, and "I know I'm town so don't execute me" is not a defense that affects that calculation.
Yeah, no kidding...maybe that's why I never have and never would say something so flat stupid...but thanks.
as previously mentioned, something really stupid happened somewhere, so "X would never do this because of how dumb it is" arguments don't hold much water with me. It's why I still want to execute Wilgy even though he made a claim that was easily verifiably false, which is stupid.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:16 pm
Can someone explain Herm's role to me? I don't understand the results we have for him which are 1) Amnesiac - no result and 2) Kid A - no result. These roles that have to do with song titles are mashing together in my mind so I want to be clear on them.
Every night, Herm selects an album. If any song in that album contains a song used by a member of scum, they are informed of it. As best as I can tell, that is what their role does.
Ok so the "no results" means those albums do not contain scum songs I'm guessing.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.
"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game
Sure Allison...you've got the 3P clearly in your sights.
Except I know I'm not it, and your continuous "well towny people aren't the 3P" is giving me no confidence at all because I think the rogue would very much want to appear towny.
that argument makes no sense. should I start thinking that towny people aren't scum becuase scum want to appear towny too?
the truth is that everyone wants to appear townie. scum have a harder time doing it because they're not actually townie, only pretending to be. the same goes for 3P. differentiating between pretend-townie and actual-townie is the basis of town play.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?
tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:09 am
we can probably use herm's role in combination with poison chan as pseudo peeks?
force dr wilgy to claim his song and album
herm checks the album to find if there are any scum in it
poison chan checks to make sure dr wilgy says the truth
or anyone else not just dr wilgy
@MacDougall what do u think should we force someone to claim song
Yeah probably the whole POE. If the rogue kills them all then yay.
Problem being that forcing them to claim doesn't force them to tell the truth...and if the rogue just says "thanks" and goes on collecting without killing them it could be just a head start towards a very bad end.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?
Hey that's a bloody smart theory.
I agree, though I would have though a day action that deactivated JPIC would have kept him from moving at all.
3p role. Fake Plastic Trees. Each night you target a player. That player will lose all of their role powers. You win the game when every player left aside from you has had their roles taken away.
tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:09 am
we can probably use herm's role in combination with poison chan as pseudo peeks?
force dr wilgy to claim his song and album
herm checks the album to find if there are any scum in it
poison chan checks to make sure dr wilgy says the truth
or anyone else not just dr wilgy
@MacDougall what do u think should we force someone to claim song
Yeah probably the whole POE. If the rogue kills them all then yay.
Problem being that forcing them to claim doesn't force them to tell the truth...and if the rogue just says "thanks" and goes on collecting without killing them it could be just a head start towards a very bad end.
The song cop can verify if they're lying. If they are we just kill them. It they claim a song off a record we haven't had a flip on yet we also prioritise them in the POE.
Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.
"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game
Sure Allison...you've got the 3P clearly in your sights.
Except I know I'm not it, and your continuous "well towny people aren't the 3P" is giving me no confidence at all because I think the rogue would very much want to appear towny.
that argument makes no sense. should I start thinking that towny people aren't scum becuase scum want to appear towny too?
the truth is that everyone wants to appear townie. scum have a harder time doing it because they're not actually townie, only pretending to be. the same goes for 3P. differentiating between pretend-townie and actual-townie is the basis of town play.
I find it a whole lot easier to believe in a slanky wolf than a slanky 3P myself, and basically that's what the majority of your POE is...the slanky people. The people I have as most likely to be the 3P are people you have as never consider until the POE is completely eliminated, which by my count if I am correct gives the rogue something like nine game days to meet their wincon.
So, yeah, if I were handicapping this game right now I would call the wolves a long shot and town/3P more or less even odds.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:24 pm
But targeting JPIC probs wouldn't help with that wincon lol.
Would help short term though if someone thought JPIC was the alignment cop.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:23 pm
How's this for a theory.
3p role. Fake Plastic Trees. Each night you target a player. That player will lose all of their role powers. You win the game when every player left aside from you has had their roles taken away.
I agree this seems unlikely, but out of curiosity would that be a permanent loss?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm
WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:24 pm
But targeting JPIC probs wouldn't help with that wincon lol.
This I think is a critical clue to the 3P role. Whatever else is true about the 3P, I think that they had to target JPIC on day two. His passive power being blocked has to have been a day action, and it had to have come from the 3P. So there is nothing about the 3P wincon that involves people he targets being alive long enough for him to collect them as kills. Just the targeting itself is what furthers the wincon.
The question was posed more of a "what are your thoughts?" Instead of hey let's do this.
Probably anxiety, but my brain has the tendency to go down the path of "what if we've been bamboozled and Tim is town?" The fact that Tim has not considered this option for me makes me more confident that we haven't been bamboozled, but the idea is still present.
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm
WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm
Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.
Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?
Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
The question was posed more of a "what are your thoughts?" Instead of hey let's do this.
Probably anxiety, but my brain has the tendency to go down the path of "what if we've been bamboozled and Tim is town?" The fact that Tim has not considered this option for me makes me more confident that we haven't been bamboozled, but the idea is still present.
Ummmm...I actually looked into the ways I thought I could be making a mistake regarding JPIC getting vigged and how that might affect your track. I've also been industriously speculating about how we might be getting mislead by some sort of 3P "vanillariser" with Dizzy et al. I've speculated so much about various bamboozling prospects that Alison has told me to just shut up and die. I just think that the simplest solution to the JPIC track is that you faked your claim. After some clarification from Sloonei I acknowledge that the simplest solution to the Dizzy track is that I faked mine. You and me both have to get chopped and that is a fact.
I also see that Samu is a pretty obvious chop choice after us.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:46 pm
One of the songbois is probs 3p tbh
I had that same thought.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
[mention]Master Radishes[/mention] what is up? You haven't been here since early yesterday morning. I'm used to you being much more of a force in games.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pmAlways good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.
juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm
Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.
Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?
Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.
oddmerta is in my upper POE for the 3P hunt, and I expect the lower POE to be cleared really fast so you have nothing to worry about if you genuinely think oddmerta is the thread.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
That reminds me Juliet...Radishes is also clear on the 3P. Poison was informed that a particular civilian song title associated with the power that Radishes had already claimed.
Another thing to note is that your power can be used to clear people as 3P if they have some verified non lethal power. You protect a particular target and have them try to use their power on them while they are being tracked. If they go to the target and their power goes through they are civilian. It's clunky, but actually could clear multiple suspects since we have two trackers.
hi! i'm pre-occupied today so i won't be posting very much, but luckily, i don't have much else to say that hasn't already been said. tim is the optimal yeet for a number of reasons and i need to see his flip to change/re-evaluate my reads
juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm
Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.
Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?
Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.
oddmerta is in my upper POE for the 3P hunt, and I expect the lower POE to be cleared really fast so you have nothing to worry about if you genuinely think oddmerta is the thread.
How really fast? I see it as through day five just offing me, Wilgy, and Dizzy. That leaves at least three or four in 'lower POE,' doesn't it?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?
Hey that's a bloody smart theory.
No one has claimed vanillarizer though. I don't think there is one.
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:04 pm
Do we know there are no vig shots left?
No we don't. I don't remember if TSP claimed one shot or Xshot vig. There may be other vigs available as well, either as additional powers that are being left out of claims or as power in the 'can't talk' claims. But I'm thinking there can't be all that many. I expected a big turnout of KP N2, but with that not happening I have sort of left the massive vigs theory behind.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?
Hey that's a bloody smart theory.
No one has claimed vanillarizer though. I don't think there is one.
If there is one it's the 3P and they ain't gonna claim it.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm
Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:19 pm
@Dyslexicon can you please make sure your vote is on someone unlikely to get tracked/vigged/copped if they don't die today.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:46 pm
One of the songbois is probs 3p tbh
I don't believe poison is 3P, so it's samu or herm
Any particular reason re: PC
nothing PC has done makes sense this game if she is 3P
tone is great, she has been willing to sheep towncore and get scum exed, has outed the existence of a mafia role cop along with the song, towncleared radishes when she didn't have to... 3Ps don't townside this much in this position
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
The condition of my track is hilarious, since I'm usually a player who almost always consolidates on wagons and am often a part of the biggest wagon, scum or town. And my whole plan for this game was to sheep =p
juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm
Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.
Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?
Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.
oddmerta is in my upper POE for the 3P hunt, and I expect the lower POE to be cleared really fast so you have nothing to worry about if you genuinely think oddmerta is the thread.
How really fast? I see it as through day five just offing me, Wilgy, and Dizzy. That leaves at least three or four in 'lower POE,' doesn't it?
you and wilgy are the lower POE. and we're not executing dizzy. of the people left, like LC, they will be taken care of with night abilities during the nights we're executing you and wilgy. then it's onto the upper POE. also given you seem super convinced wilgy lied I'm surprised you don't have any faith in wilgy flipping 3P anyway.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
