Fallout 2: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game [AMERICA RISES]

[DaughterOfOmega]

I think scum that try to go UTR don't usually claim power roles early on. If she attempts to back out of claiming NCR we exe her. If night results make it questionable that she's from NCR we exe her. Before that I am not too worried. DOOM also does not strike me as the sort of brash player that just slaps down a fat PR claim immediately as mafia, and it would be unusual for a scum team to instruct her to do that.

well, I'd say that in my history I have never listened to someone telling me what to do as mafia lol.

[Sloonei]

Alison
Spacedaisy
Dom
Epignosis
falcon45ca
Jackofhearts2005
KZA
MartinGG99
Poison
staypositivefriend
TonyStarkPrime
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
DaughterOfOmega
Grogu
reywaS / Kylemii
Urist
MacDougall
Marmot
Long Con
Rej
ChopChop

This rainbow does not inspire confidence. Too many of those light greens could easily be moved down. All three oranges have a little bit of OMGUS in them from me. The middle copper tier has too many names in it.

At least I feel good about the top two and bottom two.

I think of the trio of Mac/Marmot/LC, the player I'd be most comfortable moving up to green is Marmot.

[Urist]

What is the base probability that a townie forgets to list the name of someone on a wagon they are investigating, and that person just so happens to be the scum nightkill?

Is it 1 in 10? 1 in 50? 1 in 100?

Because even if you buy that he wouldn't out like this as scum, he wouldn't do X or Y, you still have to contend with that rock bottom base probability. No matter what.

I don't think that probability is high enough for me to want to keep Chop alive. And as mentioned, I don't want them in a critical scenario like FX.

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
we don't get closer to solving the game.
we don't eliminate a powerful enclave role (in fact, if he is enclave, his role is useless now because nobody will believe his messages and nobody is going to be targeting someone who could be a commuter).
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

look, i've defended him most of the game, but i'll admit i wouldn't be totally shocked if he flips enclave. spacedaisy is a super strange choice for a target, esp when he mentions in the message that he trusts me. his actions have been totally irrational, as sloonei says. i'm not discounting the possibility.
however, i do see how he could be taking these actions as town, and given the limited benefit to eliminating him today, i think we should aim elsewhere.

[Sloonei]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

[Alison]

What is the base probability that a townie forgets to list the name of someone on a wagon they are investigating, and that person just so happens to be the scum nightkill?

Is it 1 in 10? 1 in 50? 1 in 100?

Because even if you buy that he wouldn't out like this as scum, he wouldn't do X or Y, you still have to contend with that rock bottom base probability. No matter what.

I don't think that probability is high enough for me to want to keep Chop alive. And as mentioned, I don't want them in a critical scenario like FX.

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
we don't get closer to solving the game.
we don't eliminate a powerful enclave role (in fact, if he is enclave, his role is useless now because nobody will believe his messages and nobody is going to be targeting someone who could be a commuter).
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

look, i've defended him most of the game, but i'll admit i wouldn't be totally shocked if he flips enclave. spacedaisy is a super strange choice for a target, esp when he mentions in the message that he trusts me. his actions have been totally irrational, as sloonei says. i'm not discounting the possibility.
however, i do see how he could be taking these actions as town, and given the limited benefit to eliminating him today, i think we should aim elsewhere.

if we exe chopchop and he flips mafia messenger then all messages from this point forth and known 100% to be from town and can be fully trusted

we get to solve the rest of the game without people bringing the conversation back to chopchop and how outed he is every 15 minutes

town gets an overall morale boost from seeing a pelt

we get to go back after seeing his flip and see who pushed him first during day 1

[KZA]

Alison
Spacedaisy
Dom
Epignosis
falcon45ca
Jackofhearts2005
KZA
MartinGG99
Poison
staypositivefriend
TonyStarkPrime
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
DaughterOfOmega
Grogu
reywaS / Kylemii
Urist
MacDougall
Marmot
Long Con
Rej
ChopChop

This rainbow does not inspire confidence. Too many of those light greens could easily be moved down. All three oranges have a little bit of OMGUS in them from me. The middle copper tier has too many names in it.

At least I feel good about the top two and bottom two.

I think of the trio of Mac/Marmot/LC, the player I'd be most comfortable moving up to green is Marmot.

am I colorblind? your words do not match what the list actually looks like lol

[Alison]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

I think he's saying, if you think Chop is Enclave, why not catch the rest of the team first who have more scary roles/abilities, and eliminate him at your leisure.

[Kylemii]

chopchop is a smurf?

[Alison]

sloonei, why is poison green?

[Urist]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

tbh i'm not convinced that eliminating chopchop furthers that goal either but who cares what i think

[KZA]

oh the bottom 5 names are in fact 2 different colours ignore me

[Sloonei]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

I think he's saying, if you think Chop is Enclave, why not catch the rest of the team first who have more scary roles/abilities, and eliminate him at your leisure.

Because if Chop is Enclave then we have a caught wolf right in front of us. You take that every time.

[Sloonei]

oh the bottom 5 names are in fact 2 different colours ignore me

Yeah sorry those weren’t supposed to look so similar

[Sloonei]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

tbh i'm not convinced that eliminating chopchop furthers that goal either but who cares what i think

We were supposed to be assuming he’s enclave in this thought exercise.

[staypositivefriend]

[VOTE: ChopChop] aubergine

[Urist]

alison, i'll assume for the sake of argument that chopchop is enclave.
what is the benefit to executing him today?
...
is there some other benefit to eliminating him that i'm not thinking of?

You mean besides the part where eliminating the Enclave is literally our primary goal in the game?

tbh i'm not convinced that eliminating chopchop furthers that goal either but who cares what i think

We were supposed to be assuming he’s enclave in this thought exercise.

the thought exercise is supposed to support my argument tho

[Sloonei]

sloonei, why is poison green?

Spoiler: show

sloonei, do you have any thoughts about poison's posts on the last page or two?

I like the energy she is bringing, but I have not seen her do anything that would give me a strong indication of her alignment one way or the other. GTH town.

yeah, i liked them too, mostly because her tone feels unrestrained. was curious if you were thinking the same

Actually if there is something more than just “energy” that I would read in her favor: I like that she’s been unafraid to ask questions about things that have already been covered/comment on things she hasn’t read yet. Maybe that’s what you mean by “unrestrained”. It feels like she is here to follow her own leads at her own pace, and doesn’t care about optics or anything other than getting answers.

[Alison]

Urist has been talking about ChopChop and nothing but ChopChop for the last few dozen posts, with the main exception being to complain about an SPF push against him and support exeing Rej (who's the alternative to ChopChop). I am fine with him personally townreading ChopChop and can see where he would do it as town. My main concern is that in the meantime he isn't producing any content.

Urist, in order to assauge my concerns that you're using this as a smokescreen to avoid taking stances on other players, I would like you to give me a quick rundown on how you feel about the players in this game. A full readslist would be good, but if not, at least outline your stance on some areas of controversy (Mac, Nanook, Marmot, etc.)

[KZA]

I also just felt straight up good vibes from Poison so that's probably fine for today

[staypositivefriend]

i think the argument of: "why would chopchop out his entire message if he was scum?" is a flawed one - it is very plausible that chopchop just assumed that space would out the message if he didn't, and that he simply wanted to ~get ahead~ of the pressure by outing it right away

but even then, urist (iirc) was directly asking him to out the message. if he said "no" and refused to out it, then it would just make him look scummier

[Alison]

sloonei, why is poison green?

Spoiler: show

sloonei, do you have any thoughts about poison's posts on the last page or two?

I like the energy she is bringing, but I have not seen her do anything that would give me a strong indication of her alignment one way or the other. GTH town.

yeah, i liked them too, mostly because her tone feels unrestrained. was curious if you were thinking the same

Actually if there is something more than just “energy” that I would read in her favor: I like that she’s been unafraid to ask questions about things that have already been covered/comment on things she hasn’t read yet. Maybe that’s what you mean by “unrestrained”. It feels like she is here to follow her own leads at her own pace, and doesn’t care about optics or anything other than getting answers.

How confident are you in this read?

[Alison]

I also just felt straight up good vibes from Poison so that's probably fine for today

If Poison is scum, exe KZA.

If Poison is town KZA is probably town because this doesn't feel like TMI.

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

[Sloonei]

sloonei, why is poison green?

Spoiler: show

sloonei, do you have any thoughts about poison's posts on the last page or two?

I like the energy she is bringing, but I have not seen her do anything that would give me a strong indication of her alignment one way or the other. GTH town.

yeah, i liked them too, mostly because her tone feels unrestrained. was curious if you were thinking the same

Actually if there is something more than just “energy” that I would read in her favor: I like that she’s been unafraid to ask questions about things that have already been covered/comment on things she hasn’t read yet. Maybe that’s what you mean by “unrestrained”. It feels like she is here to follow her own leads at her own pace, and doesn’t care about optics or anything other than getting answers.

How confident are you in this read?

not very

[Sloonei]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

how's my rainbow?

[DaughterOfOmega]

ngl, I tried to start getting into this game, and people have non stopped talked about WIFOM about a claimed power

what an interesting day 2

[Urist]

Urist has been talking about ChopChop and nothing but ChopChop for the last few dozen posts, with the main exception being to complain about an SPF push against him and support exeing Rej (who's the alternative to ChopChop). I am fine with him personally townreading ChopChop and can see where he would do it as town. My main concern is that in the meantime he isn't producing any content.

Urist, in order to assauge my concerns that you're using this as a smokescreen to avoid taking stances on other players, I would like you to give me a quick rundown on how you feel about the players in this game. A full readslist would be good, but if not, at least outline your stance on some areas of controversy (Mac, Nanook, Marmot, etc.)

am planning on doing that + responding to spf's concerns later tonight when i have time to focus

[Sloonei]

ngl, I tried to start getting into this game, and people have non stopped talked about WIFOM about a claimed power

what an interesting day 2

Thoughts on Rej?

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

[Sloonei]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

how's my rainbow?

it's fine. my rainbow would look different, but yours is in the ballpark of my mindset right now. i would have jack, epignois and kza lower. i would have myself, mac, and long con higher.

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

perhaps

but if urist wanted to get ahead of it, why defend chopchop in the first place?

maybe im just talking myself out of an easy level 0 partner read, but it does feel a little too obvious

[Sloonei]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

perhaps

but if urist wanted to get ahead of it, why defend chopchop in the first place?

maybe im just talking myself out of an easy level 0 partner read, but it does feel a little too obvious

Alison and I had this conversation already. Well, I posed discussion questions to the thread and she gave the obvious answers. Bussing Chop is the "Level 1" play. Defending him is "Level 2." In either case, we can't really say for sure what his teammates would do and it's basically a straight wifom decision: which choice would they make?

[Sloonei]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

how's my rainbow?

it's fine. my rainbow would look different, but yours is in the ballpark of my mindset right now. i would have jack, epignois and kza lower. i would have myself, mac, and long con higher.

why would these names be lower?

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

perhaps

but if urist wanted to get ahead of it, why defend chopchop in the first place?

maybe im just talking myself out of an easy level 0 partner read, but it does feel a little too obvious

Alison and I had this conversation already. Well, I posed discussion questions to the thread and she gave the obvious answers. Bussing Chop is the "Level 1" play. Defending him is "Level 2." In either case, we can't really say for sure what his teammates would do and it's basically a straight wifom decision: which choice would they make?

i agree, but the specific conversation we're having about urist right now implies that urist is being pulled in two different directions. does he want to get ahead of his partner being outed wolf by pressuring him to out his message, or does he want to defend chopchop and shield him?

because when you say that urist possibly wanted to "get ahead" of his partner being outed, then i take that to mean that he wanted to bus his partner early on - but that seems to conflict with the mindset in his most recent posts

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

how's my rainbow?

it's fine. my rainbow would look different, but yours is in the ballpark of my mindset right now. i would have jack, epignois and kza lower. i would have myself, mac, and long con higher.

why would these names be lower?

jack unquestionably and confidently townreading me from early on in d1 even when i was being pressured gave me the concern that he was playing from a place of TMI. i have generally been lukewarm about his posting even though i think it's possible he's playing his town game

i have no reasons to townlean epignois or kza

[Sloonei]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

perhaps

but if urist wanted to get ahead of it, why defend chopchop in the first place?

maybe im just talking myself out of an easy level 0 partner read, but it does feel a little too obvious

Alison and I had this conversation already. Well, I posed discussion questions to the thread and she gave the obvious answers. Bussing Chop is the "Level 1" play. Defending him is "Level 2." In either case, we can't really say for sure what his teammates would do and it's basically a straight wifom decision: which choice would they make?

i agree, but the specific conversation we're having about urist right now implies that urist is being pulled in two different directions. does he want to get ahead of his partner being outed wolf by pressuring him to out his message, or does he want to defend chopchop and shield him?

because when you say that urist possibly wanted to "get ahead" of his partner being outed, then i take that to mean that he wanted to bus his partner early on - but that seems to conflict with the mindset in his most recent posts

I do not see these as conflicting mindsets. Hypothetically, a Mafia Urist can recognize that his partner has just slipped and so he decides to start interacting with him in whatever ways they can to appear not-aligned. Pressuring him to share his message is one way to do that. Defending him when the overwhelming trajectory of the thread is that he's going down is another way to do it.
And if he is using the outted message as justification for town-reading him, then I think it's difficult to say his mindset is even contradictory there. If anything, that's a consistent progression.

I am not committed to the idea that Urist is mafia. It's a possibility I'm considering. I'm assuming his alignment for the sake of discussion in this post, obviously.

[Urist]

for context, the reason i was pressuring chop to summarize his message is because i thought it was suspicious that spacedaisy was able to pick out the fact that esooa was missing from a reads list.
like if i get a list of 24 people, i'm not checking to make sure each and every one of them is there.
if chop had said something like "i said x, y, z, a, b, c were town and d, e, f, g were mafia and h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, q were null" i would be really suspicious of the daisy/chop potential big brain play.

[falcon45ca]

Epi's slanking has me perturbed

[staypositivefriend]

also, i am playing in a shorter and snippier way instead of writing long, well-thought analytical posts. it's just the type of playstyle i feel is gonna work best for me in this game

but at the same time, im an open book. feel free to ask me questions about anything if any of my reads are not clear

this could actually be an argument for urist not being teamed with chopchop, maybe? because i think urist was the one who prompted chopchop to post his message in the first place

meh. If ChopChop is outed then his teammates want to get out ahead of it. Pressuring him to post his message is an easy way to do that.

perhaps

but if urist wanted to get ahead of it, why defend chopchop in the first place?

maybe im just talking myself out of an easy level 0 partner read, but it does feel a little too obvious

Alison and I had this conversation already. Well, I posed discussion questions to the thread and she gave the obvious answers. Bussing Chop is the "Level 1" play. Defending him is "Level 2." In either case, we can't really say for sure what his teammates would do and it's basically a straight wifom decision: which choice would they make?

i agree, but the specific conversation we're having about urist right now implies that urist is being pulled in two different directions. does he want to get ahead of his partner being outed wolf by pressuring him to out his message, or does he want to defend chopchop and shield him?

because when you say that urist possibly wanted to "get ahead" of his partner being outed, then i take that to mean that he wanted to bus his partner early on - but that seems to conflict with the mindset in his most recent posts

I do not see these as conflicting mindsets. Hypothetically, a Mafia Urist can recognize that his partner has just slipped and so he decides to start interacting with him in whatever ways they can to appear not-aligned. Pressuring him to share his message is one way to do that. Defending him when the overwhelming trajectory of the thread is that he's going down is another way to do it.
And if he is using the outted message as justification for town-reading him, then I think it's difficult to say his mindset is even contradictory there. If anything, that's a consistent progression.

I am not committed to the idea that Urist is mafia. It's a possibility I'm considering. I'm assuming his alignment for the sake of discussion in this post, obviously.

i see your point now. there could exist a world where urist realized that his partner was outed, decided to ask him for his message to force interaction, and then decided later to shift his strategy to defense. the mindsets are not inherently contradictory, because they can exist in a sequence that checks out fairly reasonably

i am still getting the sense that this particular pairing is ~too easy~ - but i've been scumleaning urist for a lot of this game so i'm still working out what to do with that feeling

[DaughterOfOmega]

sloony i dont really have a thing on Rej, feels like a ton of pressure on him tho

[Sloonei]

sloony i dont really have a thing on Rej, feels like a ton of pressure on him tho

Are there any players you do have substantial thoughts on?

[DaughterOfOmega]

sloony i dont really have a thing on Rej, feels like a ton of pressure on him tho

Are there any players you do have substantial thoughts on?

you

[staypositivefriend]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

[Sloonei]

for context, the reason i was pressuring chop to summarize his message is because i thought it was suspicious that spacedaisy was able to pick out the fact that esooa was missing from a reads list.
like if i get a list of 24 people, i'm not checking to make sure each and every one of them is there.
if chop had said something like "i said x, y, z, a, b, c were town and d, e, f, g were mafia and h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, q were null" i would be really suspicious of the daisy/chop potential big brain play.

I thought it was at least partially clear from the context of the conversation around the claim that Daisy had received a limited list of players which should have included Esooa but did not. I do not remember specifics, but it seemed like the focus was on the BoKnows wagon.

[DaughterOfOmega]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

I am a nobody sadge

[Sloonei]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

[Sloonei]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

I am a nobody sadge

Let's hear it then!

[staypositivefriend]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

I am a nobody sadge

oh, do you scumread me? why?

[staypositivefriend]

it's very weird that nobody has pressured me or scumread me today

i didnt consider our early day interaction to count, since we signed that historic peace treaty