sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm
my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world
ah yes
wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:26 pm
in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty
but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?
if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night
yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?
hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill
idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense
yeah that does make sense - i think that vulgard decided to claim JK upon seeing that no one died, and that he was probably laying the groundwork for a fakeclaim later in the game prior to that point
i dont understand why that reasoning points to vulgard being a villager
Vulgard claimed jailkeeper to Marl in their night chat
their chat that happened at night
night being the time BEFORE the kill (or in this case, the lack of a kill) is posted
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm
my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world
ah yes
wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper
what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory
Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf
It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker
Well arete, vulgard physically claimed jailkeeper and I am the jailkeeper to go along with the fact that, you know, i roleblocked him and nobody died
so im not really in the market to explain why he did what he did. cause hes a wolf. i hope you come around and if not, i hope you take it well when its revealed (unless youre a wolf in which i admire the effort)
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:42 pm
based on the information that we have right now, it looks like vulgard saw that the kill was blocked and decided to fakeclaim JK with a guilty on c4. he tried to nudge marl into claiming for him so that he wouldn't have to do it himself
what does vulgard gain from putting c4 in this specific position in a world where they're teamed with each other? in a world where c4 gets chopped and they're a wolf, then the wolves wouldn't know who the real JK was the following night, and the JK would get another free visit, and vulgard would get no towncred from c4 dying
but in a world where c4 is a villager, it would be beneficial for c4 to get chopped and for marl to take heat the following day for guiltying a villager. or vulgard could have been hoping that marl would have continued to fakeclaim/cover for him even after the real JK outed w/a guilty on vulgard
if vulgard is a wolf who carried the kill he surely knew he was outed and it would be an understatement to say anything he said today should be taken with a grain of salt
him pushing marl to claim a guilty on c4 (when vulgard would *know* it's wrong) likely gets the real JK to claim and maybe even gets people to clear c4 a bit? I really don't think it's that weird of a play if c4 is a wolf, though it's not 100% or anything
that's reasonable - i just find it easy to see a world where vulgard felt that he could make a hail mary play by pushing marl into claiming for him
and if he was making a hail mary play, i find it more plausible that he would try to get marl to fakeclaim a guilty on a villager than fakeclaim a guilty on his partner
but i agree that it isnt explicitly clearing for c4, thinking about it more
It is also possible Vulgard was trying to say that dya was his redcheck when he said he didn't think I needed to say anything (as dya was already being wagoned.)
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm
my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world
ah yes
wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper
what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory
Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf
It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker
If Sunbae carried the nightkill he would know that he would be outed anyway as soon as the real jailkeeper claimed. In this world, he would know that your claim to have jailkept c4 was false (as that would not explain the failed nightkill). He could reasonably have deduced from your interactions with Vulgard today that Vulgard was the real jailkeeper (this is actually true even if Vul was fakeclaiming to you as VT -- although in this world it would be pretty obvious from the real non-Vul jailkeeper CCing Sunbae), and claimed a red on Vul so that when Vul claimed a red on him it would look reactionary.
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm
my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world
ah yes
wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper
what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory
Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf
It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker
If Sunbae carried the nightkill he would know that he would be outed anyway as soon as the real jailkeeper claimed. In this world, he would know that your claim to have jailkept c4 was false (as that would not explain the failed nightkill). He could reasonably have deduced from your interactions with Vulgard today that Vulgard was the real jailkeeper (this is actually true even if Vul was fakeclaiming to you as VT -- although in this world it would be pretty obvious from the real non-Vul jailkeeper CCing Sunbae), and claimed a red on Vul so that when Vul claimed a red on him it would look reactionary.
If vul is the real roleblocker his target is never sunbae Arete. Never.
arete, the big flaw in your logic is the fact that it seems very obvious to me that vulgard was trying to soft a guilty on c4 specifically
i dont think that vulgard makes the posts that he asks me: "are you still shielding c4? i need to know that before we talk further" if he wasn't trying to soft a guilty on c4. i dont think that vulgard (allegedly) spends the entirety of last night telling marl how scummy c4 is if he wasn't setting up to investigate c4, regardless of his alignment
arete could very easily be a wolf given that the only reason they've given me to townread them all game is the completely off-the-wall shit they've been consistently saying that makes me think "ok this just has to be a real thought"
Bro, I believe I've conceded your c4 stuff already but I'm fine with it. I not longer thing it necessarily means c4 is town and I have zero other reasons to town read them at this point. I need to actually spend time reading Vul at some point too, but I'll be sure to focus there as well and give some final thoughts on it.
Amy, good gif.
I think Nutellas reaction to today has been yuck fwiw but I'll look there in a bit too.Amy, nows the time to let me know how strong your nutella read is.
I'ma bail for a while (lots of posts used already). Gonna spend them all on game relevant content and entirely ignore any claim stuff from vulgard or whatever. I would suggest we go through the following things:
1. Iso vulgard and find the people he started turning on when others did.
2. Find a pretty solid group of villagers we trust. Need like 3-4 other than yourselves.
3. Sort dya because lost in all of the claim stuff is that Dya has shown approx zero care about being wrong in a similar way to Vulgard on the god read
4. Create a poe and start boxing wolves in
The time for "oh i know them meta read!" and "previous game differs!" lil cliquey reads to hit the bricks and "heres whats happened this game" reads to take over.
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm
Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.
if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today
like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'
I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm
Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.
if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today
like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'
I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line
This is like
Heavy sunk cost fallacy
You're tunneled
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:58 pm
Bro, I believe I've conceded your c4 stuff already but I'm fine with it. I not longer thing it necessarily means c4 is town and I have zero other reasons to town read them at this point. I need to actually spend time reading Vul at some point too, but I'll be sure to focus there as well and give some final thoughts on it.
Amy, good gif.
I think Nutellas reaction to today has been yuck fwiw but I'll look there in a bit too.Amy, nows the time to let me know how strong your nutella read is.
I'ma bail for a while (lots of posts used already). Gonna spend them all on game relevant content and entirely ignore any claim stuff from vulgard or whatever. I would suggest we go through the following things:
1. Iso vulgard and find the people he started turning on when others did.
2. Find a pretty solid group of villagers we trust. Need like 3-4 other than yourselves.
3. Sort dya because lost in all of the claim stuff is that Dya has shown approx zero care about being wrong in a similar way to Vulgard on the god read
4. Create a poe and start boxing wolves in
The time for "oh i know them meta read!" and "previous game differs!" lil cliquey reads to hit the bricks and "heres whats happened this game" reads to take over.
this is bs, I care about being wrong but I've been preoccupied today with walrus and a puzzlehunt
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm
Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.
if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today
like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'
I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line
This is like
Heavy sunk cost fallacy
You're tunneled
it's only sunk cost fallacy if the thing you think I'm optimizing for is 'not getting misexe'd if Vulgard is a wolf'
when actually the thing I'm optimizing for is 'correctly reading Vulgard'
look if he comes back and starts lolcatting or something then I'll stop defending him, but I think he's a villager and I'm not going to pretend I don't
I have found him as village despite an incorrect redcheck before, https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/sfol-5 ... -won/79225 (ignore the fact that I voted him, I was a 3p getting blackmailed by wrong villagers, the point is that I was correctly calling him a lock villager despite the redcheck)
Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it
i'm trying to think of if there are any worlds in which the wolves intentionally let me get a check off and they all require wolves to either be incompetent (impossible in this pl) or banking on their shot target getting saved (an absurd assumption to make)
think we were already here but i'm 100% comfortable calling the jk target a redcheck
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:11 pm
Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it
Sunbae, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolf Vulgard randomly hardclaiming Jailkeeper to Marl in the neighborhood, overnight, before he saw the night results, when the real-in-this-world Jailkeeper claiming at any point while Vulgard was still alive would force him into a thunderdome, I'm all ears, but that scenario seems nonexistent to me so help me see it
(it's possible that I'm wrong about the exact details of night actions/who was carrying the kill/etc. but I'm not really sure why you would falsely claim a redcheck on him for any reason other than being a wolf)
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:11 pm
Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it
Sunbae, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolf Vulgard randomly hardclaiming Jailkeeper to Marl in the neighborhood, overnight, before he saw the night results, when the real-in-this-world Jailkeeper claiming at any point while Vulgard was still alive would force him into a thunderdome, I'm all ears, but that scenario seems nonexistent to me so help me see it
(it's possible that I'm wrong about the exact details of night actions/who was carrying the kill/etc. but I'm not really sure why you would falsely claim a redcheck on him for any reason other than being a wolf)
w!vulgard claims jk to marl explicitly to pocket marl, not because he thinks any jk claim is going to happen anytime soon
w!vulgard clearly has no reason to suspect his kill will fail given that he didn't rb me, and thus expects at least one day phase where the jk hasn't claimed
w!vulgard pushes villagers in the night chat to influence marl's thinking and exert greater control over the gamestate
Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:14 pm
i'm trying to think of if there are any worlds in which the wolves intentionally let me get a check off and they all require wolves to either be incompetent (impossible in this pl) or banking on their shot target getting saved (an absurd assumption to make)
think we were already here but i'm 100% comfortable calling the jk target a redcheck
it seems pretty reckless to me either way but even moreso if they didn't even target you for the NK. They probably assumed the JK would be targeting aggressively and that vulgard (or whoever carried the nk, if we're being spicy) was therefore a very unlikely JK target.
then again visor and I once played a game where iirc the tracker was outed, stayed alive for awhile, the wolves did not always roleblock him, and he never outed his track results (at least one of which would have outed a wolf) before finally dying. No it's not a bitter memory, why do you ask?
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:18 amI've been thinking about Zack lately (no sexual).
and if sunbae's somehow a wolf we just instantly flip c4 and dya because that's like the only possible team where sunbae would see this as a necessary move
Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:14 pm
i'm trying to think of if there are any worlds in which the wolves intentionally let me get a check off and they all require wolves to either be incompetent (impossible in this pl) or banking on their shot target getting saved (an absurd assumption to make)
think we were already here but i'm 100% comfortable calling the jk target a redcheck
it seems pretty reckless to me either way but even moreso if they didn't even target you for the NK. They probably assumed the JK would be targeting aggressively and that vulgard (or whoever carried the nk, if we're being spicy) was therefore a very unlikely JK target.
then again visor and I once played a game where iirc the tracker was outed, stayed alive for awhile, the wolves did not always roleblock him, and he never outed his track results (at least one of which would have outed a wolf) before finally dying. No it's not a bitter memory, why do you ask?
no its even worse than that.
HE HAD REDCHECKS ON BOTH WOLVES AND HE CLAIMED HE HAD NO RESULTS
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:11 pm
Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it
Sunbae, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolf Vulgard randomly hardclaiming Jailkeeper to Marl in the neighborhood, overnight, before he saw the night results, when the real-in-this-world Jailkeeper claiming at any point while Vulgard was still alive would force him into a thunderdome, I'm all ears, but that scenario seems nonexistent to me so help me see it
(it's possible that I'm wrong about the exact details of night actions/who was carrying the kill/etc. but I'm not really sure why you would falsely claim a redcheck on him for any reason other than being a wolf)
The only world I can fathom where Vulgard is town is one where Amy is lying about being the tracker and when there was no kill tonight they knew that jailkeeper didn't target Amy so she made one up.
That's the world I can envision but it doesn't explain why Vulgard claimed JK to marl.
sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:15 pm
I've read through Dyslexicon's ISO and have a few small concerns which I'd like to clear up before settling on a conclusion.
1. Dyslexicon spent a bit of time expressing suspicion on Bronana for thinking their push on KZA was weak yet wanting some credit for KZA being a wolf. The biggest hangup from Dyslexicon's point of view seems to be that Bronana called a series of KZA's posts a "sequence" when the posts were pages apart. My concerns on this are twofold: a.) Expecting someone to "do due diligence" on someone that posted 10 times when skimming their iso and seeing the 3 posts in a row being very different while also dismissing the answer of "it was 3 posts in a row in an iso" is a bit unreasonable to me and b.) I'm confused why I did not suffer the same type of heat for my entrance post today. After all, Bronana certainly said more about KZA than I did so I find it mildly concerning (read: opportunistic to find a reason to push bronana instead of finding that specific thing to be a wolf thing).
2. There's a few posts in short order where Dyslexicon answers a "who you shooting if you have a gun" post with "Alison! If town, Bronana. If scum, Amy." while also saying "I could rather vote Amy right now than you (Alison)" a few posts later. Which seems kinda of concerning as it sounds like AmyScum is dependent on AlisonScum from Dyslexicon's point of view? Feel like if he's talking to Alison about not voting her he should be saying Bronana?
3. In the long list of individual reads, Dyslexicon says this about Vulgard: " Such analysis wow. If others think Vulgard is town, I'm ok with sleeping this. I did have a probably dumb tinfoil of Dya/Vulgard from two specific posts where Vulgard probably just misspoke to/about Dya. This will later turn out correct, but I will forget it. Jk jk. Probably town then." but when making a list Vulgard is second highest only behind Marl (for the derp). For someone as talented as Dyslexicon's posts make them seem to me, their best reads being a derp and someone they have a tinfoil on wolf just seems, not right?
Now, these things are just mild concerns overall and things I'm hoping to get cleared up because overall I thought the general approach and stream of consciousness posts that popped up were quite villagery (plus hally had as villager and they seem to know each other well). But you know, due diligence and all (plus hey, they wanted someone to actually read their posts as a whole!)
1. I see where you're coming from, but these are such minutiae that I find it a bit hard to believe Dizzy would construct such an elaborate point just to express suspicion on someone.
2. I have no idea how they reached that preflipped conclusion to begin with, tbh. I don't know what Dizzy was thinking. The POV makes no sense to me in general.
3. I actually agree on that point. Not sure if it makes Dizzy a wolf but these two reads don't make much sense to be the highest. Dizzy not having stronger ones is - basically what you said.
Overall I think the points you're raising are valid but my read on them is more like "Dizzy's POV makes no sense in these posts" which I lean toward being villagery and not wolfy. We did have KZA whose posts were just abysmal but Dizzy isn't KZA. Funnily enough I have a similar opinion about c4, I also think c4 is a villager but his POV makes no sense to me sometimes. I've already discussed this but nobody seemed interested in engaging with me on this.
weird post
does this spew dizzy v? sneaking that c4 line at the end and tying him to dizzy like that feels bad
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:18 amI've been thinking about Zack lately (no sexual).
