PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[nutella]

Okay.

1. I hardclaim VT. Unless someone else CC's this, Sunbae is just the jailkeeper. Besides, the solving they've been doing off my red flip (wrong, but we'll get to that later) looks like they genuinely believe they have a red on me and not like a wolf trying to exploit the no-kill to get me killed.
2. I was saved from a kill last night. That's the only explanation. I have no idea why the wolves didn't roleblock Amy. It's possible they didn't think they needed to, or it was WIFOM, or something else. In theory, a "no movement" result from Amy on a wolf would slightly improve said wolf's position.
3. The Marl and c4 thing you are completely misinterpreting. Marl also misunderstood me. We did claim jailkeeper to each other, but I thought I botched it and decided to go with "believe it or don't believe it" - type of posting with Marl in our night chat. I did think it might be useful to fake claim JK in case he turned out to be a wolf; I also considered softing JK today to better sell it. I've tried the whole game not to spew myself VT. At no point was I trying to soft a red on c4. The reason I asked SPF about her shield on c4 had to do with my reads, some of which I discussed overnight with Marl. My read on c4, I did discuss with him. I ended up thinking c4's posts were almost as bad as dya's and he didn't even try to save Alison when his top wolf suspect, dya, was pushing there. I thought that looked pretty terrible with Alison flipping V and I was going to push that. I asked SPF about her shield on c4 because I would find it suspicious if she were still shielding him given all that, and me and Marl both agreed to some levels of paranoia about SPF (though Marl straight up thinks she can be a wolf).
4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

I am town. I am not CCing Sunbae; the real JK should do that if he's fake. I don't know why Amy wasn't roleblocked, but I know I was attacked last night.

Stop solving around my red flip, because I am town and Sunbae got a save on me. That's a clear, not a redcheck. Though I understand why you think it's a redcheck, at least consider my point of view and try to solve with me. Not AROUND me, and certainly not around my red flip.

And next time, please let me explain myself instead of instantly making assumptions. Especially when I've barely even posted.

ah fuck i wanna believe this lol

we could just vote dya :wiwe

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've received a question that I will answer publicly:

"Is the mafia night kill mandatory?"

Yes, the mafia night kill is mandatory. The mafia may not elect to abstain from a night kill.

Please don't interact with this post. Thanks.

[Arete]

Vulgard is bleeding town right now

and I have no idea what happened last night because no possibility makes mechanical sense unless the wolves are completely incompetent

[nutella]

it's a bizarre choice on the wolves part if thats really what happened but like.... it's possible

[nutella]

@Marluxion can you clarify a bit about the c4 conversation/do you acknowledge you may have misinterpreted it?

[Marluxion]

Vulgard is bleeding town right now

and I have no idea what happened last night because no possibility makes mechanical sense unless the wolves are completely incompetent

Nobody living in this game is incompetent

[Marluxion]

@Marluxion can you clarify a bit about the c4 conversation/do you acknowledge you may have misinterpreted it?

Let me get out of bed and I'll transcribe and paraphrase the entire chat

[Arete]

okay so I have another theory

this theory is probably even dumber than the last theory

wolves killed Vulgard for ... reasons, probably a mix of 'thinking he was the jailkeeper' (tbc this isn't shade on Marl, he hasn't done anything that spewed himself VT so he would have been in the PR pool) + 'him and I being masons'

wolves expected Amy to be jailkept and so didn't feel the need to roleblock her (the other EXTREMELY tinfoil possibility that I don't actually believe at all is that specifically outed wolf is the wolf roleblocker and targeted Amy night 1, but was blocked by Sunbae (allowing Amy to get a check off))

alternatively wolves expected Amy to holster and decided to save the roleblock for tomorrow night? but that's really galaxy brain and unlikely

none of these theories make sense but he's a villager so there has to be something that explains it???

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

sorry for tunnelling you Sunbae, I got wrapped up in a specific narrative of Vulgard-being-the-jailkeeper and didn't really consider VTgard worlds

[nutella]

If vul is town and Amy wasn't targeted with either the kill or the RB, that means they were confident that they weren't who she'd pick to track

...or, I guess maybe banked on the wifom on her being jailkept, right thats a thing

hm

[nutella]

[VOTE: chloe] aubergine

@Chloe

hello hi what do you think of all this

im kinda at you rn regardless of vul tbh

where you at

[Vulgard]

I still think dya could flip town, but their flip is a foregone conclusion at this point. It resolves d2 wagons, part of d1 wagons, plus I'm not impressed by their d3. I was going to wait until dya posted d3 to see their thoughts about the situation, but... they had no real thoughts. I'm not going to shield them.

I think c4 looks much more terrible after yesterday and that's why I questioned SPF about her shield on him. He didn't defend Alison from his top wolfread. If he thought dya was bussing, he should've outright said so, and I don't remember him saying so. Besides, his ISO is only slightly above dya when it comes to pushes. Dya only pushed one person for two day phases and c4 only pushed dya. SPF's shield on him looks questionable to me and the "meta read" crutch only goes so far.

These thoughts are something I've also shared in my nightchat with Marl. Marl can verify these are not something I pulled out after I was "redchecked."

With Sunbae taken out of my PoE until/unless CC'd, it's Zack/Visor left in it, but Zack's JK soft today (?) was towny. Visor could go either way for me, but I am not interested in that angle at the moment. I'm going to sheep thread consensus, which seems to be that Visor is town.

My pushes yesterday being "weak" were because of my Gavial read being wrong. I don't understand why Sunbae claims I wasn't dejected about it. I absolutely was. It colored my entire dayphase, I didn't want to lead another misyeet so I took a back seat. I focused most of my efforts on debating dya vs Alison and Amy, which were the top three wagons.

Also, with me being the nightkill target, Marl's wolf equity skyrockets. His posts today are clear indicators of him believing my JK claim, even though I thought I botched it when I made it. I don't think his posting today has been wolfy at all, but it's something I'm considering. I honestly think his play with our nightchat in mind is out of his wolfrange, but I still know for a fact he believed me. As in, believed my JK claim. Based on posting alone, I'd say he's just a villager, but me being the nightkill target... Makes the most sense by Occam's Razor if Marl is just a wolf. His posts, especially today, are towny, so I'm only considering it.

The only other person I could see killing me is Arete, but Arete's town to me (and not because they're defending me). I was going to lock it in today after briefly discussing it with Marl and I am doing that now. Arete is town, never kill them.

With these two possibilities eliminated / made unlikely, I don't have any idea. I don't know who would've killed me. ...Chloe? Outside of Chloe, I don't think anyone else who's still alive has ever played with me before.

[outed wolf]

Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

[sunbae]

I'm going to be honest. I was really hoping Vulgard just countered me so I didn't have to worry anymore.

It is far too late for me to properly use critical thinking so this is me saying that I've seen Vulgard's post, I nod along to it, and I am looking forward into seeing where Vulgard's solving takes us today. If you are indeed town, I'm sorry for the quick trigger but hopefully you understand how from my pov it was accurate. We have 36 hours and I'm sure by the end of it we can get there if that's the solution.

Arete, I just want to say I acknowledge your post and will give it some thought. Outed Wolf being the wolf roleblocker + wolves dodging Amy is a scenario which is at least theoretically possible, especially if Marl is a wolf too (so they think vulgard is jk).

I'm going to get some sleep, leave my vote where it is (no maj yay!), and see where the thread is when I get up.

Vulgard, if you're town you have a ton of reactions of people that know something messy happened. So lmk what stands out to you.

[Vulgard]

When I consider posting, Chloe's the most likely wolf in this game to nightkill me. I've townread Tangrowth's posting really hard, but I agree that Chloe's posting has been... worse, by comparison.

Still waiting for SPF's take on c4. I think his day 2 was abysmal.

[Marluxion]

okay so I have another theory

this theory is probably even dumber than the last theory

wolves killed Vulgard for ... reasons, probably a mix of 'thinking he was the jailkeeper' (tbc this isn't shade on Marl, he hasn't done anything that spewed himself VT so he would have been in the PR pool) + 'him and I being masons'

wolves expected Amy to be jailkept and so didn't feel the need to roleblock her (the other EXTREMELY tinfoil possibility that I don't actually believe at all is that specifically outed wolf is the wolf roleblocker and targeted Amy night 1, but was blocked by Sunbae (allowing Amy to get a check off))

alternatively wolves expected Amy to holster and decided to save the roleblock for tomorrow night? but that's really galaxy brain and unlikely

none of these theories make sense but he's a villager so there has to be something that explains it???

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

sorry for tunnelling you Sunbae, I got wrapped up in a specific narrative of Vulgard-being-the-jailkeeper and didn't really consider VTgard worlds

Even in this theory there is no reason to risk it. Rber can still just sit on Amy in the case they aren't jailkept.

[Marluxion]

Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

There are no other targets to roleblock. It's not viable at all imo

[outed wolf]

I don't think it's GOOD

But I can see wolves believing that amy would be jailkept

[Vulgard]

I'll go through people's reactions to this situation. Chloe's complete lack of a reaction looks bad, but is explainable by her just... not being there.

Most of you (except Arete) straight up assumed I was just mafia carrying the kill. I actually think this should make it even more likely I'm town. In a world where I'm a wolf, my partners probably don't just dunk on me. In that world, I am deep. They have nothing to gain by dunking on me, because Sunbae gets all the credit anyway. Wolves probably called me mafia too if they were in the thread.

[nutella]

oh.... lol

okay chloe AND marl are wolves thats fun


(seriously reread marl's posts today now assuming vulgard is truthful and it's uhhh somethin)

[Vulgard]

I don't think it's GOOD

But I can see wolves believing that amy would be jailkept

I think that's the most likely re: "why not Amy."

[Arete]

okay so here's why this post ~always comes from town!Vulgard

Okay.

1. I hardclaim VT. Unless someone else CC's this, Sunbae is just the jailkeeper. Besides, the solving they've been doing off my red flip (wrong, but we'll get to that later) looks like they genuinely believe they have a red on me and not like a wolf trying to exploit the no-kill to get me killed.

to a certain extent I gave Vulgard an out by coming up with the Sunbae theory, obviously my intention wasn't 'come up with an excuse he could use as wolf' but nonetheless that was an effect of what I did, and he didn't take it, he instead went with the VT possibility even though that's less believable.

worth noting that in a previous game where Vul was redchecked as a wolf (parity copped as unaligned with a villager) he was basically like 'katze scum vote katze' (katze was the villager) and then when someone brought up the possibility of a framing effect (which existed in the setup) he was like 'I guess kat was framed' once other people started to be like 'kat was framed' https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/fol-fo ... 82831/2991 -- a major contrast with his approach here

2. I was saved from a kill last night. That's the only explanation. I have no idea why the wolves didn't roleblock Amy. It's possible they didn't think they needed to, or it was WIFOM, or something else. In theory, a "no movement" result from Amy on a wolf would slightly improve said wolf's position.

This is a minor point but assuming the wolfteam is mechanically competent they would just have the roleblocker carry both the kill and the roleblock, which doesn't seem to have occurred to Vulgard in this post when he talks about a wolf trying to get a no movement result to improve their position.

3. The Marl and c4 thing you are completely misinterpreting. Marl also misunderstood me. We did claim jailkeeper to each other, but I thought I botched it and decided to go with "believe it or don't believe it" - type of posting with Marl in our night chat. I did think it might be useful to fake claim JK in case he turned out to be a wolf; I also considered softing JK today to better sell it. I've tried the whole game not to spew myself VT. At no point was I trying to soft a red on c4. The reason I asked SPF about her shield on c4 had to do with my reads, some of which I discussed overnight with Marl. My read on c4, I did discuss with him. I ended up thinking c4's posts were almost as bad as dya's and he didn't even try to save Alison when his top wolf suspect, dya, was pushing there. I thought that looked pretty terrible with Alison flipping V and I was going to push that. I asked SPF about her shield on c4 because I would find it suspicious if she were still shielding him given all that, and me and Marl both agreed to some levels of paranoia about SPF (though Marl straight up thinks she can be a wolf).

this is just a town!Vul thought process, and I totally believe that the c4 thing was a misunderstanding (which basically makes sense to me) -- this also explains why Vul just left the thread when Marl claimed, if he wasn't expecting Marl to claim then he would feel more inclination to do things like 'sleep' and less inclination to do things like 'stick around and watch the fireworks'

4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

I find his comments about thinking Bronana was softing a red on Sunbae to be completely believable because I thought the same thing at that time -- he could technically be pocketing me with this since I mentioned it in the thread overnight, but his posting at the time makes sense when viewed from that PoV. 'Bronana was softing a red on Sunbae' is a perspective he obviously wouldn't have as wolf unless the factional kill target was randomly Sunbae

also the thing about how he was excited because it would mean the nightchat got somewhere is super villagery, don't @ me

I am town. I am not CCing Sunbae; the real JK should do that if he's fake. I don't know why Amy wasn't roleblocked, but I know I was attacked last night.

Stop solving around my red flip, because I am town and Sunbae got a save on me. That's a clear, not a redcheck. Though I understand why you think it's a redcheck, at least consider my point of view and try to solve with me. Not AROUND me, and certainly not around my red flip.

And next time, please let me explain myself instead of instantly making assumptions. Especially when I've barely even posted.

I don't actually have a response to this but if I'm dissecting this post I might as well leave it in

[outed wolf]

Iirc the jk beats the RB so it's even more suboptimal to not RB Amy

But idk my bff jill

[outed wolf]

So you're convinced vul is a wolf marl?

[Marluxion]

So you're convinced vul is a wolf marl?

i am, nothing else makes any sense
like
even remotely

[Marluxion]

[VOTE: Vulgard] aubergine

like
The ONLY mechanical qualm i have
is why wouldn't two seperate people execute the kill and roleblock

putting both on one just has this risk happen?
if ONE person roleblocks amy
and the OTHER executes a kill

Wolves never end in this scenario
Either the roleblock on amy goes through
or the kill goes through, whoever it's targetting, because then there is at least plausible deniability

the only explanation is if the wolf thinks they are so incredibly deep that they wont be targetted for jailkeeper in any universe
vulgard more or less fits that bill to the T imo

[Vulgard]

I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.

[Marluxion]

I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.

Mechanics do not lie
silver tongued people who attempt to pocket me using my own damn neighborhood chat do

[Marluxion]

i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town

[nutella]

- marl fpses a claim in neighbor chat baiting vul into claiming jk
- marl nks vulgard
- kill doesn't go through
- marl acts surprised at sod that theyre both alive which..?? it's like a "wooo vul isnt maf who tricked me" but the perspective seems off for that somehow. this is big thonk tbh
- the shifty eyes exchange happens, vul supposedly referring to zack's sunbae vote but marl interprets it as on c4 for [black box neighbor chat reasons]
- marl claims, getting sunbae to out and painting vulgard as the "real" fakeclaimer
- marl completely goes HARD in the paint on vulgard being outed (i mean i wont deny i fully believed it too and stuff and it could be real) and tries to persuade arete and stuff
- marl is now going on and on about how ridiculous and unthinkable it would be for the wolf team to have not blocked amy, wow that could never happen in a million years

[Marluxion]

also vulgards last long rant was on c4 and spf specifically
vulgard had said dya is either a wolf kamikaze-ing for alison or their posting is so unbelievably bad on alison that it wraps around to v

he talks about SPF and C4 a lot after that, going through the possibilities of each being w
he says v/v is unlikely because spf's shielding of c4 makes very little sense to him
he does think it is possible that spf is a wolf and c4 is being pocketed by her shield

(these are all extremely abridged, vuglard says many words but i can't copypaste obviously)

[Vulgard]

i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town

It... didn't even cross my mind that the post was a wolf writing a goodbye to me.

[Marluxion]

i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town

It... didn't even cross my mind that the post was a wolf writing a goodbye to me.

yes because you knew i was town

[Marluxion]

- marl fpses a claim in neighbor chat baiting vul into claiming jk
- marl nks vulgard
- kill doesn't go through
- marl acts surprised at sod that theyre both alive which..?? it's like a "wooo vul isnt maf who tricked me" but the perspective seems off for that somehow. this is big thonk tbh
- the shifty eyes exchange happens, vul supposedly referring to zack's sunbae vote but marl interprets it as on c4 for [black box neighbor chat reasons]
- marl claims, getting sunbae to out and painting vulgard as the "real" fakeclaimer
- marl completely goes HARD in the paint on vulgard being outed (i mean i wont deny i fully believed it too and stuff and it could be real) and tries to persuade arete and stuff
- marl is now going on and on about how ridiculous and unthinkable it would be for the wolf team to have not blocked amy, wow that could never happen in a million years

there is no universe in which i am mafia here
my posting today is actually just miles outside of my wolfrange

even if vulgard is a villager (which is so unbelievably unlikely since it means the roleblocker just holstered for ???? reasons) i am never a wolf here

[Marluxion]

i miss chloe where'd she go

[nutella]

marl continuing to play up the "waaaaaaaaa i got pocketed in neighbor chat, curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal" schtick doesn't feel genuine

[Marluxion]

marl continuing to play up the "waaaaaaaaa i got pocketed in neighbor chat, curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal" schtick doesn't feel genuine

if you dont think i've been genuine today, you wouldn't know genuine if you got ran over by a truck hauling 40 tons of genuine

[Marluxion]

Believe me
I would rather live in the universe where vulgard is a villager
I dont want this any more than you do

It just doesn't make any mechanical sense

[Marluxion]

like
I guess the kill could have been on vulgard and then they fished for a roleblock to try to stop the jailkeeper? For ??????? reasons?
but that play is so unbelievably bad that it just makes absolutely no sense

[outed wolf]

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine

[nutella]

Believe me
I would rather live in the universe where vulgard is a villager
I dont want this any more than you do

It just doesn't make any mechanical sense

there are like 3 different explanations that have been floated
- wolves didn't expect to be tracked correctly by amy
- wolves figured amy might be jked anyway as protection (the 50/50 wifom plan that arete originally posted about) and just gambled on it
- the specific visor rb scenario

like, at least acknowledge it's possible even if you think it's suboptimal or w/e

[Arete]

I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.

Mechanics do not lie
silver tongued people who attempt to pocket me using my own damn neighborhood chat do

I went through my entire game history and marked every game that I could remember where someone falsely claimed a redcheck on a villager (not counting games where it was a meme or a reactiontest). Some of them are for circumstances that don't apply here (framers, misreading their role PM, being a wolf, etc.), but not all of them.

It's ten out of eighty-one, five if you only count the ones where a villager was the one claiming the check. Which isn't a lot, per se, but there are a lot more fake redchecks on the list than times-I-misread-Vulgard.

[Marluxion]

Believe me
I would rather live in the universe where vulgard is a villager
I dont want this any more than you do

It just doesn't make any mechanical sense

there are like 3 different explanations that have been floated
- wolves didn't expect to be tracked correctly by amy
- wolves figured amy might be jked anyway as protection (the 50/50 wifom plan that arete originally posted about) and just gambled on it
- the specific visor rb scenario

like, at least acknowledge it's possible even if you think it's suboptimal or w/e

It is not impossible the wolves went full pepega and made nearly gamethrowing actions for reasons beyond our mortal comprehension, yes

but occams razor still just says vulgard is a wolf

[Marluxion]

whatever
we dont even have to go vulgard today
there are two other wolves, three if vulgard is somehow town

i want to talk to chloe and i want dyachei to talk more because they've been extremely quiet other than just hopping on whatever bandwagon was going today without even giving their thougths

[nutella]

i think chloe and dya are both extremely likely wolves here regardless of the truth in marl/vul

[Arete]

[VOTE: Chloe] aubergine

I think Chloe completely dodging the thread for ten hours (ten hours that were dominated by a probable V/V thunderdome) is not great and her mindset w.r.t. Alison yesterday is also not great

(like not that she would never be busy for ten hours but it's the ten hours directly following SoD)

[bronana]

so there's always one wolf in [marluxion, vulgard] yeah?

also vulgards last long rant was on c4 and spf specifically
vulgard had said dya is either a wolf kamikaze-ing for alison or their posting is so unbelievably bad on alison that it wraps around to v

he talks about SPF and C4 a lot after that, going through the possibilities of each being w
he says v/v is unlikely because spf's shielding of c4 makes very little sense to him
he does think it is possible that spf is a wolf and c4 is being pocketed by her shield

(these are all extremely abridged, vuglard says many words but i can't copypaste obviously)

i was the bottom-most name in vulgard's POE and he didn't talk about me? he didn't talk about visor or sunbae either?

[VOTE: chloe] aubergine

[Marluxion]

[VOTE: Chloe] aubergine

I think Chloe completely dodging the thread for ten hours (ten hours that were dominated by a probable V/V thunderdome) is not great and her mindset w.r.t. Alison yesterday is also not great

(like not that she would never be busy for ten hours but it's the ten hours directly following SoD)

i have no idea what's going on with chloes alignment but it isn't in her nature to just ghost a thread either way
she either got distracted or busy irl or forgot or something
i want to wait before confbiasing her in my mind as a wolf until she actually posts

[Marluxion]

so there's always one wolf in [marluxion, vulgard] yeah?

also vulgards last long rant was on c4 and spf specifically
vulgard had said dya is either a wolf kamikaze-ing for alison or their posting is so unbelievably bad on alison that it wraps around to v

he talks about SPF and C4 a lot after that, going through the possibilities of each being w
he says v/v is unlikely because spf's shielding of c4 makes very little sense to him
he does think it is possible that spf is a wolf and c4 is being pocketed by her shield

(these are all extremely abridged, vuglard says many words but i can't copypaste obviously)

i was the bottom-most name in vulgard's POE and he didn't talk about me? he didn't talk about visor or sunbae either?

[VOTE: chloe] aubergine

first of all
no
if vulgard is town i am also town
and he did talk about you, mostly in response to me saying i thought your overnight post was v towny and he disagreed
he just didn't go at length on you like he did spf and c4 near the end of the night

[nutella]

i dont want to completely confbias myself into a w/w pairing with neither confirmed so im not gonna do a deep dive yet but upon a quick glance chloe/marl interactions are kinda weirdchamp!

[outed wolf]

what if: marl w thought vul was the jk

shot him

sunbae accidentally saved the day