PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[Vulgard]

If c4 doesn't vote dyachei with me after entering the thread again, he's just a wolf. He's thought dya was mafia for two day phases yet voted me without giving it much scrutiny and before I could say anything.

[Vulgard]

He's also voting me WITH DYA right now. And dya's voting WITH HIM, even though they both wolfread each other. The other two current voters are both town PRs, one 100% and the other 99,99%, so I'm not questioning that. C4 and dya voting together on me and not even considering a world I'm V is bizarre, though. They had wolfread each other, but then piled on me when Sunbae revealed the JK, and didn't question the fact the other was voting there without any doubts.

[Vulgard]

I never thought I would say this but I want Tangrowth back in Chloe's slot because I feel like Tangrowth would be here now to talk to me.

[Vulgard]

I'm willing to sheep thread consensus on Visor being town but reevaluate if he lives too long.

[Vulgard]

Wait, I've just realized what I said. Chloe, if you read this, I'm sorry.

[Amy]

caught up

not sure what i think of things beyond "sunbae's just real"

Briefly entertaining a v!Vulgard v!Marl world: wolves would have to NK Vulgard AND not roleblock me. Wolf roleblocker would presumably perform the kill (i.e. it's not Dizzy).

Logic of "Marl's claim of a redcheck on c4 was known by wolves to be incorrect" holds; spf probably still clearable as a villager. I'm still unwilling to consider Zack/Visor/nutella; if that winds up being this game's f3 then lolme.

I... don't really know what to do with Chloe in the world where the FoL pile really is a pile of villagers. All the same riders remain on dya/c4's alignment. Really I'm not sure this scenario does a ton to actual reads except force people to consider them independent of any read on Vulgard, which is... probably a better look for Chloe? Maybe a worse look for dya.

...should I be reconsidering Arete in a v!Vulgard world? A wolf wouldn't shield a villager THIS hard, right? Like... Arete's entire gameplan would have to have been refuge in audacity, but I feel like going THIS hard on townshielding someone who otherwise might just get steamrolled as a much-needed exe feels... silly. Think I've talked myself into "Arete is just v" but I'm glad I at least thought about it.

[Vulgard]

Take: What if wolves were trying to roleblock the jailkeeper instead, because they were worried the JK would hit their kill carrier? In that case, they don't target Amy because they're worried she'll be jailkept, but they still try to roleblock the jailkeeper because they're afraid of one of the wolves getting caught by them. If Amy gets a result, JK didn't target them. If Amy gets no result, whoever they tried to roleblock isn't the jailkeeper.

Idk how likely that is but it just occurred to me. In this scenario, the wolves would have to all be likely JK targets, but I don't think it's impossible. Suboptimal, maybe. You could argue they should just go for Amy if they are trying to roleblock the JK. But they went for me instead.

Or they just thought I'm JK and wanted to get rid of me while ensuring I don't catch them in return. Marl believing I'm JK should make him a wolf in that world but his handling of today's situation makes me seriously doubt that possibility.

I think I get attacked in a world where wolves think I'm JK and they are trying to kill me first. In that world it's possible I also get roleblocked to prevent their kill from getting stopped. It's possible they thought me stopping their kill was more likely than Amy tracking the nightkiller.

Just my theory.

[Marluxion]

Take: What if wolves were trying to roleblock the jailkeeper instead, because they were worried the JK would hit their kill carrier? In that case, they don't target Amy because they're worried she'll be jailkept, but they still try to roleblock the jailkeeper because they're afraid of one of the wolves getting caught by them. If Amy gets a result, JK didn't target them. If Amy gets no result, whoever they tried to roleblock isn't the jailkeeper.

Idk how likely that is but it just occurred to me. In this scenario, the wolves would have to all be likely JK targets, but I don't think it's impossible. Suboptimal, maybe. You could argue they should just go for Amy if they are trying to roleblock the JK. But they went for me instead.

Or they just thought I'm JK and wanted to get rid of me while ensuring I don't catch them in return. Marl believing I'm JK should make him a wolf in that world but his handling of today's situation makes me seriously doubt that possibility.

I think I get attacked in a world where wolves think I'm JK and they are trying to kill me first. In that world it's possible I also get roleblocked to prevent their kill from getting stopped. It's possible they thought me stopping their kill was more likely than Amy tracking the nightkiller.

Just my theory.

that would prob imply someone like dyachei was carrying the kill but like
why

surely wolves have SOMEONE deeper than dyachei?

[Vulgard]

I have no idea, I'm just trying to rationalize it and "wolves think I'm JK and they think I'm more likely to catch them than the tracker" is the best idea I have. The alternative is that either you or Arete are wolves (or both lmao) but I think you're both villagers.

[Dyslexicon]

This train was supposed to have wifi, but it doesn’t work, shockingly.

Will try to get caught up on phone. I see there is stuff.

[dyachei]

So if it's not alison, I want to look at the people who didn't really have a conviction on her slot

I... would expect town!dya to do that overnight. And to start today with different posting.

Marl claiming JK on c4

Amy has the towniest reactions to the initial shitshow (Marl claiming JK on c4). But she's already an IC so w/e.

C4/SPF is complicated and depends on who was actually carrying the kill. I think a SPF/c4 world has TMI on c4 not being outed (not carrying the kill), though. C4's reaction to it is like "who the fuck would kill me" which doesn't sound very concerned. And SPF reluctantly admits c4 might be mafia after all. I'd expect more extreme reactions from them if c4 was actually the carrier.

Zack is completely uninterested in this conundrum and talks about Dya first thing. Either he's town thinking Marl's claim is fake or mafia with TMI.

Visor... just tells people not to claim early. Does not consider the claim being fake, either.

C4/SPF not having strong reactions to the claim. Zack ignoring it straight up. Visor complaining about the early claim. Yeah, nobody believed the claim. Except maybe Visor. The reactions are so weak. Nutella's reaction by voting c4 stands out a bit but that's also not very strong. I can't extrapolate anything from this, it's impossible they are all wolves with TMI. Probably not Marl's partners, though, if Marl is a wolf? This is a reach, but if Marl had his partners in the thread while claiming, he'd have them support him.

Sunbae claiming JK on me

Sunbae's claim is actually very towny from the start. If this get CC'd the CCer better have a good case for themselves.

C4 and Marl's reaction is basically the same. "WHAT?" Visor's reaction is actually really good here. He doesn't assume I'm mafia, for one, and thinks about other mechanical possibilities.

Marl goes all in on me being a wolf here and accuses Arete of being my partner. ...I actually think it's TOWN indicative of him. This is extremely opportunistic of him, but hear me out here. I really don't think wolf!Marl instantly take the opportunity to chain two misyeets here. Even if he gets both misyeets, this makes him look absolutely terrible. His reaction fits the bill of "townie who feels betrayed and assumes the worst straight up." The post pinging me afterward about my effort in the mason chat is even townier. Wolf Marl has no reason to post this since he already pretends I'm a wolf. It all reads like "villager who thinks he was betrayed." And since he has a tendency to tunnel, his insistence on me being a wolf here is something I don't find surprising.

Yeah, no, his posting continues to be exactly what I'd expect from villager!him. He even seems to forget the postcap exists and screamsa for like 30 posts. This isn't wolf!Marl.

#2860 is another post from him I find super unlikely to come from a wolf POV. This isn't a thought that comes to wolf!Marl, since wolf!Marl knows I'm VT and Sunbae is trueclaiming.

SPF trying to figure out whether I'm JK or not could go either way. Her trying to figure out what I was trying to do with c4 looks decent but I think it's in her wolfrange.

Dya's posts are really 'eh' throughout. They don't seem very invested in this conundrum. They sound so... deflated throughout today. I'd warrant a guess they expect to go regardless of me being "redchecked" and they've lost the WiM to play. I don't think v!dya who was wrong on Alison posts like this today, I just don't.

Visor and Zack talking about something completely unrelated is wolfy. Visor worldbuilding around my red flip before I even get the chance to defend myself is wolfy. They don't seem to care about me ever posting today, they are setting themselves up for the future. I don't sense a villagery inquisitiveness in their posting. Visor looks better than Zack because at least he's looking into mechanical possibilities. That said, wolves can easily do this as well. The one thing that looks good for Visor is that he reaches the conclusion vul/c4/dya. I think c4 is a wolf and I think dya is a wolf as well. The third isn't me, though; if anything I'd say it's SPF for shielding c4 and pretending to be pocketed.

If dya/c4/spf (spf only if c4 is actually a wolf) is not the solve, I'd take another look at Zack/Visor. Zack just isn't giving a damn about the situation. Meanwhile, if that solve is wrong, then Visor created a PoE of three villas while preflipping me red. I realize he's now considering other worlds but that should still say a lot. SPF's posting have been alright but I think her wolfrange is broad enough to accomodate them.

Note that if c4 is a villager then SPF is much more likely to be a villager. This doesn't work in reverse, though.

I'd say Chloe is a wolf but I still think Tangrowth's posting was super super towny. I am not convinced. Her not talking about the situation at all could be explained by her not being there. Which means I think it's NAI.

Why not anyone else?

Nutella - I really think she's just threadspewed at this point. And I've also heard she has a polarized meta, so I trust that. And I've vibed with her posting multiple times throughout the game.
Dizzy - Doesn't treat Gavial like that as a wolf. Doesn't play the same idgaf way like his partner KZA does; Dizzy entered the thread claiming wolf. KBA entered the thread openly shitposting. I don't think two wolves do this, then proceed not to interact with each other, etc. it doesn't make much sense.
Marl - I think his reactions, of all people's, are the towniest here. If he's a wolf pushing agenda and I'm getting snowed, well done. I really think his posts here don't come from a wolf POV. His progression tracks when you assume "villager who feels betrayed and gets tunneled."
Arete - Locking this as V. I am not bothering to explain any further, Arete is just town.
Amy - Tracker.
Sunbae - JK unless CC'd. The only person who could CC this at this point is Chloe I think. In which case, lmao.

why the fuck would I do anything overnight in a light game

i also have a puzzlehunt this weekend. I spent all my time off from this game there

[Vulgard]

I'd expect you to feel a sense of obligation to do it? You spent two days tunneling a VT and all you can do is shrug?
Irl excuses aside, your posting today has been uninspiring. You not having anything to say to this massive post I wrote, other than responding to a singular point I made against you (and the weakest one at that), only solidifies my view.

[dyachei]

im not shrugging, I'm just not putting in huge amounts of energy to a light game. there's a fucking difference

[dyachei]

SO i looked through tangy's d1 posts (and lost my quotes somehow) and I get the feeling she was pocketing nutella on that readthrough. she starts with a slight wolf read but quickly changes to a v read and not just any v read, but the highest v read. Due to meta. Also of note is she was pretty wishy washy on alison, and as I mentioned that was something I am looking at today. People that just didn't take much of a stance.

looking at gavial and kza, she had a light v read on kza for nothing and wanted gav or arete over kza. voted gav reluctantly - clearly preferred arete

I need to look through some of chloe's posts next, but so far not so good with the benefit of hindsight

[Dyslexicon]

Wait wait wait

@Vulgard claimed jk to Marl in the night times, correct?

[dyachei]

@Chloe what's your read on marl now?

[Vulgard]

Wait wait wait

@Vulgard claimed jk to Marl in the night times, correct?

Marl claimed it to me first, then rescinded, then I claimed it to him.

[Dyslexicon]

Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???

[Dyslexicon]

Wait wait wait

@Vulgard claimed jk to Marl in the night times, correct?

Marl claimed it to me first, then rescinded, then I claimed it to him.

So if you are town, Marl should be scum here almost always.

Unless scum randomly decided to kill someone just banking on them being JK rather than confirmed Amy.

Like hello?

[Dyslexicon]

Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it

The answer to this is literally just Marl is wolf and believed Vul’s claim.

The rest follows.

[outed wolf]

Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???

I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

[dyachei]

Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???

I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

I mean, is that the ONLY case? I havent read through his posts, but could someone have read PR vibes into it and gone after him without marl?

[Dyslexicon]

Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???

I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

I mean, is that the ONLY case? I havent read through his posts, but could someone have read PR vibes into it and gone after him without marl?

Enough “vibes” to not just kill the PR they know of, which is Amy?

And if they did have a PR read then still: Why not just kill Amy and block the PR read.

Fact is: Amy was neither killed or blocked.

Solution: Marl is wolf, said Vul is JK, so mafia targeted Vul with both.

[Dyslexicon]

You all are tripping.

Marl is just a wolf.
This explains why Amy was left alone.
They needed to block and kill Vul as they thought he was JK.
Sunbae coming in clutch.
Marl’s posting bad. His fake on c4 was lackluster, entertaining how c4 could be the kill rather than doing a real redcheck bait.
His derp could even be “2 last mafia” because he’s the third lololololol. That is the clownery I’m here for.

Marl wolf.

[outed wolf]

I mean either vulgard is a wolf who got blocked

Or he's a villager who got saved

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

We just have to decide if we think vulgard is wolf RB that got blocked (most likely wolf role if he's a wolf) which is why Amy isn't blocked

Or if marluxion shot vulgard because he thought he claimed jailkeeper and potentially roleblocked him too (cause didn't RB Amy)

[Dyslexicon]

I mean, it could still be Vul, but then he would have to be exactly blocker and do both actions, cause if not - why didn’t they block or kill Amy? Maybe holster thinking Amy would holster. But... I just think Vul is townier. Marl being wolf explains this neatly.

[outed wolf]

Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

[Dyslexicon]

I mean either vulgard is a wolf who got blocked

Or he's a villager who got saved

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

We just have to decide if we think vulgard is wolf RB that got blocked (most likely wolf role if he's a wolf) which is why Amy isn't blocked

Or if marluxion shot vulgard because he thought he claimed jailkeeper and potentially roleblocked him too (cause didn't RB Amy)

Exactly. Why are the votes everywhere else. Lol.

@Vulgard Why did you fake claim JK to Marl?

@Marluxion Why did you fake claim and rescind to Vul?

[outed wolf]

If I was a wolf and I shot not Amy I would RB Amy, but I understand if you are already betting on Amy being jked that you wouldn't necessarily RB her

But then, I guess you holster cause you don't want to block the jk from blocking amy? Or something ? Idk

[Dyslexicon]

Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

He gets it. But I bet he’s the wolf tbh. But I’ll catch up fully first.

But this is essentially a real difference check between the two, barring mafia team decided to go heavily off script.

[outed wolf]

Either way there's a wolf in vul/marl

[outed wolf]

Agreed.

[Dyslexicon]

If I was a wolf and I shot not Amy I would RB Amy, but I understand if you are already betting on Amy being jked that you wouldn't necessarily RB her

But then, I guess you holster cause you don't want to block the jk from blocking amy? Or something ? Idk

Or you block Vul as you’re afraid they may JK the kill which would be a nightmare for scum.

A track is quite low risk for a mafia team of three.

[Dyslexicon]

New town core: Amy, Sunbae, Visor, Zack, Arete, and maybe others, don’t remember.

Will read the rest

[outed wolf]

Sure that is also possible.

I think I lean toward marl being a wolf rn but I need to sleep on it and throw some darts with others on it a bit

Vulgards posting where he goes nowhere with 2000 words isn't exactly inspiring confidence

[Dyslexicon]

Maybe be it’s Vul, but it’s always one of them.

[outed wolf]

With that known that there's 1 in that grouping, we can possibly do some solving outside of that but I wager our wolf guesses will all be in C4 Chloe dya

[dyachei]

hold on I'm missing something. what stops the wolves from PR reading vulgard and not have it claimed to them?

[outed wolf]

That is theoretically possible sure, but I would guess unlikely

I would expect many more kills before vulgard

[Dyslexicon]

I even said “thats a type of read I see newcomb make that I sponge to great success” and, truth be told, was the deciding factor in me jailkeeping there. Dizzy goat.

@Dyslexicon always with the clutch plays

Possibly by accident, cause I think Marl could be the wolf.

[Dyslexicon]

hold on I'm missing something. what stops the wolves from PR reading vulgard and not have it claimed to them?

Nothing.
But they would have to PR read so strongly they decide to prioritize over Amy.

What points towards this?

[Marluxion]

You all are tripping.

Marl is just a wolf.
This explains why Amy was left alone.
They needed to block and kill Vul as they thought he was JK.
Sunbae coming in clutch.
Marl’s posting bad. His fake on c4 was lackluster, entertaining how c4 could be the kill rather than doing a real redcheck bait.
His derp could even be “2 last mafia” because he’s the third lololololol. That is the clownery I’m here for.

Marl wolf.

absolutely not
i am a wolf in no universe here
anyone who has played with me in the past will tell you i'm 10,000 years outside of my scumrange
AND EVEN IF THAT WAS THE CASE
WHY WAS AMY NOT RBD

it doesn't add up

[Marluxion]

Maybe be it’s Vul, but it’s always one of them.

ABSOLUTELY NOT
regardless of vulgard's alignment i am town here

stop trying to force a dichotomy for no reason

[dyachei]

hold on I'm missing something. what stops the wolves from PR reading vulgard and not have it claimed to them?

Nothing.
But they would have to PR read so strongly they decide to prioritize over Amy.

What points towards this?

idk, just thinking through it

tracker seems like a lower priority than jker with 3 wolves alive

[Marluxion]

Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

I'm not pushing for vulgard to die anymore
I'm pushing for dyachei to die

[Dyslexicon]

Hmm. But they will already be incentivized to not kill Amy cause she may be jailkept. So in that case, kill the most likely jail keeper, which could randomly be Vulgard. But it does still stink for Marl if Vul is town.

But maybe Vul is not even town.
Arete is just ... it’s so loud.

[Vulgard]

I fakeclaimed to Marl because if he was wolf I wanted him to think I'm the jailkeeper. I originally didn't plan to do this, but after he fakeclaimed to me, I decided to fakeclaim right back after he rescinded. I thought this would make it even more likely to him that I'm the real jailkeeper, because then I could be like "oh I knew all along."

I thought I botched it, though. ...Guess not, if Marl is a wolf? But I think his posting today has been towny. What Dizzy's saying makes sense to me but I socially don't think Marl's a wolf.

[Marluxion]

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

Or literally anyone with a townread on him
The only question becomes why was amy not roleblocked in that case

Vulgard was town to almost everyone yesterday and him calling alison town probably told the wolves he was never getting ML'd even if he wasn't a PR

[Marluxion]

I'm actually rescinding townread on dizzy
Dizzy wolf makes the hally kill make a lot more sense after some of hally's posts at eod d1 and them trying to force a dichotomy between me and vulgard when there isn't one is wolfy as hell

[Vulgard]

I agree that this seems like a false dichotomy. I understand going by Occam's Razor that this must make Marl a wolf, but socially I really don't think he's a wolf. He's had the towniest reactions in the thread to Sunbae's claim on me fmpov.

I don't think wolves thinking I'm PR is too unreasonable, especially since I've been actively trying not to spew myself VT.