PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[Arete]

yes wow we get the point I spent the entire game harddefending Vul when I should have been able to catch him

that is in fact a thing I did! yes! I don't think anyone is unaware of that fact!

[Arete]

the actual reason I came back was to post something I'd realized about that Vul post that probably clears c4 but then I actually checked the game I was thinking of and I had misremembered something

lolarete

[bronana]

your sassy response completely avoided the point I was making

you said he had "very yikes" posts then called him 98% town. that makes no sense to me

[Arete]

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

[Arete]

your sassy response completely avoided the point I was making

you said he had "very yikes" posts then called him 98% town. that makes no sense to me

he had a post that I was pretty confident was not something he would be at all capable of writing on SPF (which I mentioned in that same post). however, he also had a couple of yikes posts, which meant I was 98 percent confident in him being a villager rather than ~100 percent confident in him being a villager.

I don't specifically remember which posts were the yikes ones but if it's really important I can check

[bronana]

98 is not a meaningful difference from 100 , that is still expressing extreme confidence. I just cannot wrap my head around such confidence if you thought he had multiple very yikes posts, especially considering it was early day 1. in that stage of the game someone having several yikes posts should set off alarms, not a trivial footnote in a 98% confident townread?

I just don't understand your perspective in that post, at all

[nutella]

I'm pretty sure Vul is already out of his wolfrange from his linguistic analysis of SPF but there are a couple points in his posts that are very yikes

right now I would call him like 98 percent town but I should have a more confident read later and this isn't at sheepable territory yet

(for the unfamiliar, Vul and I have highly accurate reads on each other, essentially 100 percent accurate discounting third parties)

there are a couple points in his posts that are very yikes
right now I would call him like 98 percent town

yeah this and a couple other comments like it early on rang some bells went i was isoing

[nutella]

yes wow we get the point I spent the entire game harddefending Vul when I should have been able to catch him

that is in fact a thing I did! yes! I don't think anyone is unaware of that fact!

i think youre missing the point

[staypositivefriend]

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

[nutella]

what about you arete, whats your 2 + you chop list given your potential death status very shortly

SPF is one

and then the other I'm less sure about

yesterday I would have said Bronana but I don't particularly believe he's a wolf??

but the only other people I could ever see being wolves are c4 and Dizzy, I have no idea what Vul was doing if c4 is a wolf and I have no idea what Dizzy was doing if Dizzy was a wolf

I guess I would probably go for Dizzy over Bronana as my second name just because Dizzy kind of feels like they're trying to discredit townclears e.g. with the c4 thing where they were like 'well there were already two wolves in the list so why *can't* there be a third' which feels like it's not really engaging with the reasons why people thought that that post was clearing

btw this post felt weird to me last night too

why do you have bronana in your poe and not visor?

[Arete]

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone

that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate

weh

[Arete]

what about you arete, whats your 2 + you chop list given your potential death status very shortly

SPF is one

and then the other I'm less sure about

yesterday I would have said Bronana but I don't particularly believe he's a wolf??

but the only other people I could ever see being wolves are c4 and Dizzy, I have no idea what Vul was doing if c4 is a wolf and I have no idea what Dizzy was doing if Dizzy was a wolf

I guess I would probably go for Dizzy over Bronana as my second name just because Dizzy kind of feels like they're trying to discredit townclears e.g. with the c4 thing where they were like 'well there were already two wolves in the list so why *can't* there be a third' which feels like it's not really engaging with the reasons why people thought that that post was clearing

btw this post felt weird to me last night too

why do you have bronana in your poe and not visor?

Outed Wolf

I went back and forth for a while on whether he or Bronana was the Villagerier Villager Who Gets To Be In The Towncore but ultimately I'm more confident in this one.

The first main reason is the treatment of Vulgard:
SPOILER: SHOW
his vague aspersions on our ability to read each other are probably not out of the range of distancing but I still don't really think he would go out of his way to make fun of Vul's skill as Mafia (with TMI that Vul, in fact, was 'powerwolfing' rather than 'just bad')

I know Zack disagrees here but it's super unnecessary (+ the posts in question feel like they're written from a PoV of genuinely believing that Vulgard is a villager)

there's also this string of posts from Dya:
SPOILER: SHOW
which honestly probably just spews both Visor and Zack town

the thing that's making me push Visor over Zack into lock territory is how he handled his EoD4, where he was basically like 'yolo, Dya and Syn are both V, let's kill SPF'

and obviously there's some WifoM here, but--

if he's a wolf on D4, he knows that he's the deepwolf who has to win endgame, that no matter what he does Dya is going to be dying in the next couple days and most likely that day

and I think he would be setting himself up to ... win ... by getting enough towncred to ride through the last couple days (something which he, relevantly, was already well positioned for -- he wasn't in anyone's PoE but Syn's -- if he were in the PoE this logic wouldn't really apply) (he had also already been pushing Dya!!)

there's no reason to go burn towncred for no reason when you're positioned to be able to win solo

he's just a villager

also probably villagers, but my PoE has room for three

I'm not going to go through and quote this as extensively as I'm quoting everyone else, but I do also think these people are probably town.

Bronana

I think his attempt to shade Vul starting D2 is a good look

I think the same Dyapost I quoted in the last section, talking about Visor, applies to him equally much

I thought his treatment of Dya was reasonably decent (semi active in pushing them but not in a way that felt like he was just a wolf with TMI -- there were some moments of villagery self-doubt), and there were a few posts that he wouldn't really need to make as wolf e.g. shutting down the people calling Amy/Dya aligned (which would be minus EV to do as scum)

I don't care about his treatment of KZA. I think wolves on D1 basically always knew KZA was going down.

[staypositivefriend]

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone

that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate

weh

on the contrary, if you feel like you're going to end up dying today, then isn't even more important to leave behind a solid legacy that you can feel good and confident about?

[Dyslexicon]

I kind of have the fear

[nutella]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

[Dyslexicon]

That’s not constructive. But yes, Arete, I’m interested in any new thoughts or insights that have developed if any.

[staypositivefriend]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

do you realistically think that there's anything i can do that would make you feel comfortable about me being town?

[Dyslexicon]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

I’ll fucking hate it if I get dragged to F3. I don’t know who if not Arete.

[Arete]

I'm sort of mrrr about SPF being like 'arete hasn't been digging into my alignment very much, which means they aren't really trying to solve my slot' when the entire reasoning behind my reads is PoE

(also I did in fact look into her allegedly-clearing Dya progression and didn't find it clearing, but)

i mean, my reads are largely based on POE too, i just havent really gotten the impression that youre super worried about whether or not im town?

like i do think that you have a solid chance at being the last wolf, but i'm also very worried about being wrong. i don't sense a similar sense of worry or concern from your end of things

I mean yeah I'm not super worried about being wrong because I've known for most of the day that I was probably getting voted out today and so my reads mostly don't actually "matter" in the sense of affecting the chances of the last wolf being voted out? like I feel like when I phrase it that way it sounds like I'm saying that I don't care about solving, which is false, but like, I don't expect that me reading you as a wolf-by-PoE, if you are a villager, is going to particularly influence anyone

that's still a super bad phrasing that completely fails to communicate what I'm actually trying to communicate

weh

on the contrary, if you feel like you're going to end up dying today, then isn't even more important to leave behind a solid legacy that you can feel good and confident about?

I mean no one has particularly cared about my reads for most of the game and I don't really expect that to change when I flip V

obviously I'm going to do my best to solve the game but, like, no one listened when I said Gavial was probably in his town meta, no one listened to my points in favor of Alison, and that was before I was (known to be) very vocally and demonstrably wrong, which I assume isn't going to increase people's confidence in my reads being accurate

(also as point of fact I have until sometime in the middle of tomorrow to leave a legacy provided that that legacy can fit into a single post, assuming the post-in-phase-after-death prize works the way I think it does)

[staypositivefriend]

i am p concerned that arete is a villager but i realistically dont know where else i would feel comfortable going today

[Dyslexicon]

Oh, is EoD tomorrow?

[staypositivefriend]

Oh, is EoD tomorrow?

no it's in 2 hours - i think theyre implying that they'll be able to make a wallpost after death

[Dyslexicon]

Oh, is EoD tomorrow?

no it's in 2 hours - i think theyre implying that they'll be able to make a wallpost after death

Right, the price thing

[nutella]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

do you realistically think that there's anything i can do that would make you feel comfortable about me being town?

idk

(flip green)

no but seriously, some of your posts *have* felt good to me, but it doesnt stick. i really really hope arete is just it :/

[staypositivefriend]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

do you realistically think that there's anything i can do that would make you feel comfortable about me being town?

idk

(flip green)

no but seriously, some of your posts *have* felt good to me, but it doesnt stick. i really really hope arete is just it :/

shrug. i do too but i'm worried about the direction this game is heading in if aren't isn't "it". i wish there was some way that i could just make you read me correctly but i don't really know how to accomplish that

[nutella]

on the one hand arete talking about the post death prize thing feels like they really know they'll be using it which is concerning

on the other hand they say they won it early and only brought it up this phase so it can just be a mind game

but like... if it was a deterrent to us chopping them it isnt working, so that makes me think flipping them won't end the game..... idk it doesnt feel like it and i'm stressed

[nutella]

I kind of have the fear

me too but i think/hope if it's not arete it's almost always spf

do you realistically think that there's anything i can do that would make you feel comfortable about me being town?

idk

(flip green)

no but seriously, some of your posts *have* felt good to me, but it doesnt stick. i really really hope arete is just it :/

shrug. i do too but i'm worried about the direction this game is heading in if aren't isn't "it". i wish there was some way that i could just make you read me correctly but i don't really know how to accomplish that

i dont know anymore. i really do have a fear of visor or even zack skating to f3 and bringing home a wolf win after all this. if it's one of them then i'll be disappointed in how much of a town ezclap this felt like if we were actually misclearing a deep wolf

[nutella]

i really really dont think it's ever dizzy and i'll take the fall on that if i'm wrong


but if visor is in f3 i kinda feel like it's him. if visor and zack both are, fuck everything

[staypositivefriend]

i dont really know what dizzy's scumgame is like but his posts this morning were very villagery

[Arete]

That’s not constructive. But yes, Arete, I’m interested in any new thoughts or insights that have developed if any.

I mean if I had any new insights that I thought actually meant something I would have said them

it's not like I'm sitting on the solve and just randomly choosing not to mention it for no reason

a thought I had was that, like, a lot of people keep trying to use things that are either NAI or actively town-AI as arguments that I'm not a wolf but I thought about it and I think it comes more from wanting me to be a wolf so that the game is easy and (general-)you don't have to figure out who the last wolf is than agenda (also a lot of people have done it and I'm pretty sure they can't be all wolves)

like for instance the thing that prompted this was someone, I forget who, was like 'maybe the reason Arete isn't pushing anyone specific as a wolf is because they're a wolf who doesn't know how to properly case anyone when we're all reasonably villagery villagers' and like ... being able to case people even when you're surrounded by villagers is pretty much wolfing 101? like, that's a skill I picked up (albeit not initially very *well*) in, like, my first three months of playing FM?? I'm not saying this is specifically an argument that I'm a villager but unless you think I am basically the least competent wolf you've ever met that's obviously not a particularly coherent point? and like, obviously you all aren't super familiar with my range, but the fact that in my last wolfgame I wrote a 5,600 word case on a villager who was widely considered to be cleared has come up in the thread

[staypositivefriend]

arete, if you had full control of the next 3 chops, who would you chop and in what order?

[Arete]

on the one hand arete talking about the post death prize thing feels like they really know they'll be using it which is concerning

on the other hand they say they won it early and only brought it up this phase so it can just be a mind game

I didn't bring it up in any of the early phases because I thought it would decrease the odds I would get nightkilled and I wanted to get nightkilled since I wasn't a PR

and then I didn't bring it up in any of the middle phases because it wasn't ever really relevant

[Dyslexicon]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

??

[nutella]

im so stressed please in the name of the jagged the jay and the holy sunbae just let this game end today

[Arete]

arete, if you had full control of the next 3 chops, who would you chop and in what order?

probably ... you/Bronana/c4?? I guess?? in that order

which loses to Nutella/Outed Wolf/Dizzy but I have a hard time seeing any of them ever being wolves. I did have some Dizzyfoil earlier but I think it's largely outweighed by the evidence in favor of him being town

idk

I've been vaguely thinking that maybe Vul just really wanted to mess with us and that's how the c4 post happened but I don't actually think that's likely

[Dyslexicon]

Arete seems pretty frantic to me right now. But I don’t know what that means.

[bronana]

I think the way vulgard talks about c4 in thread seems perfectly in line with w/w to me

I don't know what he said to marl n2, but there are plenty of explanations for why vulgard could talk to marl about c4 like that - there's a difference between what you say in a neighbor chat and what you would say and actually push in the game thread

I thought c4's reaction to marl's claim d3 was weird

I think his posts and solving are weak and he's avoiding talking to anyone

if you don't want to kill arete, kill c4 before spf imo

[Arete]

I was specifically thinking of the post where Vulgard was like 'wow, I haven't seen anything meaningful from KZA, Dya, or c4' from like D1

[bronana]

he already mentioned two wolves like that, why not three

shrug

[Dyslexicon]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

[Dyslexicon]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

Isn’t that risky? If the plan was to stick to the claim at least?

[nutella]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

he claimed that it was never his intention to soft c4 as a target and that was all marl's extrapolation

[Arete]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

I don't think he would do it on purpose

I don't find it super clearing for c4 because I actually kind of believe he was telling the truth that he wasn't trying to signal specifically a jailkeep on c4 to Marl?

[nutella]

so, yeah, it could be c4 ig

another thing that helps me see that is how even spf thinks it's possible he's fooling her, while c4 doesnt think the same for spf -- spf said basically c4 is either a villager reading her correctly or a wolf tmiing her town, while c4 has just said spf is always town

which was kind of the reason i thought a few days ago that c4 may be the wolf of the two

[bronana]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

as soon as d3 started vul probably realized there was a very good chance he was fucked, I'm skeptical of reading much into anything he said that day

but also, marl faked it, not vulgard. There's a chance vulgard was legitimately being truthful when he said he thought he was hinting to marl that he thought I was softing a JK on sunbae (I think the timing of his "are you seeing what I'm seeing" comments to marl line up with this and he had sunbae in his POE and apparently talked about him being wolfy to marl a bunch in the neighbor chat iirc)

[nutella]

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

weh

[bronana]

I think marl's interpretation of vulgard's posts makes sense, because really if vulgard was pushing c4 in neighbor chat and claimed JK to marl, him thinking he wasn't hinting some kind of JK result to marl is ... bizarre? unless (as a wolf) it didn't even occur to vulgard?

i think these are the relevant posts

LOL

hello

dizzy visited nobody

which means i didn't get jailed, and also means i didn't get roleblocked - so presumably the scum nk was aimed at me

which means our jailkeeper has a redcheck

which is neat

VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

[VOTE: sunbae] aubergine

plot twist

who are the wolves sunbae

Night 2 has ended. Nobody has died.

Day 3 begins. You have 48 hours to place your votes.

I’ll post a quiz answer key here later when I can.

Hoping this is a redcheck and not a save, but I'll take either.

that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it

I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

I'm not
What do your elf eyes see

Wait I think I see what you're getting at kindve

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

[VOTE: C4] aubergine

[Dyslexicon]

Would Vul fake the jk thing on c4 as a partner?

I don't think he would do it on purpose

I don't find it super clearing for c4 because I actually kind of believe he was telling the truth that he wasn't trying to signal specifically a jailkeep on c4 to Marl?

Oh. I never realised

[Dyslexicon]

I’m leaning my vote on c4. I may fall asleep, but probably not.

But I don’t want to divert if the Aroot wagon is correct.

Weh x100

[bronana]

i am fine with killing either