Baby Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Lime Coke]

Bear didn't get tdomed tho so that's the major difference where things change.

Actually I'm pretty sure I massively OMGUS'd someone in the first BEAR town game until I subbed out. And the dude I OMGUS'd was wolf. So same situation here basically.

[Lime Coke]

It'd be on the upper edge of LC's wolf-game to make this game so far.

That being said, apparently the EOD was bad for LC but I'll check that and see what I think.

It wasn't great, but I didn't have a real scumread and I wasn't sure of the main 2 wagons. I just chilled out and watched.

Like can we remember I subbed into this game and didn't have time Day 1? Because people sure as hell aren't acting like it.

[EnderWiggin]

Okay actually why was LC's EOD so bad?

They:
1. Mention they feel like neither wagon is a hit
2. Put a vote down elsewhere
3. When people pressure on them they vacillate and seem unsure.

This is vastly different from an LC who is wolf who is more likely to happily bury a villager. Especially someone like Dizzy he thinks is strong. (See Buckets D2 where he was one of the biggest voices in the "flip Mac" crowd.)

[EnderWiggin]

Watch me convince myself LC is town in three easy steps

[EnderWiggin]

Reading over Alison's past games this does have some similarities to Batman where she was scum

Idk how outing that is or if my brain is even accurate atm.

[Lime Coke]

Okay actually why was LC's EOD so bad?

They:
1. Mention they feel like neither wagon is a hit
2. Put a vote down elsewhere
3. When people pressure on them they vacillate and seem unsure.

This is vastly different from an LC who is wolf who is more likely to happily bury a villager. Especially someone like Dizzy he thinks is strong. (See Buckets D2 where he was one of the biggest voices in the "flip Mac" crowd.)

Watch me convince myself LC is town in three easy steps

Glad someone sees the light and actually thinks about my perspective on things, and remembers what I do as mafia and town.

@Wisp

Listen to Ender, he knows how to read me better than anyone in this game, he's done the research.

[EnderWiggin]

The only main tinfoil is that LC hasn't locked himself town, which he usually does as town.

But he also subbed in.

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[EnderWiggin]

GTH LC is town and I am not about to egg myself.

[EnderWiggin]

This game does reflect his first BEAR game which is a slightly reassuring fact.

[EnderWiggin]

Yeah Basic mafia has a different cadence from Alison.

[Lime Coke]

I'm about to head to sleep, I'll be back more than likely for EOD.

If I manage to miss EOD, and I get voted off, hold EVERY SINGLE VOTER OF MINE ACCOUNTABLE.

Alison should go Day 3 if I go Day 2. Don't let her powerwolf this entire game.

[Lime Coke]

The only main tinfoil is that LC hasn't locked himself town, which he usually does as town.

But he also subbed in.

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Hard to do so when someone spouts bullshit saying I'm an outed wolf and I'm in anti-spew mode. At that rate I'm burying someone's ass.

[Lime Coke]

Oh yeah, corresponding with "hold my voters accountable."

If Tess/Esooa continues to do nothing this game she's probably also a wolf.

[Lime Coke]

That's all. Night everyone. Vote out Alison if I'm not back for EOD or if I'm majority'd before that. Stop letting her powerwolf.

[Alison]

Ender you're being really foolish right now and overthinking things to a crazy extent

LC played EOD in the scummiest way possible and then the person who wanted his head on a pike died in the night. I've said it before, I'll say it again. You are overthinking it if you're talking about crap like "meta cadence" (whatever the hell that means).

[Alison]

There's part of my gut that worries this is t/t

Even if this is T/T you should still vote here. Why? Because in that world it is better to resolve the tdome by force than to let this situation continue onto another day, or worse yet, onto endgame.

[EnderWiggin]

There's part of my gut that worries this is t/t

Even if this is T/T you should still vote here. Why? Because in that world it is better to resolve the tdome by force than to let this situation continue onto another day, or worse yet, onto endgame.

I am voting on the tdome tho.

[Alison]

There's part of my gut that worries this is t/t

Even if this is T/T you should still vote here. Why? Because in that world it is better to resolve the tdome by force than to let this situation continue onto another day, or worse yet, onto endgame.

I am voting on the tdome tho.

Just saying it in case other conspiracy theorists feel like replicating basic mafia.

[EnderWiggin]

Ender you're being really foolish right now and overthinking things to a crazy extent

LC played EOD in the scummiest way possible and then the person who wanted his head on a pike died in the night. I've said it before, I'll say it again. You are overthinking it if you're talking about crap like "meta cadence" (whatever the hell that means).

See.

Kills are very rarely that straightforward.

And even if it's LC I doubt "He called for me to be pushed tomorrow" is never something Nanook dies over.

[EnderWiggin]

Does Scum Alison actually try and force a tdome right here?

[Alison]

Does Scum Alison actually try and force a tdome right here?

I have better things to do than trade 1 for 1 with LC if I'm scum, I'll tell you that much

I still have no clue why a town LC would ever hold has vote at EOD. That is strictly suboptimal and he knows it's a move that benefits scum immensely and I told him why.

[EnderWiggin]

Town LC has a recent habit of not being super sure of his reads after Alexa snowed him in and his D1 defense was two wolves.

[EnderWiggin]

I don't see why that EOD is that damning tbh.

[EnderWiggin]

You saw him in Buckets. Scum LC isn't shy of pushing town wagons over the edge.

[EnderWiggin]

Like tbh that's the one reason I come back to you Alison. By my reckoning you would know that LC as scum isn't a shy voter.

So why is that the basis of your scumread?

[Alison]

The way he has handled today has been super bad as well. He has AtE'd heavy, and I know for a fact that he's been trying to avoid AtEing as town so much so it doesn't turn into a trust tell where people tilt him on purpose to get him to rage. That it was the first thing he reached for here is suspect, and smacks of an uncertain scum player going to the quickest and easiest way to get people off his back. His constant refrain that I am attempting to powerwolf kill him and then Wisp makes no sense when I would lose all credibility if he flips town. It's a scare tactic intended to invoke the specter of me snowing you guys under, but doesn't hold up or make sense when it's examined logically. He hasn't really done anything other than scream for my head either, while I've looked at a broad range of issues besides just him. This suggests that he is using his commitment to the thunderdome as a cheap excuse to avoid having to actually solve.

[Alison]

Like tbh that's the one reason I come back to you Alison. By my reckoning you would know that LC as scum isn't a shy voter.

So why is that the basis of your scumread?

I mean, people act differently from game to game. That LC voted on an EOD wagon once in some other game doesn't change the fact that it'a an objectively scummy thing to do. The thing about what he did was that it's the wrong call *even if* he was unsure. It makes no sense. If I'm 51% sure Mizery is scum and 49% sure Dizzy is, I'd be super uncertain, only a 2% gap separating the possibilities, but in that scenario, it's still strictly and obviously correct to vote Mizery. He knows this because nanook told him, and has no logical reason not to put a cote down.

[Luckbox Inc]

I'm awake barely

[Alison]

The bottom line is that there is no logical explanation for why he chose to withhold his vote if he is town and a clear logical explanation for why he did it if he is town.

[Alison]

The bottom line is that there is no logical explanation for why he chose to withhold his vote if he is town and a clear logical explanation for why he did it if he is town.

why he did it if he is town*

[Alison]

Ugh I mean why he did it if he is scum*

[EnderWiggin]

The way he has handled today has been super bad as well. He has AtE'd heavy, and I know for a fact that he's been trying to avoid AtEing as town so much so it doesn't turn into a trust tell where people tilt him on purpose to get him to rage. That it was the first thing he reached for here is suspect, and smacks of an uncertain scum player going to the quickest and easiest way to get people off his back. His constant refrain that I am attempting to powerwolf kill him and then Wisp makes no sense when I would lose all credibility if he flips town. It's a scare tactic intended to invoke the specter of me snowing you guys under, but doesn't hold up or make sense when it's examined logically. He hasn't really done anything other than scream for my head either, while I've looked at a broad range of issues besides just him. This suggests that he is using his commitment to the thunderdome as a cheap excuse to avoid having to actually solve.

See, this is all nice and logical if you apply it overall to an average player.

But LimeCoke isn't exactly the average player.

So to deconstruct this:
1. I'm going to ignore all the AtE. Because reading him off his AtE has never been effective, and as recently as Cop/Vig 13er on MU and the Constellation Teams game he has aggressively defended his own slot with what could be called AtE. This is something which should be null for him, and I get annoyed when people focus on it for a read. LC is a heavy AtE-er and I can provide more Meta for that then there is drops in the bloody ocean.

2. I don't know how much attention you were paying during Teams game but LC is a well known OMGUSer. Especially when he feels the push on him is unfair or biased he has a tendency to lash out on the person who is pushing him. Perhaps not the healthiest habit still but regardless, this has evidence as well.

3. LC has focused on you, however he has made multiple reads (Most recent being regarding Tess) outside his tunnel. This is consistent with both scum and town meta for him. The "Cheap excuse" reasoning doesn't hold up when he consistently does it no matter his alignment.

4. The only thing that holds water is the "Wisp chaining" argument he's pushing, which has given me a little pause in this. However it's no where near all that the push on him has cracked up to be.

Things he has done that have possibly been regarding his alignment that are scumsided:
1. His opening reads list tended towards less cohesive reads than I see from him as town. Even as BEAR his catchup list was a little more fleshed out. (In one of the games, there was another game where he was a little lacklustre on this as town).

Day 1 his case/push on Gav was more his townplay, but his lack of consistency in pushing it is one of the other things that give me pause.

2. He's played a little hedgier than he can be as town, however he's also recently expressed unsurety so I'm playing around with that as the reasoning.

[EnderWiggin]

I've sat out of EOD wagons as town tho.

[EnderWiggin]

Sitting out of it is one shard of a scumread. I don't call out people who sit out on D1 unless their reasoning was egregious and outing. LC's wasn't.

[Alison]

It was egregious and outing. His reasoning was that he wasn't sure who to vote. I have proven that even if this is the case, it is still optimal to vote at EOD. He must have known this because nanook told him to and was pressuring him to do it. What was stopping him? I can think of only one answer.

[Alison]

And you didn't address my point that he is less likely to AtE as town because he has been trying to avoid AtEing when he is town recently. That he goes for it as a first resort without hesitation is suspicious.

[Luckbox Inc]

I mean Alison is just a villager regardless of how LC flips. Some of her arguments on LC are better than others (e.g. how LC has handled today vs the eod1 stuff)-- but that doesn't matter.

I'm also a huge sucker for AtE, but hopefully LC will flip wolf. Obviously I'll vote there but keeping vote on Tess still for now.

[EnderWiggin]

And you didn't address my point that he is less likely to AtE as town because he has been trying to avoid AtEing when he is town recently. That he goes for it as a first resort without hesitation is suspicious.

Lmao.

I did address it.

I pointed out that despite his attempts to minimize his raging he has had consistent emotive responses in both of his two recent towngames.

Please actually read my counterpoints.

[Alison]

And you didn't address my point that he is less likely to AtE as town because he has been trying to avoid AtEing when he is town recently. That he goes for it as a first resort without hesitation is suspicious.

Lmao.

I did address it.

I pointed out that despite his attempts to minimize his raging he has had consistent emotive responses in both of his two recent towngames.

Please actually read my counterpoints.

That's not the same as throwing a giant tantrum the first chance he gets

[Alison]

"Trying his best to keep a lid on things but having some emotion seep out"

vs

"The moment I start seriously pushing him he starts flipping the table over"

[Luckbox Inc]

"Trying his best to keep a lid on things but having some emotion seep out"

vs

"The moment I start seriously pushing him he starts flipping the table over"

You push pretty hard though so I imagine that at least for some that could be the response.

[Alison]

He was tunnelled by Mac in Constellations, and Mac pushes as hard as me.

[Luckbox Inc]

Tess still just seems like a wolf.

I thought it was interesting last night how I induced a long post from her and then she instantly got some clears, but producing some ex post facto thought-processes isn't exactly difficult for her, and her D1 was bad and her D2 hasn't been better. Her pushes this game consist of Dizzy and now Gira and that one has been weak, and there has been no villagery energy about her.

Even if she stays on LC and LC flips wolf, I'll just assume they are w/w as Esooa couldn't vote v! Alison here.

[Alison]

I agree that Tess is wolfy.

[EnderWiggin]

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

I have realised all my evidence of him doing aggro tunnel in my notes are older games.

None of the recent reactions were like this one.

Honestly feeling like I'm lost this game lmao.

[tessepia]

I finally got to backreading everything but I took Benadryl because my hands were itching for some reason, and a sleep pill and I got drowsy and I skimmed the last like...3 pages.

Mizery being Illwei throws my read on them actually because I thought she was wolfy but like....her town game is wolfy in general?

Towniest to scummiest list:

Falcon - Weird early push on the "Color/claim" stuff. Follows up and responds to others questioning him on it strongly and doesn't back down. Feels like he believes what he's saying.

Ender - He's writing in poems, what the fuck. I agree with his townread on Luck. Him talking about the Nanook stuff sheeping Gavial is towny from him since I don't think a mafia member in general would talk about the reasoning someone's doing something weird as a wolf.

Luckbox - His opening and game in total doesn't feel as stilted as I saw watching Band Mafia on MU.
Ender - He's writing in poems, what the fuck. I agree with his townread on Luck.

Gira - The spat with Alison earlier and his reactions might be coming from town!Gira.

Allison - Town leaning for now because she seems to be changing views and reads accordingly in a way that I understand.

Nanook - Him coming to Wisp's defense and the description of Wisp's game is a good look since I doubt scum would even try defending someone who might be a designated misyeet for the game if Wisp is town.

Dizzy - At the least they weren't pockety like they were in Fleabag mafia? (( I say this seeing Dizzy literally do just that to Illario last game )) I didn't totally comprehend their posts.

Tess - Hasn't done much.

DrWilgy - The only thing I remember is him wolfcasing Luck. Otherwise remember nothing else about his game.

Mizery - Awkward SOD. #371 #372 #373 #374 #375 Spends about 5 posts talking about Esooa's entrance? Then leaves.
I just saw that Mizery is actually Illwei...that might change a few things?

Wisp - SOD mostly talks about not wanting to "Towncore" anyone.
#320 weird post. A lot of complaining about "grandstanders" and gimmicks. Finally does metadives and comes up with quick conclusions.

Gavial - #216 #221 #232 #234 These were his catch up posts and there's a lot of questioning and responding to things that aren't like...game advancing?

I keep re-reading over the ISO cause I don't want to get LC wrong here and like:

This post is both out of his wolf range but also kinda weird for LC.

@Lime Coke

What was the Alt that you would join later and do reads list? I think that actually will be better for Meta in this game then the usual meta I use for your game.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4836676

[EnderWiggin]

Hmmm. That list is a lot better tbh.

[tessepia]

Tess still just seems like a wolf.

I thought it was interesting last night how I induced a long post from her and then she instantly got some clears, but producing some ex post facto thought-processes isn't exactly difficult for her, and her D1 was bad and her D2 hasn't been better. Her pushes this game consist of Dizzy and now Gira and that one has been weak, and there has been no villagery energy about her.

Even if she stays on LC and LC flips wolf, I'll just assume they are w/w as Esooa couldn't vote v! Alison here.

enthralling day phase where if I call gira a wolf I get ignored and if I call BK a wolf I get yelled at and called a liar

I've given my reads

[tessepia]

Hmmm. That list is a lot better tbh.

he was a wolf that game

[EnderWiggin]

Hmmm. That list is a lot better tbh.

he was a wolf that game

Lmao that's even funnier.