Team Fortress Mafia [END]

[Gavial]

Technically the Spy can check Marmot to confirm.

[Gavial]

Exactly when I have vigilante (or at least a normal one) I don’t go by what another person says I don’t get manipulated the only allowed to manipulate me is myself so that’s why I make my own decisions under my own discretion.

You better be right then.

Oh I hope so.

[Gavial]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

[Gavial]

If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

[falcon45ca]

If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

You've made some noise about shooting Marmot, correct? Have you claimed a role? If so, I missed it

[Guillotine]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

If we kill Nanook or Jack is not because they were roleblocked and there was no kill because hello! MacDougall is a heavy who used a self save and he could have been the kill that failed if Mac is town.

[NotAnAxehole]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

If we kill Nanook or Jack is not because they were roleblocked and there was no kill because hello! MacDougall is a heavy who used a self save and he could have been the kill that failed if Mac is town.

This. Everyone should look for angles to exploit the game's mechanics, but no one should be expecting a mechanical solve this game. There is too much role madness.

[Guillotine]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

[NotAnAxehole]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

[NotAnAxehole]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position

[falcon45ca]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position

Are you TR Guillo now?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Let's just fear-elim jack today so we don't have to deal with him in lylo.

No hard feelings Jack.

[VOTE: JackOfSharts] aubergine

Don’t worry. I’m sticking around and this game isn’t going to lylo.

[NotAnAxehole]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position

Are you TR Guillo now?

At no point in this game did I scum read Guillotine

[Jackofhearts2005]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

Peak role madness achieved. Gj @Dragon D. Luffy

[NotAnAxehole]

Oh wait, I put him in a poe d1 didn't I? That was like a week ago, mostly because I didn't want to be wrong on him

[falcon45ca]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

[NotAnAxehole]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

[NotAnAxehole]

Context matters

[falcon45ca]

yo

NAA is on Guillo with exactly 1 vote after Guillo did a certain thing

tbh I think that's greedy town lmao, and I'd discourage him from being on Guillo at Eod

I think Guillo is fake claiming to be honest, but it's not really worth the risk because he's a player who would 100% target me if he has a role, whereas everyone else is a bit more up in the air.

Do you TR Guillo here?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Im gonna say this. Falcon is treating Gavial like a bad townie, not like scum.

Agreed. Scumread feels fake.

Okay, yeah.

Townread Guillo, scumlean Falcon.

[NotAnAxehole]

yo

NAA is on Guillo with exactly 1 vote after Guillo did a certain thing

tbh I think that's greedy town lmao, and I'd discourage him from being on Guillo at Eod

I think Guillo is fake claiming to be honest, but it's not really worth the risk because he's a player who would 100% target me if he has a role, whereas everyone else is a bit more up in the air.

Do you TR Guillo here?

Yes, the very fact that I'm saying I want to prevent the shot indicates that I think he's town given that I can't prevent a scum shot.

[falcon45ca]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

[DrWilgy]

@DrWilgy
@MacDougall
@LinearPoint
@Lime Coke
@Dolby
@NotAnAxehole

I want you 6 to remember something very important.
TSP being Mafia Sniper confirms Falcon as Mafia.

Mphh

[NotAnAxehole]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

[falcon45ca]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

[NotAnAxehole]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

[NotAnAxehole]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

[falcon45ca]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

[falcon45ca]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Nope

[NotAnAxehole]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

[NotAnAxehole]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

[falcon45ca]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

Can we not say that there were five events which could have stopped a nk, so there's a 1/5 chance of any one of them being the effective one?

As you know I'm awful at math so

[NotAnAxehole]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

I'm sheeping Marmot. Independent thought is game throwing.

[falcon45ca]

I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

You didn't want a Town Vig to have a shot? Catch me up on why

[falcon45ca]

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

I'm sheeping Marmot. Independent thought is game throwing.

Then why bother posting at all?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I mean legitimately no one town read Dizzy from what I saw.
To be honest I don't really suspect you Jack, more Sig since they seem a bit suspicious and Sabie because that was a very convenient CFD onto a random person I think only really Dolby had been suspecting.

I don’t have a Sabie read. I’ve read like one of her posts.

I don’t think many wolf teams here try to cfd to save Sabie. Maybe they jump on one but I don’t think they start it.

No offense, Sabie.

I kinda think this post is town?

Sabie is just w/e, don't think it hits vibe tell

would not vote Gav just for the sheer involvement he has in the game rn

sig exists, the two game I played with him he seemed like a easy misyeet

kinda wanna kill dolby

I could vote sabie sig or maybe nanook

weird post considering you ended up voting to save sabie

@falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz

@falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz

@TonyStarkPrime @Guillotine reads on falcon and Dolby plz.

@LinearPoint @Marmot can you tell me obvious things I should know so I don't tunnel outed town or some dumb shit like that

I think Mac is town, here. This mindset reads like townie Mac.

[NotAnAxehole]

Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.



*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

Can we not say that there were five events which could have stopped a nk, so there's a 1/5 chance of any one of them being the effective one?

As you know I'm awful at math so

I'm not actually sure how to quantify it, it's almost certain that a role blocked target has a higher % chance of being mafia... But how much?

So, if we consider every player has an equal probability of being a target, then the probability that a role block blocking the kill is higher... However, if we consider that each player has an equal probability of carrying the kill, then the save has a higher % chance of having stopped the kill

[NotAnAxehole]

Idk I'm confused

[NotAnAxehole]

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?


Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

You didn't want a Town Vig to have a shot? Catch me up on why

Because he would shoot me, I thought this was very obvious to everyone.

[Jackofhearts2005]

While I’m still almost positive it’s Falcon I’m pretty sure both TSP/Marmot are wolves.

Jfc a wolf Marmot read.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I could vote sabie sig or maybe nanook

weird post considering you ended up voting to save sabie

This was a meme

[TonyStarkPrime]

@falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz

@TonyStarkPrime @Guillotine reads on falcon and Dolby plz.

@LinearPoint @Marmot can you tell me obvious things I should know so I don't tunnel outed town or some dumb shit like that

Falcons lock town and I think Dolby is like my a wolf

[TonyStarkPrime]

And by Lock town I mean I’m reading this game approx 60% and I think he’s town but don’t remember anything he’s said since day 1

[TonyStarkPrime]

@LinearPoint
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@falcon45ca
@Dolby
@sig
@TonyStarkPrime


Votes onto JackofHearts he's outed mechanically.

Oh ok

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like if Marmot is not the town watcher, then the real one should just hard claim it as we are in the best position right now we zero deaths last night.

Aren’t there like 2 watchers (and every other role) in the setup anyway?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Or even on me as if TSP is mafia he probably targets me with his sniper since I’m the town variant of him.

Well that’s not why

[TonyStarkPrime]

Ok there appear to be some basic setup problems in this thread right now