Dolby wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:56 pm
tbf to LP I view her "I was trying to get mafia to kill me to avoid having Sig's alignment confirmed" a not eniterly unbelievable thought process given that she's been repping a "mafia are running the kill through sig" view the whole game
Except again, Mafia doesn't care if Sig gets killed.
yes mafia doesn't care. I'm just saying that the misapplied logic actually makes some sense and is believable that a person would think, rather than actually doing.
From town!LP's PoV, her action failed and she was baiting a kill with no downside beyond revealing tomorrow "yo I lied I can't tell you Sig's alignment"
From scum!her alignment she was trying to claim the scummiest action sequence on the "towny" pathway, claiming a track on the one person in the game who can't confirm it.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:58 pm
I guarantee I will correctly read Scotty and Hallowcat.
I still don’t know if you’ve committed to scumreading or townreading me yet
I'm going to claim that I'm correct either way, I would have killed you D1, I'm not going to consider you for the rest of the game (you can consider this to be a pseudo town read), and if are wolf, I'll blame town for not heeding my high probability play.
That’s the biggest cop out lol
If it were up to me, I wouldn't have to cop out because you'd be dead.
Dolby wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:07 pm
her misapplied logic doesn't make sense, I mean I can see a person actually thinking it does
I mean, it's not that... I just think there has to be exactly one mafia between you and LP, your treatment of the bogus claim doesn't make any sense given that.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:45 pm
today's stupid wish is that Dya and Sig swoop in and solve the game but that's like never gonna happen
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:41 pm
LP getting caught in a lie as mafia and claiming they didn't get caught in a lie... Not sure where I've seen that before, but it rhymes with glock... Which incidentally, is a fitting solution to the problem, I think.
I think if wolf LP had her action not go through she'd claim it rather than claim an even worse action on sig at this point. Also thinking about it it gives an excuse for no actioning the next day to.
Like, LP not actually going to sig and having lied about it makes her distinctly more towny.
I wouldn't put it past her to make up a fake action, but come on, Sig? Unless she's specifically aimming for a Sig ML on Day Four... which could be a world but I think that if Sig is town and we ML today scum has basically won at that point, or it's LYLO, one or the other
wait...what?
LP lied about visiting Sig?
yeah Dya blocked her
and confirmed she got CP and therefore her action went through? @dyachei ?
Cause if Dya catches LP in a lie, there's no reason to yeet anyone but LP or Dya today imo.
yes, i got CP, yes it was successful. LP lied about visiting/tracking sig.
Okay, then we're in a world where LP is a wolf for lying or Dya is framing LP to get a misyeet before a 5 kill night ftw.
The only important players to evaluate atp are LP and Dya. And if the aforementioned w!Dya play is even mathematically feasible. Cause if it's not, then we just yeet LP and if Dya is the wolf, at least it outs her in time to yeet her.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:45 pm
today's stupid wish is that Dya and Sig swoop in and solve the game but that's like never gonna happen
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:41 pm
LP getting caught in a lie as mafia and claiming they didn't get caught in a lie... Not sure where I've seen that before, but it rhymes with glock... Which incidentally, is a fitting solution to the problem, I think.
I think if wolf LP had her action not go through she'd claim it rather than claim an even worse action on sig at this point. Also thinking about it it gives an excuse for no actioning the next day to.
Like, LP not actually going to sig and having lied about it makes her distinctly more towny.
I wouldn't put it past her to make up a fake action, but come on, Sig? Unless she's specifically aimming for a Sig ML on Day Four... which could be a world but I think that if Sig is town and we ML today scum has basically won at that point, or it's LYLO, one or the other
wait...what?
LP lied about visiting Sig?
yeah Dya blocked her
and confirmed she got CP and therefore her action went through? @dyachei ?
Cause if Dya catches LP in a lie, there's no reason to yeet anyone but LP or Dya today imo.
yes, i got CP, yes it was successful. LP lied about visiting/tracking sig.
Okay, then we're in a world where LP is a wolf for lying or Dya is framing LP to get a misyeet before a 5 kill night ftw.
The only important players to evaluate atp are LP and Dya. And if the aforementioned w!Dya play is even mathematically feasible. Cause if it's not, then we just yeet LP and if Dya is the wolf, at least it outs her in time to yeet her.
LP confirmed she lied, that her action didn't go through, and that Sig wasn't her original target
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:45 pm
today's stupid wish is that Dya and Sig swoop in and solve the game but that's like never gonna happen
I think if wolf LP had her action not go through she'd claim it rather than claim an even worse action on sig at this point. Also thinking about it it gives an excuse for no actioning the next day to.
Like, LP not actually going to sig and having lied about it makes her distinctly more towny.
I wouldn't put it past her to make up a fake action, but come on, Sig? Unless she's specifically aimming for a Sig ML on Day Four... which could be a world but I think that if Sig is town and we ML today scum has basically won at that point, or it's LYLO, one or the other
wait...what?
LP lied about visiting Sig?
yeah Dya blocked her
and confirmed she got CP and therefore her action went through? @dyachei ?
Cause if Dya catches LP in a lie, there's no reason to yeet anyone but LP or Dya today imo.
yes, i got CP, yes it was successful. LP lied about visiting/tracking sig.
Okay, then we're in a world where LP is a wolf for lying or Dya is framing LP to get a misyeet before a 5 kill night ftw.
The only important players to evaluate atp are LP and Dya. And if the aforementioned w!Dya play is even mathematically feasible. Cause if it's not, then we just yeet LP and if Dya is the wolf, at least it outs her in time to yeet her.
LP confirmed she lied, that her action didn't go through, and that Sig wasn't her original target
What’d you do last night? Anything productive?
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:45 pm
today's stupid wish is that Dya and Sig swoop in and solve the game but that's like never gonna happen
I think if wolf LP had her action not go through she'd claim it rather than claim an even worse action on sig at this point. Also thinking about it it gives an excuse for no actioning the next day to.
Like, LP not actually going to sig and having lied about it makes her distinctly more towny.
I wouldn't put it past her to make up a fake action, but come on, Sig? Unless she's specifically aimming for a Sig ML on Day Four... which could be a world but I think that if Sig is town and we ML today scum has basically won at that point, or it's LYLO, one or the other
wait...what?
LP lied about visiting Sig?
yeah Dya blocked her
and confirmed she got CP and therefore her action went through? @dyachei ?
Cause if Dya catches LP in a lie, there's no reason to yeet anyone but LP or Dya today imo.
yes, i got CP, yes it was successful. LP lied about visiting/tracking sig.
Okay, then we're in a world where LP is a wolf for lying or Dya is framing LP to get a misyeet before a 5 kill night ftw.
The only important players to evaluate atp are LP and Dya. And if the aforementioned w!Dya play is even mathematically feasible. Cause if it's not, then we just yeet LP and if Dya is the wolf, at least it outs her in time to yeet her.
LP confirmed she lied, that her action didn't go through, and that Sig wasn't her original target
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:23 pm
There’s no reason whatsoever to make that lie as a townie.
Then again, that’s a really stupid lie to make as a wolf cause why?
LP claimed to want to die to confirm Sig's alignment bc she believes that mafia always proxy the kill through Sig, but Sig always dies so... And that mafia kill her to keep Sig's alignment from getting out
I think that the scum reason to do so is to have a claimed track
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
I gotta say, last time LP was caught in a lie, a bunch of town explained away how it made sense, and definitely not alignment indicative. So maybe I was being too harsh on Dolby, and should instead continue lobbying to have LP killed.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:27 pm
Oh, there is wolf motivation. To come in tomorrow with info pointing to Sig being wolf (assuming Sig is town).
So if LP is a wolf, Sig is almost always town, here.
I don’t see any Town motivation for telling this lie.
the only town motivation was to try to bait a kill onto herself and frankly the logic used doesn't hold but I believe it more than her actually being on sig
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
I gotta say, last time LP was caught in a lie, a bunch of town explained away how it made sense, and definitely not alignment indicative. So maybe I was being too harsh on Dolby, and should instead continue lobbying to have LP killed.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
I gotta say, last time LP was caught in a lie, a bunch of town explained away how it made sense, and definitely not alignment indicative. So maybe I was being too harsh on Dolby, and should instead continue lobbying to have LP killed.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:27 pm
Oh, there is wolf motivation. To come in tomorrow with info pointing to Sig being wolf (assuming Sig is town).
So if LP is a wolf, Sig is almost always town, here.
I don’t see any Town motivation for telling this lie.
the only town motivation was to try to bait a kill onto herself and frankly the logic used doesn't hold but I believe it more than her actually being on sig
She was never gonna bait a kill by threatening an empty slot when there’s a special mechanic explicitly for killing empty slots.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
Assuming this isn’t a big brain sacrifice bunt, getting rid of a wolf here and confirming the two least active players (Sig and Dya) as town is potentially game winning. Luckily, jinxes don’t really exist.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
in the interest of not getting flamed in post i'll say i did block jack n2.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
It would be nice if someone claimed a block but wolves, Dunya and randomized t!Sig (maybe not, idk how his point assignment is determined. Presumably also randomly) can’t or won’t claim blocks on me. Additionally, I was told that I couldn’t earn CP by using Pal1 unless it actually healed poison. Under that logic, a Pal2 block on someone that was only Pal1 (ie who had no action to block) might not earn CP anyway, without the 15% (or whatever) fail chance even entering into it.
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:23 pm
There’s no reason whatsoever to make that lie as a townie.
Then again, that’s a really stupid lie to make as a wolf cause why?
There is tho. As she said, she was probably going down, so why not force the wolves to kill her so she doesn’t reveal info if sig was the one to make the kills.
This is all assuming sig is bad at all, which…I mean…he probably isn’t…
Hmm
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
in the interest of not getting flamed in post i'll say i did block jack n2.
This is a good thing to claim.
Also a good look for Urist. Not a great look because maybe he’s claiming an action Dunya or Sig actually made or maybe I missed my roll but gth, I don’t think a wolf quickly fake claims this action. If wolves are going for the 4 player death by cuts strategy (and maybe they’re not but we’ll have a very good guess soon), Urist is proooobably town.
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
in the interest of not getting flamed in post i'll say i did block jack n2.
This is a good thing to claim.
Also a good look for Urist. Not a great look because maybe he’s claiming an action Dunya or Sig actually made or maybe I missed my roll but gth, I don’t think a wolf quickly fake claims this action. If wolves are going for the 4 player death by cuts strategy (and maybe they’re not but we’ll have a very good guess soon), Urist is proooobably town.
My dude… urist just claimed Paladin 3 on you
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
It would be nice if someone claimed a block but wolves, Dunya and randomized t!Sig (maybe not, idk how his point assignment is determined. Presumably also randomly) can’t or won’t claim blocks on me. Additionally, I was told that I couldn’t earn CP by using Pal1 unless it actually healed poison. Under that logic, a Pal2 block on someone that was only Pal1 (ie who had no action to block) might not earn CP anyway, without the 15% (or whatever) fail chance even entering into it.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:23 pm
There’s no reason whatsoever to make that lie as a townie.
Then again, that’s a really stupid lie to make as a wolf cause why?
There is tho. As she said, she was probably going down, so why not force the wolves to kill her so she doesn’t reveal info if sig was the one to make the kills.
This is all assuming sig is bad at all, which…I mean…he probably isn’t…
Hmm
But even if Sig was bad, wolves wouldn’t waste a kill trying to protect him when Sig dies for free at the whim of the town without even using a yeet.
This doesn’t make sense as a play even if a t!LP w!Sig world.
Plus, t!LP would have to bet that nobody would claim a block on her even though her action failed, causing a town loss to threaten a wolf that is already dead. Whereas w!LP also risks her own yeet but the payoff for succeeding is a wolf win and the penalty for failing is a single wolf yeet.
It makes more sense for a wolf to lie when not getting caught means a win than for a townie to lie when getting caught is a loss.
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:16 pm
I just hate that it’s D3 and none of us have any info mech to talk about. Just that dya is a blocking god and NAA has poisoned someone in the POE.
I’ve failed 2 actions in a row. No idea if I was blocked or if I missed my die roll.
you should have been told you were blocked n2
Paladin:
Level three: Heavy Attack (blocks your targets Class abilities AND the factional kill–your target is informed they were blocked, even if they used no abilities)
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:26 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 what actions?
Pal2 block on Sig (figured he was doing nothing helpful if town and could be doing bad shit if wolf) and then a Pal2 block on Urist. Which like isn’t a brilliant move but like I said, I don’t have any strong scumreads (except now LP).
Ok, so assuming that nobody has a roleblock to claim, there's a 2% chance that Jack is town, 98% chance that jack is mafia (the probability of 2 Fails on 85% in a row.
It would be nice if someone claimed a block but wolves, Dunya and randomized t!Sig (maybe not, idk how his point assignment is determined. Presumably also randomly) can’t or won’t claim blocks on me. Additionally, I was told that I couldn’t earn CP by using Pal1 unless it actually healed poison. Under that logic, a Pal2 block on someone that was only Pal1 (ie who had no action to block) might not earn CP anyway, without the 15% (or whatever) fail chance even entering into it.
Player roles flipped...
But not their actions. And Sig hasn’t flipped, nor have any wolves.
If it were up to me, I wouldn't have to cop out because you'd be dead.
