The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

WIFOM.

If Nutella is mafia, Lap is not because then the arguement doesn't matter.

If Simon is mafia with Lap and not Nutella, a Nutella lynch is a mafia win. You can't assume she's pushing too hard against lynching Simon and therefore is good.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:24 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:16 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:07 pm Actually Tony, who do you want to lynch tomorrow if you think Simon's a bad lynch?

Good question.

Probably Nutella.

^^^^^^^

Why do you think Tony is god of Simon's alignment?

The whole premise of "well if the tracker thought X it must be so" is asinine.

I believe Tony tracked Nutella targeting a dead townie but if Tony knew who all the baddies were why didn't we lynch them?

And if Tony knew who all the baddies were, why don't you believe him about Simon?

What's our lylo situation? Has someone planned out our remaining phases like that yet?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:41 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

I want to hear more about this.

There is no good reason for a mafia member to defend Simon this hard if he is a teammate. It's nonsense. One is forced to invoke the most intense of WIFOM to turn that into a reality, and I think that'd be quite weak.

Mafia members are more likely to be eager to bus their single-digit posting teammate than protect him at all costs. Civilians tend to be clueless about this kind of thing and will by their very nature surround the defender post-mafia-flip with foam dribbling from their mouths waiting to pounce. Simons teammates know that.

The only alternative to consider would be: this is LyLo right now, nutella is a civilian, and lapluie is going for the win. I find that highly unlikely given the numbers.

Assuming Kano lives and all mafia lives, we are at mylo or lylo. Depends on hidden mechanics.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:38 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:41 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

I want to hear more about this.

There is no good reason for a mafia member to defend Simon this hard if he is a teammate. It's nonsense. One is forced to invoke the most intense of WIFOM to turn that into a reality, and I think that'd be quite weak.

Mafia members are more likely to be eager to bus their single-digit posting teammate than protect him at all costs. Civilians tend to be clueless about this kind of thing and will by their very nature surround the defender post-mafia-flip with foam dribbling from their mouths waiting to pounce. Simons teammates know that.

The only alternative to consider would be: this is LyLo right now, nutella is a civilian, and lapluie is going for the win. I find that highly unlikely given the numbers.

Assuming Kano lives and all mafia lives, we are at mylo or lylo. Depends on hidden mechanics.

WUT

...

Oh, right, the inactives.

Not just the inactives.

I see a 3 vote swing on the front page. 4 if the mafia targets right.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:40 pm Not just the inactives.

I see a 3 vote swing on the front page. 4 if the mafia targets right.

. . . well crap.

so basically lynch scum or we're screwed

16 alive. Likely:
5 Mafia
9-10 town
1-2 3P
(I'm assuming at least one 3P is alive what with the whole mess on night 3, and that the mafia haven't somehow gotten themselves kills with *secrets*)

Mafia can add an extra vote on a person, and subtract a townie vote. They also have a copy role that they can copy these two roles with, alternating if double-targeting is a problem. Two townies are inactive completely.
3P alliances? Who knows? Going to assume best case: 1 3P == 1 Town (Since Kano wins at this point no matter what, even if we lynch straight scum the nightkills should do it)

5 mafia + 1 vote (plus another if they copy themselves with the copy role) = 7 votes.
11 Town - 1 vote - 2 inactives = 8 votes.

That's LYLO, right? Crap, I thought we had way better than that. Scum isn't even 1/3 the living players.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:41 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:40 pm Not just the inactives.

I see a 3 vote swing on the front page. 4 if the mafia targets right.

. . . well crap.

This is part of why I thought Tony was bad.

We had one mislynch allowed. Tony counted 3.

It's not a sure thing. If one of four mafia players is blocked or misdirected or if Liu Kang is alive, or if Kung Lao is alive or if there's a hidden town vote manipulator of some sort and there are no additional vote manipulating powers on the scum team, the town still controls its destiny tomorrow.

That means if all the townies vote one way and all the scum vote the other and King Lao breaks the tie (if applicable), town still wins. If one townie is fooled or doesn't participate (and all the baddies do) or the above paragraph doesn't happen, scum wins.

I think it is important to get Simon. If he's one of the vote manipulation roles, that may buy us two extra days instead of one.

I take back whatever I said earlier. Lapluie could be scum if Nutella is town and Simon is scum. One mislynch is all they need. What do they care if Lap gets figured out? One mislynch here and we're done. Especially if Simon is a vote manipulator.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:52 pm I take back whatever I said earlier. Lapluie could be scum if Nutella is town and Simon is scum. One mislynch is all they need. What do they care if Lap gets figured out? One mislynch here and we're done. Especially if Simon is a vote manipulator.

Exactly.

Time to ISO Nutella and Lap, gents. (I'm talking about you guys. I'm really tired.)

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] Yeah, those roles might exist. Still, we aren't in any position to mislynch. And heck, what happens if Smoke hits the wrong person with their ability?

...mmm

should i buy us an extra day then?

Also there are less than ten votes in the poll. Mafia could be manhandling this already. If you haven't voted, and you exist, please vote. Well before deadline, so we can reach a consensus.

linki: If it poses no risk, sure Quin.

I moved my vote.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:01 pmI moved my vote.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:02 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:01 pmI moved my vote.

We can always lynch scum if you'd prefer.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:56 pm Jackofhearts2005 Yeah, those roles might exist. Still, we aren't in any position to mislynch. And heck, what happens if Smoke hits the wrong person with their ability?

I forgot about Smoke.

Town probably technically controls tomorrow's lynch if everyone is active since even if all scum get through, one of Liu Kang, King Lao and Smoke probably does too.

Hope Dom is bad.

[mention]nutella[/mention]

Would a town fracker have reason to think you were bad based on night results?

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:08 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:02 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:01 pmI moved my vote.

We can always lynch scum if you'd prefer.

If it's between lynching you and Simon, I'd go for Simon, obviously.

Having another day in this game only helps if it's another day we can control.

I don't actually know what you're proposing.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:21 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:08 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:02 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:01 pmI moved my vote.

We can always lynch scum if you'd prefer.

If it's between lynching you and Simon, I'd go for Simon, obviously.

Having another day in this game only helps if it's another day we can control.

I don't actually know what you're proposing.

something cryptic and maybe not helpful at all in these circumstances, but a proposition nonetheless

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:25 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:21 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:08 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:02 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:01 pmI moved my vote.

We can always lynch scum if you'd prefer.

If it's between lynching you and Simon, I'd go for Simon, obviously.

Having another day in this game only helps if it's another day we can control.

I don't actually know what you're proposing.

something cryptic and maybe not helpful at all in these circumstances, but a proposition nonetheless

hm

Thanks for your offer

Let's lynch Simon.

I guess I like the Simon voters more. I'll go there. I think they're both bad. I have no real preference. Here's another short sentence. And another one. I can only make these. Because my cat is on my keyboard.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:09 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:07 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 pm You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

There is no case against simon, I for one am certain simon isn't bad, there's no reason to even lynch him. He's inactive!!!!

=/

I don’t share your level of certainty, my friend but I’d wager that your assessment of the situation is correct. At this point of the game with our numbers (theoretically, at least) approaching balance, I’m especially wary of ‘easy options’ like Simon.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:12 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:12 pm Its best to lynch mafia players who are still active now, rather than an inactive player imo.

That's a fair argument. I would consider them both to be active at least in that they can send night actions. You'll note that Simon voted late in the last day phase, and for you.

I voted for Lapluie too and I was wrong. I don’t think Simon making a wrong choice particularly in that instance (sorry, Lapluie) wasn’t necessarily understandable.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:50 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:08 pm @Glorfindel
@Marmot
@Made
@Long Con

Come back to kick butt thx

Sup fam!

I will begrudgingly get on board with a nutella lynch, but I really fear that following lapluie's advice again is going to turn out like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy's football.

If nutella flips Civ, I'll be voting lapluie forever.

No you won’t LC - she’s one of us.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

Lapluie is NOT Mafia.

Are scum tying the lynch ? Or are there any civil not voting Nutella after everything that happened ?

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:40 pm I guess I like the Simon voters more. I'll go there. I think they're both bad. I have no real preference. Here's another short sentence. And another one. I can only make these. Because my cat is on my keyboard.

You’ve taken your cat on a cruise to New Zealand? WTF?

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:17 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:40 pm I guess I like the Simon voters more. I'll go there. I think they're both bad. I have no real preference. Here's another short sentence. And another one. I can only make these. Because my cat is on my keyboard.

You’ve taken your cat on a cruise to New Zealand? WTF?

I don't leave until 5am on Saturday. But that's an interesting idea

Been trying to lynch Simon as a scumread for three days. It's bothering me that it's this hard. Dunya was not a better option. Nutella is not a better option. I stand by that.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm Are scum tying the lynch ? Or are there any civil not voting Nutella after everything that happened ?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:36 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm Are scum tying the lynch ? Or are there any civil not voting Nutella after everything that happened ?

Expand on that.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:33 pm Been trying to lynch Simon as a scumread for three days. It's bothering me that it's this hard. Dunya was not a better option. Nutella is not a better option. I stand by that.

Nutella is a better option. She has been called out by two Townies who are dead and confirmed. You can't go wrong with that.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:38 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:33 pm Been trying to lynch Simon as a scumread for three days. It's bothering me that it's this hard. Dunya was not a better option. Nutella is not a better option. I stand by that.

Nutella is a better option. She has been called out by two Townies who are dead and confirmed. You can't go wrong with that.

dislike

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:38 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:33 pm Been trying to lynch Simon as a scumread for three days. It's bothering me that it's this hard. Dunya was not a better option. Nutella is not a better option. I stand by that.

Nutella is a better option. She has been called out by two Townies who are dead and confirmed. You can't go wrong with that.

One of the townies was semi-confirmed wrong by Ermac. Dunya targeted Nutella with a roleblock, and no kill happened. However, Ermac's sock puppet said that a kill hit Glorfindel, and was blocked at the target. Unless Ermac was deliberately misleading us for literally no reason, Dunya's claim is debunk.

TSP had a tracker claim, and claimed that Nutella is bad. We've already talked about how unreliable tracker claims are, but I'll grant you this one. TSP said he was 85 percent sure. Assuming that TSP tracked Nutella on a night when she happened to visit a kill target, I'd give it 60% odds that she was the killer. If it was an obvious kill target, like Sloonei, then Nutella could have been visiting him for any number of non-protective town or scum reasons.

WE HAVE SAID THESE THINGS MULTIPLE TIMES

In the meantime, Jack, who is probably not a tracker, has all but said he has a guilty on Simon. Simon, who was off the poll yesterday. Simon, who probably got bussed on D3 until the same people that are trying to kill Nutella right now pushed onto Dunya for no reason.

Good god, people. We only have a tracker claim that could have been anything on Nutella. We have more openly apparent, reliable, and conclusive evidence for Simon. Lynch the kid.

. . .

Dayend isn't tonight. I thought we had like 30 minutes. I'll chill.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:52 pm . . .

Dayend isn't tonight. I thought we had like 30 minutes. I'll chill.

Oh woah I thought so too

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:52 pm . . .

Dayend isn't tonight. I thought we had like 30 minutes. I'll chill.

Oh woah I thought so too

We have a whole extra day to argue!

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:46 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:09 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:07 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 pm You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

There is no case against simon, I for one am certain simon isn't bad, there's no reason to even lynch him. He's inactive!!!!

=/

I don’t share your level of certainty, my friend but I’d wager that your assessment of the situation is correct. At this point of the game with our numbers (theoretically, at least) approaching balance, I’m especially wary of ‘easy options’ like Simon.

Mhm agreed, we will have to find out then, there's nothing more to say regarding nutella since I put it all on the table to be presented from tonys perspectives & info he's given us, so whatever happens tomorrow we'll definitely have answers.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:57 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:52 pm . . .

Dayend isn't tonight. I thought we had like 30 minutes. I'll chill.

Oh woah I thought so too

We have a whole extra day to argue!

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:02 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:57 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:52 pm . . .

Dayend isn't tonight. I thought we had like 30 minutes. I'll chill.

Oh woah I thought so too

We have a whole extra day to argue!

The reasons to read nutella and Simon as mafia are very similar.

It is impossible to comprehend a good reason to read Simon as a civilian at face value for his content.

It is perfectly reasonable to read nutella as a civilian at face value for her content.

Don’t understand the huge divide here.

Oh well. I think it’s more likely than not everyone is right and these wagons are mafia-mafia.

Has nutella posted this phase?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:16 pm Has nutella posted this phase?

No. Her most recent post was right before daystart. She's posted elsewhere since. Silenced?

Also, if folks want more conclusive evidence against Simon it already exists in yesterday’s poll shenanigans. I have little doubt that the mafia team coordinated he and I being removed together to encourage the perception that we’re teammates.

Either he gets lynched and I am wrongly lynched next, or I get lynched first and the perceived connection is severed (and he walks away looking better).

Preach, Speedchuck/Jimmy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:14 pm The reasons to read nutella and Simon as mafia are very similar.

It is impossible to comprehend a good reason to read Simon as a civilian at face value for his content.

It is perfectly reasonable to read nutella as a civilian at face value for her content.

Don’t understand the huge divide here.

Oh well. I think it’s more likely than not everyone is right and these wagons are mafia-mafia.

Lol

The logic here is flawless.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:05 pm Lol

The logic here is flawless.

What Marmot? What?