The Syndicate

Votes made in the poll are the official count--if a hammer is reached please screenshot it and send it to me.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm People have squinted at me for saying that I have "genuine" reads in the past, as if every read I share as town is supposed to be genuine.

So with that in mind, here's a read of unknown sincerity:

Vulgard is mafia.

I raise you: Enrique is a self-aligned third party bulletproof serial killer survivor.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:55 pm I'm going to do a host read here and say they'll rejoin us after N1 at the very latest. Having people sign up for your game and then be unable to do anything is pretty lame.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:19 pmWhat

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:16 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:15 pm I think Vulgard is playing day 1 in much the way that other people play day 1. means nothing.

What do you think about the people who piled on Vulgard then? Which of them look like opportunistic scum trying to throw shade to you, and which of them look like townies with legit suspicions?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:15 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:15 pm I think Vulgard is playing day 1 in much the way that other people play day 1. means nothing.

Which is...?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:46 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:40 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:16 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:15 pm I think Vulgard is playing day 1 in much the way that other people play day 1. means nothing.

What do you think about the people who piled on Vulgard then? Which of them look like opportunistic scum trying to throw shade to you, and which of them look like townies with legit suspicions?

1. I don’t agree with them (you).
2. funnygurl
3. I wouldn’t say anybody *looks* like that. I could buy most of them (you) individually. But I wouldn’t go as far as to say I’m getting a good vibe from anyone in this group.

What parts of FG's progression felt off to you?

it looks like you're trying to form reads and give an appearance of wolf hunting when a) it ain't really the time for it and b) your suspicions are of little substance atm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:50 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:44 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:40 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm People have squinted at me for saying that I have "genuine" reads in the past, as if every read I share as town is supposed to be genuine.

So with that in mind, here's a read of unknown sincerity:

Vulgard is mafia.

I can see it. Pre-slank excuse, mech chatter, and bland greetings.

I could see Vulgard being scum but mostly because their posting looks kinda carefully controlled to be as inoffensive and trigger people's scumdars as little as possible. I had a confused reaction to that mechanic as well so I don't blame them for the mech chatter, and I think pre-slank excuses are NAI. There are very few people (in general, but especially on the Syndicate) who roll scum and then go "alright! I'm going to go and give an excuse so I can coast through D1!" Not only is this just uncommon behavior, it's also suboptimal - you allow yourself to engage in some anti-town behavior, but in exchange you lose a lot of ability to gain trust and manipulate the town. Syndicate is not a site that is afraid to exe slankers and you will win a lot more games by powerwolfing than coasting.

But really, I like your angle on the pre-slank excuse. Vulgard is a Champs player if I'm not mistaken, and that would apply more to that type of player more than a casual player. I think mech chatter and bland greetings do fall under the "carefully controlled to be as inoffensive and trigger people's scumdars as little as possible" umbrella.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:42 pm @nutella you were one of the out-of-thread demi-gods in Assassin's Creed. What can you tell us about that experience?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:45 pm What do you mean by “theory meta”?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:19 pm @TonyStarkPrime @Poison what are your thoughts on this game's version of Vulgard compared to the version you saw in the previous game?

I lean scum on Sloonei right now because these questions don't feel like they have any solving intention behind them. They're just filling out his post count. The first one especially rubs me the wrong way. The only thing I assume about this Nanook game is that the out-of-thread element is not the same as his last game, because I expect Nanook to have a bit more creativity than that. I expect, at the very least, a fun twist on it that would intentionally subvert our assumptions based on the previous game. Standard 'sequel' stuff.

That said, I can't see what value Sloonei expected from that question. There's nothing alignment-indicative about the way nutella answers this, and there's probably little relevance to this game.

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:11 pm i stand corrected i think enrique's town

even though my ego has a booboo now

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:38 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:14 pm Your ass is mine, cupcake.

Hot damn

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:23 pm

Poison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:21 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm People have squinted at me for saying that I have "genuine" reads in the past, as if every read I share as town is supposed to be genuine.

So with that in mind, here's a read of unknown sincerity:

Vulgard is mafia.

After encounterimg your God reads in g9, I want to believe in it right away, if you are not a mafia yourself that is.

This post kinda pings me.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:33 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:24 pm why the hell am i scallions

bc I was gonna be racist and put chorizo or something but then i swapped out alison's

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:41 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:41 pm @Poison im a freakin walking human puzzle

no you're not you're a monkey wearing shades

GOT 'EM

Poison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:43 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:41 pm @Poison im a freakin walking human puzzle

Don't come near me, I have a bad reputation of losing puzzle pieces. If you lose your limbs or eyes, it's on you.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:19 pm Also @TonyStarkPrime, what do you make of this post from Vulcan? Particularly since they're voting for Poison, and those appear to be two of your primary suspects right now.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:02 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:23 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:18 am ...Wait. Why's Marmot selfvoting?

Why are you Marmotvoting?

Because I want Marmot to do something other than selfvote, although I suppose that me saying that now defeats the purpose of my vote.

Meh.

I'm not sure what to do about Poison. I'm in a weird situation here. I think her play this game has been close to her mafia play... in an off-site game I read, but NOT the last game I played with her here, when she was mafia and fooled me. I dislike the fact her reads seem rather forced, and she seems to be struggling to find her footing in this game. The biggest thing going for her right now is postcount, because it shows that she is not afraid of voicing her thoughts, but there hasn't really been anything in her posts that made me think "this must come from town." I'm also more paranoid of her scumgame after the last game we played.

Alison is town, because I think that her thought processes not only make perfect sense, but show a lack of TMI. I might be severely underestimating her scumgame, but I think the complexity of her thoughts would be difficult to replicate as mafia. I think that if she were mafia trying to fake these thoughts, the thoughts would make less sense. But what she is saying is cohesive, I understand where she is coming from (for the most part), and she is being fairly consistent. I wrote that I did not like her early townread on Long Con, and she mostly ignored it in a way I also found very towny. There is just this air of stubbornness and confidence around Alison which I really could hardly see as coming from mafia.

TSP is town because he's actually solving in this game and he wasn't really solving in his last one. Or at least, some of his posts looked like he was solving, which is a notable improvement in comparison to the last mafia game I have seen from him. That said, the read is getting weaker, because I'm starting to see him shift back to his "I do not actually care about solving" approach. I also find the lack of shitposting very odd. Could potentially be mafia overcompensating for how I caught him last game...?
For now, I think the differences are notable enough, and I think he still deserves a townread, but I can see a world where he's mafia trying to appease me specifically, since I caught him last game and got nightkilled right after. I didn't have 100% confidence in my last game read, but it was correct, and it makes sense for mafia!TSP to play specifically in a way to fool me here. Although, maybe I'm overestimating my potential impact.
I'm getting sidetracked. The conclusion here is that I'm still fairly confident TSP is town, but I do see a singular world where he's mafia. I don't really think he's mafia, though.

[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

I'm not going to get anything from Marmot if they always selfvote like this. Would still like to see more than a selfvote, though.

By the way, @Enrique; how new are you to the game? Or did you already say it and I missed it? There's a read I have on you which only applies in case you answer in a specific way. I'm not saying what it is yet.

I find the highlighted portion to be a bit counter the rest of the paragraph. 1) Someone being unafraid to voice their thoughts looks civ to me. 2) If they're not afraid to voice their thoughts, how can said player also be forcing reads and not saying anything the reeks town?

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:07 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:59 pm
If I'm understanding a sleep vote correctly, wouldn't they be exactly the same? Why would it feel worse?

You're assigning a lot of intent to my actions that aren't actually accurate.

well, since I haven't assigned any intent, I'm not so sure about that. who knows what goes on in the head of a marmot? :P If I have to speculate on intent, though...

I guess to me a sleep vote is an explicit statement that you think killing no one is the best choice, but a vote for LC after reading his dayvig and his flip can come across like you're throwing your vote

idk what The Syndicate does but vote assessments are common in my experience, so knowing where you put your vote and why can be important

without context or explanation, a vote for LC can be later assessed as "marmot is just doing their own thing and not involving themselves in the game state," especially if coupled with joke-y meme-y retorts to random posts

and that will inevitably look scummier than someone with bad reads, or someone who's just coasting, or someone who looks a little mechanically iffy, since someone not involving themselves in the game is ultimately someone who is anti-town

I'm not saying that's what you're doing, more so just saying that my personal expectations are that people will at least have started doing some real activity at the precipice of EOD

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:18 pm

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:13 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:42 am @Poison who is mafia?

Hmm.. I don't know the answer yet. I think I don't see Alison as bad as I was seeing her before. I'll be reading the thread again.

I visited mac last night but nothing happened. I wonder if it is because of my role's probabilities or it had something to do with him being outside the thread rn.

If you had to guess right now, who would it be? Snap judgement, no reading required.

The fact that both Alison and Mac were taken out of the thread makes me suspect some old cats here who would like to remove their obstacles from the thread in case they get caught??

If I go by that, my snap judgement would be either you or nutella... I TR TSP So I don't think he falls under this list specifically.

No idea about enrique and Marmot from this perspective

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:27 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:26 pmnutella good

What is your read list btw?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:33 pm (I appear to have lost power, will give a flip in a bit, thank you for your patience)

Vulgard (6): alison, Nutella, mac, sloonei, marmot, poison
Poison (4): TSP, vulgard, Enrique, syn
Not voting (1): FG

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:19 pm Vulgard ISO

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:33 am Oh yeah, hi TSP, Poison, LC. The others I haven't played with yet, but I'm looking forward to it.
Will get back here when there's stuff to work with.

Greets Tony and Poison, along with LC. These are apparently the only three players he has prior experience with. Okay.

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:04 pm I don't like Alison's thin read on Long Con, I don't think it's reasonable to townread him for such a thing this early.

I like Sloonei, though. I like how he's already hardcore solving, and he's doing that in a way which doesn't come across as forced.
To answer his question -- I'm honestly not sure how to answer it at this point, because my playstyle tends to be pretty fluid. I usually try to find mafia and/or town through macro reads, and when I want to push a mafia, I case them, like I did last game. This means that I am invariably stumbling around blind on day 1 and only later developing the ability to find people's alignments with higher confidence.

TL;DR Focus on macro reads, gets better as the game goes on, usually.

Harsh stance on Alison for her town read on LC. Even taking LC out of the equation, I think this is a good look for Alison; this is Vulgard's first substantial stance of the game, and it is pointedly anti-Alison. When you throw in that he's shading her for townreading his teammate, I find it extra unlikely that Alison is aligned with Vulgard/LC here. That's some deep dive distancing right off the bat.

He also instantly maneuvers to a townread on me. Either he's trying to pocket me or is acknowledging that I won't be a viable push this game (or he and LC coordinated behind the scenes to take opposite stances on me). Just noting this in case it reflects on any of his other reads elsewhere.

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:09 pm [VOTE: Syn] aubergine

I checked again and they have done nothing within their five posts. These posts were all spent on talking about themselves, their first post was a comment about the OP (which is not really game-related and is unlikely to out you as mafia when you talk about it as mafia), and they come across as trying to seem relaxed in the thread. Which is probably why they are spending so much time on "settling in."

I liked nutella's start, but I have some respect for their wolfgame, so I'm not going to pull an Alison and make a weakly supported solid townread on her out of nowhere.

This post is formatted exactly the same as the previous one, but with a vote this time. Vulgard opens with a paragraph about why he suspects Player A (Syn) and then writes a second, unrelated paragraph dedicated to town-reading Player B (nutella). I assume nutella is town. Syn was town. I am town. 3/4 names from these two posts are town right there. I will assume Alison is as well. 4/4.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:10 pm Not really feeling Funnygurl's posts either. They feel too shitposty. Like, not in a way that comes from town. Does she always do that?

Does Vulgard treat his teammate like this? No one was really pressuring funnygurl at this point. Vulgard was starting to feel some heat at this point, though. This feels a bit too early for a panic bus on his part. Tentative good look for funnygurl. He substantiates his point here.

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:22 pm

Funnygurl555 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:14 pm actually my first real read is that vulgard is fishing 'cause look at their read on alison too

you're gonna need more to catch alison as a wolf she's a goat

What do you mean by "fishing?"
And I don't know that. I haven't seen Alison play at all.

This does not feel like a staged interaction between teammates. funnygurl's tone is much more aggressive. Vulgard responds a bit timidly, turning her read into a question and then shrugging. If they are partners, I expect them to be a bit closer in tone here. For reference, Vulgard's next post is a similar response to Syn:

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:23 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:12 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:09 pm [VOTE: Syn] aubergine

I checked again and they have done nothing within their five posts. These posts were all spent on talking about themselves, their first post was a comment about the OP (which is not really game-related and is unlikely to out you as mafia when you talk about it as mafia), and they come across as trying to seem relaxed in the thread. Which is probably why they are spending so much time on "settling in."

I liked nutella's start, but I have some respect for their wolfgame, so I'm not going to pull an Alison and make a weakly supported solid townread on her out of nowhere.

what kind of opportunistic hogwash is this

Of course my posts are going to talk about me when I was responding to someone specifically asking me about my play style. Bro what

I also seem to recall Alison doing something similar. What stopped you from calling her comment "opportunistic hogwash?"

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:38 am #124 This is not alignment indicative for me, I always do this.

#153 Mostly the posts about me.

#165 Very aubergine.

Post #124 is funnygurl's response to the above post. She again comes off as the aggressor here, and Vulgard is clearly on the defensive in his response. I do not think this is what distancing looks like: vulgard initiated it, but funnygurl immediately spun it back around on him. If they are distancing, I would expect it to be move more consistently in one direction; Vulgard starts as the aggressor and maintains that role throughout, with only slight pushback from funnygurl. Instead, Vulgard made one point about funnygurl, and she immediately started wielding that to push her own suspicion against him, and his only response was to duck and cover.

153 is Alison challenging Vulgard's read on me. His response is similarly flat.
165 is me unvoting.

Spoiler: show

I honestly don’t understand what’s happening in the thread. It feels like everyone is just doing their own thing (e.g. shitposting / talking about out-of-game stuff). Which is not exactly unusual, but it makes it hard to find mafia.

Alison has really, really leveled up since I first expressed my dislike of her posts. I currently think she’s way more likely town than I did before.

Poison is weird this game. She seems a bit… muted. The preflip in post #299 is also very, very odd. It seems to imply that Syn is town and one of me/Alison is mafia voting Syn, which is a bold assumption to make and possibly indicative of TMI. I know it is thrown out as some kind of “hot take,” but it still feels awful to me.

Marmot’s first post is kinda towny, but my snapreads are legendarily bad, so I won’t rely on them too much.

Let's compare these three player assessments. Alison has "really, really leveled up"; i.e., she looks much better now than she did before. Okay.
Poison "is weird... muted... very, very odd." She possibly has TMI and it "feels awful" despite the hedge about the "hot take."
Marmot is "kinda towny" but we're just gonna chuck that read out of the window because

If one of these is Vulgard's teammate, it's Poison. The Alison read reads as a wolf surrendering on a push against a civilian who has become obvious. Marmot is town because "I read my teammate as town for no reason but I don't care about this read so I'm gonna ignore it and then vote for them" is not a thing that happens.
Poison gets three vaguely negative adjectives applied to her ("weird, muted, odd") before we get to the meaty part of the read, which is itself filled with erinaceous (this is a word and we're gonna make it catch on) language: "It seems...", "possibly indicative..." "I know x, but y." Given the conviction behind Vulgard's previous suspicions (Alison, Syn), the softness of this read makes it feel like he is hesitating and trying not to come off too strong. Also, this is his first mention of Poison in his ISO. Marmot as well, but Poison had been much more active than Marmot to this point.

Spoiler: show

#345 I literally caught you on that last game.

#350 Is another one of Syn’s takes which I hate. What do you mean, “town for flooding?”

I like what Tony’s doing.

I also think Mac’s towny. Can’t really explain why, though.

I think I’m sitting on something like Sloonei, Mac, TSP, Alison town, Poison and Syn sketchy. Marmot maybe town based on a snapread.

345 is a response to Tony criticizing Vulgard's suspicion of funnygurl. Vulgard seems to misunderstand that Tony (I think?) is commenting specifically on funnygurl. For some reason I feel like that's a good look for her. Maybe it's because Vulgard just seems to be pushing blindly here. If they are partners, he is being given an out to townread her but he doesn't notice.

The next two lines here are wacky and would have pointed strongly to Syn being town if he hadn't been town. He criticizes Syn for town-reading Tony, then in the very next line says, "I like what Tony's doing." Meh. Tony's town too.
He slaps a blank town read on Mac and arrives at the following breakdown of reads:
Sloonei
Mac
Tony
Alison
Marmot
Poison
Syn

Absent from this list: nutella, Long Con, funnygurl, Enrique.

funnygurl is town. Vulgard started a push on her earlier and then completely forgot about it when she fought back. If they are teammates, they are making a concentrated effort to distance from each other. Vulgard doesn't then forget to name her in his lsit of reads. We know that Long Con is Vulgard's partner because nutella shot him, so we can cross those two names off. That leaves us with Enrique, whose name, as far as I can tell, has not appeared once in Vulgard's ISO to this point.

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:12 am I'm not sure what to think about Mac. I like his aggressive pop-ins, but this feels like the type of thing he could do as mafia as well.
Would like to see him provide something more than that.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:17 am I'd like to hear the take on nutella specifically, because he posted about it and seemed to immediately change his mind after. I'm not sure what prompted the change. I read that segment a few times and don't really understand the thought process.

First substantial mentions of Mac get an "Idk" and some more hedgy language with a prompt to throw further shade on nutella. This strikes me as a mafioso hoping that he can goad a vocal civilian into drumming up suspicion on another vocal civilian.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:18 am [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Out of left field, here's a vote for Marmot! Then pay attention to the following sequence, all of which follows this vote:

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:18 am ...Wait. Why's Marmot selfvoting?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:02 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:23 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:18 am ...Wait. Why's Marmot selfvoting?

Why are you Marmotvoting?

Because I want Marmot to do something other than selfvote, although I suppose that me saying that now defeats the purpose of my vote.

This is where I decided I could vote for Vulgard for sure yesterday. "[VOTE: " -> "I just noticed Marmot is self-voting, wtf?" -> "I am voting for Marmot because he is self-voting." This is not a progression that makes sense. This is not the kind of progression that Mafia #1 uses to push against Mafia #2. This is a mafioso who is trying to push a low-hanging fruit for reasons that are self-evidently bogus.

He follows that up with this:] aubergine

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:02 pm[VOTE: I'm not sure what to do about Poison. I'm in a weird situation here. I think her play this game has been close to her mafia play... in an off-site game I read, but NOT the last game I played with her here, when she was mafia and fooled me. I dislike the fact her reads seem rather forced, and she seems to be struggling to find her footing in this game. The biggest thing going for her right now is postcount, because it shows that she is not afraid of voicing her thoughts, but there hasn't really been anything in her posts that made me think "this must come from town." I'm also more paranoid of her scumgame after the last game we played.

Alison is town, because I think that her thought processes not only make perfect sense, but show a lack of TMI. I might be severely underestimating her scumgame, but I think the complexity of her thoughts would be difficult to replicate as mafia. I think that if she were mafia trying to fake these thoughts, the thoughts would make less sense. But what she is saying is cohesive, I understand where she is coming from (for the most part), and she is being fairly consistent. I wrote that I did not like her early townread on Long Con, and she mostly ignored it in a way I also found very towny. There is just this air of stubbornness and confidence around Alison which I really could hardly see as coming from mafia.

TSP is town because he's actually solving in this game and he wasn't really solving in his last one. Or at least, some of his posts looked like he was solving, which is a notable improvement in comparison to the last mafia game I have seen from him. That said, the read is getting weaker, because I'm starting to see him shift back to his "I do not actually care about solving" approach. I also find the lack of shitposting very odd. Could potentially be mafia overcompensating for how I caught him last game...?
For now, I think the differences are notable enough, and I think he still deserves a townread, but I can see a world where he's mafia trying to appease me specifically, since I caught him last game and got nightkilled right after. I didn't have 100% confidence in my last game read, but it was correct, and it makes sense for mafia!TSP to play specifically in a way to fool me here. Although, maybe I'm overestimating my potential impact.
I'm getting sidetracked. The conclusion here is that I'm still fairly confident TSP is town, but I do see a singular world where he's mafia. I don't really think he's mafia, though.

[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

I'm not going to get anything from Marmot if they always selfvote like this. Would still like to see more than a selfvote, though.

By the way, @Enrique; how new are you to the game? Or did you already say it and I missed it? There's a read I have on you which only applies in case you answer in a specific way. I'm not saying what it is yet.] aubergine

[VOTE: The paragraph about Poison, once again, meanders around as the verbal equivalent to a series of shrugs. "I'm not sure... I'm in a weird situation...I think x but not y... her reads seem... and she seems... The biggest thing going for her is x, but... I'm paranoid because of past experience." Vulgard starts and ends this read on shaky ground, and never stops trembling in between. I have not seen him exhibit so much uncertainty when presenting his reads on any other player this game. Instead he says things like, "I don't like Alison's thin read on Long Con, I don't think it's reasonable to townread him for such a thing this early" or "I checked again and they (Syn) have done nothing within their five posts" or "I want Marmot to do something other than selfvote."
Hell, if you read the two town-reads in this same post (on Alison and Tony), his language is much less shaky. He caps it off with a vote for Poison. I'll also take this opportunity to note that Vulgard has mentioned Poison in exactly two posts so far. Both times, he has shaded her with his hedgerows and padded that read against two other reads on different players in the same post. Let's all act like the Rule of 3 is a rock solid scum tell now.

He caps the post by giving up on the Marmot post and acknowledging Enrique's existence for the first time to ask what his level of experience is. That could be staged. If it's not, then I think it's a very good look for Enrique. Presumably if these two had access to a private channel, Vulgard would have some familiarity with Enrique. But this would not be a particularly difficult thing to stage. I don't know if it is though. My general impression of Vulgard is that he was unable to get his feet under him in this game. Tacking on a random disassociating message for his partner at the end of a post like this would be a fairly composed move for a player in the position I'm projecting onto him here.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:03 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:03 pm [VOTE: We're at three "second votes being placed on someone" from vulgard now] aubergine

[VOTE:

And that matters... why? What do you think this means about my alignment? Or Alison's alignment, or Poison's?
This comment looks really random. Why does this matter to you?] aubergine

[VOTE: Welcome to Tonytown.] aubergine

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:04 pm [VOTE: @Sloonei Have you explained why you're voting Mac at any point?] aubergine

[VOTE: He asks me to talk about my vote for Mac. I hadn't done that. I never had any reason to be voting for Mac, I just left it there for a while to see if anything would come of it. This is question is all that there was. I essentially answered the question with a flat "No" and Vulgard never followed up. It doesn't tell me a whole lot. On one hand, he could be trying to get me to provide him with an avenue to vote for Mac. On the other, he could be asking me to make a case against his partner as an indirect distancing tactic. I have no particular reason to read this one way or the other. I think Mac is town outside of this moment.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:28 am [VOTE: Alright, great job.
Sloonei and nutella are pretty clearly town to me at this point. I did tell you that Sloonei was solvy in a non-bad-faith way, now you can probably see it.
Nutella dayvigged a mafia. Locktown, reevaluate maybe in LyLo but I doubt she lives that long if town.
More confident about TSP being town now as well.

I'll go into LC spew, too. A part of me doesn't like Mac being like "everyone but Syn and Vulgard is mafia based on LC spew" because that seems like a cop-out response and could possibly lead to chainyeets on town. It feels like he tried to push agenda immediately following his partner kicking the bucket.] aubergine

[VOTE: Vulgard's immediate response to LC getting hardcore f'd is to shade Mac. Good look for Dougall.

Big post of LC analysis which largely confirms reads I've already arrived at. I'll pull a few snippets that are relevant.] aubergine

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[VOTE: Interactions with Poison feel VERY W/W. Neither of them is really trying to suspect the other, nor are they trying to openly townread the other. When they interact, there is no attempt to solve each other that I can see. They talk about some previous games and about being happy to meet each other in this game. It's like they already know the other's alignment in their minds.] aubergine

[VOTE: This is the first negative stance he has taken in the post. I awarded Mac a town-lean in the previous post because I do not think Vulgard's immediate response to losing a partner mid-Day 1 would be to start bussing his other (assuming a 3-person mafia team because starting the game at 8 vs 4 in-thread is wacky). This point on Poison is slightly different because it's tucked into a much larger analytical post that Vulgard has more time to think about. But it still does give me pause that he's singling her out as a suspect in this instance. Not enough to undo the existing suspicion I have against her, but enough for me to stop and think for a moment. God knows I'm not thinking otherwise.] aubergine

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[VOTE: More defending of Syn. Feels like whiteknighting, but I could see that being distancing. "Also, it's Syn's first game on the site, so it would be especially predatory for them to dive on together." Better look for Syn.

Defending Marmot as well. LC defends plenty of people I would say are "easy targets to push" in this game. I don't think he would whiteknight all of them as mafia. Looking primarily at Syn/Marmot here (sorry if me calling you that offends you).] aubergine

[VOTE: He works pretty hard to arrive at a slight suspicion on Marmot. This looks like he's trying to shade a low-hanging but not-overtly-suspicious town rodent.] aubergine

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[VOTE: Noting that LC slowly shifts into "scumreading Poison" after the threadflow goes in that direction, instead of progressing his read on her by himself. He doesn't really push Poison very hard, either. He did something similar with me earlier, and then he promptly forgot about me after the thread shifted away from me. Both these pushes were most likely in bad faith, and what differentiates the push on Poison from the push on me is that he didn't really try to solve Poison's alignment for over 10 pages, until he was forced to. For me, he instantly decided I'm mafia, then backtracked and... forgot about it?

It feels more like he slowly leaned into pushing on Poison when he really did not want to, meanwhile it came very easy for him to push on me before forgetting about me as a target. I think this says that Poison's pretty likely mafia.

I'm also noting the random shade on Mac at the end, but it's nowhere near enough to say that Mac's spewed town as a result.] aubergine

[VOTE: He continues to be committed to shading Poison. My point has not changed. Enough to give me pause, but not nearly enough to remove her as a suspect. This is coming too little too late. I don't think he's really in a position, if Poison is his teammate, to not suspect her here. He had already started to lay the groundwork for that read prior to LC's flip, and he's going to be able to see the agenda in all their interactions clearly, and he can also see the direction the thread is moving at this time. To suddenly do a 180 on Poison here could be a death sentence for each of them.
The shade on Mac comes across more softly. He has very little to say about it, but makes a point to leave Mac in the POE. It's a passing mention at best. My gut says he doesn't even bother to say so little if Mac is his partner. Either go big or go home there.] aubergine

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[VOTE: Conclusions:

Syn/Marmot might contain 1 mafia based on how LC decided to defend/WK both (and shade one).
Poison is very likely mafia, which aligns with my independent read on her. Kill Poison today.
Alison and Sloonei (and nutella) are certainly town based on LC spew and other factors. Pretty sure he spewed me town as well.
Interaction with TSP is very weird but doesn't really point me in either direction. Same with the Mac interaction.

Don't need to change my vote.] aubergine

[VOTE: Syn/Marmot contains 0 mafia.
Poison is indeed very likely mafia.
Agreed that Alison and nutella are cleared by LC's flip.
Interaction with TSP pretty clearly pointed to TSP being town, so I disagree there. I also don't remember being able to do much with Mac, but the fact that Vulgard is making a point to dangle his name as a suspect here feels good.
No clues as the the whereabouts of funnygurl and Enrique.] aubergine

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Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:46 am [VOTE: Having done this, I find it really suspicious that Mac instantly went "LC spewed everyone but Syn and Vulgard town, let's kill Syn and Vulgard." Really feels like a bad-faith opportunistic push and I hate it.
I'd like to focus on Mac after we get Poison.] aubergine

[VOTE: I can very easily read this as "Once I've bussed my teammate, we should probably look at poor innocent MacDougall next."] aubergine

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Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:47 am [VOTE: Funnygurl still voting for No Yeet is unfortunately >rand town unless she does this stupid stuff as mafia too.] aubergine

[VOTE: A late funnygurl spotting. It almost comes out as a town-read, but he can't quite force himself to get all the way there.

----
Rainbow list based purely on these interactions, including the removed players:
nutella
Tony
funnygurl
Alison
Marmot
Mac
Enrique
Poison] aubergine

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:34 pm @Enrique if we're wrong about Poison, who should we look at next?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:38 pm

Enrique wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:36 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:34 pm @Enrique if we're wrong about Poison, who should we look at next?

If we're wrong about Poison, if it's anyone currently in the thread, I think it would have to be Funnygurl. I think there's a decent chance that we'll get a bunch of new players we haven't had the chance to read though and hopefully they'll be armed with useful information.

Why funnygurl?

I was wary of her earlier in the day, but I think Vulgard's progression on her in particular makes her look very, very good.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:48 pm fair enough

yeah I'm certainly not clearing enrique then

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now we wait and see if my conditional vig works on him