The Syndicate

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:33 am CFD. For the fourth night in a row. No thanks I'll stick with speed.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:25 am I like the people on JJJ much more, so I'm swtiching over. JJJ

his vote is on speed for a while, then when it becomes clear that Jay is taking the lead again he hops on!



I'm sold sloonei let's do this

Can you tell me exactly what the vote tally was at the time you voted?

Dunya, you're making a bit of a mess with all that tinfoil, lol. It's good that you have some healthy skepticism and are actually thinking about me, but thinking I'm Jay's teammate is pretty nuts at this point, and I think you might have missed some stuff I said on Day 1 as well. I expressed that I knew the lynch was going to be a tie at a certain point, and I heavily hinted a second time which caused Kyle to change his vote. I've done pretty much everything but explicitly out myself, but I think several people picked up on it.

As for the Jack/Sloonei poll, you are forgetting about Chimborazo. I posted a couple of theories on what happened that day-- go back and read my posts from after the no-lynch.

As for not being nightkilled, I'm not too surprised honestly. When someone is more or less confirmed/generally accepted town, mafia often leave them be for a while because they are likely to be protected or because they don't want to do what is expected and maybe go for another common town read (i.e. Spacedaisy) and, as Epi pointed out, probably someone with an ability they can and want to eliminate (i.e. Spacedaisy). Plus if I'm naming them correctly as suspects they are less likely to kill me right away -- and actually I intentionally the "in case I die/I'm afraid I might die" bit in the hope that it would actually make them less inclined to kill me.

Plus I just don't understand how you can think I was bussing Jay, lol. I was the first to vote for him on both day 3 and day 4. I got the suspicion of him rolling toward the end of day 3 (and I did call it a symbolic vote at first because I thought it was too late in the day and didn't expect people to join onto him as a possible CFD against dom/mesk but I was pleased when some people did). And maybe you're right that I never really explicitly stated much reason to suspect him, but that's because once the suspicion got going on him the Mesk lynch craziness had happened and I felt like it was more or less obvious from then on. But I started to really suspect him during that lynch, and even though I think I GTHed him good in his GTH exercise, I had been already starting to question him because he hadn't been playing like his normal self -- DDL's post where he compared Jay's and Sloonei's styles really solidified that for me, as did Jay's defeat-y post at the beginning of D4.

I'm still waffling quite a bit on Bob... Sloonei's confidence really encourages me but little things keep giving me pause. I am very interested in looking into LC or Kyle as possible Jay buddies.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:40 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:26 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:23 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:12 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:04 pm @Epignosis

these are the basics

No thanks. Your examples showed me all I need to know regarding the credibility of that link.

No like I'm actually pretty sure you could improve your critical thinking skills if you studied symbolic logic a little. You wouldn't fall into circular logic traps and stuff like that as much. I'm not even joking.

In any case from now on whenever I have to explain anything to you that you should reasonably already know as an English teacher you're going to owe me $50 of out of state tuition for for every hour I have to spend responding to you.

You called an analogy a metaphor.

Fuck outta here.

The difference between an analogy and a metaphor is negligible as long as you knew what I meant, which you clearly did. The sole purpose for language is to communicate ideas and concepts so mission accomplished.

I never said I was a good teacher. I'm just telling you the arrangement. If you're going to waste any more of my time with semantics discussions I should get something out of it right?

It's just how things are now, sorry I don't make the rules.

Your acceptance that words mean whatever people think they mean as long as they can assume the person whom they are communicating to will understand them is one reason people are such shitty communicators anymore.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:34 pmIt's just how things are now, sorry I don't make the rules.

If you studied prescriptivism and descriptivism, that's really, really, funny.

I really don't want to have this argument again

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:11 pm I'm going to leave Kylemii alone to let him do his thing. I think we tangled enough and got off on a damn tangent, and I respect his resoluteness even if we disagree on certain things. I do want to hear other people's opinions about my grievances though.

Moving on.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:07 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:47 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:44 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:42 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:37 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:35 pmWhat do we think of LC? He was early to adopt the J3 suspicion last cycle but voted Speed. I recall thinking he was bad previous and now something isn't sitting right.

I don't recall adopting the JJJ suspicion. Are you sure your memories of that are accurate?

Lemme double cherck.

Chercking is what happens when a jerk checks. jk

You right. Idk what made me think you agreed with it. Bad feeling about LC absolved.

Somebody read this whole exchange. Now look at the below:

JaggedJimmyJa
3
18%
Voters: Epignosis, nutella, Long Con

The hell?

Yyyyyeeeeaaahhhhh. LC is currently number one most likely to get my vote tomorrow.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:51 pm
Yeah, I changed to JJJ in the last couple of minutes of that lynch. Wilgy called me an early adopter of the JJJ suspicion, which wasn't true.

...Actually, in your words, you didn't recall adopting the JJJ suspicion... at all. You didn't specify "early" as what you were denying. But you voted for JJJ on day 3 when I encouraged people to switch to him at the end, and yet you never said anything about suspecting JJJ before or after that and you voted for speed on day 4. Something's not adding up here.

Let's take a look at LC's day 3 game of "around-the-world"

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:52 pm Dammit epi, you inspired me.

vote dom

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:22 am Yeah, the Dom lynch will give zero info. I'll go Mesk.

*vote Mesk*

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:36 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:34 am come on LC (or kyle or quin or wilgy) join usss

This is pretty convincing.

....Ok man


Linki: Oh, you didn't like the idea of voting for dom or mesk after all, huh? So much for that "inspiration"

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:15 am LC's vote for Jay would have put him in line to be lynched had I not jumped over to mesk. I just remembered this. Immediate reaction is that's a good look, but not as good as it would be for other players.

Hmmm yeah actually I do remember being annoyed at your switch because I think it would have been a tie otherwise? at least? maybe? hmmm.... I keep having trouble puzzling this stuff out and now I'm hesitant about both bob and LC (and generally hesitant about a lot of potential suspects)

RIP Jack.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:49 pm Another question for people who are good at analyzing this sort of thing: Why might Jack have been killed? He was still on a lot of people's radar and has been a controversial figure for much of the game.

He was after myself and Quin most recently, as well as malakim.

Maybe they had a role in mind for him? I certainly had a role in mind for Jack, though it's only a moderately threatening one for the scum.


I'm cool with *voting Malakim*. Still waffling quite a bit on Bob, Kyle, LC, and Wilgy.

Oh and Eloh. Her thing with LC this morning was pingy.

Aaand I keep forgetting about Quin. He's still on the table. (Honestly if he turns out to be scum I'll be mad that he made it this long since I've suspected him for basically the entire game and he keeps managing to stay under the main radar)

Sloonei tinfoil is definitely interesting (especially considering his Mesk vote switch that saved jay), but I thought that pretty much all of the theories as to how he survived Day 2 involved him being town. Unless... wait, there is one possibility. Hold on, I'm rethinking everything I had in mind for Jack and Sloonei and recalculating.... hmm I'll have to think about this more, it's really confusing. Bottom line is I think the chances of Sloonei being bad are very, very, very slim.

Tbh the way Quin kinda just tagged malakim on as an afterthought when Kyle asked who he might vote for today was super fishy. I'm inclined to go through with the mal lynch today and if he does indeed flip bad Quin will most likely be next on my priority list.

Because you had previously listed Kyle and eloh, but then this time you decided to add malakim since he's getting lynched. Beep beep the bus is here

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:08 pm And the part where I've already explained my suspicion of malakim - where did that go?

I'm on mobile rn so can't easily iso, but if you're just referring to your response to Kyle above, that doesn't count because it came after. I'll look later into what you may or may not have said about malakim at earlier stages.

None of what you just said contradicts any of the reasons I suspect you. I am not doubting that you now think mal looks bad. I am just wondering if you are his teammate and decided it was time to admit that he looks bad.

whoa K2 is back! well that changes a couple things I thought haha

It's in the place of Epignosis, meaning Epi was removed from the poll.

Well shit. That result is disappointing. And specifically the Chimborazo flip kills a few of my theories on what happened on day 2... but I think there are still more sloonei-civ explanations that make more sense than sloonei-bad ones.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:27 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:46 pm On the Bob thing.

I don't feel anything bad about Bob. But so far I've just read Sloonei's posts and thought "he had a point". I agree with Sloonei's points, but not hard enough to think Bob is definite scum. I'm suspecting Bob by proxy. But I don't want to ISO Bob myself because I'll probably just confirmation bias my way into voting him.

But while I was showering now, I had a thought. It's weird that Sloonei is tunneling so hard on Bob and yet nobody else is caring too much....

For the record, I always considered myself as potentially following a bob lynch, based on a leap of faith in Sloonei's ability... but I never felt my skirt blown up by the case against him.

^I feel similarly re: bob

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:47 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:41 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:37 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:28 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:25 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:57 pm Well shit. That result is disappointing. And specifically the Chimborazo flip kills a few of my theories on what happened on day 2... but I think there are still more sloonei-civ explanations that make more sense than sloonei-bad ones.

I feel like you are treating this additional information, which could be a crucial piece to solving the game and/or nailing down Sloonei's alignment, as a negative. Sure, lynching a Civ is not good, but this knowledge might help us win.

eeegeeggggghhhhh

And do you consider this to be possibly alignment indicative?

For whom?

nutella

Well, since you brought it up, it moves the needle two hairs from 'Town' to 'Scum' for nutella, based on the idea that a reaction that doesn't seem quite right to me evokes feelings of possible fakery.

LC this is bullshit and you know it, lol. Of course I'm disappointed that we lynched a townie. But you're right, the flip is interesting information, which is exactly what I was puzzling out in that post.

I really don't understand how my post, which uses the information of the flip to deduce possibilities for another player's alignment, disregards that the flip is useful information for solving the game. What planet are you on?

I think DDL's observation would be much stronger "evidence" against Bob had Mal flipped bad. But Mal was town, and by far an easier wagon for baddies to latch onto. Idk, I guess I'm still undecided on Bob, but I'm mostly down with lynching him tomorrow... I'm too uncertain of which of my pool of potential suspects are the most likely and I feel like with any of them I'll be afraid of mislynching

Actually either way DDL's observation is fairly weak in the face of the Mal wagon. Given how early the lynch was more or less a foregone conclusion (and I think most players knew they wouldn't be around for EOD and were happy piling on Mal early), even if Mal had been bad it would have been far too easy to bus him and I just don't think I could imagine a version of yesterday involving a serious push against the Mal lynch. I honestly think DDL's observation is fairly NAI for Bob considering how the last couple lynches have actually gone down. I think in other situations I would readily agree with Sloonei that it's pretty strong evidence, but in the context of this game specifically I don't think it holds much water.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:10 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:52 pm Actually either way DDL's observation is fairly weak in the face of the Mal wagon. Given how early the lynch was more or less a foregone conclusion (and I think most players knew they wouldn't be around for EOD and were happy piling on Mal early), even if Mal had been bad it would have been far too easy to bus him and I just don't think I could imagine a version of yesterday involving a serious push against the Mal lynch. I honestly think DDL's observation is fairly NAI for Bob considering how the last couple lynches have actually gone down. I think in other situations I would readily agree with Sloonei that it's pretty strong evidence, but in the context of this game specifically I don't think it holds much water.

I started pushing bob on Night 3

So? Notice how I said "how the last couple lynches have gone" -- Day 4 also went down in such a way that I'm not surprised there wasn't more of a push against bob.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:04 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:26 pmLC this is bullshit and you know it, lol. Of course I'm disappointed that we lynched a townie. But you're right, the flip is interesting information, which is exactly what I was puzzling out in that post.

Ok, first off, here's what I see:

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:26 pmLC this is bullshit, but you're right...

But let's dissect the whole thing to make sure I'm understanding.

1. What is bullshit, if I'm right? Are you talking about speedchuck's idea that I'm suspecting you for something? In that case, I agree 100% - that's bullshit, and I do indeed know it.

2. Where did I imply that lynching a townie is ok? Of course you're disappointed we lynched a townie. I know that. What I didn't understand was your negativity toward the Chim-whatever flip killing certain theories. That's a good thing.

To put it another way: Your post would have made more sense to me if it had looked like this:

alternatenutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:57 pm Well shit. That result is disappointing. On the flip side, the Chimborazo flip kills a few of my theories on what happened on day 2... but I think there are still more sloonei-civ explanations that make more sense than sloonei-bad ones.

Very slight difference, but it highlights your feelings on the info in a totally different way.

This is such a waste of time. If you believe I'm town why are you putting time and effort into this incredibly anal argument rather than hunting scum? I'll answer just because your points don't make any sense and I stand for nothing if not truth and clarity.

1. The bullshit was your claim that I was being overly negative. I expressed a negative reaction to the result, which we seem to agree is warranted. I then expressed that the result affected some thoughts I had on roles/mechanics/previous game events. Maybe part of the disappointment carried over just in that I had thought I had Day 2/some roles figured out and was disappointed that I was wrong. But since I stated my conclusion that I still think Sloonei is most likely town, it didn't end up making that huge a difference either way.

2. Where did I imply that you implied that lynching a townie is ok? Wtf? I do not even understand what is prompting your question. Nowhere did I imply that you implied that. And again, you are greatly exaggerating my "negativity" in the rest of my comment. Your rephrase does nothing for me and I stand by the way I phrased it as making more sense in my mind. Like I said, it's reasonable that I would have been somewhat disappointed to find out that I was wrong, not to mention somewhat disappointed at the loss of the specific town role that we had lynched in addition to the fact that we lynched a townie. And I will admit that the rest of my post is the result of a thought process that I didn't write out -- for a few minutes I was thinking that the Chimborazo flip made Sloonei much more likely to be bad, but another look through the roles reminded me of other town possibilities for him and Jack (fwiw I had thought Jack was Chimborazo, not Sloonei, but it connects don't worry too much about it).


Anyway I'm done with this conversation and with your empty nitpicky nonsense. It's distracting from actually solving the game. What do you think about bob?

How about you stop dwelling on how useless your content has been and answer my question about bob?

Hmm.. well as far as we know, there's
-Aconcagua: immune to the first attempt on their life (lynch or NK)
[-Chimborazo: could have stolen Aconcagua's ability at some point, but seems highly unlikely as Dom/Malakim would have been an unlikely nk target]
-Kilimanjaro: can make themself immune to night actions 3x/game
-Mont Blanc: can switch targets 1x/game
(-Matterhorn: secrets)
(-Olympus Mons: secrets)

...Ehhh. Some of these may have happened, but maybe we really do have scummers sleeping on the job. I could vote an inactive.

Anyone got any good reasons to choose either sig or inh over the other?

Whooo lots of content. I am glad to see people coming around on Quin. I'm voting there.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:18 pm

Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:03 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:06 pm I'm smellin what Epi is cookin (although it could be those delicious-looking cakes I suppose), and I've expressed suspicion before, so:

Quin

This looks very go-along, get-along to me.

I honestly don't understand what this means.

And after I complimented your cakes, too!

I think she means it looks like you are trying to buddy Epi by going along with his case and joining his vote.

wait... Quin... I thought you were voting for sig? But your vote is on INH? I'm confused here... going through your posts you went ahead and voted for Sig right away after the deathless night post, then you said that thinking about it you'd rather lynch INH (which is presumably when you switched your vote?) but then later you post a selective ISO of sig's posts that you didn't like and concluded "I'd lynch him." But your vote is still on INH

sequel to "the search for quin"
we found quin, but he's a goddamn mess

Epi throwing down some major truthbombs

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] if you switch back to Quin he'll be in the lead over sig.

still, hey [mention]Long Con[/mention] you could join us you know. remember last time I asked you to join me? yeah, it was a scum! :P

oh interesting bob switched back. iiiinteresting

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:20 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:17 am does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:28 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:27 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:20 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:17 am does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

care to explain?

I'll try my best to summarize, but I do strongly encourage you to take a look for yourself and develop your own interpretations.

Basically, Bob has a few casual interactions with Quin towards the beginning of the game and names him as a town read a few times. Then on night 3 (before the JJJ lynch but when most everyone thinks he's bad) he says that he sees potential links between JJJ and Quin and supports the notion of JJJ/Quin w/w. But then, he argues against Kyle's argument against Quin, see below
That parenthetical is j.u.i.c.y. Yet he keeps going, claiming that Kyle was misrepresenting stuff Quin said. Meanwhile, Quin is on his short list of suspects (N5), then his first D6 post is the "smellin what Epi is cookin" vote for Quin. He gets some criticism for that, but points to the fact that he has previously named Quin as a suspect. Rest of today, he has some back-and-forth with Quin, suddenly changes his vote to sig saying he "buys Quin as town", and 20 minutes later changes back to Quin.

Yeeeaahh, this can go either way I guess, and I should probably still dig deeper into JJJ-related interactions, but I see a potential bussing arc here.

Hot tamale. The little hills are laughing their little asses off at us right now.

I still think Quin is bad.

RIP epi and welcome niju

Ugh I'm not feeling super confident about anything and would go along with whatever tbh. I'd vote for Sig, I'd vote for Quin, I'd maybe vote for Kyle, heck I'd even vote for Sloonei. LC and DDL I'm less inclined to suspect but I could be wrong.

Man I woke up this morning thinking "hmm..... actually.... Sloonei is totally bad and has been playing us and I'm totally gonna vote for him" but apparently you guys think there's decent hints that cbob cop-checked him. Meh. Idk if I'm totally sold on that, but I'm also kinda tinfoiling hard rn and occam's razor is that Sloonei is town as town can be. Kyle is probably my next likely vote, but I haven't really figured out why I'm leaning that way either. Mostly I just feel way more lost as to who could be bad after the cbob flip than I have been for most of the game and I'm reconsidering some possibilities.

Sloonei, I don't really feel like doing your exercise and I honestly don't see how it's helpful. I don't think it's a helpful way of thinking about players or trying to solve the game. I'll just convince myself that everyone has some reason to be good and I'll never find scum that way. I'm not sure what you're getting out of this exercise but IMO people's answers so far have been total fluff and devoid of constructive gameplay. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe you're figuring out which players show a pattern of weakest/least reason to look civ, but I personally don't view this little game you set up as a particularly town way of solving the game. If anything it feels eerily similar to Jay urging everyone to do the GTHs, and he was bad.

What's your reasoning for looking at why people look town and figuring out which of those are weakest, instead of the other way around, looking at reasons everyone could look bad and seeing which are strongest?

Tbh the more I think about it, unless I'm misremembering something, there's actually no reason at all to clear Sloonei based on the day 2 no-lynch. On the poll, it was 5-5 Jack-Sloonei. In real count, unless Sutter Buttes was in play, it was 6-5 Jack-Sloonei. If SB was hiding Sloonei it would be 6-4, but Jack was already in the lead so it's irrelevant. I think Jack was Aconcagua and survived the lynch (using up his "first attempt on his life" so he was then vulnerable to the night kill). Sloonei's role doesn't enter into it at all if that was the case.

Just looked at Wilgy and there's not very much alignment-indicative either way, which makes me want to lean scum on him. But I do think there is one thing that makes me want to believe he's town and it might be the same thing dunya is thinking.

DDL, read this and explain to me why Sloonei is mechanically cleared

Uuuuuguuughhh I don't know what to dooooooo

Screw it I should just put my money where my mouth has been all game and vote Quin. I keep feeling less sure of myself and wanting to trust other people but it's just making me waffle at ludicrous speed. I'm really afraid of how this lynch is going.

I really don't trust anyone and simultaneously trust everyone. This game is seriously screwing with my brain.

do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:48 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:47 am do you guys really think K2 would never bring up their own name?? come on. of course he would try to blend his own identity into other suspects, and especially since he's only tagged on because he's part of the group of cbob's suspects (plus K2 has mentioned the others before and not wilgy). so yeah, wilgy as K2 is what I was seeing, and I believe probably what dunya was seeing. I didn't want to say it because he asked us specifically not to and because in general I have been trying not to explicitly name roles for people

I have another candidate in mind for K2.

well, I thought I had a different one for a while too, but I feel like I see more evidence for this one. could be wrong though.