The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:00 am

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:59 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:58 am

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:54 am mac, don’t go off his play around me, i was mafia poisoned and wagon d1
he tried to and successfully spewed me town
his play would logically be different this game in compared to around me that game

I'm strictly comparing his early day 1 treatment of you. Which would be the most indicative of his standard.

hard disagree, i was mafia poisoner and a wagon for most of d1

How are you reading him right now? Like obviously you scumread him but are you treating him as lock mafia?

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:59 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:58 am

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:54 am mac, don’t go off his play around me, i was mafia poisoned and wagon d1
he tried to and successfully spewed me town
his play would logically be different this game in compared to around me that game

I'm strictly comparing his early day 1 treatment of you. Which would be the most indicative of his standard.

hard disagree, i was mafia poisoner and a wagon for most of d1

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:58 am

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:54 am mac, don’t go off his play around me, i was mafia poisoned and wagon d1
he tried to and successfully spewed me town
his play would logically be different this game in compared to around me that game

I'm strictly comparing his early day 1 treatment of you. Which would be the most indicative of his standard.

Boquise wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:02 am i was informed in the dvc for spech chat game that wolves are most likely within players that play "suboptimally" tbh. Normally I try to be more nuanced in my reads with them but I have decided to try to push those players and see if my accuracy increases or decreases. Tl;dr you all are my test subjects tbh

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:34 pm i've noticed that most wolves tend to struggle with posting in the early game (kind of like how i picked up on twice being awkward on page 1 of the spec chat invitational that just ended but then brushed it off when he got townier, or how i was able to pick up on hells being fake-solvey right away), and that's bcuz they haven't gotten into the flow of the game yet and are primarily concerned with "blending in" and not attracting any negative attention to themselves

i think it's uniquely easy to catch wolves in the first few pages of the game because of this, and lily's posts came the closest of meeting the archetype of somebody who was focused primarily with "blending in" and trying to seem natural. it's not really about whether she does it every game - it's about the timing, the flow, etc etc

i understand that this type of read has a high margin of error though

also i agree with this take about early game posts tbh
sadly i misread variance for it, but it did make me start town reading him eventually tbh

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:24 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?

We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.

Maybe you just don't actually realise how bad this is but not killing the counterwagon on day 2 is the number 1 thing that leads to town losing mountainous games. Nothing else comes close.

Perhaps. I just hate giving wolves a free day pass because we have to resolve wagons when TvT wagons are quite common.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:12 am Like we're probably either in a universe where:

Alison is mafia with whoever the fuck
or
Neon/Lily are mafia and their whole agenda in this game is just pocket and try to coast

I feel like almost everybody with the exception of Creature and SPF are relatively suspicious of Alison at this point? (If you aren't then vocalise it).

I feel like almost nobody EXCEPT Creature/Alison/SPF is suspicious of Neon or Lily?

@RondoDimBuckle can you come play or something.

@lucy what's your gamestate?

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:50 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:48 pm idk what lucy is talking abt lmao the wagons weren't tied because of me

This is true. Technically my vote tied them

There's a but in here though

But my vote only tied them because Nook switched.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:47 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:39 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:32 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:30 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:27 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:25 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm @MacDougall - can you give me a rough estimate of how confident you are that nanook is town? i find it difficult to get alignment indicative information out of pretty much anything he has posted so far and most of his posts have gone straight through me, which is somewhat unusual because im usually able to figure out when he's town pretty quickly. are you confident there?

I have a gut read on scum nook btw

what other reads do u have rn?

I was expecting you to die and for Mac to unsuccessfully push Alison
since this is not happening my gamestate is off
I know a few things that I have to think more about
Lily should still be in POE @Creature I don't see how she doesn't listen to me in that scenario, and if I'm wrong she just blames me

i mean, what incentive does lily have to NOT listen to you in a world where she's a wolf and you're town? if she's mafia then she has the perfect excuse to park her vote on falcon and not look responsible for him dying, since you directly told her to. why would she bother making a last second vanity vote? what does she gain from doing that?

it was unstrategic in a way that probably means she's playing from an uninformed perspective, and i actually think lily is becoming one of my most confident townreads in general

would've tied the Lynch, lily would've been policy lynched but that's okay because she's been suspected and we'd be forced to spend 3 lynches going lily/falcon/Alison where there's 1 wolf for 4 NK's
I hard disagree with a lily TR, she'd sheep me in every town scenario unless she had someone else telling her what to do (saying falcon was obv town at EOD imo was tmo (lily's actual messages contradict this but I don't care))
I do think lily/Alison have a difference check if and only if Alison flips scum
but more to the point I believe that town lily always follows me there

but lily choosing to park on a vanity wagon didn't tie the chop, right? or if it did tie the chop, it was mitigated so quickly that there was no realistic possibility that lily thought that switching off was going to force a tie between the wagon wagons

i don't really agree that lily would always follow you if she was town bcuz i have no idea what your dynamic is like and i care more about whether lily's play had strategic intent, which as far as i can tell, it did not

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:56 pm @Lilypetal do not change votes

Neon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:40 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:25 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm @MacDougall - can you give me a rough estimate of how confident you are that nanook is town? i find it difficult to get alignment indicative information out of pretty much anything he has posted so far and most of his posts have gone straight through me, which is somewhat unusual because im usually able to figure out when he's town pretty quickly. are you confident there?

I have a gut read on scum nook btw

Hmm...I was thinking this after EoD but nobody seemed to be SRing him so I dropped it

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:32 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:30 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:27 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:25 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm @MacDougall - can you give me a rough estimate of how confident you are that nanook is town? i find it difficult to get alignment indicative information out of pretty much anything he has posted so far and most of his posts have gone straight through me, which is somewhat unusual because im usually able to figure out when he's town pretty quickly. are you confident there?

I have a gut read on scum nook btw

what other reads do u have rn?

I was expecting you to die and for Mac to unsuccessfully push Alison
since this is not happening my gamestate is off
I know a few things that I have to think more about
Lily should still be in POE @Creature I don't see how she doesn't listen to me in that scenario, and if I'm wrong she just blames me

i mean, what incentive does lily have to NOT listen to you in a world where she's a wolf and you're town? if she's mafia then she has the perfect excuse to park her vote on falcon and not look responsible for him dying, since you directly told her to. why would she bother making a last second vanity vote? what does she gain from doing that?

it was unstrategic in a way that probably means she's playing from an uninformed perspective, and i actually think lily is becoming one of my most confident townreads in general

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:27 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:25 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm @MacDougall - can you give me a rough estimate of how confident you are that nanook is town? i find it difficult to get alignment indicative information out of pretty much anything he has posted so far and most of his posts have gone straight through me, which is somewhat unusual because im usually able to figure out when he's town pretty quickly. are you confident there?

I have a gut read on scum nook btw

what other reads do u have rn?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm @MacDougall - can you give me a rough estimate of how confident you are that nanook is town? i find it difficult to get alignment indicative information out of pretty much anything he has posted so far and most of his posts have gone straight through me, which is somewhat unusual because im usually able to figure out when he's town pretty quickly. are you confident there?

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:16 pm yeah i moved off falcon and onto porscha with boq just so i wouldn't be a part of it lmao

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:58 pm It's all rather moot isn't it because of one of these two flips town the other is dying day 2. Right?

This is my actual legacy. Do not ever let this not occur. Ever. If I am in DVC and see this occur I will blacklist every town in the game.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:56 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:56 pm Legit, I was about to unvote Alison and then she returned and took a big ole dump all over half the game and then a bunch of players are like “save Alison because she’s such a strong and obvious townie” and it makes me wanna throw something.

Oh I'm gonna be throwing shit for real

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:56 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:55 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:53 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:52 pm why tf does Alison have 6 votes

people are scared of strong players i guess

I still hate everything about this narrative even though Mac made a good point...

nah it's obvious that alison is only being voted because people are scared of the fact that she's a strong player and not because there is any compelling reason for her to be mafia

even in a world where alison is mafia and i am embarrassing myself by incorrectly defending her the pushes on her are still awful

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:56 pm Legit, I was about to unvote Alison and then she returned and took a big ole dump all over half the game and then a bunch of players are like “save Alison because she’s such a strong and obvious townie” and it makes me wanna throw something.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:53 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:52 pm why tf does Alison have 6 votes

The workers have attempted to seize power

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:50 pm I'll prob stay around to vote the counterwagon to Alison. I'm just not feeling her today.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:46 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:44 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:43 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:42 pm [VOTE: Porscha] aubergine again

Alison has a dangerous amount of votes
no hammers, vote now @staypositivefriend

well i didnt want to play my hand this early but i actually think falcon always needs to die today

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

explain quickly

all of the other viable counterwagons have either been towntelling mildly or are bad d1 eliminations, falcon has not towntold in any meaningful way, his reaction to mac pushing on him felt like howling to me, etc etc

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:43 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:42 pm [VOTE: Porscha] aubergine again

Alison has a dangerous amount of votes
no hammers, vote now @staypositivefriend

well i didnt want to play my hand this early but i actually think falcon always needs to die today

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:33 pm If I am right that there is no way it is w/w between alison / mac based on their bullshit earlier. And I'm giving mac town resd right now. Then for there to be at least one strong player in wolves, alison makes plenty of sense. I think she is manufacturing her posts to make me look far worse than I have because she was threatened by the worldview I put out and my read on her when nobody else is SR'ing her

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:29 pm

lucy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:28 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:25 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:21 pm I have skimmed the past few pages. Not gonna reply to every post, there's 40 minutes left in the day and I'd rather talk with people who are here. The wagon on me is horrible and most people have given literally no reason for voting me. Ergo Porscha is being saved again and their accomplices are in my voters. Ergo we should just vote out Porscha because every time they are under threat the worst wagon in the universe materializes on a strong player that it would be disastrous to execute D1.

@MacDougall Do you think mafia falcon has the balls to push me and you on D1 knowing we can easily find and bury him if he does?

Yes. As mafia he is not a pussy he is just obvious. He's gone straight at me as a wolf many times. That said I'm heavily conflicted on him right now because he does seem to believe what he's saying to some degree and having bad reads isn't something to particularly scumread Falcon for.

I'm no longer really thinking he's optimal anyway. Not with Rondo the supersub shifting his vote around silently and skating. I don't really see how it makes sense not to just kill Rondo here.

And Seanzie's play today has been a total shit show also.

As I started above these two and Jack are just like... I can't really figure a way to perceive them as town?

I agree with you on Rondo and I think him + Porscha + Jack are way better exes than Falcon.

I kinda see your point on some of Falcon's posting being thrown together but I really think Porscha is just outed and Rondo is actively trolling so.

rondo is trolling by being inactive?

He voted a bunch of different people but didn't say a word. He was voting me earlier, then Mac said he was shifting his vote around silently, and I looked up and he was voting Mac.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:28 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:25 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:21 pm I have skimmed the past few pages. Not gonna reply to every post, there's 40 minutes left in the day and I'd rather talk with people who are here. The wagon on me is horrible and most people have given literally no reason for voting me. Ergo Porscha is being saved again and their accomplices are in my voters. Ergo we should just vote out Porscha because every time they are under threat the worst wagon in the universe materializes on a strong player that it would be disastrous to execute D1.

@MacDougall Do you think mafia falcon has the balls to push me and you on D1 knowing we can easily find and bury him if he does?

Yes. As mafia he is not a pussy he is just obvious. He's gone straight at me as a wolf many times. That said I'm heavily conflicted on him right now because he does seem to believe what he's saying to some degree and having bad reads isn't something to particularly scumread Falcon for.

I'm no longer really thinking he's optimal anyway. Not with Rondo the supersub shifting his vote around silently and skating. I don't really see how it makes sense not to just kill Rondo here.

And Seanzie's play today has been a total shit show also.

As I started above these two and Jack are just like... I can't really figure a way to perceive them as town?

I agree with you on Rondo and I think him + Porscha + Jack are way better exes than Falcon.

I kinda see your point on some of Falcon's posting being thrown together but I really think Porscha is just outed and Rondo is actively trolling so.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:24 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:21 pm I have skimmed the past few pages. Not gonna reply to every post, there's 40 minutes left in the day and I'd rather talk with people who are here. The wagon on me is horrible and most people have given literally no reason for voting me. Ergo Porscha is being saved again and their accomplices are in my voters. Ergo we should just vote out Porscha because every time they are under threat the worst wagon in the universe materializes on a strong player that it would be disastrous to execute D1.

@MacDougall Do you think mafia falcon has the balls to push me and you on D1 knowing we can easily find and bury him if he does?

Cant wait for you to be full of shit alison I hope you get policied after my flip because this is awful reasoning that just sounds good in theory to the babies who look up to you more than they need to because they wont think for themselves

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:09 pm I'm slowly coming to think Alison can indeed be wolf judginf the number of players who seem to be sensing something wrong from her + she doesn't seem to oppose it at all.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:05 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:23 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:59 pm anyway jackofhearts2005, seanzie, falcon45ca is almost guaranteed to contain a wolf because i refuse to believe that the wagon against boq is town driven, and it's probably jack because i think seanzie was very towny in the first half of the day even if he has dropped off in the latter half, and im sheeping alison/mac/whoever that falcon is playing closer to his town meta than his wolf meta

Seanzie was towny? Why?

he had a really towny stint of posting on like ....page 6-7 where he seemed overly paranoid/accusatory toward everyone who was posting and making a point of trying to rile ppl up to get reactions, and i bought it as a distinctly towny perspective that most wolves would find difficult to project. he has significantly fallen off since that point and i actually hate him voting for alison and then dipping again, so it's possible i am clearing him too easily