The Syndicate

Hello at long last! Sorry for my absence in the first 36 hours, I've been visiting my Dad whom I seldom see this weekend. My schedule is much freer from tomorrow.

By way of an introduction, I should say that I haven't played mafia in at least 8 years. I finally caved to one of Mac's invitations. The only players from that time that I have played with include Strawhenge, ColinIsCool, and I think possibly TheFloyd73. Not sure how useful this is as retrieving decade old memories of mafia meta is not likely to be too reliable.

Otherwise I'm approaching you all with a clean slate, which suits me. I have caught up on the thread and will post some thoughts on things that stuck out throughout the day (it's pissing it down in London so I should have a few posting windows).

Two other points to note. I'm playing on mobile for the rest of this day phase which is cumbersome and will inhibit me from providing the detail I'd like to.

Secondly, as to my assigned song - I may become quite erratic if you neglect to remember my name.

I would also like to say upfront that I will be taking meta-based reads with a pinch of salt given that you're virtually all strangers to me. I'm not saying I will disregard that context, but it won't move the needle significantly for me.

The Colin stuff can go either way. I've never encountered a town-friendly third-party role to my knowledge, but that's not to exclude the possibility of it existing. I'm struggling to envisage a scenario where anybody would volunteer their role to Colin regardless of their public claim, so it seems an odd wincon to say the least. But the same logic applies if they're anti-town.

The player I was feeling best about in the first 24 hours was Strawhenge, so seeing them subbed out is not optimal.

@Manny you said you disagreed with Strawhenge's reads. Which in particular did you disagree with and why?

IBA wrote: ↑Sat Oct 29, 2022 4:41 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Oct 29, 2022 4:40 pm

IBA wrote: ↑Sat Oct 29, 2022 4:38 pm This is entirely too many posts for this thread to have at this point

How many were you expecting?

idk a couple hundred? Nothing has happened and it hasn't even been 24 hours, there's no reason for the average post per player to be in the double digits at this point

This struck me as an almost comically anti-town sentiment.

The most suspicious thing I've seen from Creature is definitely alluding to the nature of their role under minimal pressure.

Having read the rest of IBA'S posts they read more town than wolf. I think we just have opposing views on the utility of having a large volume of content to digest.

Re: Creature. What is a self-resolve ability/role?

Also how do you view a single user's posts on mobile?

#Drunkgate feels like a fruitless line of inquiry. Sabi looks good for trying to shut it down in general.

I have a clutch of players I feel good-ish about but nobody is pinging my scumdar exactly. Seems like a lot of the votes are quite omgussy.

Is there a tally of the votes as things stand? I'm about to watch a movie with the old man and I don't want to leave me vote until too late ideally.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:27 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:26 pm Is there a tally of the votes as things stand? I'm about to watch a movie with the old man and I don't want to leave me vote until too late ideally.

Look at the poll above

It was blank but I stopped being dense and selected the spectator option.

I'm most inclined to vote for Creature, but if there's a feeling that they should verify their role function in the next day phase that would seem to be a waste.

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:52 pm

Valentine wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 2:49 pm wanted to GIVE MY VOTE A LITTLE BIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENED AND IF PEOPLE WOULD TRAIL ON
being proactive is a curse this is why i never try

anyways whatever i said about creature is out the window because everyone's like "oh but what if creature" but where's the drive to manifest it. he's not like doing anything.

damn this posts actually howls hard as fuck, you should've posted this before tr'd you smh.

Tend to agree, which isn't emboldening me to vote Creature.

Re: Creature roleclaim. What kind of roles would be useful to town that could be proved at the start of a day phase? I haven't played much role madness.

I have town reads on 2-3 people on this Guillo wagon, but I'm not sure what the main basis for it. Is it just meta?

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:04 pm

LordQuas wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:03 pm

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:58 pm

DeeZees wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:50 pm

LordQuas wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:49 pm

DeeZees wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:48 pm

LordQuas wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:45 pm

vig, cop, a weird ic, some sort of booster / gift giver (arms dealer?)

neighbouriser too

neighbouriser doesn't clear shit

yh but its "outting" d2.

I was thinking thats what he meant. why I left out things like angel etc.

Because ultimately, IC is the only reaaaaally self verifiable role (unless he outs or shoots a mafia)

This is true
Also why tf are you guys feeding potential fake claims to Creature if he's scum
Like, most of you have said he's scum so idk why we're having this discussion

Just popping in to skim while the band takes a break, and wanted to say this

oh no whatever shall we do. Without my post creature would never have thought to claim cop as scum, this revolutionary technique has stumped us

tr

Creature and Valentine

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:04 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:02 pm I have town reads on 2-3 people on this Guillo wagon, but I'm not sure what the main basis for it. Is it just meta?

I dont think i've seen you say who you sr yourself so far so any shots you wanna take at guessing that?.

Creature and Valentine

I responded to the wrong post up there and don't know how to edit but you get me.

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:07 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:06 pm Creature and Valentine

Reasoning on Valentine?

I didn't like their post in which they voted for the former. The same one you found sus. I don't rule out that they could've been trying to bus either, as they seemed to invite that suggestion

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:13 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:11 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:07 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:06 pm Creature and Valentine

Reasoning on Valentine?

I didn't like their post in which they voted for the former. The same one you found sus. I don't rule out that they could've been trying to bus either, as they seemed to invite that suggestion

Are you suspecting me for "tExTbOoK wOlFpLaY"? Because that's so 2018.

I was quite persuaded by parts of Strawhenge's ISO of you earlier. And I didn't like you coughing up a roleclaim under little pressure.

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:18 pm Mfw my past self convinced someone to sr one of my towniecore fml.

I did ask you a while back which of your predecessor's reads you didn't share and why. Why is Creature towniecore for you?

DeeZees wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:21 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:20 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:17 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:13 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:11 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:07 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:06 pm Creature and Valentine

Reasoning on Valentine?

I didn't like their post in which they voted for the former. The same one you found sus. I don't rule out that they could've been trying to bus either, as they seemed to invite that suggestion

Are you suspecting me for "tExTbOoK wOlFpLaY"? Because that's so 2018.

I was quite persuaded by parts of Strawhenge's ISO of you earlier. And I didn't like you coughing up a roleclaim under little pressure.

It's incredibly infuriating to have a stagnant unmoving wagon on myself and it almost completely inhibits my motivation to play because I need moving wagons preferably on non-me to read the gamestate and the players.

2 ppl are voting you in a 23 person game, and one of them isn't here (I am)

Yeah I don't get the defensiveness. I haven't even voted.

I need to charge my phone ffs.

Valentine wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:39 pm Yes... yes... sustain my wagon

Sexual post.

How definitive is the meta case against Guillo? (As obviously I can't comment on that)

I have to vote based on my own reads ultimately and not meta that I'm not privy to.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine. For persistent and mostly unjustified (or at least oddly exaggerated) defensiveness primarily.

I will likely pop back before the deadline but could only really consider switching to Valentine unless there are any major developments.

Valentine wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:21 pm (keep voting me but don't actually vote me out)

Are there roles that reward players for getting a certain number of votes?

IBA wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:27 pm I don't think I've ever seen "let's let this claimed neutral live" work out for town tbqh

People should be voting for Valentine

What was the neutral claim bit?

That's pretty funny, ngl. RIP

Okay just got caught up on the madness, role and otherwise. Gonna go back and and answer IAWY's posts first as they took the time to ISO me and I respect that.

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:35 pm Specifically, I don't like the fact that Mung was very focused on targeting Creature, especially when Creature was up against Guillo. Defending Guillo while also townreading people voting on Guillo is a weird look if not scummy, and I don't like how Mung randomly threw out a scumread on Val was stated to be because Muing didn't like how Val voted for Creature. When you're scumreading a player, scumreading another player out of the blue for also scumreading them is just weird

There's just a whole bunch of weird and I don't know if it's fully scummy but something feels very off and I don't like it

Finally posting using a keyboard so I can, like, number points and format posts properly.

1) I don't know if "very focused on targeting Creature" is an accurate description of my participation on Day 1/EoD. I can't say I had any strong scum-reads, but Creature was one of the few players who stood out to me. I explained why and, as far as I/we know, the Artist Formerly Known As Creature may very well have been wolf.

2) It's misleading to describe my actions as "defending Guillo". I don't think I posted anything in defence of Guillo. What I did do is ask what the case against them was and all I got back was "meta". I think I stated at the very beginning that I would be playing this game as a clean slate and not basing decisions off meta knowledge I don't possess. I reiterated this logic in my eventual vote and I stand by it.

3) I didn't randomly throw out a scumread on Valentine. I found the nature of their vote for Creature to be suspicious, and I wasn't alone in that. The fact that I had an undeveloped scum-read on Creature at that time did not negate what I perceived to be suspicious behaviour in isolation. Val's subsequent roleclaim made me believe there may have been a reason they were behaving in a somewhat scummy way and so I stuck to my original vote.

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:30 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:18 pm I have to vote based on my own reads ultimately and not meta that I'm not privy to.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine. For persistent and mostly unjustified (or at least oddly exaggerated) defensiveness primarily.

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:20 pm I will likely pop back before the deadline but could only really consider switching to Valentine unless there are any major developments.

don't like this considering this was well after Guillo's wagon was gaining consistent traction

I stand by my previously stated logic w/r/t not voting based on meta I'm not privy to. I did ask people to elaborate on the case against Guillo but when all I'm hearing back is "meta" I'm not going to just switch my vote accordingly. Why play the game at all if you can't pursue your own reads?

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:21 pm

Mungbean wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:02 pm I have town reads on 2-3 people on this Guillo wagon, but I'm not sure what the main basis for it. Is it just meta?

@Mungbean Who were the 2-3 people on Guillo's wagon that you were townreading?

As I recall, Sabi and Manny were either on that wagon already or saying they were leaning that way. They were townreads for me at that time. The other one was Chelsea, because they came out with the strong meta read which was shared by others. That coming so late in the day was somewhat suspicious to me though so that's why I would've said 2-3.

I think there's almost certainly at least 1 wolf on that Guillo wagon, but the decision to bus the Godfather can't have been taken lightly so I'm looking more at people who hopped on the wagon late.

Working on the premise that a wolf likely hopped on the end of the Guillo wagon, these votes merit inspection:

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:11 pm @hollowkatt Sorry pal, I had doubts for a hot minute. RIP. GOAT.

Meanwhile,

[VOTE: Guillotine] aubergine

Valentine wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:13 pm [VOTE: guillotine] aubergine

weeeee

Creature also voted for Guillo after it became clear that they were virtually beyond saving, but as we don't know what happened to that role it's not much use to speculate on that.

I'm going to ISO Le petit as I barely remember any of their posts.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 5:51 pm [VOTE: hollowkatt] aubergine

I don't like the timing of this unexplained vote. Things could very well have switched up in the directed of hollowkatt around this time, and dropping an unexplained vote here isn't a good look.

Le petit poussin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:57 pm

Manny wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:51 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 6:50 pm I don't trust le petit raskol at all hm.

I kinda dont like him cuz he was on valentine wagon then nonchalantly swapped when the wagon died off. If Guillo flips scum ill just feel like he just bussed him for cred.

I just saw the wagon growth, like Nut and Sabi, and tryed a bait vote on HK to see what I could get out of it. Then HK posted some bad posts in reply to nut (didn't like the "how about no") and then he died. I liked Valentine's replies to my inquiries so didn't feel to start yet another wagon. Just sheep on Guillo.

TBH good job as a wolf to be so visible if some wolf pal is about to die lol.

Also not particularly sold on this explanation. Maybe it was a "bait vote" but if so it was a very late-game attempt. The last line with the "lol" is totally something I could see a wolf saying when they realise their late-game actions look wolfy.

I've talked myself into a scum-read on Le petit so I'm going to lay down my marker there for the time being while I explore alternatives.

[VOTE: Le petit poussin] aubergine

W/R/T the whole search for Creature's abductor conundrum:

How do we know they didn't die in the last two night phases? Is it confirmed that they're still alive somehow?

Gonna ISO Valentine now as the second of those potential Guillo bussers. I need to to get my head around their roleclaim.

So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 amAlso poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

Is this the case (that we can't vote for them)?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:08 am

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:07 am So the case against Valentine from my perspective boils down to:

1) Late vote for Guillo when they were all-but-confirmed as the lynch candidate for that day.

2) A role-claim of vote-canceller. Clearly this is not AI, but it's definitely an ability that a wolf team could possess.

3) A bunch of posts just saying players are town. Granted, I haven't played mafia in years but this was always a scum-tell of my own back in the day. Scattershot town-reads are easier than, y'know, any kind of scumhunting.

Does #2 change at all if there's more than one vote cancelling role in the game?

The existence of two vote-cancelling roles would just lead me to believe that one is definitely wolf. I can't see why there'd be two for town. So no it doesn't really change anything as the odds of Valentine's role being wolfy would remain at 50%.

Regarding ColinIsCool:

I think their role is likely to be legit. If the game started with three 3P players then I think it's fair to assume that at least one of those was non-fatal/not anti-town. They claimed their role early. It doesn't seem an unreasonable claim (even though I maintain that the wincon seems hard to obtain). Crucially, they were also to prove their role function by neighbouring with Chelsea.

I'm more suspicious of those getting pitchforks out for Colin because he makes for an easy lynch target at this stage of the game. No need to scumhunt, just push a lynch of the 3P.

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:11 pm

DeeZees wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:10 pm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:09 pm My role literally is wolf sided, and the only way town wins is to completely holster tbh

Just claim imo

Whoever posts the fewest posts everyday is killed by me

Back to the elephant in the room. We have to make a decision on whether we buy this being a town role in this setup. I don't see it as a wolf role as that would be OP. That would leave it as a 3P role, which is entirely possible. That would mean there was one non-fatal and not anti-town 3P (Colin), one fatal but single-shot 3P (whoever snatched Creature's role) and Daughter.

What gives me pause is the fact that Daughter roleclaimed. If I had this role as 3P I wouldn't claim my role. On that basis I'm leaning towards it being a town role, though one that is hardly helping the cause (especially now that scum are alerted it's existence).

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:21 am

Mungbean wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:12 am

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 6:49 amAlso poussin is commuted out so I just assumed I can't vote there, but I think he's actual scum, on the scumteam.

Is this the case (that we can't vote for them)?

Idk, some of us are assuming so. I don't want to waste my vote on an unvotable target so that's pretty much the only reason I'm not voting there.

@Marmot @MacDougall Are we able to vote for @Le petit poussin in this day phase?

Tbf, even if we are I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel voting for someone who can't defend themselves. :/

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:44 pm Colin can die. Outted 3p dies for parity sake

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:48 pm Just kill Colin, a confirmed non town player

This was the kind of lazy 3P pitchfork-wielding I was looking for. I don't think it's a good look.