The Syndicate

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:43 pm just a random thought but it occurred to me that i think the odds of tutuu being mafia are particularly higher than rondo or seanzie being mafia even though i have them lower in my list of townreads

lucy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:47 pm there’s probably one in sig/tutuu
and i have no idea which

Agree to both.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:42 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:52 pm This game confuses me currently but I haven't been able to articulate why.
can you try to? it would be helpful to hear right now

It boils down to, I do not think the interactions I've observed line up with how I or even others understand the game.
I'm trying to collect what I'm seeing but its taking forever.

Whats your opinion on Roxy/Creature being partnered?

Hmmm? Jack shaded Rondo; Seanzie shaded Dennis
I was looking for all such instances of shade of Dennis/Rondo and deciding how much I liked any of it.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:30 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:10 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:30 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:24 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:58 am
I also wanna yeet Rondo but it’s not the ideal play today. I’m just saying. Rondo bad.
Hahaha, got more than caveman speak on why I am bad?
I almost always feel you are town when we play together. You aren’t shining, here.
Also Seanzie did that Twist thing earlier where they expressed Roxy's exact concern about Dennis and then voted Kate.
Are you…confusing Rondo and Seanzie?

When I’m talking to Rondo about Rondo, you chime in about 3 other players and idk what that has to do with the post you quoted lol.

No I'm not.

But "bad look"/"odd". This is so weird.

Roxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:24 pm @sig I did come back, you not reading beige giving thoughts is a bad look for you.

Lucy saying I was frozen is odd considering we had exchanges when I did come back and vote

I don't understand Roxy's incentive to say this as a wolf.

This post gets made because Roxy is tilted at any claims that they left.
I'll go and peruse this section to check.

Roxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:42 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:35 am
Roxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:32 am Ps this is my only appearance this day. I voted Dennis

Bc I won't be back or respond to anyone.
If you wont highlight how its obvious on Dennis I wont vote him or rally on your behalf
Fu Rondo for making me want to help you

Every game, 2 so far, he finds his own suspicions he did it in his own fashion, this game feels like he is being led in the thread by whatever bad town play is in action. No questions just doing what he told. He did not do this before in either game. It feels like a mafia member told him here's how to be bad. And it's obv bc It does not fit with his play from the other games.

Ps this ploy will no longer work and will self destruct when I hit submit.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:13 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:08 pm Dennis said they think you're likely town in their readlist.
yeah but not as town as the other oracle so I see that as a sus

Oh come on. You know nobody else believes in this logic except you.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:30 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:24 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:58 am
I also wanna yeet Rondo but it’s not the ideal play today. I’m just saying. Rondo bad.
Hahaha, got more than caveman speak on why I am bad?
I almost always feel you are town when we play together. You aren’t shining, here.

Also Seanzie did that Twist thing earlier where they expressed Roxy's exact concern about Dennis and then voted Kate.

Dennis said they think you're likely town in their readlist.

Bereft wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:54 pm I'm baffled the recent spate of shade on Dennis/Rondo but I couldn't keep track of the people doing this.

That is to say I think the people doing this are >randwolf and I want a list on them so I can go bash them.

I'm baffled the recent spate of shade on Dennis/Rondo but I couldn't keep track of the people doing this.

Wait roxy literally defends their partners as wolf, why would Creature be Roxy's partner.

Roxy was never not going over today unless something earthshattering happened.

It is abundantly clear that wolves haven't cared all day.

lucy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:02 pm veto the creature wagon today

Have you totally given up on tryharding? It's disappointing. Even if you're not going to explain alot, at least have the presence have to be able to direct things.

I'm throwing out my previous "solve".

This game confuses me currently but I haven't been able to articulate why.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:29 pm @everyone

Talk to me about my closer to null players. Who has a strong opinion on Sabi/Porscha/Wilgy/Seanzie/Sig/Rondo? Who should I be smart enough to townread and take out of this pile?

Should I assume I was dropped upwards from the pile?

Why is sig selfvoting?

Spxce.

you fall in the latter category as well.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:47 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:05 pm Also, @Bereft can you tldr your mafia experience level, and tell me who you know here and how familiar you are with people?
@Bereft this would help me a lot.

With?

I obviously would rather not share who my identity is. But I've played with lucy/Mac/Porscha/SPF, one of whom knows my identity, the others of whom will probably start guessing after this and probably figure out, and I've also played with some others here but not to any extent that I'm going to pretend to a know meta well enough.

Lucy express a proper read on Bereft challenge.

Rondo, the reason you're towny is exactly for your first callout. "You can't just effortlessly townread me! Scummy" Town exhibit a selfobsession and this tracks with at least my observations of your reactions at a least a few other points in your iso, and no I'm not going to find them and point them out to you because I just made a wallpost.

I've been repping a Wilgy scumread since midD1 so all of that concern about my treatment of Wilgy is based on wrong facts, and if you think I as scum would have such a sloppy progression on Roxy that I know someone's probably going to point out, [complete the rest].

But sure.

This also segues to the thought I had earlier, that I actually like the players who bother to express suspicion on me (Porscha/Seanzie/Rondo), I do feel that wolves have been hesitant to do touch me and have literally just been TMI'ing town (yes this ties in to my earlier point about why Rondo is town)

I don't know why I'm spilling so much ink but I guess I decided I felt like talking alot..

@Seanzie

B. If you hadn't noticed I have Creature as solid town, falcon as lean town, and Porscha as town, and Mac/SPF may have some deviations here but none of us are put bulldozing these players.
C. Actually I simply think town got off to a horrible start D1. I say this from the simple fact of the Baudib's wagon existence. I know you don't agree that Baudib was obvious town but as far as I'm concerned there was at minimum some number of town pursuing things that I would label inadvisable and there were definitely tensions that grew from the fact that Alison/Mac/Lucy/Baudib were telling people to "shut up and stop doing stupid things because we said so", and so these people never got around the fact that they think Mac's controlling the game in an evil direction simply from the fact he told them to stop wagoning their pet scumreads. That's a very nice story and all, but my point is that I don't actually current think you need that much control over the game to get a successful Moon use to cause an Alison chop. The recipe was right there, in D1, no one trusted Alison, and you want to know who pushed Alison and added to the boiling pot? Spoiler alert, its some of the people I'm suspecting.

The obvious counterargument is "but what about Mac's D2, he told everyone to vote for Alison for however long" to which I will simply state that I understand the concern but actually here's how to read Mac, so we segue into:

A. The first point about reading Mac, is that you can get a good idea just entirely based on Mac's stated reads, not their accuracy, but his stated explanations and read development. Mac's great at spinning BS and bussing, but the point is that he's not great at faking reasonable reads or for that matter reevaluating. I'm not going to bother explaining why I think Mac's D1 reads are reasonable since you obviously don't think they are and I will only come off as even more a snob. However, Mac's ... breakdown D2 is as far as I'm concerned a v!Mac. Do you think w!Mac bothers faking vulnerability? Not well, not in any way thats grounded. He stated clearly why he suddenly pivoted onto Alison, and thats because of a breakdown in confidence of worldview. Why was there a breadown in confidence of worldview? Because certain of his scumreads were showing town entitlement, these were Falcon and (Dr.Wilgy? I cant remember and I might be biased) and he had never expressed townreading Alison that confidently. Then he switches to actually I change my mind, I haven't a clue, and actually don't kill Alison. This is a massive amount of flexibility and whether you like it or not, its not easy to pull of convincingly as wolf, nor does it give him any benefit of wolf when everyone will be going "bro wtf was that". I am not going to talk about Mac's D3 and attempt to justify that its genuine frustration on Mac's part, but that is what I think.

In any case, it is much easier for me to say "oh I townread Mac", because I can follow basically all of his stated thought processes while others have not.

X. I strongly believe in my own ability to read Mac to speculate on the w/w nature of the interactions you cited. Besides the fact that I think most preflip claimed w/w interactions are in general weak, I do think SPF could have come to a similar assessment as I have, and this is just based on SPF being a stronger player and they've already echoed my general thrust that the reason Mac is town is that "actually Mac is polarized". And lastly, the point where Mac doubles around and asks SPF "so why don't you scumread me" is emblematic of Mac's townplay in that he will ask pointed questions out of the blue to the people he townreads for paranoia reasons. Theoretically SPF can be a wolf in all of this but these are not interactions w/w with Mac. Mac as a wolf would've likely theatred more with SPF as a partner, this interaction is pretty tame.

Why did I do this to myself.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:34 pm I think there is something very important going on between Mac and SPF.

tl;dr: SPF townreads Mac starting on Page 4, never gives a reason, not a single time, and it never wavers in the least. There are many w/w interactions between them. Mac looks like Mac wants to distance, but SPF is not doing a good job of showing critical thought on Mac. There is a small chance this is SPF/Mac w/t, but I think w/w powerwolfing is more likely here.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So SPF has given me the heebee jeebees a few times, and Mac I think is playing like scum!Mac. SPF's most recent post where SPF said I was town for my case on Mac, and Mac questioned SPF's read on Mac, and SPF just said "I townread you" got my curious. I ISO'd SPF and ctrl+f'd the word "Mac". Here are the relevant posts I found, with my interpretations:

Spoiler: show
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:14 am im not bored anymore though. i think bereft is town. i think porscha is town. i think mac is town. i think sig might be town. still figuring it out from there
This is 4 pages in, SPF townreads Mac without having mentioned them before. No reason given. Nothing particularly sus about this at this time, but we'll see.

Also kinda curious about the Bereft read. They didn't even register on my radar that early, will have to ISO their early game to see if I can actually make sense of a new player being townread that quickly.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:52 pm here's where i'm at rn. it's a bit more hedgy than i'd like but meh

if kate is mafia then alison is probably town because i dont think that the way kate reacted to alison’s push on her felt like W/W interaction. the same applies for roxy as well but i currently perceive kate as having a slightly higher chance of being mafia than roxy. as for alison herself, i dunno. i understand that some of her arguments are easy to perceive in bad faith (like the way she poked at roxy earlier in a way where it did kind of feel like she was trying to ~dunk~ on her more than anything), but i’ve also played enough with alison to know that this style of engagement isn’t alignment indicative

so in the absence of reasons to scumread alison, and because i think alison is unaligned with 2 other ppl who are kinda in my POE, i’m at the very least not willing to vote for alison today

i like that baub felt like he had kind of positioned himself to be able to push on seanzie but then ended up backing off of him anyway. i also think his push on jack has felt like it came fro ma place of conviction. i don’t know how to read baub at all but i think he’s fine s ofar

i thought the way that bereft pushed on me while revealing that he was secretly repping a townread on me while doing so was towny. i thought the way it felt like he was projecting his view of the game (ie: “i dont find the game boring but spf finds the game boring so t herefore spf be mafia) was towny too. i townlean him

i think that creature replied decently to my concerns about him, but i do still find it difficult to shake the feeling that he is being rather careless with the way he is posting reads and acting overly confident and haughty in a way that is uncharacteristic from pretty much every game ive seen for him

i think it bothers me for a few reasons:

-his focus is all off. creature has obsessed over reading mac and me correctly in every game iver played with him but here he is pushing more on the LHF and not really engaging with either of us much at all

-he just made a post that said: “This wagon is so bad we could prob nuke everyone in it” , and this is the exact type of attitude i struggle to believe that creature would have as town

honestly i m having trouble letting go of this read on creature because he keeps making posts that ping me even though i acknowledge i could be relying on meta too strongly or confirmation biasingm yself, but yeah

tbh i kind of like the fact that dennis went out of his way to limit himself for potential options to push (by saying he isnt willing to vote any of kate/neon/lucy/falcon very early into the game) but i’m kind of ambivalent about his posts beyond that

the readslist that wilgy posted on viewtopic.php?p=1002310#p1002310 didn’t really feel proportional to the solving he had done up to that point. i don’t really get anything alignment indicative out of the rest of the stuff he’s posted

i have no idea how to read falcon and im not going to pretend that i can

i think the way that fingersplints followed up my question about the alison/roxy dynamic was towny. i need to see her post more before i make up my mind on her alignment tho

i thought the way that jack dug in his heels and stubbornly continued to hard tunnel alison even after i questioned him/tried to talk him down felt like it came more from the perspective of a villager who felt convicted over their scumread and less from a wolf, since i think wolves are more likely to capitulate to pressure when they are being questioned on their reads like that, or at least say more hedgy stuff like “alison could be town but…”

tbh though i might be giving jack too much of a pass because at the end of the day i do think that his reasoning for scumread alison is kind of bad and im unconsciously operating under the assumption that he has a polarized wolfgame, which is kind of making me treat him with gids gloves. idk. i dont want this read to be as null at it is but there u go

i think that p#120 from kate was a wolfy post and came off a little bit self-conscious. i thought she responded to pressure somewhat awkwardly too. i don’t have any other thoughts

lucy is town

i think mac is probably town for reasons that ill explain if u really want me to

im mildly bothered by the way that neon has treated me in this game. she has consistently shaded me and implied that it was wolfy for me to think that the game was boring during the first few pages and has regularly downplayed townreads on me, but she has offered no commentary on my posts beyond that whatsoever and she seems barely interested in engaging with me/communicating with me at all

it reminds me of the sabi invitational game where she consistently treated me in bad faith when she was mafia and i let it slide because i thought she was tonally towny/she had conviction. she’s essentially treating me the same way here and i’ve had trouble getting past it. i don’t really care about her posts beyond that and ive barely paid attention to them

i think porsche is most likely town because i perceive her as being mildly polarized and the depth of analysis/thought that she has projected so far is proly town indicative for her, and because i think #760 in particular would be a difficult post for a wolf to write about themselves, particularly if they traditionally struggle with wolfing in general

holding off on my rondo read for reasons

i think it was mildly wolfy that roxy shifted her positioning toward kate a bit awkwardly when she was engaging with alison but i would be lying if i said if i thought that any of her posts were alignment indicative. i i get the sense that she’s the type of player that will project towniness better if she’s town if she is left alone and able to do her own thing, so im not really interested in adding to the pressure on her at the moment and i’d like to see how she plays when she isn’t being bombarded by the rest of the game

i thought it was towny that seanzie used his experience with my wolfgame as a foundation for his reado n me in this game. i’m kind of ambivalent about the rest of his posts but i proly wuldnt touch him today

sig had a towny opening but his vote on alison a little while ago was bad and felt opportunistic. i actually scumlean him now

one of my biggest concerns about tutu was actually that she was townreading me too easily and uncritically so the fact that she suddenly got super paranoid about me being mafia and revoked her townread felt towny. idk how to read he but i would also not touch her today for various reasons
Big post, read on Mac highlighted. Again, says Mac is town but does not give reasons. Why not elaborate here? It is a big enough post that I don't think SPF felt like they would be asked to elaborate.

Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:08 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:50 am
Neon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:47 am My strongest SR right now I think is Alison/Mac I just think they've been treating people poorly for bad reasons and are digging in their heels in a way that feels less like trying to solve the game and more like trying to make people look bad for things that aren't really that bad.
can you give me some examples of where you think mac specifically has done this?
That most recent post calling out half the player base for how they are playing when I think at least some of them are in their normal meta for one
SPF questions Neon about Mac, after Neon's response, SPF did not ever respond again.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:29 pm
Baudib1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:04 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:57 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:55 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:50 pm ftr im insecure about my vote on jack and im not sure that im going to hold there

i just prefer him over the baud/alison wagons atm
What wagon(s) would you prefer instead?
i perceive the pool of creature/splints/falcon/sig as being likely to contain at least 2 wolves
I would guess you are probably correct.

I would say of the people casing/pushing me, Rondo is almost certainly town; Seanzie feels genuine; Falcon seems extremely sus. Bereft feels pure and his casing of Falcon was solid work.

Splints/sig/wilgy are flying utr.

Roxy seems rand to me; I think the pushback on Alison is likely at least partially wolf-driven though that doesn't mean much for Roxy's alignment imo.

Pretty tough to yeet mafia in this game state with 5 living so if you want to move to another wagon please @me, i'm out of posts. Who else do you trust?
i townread mac, lucy, bereft, tutuu, you, and sig roughly in that order. i'm not willing to vote for alison today even though i'm not sure about her alignment

i had fingersplints as a light townlean but she just hopped on alison in a way that extremely rubs me the wrong way

rest of the game feels kind of inscrutable to me rn
Another Mac townread without explanation

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:58 pm mac
lucy
tutuu
dennis
bereft
rondo
baud

my current townreads in the exact order that i townread them. i think there is one mafia maximum in this pool

im capped now so gl gl
Another Mac townread without explanation.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:32 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:30 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:26 pm i really hope that a wolf did that.
I am not sure this is a real thought.
no, it was a bad decision but i dont care to debate it
possibly w/w theatre. Where did this go?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:38 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:32 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:30 pm You guys should policy Mac if he doesn't produce pelts soon by the way since he's wrong on both fingersplints and me which is pretty out of form for him.
Shit I need to bus someone. Um, ah. Fuck um.

[VOTE: staypositivefriend] aubergine
slay queen
possibly w/w theatre. Weak w/w read though. Definitely w/w compatible, maybe not w/w indicative.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:36 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:34 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:33 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:31 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:06 pm if creature roxy sig and jack contains more than one villager then this game is probably a loss
this is nonsense
why
it's blatantly untrue that town can't win unless all 3 are mafia and there's no reason to feel that way much less say it
your perception of the gamestate is very different from mine if you think that but okay

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:51 am mine are mac, lucy, and bereft. if lucy doesn't count, then i would add tutuu.
SPF loves talking about their Mac townread. Also Bereft really fits the idea of SPF trying to hard powerwolf. As others have mentioned, Bereft clearly is not a newbie, and with almost nothing else known about them, I have a hard time thinking people are going to towncore them this hard. I need to give them a careful lookover before I really commit to this idea, so this is more spitballing than confident thought, but right now, SPF powerwolfing with Mac and Bereft is on my mind. For those who said Bereft wouldn't need to do what they've done as a wolf and could just slank since they're new, I mean... aren't they kinda doing that, just not completely and outrightly playing bad? I know the few times I've wolfed on my first time on a new sight, I've come off as a quiet but insightful townie.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:44 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:28 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 6:56 am cant sleep and wanted to share the stray thought that out of all the people who have pushed/shaded mac, seanzie is the towniest of them. his read on mac has a level of specificity (ie: him comparing mac to his wolfgame in GoC, him accusing mac of trying to destroy his WIM, him accusing mac of sharing responsibility for the alison wagon) that make me think he is putting real thought into mac's alignment, and the way he has kind of dug in his heels on his mac read upon being pressured makes me think that the conviction behind his real is real

i think a world where seanzie is a wolf pushing on mac only really makes sense to me if the rest of his team is cornered and he doesn't have many other viable options, but even in that world, i would expect seanzie to be a little bit more strategic about the way that he's pushing mac instead of just loudly insisting he's mafia in the most brazen way possible

i have no idea what seanzie's wolf meta is like so im open to other thoughts but yeah
and why is he not just correct?

btw porscha is lock town now
because i do not think you are mafia even if there exists a theoretical world in which you are playing significantly townier than every wolfgame i have seen from ou
Again no explanation of the town!Mac read here. This one I REALLY don't like, because the question isn't "Do you townread me?", it's "why isn't Sean correct", and SPF responded by NOT saying WHY they townread Mac, just that they townread Mac. "why isn't Sean correct" in this context is asking "WHY do you townread Mac". Bad. Bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad BAD.

I'd really like some input on this. The game does not feel like it is a bunch of polarized people and slankers wolfing. I think with 5 wolves in a 20 person setup, powerwolfing makes sense. Please someone talk to me.

---------------------------------------
After going through and commenting on all the posts in the above spoiler, a new line of thinking came to me, included below. Spoilered because I am not super confident about it and it is not fully fleshed out and I don't want it to detract from what I have above about Mac/SPF (even though some if it leaked into the thoughts about the posts I've quoted)
Spoiler: show
Bereft fits perfectly into a Mac/SPF powerwolfing team, at least based on these posts and what I can remember off the top of my head from Bereft's play. I'mma go ISO them

I don't know of a satisfactory way that does not require a dissertation length post, or at least something that would cause me a great deal of intellectual labor to come across as being appropriately convincing since it seems that you're really in the weeds with this.

I believe that Mac is a polarized player, and that it is easy to distinguish their ranges as long as you pay attention to the right things, and the only problem is that everyone pays attention to the wrong things and over level themselves because Mac is all powerful and can apparently do anything as wolf and can only destroy wolves as town.

If you want to scumread all of the stronger players for having this exact same opinion on Mac, then that is a worldview one can construct (have you considered Lucy yet for diving a locktown Mac out of thin air?, oh wait I forgot they're the oracle, so it would just be me and SPF), but I would only ask that you elaborate on why exactly the gamestate points to the obvious pool of wolves not containing enough of them. You claim that the POE consists of the polarized players and slankers and that it "doesn't feel that why". Firstly, who are the polarized players being misread? Mac already admitted that their Falcon scumread was heavily OMGUS based and should not be trusted. Are there other people who are obv town by meta that are being scumread? Because I cannot seem to find any, and if you'd read my coldlist you'd know that I pay a great deal attention to claims of alignment based on meta. Secondly, I understand that uncovering Mac powerwolfing with SPF and Bereft is glamorous, but I don't even understand what vibes would lead you to think that is especially likely. Do you think Creature is mafia? Because if not, the D1 wagons were all on town and all of us, (Mac/SPF/me) stated pretty clearly that we thought the wagons were awful in tandem with baudib. (note that SPF scumread creature but I would think this to be a minor point)

This is also coincidentally why I most want sig dead if possible, because it would pretty much expose what's been happening all along FMPOV.

The only piece that doesn't fit in my analysis is Wilgy. But I think that's because Wilgy is the Zealot.

Yeah Im not dooming either, I'm currently in glee, the spell is broken town has control back over the game.

You guys wanted wolf agenda? I present to you, wolf agenda. Jack waan't acting alone in pushing Alison, I think Jack thought they would get away with it, and that is why I cant trust Alison's last townread on the slot.

Sig happens to be heavily unpartnered with Dennis.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:11 pm
lucy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:53 pm i am hard vetoing alison lynch today
Lucy, assuming you’re IC it does mean your reads are genuine, but it’s usually town leading misvotes anyway so until you’ve got solid info like red checks I don’t think you should have an oversized say tbh.

Weak argument.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:11 pm I think Alison ane Creatuee both look bad. Creature is jumping from wagon to wagon with very little actual posts to back it up. While Alison keeps coming out with really bad takes that at the very least don’t seem pro civ. The big 3 I heavily dislike is her back and forth with Roxy, trying to let Lucy decide who we’re voting, and being so pro voting off lower posters.

I also think we’re seeing some attempts to shift focus by the mafia team away from the leading wagons.

What attempts? From which people? The wagons remained tightly clustered around ABC wagons this entire time.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:33 pm I also wouldn’t consider Mac a strong town voice the more I think about it. He isn’t cleared, he hasn’t led the charge of a flipped mafia member ect,

And while we know Lucy is a civ that doesn’t mean she’s right so is that a strong town voice?

More discrediting.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:34 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:23 pm @sig
@Jackofhearts2005
@Roxy
@fingersplints
@falcon45ca

Alison flips town > who are the wolves on your wagon? Who are the town?

Alison flips wolf > who bussed? who is pure?
Well I’ll say it’s possible for us all to be civ unless mafia is also up to be voted off. However, I’d eye Falcon or Splints the most of us.

If she flips mafia then Myself and Jack are town for sure and I’d say roxy looks very good. But, given the game State I think it would depend on Indy player style whether they’d bus or even vote for a top wagon.

Realistically I’d say the players voting off major wagons should be eyed closely if Alison doesn’t flip mafia and we aren’t thinking the counter wagons are mafia either

This literally just states "no matter what Alison flips, me and my buddies Roxy and Jack always look dandy".

Look at that beatiful posturing on Roxy/Kate.
Look at that beatiful casting of doubt on Mac/Alison/Rondo/SPF/Tutuu.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:44 pm I’m definitely eyeing Allison and rondo right now the most.

Mac is a hazy read he’s playing a bit weird, but not ready to commit to a read either way.

Jack, falcon, Sean, Porsche, and Lucy, are all people I’d not want to vote off today.

I think Roxy looked very good with her responses and I see where she’s coming from. However, she just tricked me last game and civ reading Kate after she just said she hard protects teammates doesn’t mean a lot. They were just mafia together though so the odds are in our favor they’re not both mafia.

I’ll add for those not familiar Roxy is old school from the TS era where you need to be alive to win games as a civ. That’ll change her approach a bit and make her do some stuff that might come across as weird.

Stay positive and tuutuu are both posting but I’ve got zero reads on them which I don’t like

The most wolf-agendaed post in this game is this one.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:17 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:31 am What is the basis of this Kate wagon? I've seen nothing that's pinged me...am I blind?
I agree, she had only made one post and Allison seemed to think it was bad? Then people just sheeped that lead

I'm wrong, sig defended Kate, not Roxy.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 5:11 pm
Roxy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:11 am Hi yay shiny new game for me to bitch about too many posts to read

sig wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:07 pm Also [VOTE: roxy] aubergine

This is for the last game pocketing me like that so rude.

I'm not sure you would even fit in my pocket. I am positive I was not rude but full of love and happiness.
Lol

Okay lemme find someone else to vote for I guess

Ala Jack, *thonk*

I will take the L on not calling Roxy obvious mafia; upon reshoring Creature, Rondo, Porscha as stronger townreads, there literally isn't much room and Roxy has been L0 wolfy. Roxy disappeared because of IRL, and as such could not play to the best of their abilities.

Upon perusing Rondo's iso, it's very towny.
Creature is extremely towny, you can't just have the same exact worldview as me and be wolf.

Yeah I understand tutuu, its why you're an obvious town.

Porscha's read on Dr. Wilgy tells me that Dr. Wilgy is able to fake some amount of microtells, so I've further dug in on my position that tutuu gave Wilgy a pass a bit too easily. I also am relieved I threw Porscha out of my solve before they started becoming more obv town again.

I can even answer my own question, "bad town plays" is just "voted Roxy".

Anyways, if Wilgy were town in tutuu's line of logic, I'd expect to see a defense of Wilgy, and again I've seen zilch. Roxy putting them as ok doesn't change any of this. Its "antispew", just don't bother reading into it in general.

Roxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:42 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:35 am
Roxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:32 am Ps this is my only appearance this day. I voted Dennis

Bc I won't be back or respond to anyone.
If you wont highlight how its obvious on Dennis I wont vote him or rally on your behalf
Fu Rondo for making me want to help you

Every game, 2 so far, he finds his own suspicions he did it in his own fashion, this game feels like he is being led in the thread by whatever bad town play is in action. No questions just doing what he told. He did not do this before in either game. It feels like a mafia member told him here's how to be bad. And it's obv bc It does not fit with his play from the other games.

Ps this ploy will no longer work and will self destruct when I hit submit

And exactly what bad town plays would that be?

Anyways, I don't perceive Roxy as being an outed wolf (if they are a wolf they're obviously in antispew, its actually a pretty blatant antispew now that I think about it), nor do I think that Wilgy gets spewed town by anything that has happened.

Notice that my solve claims that Alison correctly identified 3 wolves D1.

I think that this easily explains why D1 ended up as such as crapshow and the concerted effort to kill Alison that we've seen.

Fin.

I'm sending in Wilgy/Jack/Kate/Roxy/Sig as my D2 wolfteam guess. D2 was scuffed and shouldnt be counted as a real day and there's only been 1 NK, so this is my D2 guess.

That list would put me at Wilgy/Jack/Porscha/Sig

But it may just in fact be Wilgy/Jack/Kate/Roxy/Sig which gives you a nice quintet.

Current cold reads on everyone:

Creature - Solid Town - I townread Creature D1. Alison townread Creature D1 for reasons I also had. I townread Creature D2. Lucy also townreads Creature D2 and they also claim meta experience.
Dennis - Solid Town - Purity
DrWilgy - Lean Wolf - Reads like how I'd wolf 2 years ago.
falcon45ca - Lean Town - Both Seanzie and Falcon claim Falcon is obviously town and they've also provided why.
Jackofhearts2005 - Lean Wolf - Their play is empty once you remove the Alison situation. I don't respect the Alison townread, think its weak, and was surprised that Alison had even made that read at all, because I thought that for Alison, variants of TWTBAW didn't exist.
Kate - Null - Alison's townread exists. I don't dislike it, but I'd also rather not make a read off of such a thing, and the rest of their posts are too scant for me to feel justified taking any position.
lucy - IC
MacDougall - IC
Porscha - GTH Wolf - Not obvious town. The thing holding me back is the fact they've been in perpetual catchup mode which is not actually what wolves do in my experience, and also that unlike tutuu, I have Creature and falcon as fine so I don't see where the partner interactions are.
RondoDimBuckle - Lean Town - Have little to say here, theoretically they could be the wolf that decided to bother to appear like they are townsiding, but they had the correct reaction today so they get a pass for now.
Roxy - Null - I think their reaction to Alison's scumread was atrocious and its possible that they fell apart to pressure. Alison's original idea that Roxy was defending Kate also holds some merit, after all, why does Roxy react in that manner otherwise wrt Kate? The issue is that Lucy's earlier position holds merit. Roxy's been nowhere and none of this looks like a wolf playing to help the team at the moment. Will reread Roxy D2 because I remember none of it and I think I'm just uninformed right now. I also am beginning to think that if Roxy is a wolf then Kate sorta has to be one following the earlier line of questioning.
Seanzie - Lean Town - Purely tone based.
sig - Wolfy - If there's one person who's actually playing like a wolf, its sig. Somehow has "reasonable" reasons to do all the nonsense Wilgy and Falcon have been trying out. I wonder if they defended Roxy, I feel like that happened at some point, maybe Im wrong.
staypositivefriend - Solid Town - SPF is trying extremely hard today to make me rescind this read. Why are they voting Dennis?
tutuu - Obvious Town - Obvious is obvious.

I will note that Porscha said they'd look more into ... Baudib and Bereft. Baudib, the obvtown who got shielded by the townleaders, and Bereft, whose been bereft of scumreads.

I don't understand what worldview this comes from, and they'd said they'd explain later but I'm certainly not holding my breath for that.

Jack, you're hopelessly unfunny. Ranking the relative strengths of tutuu's w/w cases, really?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:48 pm
I think jack is town now because he's playing in a way that would essentially guarantee he dies if he gets his goal of killing me - I can't see any worlds where he survives much longer if I flip and that seems like an odd line for a mafia to take, since he doesn't have enough of a meta of thunderdoming wrongly as town to get away with it.

I'm sorely disappointed that this is the reasoning.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:52 pm
lucy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:29 pm i am oracle, i have no idea why i'm facing so much opposition, what do you guys think about me being openly opposed and not listened to?

is it towny? is it scummy? what purpose does it serve?
I think any one person, even an IC, trying to take the reins of the game into their own hands is extremely bad for threadhealth, wagonomics, and in general gameplay. It creates a gamestate that is extremely easy for wolves to work around and that limits all the townies abilities to do their things.

It is towny to be opposed to a bad strategy. The purpose opposing it serves is to hopefully convince you to realize that what you're asking of the thread is IMO a bad way to play the game that does more harm than good.

Did you guys know that Oracle gets alignment info?

I totally didnt realize that until recently.

Maybe Lucy has info we dont.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:50 pm the mafia clearly rushed an Alison wagon so they could play the card...

Thank you for stating the only natural reaction to have after that.

I will now proceed to waste a post asking how it is possible that I've gained zero info on what Dr. Wilgy is like a wolf. That I've had zero ability to discern whether Dr.Wilgy fakes some level of emotion as wolf. That there's been zero reads on Dr. Wilgy besides tutuu that aren't just "kill because theyre spouting BS" (and yes they are spouting nonsense dont @ me wilgy)

I will note that Seanzie defended falcon, there is definitely a difference in how these players have been treated or am I imagining things.

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