The Syndicate

But here, I'll post a special rainbow list for today.

Dom
Illyria
Scotty
Lorab
ika
Matt

How many suspects do you have Scotty?

Even if there was only one mafia left, I don't think I would have only one suspect. If I did, that means I would be able to effectively rule out every single other player as mafia.


That's not how I feel here.

LoRab wrote:

Dom wrote:What are the reasons you're not bad?

Read any of my defense posts, in which I talk about points that have been made that others have found suspicious.

And, I'm not bad because the role I was sent isn't a bad role.

But, really, because I've been doing my best to help the civies. I haven't jumped on a number of the lynch trains that have formed. I did have a lynch train formed against me--which at least 1 civie thought was BS based on the fact that I was saved. And I'll make that 2 civies that thought it was BS because of Wilgy (even though no role is infallible, as I point out above).

The problem with this argument, is this is exactly what Sorsha did too. She voted off of several bandwagons, and she had Matt defending against her lynch, though I guess in this case I don't think he is a civilian.

Speaking of redirects, what if the mafia got a hold of a lynch switch the day you were supposed to be lynched. You said we can't be sure about Scotty because of the potential for redirects, but we also can't be sure that a civilian switched the lynch from you.

LoRab wrote:Also, and I know this is WIFOM, but look at the kills. Do those really look like choices that I would advocate? Even knowing that any 1 baddie only has so much of a voice on a team, I don't think any of the choices are ones with which I would remotely agree to.

And I also know that the baddies probably know my role by now and would be quite happy to lynch me. So, the fact that people keep mentioning my name for amorphous reasons--some of those folks have to be bad and are trying to keep things in that direction.

Yeah that's WIFOM. :P

Epignosis wrote:The Day phase ends tomorrow. I'm not completely sure my vote is going to stay where it is, and I think making turning this into a dilemma for the other voters (Epi or Lorab) is dangerous and premature. I intend to work things out as much as I can, and then encourage people to vote the person I think is bad.

Also, Epignosis channeling his inner JaggedJimmyJay right here. Epignosis is obviously mafia.

Scotty wrote:Note that I did a complete 180 turnaround from my night case against Epi, and not voting him.

MM, why are you voting Epi? You've given less on the matter than Phil the Groundhog cares about seeing his shadow every year.

Why is everyone calling me a groundhog lately? I'm not remotely a groundhog.

I think today's the day to vote for Epignosis. I found ika's case very convincing. I might switch before the day is over unless the lynch ends up being somewhat unanimous.

Why did you do a complete 180 on Epignosis last night? I find it suspicious that you no longer suspect him the day I decide to vote for him.

Epignosis wrote:If you're a civilian, consider Lorab. Think about her.

I'll consider it. We'll see where we're at at the end of the day.

Can we not provoke and yell at each other? Only MP is allowed to ragequit, and that's because he has the best meltdowns.

Epignosis, why do we fall?

I think Epignosis brought an argument to the table that isn't viable.

I've played that extension of 2048. I got bored after only 8192.

Anyone want to try some of this watermelon lime ale I'm drinking?

ika wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Dom, why did you vote for... nobody?

hey MM who would you vote for tommorw?

You

Or Scotty.

Or Matt.



Epignosis has been removed from the lynch poll three times now. Either he his mafia and has blackmailed that role three times now and succeeded, he is mafia and some civilian trusts him enough to keep removing him for no particular reason, or he's a civilian. I believe it is the final of these three options.

Linki: I know, I am just teasing you.

Dom, why did you vote for... nobody?

As you say, llama probably wasn't paying attention, so he probably didn't look at the lynch poll before voting in it.

Linki: or that.

Epignosis wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I would rather spend my Day 8 activity pursuing Mafia (assuming I may be active Day 8), but if I have to sift through every single one of my own posts to show thellama73 is a dingus, so be it.

Fwiw, llama may not have looked at a post from you, but someone else.

That's right! That means you have to look at all the posts.

I think thellama73 was doing a poor job with his role, and I predict, a endgame, he will say as much. I had him marked as a different role, as I said, based on activity. I had somewhat assumed Cora was long gone.

And

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

ika wrote:so prob epi and dom?

Llama said nothing about Dom though, just Epignosis and Scotty, at least in terms of suspicions.

Why Dom?

thellama73 voted Dom last (see above), following me. I think it was daft.

Consider: If thellama73 knows I'm bad, why would he follow my vote on Dom?

He's not paying attention, and he, proud fellow that he is, doesn't want his P-Score to drop.

Oh, I forgot about today's vote.

Are you sure he didn't just vote for Dom because Dom comes before Epignosis who was not on the poll? I know we won't find an answer to that question, but I wouldn't be surprised.

ika wrote:so prob epi and dom?

Llama said nothing about Dom though, just Epignosis and Scotty, at least in terms of suspicions.

Why Dom?

Epignosis wrote:I would rather spend my Day 8 activity pursuing Mafia (assuming I may be active Day 8), but if I have to sift through every single one of my own posts to show thellama73 is a dingus, so be it.

Fwiw, llama may not have looked at a post from you, but someone else.

That's right! That means you have to look at all the posts.

Sorry, didn't mean to interrupt.

I took a look at llama's posts to see if he took a look at any lines in the thread and/or has any insight.

thellama73 wrote:

Matt wrote:Rip Silver.

I'll be catching up sometime in the next 24 hours or so.

Really?

I'm voting for Nerolunar right now, without explanation.

Llama voted Nerolunar early on Day 2 without explanation. This isn't very useful since Nerolunar is already dead and civilian though.

thellama73 wrote:

Sorsha wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I guess we can rule out Ika as being mafia, then, can't we?

Um... why?

Because I believe Ika to be incapable of separating his personal relationships from the game, and I do not believe he would consent to killing Silver night one, if he were part of the mafia team.

Later Day 2, llama defended ika for the Silverwolf kill, and continued to do so throughout the day.

thellama73 wrote:That's the kind of night I like to see!

I'm putting my vote on Daisy for now. For someone who keeps insisting she doesn't mind getting attention, she seems to mind it quite a bit.

Llama started Day 3 with a vote for Spacedaisy, so he may have checked her. Again, this doesn't help since Spacedaisy isn't mafia. Llama continued to tangle with Daisy as the day wore on.

thellama73 wrote:I am still pretty suspicious of Daisy, but Edith's request to move on compels me to say that I'm starting to feel bad about Epignosis. His cool, calculating style this game makes me suspect a baddie Epi.

To begin Day 4, llama suspects Epignosis out of left field in spite of Edith's post.

thellama73 wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:I want reason for your Rab suspicion 1st if you can daisy.

Yes, I concur with this.

Scotty is one I could easily see being bad. He's kept kind of a low profile this game.

Llama comes in later on to accuse Scotty of keeping a low profile.

He voted Scotty later that day.

thellama73 wrote:

Nerolunar wrote:Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

I do. Lynch switch is a civ power. Unless she got lucky with the power steal, I am comfortable ruling her out.

Llama rules Lorab out of being bad on Day 4, though this may have nothing to do with his ability.

thellama73 wrote:

Matt wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I'm going with Scotty again. A bit puzzled as to why the people who agreed with me yesterday have been shifting away from him.

I think it was Day 2 when Wilgy pretty much cleared Scotty, and in later posts down the line, you can see Wilgy continue to say things like "Don't lynch Scotty!"

Derp

Oh right. I'm voting for Epignosis then. I think he's playing a masterful game and playing us all for fools.

Day 5, llama goes back to Scotty and Epignosis.

He later said he has a hunch about Epignosis.

The rest of llama's posts are all related to Epignosis, throughout Days 5 and 6.



Night 1, llama may have lie-detected Nerolunar and bad to a mafia conclusion, or ika and come to a civ conclusion.

Night 2, llama may have lie-detected Spacedaisy and come to a mafia conclusion, although this isn't helpful.

Night 3, llama may have lie-detected Epignosis or Scotty, and come to a mafia conclusion.

Night 4, llama returns to Scotty and Epignosis, meaning he may have looked at one of them again.

Night 5, well llama doesn't do anything Day 6 except vote Epignosis, so he must have been sure.

Night 6, llama didn't post Day 7, so nothing.

Epignosis wrote:I switched my vote to Matt for now, even though MM has done a fair bit of agreeing with me / defending me.

I agree with this move.

I'm starting to wonder if Matt was silenced though. He's the only one who hasn't posted today or voted.

Well llama can't be silenced given his vote, yet he hasn't posted in 5 days.

Black Rock wrote:

LoRab wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

LoRab wrote:Personally, mainly because I'm stubborn, I'm not putting it outside the realm of possibility that LC was bad and his team killed him to protect his identity, seeing that his lynch seemed inevitable. What that means for this new lynch, I'm not sure. But I'm not buying that LC was civ. If he was, killing him would make no sense for the baddies.

Killing him regardless makes no sense from a strategic standpoint.

I've seen it happen. And your logic of what makes sense is not necessarily the same as others' logic.

Like DD, I was om his team and never understood or agreed. As far as I was concerned it didn't help. Would LC do it? Sure he would. But why? We have discussed it extensively. I decided it was a shit move. I think he agreed with it. Taking your own numbers out is always stupid, if you ask me.

Is this a reference to another game? What's DD?

Black Rock wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm voting for Matt.

Why?

Your need to vote for him this game is just something I don't understand.

Why?

Because there's mafia left to lynch and Matt was trying to lynch Illy over Sorsha yesterday. Also, we haven't heard from Matt today. I suppose he could be silenced, but I'm fine leaving my vote there right now.

Who do you plan on voting for?

I'm voting for Matt.

Epignosis wrote:Am I capable of poor strategy? I suppose I am, just like I'm capable of missing a basketball hoop by more than fifty feet.

Certainly! You are human like the rest of us.

I changed my mind about llama though. He is incapable of anything less than perfection.

Actually, I think Epignosis very capable of this sort of thing, but this is the third time he's been of the lynch poll, so he's likely a non-mafia role.

Epignosis wrote:Well then.

ika, MetalMarsh89, and Matt are the three names at the top of my list for that.

Who would throw strategy to the sea and do something like kill Long Con on the eve of his lynch?

I agree with you on Matt and ika, but I disagree with you on the Metalmarsh89 fellow.

I can think of a couple reasons that Long Con was nightkilled. They aren't great reasons, but based on recent events, one of them has to be the case.

1) Mafia felt safe enough to make such a kill because they know the civilians are looking in the wrong direction.
2) Mafia is in a dangerous position, and opted to making a head-scratching kill choice to through off their pursuers.
3) As you mentioned, Long Con was a role that the mafia did not want alive.



As for whodunnit, I wouldn't put it past anyone who is currently left in the game, with the exceptions of BR and Epignosis.

I think I'll have a drink tonight after that result.

Long Con wrote:Hey guys, that was a harrowing lynch, I'm glad we finally got one in Sorsha. Oh yeah, also how's about you don't lynch me because I'm not a freakin' baddie?!

I don't know what inspired people to hop on the classic old "LC is a baddie" train, but I assure you that you don't want to lynch me. I don't really know what else to say, is there a case against me, or did someone just point their finger and everyone ran where they were pointing?

I'm always willing to lynch Long Con because Monopoly and Flash and the list goes on.

ika wrote:scums are in longcon/llama/matt/dom

i think the former 2 then the later being the last

I would rate them Long Con > Matt > thellama73 > Dom.

I agree on the first two, but why llama and Dom?

I think I have a clue as to what that refers to.

Checks the front page.

Yay mafia!

Get back here Matt. Weren't you the one trying to get Illy lynched?

Wait, Matt never voted for Sorsha.

Matt wrote:Since it's not especially fair to ask Epi these kinds of questions...

People voting Epig...

Have you thought about

a) Wilgy, the btsc checker, named him as his top suspect shortly before he died...

and

b) Epig has been taken off the poll twice by players who share btsc.

Derp.

Quote for truth.

Matt wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Matt wrote:Long Con, the other day you said you could see Illy as bad, you should vote her!

Sorsha vote Illy to save yourself!

So you think Long Con and Sorsha are both civilians?

No, tbqh, I think everyone's guilty until proven innocent.

But since Ika added a vote to Illy, I'm tryin' to get a train started.

My list of who I think could possibly be bad...

ILLY

Then ika (if Ika's bad then Lorab), if Illy's bad then Black Rock.

And

You. I keep flip flopping on you. But at least I'm not lying about it, amiright?

Does this include you?

Matt wrote:I never voted Sorsha cuz Epi did btw.

EPI MOVE YOUR VOTE TO ILLY GAAAAAAAAAAAAH

I don't think anybody accused you of voting for Sorsha because Epi did.

Epignosis wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I prefer a Long Con lynch to a Sorsha lynch myself, based on my reading. I will be around just before the deadline (and in the hour that comes before it).

Would you vote LC under the current insane circumstances?

By "insane circumstances," do you mean the insane lack of any consensus regarding the votes, or the insane LC?

Yes

Then yes. The disingenuous nature to Long Con's Day 1 vote is, for me, the strongest point against him, among several. I don't worry too much about posting restrictions when they come from civilians. In one of llama's full games, I was cursed (I think MM did it to me) and I got lynched. I was bad. People could have had mercy on me and let me carry on another day, but they didn't.

Yes that was me. I remember making a case you were bad one day, then cursing you that night so you couldn't defend against it.

I won't be having a drink right now because I'm in the library. In my opinion, libraries are probably the greatest place to have a drink though.

I died early in Turf Wars, so I don't really remember anything that happened after Day 2. How did that one pan out?

Scotty wrote:Why would you be dead? To be frank, you haven't been all that active in reads until this phase, so if I were Mafia, I wouldn't find a problem with you being alive.
In the same sense, I feel like I'm only alive because I've been following Epi around all game and not losing any threats. So why is Epi still alive? Yes his cases have been largely fruitless thus far, but it's not a secret that he can be dangerous when civ.

That's a good case of WIFOM. If you're mafia, would you nightkill someone who proceeds to lynch civilian after civilian?

If you're following Epignosis around all game, I assume you don't think he is mafia. Why do you want to lynch him today?

Then again, I can't recall Epignosis ever "ISOing a bunch of people" in MP fashion so there's that. Nor do I recall Long Con ever ISOing a single player.

I'll move my vote to Sorsha.

I agree with Black Rock about Epignosis. We should lynch somebody else today. I can't recall him ever taking the front seat in a game where he was mafia.

Epignosis wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Epignosis is right, I am just here.

How exactly do I have the fourth-most posts again?

I said you were just here. I didn't say you were not here.

That's what I said.

Epignosis is right, I am just here.

How exactly do I have the fourth-most posts again?

Here it was.

Sorsha wrote:Yeah. I'm voting Nero too. I could also vote ika, I'd like him to explain what "the point" actually was when he said "that's not the point"here I kinda want to vote LC too over the "slip" too. Not totally sure if it was one but seems like strange wording otherwise.

This was Sorsha's only post on Day 5, and it was to pop in and put a vote on Nero. Scotty posted his vote for Nero just before, and that was his only post of the day until about an hour before the deadline.

The timing of these two things is probably coincidental. But looking at Sorsha's vote, she did vote for Nerolunar without a reason, while offering reasons to vote for ika and Long Con and also stating interest. This doesn't make much sense.

Black Rock wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Black Rock, what is your opinion of MetalMarsh?

He's been friendly to me, but his last post does not make sense. Maybe it's because my perspective should be obvious but I thought MM understood the obvious this game. It's not personal it's just not a good play if you were bad.

Do you think he's ignoring that fact out of convenience?

I looked at the roles, and I think I gather what you're saying. I'll wait another day to pursue it then.

Black Rock wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Well, as it stands, either Long Con or Sorsha can place their vote onto me for survival. I'm none too pleased about that.

That's pretty crappy. I'm pretty sure civvies, at least some, have voted for you and they need to change it now.

A Sorsha vote is a good bet. I will vote to save Epignosis. I'm confidant he is not bad.

If you are not confidant, like I am, about Sorsha then vote LC. I will switch my vote to him to save Epignosis.

Also Matt is a bad vote. So don't vote there. If he was bad he would have never tried to push suspicion on me.

I'll switch my vote to Long Con.

I don't understand what you are saying about Matt here. Is this a personal thing?

How do you feel about Sorsha?

She has been quiet. I thought she was quiet in Spirited Away, but she's been event quieter and less participatory here. Of her 40 posts, almost half of them came on Day 1. But the same could be said for a few people.

There was something else that struck me about her, I'll have to look back and see what it was.

Epignosis wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Black Rock, what is your opinion of MetalMarsh?

He's been friendly to me, but his last post does not make sense. Maybe it's because my perspective should be obvious but I thought MM understood the obvious this game. It's not personal it's just not a good play if you were bad.

Do you think he's ignoring that fact out of convenience?

I think he's doing a lot of things out of convenience. But as always, I find it hard to pull the trigger on a MetalMarsh lynch.

I believe we spoke earlier about how, if you were looking to lynch MM, you really couldn't do much on the basis of his posts. For me, that's still the case. He's just...there.

Hi, I'm... here, and I can see you talking about me.

I feel like I haven't gotten fully into this game. Some games I do, some games I don't, and this is one of the ones where I feel like I'm a step behind.

Black Rock wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Well, as it stands, either Long Con or Sorsha can place their vote onto me for survival. I'm none too pleased about that.

That's pretty crappy. I'm pretty sure civvies, at least some, have voted for you and they need to change it now.

A Sorsha vote is a good bet. I will vote to save Epignosis. I'm confidant he is not bad.

If you are not confidant, like I am, about Sorsha then vote LC. I will switch my vote to him to save Epignosis.

Also Matt is a bad vote. So don't vote there. If he was bad he would have never tried to push suspicion on me.

I'll switch my vote to Long Con.

I don't understand what you are saying about Matt here. Is this a personal thing?

Sorsha wrote:MM?

Epignosis wrote:In marriage, it is not the language that changes, but rather, the volume.

LL

KK

Matt wrote:MM - I think you knew exactly what I meant when I said Illy didn't vote for civs on Days 1 and 2, so I wonder what your game is. You're better then that as a civvie, or no?

I pointed out that looking at voting records based on what we know isn't going to be helpful.

I also think you slipped there. Why should I know exactly what you meant?



Speaking of slips, Long Con comes to mind. Sig accused him of a slip yesterday and then was nightkilled. Long Con was also mentioned in Edith's post. I think he's worth looking into.

Epignosis wrote:Despite Lady Edith's wishes, Matt is up next.

I'm going to make this simple. I've gone through Matt's posts and they are everything I expect of Matt being Matt. I also have a role in mind for him.

I don't plan on voting him today. Maybe another Day, but not this one.

Moving on.

Won't you consider voting for him today?


I see Epignosis already did some research on Long Con, I'll come back to that.

Scotty wrote:Yo.

I'm actually really perturbed by Lady Rose. Like, I have literally no idea what she is doing.

As far as we know, she has insanified Wilgy to speak in weird caps lock cipher, and just today, LC seems to be afflicted with the same stupid cipher.

Forgive my bluntness but if LC's insanity is legit, Lady Rose is inept. I mean come on:

She provides a bit of fun to the thread by insanifying a player each night with the insanity of her choice

It's her choice to use her powers, but so far, that would mean she has done 2 insanifies in 5 cycles, and both times have been the exact same stupid insanity.

This just seems too unlikely to be true.

I think LC is faking.

Didn't people say the same thing when DrWilgy was cursed?

Sorsha wrote:I'm not LCs teammate, I'm just lazy and not finding anything very suspicious to comment on when I am around.

BR suspecting LC is good enough for me, I did have some suspicion of him earlier in the game, plus there was the "slip" that sig pointed out also *votes LC*

Is there anyone you'd be willing to lynch besides Long Con?

Also, considering the Long Con is likely insanified, do you still want to lynch him?

Epignosis wrote:

Sorsha wrote:Well if you've made up your mind that I'm bad you aren't going to like anything I have to say about it, you call it an excuse but it's the truth. This is so far off from how I play when I'm bad but whatever, you think I'm bad but you aren't even voting for me?

The lady has one vote. She can't have more than one suspicion when there's three mafia?

I think ika was accused of the same thing in the Champs Scrimmage. :P

But alas, he was mafia.

Epignosis wrote:

ika wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

ika wrote:also if it wasnt clear sotty is town and trying to use math to figure out if someone is scum or not is stupid and will fail more then not

How about self-voting?

i did

I mean, how successful is it at catching mafia?

I've caught MP as mafia with it before.

But it was more useful because I did it in a game where votes weren't changeable.

ika wrote:epi i hope you realize that the % chance of someone being scum is a constant number and that it never changes. in a 21p with 3 scums each player has a constant chance of about 4.76% chance of being scum. that number never changes no matter how many town and scum flip happen.

Well since it's Day 6, I won't be voting for birdwithteeth or Spacedaisy, so I prefer using Epignosis's numbers.

Let's make that spoiler readable.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Matt wrote:

Spoiler: show

Long Con wrote:

Matt wrote:#Illyismafialetsgether

That gets more and more believable as time goes on. Maybe I'll ISO her after Dom, should be faster.

Looking at the polls...

On Day 1...

BWT and DFaraday were at 7 and 5 votes, respectively, when Illy puts a throwaway vote on Black Rock. Both BWT and DF were civs, so I can see why she'd want to avoid voting either of those.

birdwithteeth11
7
Spacedaisy (8), Metalmarsh89 (10), DFaraday (11), Dom (13), Scotty (14), Nerolunar (15), Matt (19)
30%

DFaraday
5
Long Con (5), birdwithteeth11 (6), thellama73 (7), Silverwolf (9), sig (16)
22%

Black Rock
3
Epignosis (20), Illyria (21), DrWilgy (23)
13%

******

On Day 2, when both Bubbles and DFaraday had 4 votes a piece (they would eventually both end up with 5 votes a piece), Illy throws a lone single vote on Lorab. Again, both Bubbles and DF were civs, so why initiate suspicion on yourself by voting either of those?

Bubbles
5
Sorsha (10), Spacedaisy (12), Epignosis (13), Polo (15), thellama73 (17)
26%

DFaraday
5
Nerolunar (5), sig (8), Bubbles (9), Long Con (14), Matt (19)
26%

Lorab
1
Illyria (16)
5%

*****

Unfortunately, on Days 3 and 4, Illy didn't vote. Did she ever explain why?

*****

On Day 5, poor Nero gets lynched, and Illy is part of that train.

Nerolunar
6
Epignosis (3), Illyria (5), Black Rock (7), Long Con (8), Sorsha (10), LoRab (16)
30%

*****

There's no consistency here, either. Not that being consistent = civvie, but still, Black Rock on Day 1, Lorab on Day 2, Nero on Day 5.

Illy, are you no longer suspicious of Lorab? Or Black Rock?

Anyway, I haven't ISO'd her yet, but missing two votes, avoiding voting for civs on Days 1 and 2, and helping lynch Nero when siggy boy was a much better option on Day 5...

Hrm.

Oy Matt, are you saying that Black Rock and Lorab are not civs?