Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Nov 05, 2022 1:58 pm
Hokay. This is long.
......
G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 5:03 pm
Vanishing for most of the phase was not my intention. Here is a short version of what I have so far:
Several tiers based on participation-
Big Talk- Scotty, Sloonei, Golden coward, DH- I would be shocked if there wasn’t a baddie in that group. Maybe two, but lots of productive chatter for the most part.
Llama in a tier of his own, but I still feel loose llama is good llama.
VivAxe or Viv2.0, Eloh, Michelle, Quin- mixed bag here. Eloh was sussed yesterday, Viv2.0 is a reset and still murky on D1 NAA read, Michelle feels most ambiguous (her posts didn’t make any impression on me), and same goes for Quin. These folks are at radar-level. I need to ISO to see if I detected a skimmer.
Kate, sig, Bea, Wilgy- 1/2 seem off the table today and the sig is less memorable that Wilgy licking everything in sight. Under the radar crew- also need ISOs to find manufactured content.
G-Man, LoRab, DF- low posters. Not ideal to find myself in that camp that must be ‘dealt with’ before too long. I saw points about LR’s evasiveness but I’m not exactly one to harp on that without being a hypocrite just yet. DF… just needs to show up for the weekend and get some content before he becomes an afterthought to everything happening in the present.
I will try to speed read the day and make a vote after I get back from wife’s birthday dinner.
Too many null reads for me right now- not a good look. Need to get my head back in the game and sort out some townclears to help my poe.
“Big Talk- Scotty, Sloonei, Golden coward, DH- I would be shocked if there wasn’t a baddie in that group. Maybe two, but lots of productive chatter for the most part.”
This will become a recurring tinfoil for GMan: the “big posters” theory
Though can it be a tinfoil hat if he is the alien?
GMan is too tinfoily with this theory too consistently for it to be true. I HIGHLY doubt he does this and harps on there being 2 in the group of Me, Sloonei, Golden, DH if there actually is.
Fast forward to more recently:
G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:28 am
Vocal players are vocal. Here's my two cents:
-Scotty should be in everyone's towncore. His logic and non-emotional approach is what is needed to win the game. Fight me.
-DH's emotions got the better of him and I just don't see that coming from a baddie DH who wasn't cornered yet. S~V~S (*waves*) made a good point about how DH would use the baddie chat to vent. If you have a chat, that's where one vents to keep you from going all Johnny Fairplay with the AtE. I read DH as town and S~V~S gets a heaping portion of benefit of the doubt as a result. I haven't seen anything tricksy from her yet, and I've witnessed her tricksy firsthand before.
-I said a while back that there's got to be a baddie among the big talkers or else this game would harmonize. That leaves Sloonei and Golden. Since my efforts are already eliciting snickers and eyerolls, I suspect my name is the only real option on the chopping block today. That's fine. Take that and learn from it, but be sure to Thunderdome Sloonei and Golden at some point soon, because one of them has to be bad or this game is whack. Golden got a little emotional right back at DH Night 2, and Sloonei is the inverse- that sort of emotionless Spock thing.
All four of these folks are game-solving (which is what I was going for when I said supatown- don't get hung up on semantics), but there's gotta be a baddie in there. Weeding out Scotty and DH/S~V~S, and that pushes both Sloonei and Golden into the poe for Thunderdome.
Not the POE (because Towncore is apparently too strong a term for casual use):
-Bea
-DH/S~V~S
-Eloh
-Kate
-Scotty
-Sig
-VivAxe
POE:
-DF
-DrWilgy
-Golden the Coward
-Michelle
-Quin
-Sloonei
All names are in alphabetical order. I can parse through my notes in the morning to try to rank them in a more concrete fashion. Right now I need sleep
(and a new dehumidifier).
Do you see it? The subtle disillusionment and parsing of his big talker theory from Me/Golden/Sloonei/DH > Golden/Sloonei. Scotty (become obvtown), and DH (too emotional to be mafia) / SVS (not tricksy yet) are out of the POE
I’m about willing to say Golden and Sloonei look GREAT for this. Looking less good? DH/SVS for the exclusion.
--------
G-Man wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:32 pm
Vigorous day of ISO'ing ahead for me (but I have some work to do as well). I'm starting with the ISO's that are less extensive. Before I get to the first few, I'll be referencing this image for vote analysis, even though there isn't a whole lot to work with yet because of the D1 switch.
I'm working from the assumption that the baddies have not NK'd one of their own. Points have been made to rationalize the mafia's kill choices as safe plays. It also makes no sense from a baddie's perspective to diminish your ratio and extend the game so early on.
D1's switch got rid of the 3P, but it also robs us of taking a results-oriented look at the day. Everyone who received votes on D1 is still alive.
Random facts that I saw but don't mean anything yet: 1) three of the four D1 Sloonei voters are all now dead; 2) Quin & Sloonei are the only people whose votes match each other for both days.
I also made an old-school role poe chart, but I don't know if I should share it or if it will be too useful for the baddies as well.
Now then, on to some ISO's. I'm trying to formulate a town core without leaving too many people in the sus pile. Assuming 4 baddies in the game and 14 players left, my goal is to have a poe of no greater than six just because we don't have enough margin for error to consider too wide a poe pool.
BEA:
Overall, her ISO looks pretty good. A little lean on game-relevant content but she was easing back into things. Her worst post looks to be the one where she expressed dismay about not wanting to vote for any of the trains involved in a three-way tie at the time with what she thought was only 30 minutes to go, but her very next post may well be a townslip in which she realizes (via someone's response) that there was another 24 hours left on the poll. Could it be manufactured? Sure. But I don't know that baddies either 1) forget the poll deadline, or 2) try to fake that sort of slip. She spends D2 with letter weirdness but she jumped back into the game strong, showing that she didn't use the phase as a coasting opportunity. Good look there. The only curious thing that stands out to me otherwise is her habit of declaring the OG folks as being 'on point' for their years-ago meta. She used that phrase a few times when evaluating.
Votes: Missed D1, VivAxe D2 (@bea Why VivAxe again? Was it more Viv or more Axe? I don't see your vote declared in your ISO.)
DF:
Posts a promise-to-catch-up post at the end of N0, misses all of D1, has a right (imo) read on Eloh. Also cursed with switched vowels D2. Another promise post, and then a post in which he says that LoRab's tone reminds him of her past baddie tone and he votes for her. That's it. Four posts. @DFaraday Now that you are not cursed, can you point to a few of LoRab's posts that led you to the wrong conclusion about her tone meta? DF is about as inconclusive as it gets. With no real room for null reads at this point, I have to put him in my poe. It's not because I find him suspicious, but because I have no reason to townclear him based on his content thus far.
Votes: Missed D1, LoRab D2
DrWilgy:
He miss N0, which is neither here nor there. The lick thing was cute, but also ISO'ing reveals that it was inconsistent. His first few licks are for people he voted for. Then the licks seem to switch to take on a positive (?) connotation. @DrWilgy Can you please pause the goofiness to explain the licking thing? He makes a comment about Michelle being bad for not having solved things yet; I take this to be a joke. Otherwise it's a conspicuous break in his shtick. There's a lot of explaining what people tasted like when he licked them. I don't know what to make of his comments on how Eloh and Viv tasted. That was his D1. Nothing useful. D2 he seems to latch onto sig but then backtracks. Late in the day D2 he admits to having no conclusions on the game yet. He later seems to enjoy the tension and chaos of eod, but then wasn't keen on letting the moderator break the tie. If this were D2, I'd give Wilgy a null read, but this is D3 and the whimsical nature of his game so far hasn't been very productive. All those licks and he hasn't gotten to the center of a single player's Tootsie Pop yet to form a read? It's enough to leave me unable to townclear him.
Votes: Golden D1, Quin D2
Elohcin:
I still think the D1 sus of her was overblown at best and disingenuous at worst. I hope to source the origin of her train through these ISO's. She was sus of Vivax 1.0 and Sloonei. She continued to be sus of Sloonei D2, and there is the supposed townslip. Despite Sloonei sus, she turns her attention and vote to LoRab for her unhelpfulness and tone. Now she is OT Green for the day. @Elohcin What is the state of your Sloonei suspicion? I still feel good about her. Maybe her vote for LoRab could be read as advantageous, but I haven't seen the 'agreeable tell' like I think I remember.
Votes: Sloonei D1, LoRab D2
Kate:
She spends D1 sus on Scotty. This looks wrongheaded to me now, so I am curious if her read on him changed. @Kate What's your current opinion on Scotty? I feel ashamed to say that I don't remember Kate's playstyle at all. Perhaps it's just been that long. The level of sass took me by surprise, but we were a sassy bunch back in those days. She was OT Green for D2, but she got a few non-OT posts off at the start of the day. This makes me ponder if Kate had an OG townslip here. I understand the tinfoil theory about baddies OT'ing their own to buy them space, but it doesn't seem like Kate was suddenly in danger of falling onto the radar in a bad way. Also, if a baddie is OT'd, I don't think that they make the mistake of rattling off a few non-OT posts like that. The rest of D2 was lost to OT Green. N2 she comes in hot and mixes it up with a few people, DH the most. Overall, there seems to be a fair amount of culture clash and adjustment for Kate. Not surprising for a deep OG player. I can see the difficulty with how different the game is now being a talking point that a baddie could exploit, but her frustration seems genuine and I still doubt that a baddie goofs up on the OT bit at the start of the day. Not a lock, but that possible townslip is more than enough for me to keep her out of the poe.
Votes: Scotty D1, DH D2
GMan intends to condenses his POE down to 6, though vaguely just starts ISOing in alphabetical order. bea, DF, Wilgy, Elo, Kate.
Well we can outright write off bea and Kate, and
there’s no way in hell GMan would include all 3 of his teammates here in his POE in one post.
-His DF read was “inconclusive”, and in the POE not because he wants to, but because DF just isn’t giving him a choice.
-His Wilgy read was actually pretty fair and had some critical words about the lack of productivity and lack of desire to sink his teeth into the game. Can’t townclear…but also he doesn’t say that Wilgy is IN his POE like he did with DF. Just noting.
-This is the first time GMan has gone into detail about Elo suspicions and it’s a pretty civ leaning read. In a vacuum that could be suspicious, but I think looking at his posts so far, I think GMan just knows Elo is civ and hasn’t talked about her.
Listing DF as part of the POE and soft spanking Wilgy for not being productive, though not enough to expressly be part of the POE in the same post looks like GMan didn’t want to include both his teammates in the POE while still looking like he had some mean things to say. He DOES end up making those 2 the only ones in his POE, which does put a wrinkle. It is informative to know that GMan was not done with his reads, however, so having your only POE at the time of just your teammates isn’t out of the question if you’re going to continue filling it in.
G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 12:14 am
Various read on the other manageable ISO's:
Michelle:
Other than a handful of posts where she posts a stance on a few players with no supporting information, Michelle collects in-the-moment vote counts. I like vote analysis, but I'm not sure I've ever gone so far as to seek out that level of detail. This leaves her D1 as a mixed bag at best. She checks out for D2, which is suboptimal. It doesn't look like she's even shown up for D3 yet. Michelle is more like Mehchelle. There was RL travel, I get that, but she didn't leave much to chew on overall. Not worthy of a town read.
Votes: Eloh D1, Missed D2
NAA/Vivax 2.0:
NAA is a bit cryptic, holds his cards close to the vest, and is punchy-awkward. He stirs the pot and then claims rolefishing. I've grown used to just looking past NAA on D1's that I feel nothing from his ISO. Vivax 2.0, however, is a different story. While I am still trying to get a feel for this ne-to-me player, they're chugging along at their own pace and producing content. Their reads differ quite a bit from mine in places, but it's okay to live outside of an echo chamber in this game. Let's see where this one goes.
Votes: Eloh D1, Quin D2
Quin:
Yikes. His D1 saw him sussing Eloh and Scotty, who are both outside of my poe by a sizeable margin. After circling back to Eloh & Scotty a few times he zags and votes DH. Then there's a lot of posting without much flavor to it, but it's at least stirred some conversation. I'm leery that Quin is more than capable of keeping this kind of dancing around the radar as a baddie. His posts go in and out of focus almost as they need to. I'd say it's not strong enough to evade the poe yet.
Votes: Eloh D1, LoRab D2
Sig:
Sig's ISO feels a lot like Quin's ISO, except that I liked it more. Most of it feels authentic, though his voting record sucks and I agree that it's not comforting to see him appear willing to coast today due to his posting affliction. It's soft, but I'll nudge him up out of the poe.
Votes: sig D1, Missed D2
Running on fumes now, so let me get to the big talkers quick.
And continuing the ISOs in alphabetical order
-Michelle is “mehchelle” (lol) and isn’t worthy of a Townread
-Viv2.0 is still new to GMan, but “let’s see where this one goes”
-With Quin, he starts off with “Yikes” and ends with a softer “His posts go in and out of focus almost as they need to. I'd say it's not strong enough to evade the poe yet.”
-sig “feels a lot like” Quin. This is the second time GMan has made a read of sig and immediately equated his play to someone else (Michelle last). But sig looks better than Quin and isn’t in the POE. Curious.
This looks bad for Quin and not great for sig either
Lastly, I want to point to his last post about big talkers again. GMan routinely comes back to this big talkers steering the thread away from baddies. There’s a lot of WIFOM there, but note this progression in his last big post:
“DH's emotions got the better of him and I just don't see that coming from a baddie DH who wasn't cornered yet.”
>
“I said a while back that there's got to be a baddie among the big talkers or else this game would harmonize. That leaves Sloonei and Golden…one of them has to be bad or this game is whack.”
>
“Golden got a little emotional right back at DH Night 2”
>
“Weeding out Scotty and DH/S~V~S, and that pushes both Sloonei and Golden into the poe for Thunderdome.”
So DH gets a pass because he was over emotional, but when Golden got emotional, it’s just another Tuesday? Huh.
His final POE, expanded from just DF and Wilgy is:
POE:
-DF
-DrWilgy
-Golden the Coward
-Michelle
-Quin
-Sloonei
The constant insistence of the top talkers being suspect in Golden and Sloonei makes me feel like he’s sidestepping. It’s even weirder to continually lump DH/SVS in and out of that category, but exclude them from the POE.
I HIGHLY doubt GMan put all his teammates in his 6 person POE. Which makes me feel like at least one of sig/SVS are bad.
From my GMan observations:
-Sloonei, Golden, NAA/Vivax2.0 look great, Elo
-Michelle looks fine
-SVS/DH and sig are firmly compatible, and at least one of them is most likely bad
-2 of: DF, Quin and/or Wilgy are probably bad.
Just from these interactions alone, I could see a legit individual pairing of DF/Quin/Wilgy/DH or mix and match Quin/Wilgy with sig/SVS without yet looking into these player’s interactive ISOs with each other.